Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

[Zyphros 1,813]

13 hours ago, DropKick said:

Value check on Waller.  He is a luxury as I have two other elite/solid TE options.  Prefer a starting caliber RB/WR, but would consider a longer term asset with some present value (Metcalf? AJ Brown?)  Doubt I could land a young back in this league.

He should be viewed pretty closely to Evan Engram I would imagine.  I still put him below due to age and longevity of production but he's in that conversation.  TE premium he's worth quite a bit more than a good showing rookie.  Not TE premium I think he's pretty close to those types of guys.  

25 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Did we overrate Juju?

There’s a security that comes with elite NFL players and I don’t Juju offers that. He’s not situation proof but we treated him like he was. His production was propped up by playing the slot in a pass happy offense with a QB capable of creating outside of the system and a HOFer (based on talent) pulling coverage on the other side. He’s not an elite NFL athlete - and while he has a plus catch radius and huge hands, he doesn’t use them as effectively as Hopkins and OBJ. 

He’s obviously a very talented player and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming an elite receiver eventually. But his situation is unlikely to be as good as it was last season anytime soon, if ever. It’s fair to ask what he is outside of that. 

I know this likely sounds hot takey and the timing is convenient. But if owners are still willing to add to guys like Godwin, Evans, or Adams for Juju, I’m selling. 

Hindsight he was definitely overrated.  I'm still happy with what he's done in a not so great situation if I paid a 1st round startup pick as a cornerstone of my team.  He's still a highly ranked guy, but he's more WR2 than WR1 for now.  Ben comes back next year and I expect Diontae to take a big step by then, plus whoever else they add in 2020 (which they will).  He just might be undervalued by then.  I expect him to still be a top36 pick next year.  That's a far cry from top10 but he won't plummet more than that.  I wouldn't want to sell him unless it's as if he's a top10 pick still.  And even then it would make me nervous because I know he'll trend up in the future (compared to right now where he's suppressed).  

[tombonneau 926]

35 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What's the value of Juju in dynasty PPR now? I am looking to cash out. I was offered David Johnson straight up, but this is a league that heavily favors WRs (Start 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE + 2 flex) I also have a hole @ TE, but aside from kelce, I can't see a TE I'd move him straight up for.

DJ has what, 2 years left of any good FF production? Not sure I should do it.

If you want out I'd offer JuJu and a second for a young WR you like. Or converse offer JuJu for a vet plus pick(s). TY would be a great target. 

[Concept Coop 1,587]

47 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What's the value of Juju in dynasty PPR now? I am looking to cash out. I was offered David Johnson straight up, but this is a league that heavily favors WRs (Start 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE + 2 flex) I also have a hole @ TE, but aside from kelce, I can't see a TE I'd move him straight up for.

DJ has what, 2 years left of any good FF production? Not sure I should do it.

I wouldn't move him for DJ. You might be able to get Chubb or Cook and I'd consider that. At TE I'd be tempted to move him for Engram personally. But if you're not on board with that, I'd target the top guys and an additional piece. Ertz or Andrews and a mid-1st, Kittle and a late first, etc.

Maybe I'm off, but the feeling I get is that many still see him as a top 5ish dynasty WR.

[EBF 1,913]

JuJu will be fine long-term. 3/4 games above 75 receiving yards this season despite everything. Still on pace for 1k+ yards.

I've said it before, but he is more Boldin/Ward than TO/Julio. Very good. Not quite a monster.

If people viewed him as a transcendental talent then they were setting themselves up for disappointment, but at the same time if you overreact and sell now then you may live to regret it. A 22 year old WR who's likely to flirt with 1000+ yards every season is not something that you should dump lightly in dynasty leagues at the first sign of adversity. I'm a little concerned about his propensity to get dinged up and pick up minor injuries, which has been a thing dating back to his USC days, but that's something you have to live with in the NFL for most players. Beyond that, there's not much cause for long-term concern. It will actually be a great thing for him if Johnson becomes a viable threat, as the Pitt offense has always relied on prolific deep threats to open up the underneath stuff (Burress/Ward, Holmes/Ward, Martavis/AB, AB/JuJu, etc). They have always put a huge premium on finding those vertical guys in the draft (Wheaton, Coates, Washington, and D Johnson in recent years).

