Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:
RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and enough speed. Can be Zeke-lite for the Raiders, but not a can't-miss talent. Went from being underrated to (arguably) being overdrafted, with pedestrian long run numbers in college and no experience as THE guy. Still, I like his chances to have a solid rookie year and hold good dynasty value throughout the next 12 months. If you don't like what you see, cash out later down the line.
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RB Miles Sanders, Eagles - Another guy who really doesn't have any major weak points. His size and speed are both merely just good and not great, but he has a little of everything. Power, agility, speed, and receiving potential. You worry a little bit about Jordan Howard's presence, but in all likelihood this is the most talented back on the roster.
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RB David Montgomery, Bears - He's exactly my type of runner with his compact frame, great balance, and loose hips, but there's one glaring flaw: he's slow and has very marginal burst for the NFL level. Even in college he had very few long runs and it won't get any easier on Sundays. He can be an accumulator and has a chance at being FF ROTY, but there are warts keeping him from being a top tier prospect. I think he's being overdrafted in rookie drafts, but it can potentially work out. A day one starting role is right there for the taking.
RB Damien Harris, Patriots - With Jacobs flipping the script and getting all the attention out of Bama now, Harris is flying under the radar and, from what I've seen so far, presents good value in rookie drafts. He has a pro-ready combination of power and straight-line burst. His elusiveness and big play skills are just average, but he's one of the highest floor RBs in this draft. One of the scouting reports I read compared him to Cedric Benson and I like that parallel. He doesn't have the electric qualities to ever be an elite pro back, but would be serviceable as a starter right away. I think he gains value in deep mandatory 2RB leagues and is a lot less desirable in flex-y mandatory 1RB leagues since he's more of a high floor/low ceiling type with questionable PPR upside.
RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A tricky guy to figure out because his stats are incredible. He breaks big plays at an amazing clip and has a pretty good combination of size and speed. Yet when I pull up the video I'm not completely sold on what I see. He's a bit straight-liney with a good, but not great frame. Ultimately, I'm just middle-of-the-road on him. I don't hate his game, but he's not a player that I'd draft higher than generic traits would dictate. Given the seemingly poor short-term opportunity, he often falls to a reasonable range in rookie drafts. Gurley's health may dictate his short-term career outlook.
RB Devin Singletary, Bills - He's a logical successor to LeSean McCoy because he has a similar game and running style. Both are jukers who thrive with elusivess and sudden footwork. He's also reminiscent of Frank Gore in some ways, having a similar body type and combine profile. Singletary is hard to corral and can create yards in 1v1 situations. However, he lacks McCoy's speed and will struggle to rip off big plays at the next level. I thought his film was pretty decent, but he has quite a few physical limitations, so you're aiming to a a small target here. His ADP is reasonable and I don't hate his game, but I think he's shaded more towards guys like Ronnie Hillman than McCoy/Gore in terms of outlook.
RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - Big and more mobile than his metrics would indicate, but like a lot of the backs in this draft, lacks vertical explosiveness to break long runs. Probably a backup/RBBC caliber talent, but not hopeless and the opportunity may be better than expected since Dalvin Cook isn't the most rugged or durable back.
After that, there's a big dropoff. I don't rate any of the 4th round rookie RBs as being much better than waiver/UDFA fodder. The 5th round has some mildly interesting guys: Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams, Ty Johnson, Rodney Anderson, and Travis Homer. However, the short-term opportunity looks dire and are any of these guys really good enough to justify stashing on your bench for a few years? Perhaps only in deep leagues. My expectations are low. Typically I find 1-2 day three backs that I like a lot and target in all my drafts, but I don't think that player is out there this year.
WR AJ Brown, Titans - When I reviewed this class a year ago, he was the only prospect I would've felt good about in the top 3 of a devy draft. Looking at him a year later, I'm still bullish. Big and mobile. Ideal body type for a possession/RAC-based #1 WR. I see a late first round talent, so it's strange to me that he fell so far. I think the league whiffed a little bit here and that he'll be a solid pro. Reminiscent of people like Demaryius Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of being a big body who can run fluid routes and evade with the ball in his hands.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Compact and strong. Almost too big. He carries a lot of weight for his height, but it doesn't seem to hamper his mobility. His 40 time is good for his play style and on the field he is a natural athlete and loose runner. He's not an elite prospect, but overall I have a high degree of confidence in his outlook. He is a plus version of Quincy Enunwa at worst and an Anquan Boldin at best. Has a chance to be a PPR machine on this SF team. You don't want him gaining any additional weight, as he's already almost RB-size.
WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - Tall and rangy, but despite the occasional highlight reel play, his movement and mobility are pretty ordinary. He's more of an old school big body chain mover like Keyshawn Johnson than an athletic dynamo. A rich man's Aaron Dobson, who didn't pan out for the Pats a few years ago. Separation could be an issue. I'm betting on the draft slot and situation as much as the film, because it's merely pretty good and not amazing.
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WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - Explosive, yet absolutely rail thin. Can his 166 pound frame survive in the NFL? You can point towards DeSean Jackson for an optimistic comparison, but others like Paul Richardson haven't been so fortunate with durability. Ultimately, the talent and draft slot are impressive, but the atypical frame adds a considerable layer of risk and is enough to knock him out of my top WR tier even though he was the first WR chosen.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - I've seen Josh Gordon comparisons and I get it because both have rare size and vertical explosiveness. If nothing else, Metcalf is going to be a seam buster that teams need to respect because his ability to get deep and win with speed is very real. The question is whether or not he has anything else to his game. Despite being a SPARQ dream, he isn't necessarily a great athlete in terms of fluidity and suddenness. Can he do more than run a fly route? The ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft, but you can see why teams let him drop despite his otherworldly physical profile.
