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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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4 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

I don't think Foreman offsets the difference in value between the two. Id personally rather have watson than the other side of that deal.

 

Mayfield threw one more TD than Watson THIS year with 2.5 fewer games played. :confused:

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20 hours ago, tangfoot said:

I would accept that in both cases to get Thielen.

Me too - they both actually seem light to me. I'm surprised they were rejected (unless those teams were in a rebuild mode).

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11 hours ago, jeter23 said:

Some recents...(12 team, 1QB, PPR)

* Thielen/4th for Corey Davis/2nd

* AB for Thielen/Hamilton/2n/3rd/3rd

* Drake/Godwin for Thielen

* Thielen for Mack

 

 

Yuck on most of those. Looks like people should be sending out offers for Thielen.

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10 hours ago, Edgar said:

Depending on how the draft shakes out, Thielen for Mack is reasonable. 

I'd disagree. I like Mack but he's the type of back that will always be looking over his shoulder for the team to upgrade him. Although if the Colts don't bring some one in you do get another season of RB2 stats.

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22 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Mayfield threw one more TD than Watson THIS year with 2.5 fewer games played. :confused:

rushing stats count in most fantasy leagues as well.

For the record I'd tale the Watson side as well but don't see it as outrageous as I can see some one being scared that Watson is always in danger of missing games.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

rushing stats count in most fantasy leagues as well.

For the record I'd tale the Watson side as well but don't see it as outrageous as I can see some one being scared that Watson is always in danger of missing games.

Yeah, that's true. But I'd probably count that as a negative too. Watson ran a lot because his line was so bad and if he continues running that much, like you said, the chances of injury are almost guaranteed.

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'd disagree. I like Mack but he's the type of back that will always be looking over his shoulder for the team to upgrade him. Although if the Colts don't bring some one in you do get another season of RB2 stats.

If Mack is able to play a full season and running behind that OL Mack will be a RB1.

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2 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

If Mack is able to play a full season and running behind that OL Mack will be a RB1.

It's possible, but I would go into the season having 12 RBs ranked ahead of him for redraft. There's no shame in being a RB2 (and will admit he'd have RB1 upside).

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7 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

If Mack is able to play a full season and running behind that OL Mack will be a RB1.

Mack has almost as many "ifs" as Damien Williams. There are scenarios where both of them could be an RB1... I just wouldn't bet on them.

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10 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Mack has almost as many "ifs" as Damien Williams. There are scenarios where both of them could be an RB1... I just wouldn't bet on them.

I could see ranking some ahead of Mack like Dr. Octopus said, but comparing him to Damien Williams is way off base.  I am not sure if you didn't watch him play or if you seriously think that is a good comparison.

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1 minute ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I could see ranking some ahead of Mack like Dr. Octopus said, but comparing him to Damien Williams is way off base.  I am not sure if you didn't watch him play or if you seriously think that is a good comparison.

I'm not saying they are a player-to-player comp, but more of a situational comp. I'm saying they both require a lot of "ifs" to get to that RB1 scenario. At a minimum both guys will need to survive free agency and the draft which isn't a given. 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Mayfield threw one more TD than Watson THIS year with 2.5 fewer games played. :confused:

So he is better than Watson? Im not a Baker hater necessarily, but I think most would agree that if given the choice between the two, they would take watson.

Watson for Baker + isn't a bad deal, I just dont think Foreman, who is a dart throw at best right now, doesnt make up the difference for me. Would rather have a random 2nd or equivalent

41 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Yeah, that's true. But I'd probably count that as a negative too. Watson ran a lot because his line was so bad and if he continues running that much, like you said, the chances of injury are almost guaranteed.

By this logic Baker is destined to get hurt too because he is small, so its a wash

Edited by Pwingles

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After doing some more research because I couldn't believe Mack and Williams were being compared.  They seem pretty equal in stats.  Williams has more receptions by far. I would like to see Wiliams do it for a full season before I trust him.  I still think Mack is far better than him.  Williams is in better offense and I think he has more obstacles to overcome in regards to being replaced.  

