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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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I definitely would not accept any of those deals if trading back.  Would need significantly more.

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What caliber WR would you want if giving up the 1.03? The list is probably not that big for WRs that are worth moving this pick. Need both WR and RB but thinking about leveraging the RB carrot for an established known commodity at WR.

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17 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

What caliber WR would you want if giving up the 1.03? The list is probably not that big for WRs that are worth moving this pick. Need both WR and RB but thinking about leveraging the RB carrot for an established known commodity at WR.

I probably would not give up the top 6 or 7 WR's for the 1.03 (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Evans, Hopkins, Adams) for the 1.03. Anyone else I may. So I'd say if you can get one of those guys you'd be doing well.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, kutta said:

I probably would not give up the top 6 or 7 WR's for the 1.03 (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Evans, Hopkins, Adams) for the 1.03. Anyone else I may. So I'd say if you can get one of those guys you'd be doing well.

DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?

they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.

Edited by BigAl21

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15 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?

they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.

Possibly. I'm not as high on them as the rest of the world, but it's close.

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Startup ADP has the 3rd rookie in the middle of WRs like Moore, Juju, AJB, Evans.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?

they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.

Hmm, now you have me thinking. I own DJ Moore & have plenty of WR depth, but would like to add a quality RB with Fournette & Cook as 2 of my top RBs. I might have to try to make something happen. I don't think anyone would move the 1.03 for Golladay so DJ it would have to be lol

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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I guess I'm down on the 1.03 compared to most people because I wouldn't give a top 15 dynasty WR for it.

Players like JuJu, AJB, and Moore are the best-case scenario for how a rookie might turn out, so there's no sense giving them up just to roll the dice again.

Only makes sense if you need a RB and think one of Dobbins, Swift, or Akers is a lock.

It's likely that one of them will hit, but I wouldn't give up a top WR to find out.

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As a DJ Moore owner I would not move him for 1.03.  The best you’d hope for is to get someone back who scores like him.  

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3 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?

they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.

I own Moore in dynasty and would not move him for the 1.03. Honestly, if I were offered the 1.01 for him right now I’m not sure what I would do. If I were a Brown owner, I would probably take the 1.03 for him, though. 

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

I guess I'm down on the 1.03 compared to most people because I wouldn't give a top 15 dynasty WR for it.

Players like JuJu, AJB, and Moore are the best-case scenario for how a rookie might turn out, so there's no sense giving them up just to roll the dice again.

Only makes sense if you need a RB and think one of Dobbins, Swift, or Akers is a lock.

It's likely that one of them will hit, but I wouldn't give up a top WR to find out.

I agree that those WRs are > 1.03 but I absolutely don't agree they are the best case scenario for how a rookie might turn out.

People have drafted guys like McCaffrey, Mixon, and Chubb at 1.03 over the last few years and all of those guys are currently worth more than the WRs, in CMC's case a lot more.

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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

People have drafted guys like McCaffrey, Mixon, and Chubb at 1.03 over the last few years.

They've also drafted Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel there as well. 

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While I agree that that young stud RB are harder to come by, I think my risk tolerance is pretty low in dynasty as I am new to the format.

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Throwing McCaffrey as an example of a guy that was had at 1.03 is a complete anomaly. His production won’t be seen from a non 1.01/1.02 “generational” back probably for quite some time. And while Chubb and Mixon are solid young backs they are still only slightly value above Moore. Their value will decrease sooner than a Moore or Brown’s value will and as others mentioned You could miss entirely with the pick. I will be actively trying to land one when I get on the clock. 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

They've also drafted Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel there as well. 

Not really relevant when you look at the quote I was responding to, which considered a best case scenario.

 

47 minutes ago, BigAl21 said:

Throwing McCaffrey as an example of a guy that was had at 1.03 is a complete anomaly. His production won’t be seen from a non 1.01/1.02 “generational” back probably for quite some time. And while Chubb and Mixon are solid young backs they are still only slightly value above Moore. Their value will decrease sooner than a Moore or Brown’s value will and as others mentioned You could miss entirely with the pick. I will be actively trying to land one when I get on the clock. 