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WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - His track background is evident in his clips. He covers the first 10-15 yards as quickly as anyone you'll see. Very, very fast. His route running needs refinement, but the raw parts are there to be strong in this department. He's a bit tightly wound and has some hip stiffness in a phone booth when running after the catch, but once he gets into his stride he can gash teams. Very short with short arms and a small catch radius. More drops than ideal. Ultimately, he has some boom-or-bust qualities. There's an interesting ceiling here because his speed/strength combination is dynamic, but he's very small and will be a nonentity in contested situations. His possession game needs a lot of work. In terms of body type and stature, he resembles Wes Welker, but in terms of his impact on the game he's more like Phillip Dorsett. I see a wide range of potential career outcomes, with everything from stardom to total failure seeming conceivable.
WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Like Metcalf, a guy who doesn't really play up to his measurables and fell in the draft despite insane athletic metrics. No doubt he's fast, but that's not always enough. He doesn't seem to have great overall movement or suddenness and is more straight-line. His body type looks a little different, but there are similarities with another former Buckeye speedster: Ted Ginn. I'm intrigued because the Colts have an elite QB in the prime of his career and if Campbell pans out then he could be gold, but I like him less than his draft slot and measurables would dictate. He's been going quite high in my drafts and I'm simply not willing to take him at his ADP.
WR JJ Arcega- Whiteside, Eagles - Big frame and elite possession skills, with long arms and strong hands to win consistently in contested situations. However, his athleticism and movement are borderline, which could make life difficult against the superior defenders at the next level. He does not have clean lower body movement and fluidity to separate in routes and evade after the catch, and is more reliant on guile. The landing spot is great and it boosts his outlook, but ultimately I'm not high enough on the talent to take him at his ADP, which looks to be quite high among this rookie class.
WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - Plays way faster than his 4.5 40 time. Among the "small/fast" WRs picked on day two, he probably has the most impressive film. However, he's undersized at ~185 pounds and has suspect hands/toughness. With AB gone, the Steelers needed somebody to keep the heat off JuJu and Johnson can be sort of a poor man's T.Y. Hilton/DeSean Jackson here with the ceiling to potentially become an Emmanuel Sanders type, but he's unlikely to become a true #1 target. Given how high Campbell and JJAW have been going in my drafts, I've been surprised to see Johnson sliding so much further, although Ben's age casts doubt over the long-term quality of this situation.
WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - Ostensibly the Tyreek Hill replacement if Hill is done in KC, but despite some similar qualities on paper, he's not really in the same ballpark. Not nearly as athletic or elusive. Could be a useful depth player for KC, but I don't see starter talent and will be avoiding him at his ADP. I think KC panicked, tried to fill a need, and reached for the wrong player. Time will tell.
WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - Another guy who doesn't play up to his measurables. On paper, he's an athletic monster with a big frame and outstanding overall explosiveness. He's a bit of a looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane though. Seems to coast in games and doesn't play with the suddenness or aggression that you expect from someone with this size/explosiveness. He should look dominant out there, but instead he just looks ordindary. He has an interesting set of athletic traits to work with and if the Ravens can tap into that unlock his full potential then maybe they'll have something special on their hands. He's not a bad athlete and moves fluidly for a big WR, but right now he's a 4.42 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy.
WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - A poor man's Keenan Allen with a long frame and a game based on quickness and RAC rather than flat out speed. However, despite his RB background, he's not as solid through the lower body and his long frame makes him ungainly in 1v1 situations. He's a competitive player and the type who can produce if called upon. I feel like he could force his way onto the field and become a useful gadget player, but he can't play RB in the NFL and I'm lukewarm on his potential as an outside WR. I consider him draftable at his ADP, but far from a lock.
WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - A straight-line speedster type whose game reminds of Marquise Goodwin. Suspect route running and agility. I lean towards him being a one-trick-pony in the NFL whose game is too limited to ever become a reliable FF performer, but the draft slot and workout numbers are worth a look.
I haven't really spent as much time on the TEs yet, but so far I like Fant > Hockenson. I'm normally very bullish on TEs and have been a big fan of Eifert, Ebron, and Hurst in recent years. This year I have to admit that I don't quite see what's so special about Hockenson to justify such a high pick. He doesn't appear to be a Winslow or even Ebron level talent as a receiver, but when a TE goes that high it sets off the alarm, so I'll have to take a longer look. Of the day 2-3 guys, Sample looks like a blocker first and a receiver second. Knox has good athletic traits that translate to the field. Sternberger, Warring, and Smith showed flashes.
I haven't spent a minute on the QBs and have nothing to add there right now.
Overall, I don't like this class. My top 5 would be Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, Samuel, and Harry in some order. I'm relatively confident in that group, but after that, my confidence erodes quickly. Damien Harris is a high floor prospect, but the majority of my third tier RBs/WRs look like dice throws to me. Usually I will have some solid targets in the 10-20 range, but this year it's feeling more like pin the tail on the donkey.