 

Mack:

14 games played:

228 carries, 1,102 yard, 16 carries a game, 4.4 ypc, 12 TDs, 19 receptions

Last 7 games played:

119 carries, 546 yards, 17 carries a game, 4.5 ypc, 6 TDs, 8 receptions 

 

 

Williams:

7 games with workload:

82 carries, 414 yards, 5.0 ypc, 6 tds, 30 receptions

 

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9 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

So he is better than Watson? Im not a Baker hater necessarily, but I think most would agree that if given the choice between the two, they would take watson.

Watson for Baker + isn't a bad deal, I just dont think Foreman, who is a dart throw at best right now, doesnt make up the difference for me. Would rather have a random 2nd or equivalent

By this logic Baker is destined to get hurt too because he is small, so its a wash

I'm not sure what logic you mean. Mayfield ran much less than Watson. Mostly because he didn't have to. I didn't say anything about size.

Anyway, the point is that I think Mayfield is at least close to Watson if not ahead. And he carries a decreased risk of injury. So yeah, I'd rather have Mayfield.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not sure what logic you mean. Mayfield ran much less than Watson. Mostly because he didn't have to. I didn't say anything about size.

Anyway, the point is that I think Mayfield is at least close to Watson if not ahead. And he carries a decreased risk of injury. So yeah, I'd rather have Mayfield.

To be clear, if you prefer Mayfield for any reason, thats cool. Im not going to die on the hill that Watson is elite and mayfield isnt, I just think they are in different tiers personally.

The logic i was referring to was your statement that equated running more to a higher chance of injury, which probably isnt wrong. I was only pointing out that if you are worried about that, you should also be worried about mayfields size adding to his injury risk is all.

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17 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

After doing some more research because I couldn't believe Mack and Williams were being compared.  

I'll say it again: they weren't being compared. I was saying they are both guys with a lot of "ifs" for their RB1 potential to come true. So their situations were being compared, but I wasn't comping them player-to-player.

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5 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

To be clear, if you prefer Mayfield for any reason, thats cool. Im not going to die on the hill that Watson is elite and mayfield isnt, I just think they are in different tiers personally.

The logic i was referring to was your statement that equated running more to a higher chance of injury, which probably isnt wrong. I was only pointing out that if you are worried about that, you should also be worried about mayfields size adding to his injury risk is all.

It's cool. We're discussing. :hifive:

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11 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'll say it again: they weren't being compared. I was saying they are both guys with a lot of "ifs" for their RB1 potential to come true. So their situations were being compared, but I wasn't comping them player-to-player.

Their situations are extremely analogous IMO, replaceable talents benefitting from being in high powered offenses with great offensive lines. They are somewhat insulated from threats due to this being a down RB class though. If one were interested in acquiring them, I would wait until after the draft because even a mid to late round RB taken hurts their perceived value IMO, maybe even to the point of making them worth targeting. Right now owners are high on those late season/ post season performances.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm not sure what logic you mean. Mayfield ran much less than Watson. Mostly because he didn't have to. I didn't say anything about size.

Anyway, the point is that I think Mayfield is at least close to Watson if not ahead. And he carries a decreased risk of injury. So yeah, I'd rather have Mayfield.

So in terms of rookie picks this year.  What would you offer for Mayfield?  Maybe that will help me get an idea on his dynasty value.  

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5 minutes ago, Mr. Peterson said:

So in terms of rookie picks this year.  What would you offer for Mayfield?  Maybe that will help me get an idea on his dynasty value.  

I just attempted a 1.11 plus Jerrick McKinnon for Mayfield. I'll report back. Start one QB I can't see more than that even though I'm a big booster.

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5 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I just attempted a 1.11 plus Jerrick McKinnon for Mayfield. I'll report back. Start one QB I can't see more than that even though I'm a big booster.

Thank you.  That’s a big help.  

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15 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I just attempted a 1.11 plus Jerrick McKinnon for Mayfield. I'll report back. Start one QB I can't see more than that even though I'm a big booster.

