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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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6 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Don't think you'll find many people trading him for just a late 1st.

Conversely, I don't think you'll find many people willing to pay more than that for him.

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Price check on David Johnson & Diggs in PPR?

DJ owner told me he'd take Diggs straight up for him. Not sure if good or bad deal for me. Start 2 RBs, 3 WR & 2 flex. I'm good at WR, but nothing behind D. Henry & Fournette... I'm also a competitor now so not in rebuild mode either.

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Conversely, I don't think you'll find many people willing to pay more than that for him.

I paid a 2021 1st and 2nd for him last week. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on David Johnson & Diggs in PPR?

DJ owner told me he'd take Diggs straight up for him. Not sure if good or bad deal for me. Start 2 RBs, 3 WR & 2 flex. I'm good at WR, but nothing behind D. Henry & Fournette... I'm also a competitor now so not in rebuild mode either.

Given the ppr, the fact that you’re strong at WR, and that you’re a competitor now I like DJ. 

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In a no-cap superflex I had just 2 picks left for 2020 & 4 for 2021. It was a startup dynasty & I had to deal a lot of picks to fill out my roster due to accidentally spending 75% of my budget on 3/28 players. 

i lost Mahomes for a couple weeks (hopefully that’s all) and had BYEs coming up. Plus Brady is my QB2 & who really knows how much longer he’ll play. 

So I dealt my 2020 3rd & 4th (from another team with a bad record this year) and 2021 2nd + Larry Fitz for Derick Carr.

Carr owner had 4 QBs. Felt like a good time since TyWill is out & he wasn’t high on Carr to begin with. 

I figured he’d counter for more picks or maybe another player, but he accepted outright. 

hopefully that’ll bridge the gap until Mahomes comes back, and gives me one less headache for next year if  ready retires, assuming the Raiders stick with Carr. 

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5 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on David Johnson & Diggs in PPR?

DJ owner told me he'd take Diggs straight up for him. Not sure if good or bad deal for me. Start 2 RBs, 3 WR & 2 flex. I'm good at WR, but nothing behind D. Henry & Fournette... I'm also a competitor now so not in rebuild mode either.

They’re pretty even. With those two RBs it wouldn’t hurt to get DJ.

selling high off Diggs big game, buying now on DJ’s sprained ankle.

if you’re indeed deep at WR that’s a great trade. Not without risk as DJ seems a little fragile, but I’d probably pull the trigger. 

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I just moved Diggs for David Johnson in dynasty PPR & now the Zeke owner offered me his Zeke & Diontae Johnson for my D. Adams & DJ. I declined. Too much even for Zeke IMO

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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On 10/19/2019 at 8:36 AM, hispeedthinmint said:

I just moved Diggs for David Johnson in dynasty PPR & now the Zeke owner offered me his Zeke & Diontae Johnson for my D. Adams & DJ. I declined. Too much even for Zeke IMO

Should I have taken it? lol

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Where do people see Corey Davis? Was offered Darrell Henderson for him in ppr. Ran a twitter poll and it came back 67/33% on favor of Davis...

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Where do people see Corey Davis? Was offered Darrell Henderson for him in ppr. Ran a twitter poll and it came back 67/33% on favor of Davis...

I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.

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32 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.

As the guy who made the offer for Davis, I find myself very torn to be honest. Davis and I have such history where I bought in high in his rookie draft and held for a long, long time ... and finally punted this year. And it looked like the right decision until last week. Now I’m wondering if the problem really was Mariota or if that’s much too linear to be the actual solution. 
 

Like I said, I made that offer to @Dr. Dan and I’m still torn on it, to the point that I pulled it down to reconsider. I could’ve swayed either way. 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.

Henderson was extremely disappointing to the point where I'm considering selling where I own him while his value is still somewhat high. 

Davis' issue has been targets, where Mariota would target Walker and Humphries. Tannehill is targeting Davis and Brown, and results are much better. 

Davis' floor used to be 2 or 3 points (or a zero week 1). Now I think his floor is much improved if the targets continue to come. I am a playoff team and could probably use Davis more than Henderson, as he seems to be back to 3rd fiddle after Brown is healthy.

