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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Trying to move Hooper and the 1.03 to a TE needy team in 16 team league. Targeting Godwin and wondering what I’ll need to add to the deal. My other option is the package Guice and 1.03 for Kamara but also think I may need a small add on. I just want a few reliable pieces and going 2+ for 1 is my goal. Any thoughts would be appreciated. 

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I tried to get a 2nd from just about every team in two different leagues to no avail.

Best I did was trading him for Zack Moss post-draft in a PPR.

No, he's not worth a 1st.

I would have paid a 2nd almost anywhere for him. I did get him in a couple trades this offseason but there were many other pieces involved. 

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

I would have paid a 2nd almost anywhere for him. I did get him in a couple trades this offseason but there were many other pieces involved. 

Man, those seconds sure are tempting to part with until you have none at draft time. I'm looking at 1,1,2,3,6 for next year and hating that I'm missing 4 and 5. I sacrificed them for extras this year from the same corresponding round and I miss them already. 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Man, those seconds sure are tempting to part with until you have none at draft time. I'm looking at 1,1,2,3,6 for next year and hating that I'm missing 4 and 5. I sacrificed them for extras this year from the same corresponding round and I miss them already. 

I try to use them with discretion. And I've had a lot of luck trading for more 2nds in other deals. I rarely find myself without picks.

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On 5/22/2020 at 9:00 PM, EBF said:

Here's one for you guys:

What's Ingram's rookie pick value in a PPR? We have only one mandatory RB slot, but lots of flex spots.

Dobbins fell to me at 1.05 in the rookie draft and I'd like to lock up the backfield if I can do it for cheap, but I also don't want to give up a decent pick for a 30 year old RB in what looks like a committee. I liked Ingram a lot for last year's redraft leagues, but it's a very different landscape now after the Dobbins pick and it feels like buying him now might be dumping assets for an unusable FF RB3 who gets you 8-12 ppg and makes no difference in the W-L column.

Ended up doing the #26 rookie pick and my 2021 4th round rookie pick for Ingram, which is a price I can stomach for a mediocre rental.

All the RB/WR I like were off the board, so I didn't feel like I was missing out on much.

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21 minutes ago, EBF said:

Ended up doing the #26 rookie pick and my 2021 4th round rookie pick for Ingram, which is a price I can stomach for a mediocre rental.

All the RB/WR I like were off the board, so I didn't feel like I was missing out on much.

Duvernay?

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18 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

Trying to move Hooper and the 1.03 to a TE needy team in 16 team league. Targeting Godwin and wondering what I’ll need to add to the deal. My other option is the package Guice and 1.03 for Kamara but also think I may need a small add on. I just want a few reliable pieces and going 2+ for 1 is my goal. Any thoughts would be appreciated. 

A Godwin owner would turn that down immediately. It’s short by roughly the 1.02

A Kamara owner would turn that down immediately. It’s also short by roughly the 1.02

ADP says 1.03 is right around the 20th player overall in a dynasty startup. You’re not going to get a top-8 startup player for the 1.03 and garbage (Hopper or Guice in your example)

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20 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

New to dynasty. Light on QBs in a superflex league. What is a QB worth? Like let's say a guy like Sam Darnold. Young, hasn't shown a ton but could have some potential. Any help/discussion would be great. Thank you!

How light are you on QBs? I took over an orphan in a 12 team SuperFlex last year and the other teams would look at my roster and jack up the prices on every QB I tried to acquire.

IIRC the Darnold owner asked for a 2019 1st and my 2020 1st because he was "young with lots of potential".

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26 minutes ago, lardonastick said:

Duvernay?

I took him at 18, which is probably higher than I needed to, but he was my top player left at that point.

