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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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6 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Maybe not getting better, but playing better. I think there was a bit of a tug of war going on with Patricia and Cooter last season. There was also a lot of turnover with Tate and Ebron leaving, Golladay stepping up, and M.Jones getting injured. Stafford had a lot not go his way last year, but I don't think he's a declining player, not yet anyway. 

Stafford had 700 more yards and 8 more TD's in 2017, and I think its reasonable to expect him to be closer to that than his 2018 numbers, assuming he isn't left with just Golladay again this year. With a healthy Jones, a healthy Johnson, a newly acquired Amendola and a likely rookie in the the 1st 3 rounds, I expect bigger numbers, and Golladay should be along for the ride, with other players taking coverage, which stopped happening down the stretch.

He needs some pass protection. All the weapons won’t buy him more time.

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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

He needs some pass protection. All the weapons won’t buy him more time.

Well, Decker should be better, another year removed from injury, and Ragnow should take a major step forward in year 2.

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11 hours ago, travdogg said:

Maybe not getting better, but playing better. I think there was a bit of a tug of war going on with Patricia and Cooter last season. There was also a lot of turnover with Tate and Ebron leaving, Golladay stepping up, and M.Jones getting injured. Stafford had a lot not go his way last year, but I don't think he's a declining player, not yet anyway. 

Stafford had 700 more yards and 8 more TD's in 2017, and I think its reasonable to expect him to be closer to that than his 2018 numbers, assuming he isn't left with just Golladay again this year. With a healthy Jones, a healthy Johnson, a newly acquired Amendola and a likely rookie in the the 1st 3 rounds, I expect bigger numbers, and Golladay should be along for the ride, with other players taking coverage, which stopped happening down the stretch.

It wouldn't hurt if they gave him an NFL TE, too. It's been a while since he's had one. Wait, has he ever had one?

ETA: I had to look it up. The best season since Stafford took over was by Pettigrew (83/777/5 in 2011 on 125 targets). Would be interesting to see Hockenson there. 

Edited by FF Ninja

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It wouldn't hurt if they gave him an NFL TE, too. It's been a while since he's had one. Wait, has he ever had one?

ETA: I had to look it up. The best season since Stafford took over was by Pettigrew (83/777/5 in 2011 on 125 targets). Would be interesting to see Hockenson there. 

I’d be happy with hock fant or even erv Smith I’m the 1st if we can trade back (maybe more than once) and get some extra mid rd picks. If we take Hockenson at 8 I’ll feel we left some defensive talent there we need more. Lions fans, at least I think, want to trade back every year because it always seems we don’t have depth but never do. I think this is the year.

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

It wouldn't hurt if they gave him an NFL TE, too. It's been a while since he's had one. Wait, has he ever had one?

ETA: I had to look it up. The best season since Stafford took over was by Pettigrew (83/777/5 in 2011 on 125 targets). Would be interesting to see Hockenson there. 

Giant middle finger to Eric Ebron, who certainly looked like an NFL TE with a better QB last year. 

I think Detroit would be making a huge mistake if they took Hockenson at 8. They just spent a decent chunk of change on Jesse James, I think TE depth is still a need, but more of a day 3 need. Somebody like Dax Raymond or Drew Sample.

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2 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Giant middle finger to Eric Ebron, who certainly looked like an NFL TE with a better QB last year. 

I think Detroit would be making a huge mistake if they took Hockenson at 8. They just spent a decent chunk of change on Jesse James, I think TE depth is still a need, but more of a day 3 need. Somebody like Dax Raymond or Drew Sample.

Meh, we'll see if Ebron keeps it up. Remember, he was playing limited snaps when Doyle was healthy. Feels like 2018 will be an outlier for his career. Regardless of what he did in Indy, he didn't play like that in Detroit and I really don't think you can blame QB play on that. Other players thrived during that same time span. 

Also, Ebron only caught 60% of his targets, compared to Doyle's 77% over his career in Indy. Granted they play different roles, but 60% is relatively low for a TE.

I didn't realize Detroit signed Jesse James, but it is worth noting his 2019 cap hit is merely $2,284,000. Total contract value is $22,600,000 over 5 years. Averages out to $5.65M, so like you said a decent chunk, but it's definitely not a big investment. 

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8 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Giant middle finger to Eric Ebron, who certainly looked like an NFL TE with a better QB last year. 

I think Detroit would be making a huge mistake if they took Hockenson at 8. They just spent a decent chunk of change on Jesse James, I think TE depth is still a need, but more of a day 3 need. Somebody like Dax Raymond or Drew Sample.

