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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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By the way, Sanders and Chubb are still top-flight backs, and are likely priced accordingly. Anybody seeing a difference from being an easy high first should post and let us know so we can be jealous. I'm sure that and plus some is what they're going for. 

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

There isn't. But I don't think you can get a whole lot for what he's truly worth right now. Even back in the summer, I got laughed at for a first. And I laughed back about a mid-second. I think it's one of those two-year type deals where you're not in redraft mode, you're thinking longer term because you're stuck with him and his perceived value. I think the talent outweighs his market price, much like a bunch of veteran receivers we talk about, though Chark's not even close to a vet yet.

If I told you people about his measurables, his draft capital, and that he'd had a thousand yard season without knowing it's Chark and Jacksonville, you'd get very few people willing to part with him.

I see what you're saying. I think if you'd read the tea leaves you'd have seen that a 2nd was the best you could hope for. If you think he's got more upside than that, then of course you keep him. I'd rather roll the dice on someone else.

On a finer point...while his total points look good he has wild week to week deviation. I dislike players like that.

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

By the way, Sanders and Chubb are still top-flight backs, and are likely priced accordingly. Anybody seeing a difference from being an easy high first should post and let us know so we can be jealous. I'm sure that and plus some is what they're going for. 

I gave Keenan Allen, Mark Andrews, Darrynton Evans, and Tarik Cohen for Chubb in a non-ppr.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

I gave Keenan Allen, Mark Andrews, Darrynton Evans, and Tarik Cohen for Chubb in a non-ppr.

Yeah, I saw that. That was a good haul for those guys. You saw the guy was taking parts for cornerstones, so to speak, and lined up for some. He was the guy that irked you with the Cooper deal, IIRC, by doing the same thing.

Double nickels on the dime, as the Minutemen would say. 

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I see what you're saying. I think if you'd read the tea leaves you'd have seen that a 2nd was the best you could hope for. If you think he's got more upside than that, then of course you keep him. I'd rather roll the dice on someone else.

On a finer point...while his total points look good he has wild week to week deviation. I dislike players like that.

I don't disagree with any of this, nor the irritation of variance. All things constant, it's better to know what you're getting than not know. You can then adjust accordingly. 

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41 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well I have CeeDee Lamb fever, so in a non-ppr rebuild I gave Chark, McLaurin, and Kyler Murray for Wentz & Lamb. I doubt too many people would do that.

I think there’s an extremely good chance you gave the better QB and WR along with a free Chark for your mancrush, wow

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49 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Well I have CeeDee Lamb fever, so in a non-ppr rebuild I gave Chark, McLaurin, and Kyler Murray for Wentz & Lamb. I doubt too many people would do that.

While I am a big on Wentz & Lamb, I like this but I see it as a slight overpay.  And sometimes that is what it takes to get it done to get who you want & feel are better values. 

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1 hour ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I think there’s an extremely good chance you gave the better QB and WR along with a free Chark for your mancrush, wow

 

1 hour ago, Birdie048 said:

While I am a big on Wentz & Lamb, I like this but I see it as a slight overpay.  And sometimes that is what it takes to get it done to get who you want & feel are better values. 

All true looking shorter term. But while McLaurin isn't old by any stretch, Lamb is four years younger. And each year seems to have a new hot QB. Two years ago Mahomes, Last year Jackson, this year Murray...I expect it to be someone else next year - possibly the Tua I took for that team.

I've had Chark on my squad for three years. Hasn't helped me win many games. 

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On 10/30/2020 at 12:01 PM, JFS171 said:

On a different note, and all leagues are obviously different, how do you approach future draft picks when you’re a contending team (though perhaps not the outright favorite)?  

IMO the worst place an NFL team can find itself is stuck in the middle (think Marvin Lewis’ Bengals). Good enough to go 7-9 to 10-6 any given year, but never a real threat and never bad enough to get an elite talent in the next draft. 

Should we consider our dynasty leagues the same way?  If you’re currently in 4th-6th place but see an easy path to not only making the playoffs but pushing for the title, do you look to bet on yourself and trade your future picks for current help?  I’m not suggesting trading a 1 for somebody like Jamison Crowder, but pushing chips in on a younger player to put you that much more in contention?

Similarly, would you rather have the shot at the next draft class even in that mid-late first range or the second round, or do you prefer to cash those in for guys you’ve already seen (like trading right now for Aiyuk or Higgins or Shenault and betting they fulfill potential)?

