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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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12 hours ago, EBF said:

A-Rob was definitely overrated going into last year. You can't rely on him. One good year in 5 NFL seasons so far.

That being said, he had 754 yards on 94 targets with a rookie QB on a new team. That's really not that bad.

If you assume his target total could climb to the ~150 he got in his peak Jacksonville seasons without a significant drop in efficiency then you get a ~1200 yard receiver.

He's easily the best WR on the Bears and if you assume progress from Trubisky then you might have a 1000 yard guy and a good WR2-WR3.

I wouldn't give a future first for him because if it ends up being a top 3 pick then you're taking an L, but at 25 years old as an NFL WR1 with a 1400+ yard season in his past, he could justify a late 1st for sure.

This is an interesting topic. I've never owned ARob in a dynasty league before but have been sending out feelers for him for the first time this offseason. I've done so for the following reasons:

  • Perceived value is way down. For example, people say things like "one good year out of five" ignoring some critical aspects:
    • 1) He was a very young rookie, at age 21.0 when the season started. Guys like Deebo and Calvin Ridley will be/were almost 24 when they started their rookie seasons and most rookie WRs are somewhere around 22.
    • 2) His points per target in his 2nd season were actually elite even when not in garbage time. I found this out by accident when looking into garbage time PPT a couple years ago.
    • 3) The QB play was terrible in his 3rd season. Similar to Hopkins with Osweiller. Their stat lines: 150-73-883-6 vs 151-78-954-4
    • 4) He missed 15 games in his 4th season - so at a minimum, we should say one good year out of four.
    • 5) He was hampered by a groin injury for much of the year and missed three games outright. Was on pace for 116 targets - 68/954/5 while playing through injury.
  • Trubisky wasn't good last year and probably never will be, but he also wasn't terrible. Between Nagy's scheme and Trubisky's arm, I'm willing to say "targets are targets" in this case and I expect a healthy Robinson to get at least 120. Even given his injured state last year, that should be good enough for 1000 yards.
  • Chicago just invested in a grinder at RB, so maybe they don't intend to throw more, but they ranked 25th in pass attempts last year so there is room to grow in that aspect in Trubisky's 3rd season. Again, I wouldn't count on it, but it adds to ARob's intrigue for me.
  • He's got very little competition for targets. I know Anthony Miller was a hot topic last year, but as a 23.9 year old rookie (yes, he's only 1 year younger than ARob), he didn't strike me as a guy who will ever compete to be a team's WR1.
  • I know people draft weirdly in startups, but I don't think I've seen ARob go after 1.05 in any of the startups I've seen and those were all before the disappointing NFL draft.
  • Say what you will about his 4 seasons in the NFL, but he's clearly shown legitimate NFL ability which the rookies have not and he's got a clear path to targets now which most of the rookies also do not. Given the historic bust rate of rookies, the NFL draft slide many of them had, and the landing spots of some of them, I honestly think I'd take him over all of the rookies. I'm not advocating anyone paying an early 1st for him (why pay more than you have to? trade back and then trade for him), but fantasy football is a game of probabilities and I like his odds better than a mid-to-late 1st round fantasy rookie pick.

That being said, I agree with EBF that I would not give a future 1st. I think we're all excited about the 2020 class and if you're one WR2 away from being a playoff caliber team then you're also thin on depth and therefore probably one injury away from being a lottery team.

I would love to hear the specific rookie WRs people value over him in the 1.05-1.12 range.

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7 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

This is an interesting topic. I've never owned ARob in a dynasty league before but have been sending out feelers for him for the first time this offseason. I've done so for the following reasons:

  • Perceived value is way down. For example, people say things like "one good year out of five" ignoring some critical aspects:
    • 1) He was a very young rookie, at age 21.0 when the season started. Guys like Deebo and Calvin Ridley will be/were almost 24 when they started their rookie seasons and most rookie WRs are somewhere around 22.
    • 2) His points per target in his 2nd season were actually elite even when not in garbage time. I found this out by accident when looking into garbage time PPT a couple years ago.
    • 3) The QB play was terrible in his 3rd season. Similar to Hopkins with Osweiller. Their stat lines: 150-73-883-6 vs 151-78-954-4
    • 4) He missed 15 games in his 4th season - so at a minimum, we should say one good year out of four.
    • 5) He was hampered by a groin injury for much of the year and missed three games outright. Was on pace for 116 targets - 68/954/5 while playing through injury.
  • Trubisky wasn't good last year and probably never will be, but he also wasn't terrible. Between Nagy's scheme and Trubisky's arm, I'm willing to say "targets are targets" in this case and I expect a healthy Robinson to get at least 120. Even given his injured state last year, that should be good enough for 1000 yards.
  • Chicago just invested in a grinder at RB, so maybe they don't intend to throw more, but they ranked 25th in pass attempts last year so there is room to grow in that aspect in Trubisky's 3rd season. Again, I wouldn't count on it, but it adds to ARob's intrigue for me.
  • He's got very little competition for targets. I know Anthony Miller was a hot topic last year, but as a 23.9 year old rookie (yes, he's only 1 year younger than ARob), he didn't strike me as a guy who will ever compete to be a team's WR1.
  • I know people draft weirdly in startups, but I don't think I've seen ARob go after 1.05 in any of the startups I've seen and those were all before the disappointing NFL draft.
  • Say what you will about his 4 seasons in the NFL, but he's clearly shown legitimate NFL ability which the rookies have not and he's got a clear path to targets now which most of the rookies also do not. Given the historic bust rate of rookies, the NFL draft slide many of them had, and the landing spots of some of them, I honestly think I'd take him over all of the rookies. I'm not advocating anyone paying an early 1st for him (why pay more than you have to? trade back and then trade for him), but fantasy football is a game of probabilities and I like his odds better than a mid-to-late 1st round fantasy rookie pick.

That being said, I agree with EBF that I would not give a future 1st. I think we're all excited about the 2020 class and if you're one WR2 away from being a playoff caliber team then you're also thin on depth and therefore probably one injury away from being a lottery team.

I would love to hear the specific rookie WRs people value over him in the 1.05-1.12 range.

That's some top quality stuff. Thanks

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I’d trade Robinson for a late 1st. I’d take Murray and Fant over him, in addition to the usual 5-7 suspects.

I think he had his fluky Braylon Edwards season and isn’t a true #1. 

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’d trade Robinson for a late 1st. I’d take Murray and Fant over him, in addition to the usual 5-7 suspects.

I think he had his fluky Braylon Edwards season and isn’t a true #1. 

Are we talking superflex? I was assuming 1QB for this hypothetical. I disagree with both, but appreciate the answer all the same. I'm assuming the usual 5-7 would be Jacobs, Harry, Montgomery, Sanders, Metcalf, Hockenson, and AJ Brown.

P.S. Wasn't your rule of thumb to never draft rookie TEs? ;)

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Are we talking superflex? I was assuming 1QB for this hypothetical. I disagree with both, but appreciate the answer all the same. I'm assuming the usual 5-7 would be Jacobs, Harry, Montgomery, Sanders, Metcalf, Hockenson, and AJ Brown.

P.S. Wasn't your rule of thumb to never draft rookie TEs? ;)

I missed the SF part, if so. Add Haskins then. 

Almost never, and won’t this year. I’d much rather trade late 1sts for 2020 1sts, but would take Fant for ARob.

Certainly risky, as there is a believable pro-Robinson narrative, and he’s still pretty young.

Edited by Concept Coop

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I missed the SF part, if so. Add Haskins then. 

Almost never, and won’t this year. I’d much rather trade late 1sts for 2020 1sts, but would take Fant for ARob.

Certainly risky, as there is a believable pro-Robinson narrative, and he’s still pretty young.

I think we all would.

But no, I wasn't talking superflex above. I was asking if you were talking superflex since you mentioned taking Murray in the 1st. 

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19 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’d trade Robinson for a late 1st. I’d take Murray and Fant over him, in addition to the usual 5-7 suspects.

I think he had his fluky Braylon Edwards season and isn’t a true #1. 

I agree and to add to this I had a league where someone kept posting that Robinson was available and I needed another fairly young WR. I was sitting on pick 11, thought about offering it, could not bring myself to do it for a player I'm not high on. Ended up drafting Deebo at 11 and Paris Campbell went 2.1.

I like Robinson more then the player who went 1.12 but in this league I'd not have given 2.1 for him if he was offered to me while OTC, would have given 2.2.

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I’m a Murray truther. He’s my favorite fantasy qb prospect since Luck/RG3. I don’t know if I’ve ever spent a 1st round pick on a rookie qb in start 1 formats. I would for Murray.

