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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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1 hour ago, tkrull said:

So QBs are devalued in typical 'start one' leagues.  How do you adjust your valuation when roster size is so large no starters are available as free agents and most of the promising backups are also rostered?  Does the value start to approach superflex levels?

Shopping for QBs due to injuries but struggling with the asking price.

No, they're still borderline "dime a dozen" as long as we're talking 1QB x 12 teams. The difference is that they're not literally free since they're not on the waiver wire. But trade value remains low because most teams have extra QBs and very few teams need them, so basic law of supply and demand applies: more teams selling than buying = buyer's market. 

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12 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

All things being equal:

Montgomery or Michel?

Michel's injury history and his lack of usage in the passing game has me avoiding Michel in most scenarios outside of a deal I can't pass up.

Montgomery I think will be a very good running back but it may take half a season for both Nagy and Montgomery (and Trubs) to figure things out.

I'd take Montgomery right now if I had to choose, but it's closer than I likely think it is.

Edited by ty247

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I am no Montgomery apologist but I would take him way way way ahead of Michel.

One guy has a coach who seems to prefer a lead back, can catch, has no notable injury history, and looks quick/elusive on the field.

The other has a coach that changes his mind on his RB daily, is a zero in the passing game, has major injury risk, and looks like a plodder on the field.

Not close for me.

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On 9/21/2019 at 8:10 PM, JamboTaylor said:

Price check on Singletary?

Worth Golladay in PPR?

Singletary I'd say he's worth a mid/early 2nd in rookie pick.  I wouldn't pay it myself honestly, but I imagine someone would.  Hell if someone was a big fan they might even pay a 1st.  I would say he's a definite sell and wouldn't want him long term.  That backfield is guaranteed to add competition in 2020, could be one of the highly sought after rookie RB's.  

Golladay is easily worth more than Singletary.  He's the #1 on that team no questions asked, the team is better all around as well.  Probably near WR15 overall I'd imagine.  

55 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am no Montgomery apologist but I would take him way way way ahead of Michel.

One guy has a coach who seems to prefer a lead back, can catch, has no notable injury history, and looks quick/elusive on the field.

The other has a coach that changes his mind on his RB daily, is a zero in the passing game, has major injury risk, and looks like a plodder on the field.

Not close for me.

Same here.  I don't particularly love Montgomery or anything but he's shown enough for me to rank him highly. 

Michel is a guy I'll never touch, and the shares I do have of him, I'm desperate to get rid of him.  He's broken 1 tackle all year.... Montgomery triples that on 1 carry.  

Montgomery I'd put somewhere around RB15, Michel just doing a quick count probably near RB30.

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13 minutes ago, DexterDew said:

price check on Ingram. Took over a rebuild and only getting offers for a 2nd + scrub. 

You should be able to get a 1st from a contender in need. If you don't have any of those in your league, then you're probably going to have to work a player-for-player or a package deal. I'd be looking to hit up owners of younger injured/underperforming players. Guys like Guice, Kerryon, Royce, Michel... and if you're looking for WRs, maybe Corey Davis or Diggs. Those are not all straight 1-to-1 trades, but they're guys you might be able to pry away for your rebuild.

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary I'd say he's worth a mid/early 2nd in rookie pick.  I wouldn't pay it myself honestly, but I imagine someone would.  Hell if someone was a big fan they might even pay a 1st.  I would say he's a definite sell and wouldn't want him long term.  That backfield is guaranteed to add competition in 2020, could be one of the highly sought after rookie RB's.  

Golladay is easily worth more than Singletary.  He's the #1 on that team no questions asked, the team is better all around as well.  Probably near WR15 overall I'd imagine.  

Singletary by the end of August was going in the back end of the first round in some drafts. He's come into the league and is nearly averaging 12.7 ypc on 10 carries to go with 5 catches in 2 games.

As an owner why would I give him up for an unknown 2nd round pick?

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18 hours ago, DexterDew said:

price check on Ingram. Took over a rebuild and only getting offers for a 2nd + scrub. 

A late first - maybe? - on paper. He’s a big short-term piece for contenders, but he’s not a sexy asset and there is a lot of hype around the 2020 class. A 2nd and an equally valuable player (2nd) might be as good as it gets in most leagues.

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18 hours ago, DexterDew said:

price check on Ingram. Took over a rebuild and only getting offers for a 2nd + scrub. 

Traded Sony Michel and a 2nd to get him yesterday.

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14 hours ago, ty247 said:

Singletary by the end of August was going in the back end of the first round in some drafts. He's come into the league and is nearly averaging 12.7 ypc on 10 carries to go with 5 catches in 2 games.

As an owner why would I give him up for an unknown 2nd round pick?

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

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18 hours ago, DexterDew said:

price check on Ingram. Took over a rebuild and only getting offers for a 2nd + scrub. 

I offered a 3rd and Ronald Jones for Ingram to an 0-3 owner that is far from a competitive team.  He told me “not even close”.  I’m not going to offer more as a RB needy team.  

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I offered a 3rd and Ronald Jones for Ingram to an 0-3 owner that is far from a competitive team.  He told me “not even close”.  I’m not going to offer more as a RB needy team.  