Just curious as to the philosophy of other smart players ...

I very much agree and this shapes a lot of my dynasty approach. I've made my share of mistakes with overly aggressive tear-downs, but I try to be decisive about moving into a rebuild if the writing is on the wall. I usually do a combination of seeking out first rounders and/or "losing" trades for guys who I consider long-term cornerstones.

If I'm in contention, conversely, I'm very willing to trade away future value for production now. I used to move first rounders more willingly than I do now, but that's because the most fun part of dynasty for me is the offseason; but I'll still trade firsts, young players who are injured, etc. Ideally I only make enough moves necessary to field a credible playoff team, without gutting too much future value.

I've learned my lesson on absolutes in either direction (e.g. complete tear-down or all-in on a 2-year window). It just doesn't leave any room for error, contingency. 

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13 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

 

All true looking shorter term. But while McLaurin isn't old by any stretch, Lamb is four years younger. And each year seems to have a new hot QB. Two years ago Mahomes, Last year Jackson, this year Murray...I expect it to be someone else next year - possibly the Tua I took for that team.

I've had Chark on my squad for three years. Hasn't helped me win many games. 

I'm a big believer in go get your guy. With a guy like Lamb it becomes a pretty binary call: either "overpay" and get him, or accept he won't be on your roster. I know someone might say "or, wait for him to have a down year and get him at lower cost" but that assumes a more fluid market than exists in any of my leagues. If I think a player is for real, I'm taking a risk to get him. If I'm right, the excess costs of the "overpay" are a distant memory sooner rather than later. If I'm wrong (and of course I am sometimes) at least I'm playing the way I want to play.

Edited by DAG
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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

 

All true looking shorter term. But while McLaurin isn't old by any stretch, Lamb is four years younger. And each year seems to have a new hot QB. Two years ago Mahomes, Last year Jackson, this year Murray...I expect it to be someone else next year - possibly the Tua I took for that team.

I've had Chark on my squad for three years. Hasn't helped me win many games. 

I am a big proponent of "getting your guy" even if it means a slight overpay in perceived value in a deal.  That seems like what happened here.  If you are right on Lamb then the bits and pieces that were swapped around him to make the deal work will be a distant memory 2-3 years from now.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I am a big proponent of "getting your guy" even if it means a slight overpay in perceived value in a deal.  That seems like what happened here.  If you are right on Lamb then the bits and pieces that were swapped around him to make the deal work will be a distant memory 2-3 years from now.

Exactly...if you want to obtain one of the young guns like Lamb, AJB, Jefferson or Metcalf you are going to have to overpay...no way around it...it may hurt a little short term but it will soon be forgotten.

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Not everyone/league loves McLaurin. Offered him to a contender with an extra 2021 first for the pick and Zack Moss. Rejected with no counter. :shrug:

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19 minutes ago, Boston said:

Exactly...if you want to obtain one of the young guns like Lamb, AJB, Jefferson or Metcalf you are going to have to overpay...no way around it...it may hurt a little short term but it will soon be forgotten.

Here's the flip side of it.Superflex non-ppr. I'm a Metcalf owner and was just offered Mike Evans, Jamal Williams (I own Aaron Jones), and his 2021 1st for Metcalf. I don't want to deal Metcalf, but I appreciate that he's recognized the price to be paid and I may need to take it. 

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1 minute ago, Zow said:

Here's the flip side of it.Superflex non-ppr. I'm a Metcalf owner and was just offered Mike Evans, Jamal Williams (I own Aaron Jones), and his 2021 1st for Metcalf. I don't want to deal Metcalf, but I appreciate that he's recognized the price to be paid and I may need to take it. 

IT'S A TRAP! 

Don't do that deal.

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

IT'S A TRAP! 

Don't do that deal.

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 

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1 minute ago, Zow said:

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 

Stick with Metcalf.  

I have been trying to get him for higher prices than that.  

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2 minutes ago, Zow said:

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 

Yes. Evans is fool's gold. Those charts have him way over valued.

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1 minute ago, Zow said:

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 

I wouldn't do it. It's an OK offer from a trade calculator perspective, but Metcalf's arrow is way way up, he's tied to Wilson, and he is only likely to increase in value (or at least hold). It's difficult to gauge Evans's value with Brady, and then you have the question of post-Brady as well. Williams is a handcuff for you, and the 2021 first doesn't close the value gap.

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Just now, Andy Dufresne said:

Yes. Evans is fool's gold. Those charts have him way over valued.