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15 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check on Damien Williams? 

1.5 seems reasonable to me. Glass half empty types will scoff at that price for such a short resume, and glass half full types, will see a guy who was an RB1 down the stretch, and received no real competition for carries this off season. The truth is probably somewhere in between. 

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9 minutes ago, travdogg said:

1.5 seems reasonable to me. Glass half empty types will scoff at that price for such a short resume, and glass half full types, will see a guy who was an RB1 down the stretch, and received no real competition for carries this off season. The truth is probably somewhere in between. 

His value is way too soft for a 1.5 type of pick...he could be easily replaced by this time next year

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29 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

No way on earth im giving up  first for allen robinson..wish i had him to pawn him off

Totally disagree.

1 minute ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

His value is way too soft for a 1.5 type of pick...he could be easily replaced by this time next year

Totally agree.

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This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

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I think people are really sleeping on Robinson this year. Another year removed from his injury and had a stellar wild card game to end the season. Mitch's WR1 and not close. 

Edited by Denver724

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Just now, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

Robinson for me. 

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5 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

Its close, but I prefer Robinson. The uncertainty over what the Bengals offense will look like clinches it for me.

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18 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

Boyd by a lot, for me.

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25 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

I'll take the guy who is WR1 for his team. Age difference is only 1 year.

DLF startup ADP: 48 - Robinson vs. 54 - Boyd

FBG dynasty rank: WR20 - Robinson, WR26 - Boyd

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50 minutes ago, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

Comfortably prefer Boyd 

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31 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'll take the guy who is WR1 for his team. Age difference is only 1 year.

DLF startup ADP: 48 - Robinson vs. 54 - Boyd

FBG dynasty rank: WR20 - Robinson, WR26 - Boyd

Would you take ARob over Thielen or Diggs? Or Ridley, Godwin, Landry?

I’m not sure how much the WR1 v WR2 distinction matters anymore. Targets are targets.

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1 hour ago, Ratbone said:

This discussion just happened in another league. One owner thinks Robinson is worth more than Boyd. The other the opposite. Who would you rather have Boyd or Robinson? It's PPR.  I am asking to see if I am way off on my valuations. 

Robinson and not close.  

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4 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Would you take ARob over Thielen or Diggs? Or Ridley, Godwin, Landry?

I’m not sure how much the WR1 v WR2 distinction matters anymore. Targets are targets.

Only over Godwin and Landry.  Never been a big Landry fan.   Godwin is more a toss up. 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Would you take ARob over Thielen or Diggs? Or Ridley, Godwin, Landry?

I’m not sure how much the WR1 v WR2 distinction matters anymore. Targets are targets.

Thse arob guys are gonna be bumminh when anthony miller out scores him this year

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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Would you take ARob over Thielen or Diggs? Or Ridley, Godwin, Landry?

I’m not sure how much the WR1 v WR2 distinction matters anymore. Targets are targets.

Minnesota ranked 6th in pass attempts with 606. Cincinnati ranked 18th with 545. Chicago was 25th with 512. Atlanta was 5th with 617. Tampa... well, that will be very interesting with Arians in town.

You are correct that targets are targets, but to me AJG is going to soak up targets when he's healthy and Cincy doesn't pass enough to feed their WR2 enough to surpass another low volume passing attack's WR1.  

ETA: forgot Landry's team, but I don't really know what to expect for Landry. From week 4 on, Cleveland ranked 12th in pass attempts. But I don't like Landry as a fantasy player, so I'd still take Robinson over him. Landry is about a year older, FWIW.

Edited by FF Ninja

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

Minnesota ranked 6th in pass attempts with 606. Cincinnati ranked 18th with 545. Chicago was 25th with 512. Atlanta was 5th with 617. Tampa... well, that will be very interesting with Arians in town.

You are correct that targets are targets, but to me AJG is going to soak up targets when he's healthy and Cincy doesn't pass enough to feed their WR2 enough to surpass another low volume passing attack's WR1.  

Boyd’s numbers were steady last season, whether Green played or not. Even as the #2 in the 18th ranked passing offense, Boyd got more targets than Robinson and was a lot more productive with them.

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12 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Boyd’s numbers were steady last season, whether Green played or not. Even as the #2 in the 18th ranked passing offense, Boyd got more targets than Robinson and was a lot more productive with them.