I wouldn’t mind Hockenson at all but agree not at 8. Depending on what happens with QBs there should be a good dline prospect sitting there. If not trade back and try to add selections.

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12 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Giant middle finger to Eric Ebron, who certainly looked like an NFL TE with a better QB last year. 

 

If you broke Ebron's seasons into halves the most efficient and arguably best stretch of his career was his last 8 games with the Lions. Did not score TD's like last year but the drops were nil and the efficiency was great and was the entire previous season as well. And I've said this a few times regarding him but if you really break down his career other then first half of the the 2017 season he'd been on a steady upward climb with the Lions.

His drops and big mouth made him easy to pile on but really Lions fans should be more upset at inept coaching staff or Stafford for not fully utilizing what in hindsight was a massive red zone weapon and Lions brass for letting him walk after he seemed to turn the corner in 2017. 

 

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I didn't realize Detroit signed Jesse James, but it is worth noting his 2019 cap hit is merely $2,284,000. Total contract value is $22,600,000 over 5 years. Averages out to $5.65M, so like you said a decent chunk, but it's definitely not a big investment. 

It's also worth noting that he's not very good - just a catch and fall down guy.

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4 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

I'm struggling with the PPR value comparison between M Thomas and D Adams - I see them as basically identical. Can anyone offer any clarity?

Thomas had an amazing catch rate last year. Some of that is Brees being so good. But it would be very tough to repeat. His targets would need to go up to make up for a drop in percentage of catches.  Do you think Thomas gets more than 150 targets? Also, Adams was much more solid on a week to week basis. His consistency was amazing. At least 16 every week. I have them close but Adams higher by about 30 points next season because of my worries about Brees age and the great catch rate. 

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19 hours ago, kutta said:

Do you think it's a coincidence that Goff's bad stretch started pretty much when Kupp tore his ACL? Maybe it's not so unsustainable with Kupp in the lineup.

It's certainly possible, but we're talking about the difference between one of the most efficient QBs in NFL history over the first 10 games and a poor man's Christian Ponder in the last 8 (counting playoffs).  That is one heck of a mighty swing to credit to Kupp.

I don't see anything special when I watch Goff play.  Not particularly accurate.  Not particularly good at reading the field.  I think the much more likely truth behind Goff is that he's a system QB in a system that NFL teams are starting to figure out.  I don't expect him to be as bad as he was his last 8 games (counting playoffs) of course, because that's backup QB level play.  But I also don't think we'll ever see him anywhere near the kind of pace he was on through the first 10 games.

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On 4/9/2019 at 12:35 PM, TartanLion said:

I actually love the 1.05 spot this year if you were able to trade down. I have the 1.02 and am looking to do so but will wait till after the draft just to be sure. I’m sorely tempted to take AJ Brown at the 1.02 and I figure there’s a very very high Chance he would be there at 1.05 ...

Metcalf  - will most likely go 

Harry - likewise 

Butler - getting massive props from a lot of quarters, figures someone inside the top 4 will want that potential upside 

RB with the best landing spot - would be difficult to imagine no RBs going in the top 4 

 

= AJ Brown at 1.05 

I have a 1.05 and would welcome this scenario. I'm projecting my choices to be between Butler/Montgomery. 

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50 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

What rb do you guys think Corey Davis should fetch straight up in a dynasty trade?

Straight up?  Here's a list of a few that I view close.

Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette (after his arrest today), Rashaad Penny, Phillip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake and maybe to the right owner Sony Michel or Kerryon Johnson. 

Even some of those might be slight downgrades in value but Corey has done me dirty 2 years in a row now so I'm sour.  Get him off my teams.  

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49 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Aaron Jones.

I can say I have Aaron Jones and the Titans are my team, and I would not trade Jones for Davis.

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Straight up?  Here's a list of a few that I view close.

Aaron Jones, Leonard Fournette (after his arrest today), Rashaad Penny, Phillip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake and maybe to the right owner Sony Michel or Kerryon Johnson. 

Even some of those might be slight downgrades in value but Corey has done me dirty 2 years in a row now so I'm sour.  Get him off my teams.  

I think this is the right range.  To get Dalvin Cook you would have to add something.  

I would want a lot more than just Williams, Penny or Drake.

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Question for the thread - how do you adjust your player values in leagues with additional FLEX spots?  Some leagues are start 8 (QRRWWWTF) and others are start 11 (QRRWWWTSFFF) - S is SuperFlex - and I think it does impact player values more than most give it credit for.

