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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Boston
Footballguy
A late second? Boyd is not a stud but he is 25 years old and here is what he has done the last two years:
76-1025-7
90-1046-5
Also, we now need to add in that his QB situation has a chance to dramatically improve...what do you think the odds are you will do better then that with a late second? Before it comes up I am not worried about Higgins because on the flip-side Green's days are probably coming to an end with Cincy pretty soon...Boyd is a very solid WR and is a nice addition to any roster that is looking to win a championship.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Preferring any of the receivers in this class over Sutton is loopy to me. This is the first time I've seen multiple people value Sutton so low. I don't know what more he could have done last year to justify his ascent to a top ten receiver and now that offense looks like it could be explosive.
Devil_Dog
Footballguy
I can't answer for anyone else but personally I'm lower on Sutton than most. 1) Jeudy is better than Sutton (IMO), 2) they now have Gordon and Fant to steal away targets, and 3) Denver's offense is just meh - maybe it's Lock not sure.
So in the end I see him as the #2 WR with plenty of viable options to steal targets and with a QB that isn't anything special.
Of course this is my take so I don't expect to convince others and I respect people who see it the other way
My 2 cents.
-DD
Apple Juice
Footballguy
Fair enough. I suppose the non-starter is that you view Jeudy as better than Sutton. He may well be, but rolling the dice on any rookie who hasn't played yet versus a proven talent who has steadily gotten better seems unnecessarily risky.
Regarding the Denver offense, I think the only thing that held Sutton back was an utter lack of talent around him. There were no credible receivers on the field with him other than a rookie TE who was finding his way. Obviously Denver felt the same way which is why they brought in so many weapons. My money is on the established stud receiver who has a couple years under belt already being the most productive fantasy producer on that offense by a wide margin.
Boston
Footballguy
Agree with this train of thought...if you are looking to add a RB I can see the logic for dealing Sutton...but if you are looking to get a WR what are the odds that the one you drafted will have 72-1,112-6 in their second year...why risk that especially if it's not for a WR that is drafted with a top 10 pick...even if the rookie hits they would have to put up substantially better numbers then Sutton for this risk to really be worth it...just don't see the need to do that, no need to get greedy here.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's certainly possible that things work out this way but there are a lot of assumptions being made here in the direction that only hurt Sutton. IE every player that would hurt Sutton works out (Gordon, Fant, Jeudy) while the one player that would help him (Lock) doesn't.
Maybe Fant and/or Jeudy end up being one of the thousands of young players that never become target hogging studs, or maybe it takes them years to get there. Maybe Gordon's receptions were just a product of the offense he was in rather than him being so good at it he demands targets (I actually think this is the most likely scenario for him). Or maybe Lock ends up being good enough to support a bunch of guys. Maybe he becomes that good and Jeudy doesn't work out and Sutton gets the best of both worlds.
There are lots of scenarios for how this Denver offense could work out and the scenario you laid out is basically the worst possible scenario for him. Again, it's possible, but it's a leap to assume that one particular scenario is going to be the one that hits.
EBF
Footballguy
The best WRs from this draft are going to turn out a little better than Boyd, but the misses are going to turn out much worse. Boyd isn't a true WR1 and is really just a depth guy for FF purposes, so there's definitely a modest ceiling there. We may have already seen the best seasons of his career. However, he's a solid second option who has already proven that he can be a 1000 yard guy in the NFL (twice) in the right circumstances. That's more than most of these rookies will ever achieve.
If you have a stacked roster and you want to swing for the fences then it would make some sense to favor the pick, but Boyd's projected remaining career will probably trounce the average yield from the WRs picked between 5-15 in rookie drafts when we look back on their careers as an aggregate. There are inevitably going to be some Sterling Shepard, Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, and Dante Pettis career arcs in there because there always are.
If you have a stacked roster and you want to swing for the fences then it would make some sense to favor the pick, but Boyd's projected remaining career will probably trounce the average yield from the WRs picked between 5-15 in rookie drafts when we look back on their careers as an aggregate. There are inevitably going to be some Sterling Shepard, Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, and Dante Pettis career arcs in there because there always are.
Teams that win championships don’t have plug and forget starters going 65/900/5.
But if a grade of B is what Boyd is, he’s better than the average rookie, who turns into C+. The downside is there’s no chance of an A+
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not for me. Those guys are everywhere. I would only start Boyd if I had to. He did well mind you and I'm not even knocking him, but the teams winning ships with him are teams that are using him as a 4th WR. Or are simply dominant everywhere else.
