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2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

davearm said:
Interesting thoughts, thanks.

Hope you're right on Gillislee, I added him in a league last week where I had a "lotto ticket" spot open up when Sims hit IR.

I'm skeptical that a reliable, startable RB is going to emerge in OAK, WAS, or NYG all season long.  There isn't one on any of those three teams now, and none of those situations figure to clear up anytime soon.

Having said that, by definition a lotto ticket is a longshot to hit.
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My thoughts on Gillislee are still raw but i like him a lot. McCoy is looking like one of those RBs in a groove who just keeps cranking (like Zeke, Murray, Johnson, etc). So while i don't expect any legit timeshare value for Gillisllee anytime soon, i do think he has immediate Top12 Rb value IF anything happens to McCoy. He just has the full combo skill set i like in high level NFL RBs (minus elite shiftiness). In fact i may like his potential more than any other RB on the list, including Booker and Henry who i own. Sounds crazy i know but just IMO.

I do agree about the NYG, OAK, and WAS backfield clusters. WAS is the worst i think. NYG is interesting just because i think Perkins emerges as a talent in the next couple games and claims a role. OAK is still a toss up of course. I like JRichard but not sure he can carry a full load.

But lottery tickets are $1 bets to win $1 million!

 
Kenneth Farrow is the backup to Melvin Gordon down in San Diego and I don't see him mentioned very much or fostered very much. 

 
fffan21 said:
Kenneth Farrow is the backup to Melvin Gordon down in San Diego and I don't see him mentioned very much or fostered very much. 
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 I have mentioned him to no end in this thread and elsewhere.

 Sadly, it looks like its taken what may be a slight injury to Gordon for him to be focused on.

 (which I knew that anyway, but still)  To not give him any run to help spell Gordon is ridiculous.

 But then again,  THIS IS the San Diego Chargers we are talking about.

 TZM

 
A bump, added Rawls to the Potential Season Changers list and an update on Booker.

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN [Season Changer] - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up UPDATE: trend continued last night (Oct 13 v DEN) - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker
  • D. Williams PIT [Season Changer] - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL [Season Changer] - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • D. Henry  TEN  [Season Changer] - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here
  • K. Dixon  BAL - wasn't used much this past weekend but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value
  • S. Draughn  SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis?  Could it be one of those cases where the #3 is the actual Next Man Up when the starter goes down?
  • Ware KC - Belongs in this list?  Could produce Top 5 if Charles is out - yes?
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (not ranked):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL?
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production?
  • W. Smallwood PHI
  • Dion Lewis - see DJ Foster below
  • DJ Foster - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday Oct 9th (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
  • Farrow SDC
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy"
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier"
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
Too Late (the cat is outta the bag):

  • Howard CHI
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
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Daylight...this is a great resource. Keep it up.

In one league my RB situation is in a shambles. Outside of M. Ingram I'm constantly in scramble mode and depending on which way the wind is blowing I'm carrying as many as 5 or 6 of the guys on your list. For example:

* D. Booker -- Holding tight.

* D. Williams -- Holding tight, but it's tough.

* K. Dixon -- Starting to move down towards the drop list if I'm in a piinch.

* D. Washington (OAK) -- Keeping since I own bum L. Murray.

Recently dumped but looking for room:

* W. Smallwood

* D. Lewis

 
daylight said:
A bump, added Rawls to the Potential Season Changers list and an update on Booker.

Potential Season Changers - Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN [Season Changer] - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up UPDATE: trend continued last night (Oct 13 v DEN)
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First, I want to thank you for all you have contributed to the thread the last few weeks. This is one of my favorite discussion threads and you've had some great posts.

Snap count last night was CJA 57, Booker 15. The utilization was 10-5 in rushing attempts and 5-2 in targets. CJA was an effective receiver (his best runs were sprung from holding infractions), Booker looked explosive but whiffed on a block that led to a crucial sack. He didn't see the field again after his pass pro breakdown.

 
kyoun1e said:
Daylight...this is a great resource. Keep it up.

In one league my RB situation is in a shambles. Outside of M. Ingram I'm constantly in scramble mode and depending on which way the wind is blowing I'm carrying as many as 5 or 6 of the guys on your list. For example:

* D. Booker -- Holding tight.

* D. Williams -- Holding tight, but it's tough.

* K. Dixon -- Starting to move down towards the drop list if I'm in a piinch.

* D. Washington (OAK) -- Keeping since I own bum L. Murray.

