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2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

The guy that has me most intrigued is Damien Williams-- not that he's an elite talent-- but he certainly has earned the #2 role and Gase's trust. He's being used more (15% jump in snaps last two weeks) and Ajayi isn't exactly the most likely candidate to stay healthy. As I look up and down my waiver wire-- so many of these backup rbs in places like Oakland, SF, Philly, etc., etc., look to be in huge RBBC messes if the starter were to go down. Gase likes to play one dude-- and they clearly don't trust Drake. Williams fresh legs behind that OL could be something
I agree Williams definitely belongs on this list, although the current health of the Miami OL is cause for concern.  Williams has value certainly as a handcuff to Ajayi, but even in his current role, he has some deep flex value.

 
A narrative may be developing that adds support for A. Abdullah as a potential FF playoff contributor...

Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions



Ameer Abdullah (foot, I.R.) will visit Dr. Robert Anderson on Tuesday to see if he can start practicing.
If he gets the green light from Dr. Anderson, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said it's "realistic" that he could be activated within three weeks. That would put Abdullah on track to return sometime during the fantasy playoffs. He would likely resume his role as the early-down hammer with Theo Riddick getting most of the passing-down work. Abdullah was giving fantasy owners RB2 production prior to his injury.

 
 
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twittter
Nov 20 - 9:56 AM


Jim Caldwell - C - Lions



The Detroit Free Press' Dave Birkett believes a "late-season collapse" could cost Lions coach Jim Caldwell his job.
The Lions are currently tied for first in the NFC North, but they are only 5-4 and have trailed in the fourth quarter of every game this season. Even with a favorable schedule, it would be difficult to call anything that happens from this point on a collapse considering they are lucky to have five wins. Still, Detroit is in good position to nab a playoff spot, and anything less would be a minor disappointment, one that could feasibly cost Caldwell his job.

 
 
Source: Detroit Free Press
Nov 19 - 12:13 PM


Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions



The Lions have yet to designate a player to return from injured reserve, leaving open the possibility Ameer Abdullah (foot) plays again this season.
It looked likely LB Jon Bostic would get the IR/return spot after he was seen working off to the side of practice a couple weeks ago, but he has yet to be activated. Abdullah is reportedly "making good progress" after injuring his foot Week 2 against the Titans. It still seems unlikely Abdullah returns in time to help fantasy owners, but he could be a boost for the Lions if they are able to hold on for a playoff spot.

 
 
Source: detroitlions.com
Nov 19 - 11:13 AM


Theo Riddick - RB - Lions



Theo Riddick (ankle) is listed as questionable for Week 11.
Not buying this anymore. Riddick will be all systems go versus the Jags.

 
 
 
Nov 18 - 4:07 PM


Theo Riddick - RB - Lions



Theo Riddick (ankle) remained limited at Thursday's practice.
The Lions are just managing Riddick's reps. He's logged at least 15 touches in every game but one this year. Riddick will be an RB2 against Jacksonville in Week 11.

 
 
Source: Tim Twentyman on Twitter
Nov 17 - 4:08 PM


Theo Riddick - RB - Lions



Theo Riddick (ankle) was limited at Wednesday's practice.
Coming off the Lions' bye, Riddick should be fine for Week 11. He's averaged 97 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns over his last three games. Consider him an RB2 against Jacksonville this week.

 
 
Source: Dave Birkett on Twitter
Nov 16 - 4:24 PM


Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions



Ameer Abdullah (foot, IR) is "making good progress."
Abdullah has been doing some non-football activity but isn't fully cleared. He’s eligible to return next week, but it’s possible he’ll be shut down for the season. The Lions haven’t provided any updates on Abdullah’s status since Week 2.

 
 
Source: Justin Rogers on Twitter
Nov 12 - 6:20 PM


...as is always the case, the RW comments must be taken for what they are...RW.

 
Update to narrative:

Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions



ESPN's Michael Rothstein reports "everything went well" at Ameer Abdullah's (foot, IR) Tuesday checkup.
It puts Abdullah on track to be cleared for practice. Abdullah is looking like a strong candidate for Detroit's IR/return spot. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport says it's "realistic" Abdullah could be activated within three weeks.

 
Who is the better IR stash ADP or Ameer?
Redraft for this season?  Swng for the fences with AP.  Ameer will be in a muddy committee even if he returns.

Dynasty, easily Abdullah.  AP didnt look like solid rb1 material when healthy, and has a short shelf life, while Ameer has time and room to improve.

 
Who is the better IR stash ADP or Ameer?
I have been in the Ameer camp for both redraft and dynasty...and still am.  However, I am a McKinnon fan/owner (though it has been tough the past few weeks) and may be biased.  

