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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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59 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

where we ranking Hilton compared to a rookie pick these days?  Also, how does it change (if at all) when your draft is going on now compared to when your draft is in late august?

If luck looks healthy later in the offseason he gains value. I’m not sure anyone is giving up a top 5 pick for him, I suppose that depends on who owns the picks and team needs and how they rate the rookies. If Luck looks ready to roll or he’s playing in preseason games I think the top 5 come into play. 

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14 hours ago, dipandglide said:

What is Butt worth in TE premium/2TE leagues? Do you guys believe he'll win the starting job in Denver? I'm on the clock in myffc at 3.07 and am considering him. 

I'd rather take Mark Andrews if he's there.  I think Butt was pretty overrated in terms of how his game would translate anyway, and they have competition there.  Fumagali is a real receiving threat.

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

where we ranking Hilton compared to a rookie pick these days?  Also, how does it change (if at all) when your draft is going on now compared to when your draft is in late august?

Debated it in the Dynasty Trades thread, his owners want the same price as if Luck was his old self and if Hilton wasn't going to turn 30 next season. One guy in the trade thread said he's worth a top 5 pick this year plus an extra 1st. No thank you for the guy that was WR32 in PPG last year. Hilton obviously has major upside if Luck comes back but despite all the coachspeak that Luck will be ready by the start of the season, the dude still isn't throwing a football as of a few days ago. I wouldn't give more than the 9th pick or later which means I won't be owning him anywhere. Luck suffers any setback (and look at the defenses he gets to play against in his division now) or doesn't look like the same guy anymore, and you will be stuck holding the bag on Hilton.

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23 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Anyone have thoughts on Corey Clement?  It doesn't seem likely Ajayi is a full workload guy, Clement showed up in the playoffs and especially in the Super Bowl, not much competition for some work, he seems to be a forgotten COP back but has one of the better opportunities.  

Ajayi is in his final contract year so Clement seems like a good target to acquire. I tried moving him to the owner of Ajayi twice in my draft this week and his response was "Who the hell told you Clement was worth something?" so there's a good chance owners are sleeping on the potential upside in a top offense. Sure, he could be mediocre this year and they draft a better back next year, but I'll take what should be a cheap flier on him. Smallwood & Pumphrey haven't done much and couldn't get ahead of him on the depth chart last year. Blount being allowed to leave is another good indicator that Clement could be seen as the future.

Top offense + solid flash to end 2017 + 1 old RB allowed to leave + 1 RB expiring after the season. <---- nice recipe, that. :D

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

where we ranking Hilton compared to a rookie pick these days?  Also, how does it change (if at all) when your draft is going on now compared to when your draft is in late august?

Easier for me to rank someone relative to their position. Unless I was in a total rebuild I'd take him over every WR in this draft.

I'd take 5 RB's over him for sure, on the fence on that 6th one and would depend on team makeup.

So to summarize right now I'd probably have him as worth player 6-7, but more often than not one my top 5 RB's makes it to 6 or 7 so that might put his value more at 7-8 for me if not doing an OTC trade.

Can't answer the August question, not experienced in impact of rookie drafts with that later date.

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

where we ranking Hilton compared to a rookie pick these days?  Also, how does it change (if at all) when your draft is going on now compared to when your draft is in late august?

I traded my 1.08 + Austin Hooper for him in one of my leagues.

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1 hour ago, Flying Elvis said:

Ajayi is in his final contract year so Clement seems like a good target to acquire. I tried moving him to the owner of Ajayi twice in my draft this week and his response was "Who the hell told you Clement was worth something?" so there's a good chance owners are sleeping on the potential upside in a top offense. Sure, he could be mediocre this year and they draft a better back next year, but I'll take what should be a cheap flier on him. Smallwood & Pumphrey haven't done much and couldn't get ahead of him on the depth chart last year. Blount being allowed to leave is another good indicator that Clement could be seen as the future.

Top offense + solid flash to end 2017 + 1 old RB allowed to leave + 1 RB expiring after the season. <---- nice recipe, that. :D

I had a similar situation that people questioned me.  I drafted him in a rookie/FA draft in the 4th round, and people were asking me why I would do that.  All I told them is that we will see what happens, but exactly like you said, he's cheap, on a great offense, flashed a good bit in his rookie year.  Came up clutch in the Super Bowl at times.  Ajayi is nothing special and they got rid of Blount.  So how exactly is he flying under the radar compared some of these other COP backs like Chris Thompson or Dion Lewis.  I get it that those guys are a little more proven but still what more can you expect for a UDFA RB in what Clement did rather than beat out everyone ahead of him other than Ajayi.  