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18 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

A Godwin owner would turn that down immediately. It’s short by roughly the 1.02

A Kamara owner would turn that down immediately. It’s also short by roughly the 1.02

ADP says 1.03 is right around the 20th player overall in a dynasty startup. You’re not going to get a top-8 startup player for the 1.03 and garbage (Hopper or Guice in your example)

Good to know. Thanks. Brand new to dynasty and I’m still figuring out the values, especially with these rookie picks. I’d add a 2021 1st to Kamara deal as it’s still short but since he’s on the block - who knows?

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

Ended up doing the #26 rookie pick and my 2021 4th round rookie pick for Ingram, which is a price I can stomach for a mediocre rental.

All the RB/WR I like were off the board, so I didn't feel like I was missing out on much.

That is good value for a guy that will plug your RB2/3 for a year or two. I don’t see Dobbins running away with the job y1. 

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16 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

How light are you on QBs? I took over an orphan in a 12 team SuperFlex last year and the other teams would look at my roster and jack up the prices on every QB I tried to acquire.

IIRC the Darnold owner asked for a 2019 1st and my 2020 1st because he was "young with lots of potential".

I have Lamar and Brees, and drafted Winston when he was still a free agent hoping he would be a starter so it kind of effed me there now that he's a backup. I don't think I need to make any drastic moves, don't need to overlay as I could get someone in a rookie draft next year or a free agent of some sort.

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9 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I have Lamar and Brees, and drafted Winston when he was still a free agent hoping he would be a starter so it kind of effed me there now that he's a backup. I don't think I need to make any drastic moves, don't need to overlay as I could get someone in a rookie draft next year or a free agent of some sort.

 

You're in a pretty good spot imo, definitely not in a place to need to make a desperation move at QB. Would a Lamar/Kyler combo be ideal? Of course, but Lamar + Brees and his current cuff isn't bad in that format. 

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13 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

I have Lamar and Brees, and drafted Winston when he was still a free agent hoping he would be a starter so it kind of effed me there now that he's a backup. I don't think I need to make any drastic moves, don't need to overlay as I could get someone in a rookie draft next year or a free agent of some sort.

Yeah your roster is in far better shape at QB than mine was. You have the luxury of making a deal that is reasonably fair for both parties and not a huge overpay for you. Winston may land a starting job for next season and then you are in good shape at QB.

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20 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Winston was just released on our first waivers... Hoping to grab him tomorrow. He can actually see now

News?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Damn.

eta* I'm tempted to try and work out a deal with the Winston owner in our league. Right now, I have Mahomes, Lock, and Newton. I'm a kneecap away from issues at QB. It's a deep league, so there is nobody that isn't rostered that starts.

Edited by rockaction

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Curious to others thoughts on this (although I am sure of my decision) I was offered Chubb or Mixon today in a 12 team PPR dynasty league for Sutton, 1.6, and Lindsay. I turned both down. Just feel like Sutton is a rising star and 1.6 is going to land a very nice player (plus I like Lindsay, I think he's a better RB than Gordon) Just curious how many others would have passed on those offers? 

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Posted (edited)

I'd have passed, thank you very much. I don't think that's in the ballpark, even.

Did you counter or at least avoid trying to give up the pick, which is really what it comes down to?

Edited by rockaction

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26 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Curious to others thoughts on this (although I am sure of my decision) I was offered Chubb or Mixon today in a 12 team PPR dynasty league for Sutton, 1.6, and Lindsay. I turned both down. Just feel like Sutton is a rising star and 1.6 is going to land a very nice player (plus I like Lindsay, I think he's a better RB than Gordon) Just curious how many others would have passed on those offers? 

It seems pretty even. I don't like Sutton this year. Drew Lock sucks. It's going to hurt Sutton. Have him throw in a mid 2nd this year and I do the deal. 

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Seems like a three quarters for a dollar type of deal.

Mixon is one of the best RBs in the league and will be a monster if they ever get their offense sorted.

Definitely the most valuable piece in that trade, so it just comes down to how much you think 1.06 and Sutton are worth.

Those are decent pieces, but Mixon could really be a cornerstone.

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38 minutes ago, EBF said:

Seems like a three quarters for a dollar type of deal.