Latest updates on the two from RR:

Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions



NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Ameer Abdullah's (injured reserve) foot is "structurally sound."
This is just another confirmation Abdullah's visit with a foot specialist earlier this week went well. It is not inconceivable Abdullah returns to practice next week with the intent to play sometime in the next couple games. Abdullah is a better injury stash than Adrian Peterson (knee, injured reserve).



 


Adrian Peterson - RB - Vikings



NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Adrian Peterson (knee, injured reserve) has yet to be cleared to run.
Peterson is reportedly running with just 30 percent of his bodyweight on his knee and has a couple more hurdles to jump before he is cleared to run on a field. Rapoport says it is still realistic for Peterson to return before the end of the season, but this news puts the Week 15 timetable in serious doubt. It is unlikely Peterson is able to help fantasy owners again this season.

 

 
Redraft for this season?  Swng for the fences with AP.  Ameer will be in a muddy committee even if he returns.

Dynasty, easily Abdullah.  AP didnt look like solid rb1 material when healthy, and has a short shelf life, while Ameer has time and room to improve.
As noted in my previous post, I am voting for Ameer.  I am rebuilding my dynasty team and have been forced to use Washington and Zenner of DET and McKinnon of MIN as an RB2 some weeks.  Neither situation has been beneficial to my win % (which in my case is not bad, since I am rebuilding, but I am putting forth my best lineup every week.)  

Regardless, I believe both situations are a muddy committee, and do not expect either Abdullah or Peterson to change that when/if they return.  However, I do concede that Peterson has the better chance of the two to get featured back touches...but MIN is also a historically bad run offense right now.  Therefore, I believe Ameer would provide the better FF #'s...plus, he appears to be much closer to returning right now.

EDIT: Also wanted to add...re: "swinging for the fences"...in my scoring system AA put up great numbers this year before he was injured, while AD's #'s were no better than McKinnon's.

 
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Sat Nov 26 Bump - with this week's updates in red - also:  moved D Lewis and T Rawls to the "Too Late" list

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-11 list, loosely ranked:

  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible UPDATE:  Martin is back 
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities 
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30 @Pigskin Fanatic recently posted " re: ADP, fwiw, an article posted on CBS on 11/1 stated he is "not ready to start running." to go from that to playing in a game on Thanksgiving in 24 days? i believe in the miracle of modern medicine, but this seems like an awful lot to ask of a knee. if i had roster space, though, I would grab him in the off chance he plays in December for fantasy playoffs." - - - - - UPDATE:  saw a news report that AP is running using "30% of his body weight" UPDATE 2 (thanks to @Pigskin Fanatic Week 15 return at the earliest
  • Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO...  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171 moved him to the Potential list UPDATE:  SD signed Ronnie Hillman - a RB that IMO does nothing himself except reduce the value of the #1's backup  
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) Knee surgery - out 2-6 weeks UPDATE: is Toussaint the RB to target here (for the next few weeks)?
  • W. Smallwood PHI -   UPDATE: moved him from the Honorables to Potentials based on @Chaka and @Long Ball Larry 's recent posts
  • Damien Williams MIA - ton of RB usage by Gase - thanks  @packer_junkie
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball  Has played more the last couple of weeks but has not surpassed Jennings
  • K. Carey CHI - 
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  • Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck - and per @Mr. Irrelevant "(or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)"
  • Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 
On The Radar

  • James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  • Joique Bell?
  • Mike Davis - FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS
  • Toussaint PIT
  • C Michael GB - I saw a news report that C Mike claims to know enough of the playbook now to make a "significant" contribution week 12
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • Dion Lewis NE - 
  • Rawls SEA - 
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: decent production Oct 30 in place of McCoy - moved him to the Too Late list as he should be rostered in all leagues following the week 8 game UPDATE: out for week 12 - who is the backup to McCoy now?
  • D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker -
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  • Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot UPDATE: Questionable for week 12
  • Howard CHI -
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - RBBC going forward?
  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - started last 2 games and put up decent numbers
  • Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
Dropable

  • Don Jackson GB
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
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Should probably bump Smallwood even if he is likely to be rostered in most leagues.  Matthews in officially out for MNF and Doug Pederson acknowledged that he is dealing with a "pretty significant knee" injury which "could linger".

 
Should probably bump Smallwood even if he is likely to be rostered in most leagues.  Matthews in officially out for MNF and Doug Pederson acknowledged that he is dealing with a "pretty significant knee" injury which "could linger".
Good call.  Only rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues, fWIW.