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15 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I had a similar situation that people questioned me.  I drafted him in a rookie/FA draft in the 4th round, and people were asking me why I would do that.  All I told them is that we will see what happens, but exactly like you said, he's cheap, on a great offense, flashed a good bit in his rookie year.  Came up clutch in the Super Bowl at times.  Ajayi is nothing special and they got rid of Blount.  So how exactly is he flying under the radar compared some of these other COP backs like Chris Thompson or Dion Lewis.  I get it that those guys are a little more proven but still what more can you expect for a UDFA RB in what Clement did rather than beat out everyone ahead of him other than Ajayi.  

I own him in one league (added as FA late last year) and earlier today I made an offer for him in my other. I offered my 4th. lol ... Seems like a reasonable range and I may even give a 3rd since it's 4.03 vs. 3.11 so not a big gap, anyway.

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Maybe it is just me but I think it is that time of the year when a bunch of people on the board have group think on the rookies and tend to overvalue them. Reading through the TY Hilton responses (I get the Luck concerns) I'm surprised how little value people put on him. Looking at startup dynasty ADP in May from a certain website, admittedly small sample of 6 drafts but on average -

Barkley - 6.33

Guice - 33.50

TY Hilton - 34

Seems to me when people are making draft decisions on average they value him at right about 1.2. Most here putting him more like 1.7 which has an ADP of 61

Not saying anyone is right or wrong as I get TY has some QB concerns but in general I think the rookies are being overvalued here, they aren't all going to pan out, there is risk

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2 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Maybe it is just me but I think it is that time of the year when a bunch of people on the board have group think on the rookies and tend to overvalue them. Reading through the TY Hilton responses (I get the Luck concerns) I'm surprised how little value people put on him. Looking at startup dynasty ADP in May from a certain website, admittedly small sample of 6 drafts but on average -

Barkley - 6.33

Guice - 33.50

TY Hilton - 34

Seems to me when people are making draft decisions on average they value him at right about 1.2. Most here putting him more like 1.7 which has an ADP of 61

Not saying anyone is right or wrong as I get TY has some QB concerns but in general I think the rookies are being overvalued here, they aren't all going to pan out, there is risk

But Hilton has risk too.  And a lot of it.  At this point as a Luck owner in multiple leagues I would be pretty shocked if he ever comes back like he was before.  And if that doesn't happen, Hilton is an about to turn 29 years old inconsistent fantasy WR3, which isn't worth much.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

But Hilton has risk too.  And a lot of it.  At this point as a Luck owner in multiple leagues I would be pretty shocked if he ever comes back like he was before.  And if that doesn't happen, Hilton is an about to turn 29 years old inconsistent fantasy WR3, which isn't worth much.

I get it so maybe Hilton is a bad example but let me ask this, if you use your own wr ranks. What wr is worth ~ 1.2 or 1.3 right now? I'm wondering how far down the wr list people are going. Maybe I'm wrong and I just have Hilton ranked higher than most but I'm not sure

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12 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

I get it so maybe Hilton is a bad example but let me ask this, if you use your own wr ranks. What wr is worth ~ 1.2 or 1.3 right now? I'm wondering how far down the wr list people are going. Maybe I'm wrong and I just have Hilton ranked higher than most but I'm not sure

WR is tough right now. Juju is worth the same as 1.2 or 1.3. Corey Davis is close. There's no one outside the top 30 overall who is. There are players like Landry and Watkins that you can add something to get to 1.3 but not straight up.

The mock drafts are based on WR heavy lineups. At the front of the draft you see vet WR being overvalued as people look to fill lineups.

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22 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

I get it so maybe Hilton is a bad example but let me ask this, if you use your own wr ranks. What wr is worth ~ 1.2 or 1.3 right now? I'm wondering how far down the wr list people are going. Maybe I'm wrong and I just have Hilton ranked higher than most but I'm not sure

I guess it really depends on the guy, more than going "down the list" I would be more interested in moving those guys for younger WRs like Cooper/Adams than I would for aging guys like AJG unless I was really on the verge of a title.

This discussion is interesting though because I'm pretty sure I offered you my ARob (who is ranked ahead of Hilton in most rankings) for your 1.02 in one of the leagues we're in together and you rejected it :P.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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5 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

WR is tough right now. Juju is worth the same as 1.2 or 1.3. Corey Davis is close. There's no one outside the top 30 overall who is. There are players like Landry and Watkins that you can add something to get to 1.3 but not straight up.

The mock drafts are based on WR heavy lineups. At the front of the draft you see vet WR being overvalued as people look to fill lineups.

What are people’s thought on Watkins right now?  Reading a few other threads I see people ranking him as a WR2 (13-24 range) with WR1 upside and I see others saying he’s 3rd in the pecking order on his own team behind Hill and Kelce and that he’ll be lucky to sniff WR3 numbers. 

Edited by Boone22

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53 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

What are people’s thought on Watkins right now?  Reading a few other threads I see people ranking him as a WR2 (13-24 range) with WR1 upside and I see others saying he’s 3rd in the pecking order on his own team behind Hill and Kelce and that he’ll be lucky to sniff WR3 numbers. 

