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Tyreek Hill

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2 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Agree with all this. 110 targets makes a fair projection. 

So there's a computation error as to how this makes Hill a 3rd round pick in the area of Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery, ahead of Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, and Larry Fitzgerald. Barring injury, all of these guys will see more than 110 targets. I know Hill has talent, but so do the aforementioned. It's not realistic imo to count on Hill to have so much more efficiency than them. Unless you count on the same rushing and special teams involvement, not to mention immense success in those areas. 

 

 

Well Hill will definitely have more carries than any of those guys. No question about it.  Carries are also, by definition, higher efficiency than targets because they seldom fail to get the ball in the hands of the intended player.

I would say that, on top of the 110 targets you should pencil in around 15-20 carries and work from there.

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16 minutes ago, MattFancy said:

Don't disagree. I think where Hill gets a bump up is that he has a chance for a homerun every time he touches the ball. Yes, his YPC last year was pretty low, but I think he could increase that from 9.7.

He's certainly an interesting pick in drafts this year. I can see why people are shying away from him at his current ADP, but at the same time, he still could wind up with solid WR2 numbers.

I would love for Hill to fall to the 5th/6th so I could get him, reach for him there. The upside gives a tingly feeling. But I will never take him ahead of a WR like Diggs. 

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17 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Well Hill will definitely have more carries than any of those guys. No question about it.  Carries are also, by definition, higher efficiency than targets because they seldom fail to get the ball in the hands of the intended player.

I would say that, on top of the 110 targets you should pencil in around 15-20 carries and work from there.

Another issue for me. 

Last year Hill did not have the role of WR #1. As such, I don't see a repeat of the rushing attempts, nor a repeat of his almost 10 ypc, a pretty crazy number.

I'll stretch it to project in 100 yards rushing for him, and a TD. 

 

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6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Another issue for me. 

Last year Hill did not have the role of WR #1. As such, I don't see a repeat of the rushing attempts, nor a repeat of his almost 10 ypc, a pretty crazy number.

I'll stretch it to project in 100 yards rushing for him, and a TD. 

 

Sounds about right to me. I don't see 27 carries again but 16 carries seems reasonable. And maybe a handful of KR/PRs when KC needs a spark.

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1 hour ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

How comfortable are you with having him as a WR2 in PPR?

He finished WR5 last year in my .5 ppr return yardage league. So I feel pretty good with him in WR2/flex. 

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On 8/23/2017 at 3:29 PM, Bigboy10182000 said:

How comfortable are you with having him as a WR2 in PPR?

I'd feel pretty good about it. He averaged 7 receptions per game when Maclin was out last year.

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On 8/23/2017 at 11:19 AM, greedygoat said:

I'll take the over.

the 4 guys that do projections on this site (Dodds, Henry, Wood, Tremblay) are projecting him to rush for 223, 230, 141, 205). Average of 199.75yds as a consensus projection.

Edited by tsarc888

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13 minutes ago, tsarc888 said:

the 4 guys that do projections on this site (Dodds, Henry, Wood, Tremblay) are projecting him to rush for 223, 230, 141, 205). 

Which is precisely why I'm willing to bet he goes over 100 yards.

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I can't get a handle on his ADP.  I'm in a league with small return yards.  However TD's are 6 but more than likely if it's over 50 yards it's a 5 point bonus.  So even two return TD's is an extra 22 points on projections not to mention the 1 per 25 yards returned.

 

My DD has him 28th in these settings. and his expected draft position per the DD shows 45th

Where has he been going in your leagues?

I pick 6th, been hoping for him at 43 but it's no guarantee and I'm not sure I want to take him 30th.

 

 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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3 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I can't get a handle on his ADP.  I'm in a league with small return yards.  However TD's are 6 but more than likely if it's over 50 yards it's a 5 point bonus.  So even two return TD's is an extra 22 points on projections not to mention the 1 per 25 yards returned.

 

My DD has him 28th and his expected draft position per the DD shows 45th

Where has he been going in your mock.

I pick 6th, been hoping for him at 43 but it's no guarantee and I'm not sure I want to take him 30th.

 

 

In a .5 PPR last weekend he went in the mid-3rd round.  Probably a bit of a reach, and there was 1 keeper per team (kept with corresponding round attached), but ... I was also set to take him at 3.11 or 4.2 depending on how much I wanted to gamble.

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In my new dynasty start up he went 4.09 or 45th over all. I then immediately traded for him. I was going to take him in the 5th round. 

In my 10 team redraft league I took him 4.08 or 38th overall. He was going to be the picked by the owner right behind me. It's a return league......

 

His ADP is probably rising......but it will get to a point where he's not much of a value anymore....

