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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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28 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Unless the perfect player falls into the perfect situation, I would say that Guice is worth at least 1.01 and 1.06-ish in this draft.

 

Off injury, in super flex? Normal leagues you might argue he's equal to the 1 this year but I wouldn't give that much. 

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13 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Off injury, in super flex? Normal leagues you might argue he's equal to the 1 this year but I wouldn't give that much. 

He would pretty easily be the best-rated RB in this draft class, and by a decent margin. This QB class is also the worst in years, so it being a SF draft has no bearing to me 

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What type of WR or RB would you all want for the 1.01 rookie pick this year? Trying to gauge its value and everyone keeps saying it’s a down year for talent at the top. How far down is it?

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

What type of WR or RB would you all want for the 1.01 rookie pick this year? Trying to gauge its value and everyone keeps saying it’s a down year for talent at the top. How far down is it?

Really good question. I have the 1 in only one league, where I'm certainly willing to trade it. Last year I actually traded Brandon Cooks and Kareem Hunt for the 1 (nice deal in hindsight), this year you probably wouldn't get half that value. although that actually sounds like a reasonable deal this year. (with Hunt's value through the floor). 

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

What type of WR or RB would you all want for the 1.01 rookie pick this year? Trying to gauge its value and everyone keeps saying it’s a down year for talent at the top. How far down is it?

Rb 15 to 20

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1 hour ago, Gandalf said:

What type of WR or RB would you all want for the 1.01 rookie pick this year? Trying to gauge its value and everyone keeps saying it’s a down year for talent at the top. How far down is it?

ADP 30ish I'd say.  

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2 hours ago, Gandalf said:

What type of WR or RB would you all want for the 1.01 rookie pick this year? Trying to gauge its value and everyone keeps saying it’s a down year for talent at the top. How far down is it?

This is a great question to consider as the focus towards the draft process begins to become more clear. Obviously, every owners individual team situation, league scoring, etc... have an impact. I'm going to treat this question as if I was in a start up dynasty draft. To me, there is no uber stud in this class and draft landing spots do make a difference. In addition, there inevitably will be at least a couple of prospects that get the "shiny new toy antenna" up as the draft draws near, thus inflating actual value. With my personal bias claims out in the open, here's how I would unpack this question:

Group #1 (Players I, under no circumstances would deal for the 1.01)

1. Zeke

2. Saquon

3. Gurley

4. CMC

5. Kamara

6. Gordon

7. Connor

8. David Johnson

9. Mixon

10. Chubb

11. Bell

12. Dalvin Cook

13. Hopkins

14. Adams

15. Julio

16. M. Thomas

17. Odell

18. T. Hill\

19. JuJu

20. Evans

21. Amari Cooper

22. Mahomes

23.  Kelce

 

So, as of this writing, with all the available information, the best I would offer for the 1.01 is pick #24 overall in a start up.

Group #2 (Players that I value similarly to pick 1.01- thus, depending on my team and other information that may emerge, would consider dealing away for 1.01).

24. Fournette

25. Michel

26. Lindsay

27. A. Jones

28. Rodgers

29. Luck

30. A. Brown

31. TY Hilton

32. AJ Green

33. Diggs

34. Thielen

Any player nor on the above list, at this point, I would deal straight up for 1.01

Examples- B. Cooks, D. Watson, M. Mack, K. Johnson

So, in my humble opinion, minus any mistakes I have made in quickly dissecting this list, the value of 1.01 would be anywhere between pick #24 and pick #35. Would love to hear the perspective of others.

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16 hours ago, -OZ- said:

I was offered Guice for my 1.03, I rejected mostly because I want to see where a few players fall but might reconsider. 

If we threw Guice back into the rookie pool he would be my 1.01 pick no matter where any of the rookie RBs end up. He’s just better than any of them imo.

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A lot of people have short term memory. Guice is going to be a monster in DC. He runs hard, he runs fast, and when the Skins have all their line healthy, it really is one of the better units in the league. They made 67 year old AP look pretty damn good last year. 

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3 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

A lot of people have short term memory. Guice is going to be a monster in DC. He runs hard, he runs fast, and when the Skins have all their line healthy, it really is one of the better units in the league. They made 67 year old AP look pretty damn good last year. 