I have Watkins ranked at WR22 myself, although that's probably too optimistic.  He's actually right behind TY Hilton.  They are both in the same tier as all the other top RB's from this years class other than Guice and Barkley.  

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1 hour ago, Boone22 said:

What are people’s thought on Watkins right now?  Reading a few other threads I see people ranking him as a WR2 (13-24 range) with WR1 upside and I see others saying he’s 3rd in the pecking order on his own team behind Hill and Kelce and that he’ll be lucky to sniff WR3 numbers. 

Watkins is the type of player I like, but the KC situation adds some risk not just in pecking order but also Mahomes. My assumption is that this year at least Hill and Watkins cancel each other out and make both inconsistent but high upside starts all year. Of course it's not impossible for 2 WR to be relevant with mediocre passing yardage, as Minnesota didn't break 4000 passing yards, had a viable TE and 3rd down RB, and still had 2 good WR. But it certainly helps. He's 1 day older than Cooper Kupp (turns 25 in June) and 18 mos older than Corey Davis so has a lot of career ahead of him unless a future injury reduces his athleticism. Willing to continue to wait it out on him and would value him about WR18.

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On 5/16/2018 at 11:49 AM, Zyphros said:

Anyone have thoughts on Corey Clement?  It doesn't seem likely Ajayi is a full workload guy, Clement showed up in the playoffs and especially in the Super Bowl, not much competition for some work, he seems to be a forgotten COP back but has one of the better opportunities.  

I mentioned him as one of my favorite "throw-in" type targets in another thread and he's my favorite low-level RB target. His receiving ability brought a new element to that offense in the playoffs. He led them in catches vs. ATL and in receiving yards vs. NE.

Seems like that's going to be a committee there, so not worth giving up anything particularly valuable for at this point, but I really like him as a flier, especially in best ball leagues and 14 or 16 teamers. Where even if he's just a 9-10 PPG PPR guy, he could still have solid value. 

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4 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

WR is tough right now. Juju is worth the same as 1.2 or 1.3. Corey Davis is close. There's no one outside the top 30 overall who is. There are players like Landry and Watkins that you can add something to get to 1.3 but not straight up.

The mock drafts are based on WR heavy lineups. At the front of the draft you see vet WR being overvalued as people look to fill lineups.

Would agree, dynamically the position is in heavy transition. You've got the untouchables unless you hugely overpay like Hopkins, OBJ, Allen, and Michael Thomas, but besides that? The former studs have all aged to the point where their trade value could take a major hit with the slightest hint of injury or decline: Antonio, AJG, Julio, DT (already took a hit), Baldwin. Young high-pedigree guys that have disappointed: Evans (trade value hasn't declined much though) & Cooper. A ton of guys whose situation has either changed this offseason, has got question marks, or a lot of competition: Cooks/Kupp/Woods, Tyreek/Watkins, ARob, Adams, Landry, Robby Anderson, Diggs/Thielen, Agholor, Funchess/Moore. At least those guys are mostly still very young.

Hilton, Tate/Jones, Jeffrey are not that young anymore in the 28 and up range. Had Luck never gotten injured we'd be talking about Hilton in his prime right now, instead we're left wondering if his prime may be totally wasted. Maybe Luck will be okay, at which point Hilton's value will skyrocket, but I'll let someone else take that chance unless the price is low enough for me to gamble on it.

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3 hours ago, Dan Hindery said:

I mentioned him as one of my favorite "throw-in" type targets in another thread and he's my favorite low-level RB target. His receiving ability brought a new element to that offense in the playoffs. He led them in catches vs. ATL and in receiving yards vs. NE.

Seems like that's going to be a committee there, so not worth giving up anything particularly valuable for at this point, but I really like him as a flier, especially in best ball leagues and 14 or 16 teamers. Where even if he's just a 9-10 PPG PPR guy, he could still have solid value. 

Agree with this...I like his game...the question is can he go from being a good real football player to a productive fantasy player...looking at the Eagles depth chart he has a great opportunity...there is no dominant RB there...Ajayi should be it but he has his questions...after that you have a group of guys with real big swings in Smallwood, Adams, Sproles, Pumphrey and I guess even Matt Jones...if Clement is what I think he can be that is a group he should be able to beat out...

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Re-signing Sproles seems really bad for Clement's chances to have value this year.

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8 hours ago, Boone22 said:

What are people’s thought on Watkins right now?  

He'll be much better at pulling coverage off Kelce than he will as a WR. 

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On 5/15/2018 at 9:01 PM, Magic_Man said:

What's the value of Jamaal Williams today in PPR? Guy wants my 1.13 pick for him (I also have the 1.14) However, developmental draft league so the 1.13 is not actually the 1.13. I tried to get Alex Collins off him for the 1.13 before, but no dice. Would this be an overpay on Williams? Below are the rookies already spoken for that I would not have a shot at drafting.