Robinson was hampered by a groin injury most of last year. 

But you're right - I had to check and Boyd did have 66 targets in the first 8 games and put up 49/620/5. He somehow averaged fewer targets after AJG's injury. Weird. 

ETA: looked a little deeper and Dalton got hurt - I completely forgot about that. He had thrown the ball 292 times in 8 games. Not sure I'd expect that pace to have continued, but FWIW, that would've put the Bengals at 8th in pass attempts for the year if they'd kept it up.

Edited by FF Ninja

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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Robinson was hampered by a groin injury most of last year. 

But you're right - I had to check and Boyd did have 66 targets in the first 8 games and put up 49/620/5. He somehow averaged fewer targets after AJG's injury. Weird. 

AJG pulls coverage, Dalton goes to second option. AJG gets hurt, Boyd assumes #1 role and gets coverage, Dalton goes to second option (which is no longer Boyd). Without looking at any actual data, so take it with a grain of salt. Just seems like a plausible explanation. If that was the case, I'd say it could be an indicator of Boyd's ability to progress to true WR1 status. 

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10 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

AJG pulls coverage, Dalton goes to second option. AJG gets hurt, Boyd assumes #1 role and gets coverage, Dalton goes to second option (which is no longer Boyd). Without looking at any actual data, so take it with a grain of salt. Just seems like a plausible explanation. If that was the case, I'd say it could be an indicator of Boyd's ability to progress to true WR1 status. 

Boyd got hurt late in the year as well. Without looking it up I think he missed part of week 16 and sat week 17.

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21 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

AJG pulls coverage, Dalton goes to second option. AJG gets hurt, Boyd assumes #1 role and gets coverage, Dalton goes to second option (which is no longer Boyd). Without looking at any actual data, so take it with a grain of salt. Just seems like a plausible explanation. If that was the case, I'd say it could be an indicator of Boyd's ability to progress to true WR1 status. 

Boyd was noticeably less useful for fantasy after Green went down. I have not looked at the data, it's just my murky recollection of it. But I also recollect the same argument being made, that he had coverage rolled to him once Green went down. Makes sense.

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Per ZWK:

”Boyd had 76/1028/7 last year in 14 games, on pace for 87/1175/8, with 9.52 yards per target.

He played 8 games with both Dalton & Green playing, 2 games with Dalton and no Green, and 4 games with Driskel as the main QB and (at least mostly) no Green. In each of those 3 setups, he averaged at least 68 yards per game and 9 yards per target.”

68*16=1,088

Boyd was consistent last year, whether Green played or not, whether Dalton played or not. And Jeff Driskel is awful.

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I am not a huge Robinson fan but it's worth noting he was pretty solid after he finally sat for a few weeks and let his groin heal up.

After coming back from the injury in week 10, counting the playoffs he went 40/612/3 in 8 games, which is 80/1224/6 over a 16 game season.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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35 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Per ZWK:

”Boyd had 76/1028/7 last year in 14 games, on pace for 87/1175/8, with 9.52 yards per target.

He played 8 games with both Dalton & Green playing, 2 games with Dalton and no Green, and 4 games with Driskel as the main QB and (at least mostly) no Green. In each of those 3 setups, he averaged at least 68 yards per game and 9 yards per target.”

68*16=1,088

Boyd was consistent last year, whether Green played or not, whether Dalton played or not. And Jeff Driskel is awful.

Totally forgot about Driskel. 

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16 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am not a huge Robinson fan but it's worth noting he was pretty solid after he finally sat for a few weeks and let his groin heal up.

After coming back from the injury in week 10, counting the playoffs he went 40/612/3 in 8 games, which is 80/1224/6 over a 16 game season.

That’s fair to note. It’s also fair to note that Robinson’s playoff performance - his best of the season and an obvious outlier - came against the worst secondary in the league, at that point in the season. Philly was missing their top 3 corners and starting guys they picked up off of waivers.

Those per/16 numbers look great, but I’m not sure they mean anything. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am not a huge Robinson fan but it's worth noting he was pretty solid after he finally sat for a few weeks and let his groin heal up.

After coming back from the injury in week 10, counting the playoffs he went 40/612/3 in 8 games, which is 80/1224/6 over a 16 game season.

