Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[menobrown 2,700]

23 hours ago, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

I posted about this in that trade thread.

In a league I could use another WR someone posted AROB for a 2019 first or any 2020 first. They did not say "any" on the 2019 first so maybe they would not take my pick which is 11 but when I saw their message I mulled over offering it. I knew based on "value" and team need I should do it. Just could not talk myself into it.

Honestly felt a lot to me like Alshon Jeffrey two years ago. Granted that was a stronger draft but I took two offers that year were I gave up I think pick 9 for Alshon. It was one of those deals where value was on my side. I posted those trades in the trade forum and everyone who commented said I won.  I lost both of those trades and this has the same feel to me

[FF Ninja 2,675]

On 2/10/2019 at 8:01 PM, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

I would easily trade a late 1st for him. I'd need to see how the combine/draft shake out before giving a more precise value, but right now I'm guessing I'd put his value around 1.09.

22 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

2015 is starting to look like an outlier season for Robinson - and those numbers seem to be a bit conflated by the garbage time stats Bortles put up.

I liked him as a prospect and think he has some talent but at some point production is production.

He would be a guy I'd be reluctant to trade for - as I'm just not sure the potential reward is worth the risk of a late pick breaking out.

Let me preface this by saying that I've got zero AR shares and if I ever had any, they were only in redraft. Last offseason I was looking into the impact of garbage time as a whole (I think it started with a discussion about Hopkins and his garbage time) and while garbage time did impact AR positively in 2015 (as it does most players), his stats while the game was not out of hand were actually exceptional already. It's difficult to pull the numbers out accurately because trailing by 2-3 scores will typically lead to more targets, but I want to say if you gave him the same number of targets, but at his non-garbage time rate, he still would have put up ~80/1250/12 that season.

I did the little study using points per target to discern whether garbage time targets were worth more than regular targets (they were). I also figured what % of their stats came from garbage time. IIRC, AR was around 35% which was higher than average but not out of line with some other players like Hopkins who didn't get a bad wrap for garbage time stats. Speaking of Hopkins, they both had equally terrible 2016s (both were at 1.31 points per target in 1ppr).

Just wanted to share that data, but interpretation is up to each individual. Personally I took it as a positive for him... last season he was on my radar. I was ready to snag him in my redraft auctions if the price was right, but I never got him. I also lightly tried to trade for him in dynasty with no success. I think I'm going to give it a go again, as it seems his price is even lower this year. He's 25 and will turn 26 just before the season starts. His points per target last year were respectable (1.64 - 1ppr) although not awe inspiring. However, when taken into context that's not bad - he was dealing with nagging injuries (groin?) all year and the targets were coming from Trubisky who is at least a step down from QBs that most of the top performers were getting targets from.

He's obviously not without risk. Injuries limited him last season and he's only played 16 games in two of five seasons. Additionally, there are people out there who think Anthony Miller will overtake him to be the Bears' WR1. He's unlikely to see 150 targets like he did in JAX, as Chicago ranked 25th in pass attempts under Nagy last season. IMO, a realistic range of outcomes for a healthy AR would be 72/1000/5 to 80/1120/8. So I'd put him in line with players like Golladay, Landry, and Cooper.

[Dr. Octopus 10,113]

8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I did the little study using points per target to discern whether garbage time targets were worth more than regular targets (they were). I also figured what % of their stats came from garbage time. IIRC, AR was around 35% which was higher than average but not out of line with some other players like Hopkins who didn't get a bad wrap for garbage time stats. Speaking of Hopkins, they both had equally terrible 2016s (both were at 1.31 points per target in 1ppr).

Maybe because Hopkins has produced year in and year out while Robinson has not?

I'll admit he's a tough player to evaluate as there are plenty of things to like but at this point since I'm not really sold I'll take my chances with the late first (and I realize those odds aren't great). I can understand why some would rather take the chance on a player that showed he can get it done - even if it has not been consistently.