Which is pretty much never.  

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Just now, skinfanjon said:

Which is pretty much never.  

And even with all the injuries they had, look what AP did last year. And pretty sure Washington had one of the most injured teams (as far as total number of players on IR) in the entire league. And we still had a 67 year old 1000 yard rusher. 

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10 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

And even with all the injuries they had, look what AP did last year. And pretty sure Washington had one of the most injured teams (as far as total number of players on IR) in the entire league. And we still had a 67 year old 1000 yard rusher. 

In fairness, that elderly gentleman is one of the all time greats. 

Maybe Guice can come close to that production (most likely not AD's Viking years)

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If we threw Guice back into the rookie pool he would be my 1.01 pick no matter where any of the rookie RBs end up. He’s just better than any of them imo.

I'd be 50/50 on that right now, but I can't outwardly dismiss that claim out of hand. I know talent purists would pushback on this but I feel landing spot matters more than usual this year. There are no elite RBs from a purely physical standpoint (we've been spoiled with Zeke and SB) , so if KC uses an early pick on RB, I'd take that player over Guice. 

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10 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

And even with all the injuries they had, look what AP did last year. And pretty sure Washington had one of the most injured teams (as far as total number of players on IR) in the entire league. And we still had a 67 year old 1000 yard rusher. 

In fairness, that elderly gentleman is one of the all time greats. 

Maybe Guice can come close to that production (most likely not AD's Viking years)

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13 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

And even with all the injuries they had, look what AP did last year. And pretty sure Washington had one of the most injured teams (as far as total number of players on IR) in the entire league. And we still had a 67 year old 1000 yard rusher. 

We've been one of the most injured teams three years running.  It's no longer bad luck.  

I'm a big Guice fan, but we are going to be quite bad the next two seasons.  Not sure he's going to have a chance to put up big numbers, particularly if Thompson manages to play a few games per season and eat at his receptions.

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On 3/1/2019 at 3:49 PM, -OZ- said:

Curious - for people playing in superflex leagues. How do you value the very good QBs? 

I'd think Mahomes is up there with Barkley, but what value do you place on the next tier of QB like Rodgers, luck, Wentz, Wilson, etc? 

I'm lucky enough to have 3 QBs I like a lot (Goff, Wentz, Mayfield) but really need a wr1.  Would asking for a guy like Hopkins be outlandish? What about juju or Adams?  Trying to not make this an assistant coach post...

I think these guys are all in the same tier. Or at least pretty damn close. It should be more like Hopkins or Evans/Diggs. Damn tempted to take Adams as first WR off the board this year. 

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Hadn't seen any deals lately for either player so I wanted to post some thoughts on a trade I got this morning.  

Had an offer in my inbox, his Doug Baldwin for my Ronald Jones.  Now I'm not a big RoJo fan anymore and although his value has plummeted I seriously considered taking the offer, but I feel like the chance that RoJo doesn't get torpedo'd by the NFL draft is what I'd rather take than an oft injured 30 year old WR.  Those guys just have so little value in FFPC where roster spots are important.  Same with RoJo who might be a cut of mine when we drop to 16 but at least the upside is there if I do end up keeping him.  

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Hadn't seen any deals lately for either player so I wanted to post some thoughts on a trade I got this morning.  

Had an offer in my inbox, his Doug Baldwin for my Ronald Jones.  Now I'm not a big RoJo fan anymore and although his value has plummeted I seriously considered taking the offer, but I feel like the chance that RoJo doesn't get torpedo'd by the NFL draft is what I'd rather take than an oft injured 30 year old WR.  Those guys just have so little value in FFPC where roster spots are important.  Same with RoJo who might be a cut of mine when we drop to 16 but at least the upside is there if I do end up keeping him.  

My experience is people who invested a decent pick last year in RoJo don't want to lose by selling for a lot less. I've tried scooping him up in a couple leagues as a moon-shot.  non-RoJo owners won't pay much for the very reason you described: the risk.

I agree with holding him vs Baldwin. If he does pan out, the payoff is much greater (production, trade value) than Baldwin, IMO. Worth the risk.

