2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

[gabes1919]

Just thought I'd mention his name: Ameer Abdullah.

Conflicting reports at the time of his injury, he's either done for the year or ready around week 10. It's worth noting, Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good. Just keep your ears perked up for him.

 

[daylight]

Just thought I'd mention his name: Ameer Abdullah.

Conflicting reports at the time of his injury, he's either done for the year or ready around week 10. It's worth noting, Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good. Just keep your ears perked up for him.

Added to the bottom of the Honorables list - thanks @gabes1919!

 

[Nero]

Sadly, I have a couple redraft teams where my RB situation is so bad, I'm still holding onto CJ Prosise.  I thought he would carve out a large role in Seattle's offense.  He hasn't been available, but I'm still holding out hope.

Started him today, perfect matchup. Happy with the results.

 

[mnmplayer]

Bump West. Ware might not play week9. Here is what West did as the starter last season (green box). West 2015 Stats. Scored 22,23,32 as the starter for KC last season. Would be a no brainer week9 start vs JAGS during a tight bye week if Ware is still in concussion protocol. Depending on Ware's severity could have long term value and is definitely someone who should be on a roster. 

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Bump West. Ware might not play week9. Here is what West did as the starter last season (green box). West 2015 Stats. Scored 22,23,32 as the starter for KC last season. Would be a no brainer week9 start vs JAGS during a tight bye week if Ware is still in concussion protocol. Depending on Ware's severity could have long term value and is definitely someone who should be on a roster. 

Not to mention Jamaal is meeting with a specialist again this week.

 

[BigBlue_RI]

Melvin Gordon's 10 touchdowns this year have all come in the red zone, and he has 36 red zone touches after having just 13 red zone touches in 2015

 http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/columnists/kevin-acee/sd-sp-acee-1028-story.html

Another bullet point for volume and potential for Farrow.

I think I might need to handcuff Gordon this week. Shame on me if I didn't learn from losing CJ without having Booker on my roster.

 

[JFS171]

Probably should be adding Antoine Smith as well... I could never figure out why Atlanta didn't use him more back in the day when he was busting a long run every 5-10 touches.  But, Smith knows Koetter's system, and maybe that's all that's needed right now with how well Atlanta is running the ball.  Rodgers came off the street and took over after Sims was lost for the year -- and he was a clear workhorse.  Now Quizz is going to miss this week - how bad his injury is is really anyone's guess.  We've heard foot injury, which doesn't sound that great.  Sims is on IR... who knows when Martin returns.  That leaves Smith, Barber, and Russell Hansbrough.  Koetter seems to prefer using a lead back as opposed to a committee, so guessing right here could pay dividends.

I'll be curious to see the snap counts, but Smith had 2 targets and 4 carries in the game to 1 carry for Barber.  From the play-by-play, it appears that Smith got the only 2 RB touches in OT after Rodgers left the game.

 

[MNTom]

Probably should be adding Antoine Smith as well... I could never figure out why Atlanta didn't use him more back in the day when he was busting a long run every 5-10 touches.  But, Smith knows Koetter's system, and maybe that's all that's needed right now with how well Atlanta is running the ball.  Rodgers came off the street and took over after Sims was lost for the year -- and he was a clear workhorse.  Now Quizz is going to miss this week - how bad his injury is is really anyone's guess.  We've heard foot injury, which doesn't sound that great.  Sims is on IR... who knows when Martin returns.  That leaves Smith, Barber, and Russell Hansbrough.  Koetter seems to prefer using a lead back as opposed to a committee, so guessing right here could pay dividends.

I'll be curious to see the snap counts, but Smith had 2 targets and 4 carries in the game to 1 carry for Barber.  From the play-by-play, it appears that Smith got the only 2 RB touches in OT after Rodgers left the game.

Smith outsnapped Barber 22 to 3 against the Raiders.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5643/antone-smith

 

[One]

Best guess for Adrian Peterson? A return in December

"Eligible to return to action from Injured Reserve in Week 11 (November 20), the best guess from within the walls of the organization is that he’ll play again in December."

 

[daylight]

Tue Nov 01 Bump with updates in red. 

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-8 list, loosely ranked:

• Dion Lewis NE - practicing this week?  May be Too Late soon
  
• Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible and that he thinks J Rodgers cannot hold up on a 25-35 touch per game pace NOV 01 UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot - who will start in 2 days (this Thursday):  Barber or A Smith?
  
• D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  
• D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  
• A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  
• A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30
  
• M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: decent production Oct 30 in place of McCoy - I plan to move him to the Too Late list as he should be rostered in all leagues after this weeks FF WW
  
• Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him UPDATE: is CJ Procise a factor now?  RBBC?
  
• Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO.  If Gordon goes down, McCluster isn't taking over the workhorse role.  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171 moved him to the Potential list
  
• B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: decent game Oct 30th
  

Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

• Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good?? UPDATE:  decent game Oct 30th (started)
  
• K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  
• Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  
• W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 
  
• A. Ellington ARZ
  
• Malcolm Brown STL
  
• DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  
• Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  
• Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance? Looked good Oct 23, how long can McAdoo stick with Jennings?  Bloom said this week he thought Jennings looked "done" UPDATE:  coming out of the bye with NYG use him more?
  
• Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket UPDATE: 100+ yards Oct 30 in place of a benched Ingram
  
• Don Jackson GB - running with the 1's in practice Oct 19th -  hand not broken - I'm leaving him on this list based on the big unknown alone UPDATE: hardly used Oct 30 but then again the Pack hardly ran
  
• K. Carey CHI -  Bloom said last week he doesn't think Carey is very good but there could be volume here UPDATE:  Howard exploded Oct 31- apparently he is Fox's "hot hand"
  
• Howard CHI - UPDATE:  Howard exploded Oct 31- apparently he is Fox's "hot hand" - I moved him back to the Honorables list in case he was dropped last week
  
• Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  
• Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck
  
• Mike Davis - FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  
• C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  
• James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  
• Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 
  
• A Smith TBB ? UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot - who will start in 2 days (this Thursday):  Barber or A Smith?
  

Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

• D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker - CJ has a knee issue and may be out multiple weeks, if you don't have him now it is probably Too Late
  
• Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  
• Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  
• J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot
  

Dropable

• Knile Davis GB - UPDATE: the Pack cut him!?!? 
  

P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 

[daylight]

What are the thoughts on who will start Thurs. - A Smith or P Barber for TBB?

 

[JFS171]

What are the thoughts on who will start Thurs. - A Smith or P Barber for TBB?

This:

Probably should be adding Antoine Smith as well... I could never figure out why Atlanta didn't use him more back in the day when he was busting a long run every 5-10 touches.  But, Smith knows Koetter's system, and maybe that's all that's needed right now with how well Atlanta is running the ball.  Rodgers came off the street and took over after Sims was lost for the year -- and he was a clear workhorse.  Now Quizz is going to miss this week - how bad his injury is is really anyone's guess.  We've heard foot injury, which doesn't sound that great.  Sims is on IR... who knows when Martin returns.  That leaves Smith, Barber, and Russell Hansbrough.  Koetter seems to prefer using a lead back as opposed to a committee, so guessing right here could pay dividends.

I'll be curious to see the snap counts, but Smith had 2 targets and 4 carries in the game to 1 carry for Barber.  From the play-by-play, it appears that Smith got the only 2 RB touches in OT after Rodgers left the game.

Smith outsnapped Barber 22 to 3 against the Raiders.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5643/antone-smith

 

[packer_junkie]

Just a feeling Dixon or Perkins comes out of the bye as a lead dog in baltimore or NYG? No basis other than the other guys aren't that good.... 

 

[Cheesedawg]

AP has been held by his owner in my league all season, so he isn't an option for me to pick up.  BUT, might want to slow down the AP train a little bit FWIW: 

(RotoWire) Although Peterson has started rehab for his knee injury, he is not ready to start running. "It's still going to be a while before it's safe for him to run," Vikings athletic trainer Eric Sugarman told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "Sometimes it's our job to protect them from themselves so he doesn't do too much too soon."

Analysis: Peterson had surgery in late September to repair a torn meniscus, which usually requires 3-to-4 months of recovery. It sounds like he's making progress and there's some hope he can return this season, but it's too early to guess at a specific timetable.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Just a feeling Dixon or Perkins comes out of the bye as a lead dog in baltimore or NYG? No basis other than the other guys aren't that good.... 

Harbaugh mentioned last week that he wanted to get Dixon involved more. That was coming after his 1 carry in week 7. So it shouldn't be difficult to get him more involved based on those touches.

I have the same feelings about Perkins. He has been the only RB that has impressed me to this point. At some point they have to wake up and give the kid a shot. Especially since they keep trying to run and aren't good at it, unless Perkins has the ball.

 

[daylight]

Is Howard CHI fools gold?

 

[JFS171]

So I got distracted Sunday and didn't end up handcuffing Ware like I should have, which made me start thinking through the mandatory handcuffs again...

Mandatory (Situation or Backup Talent Too Great to Ignore):
Dallas - Alfred Morris
Tennessee - Derrick Henry
Pittsburgh -- DeAngelo Williams (when healthy -- is he?)
Kansas City - Charcandrick West (as long as Charles isn't Charles)
Buffalo - Mike Gillislee
San Diego - Kenneth Farrow
Denver - Kapri Bibbs (or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)
Seattle - Thomas Rawls (if healthy -- if not, Alex Collins and Prosise likely form some committee)
Saints - Tim Hightower (Ingram owners are enraged, but apparently Payton will ride Hightower when he plays)
Bucs - I think it's Antone Smith, but could be Peyton Barber... Quizz may be done, and who knows when Martin returns.  Either way, Koetter is riding the RB really hard.