I'm a Baker believer but I am not confident he will ever be more than a midrange QB1. Which is fine, but I just don't like spending (almost anything) for these kind of QBs. I take the McKinnon and 1.11 deal all day here. I still like McKinnons chances to excel in SF. FWIW I own both. I drafted Baker at the end of the 2nd. That's how I prefer to acquire QBs, or as a piece in a bigger deal. 

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm a Baker believer but I am not confident he will ever be more than a midrange QB1. Which is fine, but I just don't like spending (almost anything) for these kind of QBs. I take the McKinnon and 1.11 deal all day here. I still like McKinnons chances to excel in SF. FWIW I own both. I drafted Baker at the end of the 2nd. That's how I prefer to acquire QBs, or as a piece in a bigger deal. 

This is non-ppr so it deflates McKinnon's value. And I'm not a believer.

I actually drafted Mayfield and Darnold in this league. Chose the wrong one to trade. I'm willing to overpay a bit for a good, young QB. It frees up picks for a long time that you might otherwise use chasing. 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

This is non-ppr so it deflates McKinnon's value. And I'm not a believer.

I actually drafted Mayfield and Darnold in this league. Chose the wrong one to trade. I'm willing to overpay a bit for a good, young QB. It frees up picks for a long time that you might otherwise use chasing. 

In which case by all means then. Nothing worse than holding someone you don't want simply because they have value. Getting a return you like makes it satisfying to unload them. I was definitely thinking PPR and I like McKinnon so it's a different calculus. 

Baker is a baller and seems likely to post high TD numbers. I managed to draft him and Lamar Jackson this last year. I've done very well acquiring QBs for cheap in the draft or in trades and then selling for a big premium later. Got Wentz as a cheap throw in 2 years ago and sold him last year for an early 1st. Now I'm going to be looking to acquire another cheap QB or two while I flip either Baker or Lamar for another big profit. 

Moving forward I wonder if any QB is really worth spending much on if they aren't named Mahomes or Rodgers. I would also point out in my leagues we play FFPC style, mostly. So there is often replacement level QB talent available on the wire. 

Edited by barackdhouse

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Recent Baker Mayfield dynasty trades (1QB, PPR)

 

* Goff/Edwards/4th for Mayfield/Zay Jones

* ARob for Mayfield/Cam Jordan/4th

* Mayfield for 1st

* Mayfield for Watkins

* OJ Howard for Mayfield/TreQuan Smith/2nd

 

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12 hours ago, Buckna said:

Their situations are extremely analogous IMO, replaceable talents benefitting from being in high powered offenses with great offensive lines. They are somewhat insulated from threats due to this being a down RB class though. If one were interested in acquiring them, I would wait until after the draft because even a mid to late round RB taken hurts their perceived value IMO, maybe even to the point of making them worth targeting. Right now owners are high on those late season/ post season performances.

I get the concern about the draft or FA signing impacting Mack’s touches but...

...with exception to a handful of backs no one is immune from this. Chubb being the latest example.

...the Colts drafted two RBs last year and they had little impact on Mack’s touches.

Mack has the talent to take advantage of one of the best situations in football—young, improving oline, great QB, good coach. My only concern is durability.

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On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 9:41 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

Yuck on most of those. Looks like people should be sending out offers for Thielen.

I didn't quite get those prices but I did just buy him in FFPC for David Njoku. Classic current production vs young guy in a perfect spot but still seemed a little cheap to me so I bought on a team that is competitive now and has Ertz at TE

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Anyone else tired of the Lev Bell drama? I'm ready to bail and get what I can. Don't know what that is. Considering an offer of Bell/1.1 for Barkley in one NON-PPR league.

Same with Antonio Brown. Even getting $.70 on the dollar would probably sway me.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Anyone else tired of the Lev Bell drama? I'm ready to bail and get what I can. Don't know what that is. Considering an offer of Bell/1.1 for Barkley in one NON-PPR league.