J. Allen, R. Jones, Barkley, Chubb, Guice, Rosen, R. Freeman, Kirk, L. Jackson, Darnold, Sutton, Ridley & Rudolph

He added a stipulation that if J Williams doesn't lead GB in carries this year I get his 2nd round pick next year

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1 hour ago, Magic_Man said:

He added a stipulation that if J Williams doesn't lead GB in carries this year I get his 2nd round pick next year

It seems like he's a terrible negotiator and it's a win-win for you now.

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What's Marshawn Lynch worth to a contender with a hole at RB? He looked much better after the suspension last year, and Martin's coming off 2 straight sub 3 YPC seasons and got barely above the vet minimum. 

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3 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

What's Marshawn Lynch worth to a contender with a hole at RB? He looked much better after the suspension last year, and Martin's coming off 2 straight sub 3 YPC seasons and got barely above the vet minimum. 

In PPR not so much. He isn't worth much more than Blount. Lucky to get a 3rd.

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9 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

What's Marshawn Lynch worth to a contender with a hole at RB? He looked much better after the suspension last year, and Martin's coming off 2 straight sub 3 YPC seasons and got barely above the vet minimum. 

He was cut in some FFPC dynasty leagues so was put in rookie/FA draft in some. I saw him going in the mid to high second range in few leagues I saw him available, 3.1 being the latest.

Martin was brought in to compete to be his backup. He's not a threat to Lynch's status but I am really starting to get a feel that Gruden truly plans to treat Lynch like an early down bellcow and run him into the ground which likely means  he may be a big help to your fantasy teams early in the year, not so much later.

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

Re-signing Sproles seems really bad for Clement's chances to have value this year.

And Donnell Pumphrey.

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3 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

In PPR not so much. He isn't worth much more than Blount. Lucky to get a 3rd.

That's pretty surprising to me. I have both and I would feel sick starting Blount any week. Lynch? no sick feelings. 

 

2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

He was cut in some FFPC dynasty leagues so was put in rookie/FA draft in some. I saw him going in the mid to high second range in few leagues I saw him available, 3.1 being the latest.

Martin was brought in to compete to be his backup. He's not a threat to Lynch's status but I am really starting to get a feel that Gruden truly plans to treat Lynch like an early down bellcow and run him into the ground which likely means  he may be a big help to your fantasy teams early in the year, not so much later.

I had late 2nd in mind so that lines up with FFPC, but the 2 teams with good rosters and junk at RB2 (seriously, one guy has Blount at RB2 and one has Stewart, and neither are getting a top 8 rookie) seem to disagree in my main league. Sounds like a better hold and flip early if @thriftyrocker is right about his current value and you are right about his workload. 

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4 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

And Donnell Pumphrey.

And Matt Jones

And Josh Adams

And Correll Buckhalter

TBH I would buy. He (Clement) goes from someone I won't ask for since I assume no one will take a late 2nd to someone I will offer for.

His upside is the same. Uncertainty is based on a best case scenario for the other two players in the committee.

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3 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

That's pretty surprising to me. I have both and I would feel sick starting Blount any week. Lynch? no sick feelings. 

 

I had late 2nd in mind so that lines up with FFPC, but the 2 teams with good rosters and junk at RB2 (seriously, one guy has Blount at RB2 and one has Stewart, and neither are getting a top 8 rookie) seem to disagree in my main league. Sounds like a better hold and flip early if @thriftyrocker is right about his current value and you are right about his workload. 

I'm assuming a deep league where 3rd round picks are kept for at least a year.

I couldn't start him last year. You are betting more TDs will come. I would rather buy Blount for a 5th than Lynch for a 2nd by a lot.

I agree best time to sell is after other guys get injured. His history is durable so holding is a decent bet.

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

Re-signing Sproles seems really bad for Clement's chances to have value this year.

I'm buying Clement for 2019, not for 2018. Sproles only signed for 1 year and is old enough that I doubt he's a threat for 2019, and honestly won't be surprised if he doesn't make the 2018 final 53. 

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26 minutes ago, menobrown said:

He was cut in some FFPC dynasty leagues so was put in rookie/FA draft in some. I saw him going in the mid to high second range in few leagues I saw him available, 3.1 being the latest.

Martin was brought in to compete to be his backup. He's not a threat to Lynch's status but I am really starting to get a feel that Gruden truly plans to treat Lynch like an early down bellcow and run him into the ground which likely means  he may be a big help to your fantasy teams early in the year, not so much later.

How do we know that?

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48 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I'm assuming a deep league where 3rd round picks are kept for at least a year.