Consider Handcuffing:
Arizona - Andre Ellington (not sure he'd get the workload if Johnson is out, but situation is great)
NY Jets - Bilal Powell (Jets are just so bad... could be argued he belongs in the higher tier)
Houston - Alfred Blue (I thought Tyler Ervin would be the handcuff here but it's clearly Blue, and he's looked better than I ever remember him looking -- Miller's workload is huge)
Carolina - Cameron Artis-Payne (Carolina running much more in the red zone with the backs, and CAP is Stewart's direct backup)
Los Angeles - Malcolm Brown (I think Brown's got talent, but he'd be in a committee with Cunningham cause Jeff Fisher gonna Jeff Fisher)
Miami - Damien Williams (Dolphins OL has been legit lately, and if they're committed to the run and Ajayi goes down...)
Indianapolis - I guess Turbin?  Ferguson hasn't done much... if Gore goes down, Luck's throwing 50 times per game
Oakland - DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard (keep cancelling each other out, and Murray's getting all he can handle until he breaks again)
Green Bay - Aaron Ripkowski?  might be the closest thing to a handcuff they have right now (Starks likely owned)
Detroit - Dwayne Washington (going down with the ship here, but if Riddick goes down, Washington's a better fit for that role than Zenner or Forsett)... it may not matter though, or he could be as good as I think he can be.

Safe to Ignore:
Patriots - Dion Lewis returning, White and Blount owned... not much clarity beyond that
Bengals - Committee now with all parts owned...
Giants - Maybe Perkins gets the gig, or maybe it stays a mess of a committee
Eagles - Smallwood is a dart throw for the stretch run, but four way backfields are a mess
Bears - Maybe it's Carey, maybe it's Langford, or maybe it doesn't matter...
Redskins - Committee with everyone owned (probably)
Vikings - OL is so awful it doesn't matter (McKinnon and Asiata and probably Peterson all owned anyway)
Falcons - Freeman and Coleman are owned... Terron Ward and Stevan Ridley don't excite.
49ers - Team is so bad it doesn't matter, plus there's no clarity on who's next (hot hand week-to-week)
Ravens - Maybe there's hope for Dixon, but he's not a handcuff... ZoBot is a dart throw behind West
Browns - Who cares?  Committee now and Crowell/Johnson should be owned
Jaguars - Who cares?  Seriously... avoid.


Thoughts?

 

[DocHolliday]

Is Howard CHI fools gold?

I certainly do not know what Fox is going to do with his RBs but Howard looked very good last night.  He should at least get the majority of touches for awhile. 

 

[davearm]

FWIW, Duke Johnson is a guy that might be getting dropped for a bye week filler.  Saw it happen in one of my leagues.

He definitely belongs on this list if he's available.  Mildly useful as a flex guy as-is, with handcuff upside on a team that clearly wants to run.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

So I got distracted Sunday and didn't end up handcuffing Ware like I should have, which made me start thinking through the mandatory handcuffs again...

Mandatory (Situation or Backup Talent Too Great to Ignore):
Dallas - Alfred Morris
Tennessee - Derrick Henry
Pittsburgh -- DeAngelo Williams (when healthy -- is he?)
Kansas City - Charcandrick West (as long as Charles isn't Charles)
Buffalo - Mike Gillislee
San Diego - Kenneth Farrow
Denver - Kapri Bibbs (or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)
Seattle - Thomas Rawls (if healthy -- if not, Alex Collins and Prosise likely form some committee)
Saints - Tim Hightower (Ingram owners are enraged, but apparently Payton will ride Hightower when he plays)
Bucs - I think it's Antone Smith, but could be Peyton Barber... Quizz may be done, and who knows when Martin returns.  Either way, Koetter is riding the RB really hard.

Love the list, thanks for putting together. Only point I would make is that if you have any doubts about who the handcuff is going to be, it's definitely not a "mandatory" handcuff. Benches in basically every FF league are too short to waste 3 spots on a single team's RB production when there are so many other upside plays out there.

Of the list above I'd really only consider D-Will, Morris, Henry, and Rawls (if healthy) "mandatory" as they've both shown that they can produce when called on and don't have an obvious 3rd option waiting in the wings.