 

I've also always bought into the "have a strong wr group" for sustained dynasty success. RBs are so volatile and short term it doesnt make as much sense to have your absolute strength in rb. That proves to be holding true for my teams this year as I am strong at wr, hurting a bit at rb in different ways in each league, but finding great success. 

Davis has had a late break out, which calling this a breakout season is too early, but he is showing good signs when given volume. 

If he has another strong week I think its safe to say Mariota was the problem. Then hes a definite asset for me. 

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I think you could similarly argue the problem with Henderson is situation, not talent related. The Rams OL is awful. Getting pushed around by the Falcons is damning. 
 

He also has to wait for his opportunity behind Gurley who’s already missed one game with a “thigh” injury. I believe he’s passed Brown, though obviously opinions will vary there. Henderson has looked explosive when given space to run. I don’t think one game where neither Henderson or Gurley could move because of penetration through the middle is enough to write the ending to Henderson’s career. 

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41 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

As the guy who made the offer for Davis, I find myself very torn to be honest. Davis and I have such history where I bought in high in his rookie draft and held for a long, long time ... and finally punted this year. And it looked like the right decision until last week. Now I’m wondering if the problem really was Mariota or if that’s much too linear to be the actual solution. 
 

Like I said, I made that offer to @Dr. Dan and I’m still torn on it, to the point that I pulled it down to reconsider. I could’ve swayed either way. 

I agree - the next week or two will tell us a lot about Davis (and Henderson). 

What did you find disappointing, @Dr. Dan? I watched both games and thought Henderson looked solid. Last week was bad for both of the backs as the offensive line was pretty bad. But to my eye Henderson looked better than Gurley. (Granted, I’m not sure what that’s worth at this point.)

I’ll likely try buying if Henderson owners are getting impatient. 

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I am torn on Davis in the league where I have him.  I want to believe but I feel like this is one of those situations where Sunday evening we're all kicking rocks wondering why the hell we didn't finally sell high on him when there was a ray of hope like we kept telling ourselves we would.

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Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)

 

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16 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)    Not quite...….buying top 30 WR

Sutton (top 15 WR)   Not quite...….Buying top 24 WR

Godwin (top 3 WR)  Not Buying top 3......I would go top 15 WR

Kupp (top 10 WR)  A little too high.  buying Top 15 WR

McLaurin (top 15 WR)   No ……...Buying Top 30 WR

Andrews (top 5 TE)  Buying

Hooper (top 5 TE)  Buying (but think more like top 8)

Waller (top 5 TE)  Buying

Jackson (top 3 QB)  Buying

Jacobs (top 10 RB)  Not quite......Buying top 15 RB

 

 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)

 

Top15 for Chark?  No chance I'm buying that high.  Nice breakout, but I need more from that offense in general to trust a top15 guy.

Sutton same case, good breakout, he's undervalued in a lot of place, but Flacco leaves a lot to be desired

Godwin, absolutely buying him sustaining that value

Kupp, maybe?  I don't hate the idea of top10, I have him just outside (WR11) but that seems a bit questionable if teams keep showing ways to stop the Rams in general

Top15 for McLaurin is another I don't believe in.  Like the player a lot, love what I've seen, buy high now, wait a year and maybe you get something out of it when Guice and Haskins are there to improve the overall team.  How does Washington not address WR more in 2020 though?

Andrews, not buying.  He disappears too often for me to say top5 but he's close.  

Hooper, I'll buy that.  Hooper joins Kittle, Kelce, Engram, and Henry as the top5 dynasty TE's. 

Waller, not buying.  Waller just on the outside looking in.  

Jackson as a top3 QB?  I just can't force myself to buy it.  Steelers fan here, guilty.  My bias is showing.

Jacobs is a top10 RB in dynasty, for now.  2020 is when a few rookies push him down a little.  

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)

If I could legitimately get those prices, I would sell most of those players at that dynasty value you listed. 

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My Ebron ind te (2yrs)

His Eifert (1yr) plus 3rd round pick.

 

I'm at 2-5 and basically am trying to stockpile as many dart throws as possible.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

If I could legitimately get those prices, I would sell most of those players at that dynasty value you listed. 