[Arodin 3,083]

7 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Did we overrate Juju?

There’s a security that comes with elite NFL players and I don’t Juju offers that. He’s not situation proof but we treated him like he was. His production was propped up by playing the slot in a pass happy offense with a QB capable of creating outside of the system and a HOFer (based on talent) pulling coverage on the other side. He’s not an elite NFL athlete - and while he has a plus catch radius and huge hands, he doesn’t use them as effectively as Hopkins and OBJ. 

He’s obviously a very talented player and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him becoming an elite receiver eventually. But his situation is unlikely to be as good as it was last season anytime soon, if ever. It’s fair to ask what he is outside of that. 

I know this likely sounds hot takey and the timing is convenient. But if owners are still willing to add to guys like Godwin, Evans, or Adams for Juju, I’m selling. 

 

6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

He should be viewed pretty closely to Evan Engram I would imagine.  I still put him below due to age and longevity of production but he's in that conversation.  TE premium he's worth quite a bit more than a good showing rookie.  Not TE premium I think he's pretty close to those types of guys.  

Hindsight he was definitely overrated.  I'm still happy with what he's done in a not so great situation if I paid a 1st round startup pick as a cornerstone of my team.  He's still a highly ranked guy, but he's more WR2 than WR1 for now.  Ben comes back next year and I expect Diontae to take a big step by then, plus whoever else they add in 2020 (which they will).  He just might be undervalued by then.  I expect him to still be a top36 pick next year.  That's a far cry from top10 but he won't plummet more than that.  I wouldn't want to sell him unless it's as if he's a top10 pick still.  And even then it would make me nervous because I know he'll trend up in the future (compared to right now where he's suppressed).  

Not convinced he is overrated.

I recall Antonio Brown, legitimately the best WR in football at the time, being completely neutered by a woeful progression of Ben backups that couldn’t live up to the title “NFL-ready QB.”  He bounced right back with setvicable QB play.

M. Rudolph seems about as ready for the NFL as Pittsburgh Vick or Landry Jones.  Juju will be fine once the Steelers hit journeyman-level play at QB.

[Concept Coop 1,587]

14 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Not convinced he is overrated.

I recall Antonio Brown, legitimately the best WR in football at the time, being completely neutered by a woeful progression of Ben backups that couldn’t live up to the title “NFL-ready QB.”  He bounced right back with setvicable QB play.

M. Rudolph seems about as ready for the NFL as Pittsburgh Vick or Landry Jones.  Juju will be fine once the Steelers hit journeyman-level play at QB.

You could be right - and I do expect some kind of bounce back. I just think his raw production needs some additional context. On paper it places him next to guys like Green and Julio, but I don’t think he’s on that level. He’s plenty talented though; I don’t mean to dispute that.

[Concept Coop 1,587]

52 minutes ago, EBF said:

I've said it before, but he is more Boldin/Ward than TO/Julio. Very good. Not quite a monster.

If people viewed him as a transcendental talent then they were setting themselves up for disappointment...

To be fair I don’t recall anyone calling him a transcendental talent. But a few had him as the WR1 and I’ve seen a few Hopkins comparisons, which is is pretty damn close. 

[lardonastick 899]

Price check on Philip Dorsett? I'd like to move him now when he has a little value; I'm not a believer. Worth a 2nd?

[voiceofunreason 1,001]

57 minutes ago, lardonastick said:

Price check on Philip Dorsett? I'd like to move him now when he has a little value; I'm not a believer. Worth a 2nd?

Maybe a third at most but you never know.

[DirtyCashDylan 78]

What's Shady worth to you guys?

[DAG 238]

8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Maybe a third at most but you never know.