 

[The Dude]

With a new OC in Jax - I think there is a chance Ivory or Yeldon becomes relevant

 

[RenegadeRoy]

With a new OC in Jax - I think there is a chance Ivory or Yeldon becomes relevant

Maybe? I imagine the new OCs job is to get the ball to their best player by any means necessary (aka ARob)

 

[Tommy Collins]

Probably should be adding Antoine Smith as well... I could never figure out why Atlanta didn't use him more back in the day when he was busting a long run every 5-10 touches.  But, Smith knows Koetter's system, and maybe that's all that's needed right now with how well Atlanta is running the ball.  Rodgers came off the street and took over after Sims was lost for the year -- and he was a clear workhorse.  Now Quizz is going to miss this week - how bad his injury is is really anyone's guess.  We've heard foot injury, which doesn't sound that great.  Sims is on IR... who knows when Martin returns.  That leaves Smith, Barber, and Russell Hansbrough.  Koetter seems to prefer using a lead back as opposed to a committee, so guessing right here could pay dividends.

I'll be curious to see the snap counts, but Smith had 2 targets and 4 carries in the game to 1 carry for Barber.  From the play-by-play, it appears that Smith got the only 2 RB touches in OT after Rodgers left the game.

It seemed that the guy to get was Smith, but I also read that he fumbled the ball in OT? Apparently it was recovered by the team, but that type of stuff can prove to be costly in terms of playing time.

 

[JFS171]

Koetter is now saying they'll form a committee in Tampa... so, gonna take some guts to play any of them. 

Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter alluded to using a committee approach at running back. "When you have three guys who have been here short-term, other than Peyton [Barber], your roles aren't very clearly defined right now. We'll try to patch it together one week at a time until we get some reinforcements back."

My guess is we see Smith get the first chance... he got the snaps last week, and the touches.  Barber is definitely built more like a short yardage guy, so it would make sense to see him in that role while Smith gets the chance to be the lead back.  Whether Smith runs with the gig is anyone's guess.  I think Hansbrough and James are just depth in case they have yet another guy get hurt.

 

[hamsterdam]

Koetter is now saying they'll form a committee in Tampa... so, gonna take some guts to play any of them. 

My guess is we see Smith get the first chance... he got the snaps last week, and the touches.  Barber is definitely built more like a short yardage guy, so it would make sense to see him in that role while Smith gets the chance to be the lead back.  Whether Smith runs with the gig is anyone's guess.  I think Hansbrough and James are just depth in case they have yet another guy get hurt.

FWIW I'm a Bucs fan, and I would try and get Barber if I had a choice. 

The Bucs see at least a little something in Barber, as he is the reason that James was let go in the first place.

As far as last game, the reason Smith got first crack is because the Bucs were basically in a shoot out and the game script called for a pass catcher. Also, Rodgers injury came pretty late in the game so it could have just been the CS kind of winging it in a sense.

I personally think Smith was signed off his couch to fulfill a 3rd down / pass-catching Sims role next to Quizz, who was in the Dougie role. Barber goes into that slot with Smith retaining his position. I do think Smith will get more looks than he normally would if Quizz didn't get injured.

I'm actually kind of glad all the hype is on Smith right now, so it's easier to land Barber. If Barber happens to start and puts together a nice series with some good runs, I wouldn't be surprised if they ride him with the "hot hand."

This is all speculation and I could be wrong as always, but thought I'd chime in with my thoughts as a fan.

 

[mnmplayer]

Is Howard CHI fools gold?

3 100 yard games (150 vs Minn) in 5 starts. Rated as a top3 pure runner out of college and seems competent catching football. Aside from one game vs TEN and one vs GB, sch looks very easy after bye. Carey/Langford were both active last night and its pretty clear what happened. Nuff said.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

FWIW I'm a Bucs fan, and I would try and get Barber if I had a choice. 

The Bucs see at least a little something in Barber, as he is the reason that James was let go in the first place.

As far as last game, the reason Smith got first crack is because the Bucs were basically in a shoot out and the game script called for a pass catcher. Also, Rodgers injury came pretty late in the game so it could have just been the CS kind of winging it in a sense.

I personally think Smith was signed off his couch to fulfill a 3rd down / pass-catching Sims role next to Quizz, who was in the Dougie role. Barber goes into that slot with Smith retaining his position. I do think Smith will get more looks than he normally would if Quizz didn't get injured.

I'm actually kind of glad all the hype is on Smith right now, so it's easier to land Barber. If Barber happens to start and puts together a nice series with some good runs, I wouldn't be surprised if they ride him with the "hot hand."

This is all speculation and I could be wrong as always, but thought I'd chime in with my thoughts as a fan.

Just for this week I'd say Smith will get more touches as the ATL game should lean to the shootout side again. Give a little to the revenge game narrative.

Mainly because he only needs 1 break 1 play, which he has a knack for breaking, to have a decent game

 

[hamsterdam]

Just for this week I'd say Smith will get more touches as the ATL game should lean to the shootout side again. Give a little to the revenge game narrative.

Mainly because he only needs 1 break 1 play, which he has a knack for breaking, to have a decent game

While I agree with this, I do think the Bucs will try everything in their power to establish a run game in the beginning, which equals Barber in my book.