But for me that was before they drafted Higgins. Now Boyd is even lower. He may have some value, but it's quickly fading.
I would absolutely take the upside of a rookie WR in this draft right now. Probably all the way down to about Claypool who is going 3rd round of rookie drafts. Higgins is going mid 2nd in many.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
This isn’t entirely true. In my dynasty league, we start a total of 7 players between rb and wr. I finished third last year and by the end of the year Breshad Perriman and Jonnu Smith were in my lineup every week. Guys get hurt, or just simply get replaced. Having a 900 yard WR when you’re starting that many players a week can make a huge difference.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Wow I think people really need to go back and look at the last 10 years of 1st/2nd round NFL WR picks. These guys hit at what, a 20% rate? 15%? It's a miserable number. I'd be pretty surprised if more than 2 of these guys ever do more than what Boyd has done.
Also the notion that his upside is some 900/5 type low WR2 guy is kind of silly. The dude just put up a nice season on one of the worst offenses in the league and they added a stud QB prospect and revamped the O-line. What happens to Boyd if this Bengals offense actually ends up being good? Oh no, Higgins is there. Higgins and his 15% chance of actually developing into a usable NFL player, and even in that worst case scenario who's to say that Burrow doesn't end up being good enough to support two good fantasy targets.
Half of this past season's WR1 scoring players were guys that people once said had an upside as a boring WR2, and most of them had a lot less convincing reasons on why they may ascend to WR1 scoring than adding a QB that just put together by far the greatest college football season of all-time.
This all becomes doubly true once we get past Jeudy and Lamb. How many of Pittman, Higgins, Jefferson, Reagor, Aiyuk, Mims will ever put up a season better than 90-1100-5? I would be pretty surprised if the answer ends up being more than 1. I think zero is a more likely answer than 2+.
Also the notion that his upside is some 900/5 type low WR2 guy is kind of silly. The dude just put up a nice season on one of the worst offenses in the league and they added a stud QB prospect and revamped the O-line. What happens to Boyd if this Bengals offense actually ends up being good? Oh no, Higgins is there. Higgins and his 15% chance of actually developing into a usable NFL player, and even in that worst case scenario who's to say that Burrow doesn't end up being good enough to support two good fantasy targets.
Half of this past season's WR1 scoring players were guys that people once said had an upside as a boring WR2, and most of them had a lot less convincing reasons on why they may ascend to WR1 scoring than adding a QB that just put together by far the greatest college football season of all-time.
This all becomes doubly true once we get past Jeudy and Lamb. How many of Pittman, Higgins, Jefferson, Reagor, Aiyuk, Mims will ever put up a season better than 90-1100-5? I would be pretty surprised if the answer ends up being more than 1. I think zero is a more likely answer than 2+.
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EBF
Footballguy
Hit rate on 1st round NFL draft picks is about 40-50% IIRC, but there are different levels of hit. Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd are 1,000 yard NFL WRs, but were they hits? Not really. If you raise your standards, the hit rate drops. Then again, Boyd is merely a solid double, and not a home run ala Julio, Fitzgerald, Dez, etc.
As for Higgins, he's obviously the like-for-like replacement for AJ Green, and not for Boyd. Very little overlap between his skill set and Boyd's. FWIW I think Higgins busts, but that's just my take. BTW I own Boyd in exactly zero dynasty leagues. Never been a big fan. Would still comfortably take him over any day two WR in this draft.
I think he's worth more than a late 1st, but if you pick the right player from Aiyuk/Ruggs/Reagor you could end up getting a bigger payout, so I guess I see both sides of the debate. League setup and roster composition may be the deciding factor. In deep leagues where his numbers will carry a lot of value, I'd probably take the bird in hand. For stacked teams or shallow leagues where upside is a bigger consideration, maybe you go with one of the high-ceiling rooks.
As for Higgins, he's obviously the like-for-like replacement for AJ Green, and not for Boyd. Very little overlap between his skill set and Boyd's. FWIW I think Higgins busts, but that's just my take. BTW I own Boyd in exactly zero dynasty leagues. Never been a big fan. Would still comfortably take him over any day two WR in this draft.