And I don't think it's strictly a case o garbage time targets being necessarily better to worse than regular targets - it also has to do with the spike in targets that come with garbage time.

[FF Ninja 2,675]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Maybe because Hopkins has produced year in and year out while Robinson has not?

I'm sure there are several factors - I wasn't trying to speculate on why, just citing the perception.

3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll admit he's a tough player to evaluate as there are plenty of things to like but at this point since I'm not really sold I'll take my chances with the late first (and I realize those odds aren't great). I can understand why some would rather take the chance on a player that showed he can get it done - even if it has not been consistently.

A lot depends on how rookie ADP starts to shake out and, of course, on team need. If you're set for 2019, then why not develop a high upside guy? I see both sides. But generally speaking, I think AR is at least worth a late 1st. If I was doing a snake startup, I'd take AR before I took 1.10.

5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And I don't think it's strictly a case o garbage time targets being necessarily better to worse than regular targets - it also has to do with the spike in targets that come with garbage time.

Absolutely and that was one of the things I pointed out in the garbage time discussion. I said I was wary of guys that played a lot of garbage time because (1) their points per target data was skewed and (2) their target volume was likely to regress as the team probably faces less garbage time in the coming years.

[FreeBaGeL 6,842]

1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

A lot depends on how rookie ADP starts to shake out and, of course, on team need. If you're set for 2019, then why not develop a high upside guy? I see both sides. But generally speaking, I think AR is at least worth a late 1st. If I was doing a snake startup, I'd take AR before I took 1.10.

This is one of those strange disparity's with startup drafts (and part of the reason I think rookies are somewhat undervalued in startup drafts after the top couple).  ARob's current startup ADP is before the 1.03 pick in startup drafts, but of course no one would pay 1.03 or even close to that for him in an actual trade.

[FF Ninja 2,675]

10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

This is one of those strange disparity's with startup drafts (and part of the reason I think rookies are somewhat undervalued in startup drafts after the top couple).  ARob's current startup ADP is before the 1.03 pick in startup drafts, but of course no one would pay 1.03 or even close to that for him in an actual trade.

Hah, that's funny. I had no idea. I refuse to do snake startups. Auction or gtfo for me. It seems you would be correct about rookie being undervalued in snake startups then. What ADP did you look at?

[jeter23 37]

20 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hah, that's funny. I had no idea. I refuse to do snake startups. Auction or gtfo for me. It seems you would be correct about rookie being undervalued in snake startups then. What ADP did you look at?

Not sure what Bagel used but my data matches what he is saying...Harry and DK ahead of ARob, but that's it. Montgomery, Jacobs and Harmon are all close behind though. 

[Yambag 11]

What is everyone's thought on Antonio Brown given the latest news? 

I own him in 1 dynasty league, in win now mode.  Keep or trade? 

If trading, what would you want in return?

[fruity pebbles 2,275]

25 minutes ago, Yambag said:

What is everyone's thought on Antonio Brown given the latest news? 

I own him in 1 dynasty league, in win now mode.  Keep or trade? 

If trading, what would you want in return?

Keep or hold until the situation is cleared up. You’ll take a beating dealing him now. People hate uncertainty.

[jeaton6 636]

Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

[skinfanjon 237]

16 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

In TE premium I'd be fine paying that if I'm a contender.  Makes such a difference having a guy like that in your lineup and Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down at all.

[jeaton6 636]

Just now, skinfanjon said:

In TE premium I'd be fine paying that if I'm a contender.  Makes such a difference having a guy like that in your lineup and Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down at all.

Sorry just PPR, not premium.

[skinfanjon 237]

7 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Sorry just PPR, not premium.

Probably still do it if I really feel good about winning the next two years.  Probably pass otherwise.  

[Gally 2,172]

1 hour ago, Yambag said:

What is everyone's thought on Antonio Brown given the latest news? 