Le'Veon was a 1.03 as well.  I remember because I drafted him there.

Regarding the last half of the quote it's skipping ahead to assume that Moore/AJB/JUJU won't decrease in value themselves.  Lots of young promising WRs have faded off the same way RBs have.  The bottom line is like 50% of the 1.03's over the last few years have been worth more than those guys so to say those guys are an absolutely best case scenario for 1.03 is not true.  If Dobbins/Swift end up being merely pretty good over the next year or two they will be 1st round startup picks which is more than Moore/AJB/Juju are worth right now.

I'm not saying that value increase is worth the added risk involved, as I said above I prefer DJM or AJB to the 1.03, I'm just saying that calling late 2nd/early 3rd round startup players the best case value scenario for 1.03 is way off.  A bunch of guys drafted in the top 5 of rookie drafts have exceeded that value over the last few years, some by a lot.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Posted (edited)

I get what FreeBagel was saying and sort of agree with it. I think both sides have good points. The only thing I'd think is that you want more of a sure thing if you have the 1.03 because chances are that your margin for error is so slim when trying to improve a team that is lousy. To wit: I think that Swift at 1.03/1.04 is a big risk because he has no clear path to starting in the next two years other than injury, IIRC. Kerryon's talent is there. The coach is an RBBC guy. Where's the implicit guarantee he'll start in Year Two, even? As for the other pick, Dobbins best hope he flashes in practice and the few carries he'll get in games, or they'll bring Ingram back for cheap in Baltimore, if you ask me. They don't care about fantasy drafts or even these guys' individual careers. It's all team first, head coach first. 

Too much risk there in terms of situation this year.  

Edited by Encumbrance
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Not sure why what Freebagel said is being debated. He said, and provided examples of players picked at 1.3 whose value is higher then those WR's mentioned in response to a comment you can't get more value. You can get more value. You can also lose value but as he pointed out those WR's are not locked into their value either.

 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Not sure why what Freebagel said is being debated. He said, and provided examples of players picked at 1.3 whose value is higher then those WR's mentioned in response to a comment you can't get more value. You can get more value. You can also lose value but as he pointed out those WR's are not locked into their value either.

You're right. I think somewhere along the line the premises got changed and it became about risk aversion. FreeBagel was technically right; the implications of what he was saying naturally lend itself to a risk disucssion. 

Edited by Encumbrance
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1 hour ago, Encumbrance said:

I get what FreeBagel was saying and sort of agree with it. I think both sides have good points. The only thing I'd think is that you want more of a sure thing if you have the 1.03 because chances are that your margin for error is so slim when trying to improve a team that is lousy. To wit: I think that Swift at 1.03/1.04 is a big risk because he has no clear path to starting in the next two years other than injury, IIRC. Kerryon's talent is there. The coach is an RBBC guy. Where's the implicit guarantee he'll start in Year Two, even? As for the other pick, Dobbins best hope he flashes in practice and the few carries he'll get in games, or they'll bring Ingram back for cheap in Baltimore, if you ask me. They don't care about fantasy drafts or even these guys' individual careers. It's all team first, head coach first. 

Too much risk there in terms of situation this year.  

I actually view Swift as safe myself, it's just a matter of how high of a floor.  No clear path to being a bell cow maybe but you don't need to be a bell cow especially when you are very skilled at receiving. The receiving part IMO, which is a great part of his game, provides him a solid floor which is why I think he's actually safe.

Yes Kerryon remains, the guy who can't stay healthy and fumbled away his shot last year with health but also not performing well which almost seems to be forgotten . And also fair to note Kerryon was #4 in rushing attempts last year after 4 weeks, then he had a bye in week 5 and got hurt in week 7 but averaged a healthy 17.4 per carries his first 5 full games before going down. I don't think DET is a bell cow RB destination but it may not be NE Midwest as everyone assumes either and Bevell, who has a history with some bell cow RB's might have a say in their usage.

