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TE in a Bruce Arians offense is an afterthought and OJ Howard hasn't exactly shown much in the NFL. I think Kelce is #1, 2 or 3 in the dynasty TE rankings depending on your preference and is in line to score in that range for the next 3-5 years.
Wait, what? OJ has been awesome when targeted. Granted, he hasn't been targeted enough, but on 87 targets he's got 60/997/11.
Mizelle February ADP shows Kelce at #24 overall (TE1) and Howard at #67 overall (TE4). Combining those positions with the values listed at dynastyfftools.com, the #24 player is worth 5014 points and #67 is worth 1321 points. The difference between the two is 3693, which is about ADP 33.5 (Michel/Fournette). Those draft picks don't come anywhere close to bridging that gap, especially in what is considered to be a very down year for rookies.
I couldn’t trade Kelce for Howard straight up. He’s years younger, and looked elite last year. Don’t be scared by Arians, good coaches adapt to the talent.
Depending on how high of a pick you were asking for, those both sound very reasonable. His ADP is just outside of WR1 range.
Well I wanted a mid first and Boyd. For Moore, I was only looking at a second. Looks like Jeffery, ranked much higher by the experts for years than his trade value. Feels like his trade value is more of a bottom wr2. But I was wondering if it’s just those owners and I should keep shopping.
I think many people don't believe in Thielen so his trade value is lower than what it should be. He seems like a hold to me because you can't get the value he actually gives you in the lineup.
I am a big fan of DJ Moore so I would be reluctant to add a high pick for Thielen but I could see a mid-high 2nd
I would have thought so but they all insta-rejected with no comments like I was ripping them off.
Consensus value =/= real value, or else we'd all just bring an ADP to startup drafts as our cheatsheet. There are plenty of trades that might look justified using ADP that just aren't good trades, IMO. There have been plenty of trades that passed the consensus eye test that ended up being awful within a year. So I'm more than happy to disagree with the consensus from time to time. My statement was never "that trade offer is bad compared to consensus values." It was merely my opinion.
And I'll spell out what you are missing: Howard is averaging 16.6 ypr, leads all tight ends over the past two years in 1st downs per targets and touchdowns per target. As they say, you don't get points for last year's fantasy stats so I don't really care how many fantasy points each had in the past - I care about their potential in the years to come. Over the past two years, Howard is averaging 2.62 points per target while Kelce is averaging a solid 1.95 ppt. Kelce is 5 years older than Howard and will likely have a shorted career due to the micro-fracture surgery on his knee.
You think that Heath Miller was good? Is that the evidence that you're using to burst this "myth"?
Yes, I do think Heath Miller was good. But at a minimum he was serviceable and he played a large role in that offense - the only problem was that the offense didn't pass much. When they did pass, Arians utilized the TE, contrary to popular belief.
I can get behind this, but where are you on Brate considering the pretty hefty contract extension (both in money and years) they gave him? I see this as a two-headed monster for 2-3 years, and it's not like Tampa Bay's receivers are trash. Those guys are clearly going to be the primary targets.
Brate's contract is very odd. It's actually very team friendly. They could cut him now without any cap hit, IIRC. It was basically a bunch of $7M seasons strung together.
yes I'm experiencing similar hate for Thielen. I guess he is a hold right now, he doesn't turn 29 until late August and with his late start seems like he has minimum another 3 years left of high production. I can't figure out why teams that will compete in 2019 aren't more interested. Best offer I got was Corey Davis for him and feels like he should be worth more
Some recents...(12 team, 1QB, PPR)
I'm an OJ believer. Part of the reason is that Winston likes throwing to his TEs. Arians and the WR talent scare me a little on the target share issue. I do like Howard though. But I would want a proven stud commodity in return for Kelce. Doesn't have to be a TE necessarily but the risk of Howard plus a mid 1st doesn't come even remotely close to getting me started in negotiations on a player I would not be looking to move in the first place. If you want to move from Kelce because of his age, I would want a *lot* more. Plus he has Mahomes throwing him the ball in an offense that *clearly* values and targets him.
Trade just went down in one of my leagues:
Me too - they both actually seem light to me. I'm surprised they were rejected (unless those teams were in a rebuild mode).
I'd disagree. I like Mack but he's the type of back that will always be looking over his shoulder for the team to upgrade him. Although if the Colts don't bring some one in you do get another season of RB2 stats.
rushing stats count in most fantasy leagues as well.Mayfield threw one more TD than Watson THIS year with 2.5 fewer games played.
Yeah, that's true. But I'd probably count that as a negative too. Watson ran a lot because his line was so bad and if he continues running that much, like you said, the chances of injury are almost guaranteed.
If Mack is able to play a full season and running behind that OL Mack will be a RB1.
It's possible, but I would go into the season having 12 RBs ranked ahead of him for redraft. There's no shame in being a RB2 (and will admit he'd have RB1 upside).
Mack has almost as many "ifs" as Damien Williams. There are scenarios where both of them could be an RB1... I just wouldn't bet on them.
I could see ranking some ahead of Mack like Dr. Octopus said, but comparing him to Damien Williams is way off base. I am not sure if you didn't watch him play or if you seriously think that is a good comparison.
I'm not saying they are a player-to-player comp, but more of a situational comp. I'm saying they both require a lot of "ifs" to get to that RB1 scenario. At a minimum both guys will need to survive free agency and the draft which isn't a given.
So he is better than Watson? Im not a Baker hater necessarily, but I think most would agree that if given the choice between the two, they would take watson.Mayfield threw one more TD than Watson THIS year with 2.5 fewer games played.
By this logic Baker is destined to get hurt too because he is small, so its a wash
I'm not sure what logic you mean. Mayfield ran much less than Watson. Mostly because he didn't have to. I didn't say anything about size.
