Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Rig24 88]

5 hours ago, DreamTheater said:

was offered Miller, Foreman, 2019 1.4 and 2020 1st for CMC in a PPR.   I am thinking no way....Not even close....

I think you should have been offended.  Formal complaint would be acceptable.

[jeaton6 637]

On 3/26/2019 at 12:25 AM, Unwrittenlaw said:

Crazy....

 

Best Dalvin Cook will ever be is Gerald Riggs/Neal Anderson..if Dalvin Cook didn't break out his 2nd yr. I give Cook 3 yrs of production.

The fact that Dalvin Cook's Attempts per game dropped from 18 to 12 from yr 1 to yr 2 is a major red flag.

Someone quoting players from the 80’s as comps tells me all I need to know.....

[Unwrittenlaw 24]

17 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Someone quoting players from the 80’s as comps tells me all I need to know.....

They're not comps.

Edited March 27, 2019 by Unwrittenlaw

[jeaton6 637]

25 minutes ago, Unwrittenlaw said:

They're not comps.

Glad you’re figuring that out now

[Pwingles 448]

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

[Andy Dufresne 7,945]

2 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

I personally like him as a player. Coincidentally I think he should have been putting up Golden Tate numbers. But since he's stuck in that offense, I've been trying to offload him for any 2nd round dynasty pick but there have been no takers. If all I can get is a 3rd or lower, I'll keep him in hopes he finds his way off the Giants roster.

[Pwingles 448]

So for most people its probably a perception of the possible offense and not really him specifically? I am fine with the risk I think. If the QB situation suddenly changes his value will go up. If he ends up on another team next season, or a revamped giants squad his value shouldnt go down I wouldnt think.

 

[tangfoot 1,403]

58 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

So for most people its probably a perception of the possible offense and not really him specifically? I am fine with the risk I think. If the QB situation suddenly changes his value will go up. If he ends up on another team next season, or a revamped giants squad his value shouldnt go down I wouldnt think

He did well in OBJ's absence a couple years ago, but won't thrive in that system with two other guys basically playing the same role.  Could be a cheap stash, but I don't know that I want to hold that ticket.

[FF Ninja 2,823]

4 hours ago, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

Just grabbed him in a superflex startup in the 11th as our wr 5. Seemed a little late for me for him to be there. We passed on him 2 x because of players still on the board and we have Engram. But I couldnt do it again. Is he falling for a reason I am unaware of?

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

[wgoldsph 467]

6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

80/1100?  That's top 20 numbers.  You're drowning in koolaid my friend.

[FF Ninja 2,823]

1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

80/1100?  That's top 20 numbers.  You're drowning in koolaid my friend.

Probably not. On a ppg basis, that's most likely outside the top 20, depending on TDs.

Looking at points per game, Tyler Boyd finished WR20, but he only played 14 games. Project that out to 16 games and his numbers would've been 87/1175/8. So something like 80/1100 would probably yield high end WR3 numbers and maybe squeak into low-end WR2. But again, it depends on TDs. Eli doesn't throw a lot, so I would not feel comfortable projecting him above 6. 

Last season, Shepard had 107 targets for 180.5 points, or 1.7 points per target which yielded 11.3 ppg for WR42. With the absence of OBJ, if he gets 130 at that rate (less than 20% of OBJ's vacated targets), it would put him at 13.7 ppg which would've been WR27 last year (WR24 was 13.8 ppg). This math indicates the rough estimate of 80/1100 is reasonable, unless you expect him to get a smaller share of the 124 targets that went to OBJ last year or if you expect the Giants to pass less than they did last year.

[wgoldsph 467]

6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Probably not. On a ppg basis, that's most likely outside the top 20, depending on TDs.

Looking at points per game, Tyler Boyd finished WR20, but he only played 14 games. Project that out to 16 games and his numbers would've been 87/1175/8. So something like 80/1100 would probably yield high end WR3 numbers and maybe squeak into low-end WR2. But again, it depends on TDs. Eli doesn't throw a lot, so I would not feel comfortable projecting him above 6. 