Mixon is one of the best RBs in the league and will be a monster if they ever get their offense sorted.

Definitely the most valuable piece in that trade, so it just comes down to how much you think 1.06 and Sutton are worth.

Those are decent pieces, but Mixon could really be a cornerstone.

Yeah I agree. It's a cool trade to analyze because it is close. 

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On 5/23/2020 at 2:19 PM, joey said:

Disagreement with a guy in my league over value of Slayton WR NYG. He says future 1st. I say no way, much less. 
thoughts?

I traded Phillip Lindsay to the Melvin Gordon for him. He seems like an early 2nd to mid second to me. 

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10 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Curious to others thoughts on this (although I am sure of my decision) I was offered Chubb or Mixon today in a 12 team PPR dynasty league for Sutton, 1.6, and Lindsay. I turned both down. Just feel like Sutton is a rising star and 1.6 is going to land a very nice player (plus I like Lindsay, I think he's a better RB than Gordon) Just curious how many others would have passed on those offers? 

I might see if I could get a 2nd or 3rd thrown in there, but prefer Chubb or Mixon at the end of the day.  

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Posted (edited)

Dynasty Trade Analyzer has it at over 300 points in favor of the Sutton/1.06. That's a lot, unlike what others are saying. I'd stick with what you have.

300 points -- or scale equivalent -- on any calc is a fairly prodigious margin. As Edgar points out upthread, start as close to market value as you can. 

Edited by rockaction

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RotoUnderworld Trade Dominator has Sutton/1.06 by 33 points, which is a lot.

Like I said -- and this is my opinion only, but backed up by two separate and different calcs -- it's not a close deal. 

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On 5/16/2020 at 1:18 AM, rockaction said:

I'm never taking that deal, but I'm sold -- like you are -- on Sutton and Hunt. No way that even approaches my radar to hit accept for that. 

I don’t think anyone takes that offer unless the 2020 1st is top 2, then maybe.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

RotoUnderworld Trade Dominator has Sutton/1.06 by 33 points, which is a lot.

Like I said -- and this is my opinion only, but backed up by two separate and different calcs -- it's not a close deal. 

agree completely, thats why I would try to get a 2nd or 3rd to help the balance.  Mixon or Chubb is the prize of the trade by far, and I might be able to do it without the compensation.

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1 minute ago, Rig24 said:

agree completely, thats why I would try to get a 2nd or 3rd to help the balance.  Mixon or Chubb is the prize of the trade by far, and I might be able to do it without the compensation.

I'm not sure I was clear, then. No disrespect or terseness to you in that but I was saying that Sutton and 1.06 were valued more highly than the Chubb or Mixon side. There would have to be a two going back to the Sutton owner, really, to make it closer.

Maybe we're just crossing wires here, but I'm saying don't do that deal.

It's not something I'd stake my life on, I just know these values from having done a rookie draft, and the 1.06 is Jeudy, probably. So it's Sutton/Jeudy/Lindsay for Mixon. That's a lot to pay for a guy who is already threatening holdout or in a contract year next year like Chubb will be. 

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28 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm not sure I was clear, then. No disrespect or terseness to you in that but I was saying that Sutton and 1.06 were valued more highly than the Chubb or Mixon side. There would have to be a two going back to the Sutton owner, really, to make it closer.

Maybe we're just crossing wires here, but I'm saying don't do that deal.

It's not something I'd stake my life on, I just know these values from having done a rookie draft, and the 1.06 is Jeudy, probably. So it's Sutton/Jeudy/Lindsay for Mixon. That's a lot to pay for a guy who is already threatening holdout or in a contract year next year like Chubb will be. 

I think I was the unclear one...I agree with what you are saying there that the Chubb/Mixon side needs more added.  But also added I might do it anyways to get the better player of the deal.

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12 hours ago, rockaction said:

I'd have passed, thank you very much. I don't think that's in the ballpark, even.

Did you counter or at least avoid trying to give up the pick, which is really what it comes down to?