All right glad I posted. You guys talked me out of it. 

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Yea I am with the others as well. Huge gap between DK and Evans for me and Williams/1st doesn't come close to covering it. 

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2 hours ago, Zow said:

Here's the flip side of it.Superflex non-ppr. I'm a Metcalf owner and was just offered Mike Evans, Jamal Williams (I own Aaron Jones), and his 2021 1st for Metcalf. I don't want to deal Metcalf, but I appreciate that he's recognized the price to be paid and I may need to take it. 

Agree with the other guys...not a deal I would touch...no way would I deal DJM for that...Evans is 27 and off to rocky start with Brady, Williams is a solid real RB but will probably never be more then a handcuff in fantasy and while a 1 is always nice no way does it close to the cap...Metcalf is one of the very top fantasy assets...if you deal him it needs to be for a very obvious overpay and not to be a dope but this isn't close.

Edited by Boston
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I'm with the others. Evans is now struggling to find himself with Brady, Williams is a GM/coach away from being behind Dillon in the pecking order, and the 1st probably doesn't have the hit rate you're looking for in terms of fantasy production.

Metcalf plays with Wilson and has pretty much lit the world on fire. 

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9 hours ago, Zow said:

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 


Yeah don’t do it.

I’ve been turned down after offering Mixon and Evans+ for Metcalf. I’ve also been turned down offering Tyreek and Slayton for Metcalf. 
 

Edit: I see everyone else already talked you down lol, oh well adding to the pile here

Edited by ConnSKINS26

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21 hours ago, Zow said:

You like the Metcalf side of it? 

 

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption). 

That calculator is not very helpful then.

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Unloaded Engram for a 2nd and Duvernay to the Ertz owner in one of my leagues to give an idea of his value and what he could still bring. Still think Engram could turn it around but that team of mine is going nowhere and neither are the Giants at the moment. Liked Duvernay a lot back in the draft too.

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Maybe James Robinson's value has finally gotten there in dynasty (PPR) or maybe ALlen's has just skyrocketed thanks to Herbert.

Just got an offer of Hopkins & Ekeler for Robinson & Keenan Allen (I own Robinson & Allen)

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23 hours ago, Zow said:

FBG dynasty trade value chart has me coming out pretty far ahead even assuming the 1st is a late 1st (I think a fair assumption).

I know this has been hashed out already but wanted to comment on this part. I was curious so I looked at Hindery's October dynasty trade charts, which shows these values:

  • 42 Metcalf
  • 33 Evans
  • 14 late 2021 first round pick
  • 0-1 Williams (not listed; bottom value listed is 2)

So, unless I missed something, this would show you would come out ahead on the trade by 5-6 points... not what I would call far ahead. Also:

  1. It was posted on October 6. My guess is the one that will be posted this week for November will show a wider gap between Metcalf and Evans.
  2. It does not account for the extra roster spot involved. You would get 2 for 1, so you would have to clear a roster spot. Not sure of your roster, so not sure if you have dead weight to drop that would not affect this value calculation.
  3. Hindery's chart assumes PPR, and your league is non-PPR. You'd have to decide how that affects the relative values of Metcalf and Evans.

Interesting topic of discussion.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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18 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I know this has been hashed out already but wanted to comment on this part. I was curious so I looked at Hindery's October dynasty trade charts, which shows these values:

  • 42 Metcalf
  • 33 Evans
  • 14 late 2021 first round pick
  • 0-1 Williams (not listed; bottom value listed is 2)

So, unless I missed something, this would show you would come out ahead on the trade by 5-6 points... not what I would call far ahead. Also:

  1. It was posted on October 6. My guess is the one that will be posted this week for November will show a wider gap between Metcalf and Evans.
  2. It does not account for the extra roster spot involved. You would get 2 for 1, so you would have to clear a roster spot. Not sure of your roster, so not sure if you have dead weight to drop that would not affect this value calculation.
  3. Hindery's chart assumes PPR, and your league is non-PPR. You'd have to decide how that affects the relative values of Metcalf and Evans.

Interesting topic of discussion.

Great analysis here. I had an open roster spot so the drop possibility wasn’t a factor. I assumed Williams a value of 5 because I own Aaron Jones. Nonetheless I think you’re right and my advantage wasn’t as stark as I thought. 

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Looking to pry Jeudy away from another owner. Has lagged many less touted rookie WRs due in no small part to the QB situation. Are people still high on him long term or has the interest cooled?