Last season, Shepard had 107 targets for 180.5 points, or 1.7 points per target which yielded 11.3 ppg for WR42. With the absence of OBJ, if he gets 130 at that rate (less than 20% of OBJ's vacated targets), it would put him at 13.7 ppg which would've been WR27 last year (WR24 was 13.8 ppg). This math indicates the rough estimate of 80/1100 is reasonable, unless you expect him to get a smaller share of the 124 targets that went to OBJ last year or if you expect the Giants to pass less than they did last year.

Well, first of all I didn't know Shepard was targeted over 100 times last season, so I was off on my estimate.  You're probably closer to right than I gave you credit for.

I do however expect the Giants to do whatever they can to not pass this season.  All their moves seem to indicate they plan to live and die by Barkley.

[FF Ninja 2,823]

16 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Well, first of all I didn't know Shepard was targeted over 100 times last season, so I was off on my estimate.  You're probably closer to right than I gave you credit for.

I do however expect the Giants to do whatever they can to not pass this season.  All their moves seem to indicate they plan to live and die by Barkley.

You're not alone, which is why Shepard is such a nice value right now.

Every losing team talks about wanting to run the ball more, but when you're behind two scores, you pass the ball. And I would hate to see them do the Ricky Williams treatment to Barkley. 

[Pwingles 448]

59 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I like him based on (1) price, (2) opportunity, and (3) what we've seen on the field. If he plays 16 games, I expect something in the ballpark of 80/1100. Eli still sucks, but the OL has improved and this is Shurmur's second season. OBJ just vacated a ton of targets. Kind of the perfect storm for him entering the final year of his contract. If he clicks in this offense, he probably gets extended. If he's not happy, he gets a chance to move on.

If I needed WR help and had a mid-to-late 2nd, he's definitely a guy I'd target. I can't remember the last time I did a snake startup, so positionally where did he go in your draft? He should be going around WR40. If you got him as your WR5, that's some nice depth at excellent value.

11.06, wr 49

Edited March 28, 2019 by Pwingles

[Andy Dufresne 7,945]

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

[roarlions 98]

4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

I haven't offered him for draft picks in the one league where I own him, but I have received offers for him where I would receive a player in return. The latest offer I received was Sony Michel for Hunt and my 2020 1st round pick.

[tangfoot 1,403]

25 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

Sold him in a PPR/PPC league a few weeks ago for a 2020 1st.  Was happy to get it and some people in group chat thought I could have gotten more.

[Gally 2,363]

9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Sold him in a PPR/PPC league a few weeks ago for a 2020 1st.  Was happy to get it and some people in group chat thought I could have gotten more.

Everyone always says you could get more in the group chat after you pull the trigger on a deal but for some reason when you are shopping a guy they never offer more.  It's easy to say I would have paid more when the player is no longer on the block. 

[menobrown 2,717]

On 3/28/2019 at 8:35 AM, Pwingles said:

How are we feeling about Sterling Shepard?

 

About the same. In the games that Odell has missed he has only increased his production by 2 PPR fantasy points a game. Odell got a lot of targets but he opened up things for everyone else. Now you got Tate who in his Lions 4 full seasons averaged 8.25 targets a game, just 2.25 less then Odell per game, and he may not sustain that but he's a higher volume target guy who unlike Odell does not open up the field. So all in all about the same.

[menobrown 2,717]

43 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

 

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

[Andy Dufresne 7,945]

14 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

Seems like this is the way of it - if you want to sell him you need to take less but if you're actively looking to buy him you have to overpay. 

[bostonfred 25,661]

2 hours ago, menobrown said:

I offered 1.9 for him before he signed with the Browns but also when we had no idea who he would be playing for and when he'd be allowed to play. I got shot down and was told I needed to include my 2020#1 AND a player. I don't have that 1.9 pick anymore, if I did I would not offer it because I think the owner is not reasonable to work with on a trade for Hunt but a pick in the second round is a steal. I'd for sure still give a late first for him.

There's a really wide spread on hunt's value and a really wide spread on the value of picks in this year's draft.  If someone loves this year's draft and everyone in their league hates hunt it wouldn't shock me to see them trade hunt for a second. In other leagues a late first in a supposedly weak class isn't much of an offer.  