In the deeper 12-team start 11 players leagues I think player value is quite a bit different than in start 8 leagues.  

Do you bump up the players who are fringe-starter types in start-11 leagues compared to those players value in a start-8 league?  How much?

QBs are clearly wayyy more valuable in the SuperFlex league - I'm only asking about RB/WR/TE.

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Even some of those might be slight downgrades in value but Corey has done me dirty 2 years in a row now so I'm sour.  Get him off my teams.  

This is exactly why I ask. I'm tired of putting this guy out there so mariota can die midgame.

Sent out offers to the Mack and Fournette owners.  Hopefully will hear something back. Thanks everyone.

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1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

This is exactly why I ask. I'm tired of putting this guy out there so mariota can die midgame.

Sent out offers to the Mack and Fournette owners.  Hopefully will hear something back. Thanks everyone.

Would you take a late 1st?  I'm looking to buy for the upside and Sammy Watkins myself....

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11 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Question for the thread - how do you adjust your player values in leagues with additional FLEX spots?  Some leagues are start 8 (QRRWWWTF) and others are start 11 (QRRWWWTSFFF) - S is SuperFlex - and I think it does impact player values more than most give it credit for.

In the deeper 12-team start 11 players leagues I think player value is quite a bit different than in start 8 leagues.  

Do you bump up the players who are fringe-starter types in start-8 leagues compared to a start-11 league?  How much?

QBs are clearly wayyy more valuable in the SuperFlex league - I'm only asking about RB/WR/TE.

I don't play in these types of leagues so I'm no expert, but I would think it would devalue the fringe players (as there's always going to be someone on the waiver who can potentially catch 40 yards and luck their way into the endzone), and extremely increase the value of players the top tier players who you can count on week in week out.

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2 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I don't play in these types of leagues so I'm no expert, but I would think it would devalue the fringe players (as there's always going to be someone on the waiver who can potentially catch 40 yards and luck their way into the endzone), and extremely increase the value of players the top tier players who you can count on week in week out.

These leagues have 30+ man rosters so the waiver wire is extremely barren. 

 

I screwed up the phrasing and reversed the leagues, that was probably confusing - fixed.

Edited by kittenmittens

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Would you take a late 1st?  I'm looking to buy for the upside and Sammy Watkins myself....

With my team makeup I'm looking at a running back, but all things being neutral I would think long and hard about a late first and Watkins.

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

These leagues have 30+ man rosters so the waiver wire is extremely barren.

I think my point still stands.  Everyone is starting a Brandon lafell or laquon tredwell, during the bye weeks, it doesn't matter at the end of the year there's 10 points between them overall.

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1 minute ago, kittenmittens said:

Thanks, I was thinking just the late 1st.  Sammy Watkins is an example of a player I "bought low" on when his situation was horrible the way Davis' is - I'm concerned about getting a similar outcome with Davis but I think it's worth the risk.

Difference with Watkins is buffalo is a team that's always in rebuild.  The titans aren't going to move their no1 pick from two seasons ago.  Which is a good or bad thing depending on how you feel about tenn.

That being said just a late 1st is probably too light for me.  I'm not enamored with any of the rookies outside of Izabella and he'll be long gone by then.

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

I think my point still stands.  Everyone is starting a Brandon lafell or laquon tredwell, during the bye weeks, it doesn't matter at the end of the year there's 10 points between them overall.

I don't think it stands.  You're saying depth players have the same value whether they are starters or bench players?  

Some teams are starting crap in their 10th and 11th starter spots, others aren't. 

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2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

This is exactly why I ask. I'm tired of putting this guy out there so mariota can die midgame.

Sent out offers to the Mack and Fournette owners.  Hopefully will hear something back. Thanks everyone.

Not sure if you saw in the trade thread, but a couple days ago I traded Corey and 2.12 for Penny and 1.11.  Some felt I even lost the trade but I'm super happy with it.  

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2 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

I don't think it stands.  You're saying depth players have the same value whether they are starters or bench players?  

Some teams are starting crap in their 10th and 11th starter spots, others aren't. 

And I'm assuming the people who are starting crap in the 11th spot are starting a stronger 2nd rb or wr, which I think is more valuable than the less than one point difference per game you'd find between the 100th and 160th wr.

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2 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

And I'm assuming the people who are starting crap in the 11th spot are starting a stronger 2nd rb or wr, which I think is more valuable than the less than one point difference per game you'd find between the 100th and 160th wr.

That isn't the question...

The question is whether the WR50 is more valuable in a league where that player starts every week vs in a league where that player is usually on the bench. 