Recently dumped but looking for room:

* W. Smallwood

* D. Lewis
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I've got Freeman-Ingram-Howard as starters and a flex, but don't feel secure for the stretch run by any means. Holding:

  • Dixon - drafted/cut/WW - getting twitchy on this one....might drop if he continues to look sluggish playing with the knee brace
  • Henry - drafted - nice COP but basically worthless in redraft; he's a top 5 if Murray goes down but you can't count on that
  • Duke Johnson - drafted - hold just to torture myself, because I don't want him on our wire, & he doesn't hold much value in trade discussions
  • Booker - WW - seems the most likely to be a stretch run contributor, great runner, but cannot miss in pass pro or they will never trust him
drops: Dwayne Washington, Vereen, DeAndre Washington (drafted)

18 x 12 league with 10 starters, so I'm probably holding a couple more tickets than most can afford

 
BobbyLayne said:
First, I want to thank you for all you have contributed to the thread the last few weeks. This is one of my favorite discussion threads and you've had some great posts.
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Agreed - daylight is the early front-runner for rookie poster of the year. That is, unless it's an old poster with a new username.  :football:

 
BobbyLayne said:
I've got Freeman-Ingram-Howard as starters and a flex, but don't feel secure for the stretch run by any means. Holding:

  • Dixon - drafted/cut/WW - getting twitchy on this one....might drop if he continues to look sluggish playing with the knee brace
  • Henry - drafted - nice COP but basically worthless in redraft; he's a top 5 if Murray goes down but you can't count on that
  • Duke Johnson - drafted - hold just to torture myself, because I don't want him on our wire, & he doesn't hold much value in trade discussions
  • Booker - WW - seems the most likely to be a stretch run contributor, great runner, but cannot miss in pass pro or they will never trust him
drops: Dwayne Washington, Vereen, DeAndre Washington (drafted)

18 x 12 league with 10 starters, so I'm probably holding a couple more tickets than most can afford
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You're gonna want to go get ol Swaggy Washington back in the fold (Dwayne).  Returned to practice, Riddick sat again.  Giddy up.

I'll direct everyone's attention to the Dwayne Washington thread now.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Snap count last night was CJA 57, Booker 15. The utilization was 10-5 in rushing attempts and 5-2 in targets. CJA was an effective receiver (his best runs were sprung from holding infractions), Booker looked explosive but whiffed on a block that led to a crucial sack. He didn't see the field again after his pass pro breakdown.
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Keep in mind when CJA got his yards.  He had 14 touches for 71 yards.  He got 7 touches and 56 yards in the 4th quarter.  By that point the score was 19-3.  The game was out of hand and SD was sitting back playing prevent.  So when the game actually mattered CJA got 15 yards to booker's 53 and they had the same amount of touches.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Snap count last night was CJA 57, Booker 15. The utilization was 10-5 in rushing attempts and 5-2 in targets. CJA was an effective receiver (his best runs were sprung from holding infractions), Booker looked explosive but whiffed on a block that led to a crucial sack. He didn't see the field again after his pass pro breakdown.
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skinsrule05 said:
Keep in mind when CJA got his yards.  He had 14 touches for 71 yards.  He got 7 touches and 56 yards in the 4th quarter.  By that point the score was 19-3.  The game was out of hand and SD was sitting back playing prevent.  So when the game actually mattered CJA got 15 yards to booker's 53 and they had the same amount of touches.
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I know this question might belong in the CJA or Booker thread but what is the explanation here?  Bloom stated after Week 2 in a podcast that CJA looked "fantastic".  What happened?  Wouldn't missing Donald Stephenson and Virgil Green for the past 2-3 games affect both players?  Do we suspect that CJA has some nagging injury that we are not privy to?

 
So L. Murray and T. Riddick ruled out.

I'm assuming for this week anyway D. Washington, the "other" D. Washington, and J. Richard move up the list.

This is fun.

 
I'll put anyone at this point who has been hurt in the lottery....Charles, Dion Lewis, Washington (DET)....if you can grab them "cheap" and roll the dice you might have gold down the stretch. Throw in Booker and Dixon....grab as many as you can if you can..Good luck

 
SanDawg said:
I'll put anyone at this point who has been hurt in the lottery....Charles, Dion Lewis, Washington (DET)....if you can grab them "cheap" and roll the dice you might have gold down the stretch. Throw in Booker and Dixon....grab as many as you can if you can..Good luck
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This is all about near term preemptive pickups - there is no preemptive element to Charles.  And IMHO no "buy low" either.  If I had him I would never sell low on him for another several weeks.

But your "anyone who is hurt" perspective does work in some cases - that is why I recently added Rawls to the bottom of the Potential Season Changes list.  Rawls sample size is infinitely smaller than Charles and is way more likely to have been dropped and available for preemptive pick up, hence his presence on the Potential Season Changes list (for example).