I couldn't start him last year. You are betting more TDs will come. I would rather buy Blount for a 5th than Lynch for a 2nd by a lot.

I agree best time to sell is after other guys get injured. His history is durable so holding is a decent bet.

Nah, I think you're just betting you are getting 2nd half of 2017 Lynch instead of first half. Lynch was a totally different player from week 9 and was a low RB1 over the 2nd half. I grabbed him for a 3rd when he got suspended week 8 and he was a very good starter while Zeke was out for me.

32 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How do we know that?

Because he got 1/4 what Lynch is getting paid with nothing guaranteed and hasn't averaged 3 ypc in a couple years. Plus Gruden has said they plan to ride beast mode (not that April coach speak means anything).

ETA - We don't KNOW it, but money definitely suggests they value Lynch more. They could have cut Lynch with no dead cap after signing Martin, but they held on to him for $5m+ this year. 

Edited by jtd13

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46 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

And Matt Jones

And Josh Adams

And Correll Buckhalter

TBH I would buy. He (Clement) goes from someone I won't ask for since I assume no one will take a late 2nd to someone I will offer for.

His upside is the same. Uncertainty is based on a best case scenario for the other two players in the committee.

I didn't know Bonghogger was still in the league. :D

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

How do we know that?

We all might process the information differently but based on what I've  read and listened to various takes from multiple sources I fully believe that is the plan.  Here is one article which kind of sums up a lot of it: We want to go Beast Mode this year

That link is a paysite, I'll help:

Raiders general manager Reggie McKezie tipped his hand with the whole “Will Marshawn Lynch be back or not?” issue when he was spotted at the NFL combine workouts three weeks ago wearing a “Beast Mode” T-shirt.

“I can’t believe they caught me with that,” McKenzie said Monday at the NFL annual meeting. “I had a jacket on … but they saw that emblem.”

McKenzie guaranteed the money in Lynch’s deal last week and he said it’s important having the power back returning to handle most of the carries next season.

“It means a lot,” McKenzie said. “Number one, it means that he really wants to be here and be a part of this. And I think it means a lot to the locker room, the offense in particular, that we have full intentions on being a physical offensive football team under Jon Gruden.”

There had been some reports that Lynch may be cut.

“That was blown out of proportion by you guys,” McKenzie said. “We want to go Beast Mode this year.”

McKenzie said the addition of bruising fullback Keith Smith will also help Lynch a lot.

— On new backup running back Doug Martin: “If we can get the Doug Martin of a couple of years ago, we’re getting a really good back. This is his opportunity to compete for a job with the guys we got. Nobody is going to just have a job given to them. We want to bring out the best in the guys that we have here and the guys that we bring in.”

 

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Eagles had pre-draft visits with Guice, Penny and RoJo. They resigned Sproles (including $1M in guaranteed money?), brought Terence West in for a visit a week ago but then went and signed Matt Jones a few days ago. Pumphrey is coming back from injury. Just seems like a giant mess of a backfield.

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2 hours ago, Buckna said:

Eagles had pre-draft visits with Guice, Penny and RoJo. They resigned Sproles (including $1M in guaranteed money?), brought Terence West in for a visit a week ago but then went and signed Matt Jones a few days ago. Pumphrey is coming back from injury. Just seems like a giant mess of a backfield.

Glass half full vs. half empty....

They did all of that (which is all normal pre-draft work) then chose not to draft a RB at all in the entire draft. Clement already beat Pumphrey (4th rd pick) and Smallwood (5th rd pick) for the #2 job. Matt Jones couldn't stick with the Colts behind Gore, a busted Marlon Mack, and gaggle of Seahawks rejects. Again, nothing is certain but this is a RB that the coaches (who aren't going anywhere anytime soon) already gave the vote of confidence last year and then again this year with the RBs they DIDN'T bring in to camp.

The recipe is there and we're probably looking at a late 3rd or even 4th round pick to snatch him away from his current team. The RBs going in the draft at that range are:

Kelly, John
Wilkins, Jordan
Walton, Mark
Scarbrough, Bo
Jackson, Justin
Smith, Ito

With all the factors considered, I'll take Clement over that every time. Philly was #5 in rushing last season and a top 10 offense overall, and Clement looks like the type of RB that can be a 3 down back. No small stature that immediately puts him into the COP category. Seems like a smart lottery ticket to me. Pumphrey is minor concern because, even if he returns to top form, he is listed at 176 pounds.... that's classic COP territory. 

 

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45 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Glass half full vs. half empty....

They did all of that (which is all normal pre-draft work) then chose not to draft a RB at all in the entire draft. Clement already beat Pumphrey (4th rd pick) and Smallwood (5th rd pick) for the #2 job. Matt Jones couldn't stick with the Colts behind Gore, a busted Marlon Mack, and gaggle of Seahawks rejects. Again, nothing is certain but this is a RB that the coaches (who aren't going anywhere anytime soon) already gave the vote of confidence last year and then again this year with the RBs they DIDN'T bring in to camp.