Saying that I personally don't expect Swift to be a bell cow but don't think he needs to be either but while he has no implicit guarantee he starts year one or two the job is also there for the taking on day one.

Agree on Dobbins.

Or you could pick Akers at 1.3 and have who I believe is the Rams starting RB.

I'm not saying any of these options are better then DJ Moore or JuJu. I'd take them all over AJ Brown myself so put me down for that. But as Freebagel has been alluding to WR is deep now and if you don't have a high pick you are taking second rate RB's hoping one hits which is why players like Vaughn are going over first round pedigreed WR's. And have you checked out next years early draft outlook? The top RB's right now on almost everyone's list are RB's who could have come out this year but remained but most mocks have 7-9 WR's. WR is deep and just getting deeper.

At some point, and I think this is the big thing people miss on why some teams trade for high picks to draft a RB, is when your team is consistently good your opportunity to draft a RB without reaching is almost impossible. So yes trading a "proven" player for a high pick has risk but it's a risk that at some point might need to be taken because just sitting back and trying to draft a RB when you constantly pick late round one is not easy.

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7 hours ago, Wigglytuff's Gruff said:

They've also drafted Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel there as well. 

Both of them saw their value at least hold if not increase once they started playing. I mention that to highlight how much people will pay for a RB, that if you did not like what you bought you had ample opportunity to get out and also to point out, which again freebagel has alluded to, that WR's can lose value as well. I mean this should not need to be said because one of the WR's being discussed, JuJu, has lost a lot of value in the fantasy community. I value him a lot more then most but I've been seeing him traded for not even half of what he was worth last year.

And that draft year with those two RB's you mentioned I'd point out  I drafted Guice twice, Michel twice, ROJO twice and Penny once.  I still own ROJO in two leagues and Guice in one. But I made profits or at least broke even dealing Guice, Michel twice and Penny because teams needed RB's so badly.

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10 minutes ago, menobrown said:

At some point, and I think this is the big thing people miss on why some teams trade for high picks to draft a RB, is when your team is consistently good your opportunity to draft a RB without reaching is almost impossible. So yes trading a "proven" player for a high pick has risk but it's a risk that at some point might need to be taken because just sitting back and trying to draft a RB when you constantly pick late round one is not easy.

This is a really fair point and I lost the fact that the original argument involved trading. I was assuming the team with the 1.03 wasn't very good and forgot someone was trading in with a WR. 

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ADP

JK Dobbins is the 3rd rookie selected at pick 23

DJ Moore is being selected at 17

AJ Brown, Mike Evans, OBJ, Amari Cooper all being selected after pick 23

The first rookie WR being selected at pick 43

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, menobrown said:

 

At some point, and I think this is the big thing people miss on why some teams trade for high picks to draft a RB, is when your team is consistently good your opportunity to draft a RB without reaching is almost impossible. So yes trading a "proven" player for a high pick has risk but it's a risk that at some point might need to be taken because just sitting back and trying to draft a RB when you constantly pick late round one is not easy.

Yes, and in my experience the teams that are the most risk averse (to this specific kind of example) are the ones that end up stagnant and ####ty. As a result I believe you can make the argument that it is actually more risky to be risk averse. Or that is to say the downside can be greater. As with all things, you're hoping for balance. Not your entire squad is going to be made up of chalk, just like your whole squad shouldn't be flyers with upside, but you definitely want both. And less of a third kind, which is the depreciating vet(s), the roster cloggers. 