Good thoughts - leave no stone unturned!

 
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BobbyLayne said:
First, I want to thank you for all you have contributed to the thread the last few weeks. This is one of my favorite discussion threads and you've had some great posts.

Snap count last night was CJA 57, Booker 15. The utilization was 10-5 in rushing attempts and 5-2 in targets. CJA was an effective receiver (his best runs were sprung from holding infractions), Booker looked explosive but whiffed on a block that led to a crucial sack. He didn't see the field again after his pass pro breakdown.
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I disagree with the comment that Booker wiffed on pass protection assignment. He blocked to the center of the formation as did the other linemen. For Booker to have wiffed on the assignment he would have been trying to block but missed it, he wasn't trying to block the outside rusher at all, nor were the tackle or the guard. To me that seems like the protection call more than Booker missing his assignment. To wiff you have to actually be attempting to make the block.

The game flow was completely off because of SD controlling so much of the clock in the first half of the game and building a lead. So the snap count distribution was affected by this situation and a departure from what had been developing over the past couple weeks.

In regards to DJ Forster, I have said this a couple times already, but I disagree with people saying he looked great in the 4th preseason game. I do not think that is an accurate description of his play. He looked ok, not great. So basically the same as James White has been. There was nothing special about his on field performance. He did show some good deception on his pass protection fakes before releasing on those screen passes. I think people are over stating how good DJ Foster looked in a preseason game. He did not make defenders miss tackles or anything that should be described as positively as it has been.

 
A bump and moved K. Dixon from Potential Season Changers to Honorable Mentions - he didn't perform well Oct. 9th and I heard he was wearing a knee brace.

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up UPDATE: trend continued last night (Oct 13 v DEN) - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here
  • S. Draughn  SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis?  Could it be one of those cases where the #3 is the actual Next Man Up when the starter goes down?
  • Ware KC - Belongs in this list?  Could produce Top 5 if Charles is out - yes?
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL?
  • K. Dixon  BAL - wasn't used much his 1st week back but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production?
  • W. Smallwood PHI
  • Dion Lewis NE - see DJ Foster below
  • DJ Foster NE - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday Oct 9th (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
  • Farrow SDC
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy"
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier"
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • Howard CHI
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
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Fever in the Funkhouse said:
I just dropped Andre Ellington for rob Kelley as an end-of-bench flier. What are your thoughts on Ellington as an injury upside handcuff,with Chris Johnson out?
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Ellington had his chance to start a couple years ago and SUCKED! It will be a timeshare backfield Taylor,Williams and Ellington would all see carries in Arizona if Johnson got hurt. 

 
Crystalsteam99 said:
Ellington had his chance to start a couple years ago and SUCKED! It will be a timeshare backfield Taylor,Williams and Ellington would all see carries in Arizona if Johnson got hurt. 
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Does everyone feel this way about Ellington?  Bloom was very high on him during the pre-season pod casts last year.

 
daylight said:
Does everyone feel this way about Ellington?  Bloom was very high on him during the pre-season pod casts last year.
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He's a good RB and would definitely be startable if D. Johnson got hurt. If the question is would he get an absurd amount of volume in order to become a top 5-8 play each week - like DeAngelo and Hightower did last year - that is unlikely. But he has potential to break out 60+ yard runs that some of these other lotto tickets don't have. I don't view Kerwynn Wiliams as a threat as he is sort of the same back but worse. I don't view Taylor as a NFL player. He might vulture TDs (or Fitz/Floyd might get more) but he isn't a limit to Ellington's volume. I would feel better starting him than Powell or Draughn, but that's not necessarily an argument he deserves to be in the top list.

 
daylight said:
Does everyone feel this way about Ellington?  Bloom was very high on him during the pre-season pod casts last year.
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Arians would definitely prefer not to give Ellington a starter's load.  He's been ineffective and/or injured in that role in the past.

If Johnson goes down, the question will become if he has any alternative.

 
daylight said:
Does everyone feel this way about Ellington?  Bloom was very high on him during the pre-season pod casts last year.
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I wouldn't say Ellington sucked as he did have multiple 100 combined yard games when given the opportunity in 2014. He also had some high volume games where he didn't do much with it. He isn't cut out for starters carries over a full season, but he is capable of doing well for a handful of games. This is the case with a lot of RB. Ellington is a pretty good receiving option so if Johnson did miss time he wouldn't be game script dependent. I think he is a worthwhile handcuff for Johnson.