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On 3/1/2019 at 3:49 PM, -OZ- said:

I'm lucky enough to have 3 QBs I like a lot (Goff, Wentz, Mayfield) but really need a wr1.  Would asking for a guy like Hopkins be outlandish? What about juju or Adams?

I play in one 10 team non-PPR SF league. For me in that league: Hopkins > Wentz > Mayfield > Juju > Goff > Adams.

I don't own any of those players other than Juju in that league, and I would trade him for Wentz or Mayfield without a second thought.

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52 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I play in one 10 team non-PPR SF league. For me in that league: Hopkins > Wentz > Mayfield > Juju > Goff > Adams.

I don't own any of those players other than Juju in that league, and I would trade him for Wentz or Mayfield without a second thought.

I had been offered thielen and St brown (I'm actually fairly big on him) for Wentz. I ended up getting thielen and St brown for the 5, 13 and 22. 

Now I considered trading Wentz for Mariota, DJ Moore and a first, other guy offered a second, I don't think that's enough.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I play in one 10 team non-PPR SF league. For me in that league: Hopkins > Wentz > Mayfield > Juju > Goff > Adams.

I don't own any of those players other than Juju in that league, and I would trade him for Wentz or Mayfield without a second thought.

I would not value QBs that high in a 10-team league. 14- or 16-team, sure. There’s a lot of QBs you can roster that are far cheaper and I would say that only Mahomes is worth more than Juju in such a small league size. 

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13 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I would not value QBs that high in a 10-team league. 14- or 16-team, sure. There’s a lot of QBs you can roster that are far cheaper and I would say that only Mahomes is worth more than Juju in such a small league size. 

I made the comment about my specific league.

  • It is non-PPR, with 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving. That devalues WRs and TEs.
  • Passing TDs are worth 6 points. That increases QB value.
  • The starting lineup requirement is 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, 1SF (Q/R/W/T), and 2F (R/W/T). It is typical that each team starts 2-3 WRs most weeks... so less than 30 WRs start most weeks.
  • Roster size is 22. Currently rostered: 42 QBs, 62 RBs, 67 WRs, 21 TEs, 10 Ks, 16 DSTs (yes, 1 owner has 2 open roster spots). There are no useful QBs on the waiver wire, but with just 67 WRs rostered, there are always WRs available.

Last season in that league:

  • 16 of the top 17 ppg scorers were QBs (Gurley was #4).
  • The top ppg WR was Hill, who was #36 overall in ppg. Juju was WR10 and #65 overall.

Lineup requirements, scoring system, and owner tendencies matter. :shrug:  

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Has anyone tried to acquire WR Christian Kirk? If so, what’s the general asking price in FFPC? I have GM’s telling me they value him more than 1.1. 

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38 minutes ago, Tejas said:

Has anyone tried to acquire WR Christian Kirk? If so, what’s the general asking price in FFPC? I have GM’s telling me they value him more than 1.1. 

I own him in a few leagues and he's a definite hold, but that's silly talk to pass on the 1.1 if someone offered it for him. 

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5 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I made the comment about my specific league.

  • It is non-PPR, with 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving. That devalues WRs and TEs.
  • Passing TDs are worth 6 points. That increases QB value.
  • The starting lineup requirement is 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, 1SF (Q/R/W/T), and 2F (R/W/T). It is typical that each team starts 2-3 WRs most weeks... so less than 30 WRs start most weeks.
  • Roster size is 22. Currently rostered: 42 QBs, 62 RBs, 67 WRs, 21 TEs, 10 Ks, 16 DSTs (yes, 1 owner has 2 open roster spots). There are no useful QBs on the waiver wire, but with just 67 WRs rostered, there are always WRs available.

Last season in that league:

  • 16 of the top 17 ppg scorers were QBs (Gurley was #4).
  • The top ppg WR was Hill, who was #36 overall in ppg. Juju was WR10 and #65 overall.

Lineup requirements, scoring system, and owner tendencies matter. :shrug:  

You’re at FBG, so clearly you have heard of VBD.  Just because you have a high number of QBs at the top of your scoring system does not mean that they are necessarily valuable in relation to other positions. 

Basically what you are telling me is that there is not a ton of value between say, QB4 and QB16, so why pay premium prices for them?