Edited by Milkman
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There's a guy on youtube named Brett Kollman who puts together some of the best player analysis I've seen. His analysis of Hill is a much watch IMO.

I essentially don't think there's a way for Hill to #### the bed and under perform his ADP. Whether or not he hits his ceiling depends on Smith though.

The more I look at it the more I want some exposure to Hill this year at his price. 

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On 8/27/2017 at 5:52 PM, Judge Smails said:

Got him at 5.05 in my 12 teamer yesterday as WR3 and am thrilled.  Some big, big plays coming.

pretty tough to pass up the upside at that pick. Not sure who else was available but I know I'd of been mighty tempted as well.

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42 minutes ago, Judge Smails said:

not a hard choice. The next 4 picks were Paul Perkins, Terrence West, Adrian Peterson and Sammy Watkins

That's a no-brainer.

17 minutes ago, Bigboy10182000 said:

Anyone get him and Hunt? If so, how do you feel about that?

It shouldn't matter as long as they were the best players available. For instance, if I hypothetically drafted Hunt in the 4th and I have to choose between Hill, Perkins, West, AP and Watkins in the 5th, of course I'm going with Hill and not even thinking twice about owning a Chief already.

I have teams with Bell and Bryant, Cook and Diggs and etc. I don't mind starting players on the same team I just understand that I've exposed myself to more systemic risk if said players offense underperforms on any given week.

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I think his last pre-season game put a damper on his value and lessened his ADP some; no one will be reaching. He didn't look good as passes were dropped and nothing exciting happened. Is he a true #1 WR? Probably not. Will he get used and score TD's, probably so. I'm buying, but not reaching... Have him in a Flex position in one league and may do the same in another.

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On 25.8.2017 at 10:16 PM, SameSongNDance said:

There's a guy on youtube named Brett Kollman who puts together some of the best player analysis I've seen. His analysis of Hill is a much watch IMO.

I essentially don't think there's a way for Hill to #### the bed and under perform his ADP. Whether or not he hits his ceiling depends on Smith though.

The more I look at it the more I want some exposure to Hill this year at his price. 

Kind of was hoping Kollman's films would be unnoticed :P

No really, he's just so amazing that I think everyone should watch every film he has made, just quality stuff! Forget the movies next time, open up your computer and take your girfriend to your arms and start enjoying to show :popcorn:  you will both love it, that's how good it is.

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20 minutes ago, Fireinside said:

Kind of was hoping Kollman's films would be unnoticed :P

No really, he's just so amazing that I think everyone should watch every film he has made, just quality stuff! Forget the movies next time, open up your computer and take your girfriend to your arms and start enjoying to show :popcorn:  you will both love it, that's how good it is.

Kollman isn't critical enough, he's a YouTube cheerleader which is great for getting views, not so great if you are trying to differentiate the overhyped vs value plays.

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On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 11:22 PM, Bigboy10182000 said:

Anyone get him and Hunt? If so, how do you feel about that? 

YES, in my .5 ppr (3RR) redraft started Bell, Gronk, Demarrias Thomas  and I took Hunt at 4:01 and Hill at 5:10, Mixon at 6:01 and Diggs at 7:10 so I'm very excited!

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On 31.8.2017 at 11:38 AM, TripItUp said:

Kollman isn't critical enough, he's a YouTube cheerleader which is great for getting views, not so great if you are trying to differentiate the overhyped vs value plays.

Yes, my point exactly. No need to watch him, useless information.

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On 8/31/2017 at 4:38 AM, TripItUp said:

Kollman isn't critical enough, he's a YouTube cheerleader which is great for getting views, not so great if you are trying to differentiate the overhyped vs value plays.

I never heard of the guy, but watched a few videos of his, I thought they were well put together and the videos had some good tidbits of information.

I'm not sure what kind of "insider information" or differentiating points you are looking for, to help you determine if a player is over hyped or a value play.

Edited by Fantasy Fool

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In my 12 team Super-flex, PPR redraft yesterday Hill went @ 6.3 as the #21 WR on the board. He is the #3 WR on that squad (mine) behind Julio and M.Evans.

WRs who went immediately before Hill were D.Adams, Fitz & Martavis. WRs who were still on the board A.Robinson, G.Tate, E.Sanders & K.Benjamin. The only one I may have considered over Hill for year end production is K.Benjamin but I was hoping he would fall another round.

You know that point in the mid rounds of the every draft where you see a guy falling and you start to hold your breath that the fall lasts until it's your pick? That type of excitement/anxiety where you try not to hope, then dare to hope, then pray? That was Hill for me this year.  Love that about draft day.

This is one of several threads that I really appreciate for helping inform my own opinions about a player. Love that about the SP. Thrilled to have this guy as my #3 WR thanks to this thread.

