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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
-OZ-
Footballguy
Really good question. I have the 1 in only one league, where I'm certainly willing to trade it. Last year I actually traded Brandon Cooks and Kareem Hunt for the 1 (nice deal in hindsight), this year you probably wouldn't get half that value. although that actually sounds like a reasonable deal this year. (with Hunt's value through the floor).
Zyphros
Footballguy
This is a great question to consider as the focus towards the draft process begins to become more clear. Obviously, every owners individual team situation, league scoring, etc... have an impact. I'm going to treat this question as if I was in a start up dynasty draft. To me, there is no uber stud in this class and draft landing spots do make a difference. In addition, there inevitably will be at least a couple of prospects that get the "shiny new toy antenna" up as the draft draws near, thus inflating actual value. With my personal bias claims out in the open, here's how I would unpack this question:
Group #1 (Players I, under no circumstances would deal for the 1.01)
1. Zeke
2. Saquon
3. Gurley
4. CMC
5. Kamara
6. Gordon
7. Connor
8. David Johnson
9. Mixon
10. Chubb
11. Bell
12. Dalvin Cook
13. Hopkins
14. Adams
15. Julio
16. M. Thomas
17. Odell
18. T. Hill\
19. JuJu
20. Evans
21. Amari Cooper
22. Mahomes
23. Kelce
So, as of this writing, with all the available information, the best I would offer for the 1.01 is pick #24 overall in a start up.
Group #2 (Players that I value similarly to pick 1.01- thus, depending on my team and other information that may emerge, would consider dealing away for 1.01).
24. Fournette
25. Michel
26. Lindsay
27. A. Jones
28. Rodgers
29. Luck
30. A. Brown
31. TY Hilton
32. AJ Green
33. Diggs
34. Thielen
Any player nor on the above list, at this point, I would deal straight up for 1.01
Examples- B. Cooks, D. Watson, M. Mack, K. Johnson
So, in my humble opinion, minus any mistakes I have made in quickly dissecting this list, the value of 1.01 would be anywhere between pick #24 and pick #35. Would love to hear the perspective of others.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If we threw Guice back into the rookie pool he would be my 1.01 pick no matter where any of the rookie RBs end up. He’s just better than any of them imo.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
And even with all the injuries they had, look what AP did last year. And pretty sure Washington had one of the most injured teams (as far as total number of players on IR) in the entire league. And we still had a 67 year old 1000 yard rusher.
-OZ-
Footballguy
In fairness, that elderly gentleman is one of the all time greats.
Maybe Guice can come close to that production (most likely not AD's Viking years)
I'd be 50/50 on that right now, but I can't outwardly dismiss that claim out of hand. I know talent purists would pushback on this but I feel landing spot matters more than usual this year. There are no elite RBs from a purely physical standpoint (we've been spoiled with Zeke and SB) , so if KC uses an early pick on RB, I'd take that player over Guice.
-OZ-
Footballguy
In fairness, that elderly gentleman is one of the all time greats.
Maybe Guice can come close to that production (most likely not AD's Viking years)
skinfanjon
Footballguy
We've been one of the most injured teams three years running. It's no longer bad luck.
I'm a big Guice fan, but we are going to be quite bad the next two seasons. Not sure he's going to have a chance to put up big numbers, particularly if Thompson manages to play a few games per season and eat at his receptions.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I think these guys are all in the same tier. Or at least pretty damn close. It should be more like Hopkins or Evans/Diggs. Damn tempted to take Adams as first WR off the board this year.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Hadn't seen any deals lately for either player so I wanted to post some thoughts on a trade I got this morning.
Had an offer in my inbox, his Doug Baldwin for my Ronald Jones. Now I'm not a big RoJo fan anymore and although his value has plummeted I seriously considered taking the offer, but I feel like the chance that RoJo doesn't get torpedo'd by the NFL draft is what I'd rather take than an oft injured 30 year old WR. Those guys just have so little value in FFPC where roster spots are important. Same with RoJo who might be a cut of mine when we drop to 16 but at least the upside is there if I do end up keeping him.