6-133-2, 31.3 pts (ppr)

3-39-0, 6.9

2-37-0, 5.7

5-79-0, 12.9

5-42-0, 9.2

3-54-0, 8.4

6-85-0, 14.5

10-143-1, 30.3 

Just can’t quite fully get on board the extrapolation game over an 8 game sample size.  He’s been pretty consistently mediocre, with a couple monsters bookending that stretch.   I think he’s an adequate WR3, but not one I’d be very confident rolling out weekly.

 

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair to note. It’s also fair to note that Robinson’s playoff performance - his best of the season and an obvious outlier - came against the worst secondary in the league, at that point in the season. Philly was missing their top 3 corners and starting guys they picked up off of waivers.

Those per/16 numbers look great, but I’m not sure they mean anything. 

10/143/1 = 30.3 points

His best game was 6/133/2 = 31.3 points

So maybe two outliers? :P

Players have bizarre 8 game splits all the time, so you're right they don't mean much. But when a player is semi-healthy for one (he was still on the injury report with a hip injury in the second half of the season) and injured for the other, I give the splits a little closer attention.

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So in PPR I have the split between the first 8 games played with Green and the next 6 played without Green breaking down as follows:

With Green, Boyd earned 17.7 FPs per game

W/O Green, Boyd earned 13.3 FPs per game

This is just one look at it, I'm not saying this is proof positive or anything. Take it as you will. Also, Boyd did better with Driskel than he did with Dalton (in games without Green). Not saying he can't be a productive WR without Green, and I actually really like him, but I'm not sure we can say he would produce as well without him drawing coverage away. In his first 8 games with both Green and Dalton, he scored over 20 FPs 5 times. Once without Green in 6 attempts, thanks to a garbage time TD pass by Driskel in a game they were down 35-7.

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9 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair to note. It’s also fair to note that Robinson’s playoff performance - his best of the season and an obvious outlier - came against the worst secondary in the league, at that point in the season. Philly was missing their top 3 corners and starting guys they picked up off of waivers.

Those per/16 numbers look great, but I’m not sure they mean anything. 

Sure but when we are talking about WR2's that's generally how things go.  ARob and Boyd both had 3 games that really stand out against the rest of their season, with Boyd's best likewise coming against an awful defense (Tampa).

Amari Cooper had 2 games with 40+ fantasy points, and 8 games with single digit points.  Chris Godwin was two big games and a bag of chips and people can't wait to get their hands on him.

Cooper is actually a really interesting comparison.

Cooper after going to Dallas
16.8
13.5
6.6
38.0
13.6
49.7
8.3
6.0
6.1

ARob after finally sitting out and letting the groin heal up
31.3
6.9
5.7
12.2
9.2
8.4
13.4
30.3

They both had 4 games in single digits, 2 games of 30+, and the rest of the games in the teens.

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

Sure but when we are talking about WR2's that's generally how things go.  ARob and Boyd both had 3 games that really stand out against the rest of their season, with Boyd's best likewise coming against an awful defense (Tampa).

Amari Cooper had 2 games with 40+ fantasy points, and 8 games with single digit points.  Chris Godwin was two big games and a bag of chips and people can't wait to get their hands on him.

Cooper is actually a really interesting comparison.

Cooper after going to Dallas
16.8
13.5
6.6
38.0
13.6
49.7
8.3
6.0
6.1

ARob after finally sitting out and letting the groin heal up
31.3
6.9
5.7
12.2
9.2
8.4
13.4
30.3

They both had 4 games in single digits, 2 games of 30+, and the rest of the games in the teens.

Boyd scored in double digits in 9 of his 14 games. He scored 20 points in 6 of them. 25 points “really stands out” in 28, 25, 25, 21, 21, 21? I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. Even cherry picking games, Robinson wasn’t nearly as consistent. 

And why are you including playoff games for Robinson but not Cooper? That makes no sense. Be consistent and the comparison falls apart.

 

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4 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

And why are you including playoff games for Robinson but not Cooper? That makes no sense. Be consistent and the comparison falls apart.

:lmao: honestly I forgot Dallas even made the playoffs, I guess I am so used to them disappointing now it's just pre-programmed in my brain.  Fair point, as Cooper had 2 good games in the playoffs as well (17pts and 18pts).

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

Moore is more valuable than Robinson straight up. 