I own him in 1 dynasty league, in win now mode.  Keep or trade? 

If trading, what would you want in return?

Definitely hold at this point.  He will have something to prove next year and if he is on the right team I don't see a drop in production necessarily.  Right now anyone offering trades are going to try and lowball you hoping you will move him in a panic situation and take a lot less than full value. 

[tangfoot 1,366]

2 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

TE in a Bruce Arians offense is an afterthought and OJ Howard hasn't exactly shown much in the NFL.  I think Kelce is #1, 2 or 3 in the dynasty TE rankings depending on your preference and is in line to score in that range for the next 3-5 years.
There's no greater positional advantage than a TE that scores like a WR, and this offer doesn't come close to Kelce's FF value to me.

[FF Ninja 2,675]

12 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

TE in a Bruce Arians offense is an afterthought and OJ Howard hasn't exactly shown much in the NFL.  I think Kelce is #1, 2 or 3 in the dynasty TE rankings depending on your preference and is in line to score in that range for the next 3-5 years.
There's no greater positional advantage than a TE that scores like a WR, and this offer doesn't come close to Kelce's FF value to me.

Wait, what? OJ has been awesome when targeted. Granted, he hasn't been targeted enough, but on 87 targets he's got 60/997/11.

As for the Bruce Arians thing, it was discussed somewhere in here at the time of Arians signing on with TB... maybe in the OJ Howard thread. But someone mentioned Heath Miller doing better with Haley than Arians, but after looking at the data closely, Heath was actually a bigger % of the offense under Arians, the difference was just that PIT ranked very highly on defense and didn't need to throw the ball much while Arians was there.

It seems Arians doesn't prioritize bringing in tight ends, but he did appreciate Heath and spoke highly of him. What he really likes is a dual threat TE, so I suspect he'll find a way to utilize OJ.

Personally, I would not accept the trade offered above. OJ is too valuable and Kelce is too old for that kind of price.

Edited February 13 by FF Ninja

[tangfoot 1,366]

13 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Wait, what? OJ has been awesome when targeted. Granted, he hasn't been targeted enough, but on 87 targets he's got 60/997/11.

As for the Bruce Arians thing, it was discussed somewhere in here at the time of Arians signing on with TB... maybe in the OJ Howard thread. But someone mentioned Heath Miller doing better with Haley than Arians, but after looking at the data closely, Heath was actually a bigger % of the offense under Arians, the difference was just that PIT ranked very highly on defense and didn't need to throw the ball much while Arians was there.

It seems Arians doesn't prioritize bringing in tight ends, but he did appreciate Heath and spoke highly of him. What he really likes is a dual threat TE, so I suspect he'll find a way to utilize OJ.

Personally, I would not accept the trade offered above. OJ is too valuable and Kelce is too old for that kind of price.

Mizelle February ADP shows Kelce at #24 overall (TE1) and Howard at #67 overall (TE4).  Combining those positions with the values listed at dynastyfftools.com, the #24 player is worth 5014 points and #67 is worth 1321 points.  The difference between the two is 3693, which is about ADP 33.5 (Michel/Fournette).  Those draft picks don't come anywhere close to bridging that gap, especially in what is considered to be a very down year for rookies. 

And when I said Howard hasn't done much, I'll spell it out for you.  He has 165 fantasy points in the past two seasons, which is only 5 more than his teammate, Brate.  In comparison, Kelce has outscored the two of them combined in that time span, and should continue to do so.

Edited February 13 by tangfoot

[voiceofunreason 871]

3 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

I couldn’t trade Kelce for Howard straight up. He’s years younger, and looked elite last year. Don’t be scared by Arians, good coaches adapt to the talent.

Edited February 13 by voiceofunreason

[voiceofunreason 871]

Anybody seen any Thielen trades? Tried moving him for Moore or Boyd in 3 leagues with a pick on their sides and no interest at all.