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On 11/1/2020 at 12:16 PM, Helaire-ious said:

Maybe James Robinson's value has finally gotten there in dynasty (PPR) or maybe ALlen's has just skyrocketed thanks to Herbert.

Just got an offer of Hopkins & Ekeler for Robinson & Keenan Allen (I own Robinson & Allen)

That's an interesting offer.  I own Hopkins, Robinson and Allen and have no idea what I would do here.  Do like seeing Robinson's value creeping to where it seemingly should be.

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32 minutes ago, sheerterror said:

That's an interesting offer.  I own Hopkins, Robinson and Allen and have no idea what I would do here.  Do like seeing Robinson's value creeping to where it seemingly should be.

I ended up declining FWIW. The way Herbert is playing & Targeting Allen, Hopkins v Allen is a wash & who knows what will happen with Ekeler when & if he comes back this year

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3 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

I ended up declining FWIW. The way Herbert is playing & Targeting Allen, Hopkins v Allen is a wash & who knows what will happen with Ekeler when & if he comes back this year

Hopkins has provided a 2.9 point per game advantage over Allen so far this season but Robinson is healthy and playing now while Ekeler is not.

Nice try by your competitor to steal Robinson. I think you made the right decision though as I am not sure if you trade Robinson for Ekeler even if healthy.

Robinson is on pace to score 305 points in PPR based on his first 7 games. Ekeler scored 313 points last season but a big part of that was 92 receptions and Rivers is not the QB anymore.

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What are thoughts on value for Hunter Henry and/or Crowder? Crowder is WR5 in my league in ppr- and he could be huge with Lawrence and no Gase next year 

Was offered Shenault and a 3rd or Allie Cox (I don’t need him) for Hunter Henry and Crowder

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47 minutes ago, You Know Who I Am said:

What are thoughts on value for Hunter Henry and/or Crowder? Crowder is WR5 in my league in ppr- and he could be huge with Lawrence and no Gase next year 

Was offered Shenault and a 3rd or Allie Cox (I don’t need him) for Hunter Henry and Crowder

Maybe it’s just my priorities on a dynasty team because I play lots of TE premium and WR is my last priority. I don’t think the book is written for Shenault yet but I’d rather have HH than Shenault straight up. Crowder is a DFS player only, not a dynasty asset in any way. I’d give him up for literally anything above a 4th. I view this exactly like HH for Shenault and I’d go HH every time. But maybe that’s my TE premium leagues talking

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How is the value of Mike Williams? I was offered Williams for 2 late 2021 2nds. He intrigues me with Hebert, but seems too much for the roller coaster that seems to be his stats each week.

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On 11/1/2020 at 6:11 PM, Buckna said:

Unloaded Engram for a 2nd and Duvernay to the Ertz owner in one of my leagues to give an idea of his value and what he could still bring. Still think Engram could turn it around but that team of mine is going nowhere and neither are the Giants at the moment. Liked Duvernay a lot back in the draft too.

I'd hold onto to Engram in hopes that he stays healthy and lands with a second team that improves his stock. Talent is there. Imagine if he signs with Seattle next year? 

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2 hours ago, BearsFan4Life said:

How is the value of Mike Williams? I was offered Williams for 2 late 2021 2nds. He intrigues me with Hebert, but seems too much for the roller coaster that seems to be his stats each week.

I've owned him since his rookie year, and while he's like my WR7 at this point, I'd cash out on 2 lotto tickets in a heartbeat.  He's absolutely impossible to predict and way better suited for best ball.

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What are you buying and selling out-of-nowhere players for? To throw out a few:

Player: Buying for, selling for

Robinson: Mid-1st, early 1st (likely top 3)

Gaskin: late 2nd, early 2nd

Fulgham: mid 2nd, late 1st

Callaway: 3rd, late 2nd

Shultz: 4th, 3rd

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4 hours ago, BearsFan4Life said:

How is the value of Mike Williams? I was offered Williams for 2 late 2021 2nds. He intrigues me with Hebert, but seems too much for the roller coaster that seems to be his stats each week.

I can't even give him away, but your post just made me try again & sent some guys an offer of him for their 2021 2nd. Let's see!

 

UPDATE: One owner declined my offer of my Williams for his 2021 2nd & countered with his 2022 2nd. Too far out or just smash accept? :D

Edited by Helaire-ious

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22 minutes ago, Helaire-ious said:

I can't even give him away, but your post just made me try again & sent some guys an offer of him for their 2021 2nd. Let's see!