Sproles also dealing with a rib injury, though he practiced on Thursday, and I think Pederson will be reducing his role to keep him fresher.

On the downside, RT Vaitai did have a knee injury in last week's game that looked like a problem, though he also practiced on Thursday.

 
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On AP from CBS:

Peterson (knee) has progressed to the point that he's running on an underwater treadmill, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.

Typically, a repair on a torn lateral meniscus is accompanied by a 3-to-4 month recovery timetable. If his incredible healing powers coincide with a return on the early end, Peterson's rehab will be complete just two days before a road test against the Packers on Christmas Eve. He has a number of hurdles to surpass, though. At the moment, he's running on 30 percent of his weight on a submerged treadmill, which he'll slowly but surely increase. Once he approaches his body weight in that realm, he'll proceed to running in normal conditions in order to see how his right knee reacts. If there are any setbacks, the Vikings will scale back Peterson's workload. Otherwise, he'll set his sights on a return in Week 16 or 17.
Taking this at face value (yes, it's CBS, so not suggesting u do lol), AP not rosterable for redraft this year imo. Christmas is week 15, would u take a chance on him on ur starting lineup that week or week 16 if u're in the running at that point? tough call, i wouldn't.

the article says week 15 (Christmas) would be ahead of schedule. Possible clearance at week 16 if you want to buy and hold for next year though.

edit: just noticed the quoted article is actually a repost on CBS from RW.

 
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On AP from CBS:

Taking this at face value (yes, it's CBS, so not suggesting u do lol), AP not rosterable for redraft this year imo. Christmas is week 15, would u take a chance on him on ur starting lineup that week or week 16 if u're in the running at that point? tough call, i wouldn't.

the article says week 15 (Christmas) would be ahead of schedule. Possible clearance at week 16 if you want to buy and hold for next year though.

edit: just noticed the quoted article is actually a repost on CBS from RW.
Make and update note on AP - thanks @Pigskin Fanatic

 
Tue Dec 01 Updates in red

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-12 list, loosely ranked:

  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible UPDATE:  Martin is back 
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities 
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30 @Pigskin Fanatic recently posted " re: ADP, fwiw, an article posted on CBS on 11/1 stated he is "not ready to start running." to go from that to playing in a game on Thanksgiving in 24 days? i believe in the miracle of modern medicine, but this seems like an awful lot to ask of a knee. if i had roster space, though, I would grab him in the off chance he plays in December for fantasy playoffs." - - - - - UPDATE:  saw a news report that AP is running using "30% of his body weight" UPDATE 2 (thanks to @Pigskin Fanatic Week 15 return at the earliest
  • Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO...  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171 moved him to the Potential list Note:  SD signed Ronnie Hillman 
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) Knee surgery - out 2-6 weeks UPDATE: might be active week 13?
  • Damien Williams MIA - ton of RB usage by Gase - thanks  @packer_junkie
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball  Has played more the last couple of weeks but has not surpassed Jennings
  • K. Carey CHI - 
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  • Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck - and per @Mr. Irrelevant "(or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)"
  • Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 
On The Radar

  • James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  • Joique Bell?
  • Mike Davis - FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS
  • Toussaint PIT
  • C Michael GB - 
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • W. Smallwood PHI -   UPDATE: moved him to Too Late as he should be rostered in all formats at this point
  • Dion Lewis NE - 
  • Rawls SEA - 
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: decent production Oct 30 in place of McCoy - moved him to the Too Late list as he should be rostered in all leagues following the week 8 game UPDATE: could be active for week 13
  • D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker -
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  • Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot UPDATE: could be active for week 13
  • Howard CHI -
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - RBBC going forward?
  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - started last 2 games and put up decent numbers
  • Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
Dropable

  • Don Jackson GB
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
Thoughts on Vereen practicing this week? I'm thinking if healthy he immediately passes Perkins and could quite possibly cut into Jennings touches.

 
Tue Dec 01 Updates in red

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.
Where would you put Shane Vereen?  It appears he will be back very soon. Thanks!

 
Bumping this for any suggestions for possible waiver wire RBs that could be good value for next year. In our league we can keep up to 3 players at last year's auction value +$8. If you pick up a free agent this season he can be kept at $5. Are there any possible RBs whose role might change either because of free-agency for them or a player ahead of them on the depth chart. I'd like to get a jump on them this week and perhaps it could help others in keeper leagues as well.

I'm thinking of players like Benny Cunningham who looked good in the preseason and is a free agent next year. Depending on where he signs could be good value. Maybe Paul Perkins if they commit to him as the starter next year.

 

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