Edited February 13 by voiceofunreason

[tangfoot 1,366]

15 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Anybody seen any Thielen trades? Tried moving him for Moore or Boyd in 3 leagues with a pick on their sides and no interest at all.

Depending on how high of a pick you were asking for, those both sound very reasonable.  His ADP is just outside of WR1 range.

[voiceofunreason 871]

1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Depending on how high of a pick you were asking for, those both sound very reasonable.  His ADP is just outside of WR1 range.

Well I wanted a mid first and Boyd. For Moore, I was only looking at a second. Looks like Jeffery, ranked much higher by the experts for years than his trade value. Feels like his trade value is more of a bottom wr2. But I was wondering if it’s just those owners and I should keep shopping.

[tangfoot 1,366]

1 minute ago, voiceofunreason said:

Well I wanted a mid first and Boyd. For Moore, I was only looking at a second. Looks like Jeffery, ranked much higher by the experts for years than his trade value. Feels like his trade value is more of a bottom wr2. But I was wondering if it’s just those owners and I should keep shopping.

I would accept that in both cases to get Thielen.

[Gally 2,172]

1 minute ago, voiceofunreason said:

Well I wanted a mid first and Boyd. For Moore, I was only looking at a second. Looks like Jeffery, ranked much higher by the experts for years than his trade value. Feels like his trade value is more of a bottom wr2. But I was wondering if it’s just those owners and I should keep shopping.

I think many people don't believe in Thielen so his trade value is lower than what it should be.  He seems like a hold to me because you can't get the value he actually gives you in the lineup. 

[Birdie048 234]

3 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Depending on how high of a pick you were asking for, those both sound very reasonable.  His ADP is just outside of WR1 range.

I am a big fan of DJ Moore so I would be reluctant to add a high pick for Thielen but I could see a mid-high 2nd

[voiceofunreason 871]

4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I would accept that in both cases to get Thielen.

I would have thought so but they all insta-rejected with no comments like I was ripping them off.

[tkrull 391]

Offered a team that should be rebuilding a 1.09 and a back-half 2020 1st for TY Hilton.  Did I insult him?

[JackReacher 253]

1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Mizelle February ADP

Can you link? I only see Mizelle up to Dec. 18. Thanks. 

[tangfoot 1,366]

1 minute ago, JackReacher said:

Can you link? I only see Mizelle up to Dec. 18. Thanks. 

mizelle.net/mfl/2019

[FF Ninja 2,675]

1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Mizelle February ADP shows Kelce at #24 overall (TE1) and Howard at #67 overall (TE4).  Combining those positions with the values listed at dynastyfftools.com, the #24 player is worth 5014 points and #67 is worth 1321 points.  The difference between the two is 3693, which is about ADP 33.5 (Michel/Fournette).  Those draft picks don't come anywhere close to bridging that gap, especially in what is considered to be a very down year for rookies. 

Consensus value =/= real value, or else we'd all just bring an ADP to startup drafts as our cheatsheet. There are plenty of trades that might look justified using ADP that just aren't good trades, IMO. There have been plenty of trades that passed the consensus eye test that ended up being awful within a year. So I'm more than happy to disagree with the consensus from time to time. My statement was never "that trade offer is bad compared to consensus values." It was merely my opinion.

1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

And when I said Howard hasn't done much, I'll spell it out for you.  He has 165 fantasy points in the past two seasons, which is only 5 more than his teammate, Brate.  In comparison, Kelce has outscored the two of them combined in that time span, and should continue to do so.

And I'll spell out what you are missing: Howard is averaging 16.6 ypr, leads all tight ends over the past two years in 1st downs per targets and touchdowns per target. As they say, you don't get points for last year's fantasy stats so I don't really care how many fantasy points each had in the past - I care about their potential in the years to come. Over the past two years, Howard is averaging 2.62 points per target while Kelce is averaging a solid 1.95 ppt. Kelce is 5 years older than Howard and will likely have a shorted career due to the micro-fracture surgery on his knee.