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On 8/27/2017 at 11:58 AM, tsarc888 said:

I think the Ware injury and moving Hunt into starting role will protect Hills floor in terms of rushing attempts. They will need to keep using him some now.

How does this help his floor /rushing attempts???? Hunt is a better a all around rb than Ware.

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22 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

Tyreek over KB and AR15? I don't get the logic there. What excites you?

I like Tyreek over A.Robinson for a lot of reasons. First I am jaded because I invested in Robinson last year as my #1 WR so I am a little biased. However, practically speaking I think huge changes are coming for the Jax offense that will negatively impact the passing game, even in late game blowout losses. Plus I am still not convinced Robinson is even the best WR on his offense. I would not be shocked if M.Lee finishes with similar, or better numbers by years end (again).  Finally, and I should have started with this, I simply think Hill has more talent and is in an offense that will score more, win more games and has a coach willing to deploy him creatively when defenses shut down any specific part of his game. He's just better than Robinson.

I took Tyreek over K.Benjamin for two reasons 1) I thought Benjamin had a chance to fall to my next pick and there is no way Tyreek would. Didn't happen with KB. 2) I already had Julio and M.Evans to provide week-over-week consistency at WR so I wanted a guy who provided the most potential crazy upside. If I didn't already have my first two WRs I may have pulled the trigger on Benjamin.

Plus, again, I love how Reid is willing to get super-creative with how he deploys Hill. He seems more matchup proof than the other options.

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I took him as WR14 in my 14 team, 0.5PPR, no return points league.

Last season, Hill score 10.7ppg in our scoring system, and he played only 40% of the snaps. With Maclin's departure, and Hill's promotion to starter, I expect 80% of snaps on a per game basis. Last year he had a high utilization rate (rushes+targets)/snaps or 25.5%, and I expect that to drop to around 20%. 10.7 x (80%/40%) x (20%/25.5%) comes out to 16.7 ppg, which would have put him in the top 3 in my league.

Looking under more of a microscope...

As a rookie, he played 16 games, but only started 1. His rushing stats were 24/267/3 and his receiving stats were 61/83 = 73% catch rate, 593 yards, 9.7 Y/R, 6 TDs.

He'll have more rushes and he'll have more targets: Hill only played 418 (40%) offensive snaps last season, and had a relatively high usage rate of 25.5% (rushes+targets)/snaps. Maclin has left and Hill is an undisputed starter. Given a healthy season, I'd expect a ridiculously hard floor of Hill playing 60% of the snaps, but it'll likely be closer to 80%+ of snaps. That said, his usage rate is likely to decrease from 25.5%, maybe to 20%. Those ranges results in estimates of 29-38 rushes and 99-132 targets.

He'll have better Y/R: Last year there were a ton of passes to Hill when he was behind the LOS, and he was ranked 113th in the league in Y/R. Given the departure of Maclin, Tyreek will be playing from more positions and running a higher percentage of intermediate and deep routes. I expect his Y/R to go up 2-3 yards. 12.5 Y/R would put him around 60th in the league, and it's not a crazy expectation to think he'd be in the same range as Jamison Crowder, Corey Coleman, or Jermaine Kearse in terms of Y/R. At the same time, with longer routes, we should expect his catch rate to drop, maybe to the 65% range.

It's likely he can't sustain 11y/a rushing, so let's consider the ranges from 6-9y/a.

He had an insane touchdown rate last season, likely unsustainable. But at 50-100% more snaps this year, I'll keep his TDs at 8-12.

Using those numbers, my ranges are 29/174 - 38/342 rushes/yards, and 64/804 - 86/1072, and 8-12 TDs. The midpoint estimates (70% of snaps, 20% utilization rate, 65% catch rate, 7.5 YPC, 12.5 Y/R) feel reasonable, and result in 34 rushes for 251 yards, 75 receptions for 938 yards, and 10 TDs. That's a weekly rate of 13.5 fppg with my league rules, good for WR9 last season. Bumping to 80% of snaps, 9Y/C puts him at 14.9 fppg, on par with WR5 TY Hilton at 15.0fppg.

 

It wouldn't be surprising if Reid decided to use Hill out of the backfield more than he did last season. It wouldn't be surprising if Ware's injury and slightly less depth at the position resulted in more touches from the backfield.

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Quote

Tyreek Hill is expected to be "heavily included" in the offensive game plan against the Patriots on Thursday, according to Steve Wyche of NFL Network.