Yeah. If someone offered me a second for Dorsett I’d jump on that. I think he’s more realistically worth a third. 

Edited October 5, 2019 by DAG

[Interseptopus 5,722]

Michael Gallup- more or less than 2020 2.1? 

Have an opportunity to buy... not sure I want to give the expected 2.1

[Dr. Octopus 14,304]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Michael Gallup- more or less than 2020 2.1? 

Have an opportunity to buy... not sure I want to give the expected 2.1

I’d keep the pick. It’s value can only really go up. Gallup’s value may go up or down and I doubt he helps much for this season.

[Interseptopus 5,722]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I’d keep the pick. It’s value can only really go up. Gallup’s value may go up or down and I doubt he helps much for this season.

my thought too, thanks. I offered Corey Davis and a lotto rb, declined so probably not a match 

[Interseptopus 5,722]

7 hours ago, DirtyCashDylan said:

What's Shady worth to you guys?

I wouldnt give more than a 2020 3rd personally 

[tangfoot 1,901]

15 hours ago, DirtyCashDylan said:

What's Shady worth to you guys?

One of the 2nd round WRs from 2019 who aren’t producing yet, and then only on a team that thinks they can win it all this season

[cloppbeast 1,343]

22 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

my thought too, thanks. I offered Corey Davis and a lotto rb, declined so probably not a match 

I was trying to get him for a 3rd but the guy wants a 2nd. Cant do it.

[kittenmittens 1,241]

Price check on OJ Howard?

I'm thinking of catching the falling knife in my rebuilds... dont want to overpay though.  Where is his price at right now?

 

[DAG 238]

11 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Price check on OJ Howard?

I'm thinking of catching the falling knife in my rebuilds... dont want to overpay though.  Where is his price at right now?

 

I like him as a rebuild target if he comes at an appropriate discount. I’m still 100% in on his talent. I do worry about the uncertainty w Arians: is it actually his system vs is Howard not playing well. 

[kittenmittens 1,241]

2 minutes ago, DAG said:

I like him as a rebuild target if he comes at an appropriate discount. I’m still 100% in on his talent. I do worry about the uncertainty w Arians: is it actually his system vs is Howard not playing well. 

What's your take on the appropriate discount?  I think he's lost a lot of value and I'm not sure I see that turning around anytime soon and he probably hasn't bottomed out yet.  I also don't want to get beat to the punch by another owner though :).

[Gally 4,104]

On ‎10‎/‎5‎/‎2019 at 7:03 AM, Dr. Dan said:

Michael Gallup- more or less than 2020 2.1? 

Have an opportunity to buy... not sure I want to give the expected 2.1

I just offered up Hopkins ($49 out of $250 cap) for Gallup ($5), Bradley Chubb ($10/2020) (big play IDP scoring), and 2020 late 1st (likely 10-12) and the guy said I was sniffing glue and was asking for way too much for Hopkins. 

 

Hopkins seems to be plummeting in value in my league.  I am in cap hell as I have Lamar Jackson (in SF) and N. Chubb who are expected to max escalate (if they finish top 5 at their position) so I am trying to move Hopkins to free up space.  The guy with Chark ($5) says he wouldn't trade him straight up for Hopkins.  I think that is absurd.

 

Is anybody else trying to move Hopkins and finding his value has plummeted? 

[DAG 238]

19 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

What's your take on the appropriate discount?  I think he's lost a lot of value and I'm not sure I see that turning around anytime soon and he probably hasn't bottomed out yet.  I also don't want to get beat to the punch by another owner though :).

Good question. I could see giving an aging but still productive player; I like to make these kinds of moves in rebuilds because my draft pick gets higher for this year and I get exit value from a veteran. As far as draft picks I don't know....mid to late 2nd/early 3rd? I have no sense of what's realistic. I guess if the owner is really down on him long term he may be looking to get what he can. 