One thing worth pointing out is that neither is a very good asset for a win now team.  Hunt is suspended for 2/3 of the fantasy regular season and it's not like you could start him week 9 with any confidence.  He's a much better fit for a rebuild. But so is 1.9. 

It's hard to get a deal done when you're trading similar assets.  Most people won't make a trade they're ambivalent about, so you need one team that likes the late picks in this year's first more than the norm and another that likes hunt more than the norm.  But the guy who owns hunt probably drafted him for a reason, felt like a genius when he was good, and feels like this is a temporary setback. 

Imo if you want to do a deal for him it's best to make an offer that includes a win now asset like Edelman if they're a potential contender, or a young question mark like Corey Davis.  

Edited March 29, 2019 by bostonfred

[Andrew74 909]

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

[tangfoot 1,403]

1 hour ago, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

By ADP, it's #16 overall for #21, 39 and 83.

[Ratbone 152]

9 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

By ADP, it's #16 overall for #21, 39 and 83.

That’s good info. But either cooper or Davis at 21 seems really high.  

[wgoldsph 467]

5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Kareem Hunt is nigh on untradeable right now (unless you're practically giving him away).

Offered him in one way or the other to guys though the 2.5 pick. Zero interest.

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

[Andy Dufresne 7,945]

9 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

[kutta 4,449]

53 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

I agree with Andy. Seems too cheap for Hunt. Better to hold him and hope he lands safely somewhere.

[wgoldsph 467]

48 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

 

7 minutes ago, kutta said:

I agree with Andy. Seems too cheap for Hunt. Better to hold him and hope he lands safely somewhere.

Didn't get any replies in AC...

So as the guy who got Hunt in this trade, I made the right move? Cool.

[kutta 4,449]

4 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

 

Didn't get any replies in AC...

So as the guy who got Hunt in this trade, I made the right move? Cool.

Looks that way.

[Hankmoody 3,181]

1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well, it should go in the AC form but...

Team Hunt would, essentially, be giving him up to move up three spots at the top of round one but down three at the bottom. Why do that?

This whole thread should be in there.

[Jello_Biafra 417]

2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Been trying to get an opinion on this hunt trade everywhere. I'm in full rebuild, Team Name

Decatur Staleys gave up Hunt, Kareem CLE RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.04 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 3.12 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.03

Team Name gave up Kelly, John LAR RB and Year 2019 Draft Pick 1.01 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.03 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 2.15 and Year 2019 Draft Pick 4.01

Good trade for the guy getting 1.01 if Barkley was a rookie. There isn't one player right now that is worthy of the 1.01. After the draft that will change, but this WR class seems a tad overrated. 

[Hankmoody 3,181]

Well I will tell you what I can't move Gurley to save my life.  I'm willing to take a moderate hit on a couple of teams to stock up on other goodies but I am getting RNC all over the place.

[DexterDew 64]

I can't seem to move Ingram for anything of worth (late 2nd this year). Maybe i should be buying in other leagues. He's a starting RB on a run first offense. What am i missing?

[skinfanjon 237]

3 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Well I will tell you what I can't move Gurley to save my life.  I'm willing to take a moderate hit on a couple of teams to stock up on other goodies but I am getting RNC all over the place.

I dealt him for Kittle and Duke Johnson in FFPC right after the arthritis report came out.  I took some flack for it, but the market is cold. 

[King of the Jungle 952]

On 3/29/2019 at 2:13 PM, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

I would take that in a heartbeat. I own him and he has nowhere that value in my league. I dare say that is a landslide trade in your favor.

[skinfanjon 237]

1 minute ago, King of the Jungle said:

I would take that in a heartbeat. I own him and he has nowhere that value in my league. I dare say that is a landslide trade in your favor.

He'd be the one getting DJ.

I'd stick based value.  If I had wr depth and thought DJ put me over the top, might go for it.

[King of the Jungle 952]

11 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

He'd be the one getting DJ.

I'd stick based value.  If I had wr depth and thought DJ put me over the top, might go for it.