 
John Crockett?  James Starks is out.  All the Packers have listed on their depth chart is Lacy and Starks.  I'd imagine they'd make Crockett active in this game.

 
Braktastic said:
John Crockett?  James Starks is out.  All the Packers have listed on their depth chart is Lacy and Starks.  I'd imagine they'd make Crockett active in this game.
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He would definitely be a loooooooong shot lotto ticket. They would have to sign him first. FWIW, the Packers have a RB on their practice squad. They did not activate him. Lacy will get lots of carries. the FB Ripkowski will get some. And it is expected either WRs Cobb or Montgomery will get some time back there.

 
Bump with updates in red.  Edited for a Special update on Ware (and moved him to the "Too Late" list as if he is available in any league he's now a hot WW pickup.

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-6 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up, trend continued Oct 13 v DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: tonights game should be interesting (is Forte wearing down?) 
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here UPDATE: it was SF after all but a nice 6-60-1 line Oct 16
  • S. Draughn  SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis?  UPDATE FROM ROTOWORLD: thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. "
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? UPDATE: Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good??
  • K. Dixon  BAL - wasn't used much his 1st week back but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value UPDATE: looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? UPDATE: Zenner went 14-58-0 Oct 16 perhaps he is the Lotto Ticket in DET? UPDATE2: per @BobbyLayne: No. Yesterday was a desperation game plan - Bolding playing Ebron's role, Tate playing Riddick's role, Zenner was effective but he's the clear #3 behind Swaggy and Theo (#4 if AA ever comes back in 2016 but that seems unlikely.)
  • W. Smallwood PHI - UPDATE: 4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 and 3-75-0 receiving 
  • Dion Lewis NE - see DJ Foster below
  • DJ Foster NE - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday Oct 9th (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
  • Farrow SDC
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" UPDATE: used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" UPDATE: out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • Howard CHI
  • Ware KC - UPDATE: He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now and if available will be a hot WW pickup this week.
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
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daylight said:
  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up, trend continued Oct 13 v DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker Snap count was 57-15 last Thursday and he didn't see the field again after whiffing on a pass pro in the 4th that led to a crucial sack.
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here UPDATE: it was SFO after all but a nice 6-60-1 line Oct 16 Sorry what is SFO?
  • S. Draughn  SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis?  Could it be one of those cases where the #3 is the actual Next Man Up when the starter goes down? UPDATE: David out carried Draughn 5 to 1 + 3 targets - anyone have snap counts? Besides PFR, @Joe_Fann will also have these later today.
  • Ware KC - Belongs in this list?  Could produce Top 5 if Charles is out - yes? Needs an update here.
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? UPDATE: Zenner went 14-58-0 Oct 16 perhaps he is the Lotto Ticket in DET? No. Yesterday was a desperation game plan - Bolding playing Ebron's role, Tate playing Riddick's role, Zenner was effective but he's the clear #3 behind Swaggy and Theo (#4 if AA ever comes back in 2016 but that seems unlikely.)
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Great list, appreciate the good work; my thoughts in blue.

 
Edited the lists and moved Ware to the "Too Late" list since if he is available he is now a hot WW pickup and if already rostered is a must hold.

 
JFS171 said:
I'm not 100% sure Draughn would be the volume guy if Hyde were to be injured.  Mike Davis looked very good in preseason... may be a better fit for the every down role while Draughn's doesn't change much.
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Rotoworld:

Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.

When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff.
Click to expand...
 
 
Bump with updates in red.  Who are you guys picking up as stashes this week?

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-6 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up, trend continued Oct 13 v DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: the Jets looked inept Oct 17 - does Powell belong on this list?
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - Oct 16: it was SF after all but a nice 6-60-1 line
  • Mike Davis TE   FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good??
  • K. Dixon  BAL - wasn't used much his 1st week back but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? - Zenner went 14-58-0 Oct 16 perhaps he is the Lotto Ticket in DET?  per @BobbyLayne: No. Yesterday (Oct 16) was a desperation game plan - Boldin playing Ebron's role, Tate playing Riddick's role, Zenner was effective but he's the clear #3 behind Swaggy and Theo (#4 if AA ever comes back in 2016 but that seems unlikely.)
  • W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 and 3-75-0 receiving 
  • Dion Lewis NE - see DJ Foster below
  • DJ Foster NE - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday Oct 9th (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
  • Farrow SDC
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • Howard CHI
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now and if available will be a hot WW pickup this week.
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
Knile Davis - traded from Chiefs to Green Bay. Starks out for a period, and not much good when in this year. Lacy dinged up again. Not much else there. Kniles has shown he can run and receive. Does he now belong on this list?