Edited by tangfoot
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11 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You’re at FBG, so clearly you have heard of VBD.  Just because you have a high number of QBs at the top of your scoring system does not mean that they are necessarily valuable in relation to other positions. 

Basically what you are telling me is that there is not a ton of value between say, QB4 and QB16, so why pay premium prices for them?

You make a lot of assumptions about leagues you aren't familiar with. Here are some QB and WR spreads from 2018:

  • QB4 (Luck) - QB16 (Mayfield): difference of 3.96 ppg
  • WR4 (Hopkins) - WR20 (Allen): difference of 3.93 ppg

Please explain VBD to me as it relates to these spreads. :popcorn: 

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On 2/28/2019 at 3:23 PM, Dr. Dan said:

Where do people put Aaron Jones value

PPR trade

Aaron Jones and Clement 

for

Kareem Hunt and Coutee

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3 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

You make a lot of assumptions about leagues you aren't familiar with. Here are some QB and WR spreads from 2018:

  • QB4 (Luck) - QB16 (Mayfield): difference of 3.96 ppg
  • WR4 (Hopkins) - WR20 (Allen): difference of 3.93 ppg

Please explain VBD to me as it relates to these spreads. :popcorn: 

You’re saying that Mayfield/Hopkins scores the same as Luck/Allen. 

You just proved that juju is worth far more than Wentz. 

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3 hours ago, Tejas said:

Has anyone tried to acquire WR Christian Kirk? If so, what’s the general asking price in FFPC? I have GM’s telling me they value him more than 1.1. 

Here are some actual FFPC deals, all after 2/2:

Kirk, 2.07, 2.08 for Landry 

Kirk, Pettis, 1.09 for Allen

Kirk, 1.08, 4.10 for C. Ridey, 3.07

Kirk for John Brown,Godwin, 5.03

Kirk, 1.05 for Hilton, 2.08

Kirk for Chris Carson, Randall Cobb

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9 minutes ago, Leroy's Aces said:

PPR trade

Aaron Jones and Clement 

for

Kareem Hunt and Coutee

That doesn't exactly help cement Aaron Jones' value since Hunt is probably seen from anywhere between a 5th round startup pick to a 15 round startup pick, just depending on who you ask.  

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5 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

That doesn't exactly help cement Aaron Jones' value since Hunt is probably seen from anywhere between a 5th round startup pick to a 15 round startup pick, just depending on who you ask.  

Here are 5 more, all FFPC in Feb.

A. Jones for Godwin, 2020 2nd and 3rd

A. Jones for Tevin Coleman, Ebron

A. Jones, 4.04 for Mack, James Washington

A. Jones, Robert Woods for Chubb, Samuel

A. Jones, 2019 1st for Kittle, 2019 2nd.

Is that better?

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14 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

That doesn't exactly help cement Aaron Jones' value since Hunt is probably seen from anywhere between a 5th round startup pick to a 15 round startup pick, just depending on who you ask.  

Honestly if someone thinks he's only worth a 15 round startup they are not worth asking.

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29 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You’re saying that Mayfield/Hopkins scores the same as Luck/Allen. 

You just proved that juju is worth far more than Wentz. 

Not true at all. In 2017 when healthy, Wentz was #2 in the league, scoring 27.7 ppg. Juju's best season was 2018, when he was WR #10 and #65 overall, scoring 13.8 ppg. Wentz is about 4 years older, but plays a position where elite players play well for 5+ years longer than at Juju's position.

Try again.

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On 3/3/2019 at 7:41 PM, ffmail4me said:

I own him in a few leagues and he's a definite hold, but that's silly talk to pass on the 1.1 if someone offered it for him. 

Yeah, that's crazy imo.

I am considering trading the 1 for Kirk and the 1.04, that seems much more in line with reality

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In one of my FFPC leagues, an owner sent out a message saying Gurley and Melvin Gordon are available.  An hour later, another owner offered him his 2020 1st for Gurley, Kenyan Drake and a 4th.  20 minutes after that the trade was reversed by the commissioner (for good reason).  

But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is.  Do people still view him as a top5 dynasty RB with his knee questions and likely decreased workload?  At worst he's a top10 dynasty RB right?  So what is the right price.  Might be a good time to buy him.  