Good perspectives on Akers and Swift. I've really hated both their landing spots for the most part and have avoided everywhere. But there is a lot of time between now and week 1 to keep evaluating, and I probably should do so on a handful of rookies. Ruggs, Reagor, Mims are some other names I didn't come away with in any rookie drafts or the two startups I did this year, and will want to revisit. I more or less grabbed Dobbins, Jefferson and Pittman almost everywhere, and a few sprinkles of CEH, Taylor, Vaughn, Edwards, Aiyuk and Claypool. A couple Gibsons. But looking ahead to redraft and especially the FPC (I've drafted 3 so far - I'm crazy) I really want to see if there are some rookies I've been avoiding that I should reconsider, even in a virus impacted season with rookies. Rookie RBs especially, and Akers and Swift should probably be bumped higher on my board I'm guessing. 

ETA - not going to go into a redraft tangent ^^^  here but I do tend to be biased for rookies in dynasties that I think can have an immediate impact, so my redraft board doesn't always look so different from dynasty in terms of the rookies.

Edited by barackdhouse
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18 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

DJ Moore or AJ Brown move the needle enough for you to move the 1.03?

they are close for me because even though they haven’t consistently shown it, their age makes them so appealing.

In a PPR I would move 1.03 for DJ Moore in a flash.  AJ Brown would be coin flip value.

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Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

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The hit rate on day 2 RBs (i.e. Swift/Akers/Dobbins) doesn't justify giving up a bird-in-hand young star WR like Moore, JuJu, or AJB except in leagues with extremely skewed formats that lend artificial value to the RB position. There are 4-5 RBs this good in every draft class. They aren't a special commodity.

The idea that "they'll carry value a year from now even if they don't hit long-term" is built on the hypothetical reality where you can always recognize the hits from the misses and sell accordingly, but that's not how things typically work in practice. If you burned a top 5 rookie pick on a back like Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Anthony Thomas, or Doug Martin who peaked as a rookie, it's pretty likely that you would've bought into the hype after his big rookie year and held the bomb while it exploded on your roster. Most people don't cash out when their young RBs show promise. I don't see Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs owners desperate to make deals right now. If you draft someone like Swift and he ends up being a long-term mediocrity, there's a pretty good chance that you'll be the one stuck with him.

3/5 of my leagues are very flex-y with only 1 mandatory RB spot, so maybe that colors my perspective some, but I'm definitely not itching to trade my rookie draft hits like Deebo and JuJu for a Cam Akers who's probably a 30% chance to become Ray Rice/40% chance to become Zac Stacy/30% chance to become Kenny Irons. I don't believe the math supports that move, and if I were desperate for RB help then there are numerous alternatives I can explore (pay a premium for an elite back, pay less for an aging veteran, or buy a cheaper prospect). I'd rather make a big play for a Mixon, go the short-term rental route with a Henry/Gordon/Drake type, or make a bargain play for a D Harris/Edmonds/Mattison than sell off top 10-15 dynasty WRs for an average day two RB talent.

If your league format makes it logical to sell off your best young players for mediocre rookie prospects at another position, your league format is pretty imbalanced.

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

Apparently those are the only guys left?

 

 

Even without knowing your roster size, rules,  etc.  I'd say save your $ for a week 1 or 2 wonder.  If you must,  I'd take Warren,  cheap. 

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11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

$5 max for whoever you actually like.  Out of those names the only ones I'd consider is Mooney, Warren, Watkins, Hightower and Reed.  But I would probably put $0 bids in and save it for in season since they're end of bench hopeful's that if they don't garner some hype in pre-season you're just cutting them anyways.  If I didn't get them for $0 then so be it.  

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9 hours ago, jabarony said:

Apparently those are the only guys left?

 

 

Even without knowing your roster size, rules,  etc.  I'd say save your $ for a week 1 or 2 wonder.  If you must,  I'd take Warren,  cheap. 

Well, there’s a bunch of guys. These are the only guys left that I had ranked, and that pop up on various “sleeper” lists. 