I think those are about the prices you'd have to pay to acquire these guys right now. Top 15 sounds really high for the WRs, but take a look at the names in that range - Diggs, Thielen, Cooks, Hilton, Golladay, Lockett - I'd take Chark and Sutton over some of those guys. (I haven't done my homework yet on McLaurin.)

To answer my own question, I'd buy Godwin, Sutton, all 3 TEs, Jackson, and Jacobs at those prices.

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10 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I think those are about the prices you'd have to pay to acquire these guys right now. Top 15 sounds really high for the WRs, but take a look at the names in that range - Diggs, Thielen, Cooks, Hilton, Golladay, Lockett - I'd take Chark and Sutton over some of those guys. (I haven't done my homework yet on McLaurin.)

To answer my own question, I'd buy Godwin, Sutton, all 3 TEs, Jackson, and Jacobs at those prices.

As always, in a seller's market you'll have to pay a premium if you're trying to pry a player away from a team that wasn't shopping him, but if you were to be selling RBs to a team with extra WRs in need of RBs, I don't think you'd have to pay a top 15 WR price for Chark, McLaurin, or Sutton. But most importantly, if you were to do a startup right now, I would not expect to see those guys be taken in the top 15 of their position. 

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22 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

As always, in a seller's market you'll have to pay a premium if you're trying to pry a player away from a team that wasn't shopping him, but if you were to be selling RBs to a team with extra WRs in need of RBs, I don't think you'd have to pay a top 15 WR price for Chark, McLaurin, or Sutton. But most importantly, if you were to do a startup right now, I would not expect to see those guys be taken in the top 15 of their position. 

Chark and Sutton will be going well before WR15 in off-season startup drafts if their current production holds. It's certainly reasonable to bet against that happening, but that startups aren't taking place right now is kind of the point of the exercise. In general, if you're buying these guys right now it's because you're sold and are paying accordingly.

Edited by Concept Coop
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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Who do you consider a top 10wr if not Godwin?

These are all guys I would want over Godwin (in no particular order)

Hopkins, Thomas, OBJ, Adams, Thielen, Hill, Julio, Cooper, Allen, JuJu, Evans, Kupp……..

 

I am not saying Godwin can't beat out any of those guys but I would rather have those other guys over him....It's a toss up for me between Godwin, JuJu, Evans, Allen, Kupp, Thielen, Cooper, Julio……...so I guess I have them all kind of in the same tier so to speak.  The other guys would be a tier above. 

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR) Want to sell but can't argue with the eyes.  Grudgingly buy expecting the floor to cave in.

Sutton (top 15 WR) Buy all in

Godwin (top 3 WR) Sell

Kupp (top 10 WR) Buy

McLaurin (top 15 WR) Torn and probably can't be unbiased with my Scarlet and Gray goggles on

Andrews (top 5 TE) Buy buy buy

Hooper (top 5 TE) Sell but not discounting him

Waller (top 5 TE) Buy

Jackson (top 3 QB) Buy all in

Jacobs (top 10 RB) Buy, situation is too good and his talent is sufficient.  I'd comp him at Curtis Martin, talented compiler that just keeps getting opportunities to compile.

 

 

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On 10/23/2019 at 6:00 PM, Concept Coop said:

Chark and Sutton will be going well before WR15 in off-season startup drafts if their current production holds

Intuitively I did not agree with this, so I took a look. First, here are the current top 15 WRs in total points (1 PPR):

  1. Thomas
  2. Godwin
  3. Diggs
  4. Kupp
  5. Cooper
  6. Chark
  7. Julio
  8. Hopkins
  9. Allen
  10. Lockett
  11. Edelman
  12. Sutton
  13. Thielen
  14. Robinson
  15. McLaurin

Here is the current top 15 in PPG (1 PPR):

  1. Godwin
  2. Thomas
  3. Kupp
  4. Cooper
  5. Hilton
  6. Jackson
  7. Chark
  8. Robinson
  9. Julio
  10. Hopkins
  11. Allen
  12. Ross
  13. Diggs
  14. Evans
  15. Lockett

Chark shows up on both of those lists, but Sutton is #20 in PPG.