Howard has the potential to pace Kelce over the next 2 years, but even if he doesn't, I'll take the extra 5+ years of his likely excellent career over a couple ppg in the short term.

Fun fact:
Kelce 2 years after being drafted: 87 targets, 183.2 ppr points. (16g)
OJ Howard 2 years after being drafted: 87 targets, 225.7 ppr points. (24g) 

I take it you are conceding the Arians TE myth?

[Andy Dufresne 7,636]

38 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Offered a team that should be rebuilding a 1.09 and a back-half 2020 1st for TY Hilton.  Did I insult him?

Have Hilton on a team myself. Not at all insulting.

[tangfoot 1,366]

7 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I take it you are conceding the Arians TE myth?

You think that Heath Miller was good?  Is that the evidence that you're using to burst this "myth"?
I saw Bruce as a head coach in Arizona, TEs were not prioritized.  The TEs in Tampa are significantly more talented than what Arizona had, but I'll believe it when I see it.  I'm not expecting TE production in TB to be very different than it was last year, where it was both a time share and mediocre for both players (from a Fantasy Football perspective).

[FF Ninja 2,675]

2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You think that Heath Miller was good?  Is that the evidence that you're using to burst this "myth"?
I saw Bruce as a head coach in Arizona, TEs were not prioritized.  The TEs in Tampa are significantly more talented than what Arizona had, but I'll believe it when I see it.  I'm not expecting TE production in TB to be very different than it was last year, where it was both a time share and mediocre for both players (from a Fantasy Football perspective).

Yes, I do think Heath Miller was good. But at a minimum he was serviceable and he played a large role in that offense - the only problem was that the offense didn't pass much. When they did pass, Arians utilized the TE, contrary to popular belief. 

You're not wrong that Arians had very little TE help in Arizona and didn't bother to prioritize getting TE talent. But he did have a very productive trio of WRs in Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd so I can understand why a receiving TE would not be a priority there. I hardly see this as a death knell for future TEs in Arians' system. 

[tangfoot 1,366]

1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

Yes, I do think Heath Miller was good. But at a minimum he was serviceable and he played a large role in that offense - the only problem was that the offense didn't pass much. When they did pass, Arians utilized the TE, contrary to popular belief. 

You're not wrong that Arians had very little TE help in Arizona and didn't bother to prioritize getting TE talent. But he did have a very productive trio of WRs in Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd so I can understand why a receiving TE would not be a priority there. I hardly see this as a death knell for future TEs in Arians' system. 

I can get behind this, but where are you on Brate considering the pretty hefty contract extension (both in money and years) they gave him?  I see this as a two-headed monster for 2-3 years, and it's not like Tampa Bay's receivers are trash.  Those guys are clearly going to be the primary targets. 
I will admit that BA will use whatever talent he has to get an advantage, and it's certainly possible that OJ becomes something like the #2 target priority that he will have to be in order to justify the price you think he's worth. 

In my experience, TEs don't hit their stride until they've been in the league for 4-5 years, and most of the time it's when they move on to their 2nd team.  I can't get behind the logic that Howard is going to start producing enough to justify his current value in the short term.  I'd rather wait it out because it's far more likely that his value will drop over the next two years.

[FF Ninja 2,675]

1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

I can get behind this, but where are you on Brate considering the pretty hefty contract extension (both in money and years) they gave him?  I see this as a two-headed monster for 2-3 years, and it's not like Tampa Bay's receivers are trash.  Those guys are clearly going to be the primary targets. 
I will admit that BA will use whatever talent he has to get an advantage, and it's certainly possible that OJ becomes something like the #2 target priority that he will have to be in order to justify the price you think he's worth. 

In my experience, TEs don't hit their stride until they've been in the league for 4-5 years, and most of the time it's when they move on to their 2nd team.  I can't get behind the logic that Howard is going to start producing enough to justify his current value in the short term.  I'd rather wait it out because it's far more likely that his value will drop over the next two years.