I told him giving up Sutton and the 1.6 was my issue, that I would give Sutton, Lindsay, a future 3rd and he said not remotely close. Unfortunately he doesn't have any picks this year. If I could get a 2nd coming back I'd probably be more open to it. 

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Seems like a good exercise in the limited usefulness of trade calculators.

FWIW via startup ADP it's 1.09 for 4.07/4.09.

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Just now, ffmail4me said:

I told him giving up Sutton and the 1.6 was my issue, that I would give Sutton, Lindsay, a future 3rd and he said not remotely close. Unfortunately he doesn't have any picks this year. If I could get a 2nd coming back I'd probably be more open to it. 

Yeah, I'm certainly not an expert, but I can also see where a future 3rd instead of 1.06 isn't close. Maybe you could meet somewhere in the middle of that. Maybe there's a second or third this year you have that could be sent. He'd probably do the deal for a second this year. 

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Seems like a good exercise in the limited usefulness of trade calculators.

FWIW via startup ADP it's 1.09 for 4.07/4.09.

Not really. Sounds like a good exercise in not getting robbed.

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Not really. Sounds like a good exercise in not getting robbed.

Those same dynasty trade calculators you are quoting say that Sutton/Jeudy/Lindsay is worth more than Saquon Barkley, which is utterly insane.  No one is giving up Saquon for that.

Trade calcs can be a fun exercise, but like mock drafts they are often way off when it comes down to people making moves that actually affect their real life teams.  This counts doubly when talking about a trade involving RBs vs WRs, the latter of which fantasy leagues are overflowing with right now.

Would you really consider giving up Saquon Barkley for Sutton/Jeudy or anything near it in an actual league?

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Those same dynasty trade calculators you are quoting say that Sutton/Jeudy is worth Saquon Barkley, which is utterly insane.  No one is giving up Saquon for that.

Trade calcs can be a fun exercise, but like mock drafts they are often way off when it comes down to people making moves that actually affect their real life teams.  This counts doubly when talking about a trade involving RBs vs WRs, the latter of which fantasy leagues are overflowing with right now.

Would you really consider giving up Saquon Barkley for Sutton/Jeudy or anything near it in an actual league?

Trade calculators is one tool and only one tool.  Certainly not something to depend on in making trades, especially in dynasty leagues.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Those same dynasty trade calculators you are quoting say that Sutton/Jeudy/Lindsay is worth more than Saquon Barkley, which is utterly insane.  No one is giving up Saquon for that.

Trade calcs can be a fun exercise, but like mock drafts they are often way off when it comes down to people making moves that actually affect their real life teams.  This counts doubly when talking about a trade involving RBs vs WRs, the latter of which fantasy leagues are overflowing with right now.

Would you really consider giving up Saquon Barkley for Sutton/Jeudy or anything near it in an actual league?

Yeah, the ones I'm using have Barkley about fifty-one hundred points ahead. Neither one is even close, though DTA is tighter. RotoUnderworld has it by a hundred points, which is huge for them. 

They're a guide to begin with.  Not the be-all end-all. I use DTA, RotoUnderworld, and DTC (now expired). DTC would assuredly have Barkley ahead, too, because I remember his value was sky high there.

Mixon or Chubb, both in contract years or soon to-be are not worth Sutton and Jeudy and Lindsay. Either one. Maybe if you play 2 RB. Maybe.

Again, this is just my opinion. I wouldn't do that deal. And I certainly wouldn't trade Barkley for them, either. Those are three entirely different players. 

Edited by rockaction

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50 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, the ones I'm using have Barkley about fifty-one hundred points ahead. Neither one is even close, though DTA is tighter. RotoUnderworld has it by a hundred points, which is huge for them. 

Even without Lindsay DTA has Sutton/Jeudy worth almost the same as Barkley (within 1%).  DTA was one of the two you quoted and now you're moving the goalposts to some other mysterious one that has Barkley "fifty-one hundred points ahead".