That is 19 total names in those lists above. That group does not include these notable WRs, all of whom were top 15 in ADP as of 9/4/19:

  1. Adams - ADP 2
  2. Beckham - ADP 5
  3. Juju - ADP 6
  4. Hill - ADP 7
  5. Antonio Brown - ADP 8
  6. Thielen - ADP 10
  7. Cooks - ADP 15

So we have at least 26 candidates for next year's top 15 startup WRs, along with any rookies who warrant top 15 consideration. I'm not familiar with that rookie class yet, so will ignore them for now.

As of today, I expect these guys are locks for top 15 startup value next year, barring catastrophic injury and/or off field events (in no particular order):

  1. Thomas - top 2 on both lists despite Brees injury; 26 years old
  2. Godwin - top 2 on both lists despite presence of Evans and subpar QB play; 23 years old
  3. Kupp - top 4 on both lists despite presence of Cooks and Woods; 26 years old
  4. Cooper - top 5 on both lists; 25 years old
  5. Julio - top 10 on both lists; on pace for 6th straight season over 1400 receiving yards; 30 years old
  6. Hopkins - top 10 on both lists; finished top 4 in 3 of previous 4 seasons; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; 27 years old
  7. Adams - numbers currently down due to transition to new offense and injury that will not linger into future seasons; 26 years old
  8. Beckham - numbers currently down due to transition to new offense; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; expect Kitchens will be gone, creating optimism for improved offense; 26 years old
  9. Juju - only 6 games in and has played 4.5 games with QB2 Rudolph and QB3 Hodges; expect he will finish 2019 higher than his current ranking; expect Roethlisberger will return, creating optimism for improved offense; 22 (!) years old
  10. Hill - left game 1 early due to injury, skewing his numbers; his PPG in the 2 full games he has played rank him #3 right now, and that is despite Mahomes playing at less than 100% in those games and QB2 Moore playing most of 1 of them; 25 years old

I suspect that could be next year's top 10 right there. In order for Chark and Sutton to be drafted "well before" top 15, they would pretty much have to be the next 2 choices. Meaning they would have to be drafted ahead of all of these guys (in no particular order):

  1. Evans
  2. Diggs
  3. Allen
  4. Lockett
  5. Thelien
  6. Hilton
  7. Robinson
  8. All rookies
  9. All older veterans (e.g., Edelman, Green, Brown)
  10. Any other young WR who has a strong performance the rest of 2019 (e.g., Marquise Brown)

I suppose it could happen, but I'm surprised at the confidence of your claim.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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On 10/23/2019 at 5:00 PM, Concept Coop said:

Chark and Sutton will be going well before WR15 in off-season startup drafts if their current production holds. It's certainly reasonable to bet against that happening, but that startups aren't taking place right now is kind of the point of the exercise. In general, if you're buying these guys right now it's because you're sold and are paying accordingly.

agree. two under rated guys for 2020

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If Chark finishes with the 1,300/11 that he’s on pace for, he’ll go ahead of Kupp, Julio, and Adams, too. Or should. Sutton might need to pick it up just a bit.

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

If Chark finishes with the 1,300/11 that he’s on pace for, he’ll go ahead of Kupp, Julio, and Adams, too. Or should. Sutton might need to pick it up just a bit.

 

Adams seems like the type of guy who will hang onto a high ranking despite the injury plagued year, unless the Packers do something drastic

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Adams seems like the type of guy who will hang onto a high ranking despite the injury plagued year, unless the Packers do something drastic

I don’t disagree. But those numbers at 23, coupled with the athletic profile and solid draft capital - Chark is going to be a high end dynasty asset if he can keep it up. I think plenty of owners will take Chark and the 3.5 years. I could certainly be wrong, and I do agree that Adams’ value will hold relatively steady.

Edited by Concept Coop
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Is this where the dynasty folks hang out at FBG? I'm running some startup mock drafts. If you want a spot, PM me your email. Should be something good to discuss in here. 

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Price check on Chris Carson? Start 2 RB, 1 PPR league. Took over a team that looks like it's 2 years away from being 2 years away.