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2 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

I'd call that way too much for Robinson. DJ Moore is a WR2 in my opinion, who is what 23? Moore is also an undisputed #1 WR, and showed some major big play ability last year. 

Anderson and Miller for Robinson is a fair offer. I'm not a Robby Anderson guy at all though. I think he's got an interesting situation, I just don't trust him to stay on the field at all, plus he's an impending FA. 

Basically, Moore>Robinson>>Miller>Anderson

 

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I have DJ Moore on one team and I basically consider him untouchable.

Sometimes these guys never live up to the ceiling we imagine, but he's the type of guy who can make you regret that for years and years.

Freak athlete on paper and it translates to the field. We may just be scratching the surface.

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9 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

Redraft I'd say Moore & Robinson are fairly even (if you believe in Robinson, which I don't) and in dynasty it would take Robinson + for me to give up Moore. (I don't own either, anywhere)

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On 5/6/2019 at 2:45 PM, Flying Elvis said:

Price check on Mike Williams WR LAC... anyone seeing him in trades? 

Most trade calculators / value charts / etc. seem to have him worth less than I'd trade him for but nobody is biting in leagues where I try to acquire him.

 

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

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20 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

I'd put Mike Williams around 1.5. He's got a lot going for him, big TD threat, also gets a lot of deep passes, and was a top-10 pick, who looked much improved in year 2. However, its unlikely he passes Keenan Allen anytime soon, and who knows how long Rivers has. Tyrell Williams leaving is offset by the return of Hunter Henry. 

I'd be feeling fine with Williams as a WR3.

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1 hour ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

Williams is big targets of mine this off-season. I traded a late 2020 1st, late 2020 2nd, and Matt Ryan in a 12 Tm, 4pt passing TD, PPR league. I was stoked to get him for that.

In terms of 2019 rookie picks - I’d trade him for Jacobs without thought. I might prefer Harry, but it’s close. So I personally value him in the 1.02 - 1.03 range, but he should come cheaper than that.

i don’t think his situation is a negative. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to score points and if he’s the real deal, he’ll get plenty. And the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season, as they have in the past. 

He has elite traits, but needs to get separation more consistently. If he can sharpen his routes, he can be a top 10 fantasy WR. If he can’t or doesn’t, I think he’s a TD dependent WR3.

Edited by Concept Coop
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46 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on DJ Moore in PPR? I am trying to get Allen Robinson off his owner & he wants DJ Moore + Lamar Miller for him. I felt that was too high & so does every trade calculator. I know Miller's value is not high, but decent depth is nice to have IMO.

Would countering with Robby Anderson instead of DJ be fair or should I just take his offer?

According to ADP data, Moore is at 38 overall which is 10 before Robinson, so the other guy should pay extra.

30 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Anyone care to circle back around to this one? 

Anyone?

Beuller?

His ADP is 53, right ahead of Boyd.

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42 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Williams is one of my big targets this off-season. I traded a late 2020 1st, late 2020 2nd, and Matt Ryan in a 12 Tm, PPR, 4 pt passing TD league. I was stoked to get him for that.

In terms of 2019 rookie picks - I’d trade him for Jacobs without thought. I might prefer Harry, but it’s close. So I personally value him in the 1.02 - 1.03 range, but he should come cheaper than that.

i don’t think his situation is a negative. He doesn’t need a ton of targets to score points and if he’s the real deal, he’ll get plenty. The Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season.

He has elite traits, but needs to get separation more consistently. If he can sharpen his routes, he can be a top 10 fantasy WR. If he can’t or doesn’t, I think he’s a TD dependent WR3.

Awesome... that first one is a nice barometer. 

 

Thanks for the replies @travdogg and @FF Ninja

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

DJ Moore is a WR2 in my opinion, who is what 23?

Not even.  He just turned 22.

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7 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

And the Chargers are likely to throw a lot more than they did last season, as they have in the past.

This is false, barring injuries. Reasons:

  1. HC Lynn wants a balanced offense. And when I say balanced, Lynn really wants something more skewed toward the run than true balance.
  2. The Chargers OL was near the bottom of the league at pass blocking but was somewhat better at run blocking. The team did not take any significant steps to improve the pass blocking.
  3. The Chargers defense is positioned to be elite in 2019 and beyond. How far beyond is hard to predict given injuries, contracts, etc. But for 2019, there is no reason to expect more passing, given that the defense should be even better than it was last year.
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