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13 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Question for the thread - how do you adjust your player values in leagues with additional FLEX spots?  Some leagues are start 8 (QRRWWWTF) and others are start 11 (QRRWWWTSFFF) - S is SuperFlex - and I think it does impact player values more than most give it credit for.

In the deeper 12-team start 11 players leagues I think player value is quite a bit different than in start 8 leagues.  

Do you bump up the players who are fringe-starter types in start-11 leagues compared to those players value in a start-8 league?  How much?

QBs are clearly wayyy more valuable in the SuperFlex league - I'm only asking about RB/WR/TE.

It's a huge difference in strategy for me between start 8 leagues and start 11 leagues, especially with the added info that we're talking about 30+ man rosters.

With the small starting lineups, you basically have to go studs and duds. Depth does you very little good unless you have an injury and in that case, you're already behind the curve. With the larger lineups and rosters, I basically give up on the name brand studs and focus on value plays, particularly the guys with upside... even better if they have some youth. So guys like Moncrief, Keelan Cole, Albert Wilson. Just load up on those types. Odds aren't good for any one of them to hit big, but they should be serviceable 10th or 11th starters and if one or two hit big then you end up a lot better off than the teams that blindly stuck with studs and duds despite the different settings.

As for bumping players up, I've found that the values stay relatively flat (speaking about auction values) but it's more about redirecting who you target. So if you ignore the brand names like I mentioned you might end up with Robert Woods (WR17 - 16.6 ppg) as your WR1 while other teams have guys like Julio (WR4 - 20.6 ppg), but as long as you've got a guy like Marvin Jones (WR29 - 12.9 ppg) as your 11th starter when the studs and duds teams are starting someone like Chris Hogan (WR96 - 7.1 ppg), you've more than  made up that 4 ppg difference at the top of your lineup. And if Marvin were to regain his 2017 form (14.1 ppg), then you're crushing it.

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Just now, hispeedthinmint said:

What is the value of Carr & Matt Ryan in start 1 QB? I tried to get Ryan for E. Sanders & was turned down. Would trading Sanders for Carr be fair for both?

It depends how many teams are in the league.  QBs are essentially next to worthless in 12-team (or lower) leagues.

That said, I don't think anyone is paying more than a handful of used tissues for E. Sanders.

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2 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What is the value of Carr & Matt Ryan in start 1 QB? I tried to get Ryan for E. Sanders & was turned down. Would trading Sanders for Carr be fair for both? Also thought about trying to add my 3.12 rookie pick to Sanders for Ryan

I think the issue is that Sanders is 32 and coming off a devastating torn Achilles injury. I don't think many would even want to roster him let alone give up any kind of value whatsoever for him.

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7 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think the issue is that Sanders is 32 and coming off a devastating torn Achilles injury. I don't think many would even want to roster him let alone give up any kind of value whatsoever for him.

In short roster FFPC league I don't think anyone cut Sanders, for sure not in my leagues.  You certainly touched on the negatives but reportedly he is progressing well and it was encouraging that Denver did not cut him and save a good chunk of salary.

In an FFPC style league I would for sure take Sanders over Carr(who was cut in most leagues of mine) and I would also take Sanders and 3.12 over Ryan.

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23 minutes ago, menobrown said:

In short roster FFPC league I don't think anyone cut Sanders, for sure not in my leagues.  You certainly touched on the negatives but reportedly he is progressing well and it was encouraging that Denver did not cut him and save a good chunk of salary.

In an FFPC style league I would for sure take Sanders over Carr(who was cut in most leagues of mine) and I would also take Sanders and 3.12 over Ryan.

I’d agree on Carr since he’s pretty worthless but would keep Ryan over Sanders and the pick. Denver was on the hook for like $6.5MM even if they cut him, but you are right they would have saved money. I’m just not going to trust a guy that’s 32 coming back from an achilles year. Surely not impossible but I just don’t think it’s worth the risk because how great will he be even if healthy?

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’d agree on Carr since he’s pretty worthless but would keep Ryan over Sanders and the pick. Denver was on the hook for like $6.5MM even if they cut him, but you are right they would have saved money. I’m just not going to trust a guy that’s 32 coming back from an achilles year. Surely not impossible but I just don’t think it’s worth the risk because how great will he be even if healthy?

If they'd cut him they'd have still owed him $1.5 and he would have counted $4.2M in dead money. Instead they decided to pay him his over $10M and take on a cap hit of close to $13M. In net cutting him vs retaining him was exactly $8.75M. In essence they decided to give him $8.75M for one year instead of cutting him.  Maybe they don't know a thing about his progress from his achilles but that seems doubtful to me  so I found it highly encouraging they retained him. As for how good he'll be if healthy I"d think pretty good, he was excellent last season and I think Flacco is an upgrade on Keenum.