The recipe is there and we're probably looking at a late 3rd or even 4th round pick to snatch him away from his current team. The RBs going in the draft at that range are:

Kelly, John
Wilkins, Jordan
Walton, Mark
Scarbrough, Bo
Jackson, Justin
Smith, Ito

With all the factors considered, I'll take Clement over that every time. Philly was #5 in rushing last season and a top 10 offense overall, and Clement looks like the type of RB that can be a 3 down back. No small stature that immediately puts him into the COP category. Seems like a smart lottery ticket to me. Pumphrey is minor concern because, even if he returns to top form, he is listed at 176 pounds.... that's classic COP territory. 

 

I agree, I'm a bit surprised how little people want to take a shot at the current #2 in a fairly open backfield on one of the league's best offenses.  People have been paying a lot more to chase whatever random Packers or Patriots RB they could find for years.

I think in the end, whether it's Ajayi or Clement or both, I think we'll all be looking back on this wondering why anyone ever considered that bunch of might-barely-make-the-roster scrubs to be any kind of threat or "mess".

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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2 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Glass half full vs. half empty....

They did all of that (which is all normal pre-draft work) then chose not to draft a RB at all in the entire draft. Clement already beat Pumphrey (4th rd pick) and Smallwood (5th rd pick) for the #2 job. Matt Jones couldn't stick with the Colts behind Gore, a busted Marlon Mack, and gaggle of Seahawks rejects. Again, nothing is certain but this is a RB that the coaches (who aren't going anywhere anytime soon) already gave the vote of confidence last year and then again this year with the RBs they DIDN'T bring in to camp.

The recipe is there and we're probably looking at a late 3rd or even 4th round pick to snatch him away from his current team.

The Eagles had 1 pick in the first 3 rounds total with only 5 total picks overall. After trading down and acquiring a future 2nd and no picks in the current draft, they then traded back up again in the 2nd to fill the hole left by Burton leaving (5 RB's were already off the board by then as well.) After that they didn't pick again until the 4th round when the RB pickings were sparse. They never had a chance to draft Penny who they interviewed. RoJo was drafted before they came up again, they passed on Guice but so did a ####-ton of other teams. Considering they had barely any picks to start with, I'd hardly call them not taking a RB in the draft an endorsement of their current roster, especially considering they immediately brought in multiple other guys and signed two of them once the draft concluded.

 

Highly doubt anyone is giving him away for essentially free, everyone saw what Clement did in the Superbowl and everyone knows Ajayi is in a contract year.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree, I'm a bit surprised how little people want to take a shot at the current #2 in a fairly open backfield on one of the league's best offenses.  People have been paying a lot more to chase whatever random Packers or Patriots RB they could find for years.

I think in the end, whether it's Ajayi or Clement or both, I think we'll all be looking back on this wondering why anyone ever considered that bunch of might-barely-make-the-roster scrubs to be any kind of threat or "mess".

I think we'll be looking back on this and wondering which RB the Eagles will be drafting with that extra 2nd rounder in 2019.

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8 hours ago, menobrown said:

We all might process the information differently but based on what I've  read and listened to various takes from multiple sources I fully believe that is the plan.  Here is one article which kind of sums up a lot of it: We want to go Beast Mode this year

That link is a paysite, I'll help:

Raiders general manager Reggie McKezie tipped his hand with the whole “Will Marshawn Lynch be back or not?” issue when he was spotted at the NFL combine workouts three weeks ago wearing a “Beast Mode” T-shirt.

“I can’t believe they caught me with that,” McKenzie said Monday at the NFL annual meeting. “I had a jacket on … but they saw that emblem.”

McKenzie guaranteed the money in Lynch’s deal last week and he said it’s important having the power back returning to handle most of the carries next season.

“It means a lot,” McKenzie said. “Number one, it means that he really wants to be here and be a part of this. And I think it means a lot to the locker room, the offense in particular, that we have full intentions on being a physical offensive football team under Jon Gruden.”

There had been some reports that Lynch may be cut.

“That was blown out of proportion by you guys,” McKenzie said. “We want to go Beast Mode this year.”

McKenzie said the addition of bruising fullback Keith Smith will also help Lynch a lot.

— On new backup running back Doug Martin: “If we can get the Doug Martin of a couple of years ago, we’re getting a really good back. This is his opportunity to compete for a job with the guys we got. Nobody is going to just have a job given to them. We want to bring out the best in the guys that we have here and the guys that we bring in.”

 

Beast mode looked washed up three seasons ago...  I have a hard time seeing sustained success (without an injury or other implosion) here...  Now he is 32?  Not buying unless I found out they're Magic Skittles.

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7 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

Glass half full vs. half empty....