I think he's worth more than a late 1st, but if you pick the right player from Aiyuk/Ruggs/Reagor you could end up getting a bigger payout, so I guess I see both sides of the debate. League setup and roster composition may be the deciding factor. In deep leagues where his numbers will carry a lot of value, I'd probably take the bird in hand. For stacked teams or shallow leagues where upside is a bigger consideration, maybe you go with one of the high-ceiling rooks.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
How shallow are your leagues where you can start top players at every position group? If 6/900/5 is riding your bench at wr then you're weak at another position.
^This 100%.
rockaction
Footballguy
Boyd is worth more than a late first. I'm the Boyd GM and I wouldn't give him for less than 1.09. But that puts too fine a point on it. Most guys are offering less than that, so you'll have to make up your mind.
Sutton is a mid-first, even with Jeudy and Hamler.
N'Keal Harry I value different than everybody else, so I'll be quiet and let time tell on that.
Sutton is a mid-first, even with Jeudy and Hamler.
N'Keal Harry I value different than everybody else, so I'll be quiet and let time tell on that.
ZWK
Footballguy
I think I'd rank Sutton 3rd in this draft class, Boyd about 13th, and Harry about 22nd. And since the draft order doesn't exactly match my rankings, I'd give a later pick than that for the vets. I definitely wouldn't trade a pick for Boyd until Aiyuk has been taken, and I wouldn't trade a pick for Harry until Claypool & Gibson are gone.
Here are some historical comparisons for Boyd, based on production at ages 24-25.
Here are some historical comparisons for Boyd, based on production at ages 24-25.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Even jeudy and lamb are no sure thing- we all thought treadwell and trich were dynasty builders as well. That said, I think 3 of that list will hit that. It’s not that I like any of the 3 specifically, I just think each of these situations pair players who appear to have the tools to succeed with young qbs that can potentially produce a 1000 yd wr, or in pittmans case a vet and possible wr1 target share going forward or if Hilton misses time.
Lets take a look back quick at the other wr class this one is compared to, the 2014 draft class. This class is littered with wrs in particular that got at least one season of these #s like kelvin benjamin or brandin cooks type production. It isn’t unheard of that several of these wrs have solid seasons, but sustained success is fleeting. I don’t disagree with swinging for more upside than Boyd. I think I take Sutton over the other wrs in this class though. As for Harry, he was probably drafted in the top 5 last year, so if you can get him for a 2nd that seems like having pot odds in poker, you’re priced in so take the chance. He also should be the wr1 for a young qb.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I didn't on Treadwell, but I was fooled on Richardson. As for Richardson and a lot of others, you never know what's between the ears. As for Treadwell, I suspected he was a bust. The red flags on him were a lot more evident.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In a current rebuild in one league and wondered what your thoughts were on Russell Wilson's pick value is for 2021? PPR, start 1 QB. However, QBs only score 4 points per TD 1 pt every 20 yards passing.
His numbers are right up there at the top and he's only 31. He ranked 4th in my league in QB scoring.
What is his dynasty value today? What pick should I expect in trading him?
His numbers are right up there at the top and he's only 31. He ranked 4th in my league in QB scoring.
What is his dynasty value today? What pick should I expect in trading him?
I’d say early-mid 2nd range. Pretty tough to get anyone to pay a 1st in a one QB league, and I suspect Burrow range is appropriate (contender that’s QB thin may prefer Wilson, rebuilder or someone set at QB would prefer Burrow).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would say anyone that's in a win now situation would be getting a steal in Wilson for a 2nd rd pick. The catch 22 for the rebuilding team is that if only win now teams want him, the 2nd rd pick is going to be late, unless that team also has a worse team's 2nd rd pick. As a rebuilding team no way would I want to sell Wilson for a late 2nd rd pick in 2021. Probably better to hold on to him and trade to a desperate team next season should the injury bug strike their QB.
I was talking this year’s rookie picks. Agreed, I would not sell Wilson for a likely late 2021 2nd. Missed the 2021 part of your post. Yeah, you’re stuck I think. Contenders in all likelihood aren’t giving a 1st, and rebuilders aren’t giving an early 2nd. You’ll likely need some to make some sort of package deal. But if peg his value as early 2nd range.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Superflex no-cap dynasty.
What would you command for Derick Carr in either draft equity or player?
on the fence about selling, as then I’d only have Daniel Jones & Mahomes (with no backup) but I’ve got someone sniffing around.
Win-now team, so kinda feeling like he’s worth more to me for BYE coverage than whatever I could get for him in trade.
plus dude came at me with “looking for the cheapest QB possible for depth” which always rubs me the wrong way. Like telegraphing the lowball offer.