In FFPC I recently gave 3.12 for Trubisky and I put him at least on par with Ryan. Trubisky was cut in other leagues of mine, as was Goff and a bunch of older QB's. Just to easy to find and Ryan is to up and down for me. I know he had a good year last year but Ryan is to up and down for me and I think I can get a comparable QB and basically free Sanders who I think IF healthy has 2 solid WR2 type seasons left in his body.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

In short roster FFPC league I don't think anyone cut Sanders, for sure not in my leagues.  You certainly touched on the negatives but reportedly he is progressing well and it was encouraging that Denver did not cut him and save a good chunk of salary.

In an FFPC style league I would for sure take Sanders over Carr(who was cut in most leagues of mine) and I would also take Sanders and 3.12 over Ryan.

About a month before cut downs, Sanders was traded for the 7.01 in one of my FFPC leagues.  He has very minimal value.  Daeshawn Hamilton however was cut in multiple FFPC leagues of mine.  Seems backwards to me.  

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12 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

About a month before cut downs, Sanders was traded for the 7.01 in one of my FFPC leagues.  He has very minimal value.  Daeshawn Hamilton however was cut in multiple FFPC leagues of mine.  Seems backwards to me.  

 I agree his value is low in FFPC and in general. I would also strongly argue that Carr is worth less and Ryan in same ballpark.

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On 4/10/2019 at 3:03 PM, FF Ninja said:

 I would take JJAW over all but maybe 2-3 of last year's WRs.

who are those 2-3?

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11 hours ago, menobrown said:

 I agree his value is low in FFPC and in general. I would also strongly argue that Carr is worth less and Ryan in same ballpark.

Carr seems like a great buy low right now.  If I was holding 2 QB's in FFPC and platooning them until 1 separates themselves, I would love to have Carr as one of those hopefuls.  Hell I might even be comfortable with him as my only QB and risk it if my team isn't in great shape.  If I'm being super optimistic about Carr, I can see a case being made for him being a top10 dynasty QB.  

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15 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Carr seems like a great buy low right now.  If I was holding 2 QB's in FFPC and platooning them until 1 separates themselves, I would love to have Carr as one of those hopefuls.  Hell I might even be comfortable with him as my only QB and risk it if my team isn't in great shape.  If I'm being super optimistic about Carr, I can see a case being made for him being a top10 dynasty QB.  

Fumbled into the end zone out of bounds week 15 two years ago to cost me a championship. Never again will I own Carr!

The lost fumble took me from a win to a tie in the semi final, and I lost head to head during the season. Would have smashed both teams in the super bowl.

Edited by Snorkelson
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1 hour ago, Catbird said:

I don't think he knew?

My blood boils every time I see his name...never again I tell you!!!!

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On 4/13/2019 at 8:16 AM, Dr. Dan said:

who are those 2-3?

Moore and Pettis are the only ones I really like from last year. Ridley and Kirk both showed enough to be the "bird in the hand" for this kind of hypothetical, but JJAW appears to have more upside than they do. To me he seems a little similar to Sutton, but I like him better.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Moore and Pettis are the only ones I really like from last year. Ridley and Kirk both showed enough to be the "bird in the hand" for this kind of hypothetical, but JJAW appears to have more upside than they do. To me he seems a little similar to Sutton, but I like him better.

Thanks. I may have an opportunity to swap Anthony Miller for 1.10, which would put me in a situation to draft a wr with more upside 

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29 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Just woke up with an offer of the 1.02 for Kerryon. I like KJ but ill take the pick in this instance. 

Interested to hear what others have to say. Personally, I would rather have a 21 year old KJ. 

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If I need RBs, I keep KJ as I like him better than any in this draft.  If it was next year, I would make that in a second because I like the 2020 RBs more than KJ.

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14 minutes ago, Mingooch said:

If I need RBs, I keep KJ as I like him better than any in this draft.  If it was next year, I would make that in a second because I like the 2020 RBs more than KJ.

If the league is active with trading though, you probably get what you want by taking the 1.2 offer now and turning it into a 2020 1st at some conveient time near your rook draft...

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Yeah im relatively strong at rb, KJ was half my depth though lol.

Have CMC, David Johnson, Aaron Jones. Must start 1, can start 3.

Now have the 1.02, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 2.02

Edited by Run It Up

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