They did all of that (which is all normal pre-draft work) then chose not to draft a RB at all in the entire draft. Clement already beat Pumphrey (4th rd pick) and Smallwood (5th rd pick) for the #2 job. Matt Jones couldn't stick with the Colts behind Gore, a busted Marlon Mack, and gaggle of Seahawks rejects. Again, nothing is certain but this is a RB that the coaches (who aren't going anywhere anytime soon) already gave the vote of confidence last year and then again this year with the RBs they DIDN'T bring in to camp.

The recipe is there and we're probably looking at a late 3rd or even 4th round pick to snatch him away from his current team. The RBs going in the draft at that range are:

Kelly, John
Wilkins, Jordan
Walton, Mark
Scarbrough, Bo
Jackson, Justin
Smith, Ito

With all the factors considered, I'll take Clement over that every time. Philly was #5 in rushing last season and a top 10 offense overall, and Clement looks like the type of RB that can be a 3 down back. No small stature that immediately puts him into the COP category. Seems like a smart lottery ticket to me. Pumphrey is minor concern because, even if he returns to top form, he is listed at 176 pounds.... that's classic COP territory. 

 

Great post...Clement has a great opportunity...he is by no means a definite but his competition could be far worst...everyone else in that backfield has their warts...he may never have a better chance in his career to establish himself...

Edited by Boston

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On 5/15/2018 at 9:01 PM, Magic_Man said:

What's the value of Jamaal Williams today in PPR? Guy wants my 1.13 pick for him & his 2019 2nd.

However, developmental draft league so the 1.13 is not actually the 1.13. I tried to get Alex Collins off him for the 1.13 before, but no dice. Would this be an overpay on Williams? Below are the rookies already spoken for that I would not have a shot at drafting.

J. Allen, R. Jones, Barkley, Chubb, Guice, Rosen, R. Freeman, Kirk, L. Jackson, Darnold, Sutton, Ridley & Rudolph

Well, he sweetened the deal. Now it's Williams & his 2019 2nd for my 1.13 this year

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23 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I agree, I'm a bit surprised how little people want to take a shot at the current #2 in a fairly open backfield on one of the league's best offenses.  People have been paying a lot more to chase whatever random Packers or Patriots RB they could find for years.

I think in the end, whether it's Ajayi or Clement or both, I think we'll all be looking back on this wondering why anyone ever considered that bunch of might-barely-make-the-roster scrubs to be any kind of threat or "mess".

I’ve been buying Clement everywhere I can this offseason.  I loved what I saw out of him last season and there is a lot of upside in that offense 

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21 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

Well, he sweetened the deal. Now it's Williams & his 2019 2nd for my 1.13 this year

I’d hold the pick. Williams may end up beig the best on the roster but even that isn’t a given. If he is in fact the best on the roster, won’t be for long. 

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3 hours ago, JPeso said:

I’d hold the pick. Williams may end up beig the best on the roster but even that isn’t a given. If he is in fact the best on the roster, won’t be for long. 

I agree with you that the offer isn't strong enough to act on. Pick 13 according to my list would be Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup or Courtland Sutton (if I am not picking Gesicki or Lamar Jackson there). While I only see these WR as having tier two type upside, that is still pretty valuable in my view and more valuable than than Williams. The 13th overall pick could make an impact to the roster this year, or if not at least be a year further in their development than the 2019 2nd round pick would be. When you consider the time value discount that 2nd round pick in 2019 is closer to 3rd round type value.

That said if Williams is the starting RB for Green Bay ( I am not sure about that as I do like Aaron Jones slightly more than Williams) they might not be looking to replace him (or Jones) that soon. I have talked about this a bit in the Williams/Jones threads last year.

Here is the draft history of the Packers at the RB position since 2000

2017    4    134    Jamaal Williams    RB    22    2017    2017    0    0    0    7    16    7    153    556    4    25    262    2    BYU    
2017    5    182    Aaron Jones    RB    22    2017    2017    0    0    0    3    12    4    81    448    4    9    22    0    Texas-El Paso    
2017    7    238    Devante Mays    RB    23    2017    2017    0    0    0    0    8    0    4    1    0    3    0    0    Utah St.    
2015    6    206    Aaron Ripkowski    FB    22    2015    2017    0    0    1    2    47    10    39    163    2    17    103    1    Oklahoma    
2013    2    61    Eddie Lacy    RB    23    2013    2017    0    1    3    36    60    51    857    3614    23    107    947    6    Alabama    
2013    4    125    Johnathan Franklin    RB    23    2013    2013    0    0    0    1    11    0    19    107    1    4    30    0    UCLA    
2011    3    96    Alex Green    RB    23    2011    2013    0    0    0    5    29    4    149    510    0    21    139    0    Hawaii    
2010    6    193    James Starks    RB    24    2010    2016    0    0    0    27    76    13    618    2506    9    125    1017    6    Buffalo    
2009    5    145    Quinn Johnson    RB    22    2009    2013    0    0    1    0    44    13    4    5    0    13    100    0    LSU    
2007    2    63    Brandon Jackson    RB    21    2007    2012    0    0    1    16    54    16    355    1383    7    112    864    2    Nebraska    
2007    7    228    DeShawn Wynn    RB    23    2007    2010    0    0    0    3    23    4    64    332    5    14    122    0    Florida    
2002    4    135    Najeh Davenport    RB    23    2002    2008    0    0    0    18    73    3    394    1819    13    54    538    3    Miami (FL)    
2000    7    252    Rondell Mealey    RB    23    2001    2002    0    0    0    2    14    1    22    73    1    9    76    0    LSU    