[kittenmittens 1,241]

2 minutes ago, DAG said:

Good question. I could see giving an aging but still productive player; I like to make these kinds of moves in rebuilds because my draft pick gets higher for this year and I get exit value from a veteran. As far as draft picks I don't know....mid to late 2nd/early 3rd? I have no sense of what's realistic. I guess if the owner is really down on him long term he may be looking to get what he can. 

Thanks, that draft pick compensation is right about where I think he is too. Have to be the right owner though l think. 

Edited October 9, 2019 by kittenmittens

[Interseptopus 5,722]

3 hours ago, Gally said:

 

Is anybody else trying to move Hopkins and finding his value has plummeted? 

Not Hopkins but the OBJ owner has been desperately trying to move him to me. Not even close... offered me OBJ for Kupp, a high 1st, a low 3rd. I told him idk if I would trade Kupp for OBJ+1st much less me give a 1st. I am down on OBJ but that offense looks putrid. 

I offered him AJ Brown for OBJ. I literally have no interest in OBJ outside of how he is producing today. His new offense is not the same as the old so why value him higher based on production in an offense he is not in? 

 

Hopkins I would be very interested in. His situation has not changed like OBJs. But I was reading and agreeing elsewhere that Hopkins was a sell high prior to this season... his value will have never been higher, although I wouldn't have predicted such a decline this year- I was agreeing based on the fact that you cant get any higher than wr1 in your mid 20s for value. 

so I'm surprised Hopkins is getting that treatment, but wouldnt be surprised if it was OBJ

[Gally 4,104]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Not Hopkins but the OBJ owner has been desperately trying to move him to me. Not even close... offered me OBJ for Kupp, a high 1st, a low 3rd. I told him idk if I would trade Kupp for OBJ+1st much less me give a 1st. I am down on OBJ but that offense looks putrid. 

I offered him AJ Brown for OBJ. I literally have no interest in OBJ outside of how he is producing today. His new offense is not the same as the old so why value him higher based on production in an offense he is not in? 

 

Hopkins I would be very interested in. His situation has not changed like OBJs. But I was reading and agreeing elsewhere that Hopkins was a sell high prior to this season... his value will have never been higher, although I wouldn't have predicted such a decline this year- I was agreeing based on the fact that you cant get any higher than wr1 in your mid 20s for value. 

so I'm surprised Hopkins is getting that treatment, but wouldnt be surprised if it was OBJ

I completely agree about OBJ because he is in a completely different situation that seems like a dumpster fire.  However, Hopkins hasn't changed anything.  A couple down weeks but I see no reason he should be devalued to the point he couldn't be traded for near full value. 

[voiceofunreason 1,001]

12 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

What's your take on the appropriate discount?  I think he's lost a lot of value and I'm not sure I see that turning around anytime soon and he probably hasn't bottomed out yet.  I also don't want to get beat to the punch by another owner though :).

I traded Olsen and Waller 2 weeks ago. At the time I thought it was a great deal. I’m still good with it on my rebuild but I’m starting to wonder if it wasn’t an overpay. 

[FreeBaGeL 8,519]

6 hours ago, Gally said:

I completely agree about OBJ because he is in a completely different situation that seems like a dumpster fire.  However, Hopkins hasn't changed anything.  A couple down weeks but I see no reason he should be devalued to the point he couldn't be traded for near full value. 

I think the thing that has changed for Hopkins is that the other WRs are finally healthy at the same time and the ball is getting spread around more.

Of course the thing with either of these guys is they could go for 9-190-3 next week and come close to resetting their value.