Keep in mind Smith was on the Falcons with Koetter when their run game was in shambles with an aging Stevie Jackson and I believe Quizz, ironically. He was breaking off long TDs off of a few touches every couple of games and they still never gave him a shot. May not be worth much but I think it could be telling. 

 

[mnmplayer]

Consider Handcuffing:
Carolina - Cameron Artis-Payne (Carolina running much more in the red zone with the backs, and CAP is Stewart's direct backup) (avoid because this position splits GL carries with QB)
Oakland - DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard (keep cancelling each other out, and Murray's getting all he can handle until he breaks again) (avoid unless multiple injuries occur, need at least two)
Green Bay - Aaron Ripkowski?  might be the closest thing to a handcuff they have right now (Starks likely owned) (Avoid. Lacy was #43 RB when he went down, RB4, Its Ty, then Cobb then Adams at RB and all are rostered)
Detroit - Dwayne Washington (going down with the ship here, but if Riddick goes down, Washington's a better fit for that role than Zenner or Forsett)... it may not matter though, or he could be as good as I think he can be. (Avoid - the best you could hope for is a time split in an offense that doesn't have a lot of opps for RBs. AA might be coming back anyway, so you need two injuries)

Safe to Ignore:
Patriots - Dion Lewis returning, White and Blount owned... not much clarity beyond that (I wouldn't ignore in PPR. If he comes back healthy he is the man. If you have an IR spot use it on Lewis.)
Ravens - Maybe there's hope for Dixon, but he's not a handcuff... ZoBot is a dart throw behind West (Dixon is a good stash if he can get healthy, has skills to take over even without injury)
Jaguars - Who cares?  Seriously... avoid. (there is a longshot that new coaching will hitch their wagon to Yeldon in PPR. This situation should be monitored for at least a week, not ignored, but likely nothing will happen)

Nice list. I think you nailed most of the obvious ones. I had a few nit picky comments.

This thread is probably one of the most useful in the shark pool this season so thanks to everyone for your input.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

While I agree with this, I do think the Bucs will try everything in their power to establish a run game in the beginning, which equals Barber in my book.

Keep in mind Smith was on the Falcons with Koetter when their run game was in shambles with an aging Stevie Jackson and I believe Quizz, ironically. He was breaking off long TDs off of a few touches every couple of games and they still never gave him a shot. May not be worth much but I think it could be telling. 

True. Both fair points 

 

[Chaka]

Maybe? I imagine the new OCs job is to get the ball to their best player by any means necessary (aka ARob)

Robinson is getting 10 targets already, not sure there is much room for increasing that much. But it would be nice to see his efficiency improve.

Yeldon has been outperforming Ivory across the board which isn't saying much but he has also been inconsistently used and the Jags desperately need to get more balance on offense. I don't see a fantasy season saving star in Yeldon but he is only getting 12 touches per game so there is room for a significant increase in usage.

 

[btemp]

FWIW I'm a Bucs fan, and I would try and get Barber if I had a choice. 

The Bucs see at least a little something in Barber, as he is the reason that James was let go in the first place.

As far as last game, the reason Smith got first crack is because the Bucs were basically in a shoot out and the game script called for a pass catcher. Also, Rodgers injury came pretty late in the game so it could have just been the CS kind of winging it in a sense.

I personally think Smith was signed off his couch to fulfill a 3rd down / pass-catching Sims role next to Quizz, who was in the Dougie role. Barber goes into that slot with Smith retaining his position. I do think Smith will get more looks than he normally would if Quizz didn't get injured.

I'm actually kind of glad all the hype is on Smith right now, so it's easier to land Barber. If Barber happens to start and puts together a nice series with some good runs, I wouldn't be surprised if they ride him with the "hot hand."

This is all speculation and I could be wrong as always, but thought I'd chime in with my thoughts as a fan.

Not true, James was released with an injury settlement.  He outperformed Barber prior to his injury and I heard he would've kept that roster spot.  And Barber went to the PS, not the active roster.

Smith is a gadget player - he did not look like an RB to trust last Sunday.  

Until Rodgers & Martin come back, I think James takes the job. Not this Thursday, but next week.  Remember, he was with the team last year and this preseason.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

Not true, James was released with an injury settlement.  He outperformed Barber prior to his injury and I heard he would've kept that roster spot.  And Barber went to the PS, not the active roster.

Smith is a gadget player - he did not look like an RB to trust last Sunday.  

Until Rodgers & Martin come back, I think James takes the job. Not this Thursday, but next week.  Remember, he was with the team last year and this preseason.

Nice post. Def something to keep in mind for next week 

 

[ryno1980]

With a new OC in Jax - I think there is a chance Ivory or Yeldon becomes relevant

Is the new OC going to fix the O-line?

 

[need2know]

Thoughts on prosise?

 

[hamsterdam]

Not true, James was released with an injury settlement.  He outperformed Barber prior to his injury and I heard he would've kept that roster spot.  And Barber went to the PS, not the active roster.