What the Packers did last season drafting Williams and Jones mirrors what they did in 2013 when they drafted Lacy and Franklin. They did not go back to the RB well until Lacys rookie contract expired. They didn't draft any RB in 2018 (despite it being a very good draft for the RB position) showing their commitment to this longer term planning (imo) and being satisfied with the players they added last season. The 2019 draft is not expected to be very strong at the RB position just another wrinkle supporting the possibility that the Packers do not select RB next season either. 

If Williams/Jones/Mays are good enough in their view, they might not be looking to add RB until 2021 when these rookie contracts will be expired.

Green Bay also not known for adding players in free agency as much as other teams, although this perspective may have changed with the new GM now.

So even if Williams and Jones are not top level RB talents, the Packers may not be looking to upgrade the position for a couple more seasons yet, unless they really faceplant I suppose. Based on early returns from both players and them not drafting any RB this year, those RB may still have more staying power with the team than they would with other teams looking to upgrade that position more frequently than the history of the Packers has been.

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Reference point for OBJ value.

OBJ owner turned down two offers:

Jordan Reed, Derrick Henry, 1.04, 2.01, 2019 mid first.

and

1.05, 1.06, and AJ Green

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How do you all value young WRs that have already broken out in terms of draft picks, but are behind OBJ/Hopkins? For example, D.Adams, ARob, M.Thomas.

I've seen Leveon Bell go for three semi-random future firsts. What would one of these WRs go for in terms of random 1st, likely early 1st(s), likely late 1sts?

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4 hours ago, Lott's Fingertip said:

How do you all value young WRs that have already broken out in terms of draft picks, but are behind OBJ/Hopkins? For example, D.Adams, ARob, M.Thomas.

I've seen Leveon Bell go for three semi-random future firsts. What would one of these WRs go for in terms of random 1st, likely early 1st(s), likely late 1sts?

I think Adams is a fluke.  He's outside the top12 WR's for me.  I think in terms of picks, Michael Thomas should be worthy of 1.02 + more, and Arob is about equal to 1.02.  I'm a fan of both of them.  Thomas is likely underappreciated by the dynasty community since he seems to be a quiet producer.  But that's all he does, is produce.  Arob is harder to be confident on but he's part of that godly class of WR's (along with Adams), and produced a lot earlier in his career than Adams did, Arob is also the youngest of the bunch. 

The only issue is what type of offense is Nagy going to run in Chicago, we assume it's an ascending one, but it could easily go the other way as well.  Nobody really knows how good Trubisky is going to be.  He could be a worse Bortles (hard to do).  Adams has things going in his favor too playing with Rodgers and not much for competition in targets.  I'd put him around 1.04-1.06 depending on who is there, but I just don't like him.  I wouldn't fault someone for swapping Adams and Arob in terms of outlook or optimism of their upcoming seasons.  Thomas is the best of this bunch though.  

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On 5/18/2018 at 9:43 AM, jtd13 said:

What's Marshawn Lynch worth to a contender with a hole at RB? He looked much better after the suspension last year, and Martin's coming off 2 straight sub 3 YPC seasons and got barely above the vet minimum. 

I'm concerned about Gruden turning Oakland into a total **** show, but assuming they are mediocre, I think he's worth at least a late 2nd in a position of need. But I'd still be looking for another back. He was healthy last year, but a lot of people mistakenly thought he was done in 2015 due to his lingering back injury. At 32, a back injury could easily resurface. 

On 5/18/2018 at 9:54 AM, thriftyrocker said:

In PPR not so much. He isn't worth much more than Blount. Lucky to get a 3rd.

This is crazy talk. Lynch put up 625/5 rushing and 16/114 receiving in the last 8 games. Blount is in a crowded backfield with a relatively highly drafted rookie and has never had 16 receptions in 16 games. Lynch has less competition and a better history of receptions. And FWIW, I've always been a big Blount fan.

That being said, the average Lynch seller is probably only going to get a third. However, the question was what's his worth to a contender with a need a RB... in that case, it's more than a third. 

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