[neal cassady 199]

12 team .5 PPR full IDP league (start 2 dls, 2-3 lbs, 2-3 dbs).  Have been offered terry mcLaurin for shaq Thompson.  My team is a complete rebuild, as the previous owner was not good.  After wheeling and dealing I have a wr core of: Chris Godwin, AJ Brown, Brandin Cooks, Arcega-Whiteside, Boykin, Preston Williams, Isabella and Marvin Jones.  My linebackers are okay without shaq.  What’s the outlook for McLaurin compared to what I’ve got?  I feel with him, Godwin, cooks and Brown, (not to mention the other rookies), I’ve got a solid foundation.  He looks good to me.  Thanks 

Edited October 10, 2019 by neal cassady

[Andy Dufresne 11,060]

37 minutes ago, neal cassady said:

12 team .5 PPR full IDP league (start 2 dls, 2-3 lbs, 2-3 dbs).  Have been offered terry mcLaurin for shaq Thompson.  My team is a complete rebuild, as the previous owner was not good.  After wheeling and dealing I have a wr core of: Chris Godwin, AJ Brown, Brandin Cooks, Arcega-Whiteside, Boykin, Preston Williams, Isabella and Marvin Jones.  My linebackers are okay without shaq.  What’s the outlook for McLaurin compared to what I’ve got?  I feel with him, Godwin, cooks and Brown, (not to mention the other rookies), I’ve got a solid foundation.  He looks good to me.  Thanks 

You take that and run. Regardless of how he fits in with the WRs you're getting more than you're giving up - do that every time.

 

[Mister CIA 7,958]

12 team, 24-man rosters:  I own David Johnson.  Just traded Duke Johnson and Demarcus Robinson for Chase Edmunds.

I'm stacked at WR and  it's unlikely Robinson would ever get to start.  It feels good to free up a roster slot too;  I tend to overvalue players on my roster, which prevents me from taking more shots at guys on the waiver wire, so freeing up an extra spot feels kind of good.

[EBF 1,913]

Good deal for Chase. Two JAGs for a guy who has looked pretty good in spot duty.

[Zyphros 1,813]

If you were a middle of the road team, not much of a chance at playoffs due to some injuries, would you consider your OBJ for Godwin?  Personally I think Godwin has made a great case for top5 dynasty WR consideration by now.  Is it worth it to go 3 years younger and get Godwin on what seems to be a better offense, although with long term questions.  

[Dawg Pound 69 72]

1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

If you were a middle of the road team, not much of a chance at playoffs due to some injuries, would you consider your OBJ for Godwin?  Personally I think Godwin has made a great case for top5 dynasty WR consideration by now.  Is it worth it to go 3 years younger and get Godwin on what seems to be a better offense, although with long term questions.  

Should still be able to get another piece with Godwin for OBJ. Even if it's just a pick bump, like OBJ and your 2nd for Godwin and his 1st.

[Arodin 3,083]

2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

If you were a middle of the road team, not much of a chance at playoffs due to some injuries, would you consider your OBJ for Godwin?  Personally I think Godwin has made a great case for top5 dynasty WR consideration by now.  Is it worth it to go 3 years younger and get Godwin on what seems to be a better offense, although with long term questions.  

Yes, I think this would be worth considering.

I'm becoming increasingly wary of elite WRs shelf-life, thanks to AB.  OBJ could start down that road.  Godwin is a few years away from the sort of contract likely to trigger receiver-neuroses.

[FreeBaGeL 8,519]

Honestly I would be surprised if someone is willing to give up Godwin/2nd for OBJ/1st at this point, but it never hurts to ask.

[wgoldsph 848]

5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

If you were a middle of the road team, not much of a chance at playoffs due to some injuries, would you consider your OBJ for Godwin?  Personally I think Godwin has made a great case for top5 dynasty WR consideration by now.  Is it worth it to go 3 years younger and get Godwin on what seems to be a better offense, although with long term questions.  

As a Godwin owner I don't know if I'm trading him for anything that doesn't include an early first plus a quality player.

[Just Win Baby 2,519]

On 9/25/2019 at 7:39 PM, JamboTaylor said:

T.Gurley or M.Gordon?

Neither

[Just Win Baby 2,519]

On 9/25/2019 at 9:32 PM, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... . Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.

[ConnSKINS26 5,443]

16 hours ago, Arodin said:

Yes, I think this would be worth considering.