Had an offer in my inbox, his Doug Baldwin for my Ronald Jones. Now I'm not a big RoJo fan anymore and although his value has plummeted I seriously considered taking the offer, but I feel like the chance that RoJo doesn't get torpedo'd by the NFL draft is what I'd rather take than an oft injured 30 year old WR. Those guys just have so little value in FFPC where roster spots are important. Same with RoJo who might be a cut of mine when we drop to 16 but at least the upside is there if I do end up keeping him.
My experience is people who invested a decent pick last year in RoJo don't want to lose by selling for a lot less. I've tried scooping him up in a couple leagues as a moon-shot. non-RoJo owners won't pay much for the very reason you described: the risk.
I agree with holding him vs Baldwin. If he does pan out, the payoff is much greater (production, trade value) than Baldwin, IMO. Worth the risk.
Tau837
Footballguy
I play in one 10 team non-PPR SF league. For me in that league: Hopkins > Wentz > Mayfield > Juju > Goff > Adams.
I don't own any of those players other than Juju in that league, and I would trade him for Wentz or Mayfield without a second thought.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I had been offered thielen and St brown (I'm actually fairly big on him) for Wentz. I ended up getting thielen and St brown for the 5, 13 and 22.
Now I considered trading Wentz for Mariota, DJ Moore and a first, other guy offered a second, I don't think that's enough.
I would not value QBs that high in a 10-team league. 14- or 16-team, sure. There’s a lot of QBs you can roster that are far cheaper and I would say that only Mahomes is worth more than Juju in such a small league size.
Tau837
Footballguy
I made the comment about my specific league.
- It is non-PPR, with 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving. That devalues WRs and TEs.
- Passing TDs are worth 6 points. That increases QB value.
- The starting lineup requirement is 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, 1SF (Q/R/W/T), and 2F (R/W/T). It is typical that each team starts 2-3 WRs most weeks... so less than 30 WRs start most weeks.
- Roster size is 22. Currently rostered: 42 QBs, 62 RBs, 67 WRs, 21 TEs, 10 Ks, 16 DSTs (yes, 1 owner has 2 open roster spots). There are no useful QBs on the waiver wire, but with just 67 WRs rostered, there are always WRs available.
- 16 of the top 17 ppg scorers were QBs (Gurley was #4).
- The top ppg WR was Hill, who was #36 overall in ppg. Juju was WR10 and #65 overall.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I own him in a few leagues and he's a definite hold, but that's silly talk to pass on the 1.1 if someone offered it for him.
You’re at FBG, so clearly you have heard of VBD. Just because you have a high number of QBs at the top of your scoring system does not mean that they are necessarily valuable in relation to other positions.I made the comment about my specific league.
Last season in that league:
- It is non-PPR, with 0.5 points per first down rushing/receiving. That devalues WRs and TEs.
- Passing TDs are worth 6 points. That increases QB value.
- The starting lineup requirement is 1Q, 1R, 2W, 1T, 1K, 1DST, 1SF (Q/R/W/T), and 2F (R/W/T). It is typical that each team starts 2-3 WRs most weeks... so less than 30 WRs start most weeks.
- Roster size is 22. Currently rostered: 42 QBs, 62 RBs, 67 WRs, 21 TEs, 10 Ks, 16 DSTs (yes, 1 owner has 2 open roster spots). There are no useful QBs on the waiver wire, but with just 67 WRs rostered, there are always WRs available.
Lineup requirements, scoring system, and owner tendencies matter.
- 16 of the top 17 ppg scorers were QBs (Gurley was #4).
- The top ppg WR was Hill, who was #36 overall in ppg. Juju was WR10 and #65 overall.
Basically what you are telling me is that there is not a ton of value between say, QB4 and QB16, so why pay premium prices for them?
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Tau837
Footballguy
You make a lot of assumptions about leagues you aren't familiar with. Here are some QB and WR spreads from 2018:
- QB4 (Luck) - QB16 (Mayfield): difference of 3.96 ppg
- WR4 (Hopkins) - WR20 (Allen): difference of 3.93 ppg
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
You’re saying that Mayfield/Hopkins scores the same as Luck/Allen.You make a lot of assumptions about leagues you aren't familiar with. Here are some QB and WR spreads from 2018:
Please explain VBD to me as it relates to these spreads.
