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2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)

Consider Handcuffing:
Carolina - Cameron Artis-Payne (Carolina running much more in the red zone with the backs, and CAP is Stewart's direct backup) (avoid because this position splits GL carries with QB)
Oakland - DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard (keep cancelling each other out, and Murray's getting all he can handle until he breaks again) (avoid unless multiple injuries occur, need at least two)
Green Bay - Aaron Ripkowski?  might be the closest thing to a handcuff they have right now (Starks likely owned) (Avoid. Lacy was #43 RB when he went down, RB4, Its Ty, then Cobb then Adams at RB and all are rostered)
Detroit - Dwayne Washington (going down with the ship here, but if Riddick goes down, Washington's a better fit for that role than Zenner or Forsett)... it may not matter though, or he could be as good as I think he can be. (Avoid - the best you could hope for is a time split in an offense that doesn't have a lot of opps for RBs. AA might be coming back anyway, so you need two injuries)

Safe to Ignore:
Patriots - Dion Lewis returning, White and Blount owned... not much clarity beyond that (I wouldn't ignore in PPR. If he comes back healthy he is the man. If you have an IR spot use it on Lewis.)
Ravens - Maybe there's hope for Dixon, but he's not a handcuff... ZoBot is a dart throw behind West (Dixon is a good stash if he can get healthy, has skills to take over even without injury)
Jaguars - Who cares?  Seriously... avoid. (there is a longshot that new coaching will hitch their wagon to Yeldon in PPR. This situation should be monitored for at least a week, not ignored, but likely nothing will happen)
Nice list. I think you nailed most of the obvious ones. I had a few nit picky comments.

This thread is probably one of the most useful in the shark pool this season so thanks to everyone for your input. :thumbup:
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@mnmplayer thanks for the comments... my responses below:

Carolina - Stewart has run for back-to-back 2 TD games, with Cam in the lineup.  Since missing a game with his concussion, Cam hasn't been running nearly as much at the goal line.

Oakland - fair point... would need some dominoes to fall, but Washington and Richard are both talented

Green Bay - I believe someone is going to have value here as a complement to Montgomery, though maybe I'm crazy... Ripkowski, Don Jackson, Starks... someone

Detroit - still like Washington's talent... still believe in the opportunity, and he's the best pass-catching RB on that roster behind Riddick

Patriots - I've argued throughout this thread that Lewis should be on rosters... my point was there's no reason to handcuff Gaffney

Ravens - maybe so... guess we'll see with Dixon... idk how healthy he is

Jags - not for me.  I'm out on this one.

 
daylight said:
Rick Stroud just tweeted " RB Antone Smith and DE Howard Jones suffered season ending knee injuries. "

https://twitter.com/NFLSTROUD
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Well I just cut him in all my leagues to keep speculating, but I will probably grab Mike James behind Barber here... didn't think Barber was that impressive last night, and the stats reflect that.  11 for 31, and only 1 catch till Smith tore up his knee on the last drive of the game.  James signed three days before and was getting some work already, and was trusted earlier in the game with some passing down work.  I think he complements Barber right away, and Barber better get it in gear or James may take the role outright.

 
Keep an eye on Perkins tomorrow coming out of the bye. Seems like a matter of when, not if, he's going to get a longer look despite the cluster there.

 
BigBlue_RI said:
I think time has come I snatch this guy up. I own Gordon and was already burned by not trading for Booker early in the season. Left me with a big hole in my lineup when CJ Anderson went down. 
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McCluster just broke his arm...On IR!

Run, don't walk...I just picked him up too! If Gordon was to go down...He'd be getting 15 plus touches a game. And the way Chargers are falling like flies...it's only a matter of time.

 
thehoch said:
McCluster just broke his arm...On IR!

Run, don't walk...I just picked him up too! If Gordon was to go down...He'd be getting 15 plus touches a game. And the way Chargers are falling like flies...it's only a matter of time.
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I agree with thehoch.   I was big on acquiring Farrow when I could over the last few weeks if you have been following this thread. I snagged him last week after I had a bad bye week situation in my biggest league, and just nabbed him in another league I own Gordon.

 I only own Gordon in one other league, and I am loaded there....trying to figure out a way to get him in that league as well.