Regardless, the fact that there can be such a huge disparity between the calculators shows in and of itself how off they can be.  Not to mention the notion that actual responses from real players here have varied so wildly from the calculators when considering the initial trade with Mixon.

 

Quote

They're a guide to begin with.  Not the be-all end-all. I use DTA, RotoUnderworld, and DTC (now expired). DTC would assuredly have Barkley ahead, too, because I remember his value was sky high there.

Mixon or Chubb, both in contract years or soon to-be are not worth Sutton and Jeudy and Lindsay. Either one. Maybe if you play 2 RB. Maybe.

Again, this is just my opinion. I wouldn't do that deal. And I certainly wouldn't trade Barkley for them, either. Those are three entirely different players. 

Except that this all began with you quoting them as evidence that the original trade was not close, despite responses from actual real FF players being split if not slightly favoring the Mixon side.

I certainly have no problem with someone prefering the Sutton/1.06 side of the deal, but it has nothing to do with trade calculators.  It's pretty easy to go in and create trades that make those calculators results vary wildly from real life value, and the calcs having Sutton/1.06 being 50% more valuable than Mixon is certainly one of those instances.

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Posted (edited)

I don’t have a problem with anyone using trade calculators as a tool to gauge reasonableness, but anything beyond that is silly.  Even at that, this (Sutton/1.06 vs Mixon as heavily in favor of the former) is a great example of their flaws.  Mixon is likely the 1.01 in this draft class.  So what is this deal then?  Maybe 1.01 for 1.05/1.06?  1.04/1.06?  Any way you view it, it’s not heavily skewed one way or the other.  Completely personal preference on how you build your team.

Wish I knew which members of my leagues were using trade calculators (and which specific ones), as I’d then use it to craft deals that are heavily in their favor...but aren’t.  

Edited by SayWhat?
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13 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think I would lean

Mixon > Chubb > 1.06/Sutton

But it's close.

And the guy who offered me Mixon and had to have Sutton, 1.6, and Lindsay just moved him for Sterling Shepard, Hunt, and Hunter Henry. Don't you just love when another owner wants premium value from you but trades for a way less package with another team...:censored:

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43 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

 

Wish I knew which members of my leagues were using trade calculators (and which specific ones), as I’d then use it to craft deals that are heavily in their favor...but aren’t.  

Whenever  people send me one sided deals in their trade favor telling me the trade calcs show me winning  or that value is on my side to let me know what trade calc or value system they are using and if they tell me I then go and try come up with a deal like you say.

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

I don’t have a problem with anyone using trade calculators as a tool to gauge reasonableness, but anything beyond that is silly.  Even at that, this (Sutton/1.06 vs Mixon as heavily in favor of the former) is a great example of their flaws.  Mixon is likely the 1.01 in this draft class.  So what is this deal then?  Maybe 1.01 for 1.05/1.06?  1.04/1.06? 

Small nitpick here: The #1 pick is the highest possible pick in the rookie draft, so you could say "If Barkley were in this class then he'd be the 1.01 pick", but...Barkley is worth a lot more than the 1.01 pick, so Barkley does not = the #1 pick. Likewise, Mixon is worth a little bit more than Clyde to me, so I would say there's no pick in this rookie draft quite equivalent to Mixon in value. If I were dealing Mixon for Clyde, I'd need something else thrown in there. Maybe a 2nd rounder of some sort. So it might be more accurate to say Mixon is 1.01 & 2.06 or something along those lines.

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1 hour ago, Dr. BD said:

I think it kind of defeats the purpose of using a calculator if you “calculator shop” a deal on multiple calculators to come up one that shows it’s a good trade. Either you believe a calculators values or you don’t.

I think different calcs have different weights and you adjust accordingly. That's just me. If you know why the calc is showing what it's showing, that makes it all that much more a useful tool. 