I guess I'd agree with him. That's pretty lowball.

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58 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

Try going through the thread you created. "Post your rookie drafts - 2019..."

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/775182-post-your-rookie-drafts-2019/page/11/

He went in the first round in a few drafts posted there late in August.

Regardless of what you think of him;

-he was a third round NFL draft pick

-had camp hype

-had preseason hype

-the team cut Shady for a number of reasons, one being Devin Singletary

-has looked the part in Buffalo and was a spark plug for them when his number got called

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

He went in between picks 7-10 in all three of my leagues :shrug:.  No way you are getting singletary for a second round pick as of today, no one is thinking the way you just posted.  He was a third round pick and has looked good in limited time.

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I offered a 3rd and Ronald Jones for Ingram to an 0-3 owner that is far from a competitive team.  He told me “not even close”.  I’m not going to offer more as a RB needy team.  

FYI that is a terrible offer

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10 minutes ago, mozzy84 said:

FYI that is a terrible offer

I’m well aware but Ingram, don’t care how productive, will never command a high price from me.  It was worth a chance to a team that shouldn’t be keeping him.  

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22 hours ago, DexterDew said:

price check on Ingram. Took over a rebuild and only getting offers for a 2nd + scrub. 

Biggest hold I've ever seen.  Give him 3 more games at least.  He's going to be a top back this year but nobody is going to pay for it yet.

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35 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Biggest hold I've ever seen.  Give him 3 more games at least.  He's going to be a top back this year but nobody is going to pay for it yet.

I don't think anyone is going to pay a high price for a guy that turns 30 this year but if someone is "going for it" then a late first is what I'd expect if I'm selling.

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1 hour ago, ty247 said:

I don't think anyone is going to pay a high price for a guy that turns 30 this year but if someone is "going for it" then a late first is what I'd expect if I'm selling.

If he continues at this rate - getting 15-20 touches and goaline work as the lead back of the ravens - then he becomes the exact kind of one year rental a "going for it" team is looking for.  Considering they're going to be giving you a late first I think you can also get a younger player with upside in the deal.

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6 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

If he continues at this rate - getting 15-20 touches and goaline work as the lead back of the ravens - then he becomes the exact kind of one year rental a "going for it" team is looking for.  Considering they're going to be giving you a late first I think you can also get a younger player with upside in the deal.

I won't argue with that. Mutually agree. 

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Gordon by a mile for me, even though I've never been a huge Gordon fan.

The Gurley situation terrifies me. You can't trust him at all.

Maybe it's a short-term thing, but it goes back to last season, so I'm not so sure.

Just feels like he's never going to be "right" again.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks.  You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more.  These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one.  Most of them don’t work out as bellcows.  Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college.  All that leads to limited production in the NFL.  

Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead.  No chance they don’t add more next year.  It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits.  He’s due for a time share at best.  

I got him at 2.09, which seemed on the late side of average at the time. Everything since then has been nothing but positive, so no idea why I’d cash out for roughly the same pick unless I was absolutely smitten with some of the 3rd-tier guys in the 2020 draft and my goal in the first place was just to roll it forward. I’d have to consider a 1, but pretty sure I’d snap reject any 2.

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1 minute ago, EthnicFury said:

I got him at 2.09, which seemed on the late side of average at the time. Everything since then has been nothing but positive, so no idea why I’d cash out for roughly the same pick unless I was absolutely smitten with some of the 3rd-tier guys in the 2020 draft and my goal in the first place was just to roll it forward. I’d have to consider a 1, but pretty sure I’d snap reject any 2.

I'm sure he has his supporters.  I am not one of them.  I'd cash out now if I owned him anywhere.  And if I were to target him in trades, I wouldn't be paying any more than a mid-late 2nd.  Feel free to hold onto him and he might become something, I'm betting against that all day long though.  

If he does more this season, his value is mid 1st rounder, and I'd say cash out again.  His dynasty value, it's due for a plummet, but it might rise in the meantime.  

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'm sure he has his supporters.  I am not one of them.  I'd cash out now if I owned him anywhere.  And if I were to target him in trades, I wouldn't be paying any more than a mid-late 2nd.  Feel free to hold onto him and he might become something, I'm betting against that all day long though.  

If he does more this season, his value is mid 1st rounder, and I'd say cash out again.  His dynasty value, it's due for a plummet, but it might rise in the meantime.  

Fair enough. And I get why some folks aren’t high on him, the measurables were straight-up bad.

But barring a situation where he fell crazy far or was traded as a throw-in, anyone holding him now paid as much or more as you’re recommending selling him for. If your point is “if you can get a 1st for him take it and run” I won’t argue with you (I think he plays way quicker than he tested, and has a chance to be the exception to the rule, but the statistics about which running backs tend to succeed say what they say and nobody ever went broke taking a profit).

I completely agree they will add a back in the off-season, but I think he has this season to overtake Gore and prove whoever they bring in next year should be a backup-level investment.