I'm becoming increasingly wary of elite WRs shelf-life, thanks to AB.  OBJ could start down that road.  Godwin is a few years away from the sort of contract likely to trigger receiver-neuroses.

Next year will be the final year of his rookie contract, right? And this will be the first off-season he's allowed to talk contract at all (after the first three years of his rookie deal).

[FF Ninja 2,842]

8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.

If you dropped Davis and Brown was available then it sounds like this league has really shallow rosters. 

[JamboTaylor 12]

Price check on James Conner please.

Been offered Golladay. 

[RushHour 686]

9 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Price check on James Conner please.

Been offered Golladay. 

Smash accept. 

[ConnSKINS26 5,443]

39 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Price check on James Conner please.

Been offered Golladay. 

 take it an run imo. top 15 foundation WR it seems like, once you cross out the old guys who are fading out

[fruity pebbles 3,098]

8 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

D. Hopkins value check in PPR?

I think this was way too low, but got offered Ertz, Goedert & Tyrell Williams for him. TE is my weak spot, but Ty does nothing for me. He has Chark & OBJ & said he won't move them lol.

That’s an abysmal offer. 

[Zyphros 1,813]

How would you compare Miles Sanders to Melvin Gordon in terms of value?  Is Melvin still easily ahead, or does he need a prove it game to recoup the value he lost.  

Reason I ask is because there's a compete now team I offered Gordon to, tried to get Sanders and 2 2nd's.  Says he won't do it even straight up.  Seems a little crazy to me.  Maybe after a good Melvin game somewhere?  

[RushHour 686]

20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How would you compare Miles Sanders to Melvin Gordon in terms of value?  Is Melvin still easily ahead, or does he need a prove it game to recoup the value he lost.  

Reason I ask is because there's a compete now team I offered Gordon to, tried to get Sanders and 2 2nd's.  Says he won't do it even straight up.  Seems a little crazy to me.  Maybe after a good Melvin game somewhere?  

People are nuts over Sanders. I don't understand it personally. 

[DAG 238]

Piggybacking off of @Zyphros question about OBJ, how are people with rebuilding teams viewing him? If you have him, do you see him as a key piece of your rebuild (assuming, say a 2-year window on the rebuild)? Or is he a sell for a top 15-ish younger WR plus an additional piece (just as an example)? I have him on a rebuilding team that places a premium on WRs and I've had a variety of reactions to him: his best days are behind him vs. he's still a foundation-type WR1 (or something in between).

[SayWhat? 3,899]

2 minutes ago, DAG said:

Piggybacking off of @Zyphros question about OBJ, how are people with rebuilding teams viewing him? If you have him, do you see him as a key piece of your rebuild (assuming, say a 2-year window on the rebuild)? Or is he a sell for a top 15-ish younger WR plus an additional piece (just as an example)? I have him on a rebuilding team that places a premium on WRs and I've had a variety of reactions to him: his best days are behind him vs. he's still a foundation-type WR1 (or something in between).

He’s still a top 3 dynasty WR for me.  The Browns O-line is a mess, Baker has been a bit shaky, and they’ve had a rough start, but I don’t see what would lead one to believe OBJ’s best days are behind him.

[Dr. Octopus 14,304]

On 10/14/2019 at 11:33 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Honestly I would be surprised if someone is willing to give up Godwin/2nd for OBJ/1st at this point, but it never hurts to ask.

I agree it’s easy to discuss “dynasty value” here in this vacuum, but in reality this would be a move a “win now” team would make. Why would a “win now” team be interested in downgrading in actual production let alone give away a first round pick to do so. With how fickle people are in dynasty, I’d bet most wouldn’t even accept OBJ for Godwin straight up.

[DAG 238]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

With how fickle people are in dynasty, I’d bet most wouldn’t even accept OBJ for Godwin straight up.

I agree. So much of dynasty evaluation has shifted toward young/on the rise players and projections of remaining production (all valid considerations to be sure) that 26-ish year old players — at positions like WR with typically good longevity — seem considered declining assets in more trade discussions than I remember in the past.