 

UPDATE: One owner declined my offer of my Williams for his 2021 2nd & countered with his 2022 2nd. Too far out or just smash accept? :D

I think with Williams showing life and Herbert playing out of this world you don’t unload him for a 2nd.

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45 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you buying and selling out-of-nowhere players for? To throw out a few:

Player: Buying for, selling for

Robinson: Mid-1st, early 1st (likely top 3)

Gaskin: late 2nd, early 2nd

Fulgham: mid 2nd, late 1st

Callaway: 3rd, late 2nd

Shultz: 4th, 3rd

Tonyan?

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What are y'alls thoughts on the dynasty value of Tyreek?  In our .5ppr league he's sitting at 2nd overall WR but it really seems like the offense is SEVERELY crowded now and likely as much or moreso moving forward.

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@Dan Hindery

the November dynasty trade value chart has a comment about Mark Andrews but I don't see him in your top 40 TE rankings at all. I assume that's an oversight, yes?

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13 hours ago, You Know Who I Am said:

What are thoughts on value for Hunter Henry and/or Crowder? Crowder is WR5 in my league in ppr- and he could be huge with Lawrence and no Gase next year 

Was offered Shenault and a 3rd or Allie Cox (I don’t need him) for Hunter Henry and Crowder

I think you take that deal. You are getting the two best players.

This is an example of dynasty owners devaluing players too much because of their age. Sure Shenault might be a better producer than Crowder for the rest of his career but if you are trying to win now I Crowder is doing what Shenault owners hope he will do with some consistency in the future.

Henry for a 3rd round pick is also a steal.

As far as that goes you might be able to trade Crowder for more than Shenault later on.

I wouldn't count any chickens with Crowder getting a new QB and coach next season but Crowder just turned 27 in June. He will be 28 years old next season. He could pretty easily continue producing at a similar level for another two to three years as he has done with a multiple teams and QBs so far in his career.

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12 hours ago, Zyphros said:

 Crowder is a DFS player only, not a dynasty asset in any way. I’d give him up for literally anything above a 4th. 

You make this too easy for your competition.

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2 hours ago, Helaire-ious said:

I can't even give him away, but your post just made me try again & sent some guys an offer of him for their 2021 2nd. Let's see!

 

UPDATE: One owner declined my offer of my Williams for his 2021 2nd & countered with his 2022 2nd. Too far out or just smash accept? :D

I am not a fan of Mike Williams at all but I think you hang on to him and wait for a better offer.

I bet Williams has a big game or two coming up that should give you another chance. You have some idea of who the interested parties might be now.

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

What are you buying and selling out-of-nowhere players for? To throw out a few:

Player: Buying for, selling for

Robinson: Mid-1st, early 1st (likely top 3)

Gaskin: late 2nd, early 2nd

Fulgham: mid 2nd, late 1st

Callaway: 3rd, late 2nd

Shultz: 4th, 3rd

Is that Marquez Callaway?  If so, what do you all think of him overall?  He looked great against the Panthers and then got dinged. He seemed to do it all at Tennessee, but never played for a consistent coaching staff or with a competent QB. His rise with the Saints has been impressive, and he may already be their third WR ahead of Tre’Quan Smith behind only Sanders. 

It caught my eye that his top comparable from Playerprofiler was Kenny Britt. 

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32 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Is that Marquez Callaway?  If so, what do you all think of him overall?  He looked great against the Panthers and then got dinged. He seemed to do it all at Tennessee, but never played for a consistent coaching staff or with a competent QB. His rise with the Saints has been impressive, and he may already be their third WR ahead of Tre’Quan Smith behind only Sanders. 

It caught my eye that his top comparable from Playerprofiler was Kenny Britt. 

Exactly. Sanders is a hurdle, but I’d be surprised if they don’t cut him after next season. I think he’ll be out Smith, if he hasn’t already. There’s a good chance he never amounts to anything substantial, but I like the risk/reward of a 3rd, assuming large rosters. Nobody is going to give you a second, so I’m not really selling. 

I also like Isaiah Wright of the Redskins, speaking of UDFAs with potential. I wouldn’t pay to acquire him right now, but he should be rostered more than he is, IMO. I don’t know if he’ll ever develop into a stable fantasy asset, but he looks like he belongs in the NFL, from an athletic standpoint. He’s a big guy with some wiggle.

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