What would you command for Derick Carr in either draft equity or player?
on the fence about selling, as then I’d only have Daniel Jones & Mahomes (with no backup) but I’ve got someone sniffing around.
Win-now team, so kinda feeling like he’s worth more to me for BYE coverage than whatever I could get for him in trade.
plus dude came at me with “looking for the cheapest QB possible for depth” which always rubs me the wrong way. Like telegraphing the lowball offer.
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foxco
Footballguy
For David Carr I'd take whatever I could get as he's been gone for years, but for Derek Carr I'd be asking for a mid 1st in SF or a solid WR. Maybe a late 1st if you have needs at WR.
EBF
Footballguy
Some startup values that I like based on these rankings:
123 - WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
126 - QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
127 - RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings
142 - TE OJ Howard, Bucs
155 - RB Damien Harris, Patriots
163 - RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals
166 - TE Hayden Hurst, Falcons
184 - TE Dawson Knox, Bills
201 - WR Devin Duvernay, Ravens
236 - TE Devin Asiasi, Patriots
281 - TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos
Obviously you have to factor in the low positional value for TEs, but there sure are some compelling names available late. You could even throw Ebron and Njoku into the discussion. Ebron may be the second best receiving weapon on the Steelers next season and while I get that he's a chronic tease, he's had decent seasons before. It never happened for Hurst in Baltimore because of injuries and Andrews, but this fresh start in ATL might be just what he needs. I've always liked the talent. Knox was an interesting draft prospect who flashed as a rookie.
The Mattison/Harris/Edmonds cluster is an interesting group of backup/RBBC types who may or may not have lead back talent. I've been burned in the past by similar players such as Christine Michael, Bryce Brown, and Bernard Pierce who never got the opportunity or couldn't seize it when it finally came. I still like the risk/reward of this trio outside the first 10 rounds of 12 team leagues. It's the type of pick that, if it hits, can really change your team.
If you can pick the right guy from the day two rookie WRs (i.e. Higgins, Pittman, Mims, Shenault, Hamler, Claypool, Duvernay), you've got a tremendous start-up value on your hands. I'll lump Aiyuk into that group as well since excitement for him seems to be lagging far behind the likes of Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs even though he was also a first round pick. I think of this group I'd be going with Aiyuk, Shenault, and Duvernay, but that's personal preference. Generically, they all offer decent upside at a cost that won't kill your team if they miss.
The league's talent pool looks pretty deep right now and I think you're going to have compelling options throughout the first 40-50 picks of a startup draft before things start to thin out a bit.
123 - WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
126 - QB Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
127 - RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings
142 - TE OJ Howard, Bucs
155 - RB Damien Harris, Patriots
163 - RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals
166 - TE Hayden Hurst, Falcons
184 - TE Dawson Knox, Bills
201 - WR Devin Duvernay, Ravens
236 - TE Devin Asiasi, Patriots
281 - TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos
Obviously you have to factor in the low positional value for TEs, but there sure are some compelling names available late. You could even throw Ebron and Njoku into the discussion. Ebron may be the second best receiving weapon on the Steelers next season and while I get that he's a chronic tease, he's had decent seasons before. It never happened for Hurst in Baltimore because of injuries and Andrews, but this fresh start in ATL might be just what he needs. I've always liked the talent. Knox was an interesting draft prospect who flashed as a rookie.
The Mattison/Harris/Edmonds cluster is an interesting group of backup/RBBC types who may or may not have lead back talent. I've been burned in the past by similar players such as Christine Michael, Bryce Brown, and Bernard Pierce who never got the opportunity or couldn't seize it when it finally came. I still like the risk/reward of this trio outside the first 10 rounds of 12 team leagues. It's the type of pick that, if it hits, can really change your team.
If you can pick the right guy from the day two rookie WRs (i.e. Higgins, Pittman, Mims, Shenault, Hamler, Claypool, Duvernay), you've got a tremendous start-up value on your hands. I'll lump Aiyuk into that group as well since excitement for him seems to be lagging far behind the likes of Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs even though he was also a first round pick. I think of this group I'd be going with Aiyuk, Shenault, and Duvernay, but that's personal preference. Generically, they all offer decent upside at a cost that won't kill your team if they miss.