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38 minutes ago, EBF said:

Small nitpick here: The #1 pick is the highest possible pick in the rookie draft, so you could say "If Barkley were in this class then he'd be the 1.01 pick", but...Barkley is worth a lot more than the 1.01 pick, so Barkley does not = the #1 pick. Likewise, Mixon is worth a little bit more than Clyde to me, so I would say there's no pick in this rookie draft quite equivalent to Mixon in value. If I were dealing Mixon for Clyde, I'd need something else thrown in there. Maybe a 2nd rounder of some sort. So it might be more accurate to say Mixon is 1.01 & 2.06 or something along those lines.

Sure.  I’m saying, at the very least if Mixon were in this draft he’d likely be 1.01.  Some might prefer CEH. Some might prefer Mixon.  So I think you can roughly call Mixon the equivalent to 1.01 and if so, it’s not outrageous for someone to part with the 1.05/1.06 to get the 1.01.  Not would it be outrageous if the owner of 1.01 preferred that pick to the 1.05/1.06.

A trade calculator that says Mixon vs Sutton/1.06 is waaaaaay out of balance is of little use IMO.  Always hate it when someone responds to an offer I send stating that the trade calc tilts in my favor.  No, how about you use reason and logic and tell me why you’re not interested, why you feel it’s out of balance, or how it doesn’t help you or what you’re looking to do.  Not what some magic football nerd on the internet assigned as player values without any input as to what your team needs, strengths, league requirements, etc are.

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

A trade calculator that says Mixon vs Sutton/1.06 is waaaaaay out of balance is of little use IMO.  Always hate it when someone responds to an offer I send stating that the trade calc tilts in my favor.  No, how about you use reason and logic and tell me why you’re not interested, why you feel it’s out of balance, or how it doesn’t help you or what you’re looking to do.  Not what some magic football nerd on the internet assigned as player values without any input as to what your team needs, strengths, league requirements, etc are.

I'm with you there. Some of the worst trades I ever made were because rankings said I should accept the deal. After a while I think you develop a better sense for what "feels" right than deferring to flawed third party resources.

I also think it's funny when some owner who's desperately trying to peddle a certain player writes you a novel about why this guy is so good and why this deal is so great for you. The obvious retort is, "Okay, if this guy is so good, why are you trying to trade him?" You're not going to see me shopping many of the players I believe in unless I'm desperate or I can get somebody that I like even more.

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Cooks with Watson, upgrade from last year right? What rookie draft pick would you need to move Cook in a PPR dynasty? 

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Cooks with Watson, upgrade from last year right? What rookie draft pick would you need to move Cook in a PPR dynasty? 

The Jordan Reed of WRs.  Would probably look to package but if I can get Pittman, Mims, or Aiyuk, I'm in.

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1 hour ago, ffmail4me said:

Cooks with Watson, upgrade from last year right? What rookie draft pick would you need to move Cook in a PPR dynasty? 

 

43 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

The Jordan Reed of WRs.  Would probably look to package but if I can get Pittman, Mims, or Aiyuk, I'm in.

Cooks went in the 10th round in the 2 mocks I did today.  Superflex's but between Mims and Pittman in 1, between Pittman and Claypool in the other.  Both were rookie #17.  

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17 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

Cooks went in the 10th round in the 2 mocks I did today.  Superflex's but between Mims and Pittman in 1, between Pittman and Claypool in the other.  Both were rookie #17.  

Thanks, good info.  I certainly wouldn't trade any of those guys not named Claypool for him and might be willing to add.  He's probably better in a package deal though regardless of which side of the fence folks are on.

I'm really particular about the rookies this year.  Rather bet on Cooks not getting another concussion than Claypool, Higgins, or Shenault.  So I can't say I'd take the 2.06 in a vacuum over him but there are definitely early to mid round 2nds I'd rather draft.

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The red flags surrounding Cooks are there. It’s gonna take a certain owner willing to take on a player like Cooks. If you find an owner with even slight interest you might want to be flexible in giving a little extra to make a deal happen because I think most owners see the risk outweighing the reward and the rookie fever is real.

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