The report adds Hill could be used in the slot, out wide, at tail back and even as a wishbone back, but he is not expected to return kicks. With the Chiefs now thin at back due to the Spencer Ware (knee) injury, it sounds like coach Andy Reid may look for other options to move the ball down the field besides rookie Kareem Hunt. Hill's sub-par preseason does stand out, but his opportunity makes him a high-upside WR2 play to start the season.

 

Edited by Faust
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On ‎8‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 11:22 PM, Bigboy10182000 said:

Anyone get him and Hunt? If so, how do you feel about that? 

I tried but was just beat out getting to Hunt.

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Hitched my wagon to hill as my wr2 in my big money redraft non ppr league and I'm TENTATIVELY juiced about it.  Took him in the 4th.  Passed on davante Adams who I really like this year.  The upsides too much to resist.  

Heres hoping he isn't coradrrelle Patterson 2.0!

eta - I guess we'll find out tonight!  Lol 

Edited by rickyg

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Ditto on hitching my wagon to Hill as my WR2 in a 14 team PPR league -- took him in the 4th at 18th overall after guys like Dem. Thomas, Cooks, Jeffrey, and before guys like Diggs, Davante Adams, Crabtree, and Keenan Allen.

While it's true he did not have a #1 WR role last year, he absolutely does now. And while it's true that his game/skill set isn't prototypical for a WR1, he's a dangerous weapon from any spot on the field, and one that the Chiefs are going to have to use as much or more given the lack of quality WR depth. He doesn't really have the same type of competition like Diggs (Thielen), Adams (Nelson, Cobb), Crabs (Cooper), and Allen (Williams, Benjamin) do in offenses that can spread the ball around.

While it is true Hill can be considered a WR2 on his team behind Kelce, I think the way teams scheme to limit Kelce opens up a lot of potential for targets and success for Hill. 

I'm betting on the upside here with Hill -- he was simply electric last year, and rather than see indications that he will be used less/differently than last year where he put up gaudy numbers to make him the 7th WR overall in my league's scoring last year, seems to be indication he will be used the same/more this year. That (and having Cooper and DeVante Parker as WR1 and 3 on my squad) is more than enough risk mitigation for me.

There will likely be games where he disappears, but the proven upside is just too juicy to pass up. The main risk I see is that my league counts return yards -- Hill had 973 combined yards (punt and kick) and 3 TDs last year, and if he isn't involved in that aspect of the game, and can't make it up elsewhere, that puts a damper on the ceiling.

 

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On 8/28/2017 at 9:22 PM, Bigboy10182000 said:

Anyone get him and Hunt? If so, how do you feel about that? 

I did, and pretty optimistic on both for the season... although more confident in Hunt tonight. Not starting both AT New England, so I stuck with Hunt (just in case the Chiefs lay an egg... hate to drag that mojo into opening weekend).

Also would like to wait until I see Hill in a starting WR01 role. Also hoping that Alex Smith is feeling the pressure to get that ball down the field now.

Edited by Dizzy

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Exciting play-maker that will get used in more ways than anyone, minus the kick return stuff I am hearing?

 

That being said who does Belichick want to take out of the game the most? Is it Kelce, Hunt, or Hill?

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2 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Exciting play-maker that will get used in more ways than anyone, minus the kick return stuff I am hearing?

 

That being said who does Belichick want to take out of the game the most? Is it Kelce, Hunt, or Hill?

He can take out both and force KC to beat them with Conley/their RBs.

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Hill will be the focal point of Belichick's gameplan, guaranteed. But he'll also get his. Predicting 8 catches for 80 yards and a TD (in garbage time). That's 22 points in PPR. Yummmmmmmmm.

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Just now, ATB said:

Hill will be the focal point of Belichick's gameplan, guaranteed. But he'll also get his. Predicting 8 catches for 80 yards and a TD (in garbage time). That's 22 points in PPR. Yummmmmmmmm.

Quote

According to Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald, the Patriots will focus on "taking away/limiting" Travis Kelce in Week 1.

Per Howe, he'll be shadowed by safety Patrick Chung all night. The Patriots have also installed packages to help Chung in coverage if necessary. If New England succeeds in containing Kelce, it could open up more looks for Tyreek Hill downfield.

It's a beat writer take but if so then Hill's night might be pretty good if Kelce is taking up a lot of attention.

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17 minutes ago, CentralPA said:

It's a beat writer take but if so then Hill's night might be pretty good if Kelce is taking up a lot of attention.

Interesting - I heard exactly the opposite.  Take at Hill and force Kelce to beat them.  I own Hill so hoping Howe is right

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2 hours ago, Judge Smails said:

Interesting - I heard exactly the opposite.  Take at Hill and force Kelce to beat them.  I own Hill so hoping Howe is right

Considering they've never really been able to "stop" an elite TE, I think it's more likely they focus on Hill. 

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