I think we can expect solid RB2-ish numbers, in the event of a Gordon injury.

 TZM

 
thehoch said:
McCluster just broke his arm...On IR!

Run, don't walk...I just picked him up too! If Gordon was to go down...He'd be getting 15 plus touches a game. And the way Chargers are falling like flies...it's only a matter of time.
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I did it right after my post earlier today.

 
KingPrawn said:
Joique Bell is expected to sign with Green Bay on Monday according to Ian Rappaport twitter
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Not a lotto ticket.  He furthers muddies an already cloudy situation.

Should probably remove Starks from the Lotto ticket list as well.

 
Chaka said:
Not a lotto ticket.  He furthers muddies an already cloudy situation.

Should probably remove Starks from the Lotto ticket list as well.
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Created a new "On the Radar" sub-list and put Starks and J Bell there.

 
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Todem said:
In dynasty leagues CJ Prosise may prove to be a major HR. In redraft he can be had as a flier in the 15th or 16th round and just sit and wait.

This kid has real deal talent. Super soft hands, glides, has great agility, great 3 down back size, good speed. If Rawls falters....this will be your guy in Seattle IMO.

Not the engima and forever pre-season All-Pro known as C-Mike.
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This ticket may start to yield some nice payoff to those that sat on him in dynasty and those that picked him up off waivers in redraft.

He could be a nice weekly flex player in PPR if he keeps making the most of his chances.

 
Redskins coach Jay Gruden considers Rob Kelley the team's early-down back coming off the team's bye week.
Gruden said Kelley will handle the "bulk" of the carries, and that Matt Jones will "have to earn his way back." Jones is returning from a knee issue, but has also been highly inconsistent while continuing to struggle with ball security. Jones probably won't be completely abandoned, but Kelley should have a clear touch advantage against the Vikings' tough run defense. He'll be on the RB2/3 borderline for Week 10.
 
What is everyones thoughts regarding Arizona? I know we have discussed this some earlier? Is there anymore clarity? I feel like DJ could be the next guy to get banged up as his workload is so much higher than its ever been (college/pro)... But is ellington the immediate cuff? Or is he just a change of pace guy still?

 
packer_junkie said:
What is everyones thoughts regarding Arizona? I know we have discussed this some earlier? Is there anymore clarity? I feel like DJ could be the next guy to get banged up as his workload is so much higher than its ever been (college/pro)... But is ellington the immediate cuff? Or is he just a change of pace guy still?
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I have no idea. I imagine it would be a committee with Taylor/Williams splitting early carries and Ellington as the CoP. However, DJ has is obviously far superior to these options, and I've seen him break more than a few plays this year that any other RB on the roster wouldn't have.

 
May not matter at all as Frank Gore seems like the ageless one, but who would even get the work in Indy if Gore goes down?  Turbin?

 
re: ADP, fwiw, an article posted on CBS on 11/1 stated he is "not ready to start running." to go from that to playing in a game on Thanksgiving in 24 days? i believe in the miracle of modern medicine, but this seems like an awful lot to ask of a knee. if i had roster space, though, I would grab him in the off chance he plays in December for fantasy playoffs.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
re: ADP, fwiw, an article posted on CBS on 11/1 stated he is "not ready to start running." to go from that to playing in a game on Thanksgiving in 24 days? i believe in the miracle of modern medicine, but this seems like an awful lot to ask of a knee. if i had roster space, though, I would grab him in the off chance he plays in December for fantasy playoffs.
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So, where do we find the best information on ADP and his possible return date?

 
JFS171 said:
May not matter at all as Frank Gore seems like the ageless one, but who would even get the work in Indy if Gore goes down?  Turbin?
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Any thoughts on this, is it Turbin more than Ferguson?

Also would you handcuff Gore or L Miller 1st?

 
GoBirds said:
Any thoughts on this, is it Turbin more than Ferguson?

Also would you handcuff Gore or L Miller 1st?
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You'd automatically think Gore because he's old, but that dude has been as durable as it gets. 10 straight seasons of 200+ carries.

 
GoBirds said:
Any thoughts on this, is it Turbin more than Ferguson?