Smith is a gadget player - he did not look like an RB to trust last Sunday.  

Until Rodgers & Martin come back, I think James takes the job. Not this Thursday, but next week.  Remember, he was with the team last year and this preseason.

Everything I heard said Barber was chosen and kept over James. If they kept him, he would have also been a PS guy.

We'll see how things shake out but I disagree and I think James was a warm body signing and will be a non factor.

 

[SkippaDaFlippa]

Rotoworld:

The Patriots are hoping to have Dion Lewis (knee, PUP) back for Week 10 against the Seahawks.
Lewis may have been able to play this week had New England not been on bye. He resumed practicing last Thursday and looks set to resume his role as the Patriots' passing-down back. Lewis hasn't played an NFL game in almost a year after undergoing two knee surgeries. Lewis shouldn't put much of a dent in LeGarrette Blount's workload, though it could make James White a non-factor.

It's Happening. The Kingmaker is set to return. Grab now before it's too late.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Thoughts on prosise?

Carroll seems to like him, and if he keeps impressing I think he has a legit shot at being a nice PPR (and possibly standard) FLEX. I don't think Rawls returning, whenever that is, will effect him that much. I also see Wilson's improving health as a good thing for a pass catching back like Prosise. For the list in this thread I'd stick him in the high "honorable mention" section or the bottom of the "potential game changer" section. 

 

[btemp]

Everything I heard said Barber was chosen and kept over James. If they kept him, he would have also been a PS guy.

We'll see how things shake out but I disagree and I think James was a warm body signing and will be a non factor.

But that's not what happened. Barber went to the PS and James was on the 53.  He was then released with an injury settlement and Barber was promoted. 

 

[hamsterdam]

But that's not what happened. Barber went to the PS and James was on the 53.  He was then released with an injury settlement and Barber was promoted. 

After looking into it more, you're right, it does seem like James was the 3rd string back when they released him due to the injury.

Was there a clause that made him ineligible for the Bucs to pick up? It's odd that they chose to pick up Quizz instead of him, when it seems like they chose James over Quizz when he had a workout with the Bucs during the offseason.

Then James gets signed by the Lions and the Bucs pick up Smith off of his couch and it looks like only the Quizz injury prompted the Bucs to pick him up. 

 

[Sarlakticacid]

After looking into it more, you're right, it does seem like James was the 3rd string back when they released him due to the injury.

Was there a clause that made him ineligible for the Bucs to pick up? It's odd that they chose to pick up Quizz instead of him, when it seems like they chose James over Quizz when he had a workout with the Bucs during the offseason.

Then James gets signed by the Lions and the Bucs pick up Smith off of his couch and it looks like only the Quizz injury prompted the Bucs to pick him up. 

From JF171 posted in another thread:

Here's the tricky part about injury settlements... and I caught onto this from a Pro Football Talk article I read this morning:

Running back Mike James made the Buccaneers’ initial 53-man roster before being waived/injured before the season opener and eventually released with an injury settlement. He spent time with the Lions practice squad earlier this month, but recently became eligible to return to the Buccaneers and, per multiple reports, that’s exactly what he will do.

So that got me digging into the Injury Settlement rules for the NFL -- turns out, like you'd expect, it's rather complicated. 

There is a rule in place that the team (agreeing to a settlement) can’t resign that player until a minimum of six weeks passes following the amount of weeks of the initial settlement. So for our MCL example, the team cannot resign that player for the first eleven weeks. For a player who did a three week/3 game settlement, his team can’t sign him back until after week nine. However, the player is free to sign with another team.

So... let's review James' situation.  He made the team as the 3rd RB behind Martin and Sims (Barber was cut; Quizz was with Chicago) despite missing the last couple of weeks of camp due to injury.  On September 7th, James was "Waived/Injured" meaning he would revert to IR if he cleared waivers. On September 8th, he was placed on IR.  On September 14th, he was released with an injury settlement.  Per the rules, he couldn't resign with Tampa until 6 weeks after that injury settlement.  September 14th was just ahead of Week 2, which even if we assumed their settlement only covered through Week 2, he couldn't return to Tampa until after Week 8, which just so happened to be Sunday's game.  So, when first able to bring him back, Tampa resigned James, who originally made their team as the 3rd RB, despite missing the last couple of weeks of camp.

Weirdly enough --

Greg AumanVerified account ‏@gregauman Nov 1

A little post-Halloween spooky for you: New Bucs RB Mike James had career day in 2013 with 158 yards vs. Seattle. The date? Nov. 3.

 

[BigBlue_RI]

I picked up Smith as a swing for the fence with David Johnson on bye. I just couldn't feel good about rolling out TJ Yeldon. I hope this talk about Mike James turns out to be nothing.