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Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Edited by Johnny B. Goode

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31 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

 

As an owner of both I’d insta-accept Davis for Thompson, barring being a top-tier contender with no other reasonable options at rb2

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9 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Biggest hold I've ever seen.  Give him 3 more games at least.  He's going to be a top back this year but nobody is going to pay for it yet.

The Ingram case is a weird one.

A year and a half ago Shady McCoy was older than Ingram is now and wasn't producing half as much, and people couldn't wait to brag that they got him for just a 1st as everyone patted them on the back for making such a great trade.

Yet here is Ingram.  Younger than Shady was, producing like a top 5 RB (as Shady wasn't), on a great offense (again, as Shady was not), with less wear and tear on his body and no signs of slowing down and you can't even get a 1st for him in most leagues.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I’m well aware but Ingram, don’t care how productive, will never command a high price from me.  It was worth a chance to a team that shouldn’t be keeping him.  

The classic I want your guy but he sucks approach. These are the best!

Edit - And you shouldn't value him highly because your team sucks. He's worthless! The double zinger at work here. 

Edited by dipandglide
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39 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

The Ingram case is a weird one.

A year and a half ago Shady McCoy was older than Ingram is now and wasn't producing half as much, and people couldn't wait to brag that they got him for just a 1st as everyone patted them on the back for making such a great trade.

Yet here is Ingram.  Younger than Shady was, producing like a top 5 RB (as Shady wasn't), on a great offense (again, as Shady was not), with less wear and tear on his body and no signs of slowing down and you can't even get a 1st for him in most leagues.

He's got WAY less miles on his body too. He's a nice piece if you can snag him for a late 1st or worse. 

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16 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I offered a 3rd and Ronald Jones for Ingram to an 0-3 owner that is far from a competitive team.  He told me “not even close”.  I’m not going to offer more as a RB needy team.  

My guess is you'll stay RB needy. 

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5 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Davis just went s/u for Callaway to a Browns Homer in my league. 

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3 hours ago, dipandglide said:

The classic I want your guy but he sucks approach. These are the best!

Edit - And you shouldn't value him highly because your team sucks. He's worthless! The double zinger at work here. 

The only move that beats this one is...

"Listen to all the reasons why this guy I'm desperately trying to trade is actually awesome."

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7 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

Wow.  I thought his value was much higher.  I just asked in the davis for a dynasty value before I saw this, but if it is that low, I may be a buyer in leagues I can afford to hold. 

That offense just isnt the right one for him. I think the guy still has plenty of NFL talent. 

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What are you doing with Ekeler? - anybody selling or buying?

I don't own him but will be looking to buy. I'm hoping to be able to land him with a late 1st, but expect his value to be all over the place.

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21 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you doing with Ekeler? - anybody selling or buying?

I don't own him but will be looking to buy. I'm hoping to be able to land him with a late 1st, but expect his value to be all over the place.

a HOLD for me in the only Dynasty league where I own both him and Gordon. If Gordon moves on next year, I hope to have 2 starting RBs.

 

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I’m considering making a move for Ingram in my only dynasty team, as it’s looking like I might contend and could only be one good starter away from having a real go at it, so it’s good to gauge what you are all thinking from the opposite perspective. Thanks for that. I also own Gus Edwards which is some extra insurance. Will report back if I get the trade done 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you doing with Ekeler? - anybody selling or buying?

I don't own him but will be looking to buy. I'm hoping to be able to land him with a late 1st, but expect his value to be all over the place.

I suspect you are right that his value will be all over the place, but a late 1st should be enough. He was RB25 last year (coincidentally both RB25 for the season and RB25 points per game). I like the Ekeler/Jackson combo they've got going, but I'm not confident they'll go into 2020 with that combo if they let Gordon walk in the offseason and I don't think Ekeler's owners should be confident in that, either. So with all the hype around the 2020 class, I think you should be able to strike a deal with a late 1st. But the owner might expect him to be a starter in 2020 in which case you'll be out of luck.

(FWIW, I own zero Ekeler dynasty shares)

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Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

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6 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

Wait, you were offered Tyreek for Kerryon and Landry and you haven’t accepted?  You’re trying to get a1st added?  SayWhat?  I hope he pulls the offer.

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On 9/26/2019 at 2:12 AM, EBF said:

The only move that beats this one is...

"Listen to all the reasons why this guy I'm desperately trying to trade is actually awesome."

I'd laugh, but I actually do that, so...

:hey:

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37 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

That is an easy sell.  I've been offering up similar deals like this with my Kerryon/ARob package to try and get a high tier player and no one is really interested.

Kerryon is an interesting case, the slow start from an efficiency standpoint is hurting him.  All along everyone was worried about him not getting a big workload but now they've cut his only reliable backup and are giving him a huge share of the work (20 and 26 carries the last 2 weeks) and if anything his value seems to have dropped some.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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42 minutes ago, jm192 said:

Kerryon?

I like him, but I feel like it’s a great chance to sell.

Got offered Tyreke Hill for Kerryon and Landry.  I like Hill more than kerryon, and I don’t have much love for Landry.

Trying to get a 2020 1st thrown in.  

Dude.

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Dude.

I figured Kerryon and Hill arent that far off. Maybe I’m way mistaken.  Do you just snap take it?

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