I would do that very quickly to get Barkley.  I would be surprised if the Barkley owner would do it......especially before they know the landing spot for Bell.

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

I would do that very quickly to get Barkley.  I would be surprised if the Barkley owner would do it......especially before they know the landing spot for Bell.

I own Barkley and that’s an instant reject for me. 

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Just now, Gally said:

I would do that very quickly to get Barkley.  I would be surprised if the Barkley owner would do it......especially before they know the landing spot for Bell.

I guess my bigger point is that as the holder of the 1.1 my team stinks and has little depth. And I'm still thinking of dumping Bell.

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Just now, kutta said:

I own Barkley and that’s an instant reject for me. 

You've pretty well established that there's no trade you'd accept for Barkley. Not that I really blame you.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

You've pretty well established that there's no trade you'd accept for Barkley. Not that I really blame you.

Yeah, very true. But I think most Barkley owners feel the same way. It’s just really hard to see a trade that makes sense because everything feels like trading two Nissans for a Mercedes.

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3 minutes ago, kutta said:

Yeah, very true. But I think most Barkley owners feel the same way. It’s just really hard to see a trade that makes sense because everything feels like trading two Nissans for a Mercedes.

I get it completely. FF should be fun and there's no player more fun to have on a roster now than Barkley.

ETA: Barkley is more like a Bugatti!

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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24 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I get it completely. FF should be fun and there's no player more fun to have on a roster now than Barkley.

ETA: Barkley is more like a Bugatti!

Pat Mahomes might have something to say about that.......

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5 minutes ago, Gally said:

Pat Mahomes might have something to say about that.......

He might, but few would listen. 😛

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Anyone else tired of the Lev Bell drama? I'm ready to bail and get what I can. Don't know what that is. Considering an offer of Bell/1.1 for Barkley in one NON-PPR league.

Same with Antonio Brown. Even getting $.70 on the dollar would probably sway me.

 Just ignore all news concerning these two players until we know where they land. You'd be doing yourself a massive disservice to sell at that discount.  I own both in a couple different places and I've just learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

Edited by tangfoot

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11 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

 Just ignore all news concerning these two players until we know where they land. You'd be doing yourself a massive disservice to sell at that discount.  I own both in a couple different places and I've just learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

Lol

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11 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I get the concern about the draft or FA signing impacting Mack’s touches but...

...with exception to a handful of backs no one is immune from this. Chubb being the latest example.

...the Colts drafted two RBs last year and they had little impact on Mack’s touches.

Mack has the talent to take advantage of one of the best situations in football—young, improving oline, great QB, good coach. My only concern is durability.

Don't really agree with your points at all. He clearly lost the receiving role to Hines which many of us owners (myself included) were hoping he would get more of after Gore left. Chubb owners are collectively shrugging and not the slightest bit concerned about the Hunt signing as evidenced by the posts in the threads. Had Indy signed Hunt, Mack's value would have been torpedoed. There are way more than a handful of backs I can name that would be immune to losing value if their team spent a 3rd or later on a RB.

If you want to say that there are only a handful of guys currently being drafted in Mack's range that would be immune to it, sure I might can see that (although I suspect his ADP has jumped quite a bit higher after those big games at the end of the year.) We'll have to agree to disagree on his talent level, I do agree he's good enough to take advantage of playing with Luck and the #3 rated O'line last year. Just look at some of those end of season games! He could be a solid fantasy producer if Indy brings in no challengers at all. I don't agree that he has the talent to hold off any other talented RB's they bring in for more than the short term though, just look at some of those other end of season games when he actually played decent run defenses. I saw a guy with great burst in the 2nd level and an O'line that frequently manhandled other teams to get him to the second level. When they actually played decent run defenses, Mack struggled to do anything. I think @FF Ninja originally said he's always going to be looking over his shoulder, I would definitely agree with that statement, even if he gets the majority of the work in 2019.

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

I think @FF Ninja originally said he's always going to be looking over his shoulder, I would definitely agree with that statement, even if he gets the majority of the work in 2019.