- QB4 (Luck) - QB16 (Mayfield): difference of 3.96 ppg
- WR4 (Hopkins) - WR20 (Allen): difference of 3.93 ppg
You just proved that juju is worth far more than Wentz.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
Here are some actual FFPC deals, all after 2/2:
Kirk, 2.07, 2.08 for Landry
Kirk, Pettis, 1.09 for Allen
Kirk, 1.08, 4.10 for C. Ridey, 3.07
Kirk for John Brown,Godwin, 5.03
Kirk, 1.05 for Hilton, 2.08
Kirk for Chris Carson, Randall Cobb
Zyphros
Footballguy
That doesn't exactly help cement Aaron Jones' value since Hunt is probably seen from anywhere between a 5th round startup pick to a 15 round startup pick, just depending on who you ask.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
Here are 5 more, all FFPC in Feb.
A. Jones for Godwin, 2020 2nd and 3rd
A. Jones for Tevin Coleman, Ebron
A. Jones, 4.04 for Mack, James Washington
A. Jones, Robert Woods for Chubb, Samuel
A. Jones, 2019 1st for Kittle, 2019 2nd.
Is that better?
Honestly if someone thinks he's only worth a 15 round startup they are not worth asking.
Tau837
Footballguy
Not true at all. In 2017 when healthy, Wentz was #2 in the league, scoring 27.7 ppg. Juju's best season was 2018, when he was WR #10 and #65 overall, scoring 13.8 ppg. Wentz is about 4 years older, but plays a position where elite players play well for 5+ years longer than at Juju's position.
Try again.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Yeah, that's crazy imo.
I am considering trading the 1 for Kirk and the 1.04, that seems much more in line with reality
Zyphros
Footballguy
In one of my FFPC leagues, an owner sent out a message saying Gurley and Melvin Gordon are available. An hour later, another owner offered him his 2020 1st for Gurley, Kenyan Drake and a 4th. 20 minutes after that the trade was reversed by the commissioner (for good reason).
But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is. Do people still view him as a top5 dynasty RB with his knee questions and likely decreased workload? At worst he's a top10 dynasty RB right? So what is the right price. Might be a good time to buy him.
But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is. Do people still view him as a top5 dynasty RB with his knee questions and likely decreased workload? At worst he's a top10 dynasty RB right? So what is the right price. Might be a good time to buy him.
What was the good reason? I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion.
Zyphros
Footballguy
a 1st for Drake/Gurley and a 4th is insanely light I would think. Especially when his post about Gurley/Gordon for sale include he wants "a 1st and a young stud RB".
-OZ-
Footballguy
After the former Gurley owner offered him to the league? No.
Bad move, reeks of desperation / pessimist, but not collusion
Not necessarily. Like I said, I wouldn't have done that but if someone thinks Gurley's knee/workload is a huge chronic problem and that Drake will never get the ball to be a consistent player then getting a 1st in what many say is a loaded draft could be useful. Lopsided...yes........but not sure collusion without more to the story.
You didn't say that in the original but the fact that he put it out to the entire league would lead me to the conclusion that there was no collusion involved. He seems to have taken the first offer sent his way.......most likely a terrible, desperate move but I still don't see why it should automatically be reversed since it doesn't appear to be collusion.
Agreed on both accounts. I was more or less being ok with the fact that the commish reversed this, and continued to use the word collusion. Im sure it’s unlikely to be collusion, but it’s pretty tough to argue that the Gurley/Drake owner got about 30% of FMV for the package that he shipped away. There’s really no rational explanation for taking that offer, no matter how down on Gurley/Drake you might be.
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I traded him twice this past weekend, listed both trades in trade thread and it brought a little discussion back with it.
Possible it was just fat fingered and reversed for that reason?
I don’t see FFPC reversing a lot of trades, especially that quickly.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Possibly that he meant to add a player I suppose. Still made me question Gurley's real value.
Leroy's Aces
Footballguy
The trade that was offered was not supposed to include Gurley. It was offered incorrectly.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
What's the difference between Kittle and Engram in standard leagues?
Afraid I don't know because I don't play in standard leagues but with so much smoke around OBJ getting moved if I was looking to buy Engram I'd hurry up and if I owned Engram he'd be off the market.
I can say in any format if OBJ is moved I would put Engram as TE4.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Where do people put value of Derrick Henry compared to Aaron Jones?