 

[the spanker]

I picked up Smith as a swing for the fence with David Johnson on bye. I just couldn't feel good about rolling out TJ Yeldon. I hope this talk about Mike James turns out to be nothing.

Might not be a bad idea to roster both.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

Now news Henry might get a larger - major role this week


i got Smith vs Henry

ARRRGGH decisions

 

[TZMarkie]

 If he in fact sits this week, (and they win again)  it wouldn't shock me if they held him out until week 11, after their week 10 bye.

This would give him an extended time to heal, and the Bills sitting at 5-2 (if they win Sunday)  wouldn't necessarily need him to rush back. It would also allow them the extra time to  let him heal up and focus on the softer late season schedule. (they have New England and Seattle in weeks 8-9) The schedule then gets much easier.

 You never know, but a win this week would make me think there is no need to rush him back just yet. Its not like they would be out of it at 5-2.

 TZM

 I was scared and thinking this may happen, and pretty much called this above.

 I think the fact they tried to "put him out there" and he seemed to get re-injured, made them stop and say "WTF were we thinking, we need to make sure we try and get him healed".

 They didn't win again , and are currently sitting at 4-4.  But they do have a few easy matchups after their bye week.

Word came out this week that Rex Ryan said he is "hopeful LeSean McCoy (hamstring) will be able to practice on Thursday ".

This may be true, but I don't believe for a minute that they fully intend on running him out there full bore, unless he is somehow magically 100% again, which I doubt. Its looking more and more like this is a scenario where he will be limited at best, and I am not looking at starting him regardless. If he practices in full the next 2 days, then I may reconsider, but this is most assuredly a case of "limited" if he does indeed practice.

If Buffalo trots him out there again this week, (unless he is looking absolutely no question 100%) I just don't see how they can "chance it" after stupidly playing him before when he wasn't quite ready. If they do, there is every chance he could be injured for  a long time/4-6 weeks, hurting his chances to be fully healthy  for a possible playoff run. I just don't see how Buffalo could make the same mistake again.

 I'm making other plans for my teams, and I suggest owners do the same.  Try and find an alternate plan this week, and hopefully they do the smart thing and rest him so we can possibly have a 100% McCoy coming off the bye to help us for a playoff run.

I just can't bring myself to trust this situation, even if McCoy starts or is listed as "the starter".

 TZM

 

[Gandalf]

Carroll seems to like him, and if he keeps impressing I think he has a legit shot at being a nice PPR (and possibly standard) FLEX. I don't think Rawls returning, whenever that is, will effect him that much. I also see Wilson's improving health as a good thing for a pass catching back like Prosise. For the list in this thread I'd stick him in the high "honorable mention" section or the bottom of the "potential game changer" section. 

I was about to post on Prosise.  He has a role now and I could see this being the type of situation where he plays himself into the starting job at some point in the next 1-2 years.  He's much more than your typical 3rd down back.

 

[daylight]

Fri Nov 04 Bump with this week's updates in red. 

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-8 list, loosely ranked:

• Dion Lewis NE - practicing this week?  May be Too Late soon
  
• Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible and that he thinks J Rodgers cannot hold up on a 25-35 touch per game pace NOV 01 UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot - who will start in 2 days (this Thursday):  Barber or A Smith?  NOV 04 UPDATE:  Barber got the start in the Thur Nov 03 game. UPDATE FRI NOV 4 5PM ET: A Smith could be out for the season (link in subsequent post)
  
• D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  
• D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  
• A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  
• A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30
  
• Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him UPDATE: is CJ Procise a factor now?  RBBC?
  
• Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO.  If Gordon goes down, McCluster isn't taking over the workhorse role.  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171 moved him to the Potential list
  
• B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: decent game Oct 30th
  

Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

• Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good?? UPDATE:  decent game Oct 30th (started)
  
• K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  
• Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  
• W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 
  
• A. Ellington ARZ
  
• Malcolm Brown STL
  
• DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  
• Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  
• Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance? Looked good Oct 23, how long can McAdoo stick with Jennings?  Bloom said this week he thought Jennings looked "done" UPDATE:  coming out of the bye with NYG use him more?
  
• Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket UPDATE: 100+ yards Oct 30 in place of a benched Ingram
  
• Don Jackson GB - running with the 1's in practice Oct 19th -  hand not broken - I'm leaving him on this list based on the big unknown alone UPDATE: hardly used Oct 30 but then again the Pack hardly ran
  
• K. Carey CHI -  Bloom said last week he doesn't think Carey is very good but there could be volume here UPDATE:  Howard exploded Oct 31- apparently he is Fox's "hot hand"
  
• Howard CHI - UPDATE:  Howard exploded Oct 31- apparently he is Fox's "hot hand" - I moved him back to the Honorables list in case he was dropped last week
  
• Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  
• Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck - and per @Mr. Irrelevant "(or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)"
  
• Mike Davis - FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  
• C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS UPDATE:  Ware is concussed and not practicing this week
  
• Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 
  
• A Smith TBB ? UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot - who will start in 2 days (this Thursday):  Barber or A Smith?  UPDATE:  Barber got the start
  
• Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
  

On The Radar

• James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  
• Joique Bell "to sign with GB on Monday"
  

Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

• M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: decent production Oct 30 in place of McCoy - moved him to the Too Late list as he should be rostered in all leagues following the week 8 game
  
• D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker -
  
• Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  
• Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  
• J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot
  

Dropable

• Knile Davis GB - UPDATE: the Pack cut him!?!? 
  