I’m actually quite high on Mooney & he’s the one of two I put in a small bid for (the other being Warren) 

the rest I was just curious where the denizens of FBG had them valued. 
:shrug:

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On 6/10/2020 at 10:56 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

In an off season where these guys will have almost no time to make an impression I can't see any of them making a good return until next year, and by then there's going to be a new group of rookies to drool over.

Like everyone else said, 5 bucks if you need to have someone, otherwise it's a waste of a roster spot.

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12 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

In an off season where these guys will have almost no time to make an impression I can't see any of them making a good return until next year, and by then there's going to be a new group of rookies to drool over.

Like everyone else said, 5 bucks if you need to have someone, otherwise it's a waste of a roster spot.

Well, our rosters expanded & I had 0 draft picks, so I need to try for a couple of em. lol

But this was more of a general question. Those were the FAs after our draft that I’ve consistently seen on sleeper lists. 

i like Mooney, Proche, Hightower & Warren. I think $5/$500 is a little light, as I can’t be the only one interested in those guys but probably true that most on this list won’t be worth much never know though.
 

Lottery tickets do hit sometimes. :shrug: 

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On 6/10/2020 at 7:56 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

It depends a bit on roster size & how good the waiver wire options tend to be in your league, but I'd probably stick to the minimum bid for these guys ($0 or $1). None of them are in the top 50 in my rookie rankings. In most leagues I'd expect at least a few of them to pass through waivers unclaimed, and I don't see much difference between my favorite of the bunch and my 5th favorite. So I'd just rank them and see which one fell to me for the minimum bid.

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8 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Well, our rosters expanded & I had 0 draft picks, so I need to try for a couple of em. lol

But this was more of a general question. Those were the FAs after our draft that I’ve consistently seen on sleeper lists. 

i like Mooney, Proche, Hightower & Warren. I think $5/$500 is a little light, as I can’t be the only one interested in those guys but probably true that most on this list won’t be worth much never know though.
 

Lottery tickets do hit sometimes. :shrug: 

Those guys all made it through five rounds of a rookie draft for a reason - and most of the players drafted in rounds 3, 4 and 5 won't ever amount to anything as is.

Lottery tickets can hit, yes, but the percentages say you'd be just throwing that money away, as opposed to being able to spend it in-season after you see a guy come "out of nowhere". I'd put a buck or two on a few of them if you really need a few bodies but wouldn't shed a tear if I missed out.

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On 6/10/2020 at 9:56 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

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11 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

Got him for $2

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Those guys all made it through five rounds of a rookie draft for a reason - and most of the players drafted in rounds 3, 4 and 5 won't ever amount to anything as is.

Lottery tickets can hit, yes, but the percentages say you'd be just throwing that money away, as opposed to being able to spend it in-season after you see a guy come "out of nowhere". I'd put a buck or two on a few of them if you really need a few bodies but wouldn't shed a tear if I missed out.

That was my approach. Got all I wanted but one. Max bid was $6 for Mooney & Hightower,.

apparently someone wanted Hightower for $13, which was too rich for my blood.

ended up with Reed, Mooney, Warren, Proche & Quez for a grand total of $14

not really why I posted -  I didn’t change any bids since posting this. More just curious what others thought of the values. I’m kinda shocked Hightower went for that much, tbh. 

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12 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That was my approach. Got all I wanted but one. Max bid was $6 for Mooney & Hightower,.

apparently someone wanted Hightower for $13, which was too rich for my blood.

ended up with Reed, Mooney, Warren, Proche & Quez for a grand total of $14

not really why I posted -  I didn’t change any bids since posting this. More just curious what others thought of the values. I’m kinda shocked Hightower went for that much, tbh. 

Not sure why Hightower went that much.  My guess is that people love betting on the underdog rather than the highly drafted guy when a team double up's.  It's usually a massive story if they show some promise.  