I think it was this wicked smart (and good looking guy) that said it:

 

On ‎2‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 9:48 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

I'd disagree. I like Mack but he's the type of back that will always be looking over his shoulder for the team to upgrade him. Although if the Colts don't bring some one in, you do get another season of RB2 stats.

 

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2 hours ago, Buckna said:

Don't really agree with your points at all. He clearly lost the receiving role to Hines which many of us owners (myself included) were hoping he would get more of after Gore left.

I agree that his receiving was disappointing. I am not sure how much of that was due to missing time. I will have to look at the production when both players were healthy.

 

2 hours ago, Buckna said:

Chubb owners are collectively shrugging and not the slightest bit concerned about the Hunt signing as evidenced by the posts in the threads. Had Indy signed Hunt, Mack's value would have been torpedoed. There are way more than a handful of backs I can name that would be immune to losing value if their team spent a 3rd or later on a RB.

I think the observation about Chubb is hyperbole. Look on Twitter or go to the Dynasty trade thread you will see that the Hunt signing has more than a few owners nervous, right or wrong. LY the Colts drafted two RBs in the 3rd RD or later and Mack still finished as RB21 in ppr format, despite missing 4 games.

2 hours ago, Buckna said:

 If you want to say that there are only a handful of guys currently being drafted in Mack's range that would be immune to it, sure I might can see that (although I suspect his ADP has jumped quite a bit higher after those big games at the end of the year.) We'll have to agree to disagree on his talent level, I do agree he's good enough to take advantage of playing with Luck and the #3 rated O'line last year. Just look at some of those end of season games! He could be a solid fantasy producer if Indy brings in no challengers at all. I don't agree that he has the talent to hold off any other talented RB's they bring in for more than the short term though, just look at some of those other end of season games when he actually played decent run defenses. I saw a guy with great burst in the 2nd level and an O'line that frequently manhandled other teams to get him to the second level. When they actually played decent run defenses, Mack struggled to do anything. I think @FF Ninja originally said he's always going to be looking over his shoulder, I would definitely agree with that statement, even if he gets the majority of the work in 2019.

My initial post was in response to Mack's general value. Many folks seem to be pretty dismissive of his potential. You touch on it here but Mack seems to get discounted by the fear of competition. My point is the scenario you present unfolded LY when the Colts drafted Hines and Wilkins. Mack still got a majority of the touches when available. If the Colts were to sign L. Bell all bets are off. But short of bringing in a uber talent I think the reason for discounting Mack doesn't hold a lot of water.

I think an argument can be made to discount Mack because of durabilities concerns but not competition from a RB drafted in the 3rd round or later. 

Good talk. And disagreement is what makes this hobby fun.

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48 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I think an argument can be made to discount Mack because of durabilities concerns but not competition from a RB drafted in the 3rd round or later. 

I think the concern is the could sign an upgrade in free agency even if they bypass Bell (say Ingram, Coleman or Ajayi) or they could draft a RB in round 1 or 2 since they pick later and may fill other holes in free agency.

And yes other RBs are also susceptible to being replaced as well - but we all know the ones that are safer than others.

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Dr O if the Colts drafted a RB in the first or second rd then yes Mack's value takes a big hit. This gets to a point made earlier, not many RBs are immune to that scenario. For example, what if the Vikings draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd rd or sign one of the FA you mention? How about the value for D. Freeman, McKinnon, Michel, L. Miller, Fournette, D, Williams? 

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3 hours ago, Buckna said:

Chubb owners are collectively shrugging and not the slightest bit concerned about the Hunt signing as evidenced by the posts in the threads.

I think that's the realistic view to take.  Yes, there's a hit to Chubb's value when they are both on the field, but when will that be?  Hunt's out at least 6 games, and more likely 12+.  He's only on a one-year contract, so it shouldn't affect Chubb at all in 2020.

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22 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Dr O if the Colts drafted a RB in the first or second rd then yes Mack's value takes a big hit. This gets to a point made earlier, not many RBs are immune to that scenario. For example, what if the Vikings draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd rd or sign one of the FA you mention? How about the value for D. Freeman, McKinnon, Michel, L. Miller, Fournette, D, Williams? 