Brate's contract is very odd. It's actually very team friendly. They could cut him now without any cap hit, IIRC. It was basically a bunch of $7M seasons strung together.

Arians has voice his opinion about liking TEs that can block and receive, so I will kind of be surprised if Brate isn't cut this year.

Howard hit the ground running and has been producing at an elite level on a per target basis. All he needs is for someone to see this and utilize him some more. His rate is so high that he could take a significant hit (as is often the case when volume increases) and still be elite. It would not take much for him to vault into the top 5 at his position in 2019 and hang onto that for ~8 years. 

[Aunt Jemima 294]

What is Adam Thielen's value right now? I've been trying to move him in a FFPC rebuild and he seems hard to move right now. Is he suddenly over the hill? That seems to be the perception I'm getting from responses.

[tkrull 391]

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Have Hilton on a team myself. Not at all insulting.

I was puzzled by the insta-reject/no counter.  Oh well.

[Aunt Jemima 294]

2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Depending on how high of a pick you were asking for, those both sound very reasonable.  His ADP is just outside of WR1 range.

yes I'm experiencing similar hate for Thielen. I guess he is a hold right now, he doesn't turn 29 until late August and with his late start seems like he has minimum another 3 years left of high production. I can't figure out why teams that will compete in 2019 aren't more interested. Best offer I got was Corey Davis for him and feels like he should be worth more

[Aunt Jemima 294]

Actually I take that back the Davis owner wanted to throw in my 2020 2nd also on top of Thielen

[Zyphros 1,400]

I just sent out some offers for Thielen 

[tkrull 391]

16 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I just sent out some offers for Thielen 

What did you open with?

[jeter23 37]

9 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Anybody seen any Thielen trades? Tried moving him for Moore or Boyd in 3 leagues with a pick on their sides and no interest at all.

Some recents...(12 team, 1QB, PPR)

* Thielen/4th for Corey Davis/2nd

* AB for Thielen/Hamilton/2n/3rd/3rd

* Drake/Godwin for Thielen

* Thielen for Mack

 

 

[tangfoot 1,366]

Those are godawful and I don’t even like Thielen all that much. Give me him in every  deal except AB. 

[Zyphros 1,400]

7 hours ago, tkrull said:

What did you open with?

Garbage, to see how cheap I could get him.  It didn't work ha.

[Edgar 112]

Depending on how the draft shakes out, Thielen for Mack is reasonable. 

[Mr. Peterson 164]

Anyone seeing any dynasty trade offers for Baker Mayfield?  I’m not even sure what kind of offer to start with?   

[barackdhouse 869]

16 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

I'm an OJ believer. Part of the reason is that Winston likes throwing to his TEs. Arians and the WR talent scare me a little on the target share issue. I do like Howard though. But I would want a proven stud commodity in return for Kelce. Doesn't have to be a TE necessarily but the risk of Howard plus a mid 1st doesn't come even remotely close to getting me started in negotiations on a player I would not be looking to move in the first place. If you want to move from Kelce because of his age, I would want a *lot* more. Plus he has Mahomes throwing him the ball in an offense that *clearly* values and targets him. 

[Ranethe 1,425]

5 hours ago, Mr. Peterson said:

Anyone seeing any dynasty trade offers for Baker Mayfield?  I’m not even sure what kind of offer to start with?   

Trade just went down in one of my leagues: 

Deshaun Watson for Mayfield and D’onta Foreman

[Pwingles 448]

2 hours ago, Ranethe said:

Trade just went down in one of my leagues: 

Deshaun Watson for Mayfield and D’onta Foreman

lol what?

[Andy Dufresne 7,636]

21 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

lol what?

What's wrong with it?

[Pwingles 448]

I don't think Foreman offsets the difference in value between the two. Id personally rather have watson than the other side of that deal.