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18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:
30 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

Got him for $2

I very seriously doubt Reed would get reps over fellow rookie WR Hill or even WRs Patton and Jennings in that scenario, not to mention that RB Ekeler and TE Henry would likely get more targets. Reed is a project at WR, whereas Hill is much more polished. I think the injury that could provide more reps to Reed is if Ekeler were to get hurt. Most of those reps would still go to RBs Jackson and Kelley, but some would probably go to Reed in a hybrid/gadget role.

I realize it is just $2, but I would not expect anyone to hold Reed very long on a roster unless rosters are really deep.

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44 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I very seriously doubt Reed would get reps over fellow rookie WR Hill or even WRs Patton and Jennings in that scenario, not to mention that RB Ekeler and TE Henry would likely get more targets. Reed is a project at WR, whereas Hill is much more polished. I think the injury that could provide more reps to Reed is if Ekeler were to get hurt. Most of those reps would still go to RBs Jackson and Kelley, but some would probably go to Reed in a hybrid/gadget role.

I realize it is just $2, but I would not expect anyone to hold Reed very long on a roster unless rosters are really deep.

Draft capital for Reed far exceeds Hill. Or should we ignore draft capital? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, I-ROK said:

Draft capital for Reed far exceeds Hill. Or should we ignore draft capital? 

No, and I didn't say it should be ignored. However:

  1. Reed was drafted early in the 5th round and Hill early in the 7th. Not much difference between 5th and 7th round prospects IMO.
  2. Hill was graded higher than Reed coming into the draft, since grading is based on positional ability, not special teams ability. Reed was known to be a project at WR, while Hill projected as a possible starting caliber slot WR. Hill's strongest attribute is route running, which is Reed's weakest attribute.
  3. Reed was drafted higher primarily to be a core special teamer and kick returner. His secondary role will be to be a hybrid/gadget player who can line up in the backfield, run jet sweeps, etc.
  4. Because Hill should be a better WR from day one, if Allen or Williams goes down, he would likely get more replacement snaps than Allen, especially with the abbreviated offseason. Neither of them is close to as good as Allen or Williams, so it seems pretty unlikely that either of them would be useful fantasy starters in an injury scenario unless in extremely deep lineup leagues.

GM Tom Telesco quotes on the two players:

Quote

On WR Joe Reed:

"Well, you kind of hit on it right there. He can do a lot of different things, we think. He played wide receiver, but they used him a lot just to get the ball in his hands — almost like a running back. Between some receiver, maybe a little bit of running back, certainly as a kickoff returner — we really like him in that position with his size. You know, 225 pounds, but he still runs very well and has a great feel for kickoff returning. To add in, covering punts and covering kicks — he can do a lot of things for us. So we'll get him in here and see where he fits. The thing that really stood out about him is how versatile he really is in some different areas."

On how Reed can complement RB Austin Ekeler:

"Well, those are good pieces to have for an offensive coordinator. His kickoff returning ability is really, really good — he's one of the best ones we saw this year in college. Even though the kickoff is de-emphasized now, you need to have a guy back there that people respect. If you don't, they're going to sky-kick it, kick it inside the five. Then, if you don't have a guy who can get it out of there, you're going to get pinned back a lot. We like him in that category, we'll kind of see how he works from a receiver/running back, but those are nice pieces to have for an offensive coordinator where he can move some players around."

On WR K.J. Hill:

"Every year, in the draft, there are always so many receivers that it seems like a couple of guys fall a little further down than you would expect. K.J. had a great career at Ohio State —  a four-year player with four years of production. He's super smart and instinctive and has a great feel to get open, which a lot of inside receivers need to have. [He has] excellent hands, he's done some punt returns, too. It was nice that he was still there in the seventh round that we could take a shot at that."

On Hill being available in the seventh round:

"Like I said before, the receiver position just because there are so many of them, it just seems like every couple years there's some guys that fall a little bit further down than you think. I don't know. Everyone's draft boards were different. Every media person's draft board was different. You never really know, but to get a really experienced receiver like that come in and have a chance to make this football team as a receiver/special teamer, I think we'll have a good opportunity for him."