Yes of course those other backs perceived value would fall in that scenario but then we have to ask ourselves the likelihood of that happening. I guess it comes down to where we (and the respective NFL teams) rank Mack's talent level and the talent level of those other backs.

To me, while I like Mack and own him in one league, it's safe to say he's in the bottom half of starting RBs from a talent level perspective (Bottom 16).

As to those other backs I'm sure many expect that Lamar Miller, Damien Williams and maybe even Jerrick McKinnon or Freeman could be replaced sooner rather than later.

The Jaguars and Pats just spent first round picks on Fournette and Sony - how likely is it that they will do so again so soon?

The Vikings spent an early second on Cook and he's looked the part when healthy -  how likely is it that they will look to replace him.

Mack is a good RB and was productive due to the Colts very good o-line and the threat of Luck and the passing game. The Colts may very well think they could do better though and have a ton of cap space (also an important factor) to sign an upgrade at RB or if they fill other holes use a high pick at RB, so Mack could be vulnerable.

It's a realistic scenario that the Colts will upgrade this season. It's not realistic the Pats will. That doesn't mean that the Colts will - but that perception may become reality. If they do not address the RB position I fully expect him to have another productive season and maybe even solidify himself in Ballard's eyes and keep the job for a few more years. Part of the strategy in this game is knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.  

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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No doubt, but this is all speculation when it comes to Mack's value. Again my point isn't as much about elevating Mack but the thought process behind the devaluation. IMO it is as likely or more so that several of the teams I mentioned above draft a RB early. There seems to be some inconsistency in the thought process. 

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In my belief the Colts will not take an RB before round 5. Mack is an above average talent and excelled behind the Colts OL. Drafting a RB would be way down the list of needs.  Depth would be the reason for drafting an RB in this draft, not to replace Mack.

Edited by smbkrypt24
Meant wouldn't draft in rounds1-4. Changed from 4 to 5 to reflect my thoughts.

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Just now, 32 Counter Pass said:

No doubt, but this is all speculation when it comes to Mack's value. Again my point isn't as much about elevating Mack but the thought process behind the devaluation. IMO it is as likely or more so that several of the teams I mentioned above draft a RB early. There seems to be some inconsistency in the thought process. 

I don't think there is. If you try and sell guys like Damien Williams, Jerrick McKinnon and Lamar Miller right now you won't get as much as you would in June once we know that they survived free agency and the draft and the same applies to Mack.

The rest of those guys are pretty safe in their roles for the reasons I already mentioned.  

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't think there is. If you try and sell guys like Damien Williams, Jerrick McKinnon and Lamar Miller right now you won't get as much as you would in June once we know that they survived free agency and the draft and the same applies to Mack.

The rest of those guys are pretty safe in their roles for the reasons I already mentioned.  

you really never know who is safe, I agree with your point but there are for sure some guys whose value will tank, depending where L Bell winds up, Josh Jacobs,etc.  The year Gurley came out, Tre Mason was coming off a fairly decent rookie year and nobody forecasted that as Gurley's landing spot. I always try not to buy any of the non super stud rbs until free agency and draft are over

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2 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Good talk. And disagreement is what makes this hobby fun.

Back at you! I do think if the Colts take a 3rd round or later RB it will hurt Mack's perceived value. I was pretty gung-ho in the Damien Williams thread that he could likely lose his job to any warm body the Chiefs bring in. Then someone pointed out that later round RB's rarely unseat the incumbent in year one. I think that would apply to Mack where he would likely hold off any non-big FA or higher round RB challenger for the balance of the season (assuming good health of course.) However, I do think the certainty of Indy drafting someone would still cause his trade value to take a hit, maybe even to the point where I would be a definite buyer of Mack for the short-term value he's going to have in in 2020. Just look at last year, there were posters saying Wilkins was the best RB on the roster and going to take over and he was a 5th rounder.

Edited by Buckna

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