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12 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

In one of my FFPC leagues, an owner sent out a message saying Gurley and Melvin Gordon are available.  An hour later, another owner offered him his 2020 1st for Gurley, Kenyan Drake and a 4th.  20 minutes after that the trade was reversed by the commissioner (for good reason).  

But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is.  Do people still view him as a top5 dynasty RB with his knee questions and likely decreased workload?  At worst he's a top10 dynasty RB right?  So what is the right price.  Might be a good time to buy him.  

What was the good reason?  I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion. 

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

What was the good reason?  I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion. 

a 1st for Drake/Gurley and a 4th is insanely light I would think.  Especially when his post about Gurley/Gordon for sale include he wants "a 1st and a young stud RB".  

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

What was the good reason?  I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion. 

A future 1st for Gurley, Drake, and a 4th doesn’t appear to be collusion?  

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

A future 1st for Gurley, Drake, and a 4th doesn’t appear to be collusion?  

After the former Gurley owner offered him to the league? No.

Bad move, reeks of desperation / pessimist, but not collusion

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

A future 1st for Gurley, Drake, and a 4th doesn’t appear to be collusion?  

Not necessarily.  Like I said, I wouldn't have done that but if someone thinks Gurley's knee/workload is a huge chronic problem and that Drake will never get the ball to be a consistent player then getting a 1st in what many say is a loaded draft could be useful.  Lopsided...yes........but not sure collusion without more to the story. 

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4 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

a 1st for Drake/Gurley and a 4th is insanely light I would think.  Especially when his post about Gurley/Gordon for sale include he wants "a 1st and a young stud RB".  

You didn't say that in the original but the fact that he put it out to the entire league would lead me to the conclusion that there was no collusion involved.  He seems to have taken the first offer sent his way.......most likely a terrible, desperate move but I still don't see why it should automatically be reversed since it doesn't appear to be collusion.

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14 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

After the former Gurley owner offered him to the league? No.

Bad move, reeks of desperation / pessimist, but not collusion

 

14 minutes ago, Gally said:

Not necessarily.  Like I said, I wouldn't have done that but if someone thinks Gurley's knee/workload is a huge chronic problem and that Drake will never get the ball to be a consistent player then getting a 1st in what many say is a loaded draft could be useful.  Lopsided...yes........but not sure collusion without more to the story. 

Agreed on both accounts.  I was more or less being ok with the fact that the commish reversed this, and continued to use the word collusion.  Im sure it’s unlikely to be collusion, but it’s pretty tough to argue that the Gurley/Drake owner got about 30% of FMV for the package that he shipped away.  There’s really no rational explanation for taking that offer, no matter how down on Gurley/Drake you might be.

Edited by SayWhat?

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50 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is.

I traded him twice this past weekend,  listed both trades in trade thread and it brought a little discussion back with it.

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Either way it was reversed from the commissioner's standpoint.  Didn't send out an explanation because I wouldn't think that needs one.  Probably right in assuming he's scared off Gurley and took the first offer that came his way.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Either way it was reversed from the commissioner's standpoint.  Didn't send out an explanation because I wouldn't think that needs one.  Probably right in assuming he's scared off Gurley and took the first offer that came his way.  

Possible it was just fat fingered and reversed for that reason?

I don’t see FFPC reversing a lot of trades, especially that quickly.

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49 minutes ago, bombjack said:

Possible it was just fat fingered and reversed for that reason?

I don’t see FFPC reversing a lot of trades, especially that quickly.

Possibly that he meant to add a player I suppose.  Still made me question Gurley's real value.  

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4 hours ago, Gally said:

What was the good reason?  I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion. 

The trade that was offered was not supposed to include Gurley. It was offered incorrectly.

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10 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

What's the difference between Kittle and Engram in standard leagues?

Consistency, QB play, health........all heavily favor Kittle. 

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9 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

What's the difference between Kittle and Engram in standard leagues?

Afraid I don't know because I don't play in standard leagues but with so much smoke around OBJ getting moved if I was looking to buy Engram I'd hurry up and if I owned Engram he'd be off the market.

I can say in any format if OBJ is moved I would put Engram as TE4.

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