Oops...I would still love the othersde.

[skinfanjon 237]

6 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Oops...I would still love the othersde.

Yeah even if I did think DJ put me over the top, I'd try a whole bunch of other options first.  And I say that as a guy who think Davis is one of the most overrated players in dynasty.

[Snorkelson 2,916]

I’m looking at the packers depth chart and outside Adams I feel anyone could take the wr2-3 spots. Allison was decent, but not so great that he couldn’t be unseated. MVS showed nice last year, Moore not as much but I wouldn’t count him out. Then you have Jake kumerow, who Rodgers seemed to click with in the preseason, and also had some catches at the end of the year on limited snaps. All of these guys are buy low lotto tickets, except Allison, who may just be a buy low. That offense can produce points. 

[barackdhouse 979]

1 hour ago, DexterDew said:

I can't seem to move Ingram for anything of worth (late 2nd this year). Maybe i should be buying in other leagues. He's a starting RB on a run first offense. What am i missing?

Yeah I would pay a late 2nd for sure. Maybe I need to see if anyone is selling.

[jeaton6 637]

1 hour ago, skinfanjon said:

I dealt him for Kittle and Duke Johnson in FFPC right after the arthritis report came out.  I took some flack for it, but the market is cold. 

Has anything actually been confirmed on the arthritis though?

[King of the Jungle 952]

2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Yeah even if I did think DJ put me over the top, I'd try a whole bunch of other options first.  And I say that as a guy who think Davis is one of the most overrated players in dynasty.

Agree on Davis. I would probably take Cooper straight up for DJ at this point.

[menobrown 2,717]

2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

 MVS showed nice last year,

I'd recommend reading the entire long article making the rounds today about Rodgers and McCarty's bad relationship. Found a few fantasy nuggets of info in that article and one of them was that MVS reportedly told at least one source that Rodgers hates him and would not throw the ball to him because MVS ran the routes that McCarthy wanted and did not deviate his routes like Rodgers wanted. Anyway I'd read the article if when you have time, Green Bay is going to be interesting next year.

[Dr. Octopus 10,454]

1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I'd recommend reading the entire long article making the rounds today about Rodgers and McCarty's bad relationship. Found a few fantasy nuggets of info in that article and one of them was that MVS reportedly told at least one source that Rodgers hates him and would not throw the ball to him because MVS ran the routes that McCarthy wanted and did not deviate his routes like Rodgers wanted. Anyway I'd read the article if when you have time, Green Bay is going to be interesting next year.

Well McCarthy is gone so that may get worked out anyway - but interesting.

[Birdie048 256]

17 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I would pay a late 2nd for sure. Maybe I need to see if anyone is selling.

I have been reject for deals for Ingram offering 1.10 & Hurst and 1.07 even.  

He also has Hunt (I have Chubb) and he is firm on holding both.  I can appreciate that, but there is very little activity right now before NFL Draft 

[Andrew74 909]

20 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Oops...I would still love the othersde.

Yeah I would be getting DJ.  I decided to pass and explore other opportunities. 

[Milkman 1,626]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:13 PM, Andrew74 said:

Where is David Johnson value now?  I got an offer to trade for him.  He’s a good RB, great receiver and a workhorse.  New coaching should be a positive.  But AZ sucks. Feels like buying (an older) Todd Gurley two years ago.  

In 0.5PPR I was offered DJ for Cooper + Corey Davis + R Penny. 

Kyler Murray is going to open everything up for DJ. DJ is a League winner this year barring injury. 

[bostonfred 25,661]

16 hours ago, Milkman said:

Kyler Murray is going to open everything up for DJ. DJ is a League winner this year barring injury. 

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season

Also worth pointing out that the cardinals entire starting offensive line finished the season on ir last year.  

[Milkman 1,626]

2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2018/12/5/18128028/arizona-cardinals-original-starting-offensive-line-is-gone-for-the-season

Also worth pointing out that the cardinals entire starting offensive line finished the season on ir last year.  

A little worried about Kyler Murray stealing GL carries.....so maybe league winner ceiling is a stretch. Top 5 RB is in play though....