Also would you handcuff Gore or L Miller 1st?
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I tried to dig into this myself -- I think it's Turbin. 

Last 4 games:
Turbin has 9 carries and 10 receptions. 
Ferguson has a single reception (and somehow has a fumble -- assuming special teams)
Todman hasn't been active, I don't believe (hasn't had a touch either way)

There's no other RB on the roster or the practice squad.

 
Wed Nov 16 Bump - with this week's updates in red. 

Nov 16 5PM ET update:  Moved C Michael from 'Dropable' to 'Honorable' mention due to the news he signed with GB today.  LOL

Nov 17 update:  Don Jackson put on IR not that it matters much.

Nov 18 update:  added Damien Williams MIA to the Potential list due to volume if Ajayi goes down

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-10 list, loosely ranked:

  • Dion Lewis NE - per FFToday:  moved from the PUP list to the active roster on Saturday, was not in uniform for the team's 31-24 Sunday night loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Because Lewis remained on the PUP list through the team's week of practice, the Pats were not required to list the running back's participation on their three practice reports. "He wouldn't have been on the injury report," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said on Monday's conference call. Credit:  MassLive
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
  • Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities Appears to be over the calf injury
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - thanks to @One for the news link that says AP will be eligible Nov 30 @Pigskin Fanatic recently posted " re: ADP, fwiw, an article posted on CBS on 11/1 stated he is "not ready to start running." to go from that to playing in a game on Thanksgiving in 24 days? i believe in the miracle of modern medicine, but this seems like an awful lot to ask of a knee. if i had roster space, though, I would grab him in the off chance he plays in December for fantasy playoffs. "
  • Rawls SEA - Wow - Seattle cut C Michael - Rawls fully practicing NOV 17: HC says Rawls will play "significantly" - Nov 18 update: news reports are now saying Rawls will be "eased back in"
  • Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO...  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171 moved him to the Potential list
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) Knee surgery - out 2-6 weeks
  • Damien Williams MIA - ton of usage by Gase - thanks @packer_junkie
Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  • W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball  Has played more the last 2 weeks but has not surpassed Jennings
  • K. Carey CHI - 
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  • Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck - and per @Mr. Irrelevant "(or is it Juwan Thompson you'd really want?)"
  • Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 
On The Radar

  • James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  • Joique Bell?
  • Mike Davis - FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS
  • Toussaint PIT
  • C Michael GB
Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: decent production Oct 30 in place of McCoy - moved him to the Too Late list as he should be rostered in all leagues following the week 8 game
  • D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker -
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now UPDATE:  Ware is concussed
  • Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game UPDATE: J Rodgers has a sprained foot
  • Howard CHI -
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - RBBC going forward?
  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - started last 2 games and put up decent numbers
  • Prosise, C.J. SEA RB
Dropable

  • Don Jackson GB
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

 
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daylight said:
Does Akeem Hunt HOU belong on the list?  What's the book on him?
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He did this last year -- he's quick and has some juice as a complementary piece.  My guess is if Miller went down, we'd see Blue on early downs and Hunt in a 3rd down and passing situation role... likely an ugly committee.

 
The guy that has me most intrigued is Damien Williams-- not that he's an elite talent-- but he certainly has earned the #2 role and Gase's trust. He's being used more (15% jump in snaps last two weeks) and Ajayi isn't exactly the most likely candidate to stay healthy. As I look up and down my waiver wire-- so many of these backup rbs in places like Oakland, SF, Philly, etc., etc., look to be in huge RBBC messes if the starter were to go down. Gase likes to play one dude-- and they clearly don't trust Drake. Williams fresh legs behind that OL could be something. 

 
packer_junkie said:
The guy that has me most intrigued is Damien Williams-- not that he's an elite talent-- but he certainly has earned the #2 role and Gase's trust. He's being used more (15% jump in snaps last two weeks) and Ajayi isn't exactly the most likely candidate to stay healthy. As I look up and down my waiver wire-- so many of these backup rbs in places like Oakland, SF, Philly, etc., etc., look to be in huge RBBC messes if the starter were to go down. Gase likes to play one dude-- and they clearly don't trust Drake. Williams fresh legs behind that OL could be something. 
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I added Williams to the Potential list - thanks @packer_junkie

 
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