The league's talent pool looks pretty deep right now and I think you're going to have compelling options throughout the first 40-50 picks of a startup draft before things start to thin out a bit.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Country Boy
Footballguy
This rookie draft is intriguing from the quantity vs quality aspect. There appears to be real depth in this draft so is it to your advantage to have multiple picks or do you package some of those picks to move up to get a higher rated prospect? Example: I have the following picks: 1.02, 1.08, 1.14 (Mine, I won the league!), and 2.01
I look at 1.02 as a little bit of a no brainer. Draft who is there between CEH and Taylor.
The options start after 1.02. I think the top 6 players are on a different Tier and then the next Tier starts at 8. Option A: Move up to 5 or 6 and then you can land Dobbins, Jeudy, Lamb or Swift. Option B: Best available at 8 and then pick twice at 14 and 15. Mims, Higgins, Aiyuk, Pittman Jr.
Our league has roster size limits so you can't just acquire picks and stash. It will probably come down to if I can make a good valued trade
I look at 1.02 as a little bit of a no brainer. Draft who is there between CEH and Taylor.
The options start after 1.02. I think the top 6 players are on a different Tier and then the next Tier starts at 8. Option A: Move up to 5 or 6 and then you can land Dobbins, Jeudy, Lamb or Swift. Option B: Best available at 8 and then pick twice at 14 and 15. Mims, Higgins, Aiyuk, Pittman Jr.
Our league has roster size limits so you can't just acquire picks and stash. It will probably come down to if I can make a good valued trade
Country Boy
Footballguy
I'm really in pretty good shape roster wise so I'm going to be able to take the best available. I really like the Tier approach to drafting in general and this draft appears to have some Tiers. Tier 3 - #7 through # 10 and Tier 4 - # 11 through # 14. The other wildcard is we will have one team draft Burrow in Round 1, book it. And I think Tua will go late 1 or early 2. Who do you like at #3 behind CEH and Taylor? Our is a .5 PPR so I would lean Dobbins.
Milkman
Footballguy
Just stay there bro. 14th and 15th pick in this draft is the sweet spot. I get my top two WR in this draft right there.
Country Boy
Footballguy
2 posts, 2 contrasting opinions. That's what makes this rookie draft interesting. Not sure there is a bad way to go, but the thought of coming away with 2 of the top 3 would be enticing.
EBF
Footballguy
If I had a top 2 pick, I would stay put.
I think there are some very decent arguments for trading down if your pick is in the 3-8 range, especially if you are planning on taking a WR. Players like Ruggs and Aiyuk who were highly-vetted by the NFL draft process are often slipping down into the 10-12 range behind JAG-y RBs and lower-rated WRs. Is there really a value gap there or just a perceived gap? If you have a guy you love like Lamb or Jefferson and you're 100% sold then I can see an argument for staying put, but generically the WR draft feels pretty flat to me. Maybe the guy you get at #10 or 12 outproduces Lamb and Jeudy. It feels like we're splitting hairs.
Also, while I don't have a lot of can't-miss favorites in that range, the 12-24 range of this draft is loaded with day two WR/RB talent and first round QB prospects who seemingly have a pulse, so if you can hop down from something like pick 4 to pick 10 and grab an extra mid 2nd, it feels like you're probably winning the deal considering that you're still going to be able to pick up a first round WR talent and then you'll be able to add another quality prospect on top of that.
The raw odds say there are probably a couple Jordy Nelson/Eric Decker/Tyler Boyd/DeSean Jackson type of hits hiding in the 2nd-3rd round WR cluster, so grabbing an extra lottery ticket is something to consider.
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
wgoldsph
Footballguy
I know, that's why I want him. Just a matter of what's the appropriate amount to send in a trade.
EBF
Footballguy
Gotta be CEH. First RB drafted, solid film, and lands in a prolific Andy Reid offense.
Just seems like a no-brainer pick.
He's not Barkley from a talent standpoint, but he can be Josh Jacobs in a KC offense.
My answer is assuming that your QB scoring is neither godlike nor nerfed, but rather average.
I would think a high and a middle rookie 1st round pick would get it done. Or a high rookie pick and an aging/dwindling stud
Country Boy
Footballguy
No question I stay put at 2 unless I get my hair blown back. I really believe that Jeudy and Lamb are the best WR options but you can make an argument for the rest of the first round receivers in any order. I'm a little nervous about Ruggs. Darrius Heyward Bey anyone? May let someone else draft him.