 
Just to fan that Booker flame a little more, this was from Jeff Legwold from ESPN:

After practice today Gary Kubiak offered this on the run game and rookie running back Devontae Booker: "We've got to give Book some opportunities, he's doing some good stuff." And a couple minutes later Kubiak said: "When he's had the opportunities he's done some really good things. As a young player we're trying to get him going as far as protections and those type of things and he's starting to handle himself better. I think he deserves some more opportunities to touch the football. And when he's had the opportunity he's done some good things."
Click to expand...
Likely just coach speak, but not quite the coach speak I would want to hear if I was holding Anderson but not Booker. Sounds like we may be headed towards a full blown committee.

 
grabnmcbutt said:
Knile Davis - traded from Chiefs to Green Bay. Starks out for a period, and not much good when in this year. Lacy dinged up again. Not much else there. Kniles has shown he can run and receive. Does he now belong on this list?
Click to expand...
As a Packers Homer I can say that the entire offense looks out of sync.  I wouldn't consider any starting back on my Beloved Pack to be more than a RB2 with upside - definitely not a Potential Season Changer.  But that's just my opinion.  It is interesting that a team that makes few and far between Free Agent signings and near zero trades actually traded for a RB.  Ted Thompson must see something there to make such a move.

What are folks opinions of K. Davis?

 
Where do we see Ajayi? He got dropped in a league of mine and I'm thinking about dropping my whole fab.

 
daylight said:
Bump with updates in red.  Who are you guys picking up as stashes this week?

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-6 list, loosely ranked:

  • D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up, trend continued Oct 13 v DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: the Jets looked inept Oct 17 - does Powell belong on this list?
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - Oct 16: it was SF after all but a nice 6-60-1 line
  • Mike Davis TE   FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good??
  • K. Dixon  BAL - wasn't used much his 1st week back but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? - Zenner went 14-58-0 Oct 16 perhaps he is the Lotto Ticket in DET?  per @BobbyLayne: No. Yesterday (Oct 16) was a desperation game plan - Boldin playing Ebron's role, Tate playing Riddick's role, Zenner was effective but he's the clear #3 behind Swaggy and Theo (#4 if AA ever comes back in 2016 but that seems unlikely.)
  • W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 and 3-75-0 receiving 
  • Dion Lewis NE - see DJ Foster below
  • DJ Foster NE - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday Oct 9th (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
  • Farrow SDC
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • Howard CHI
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now and if available will be a hot WW pickup this week.
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings
Click to expand...
Thinking of dumping Powell for Knile Davis or Asiata.....where do they fall on this list?

 
Ilov80s said:
Where do we see Ajayi? He got dropped in a league of mine and I'm thinking about dropping my whole fab.
Click to expand...
just posted this in the week 7 wire thread, this schedule alone would say he's not likely to hit. He has two good matchups, BYE and @SD. Plus the whole workload thing.

BUF, BYE, NYJ, @SD, @LAR, SF, @BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF

:yucky:

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
just posted this in the week 7 wire thread, this schedule alone would say he's not likely to hit. He has two good matchups, BYE and @SD. Plus the whole workload thing.

BUF, BYE, NYJ, @SD, @LAR, SF, @BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF

:yucky:
Click to expand...
wth you talking about, SF is awful vs the run and LAR isn't special. The Jets are in shambles.

Looks about average to me

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
wth you talking about, SF is awful vs the run and LAR isn't special. The Jets are in shambles.

Looks about average to me
Click to expand...
u're right on SF, but respectfully disagree on Rams and the Jets. Ajayi is not special talent and his workload remains to be seen whether it stays as high as it was last weekend. Rams only gave up big yards to Shady, I think they did a good job against DJ. Jets gave up big yards to DJ, but held pretty much everyone else in check.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
just posted this in the week 7 wire thread, this schedule alone would say he's not likely to hit. He has two good matchups, BYE and @SD. Plus the whole workload thing.

BUF, BYE, NYJ, @SD, @LAR, SF, @BAL, ARI, @NYJ, @BUF

:yucky:
Click to expand...
The schedule is ok IMO. I'm more concerned about the team falling behind in games and having to get away from the run game. It's unlikely Ajayi is really involved in the passing game. On the other hand, he leads the league in average yards after contact, running backs are tough to find and the track record for RBs with 200 yard games is pretty good. It was the first game all year the entire starting OL played together. They have 4 first rounders on that line so it has talent.My thought is if every year you get 1 or 2 shots to fire a big shot. Ajayi seems like as a well positioned bet.

 
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