:shrug: 

Edited by Just Win Baby

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31 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

No, and I didn't say it should be ignored. However:

  1. Reed was drafted early in the 5th round and Hill early in the 7th. Not much difference between 5th and 7th round prospects IMO.
  2. Hill was graded higher than Reed coming out of the draft, since grading is based on positional ability, not special teams ability. Reed was known to be a project at WR, while Hill projected as a possible starting caliber slot WR. Hill's strongest attribute is route running, which is Reed's weakest attribute.
  3. Reed was drafted higher primarily to be a core special teamer and kick returner. His secondary role will be to be a hybrid/gadget player who can line up in the backfield, run jet sweeps, etc.
  4. Because Hill should be a better WR from day one, if Allen or Williams goes down, he would likely get more replacement snaps than Allen, especially with the abbreviated offseason. Neither of them is close to as good as Allen or Williams, so it seems pretty unlikely that either of them would be useful fantasy starters in an injury scenario unless in extremely deep lineup leagues.

GM Tom Telesco quotes on the two players:

:shrug: 

Thanks for you explanation 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Got him for $2

Who else did you get? Some decent lotto picks on that list but as others have said, they are lotto picks

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3 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Who else did you get? Some decent lotto picks on that list but as others have said, they are lotto picks

Mooney, Reed, Warren, Proche & Quez Watkins. 

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Reed is a really good athlete for his size and was one of the most promising day 3 skill players I saw in highlights this year. He has a rare combination of size, speed, and quickness. However, I would say he was drafted more for his return ability than anything else, as he was relatively unproductive in college purely as a WR. I think he's an interesting project for super deep leagues because of his athletic traits, but up to now he hasn't produced much outside of the return game and that doesn't bode very well for his chances of blossoming into a monster WR in the NFL. He's definitely an interesting ball of clay for a team to work with though.

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12 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What's the general thought on value of Fournette vs Conner in PPR this year & beyond?

I'd much prefer Fournette but I think there's a case for Conner as well.  Fournette seems like the guy that would get another opportunity to be the workhorse, Conner would lead a committee instead of taking a dominant workload.  Conner is way more injury prone as well.  I have them ranked at RB17 and RB32.  

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The way I see it, Conner is an RB1 if he's on the field playing. If healed, the injuries he dealt with aren't going to have caused any lasting damage that affect his ability to perform. They were virtually all upper body injuries. And he was reasonably effective in the games he actually finished last year as well.

Obviously there's a massive risk of those injuries being a permanent fixture for him, given his time in the league so far. We're all guessing. I doubt Conner has much idea at this stage either.

If Conner is to have any value beyond this season, he needs to last the duration with the bare minimum of games missed and if he does that, I think he'll perform well. If that happens, I could see the Steeler's offering him a franchise friendly longer term deal and I think he'd probably sign it if there were decent guarantees for him. They are far more likely to just tag him though. And I think he'd play on the tag. 

In my opinion then, James Conner's range of outcomes over the coming 2 seasons are either very valuable, or zero value. I don't see any scenario where he's a mid range RB going forward. He's either performing well and getting considerably more money going into next year or out the league at the end of this season. Given the averages you'd think it's much more likely to be the latter of those two. It's not inconceivable that it's the former though.

-----

Fournette is a total mystery. From my experiences the perception of his value is minimal, even though he projects to be an RB1 in terms of opportunity next season. 

It's hard to envisage a scenario where he's a Jaguar after next season. If he's just an average performer, they wouldn't offer him a contract, if he is a superstar and wins the rushing title eg, he'd use that to get out of there ASAP.

I'd say it's much more likely he becomes a mid range guy, somewhere around the RB20-25 mark. I think I saw a good comparison to Carlos Hyde earlier. A sort of safe floor journeyman who does a job but doesn't really excite. A few years as a useful stop gap for a couple of different teams. I think that's the future for him.

All just my opinion of course.

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How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

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