P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 

[daylight]

So I got distracted Sunday and didn't end up handcuffing Ware like I should have, which made me start thinking through the mandatory handcuffs again...

Mandatory (Situation or Backup Talent Too Great to Ignore):
Dallas - Alfred Morris
Tennessee - Derrick Henry
Pittsburgh -- DeAngelo Williams (when healthy -- is he?)
Kansas City - Charcandrick West (as long as Charles isn't Charles)
Buffalo - Mike Gillislee
San Diego - Kenneth Farrow
Denver - Kapri Bibbs (or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)
Seattle - Thomas Rawls (if healthy -- if not, Alex Collins and Prosise likely form some committee)
Saints - Tim Hightower (Ingram owners are enraged, but apparently Payton will ride Hightower when he plays)
Bucs - I think it's Antone Smith, but could be Peyton Barber... Quizz may be done, and who knows when Martin returns.  Either way, Koetter is riding the RB really hard.

Consider Handcuffing:
Arizona - Andre Ellington (not sure he'd get the workload if Johnson is out, but situation is great)
NY Jets - Bilal Powell (Jets are just so bad... could be argued he belongs in the higher tier)
Houston - Alfred Blue (I thought Tyler Ervin would be the handcuff here but it's clearly Blue, and he's looked better than I ever remember him looking -- Miller's workload is huge)
Carolina - Cameron Artis-Payne (Carolina running much more in the red zone with the backs, and CAP is Stewart's direct backup)
Los Angeles - Malcolm Brown (I think Brown's got talent, but he'd be in a committee with Cunningham cause Jeff Fisher gonna Jeff Fisher)
Miami - Damien Williams (Dolphins OL has been legit lately, and if they're committed to the run and Ajayi goes down...)
Indianapolis - I guess Turbin?  Ferguson hasn't done much... if Gore goes down, Luck's throwing 50 times per game
Oakland - DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard (keep cancelling each other out, and Murray's getting all he can handle until he breaks again)
Green Bay - Aaron Ripkowski?  might be the closest thing to a handcuff they have right now (Starks likely owned)
Detroit - Dwayne Washington (going down with the ship here, but if Riddick goes down, Washington's a better fit for that role than Zenner or Forsett)... it may not matter though, or he could be as good as I think he can be.

Safe to Ignore:
Patriots - Dion Lewis returning, White and Blount owned... not much clarity beyond that
Bengals - Committee now with all parts owned...
Giants - Maybe Perkins gets the gig, or maybe it stays a mess of a committee
Eagles - Smallwood is a dart throw for the stretch run, but four way backfields are a mess
Bears - Maybe it's Carey, maybe it's Langford, or maybe it doesn't matter...
Redskins - Committee with everyone owned (probably)
Vikings - OL is so awful it doesn't matter (McKinnon and Asiata and probably Peterson all owned anyway)
Falcons - Freeman and Coleman are owned... Terron Ward and Stevan Ridley don't excite.
49ers - Team is so bad it doesn't matter, plus there's no clarity on who's next (hot hand week-to-week)
Ravens - Maybe there's hope for Dixon, but he's not a handcuff... ZoBot is a dart throw behind West
Browns - Who cares?  Committee now and Crowell/Johnson should be owned
Jaguars - Who cares?  Seriously... avoid.


Thoughts?

Hey @JFS171 great list.  I was thinking of re-writing my list based on yours however upon further reflection I see them as slightly different.  Plenty of overlap for sure but yours is from a "handcuff" perspective and mine is from a "lotto" perspective.  In fact, I think it deserves it's own thread although I am not by any means suggesting it does not belong here.  I'd rather have it here so I only have to follow one thread LOL.  I'd love it if you could update your list 1x per week as I think the (however large or small) contrast would be beneficial to all.

 

[robb]

"A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30"

The last I heard on Peterson was he could come back on November 23, Week 11, before Thanksgiving. Is this wrong or just conflicting with what is stated here? I have him on IR and am thinking of activating him next week.

 

[One]

"A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30"

The last I heard on Peterson was he could come back on November 23, Week 11, before Thanksgiving. Is this wrong or just conflicting with what is stated here? I have him on IR and am thinking of activating him next week.

I would definitely wait.  Someone mentioned on here that a trainer says he has yet to resume running.