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9 hours ago, Ashem said:

Price check on Chris Carson? Start 2 RB, 1 PPR league. Took over a team that looks like it's 2 years away from being 2 years away.

I made an offer 3 weeks ago on Carson... 12 Team Dynasty PPR 1/2/2/1 & 2 Flex   

Note:  Offer was made when Kamara was out and Freeman was healthy... and they needed RB2 help (their RB depth = Ballage & Hines)

Offered ATL RB D Freeman & NOS RB L Murray and a 3rd (late) for Carson  ...  rejected and no counter or feedback.  They have since lost 3 in a row.  

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38 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

what do we think about juju vs sutton/chark types rest of season? are we sure ben comes back? long term is juju a slam dunk over those types?....

Good question. All 3 arguably have long term QB questions. Even if Ben comes back next year we have to ask what life after his career is like for JuJu. I still have JuJu above Chark and Sutton but I’m guessing his value will vary widely based on how individuals in our leagues view his talent. Recency probably means you’d have to offer JuJu almost straight up for guys in the Chark/Sutton tier; at least that’s what I’d expect in my leagues. I don’t  feel comfortable selling at that price. 

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10 minutes ago, DAG said:

Good question. All 3 arguably have long term QB questions. Even if Ben comes back next year we have to ask what life after his career is like for JuJu. I still have JuJu above Chark and Sutton but I’m guessing his value will vary widely based on how individuals in our leagues view his talent. Recency probably means you’d have to offer JuJu almost straight up for guys in the Chark/Sutton tier; at least that’s what I’d expect in my leagues. I don’t  feel comfortable selling at that price. 

thanks for the response....im debating an offer in a league... seems like a no brainer.....but yet i hesitate to pull the trigger 

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2 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

what do we think about juju vs sutton/chark types rest of season? are we sure ben comes back? long term is juju a slam dunk over those types?....

Rest of season I think Chark and Sutton are clear upgrades over Juju. In terms of dynasty value, I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, but still prefer Juju. He’s younger, has proven more, and has more trade value, should I decide to move him in the near future.

I expect Ben to come back, and the Steelers to put more around Rudolph if not. I think Juju’s situation is likely to improve next season.

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Thoughts on Guice value right now in non-ppr dynasty?  Value could either jump or decline once he starts getting touches so if you wanted to sell before he hits the field what would it take? 

Edited by The Captain

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37 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Mentioned this in the carson thread but may as well ask here.

What do we think Carson's startup value is right now?

Here are some mocks done within the last week that have him at 4.3 on average.  That seems a little low to me.

http://mizelle.net/mfl/2019/

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I own Barkley and pretty much vowed to never trade him.

But, the Kamara owner is sniffing around and he owns 4 first round picks next year, three of them will be mid-late and one will be early-mid.

What's the consensus on Barkley's value at this point. I cant believe that I would find myself turning down Kamara and two 2020 firsts, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger there.

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2 hours ago, The Captain said:

Thoughts on Guice value right now in non-ppr dynasty?  Value could either jump or decline once he starts getting touches so if you wanted to sell before he hits the field what would it take? 

Guice (IMO) short term is not going to help any competitive team this year... Wash Offense is not firing on the right cylinders.... 

Long Term - I think they can repair things to for him to be a valuable RB2 but the Off/OL limitations cap his value.  

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

I own Barkley and pretty much vowed to never trade him.

But, the Kamara owner is sniffing around and he owns 4 first round picks next year, three of them will be mid-late and one will be early-mid.

What's the consensus on Barkley's value at this point. I cant believe that I would find myself turning down Kamara and two 2020 firsts, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger there.

Ask for another 1st, but I'd have no problem accepting Kamara and 2 2020 1sts.

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7 minutes ago, tkrull said:

Ask for another 1st, but I'd have no problem accepting Kamara and 2 2020 1sts.

There's been no offer yet, just some chatting back and forth. I'm really struggling with this one.

Thanks for your thoughts.

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Can't see any Kamara owner adding a pair of 1sts to "upgrade" to Saquon.  They shouldn't be that far apart.

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