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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter amnesiac
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Every single player listed is a poor example.Players that produced MORE fantasy points than T. Hill and then disappeared the next year.......
2015:
J. Maclin (Same team, same situation) -non-factor in 2016
J. Matthews (I can remember the Hype this guy got-was un-startable in 2016
A. Hurns Ditto -was un-startable in 2016
J. Brown -was un-startable in 2016
2014:
B. Lefell
R. Randle
2013:
J. Gordon
T. Smith
K. Wright
H. Douglas
B. Hartline
M. Wallace
N. Washington
Maclin was an aging vet with a long injury history in 2016 and got injured.
J Matthews has never made a play that made people say wow. And totally different receiver.
Allen Hurns - see Blake Bortles
J Brown - see Sickle Cell and decline of Carson Palmer
LaFell and Randle - really? Did either of them ever get confused for being a playmaker?
Same goes for the rest of the list with the notable exceptions of Gordon, who is purely an asterisk and doesn't belong in this argument at all, and Wallace, who has been quietly and consistently strong in his career, if not a bust as it relates to the concept of achieving major upside, since that seems central to the Hill debate. But if Hill had a career similar to that of Wallace would we consider that a failure? If we bought Hill at today's price?
hoffman0001
Footballguy
What do we really know about T. Hill that leads you to believe that he is so special and that he could in no way end up on this list next year?
Do we have.....
A. A proven track record in say the college game or the pro's....nope he has had a very short span of production, mostly coming from gimmic plays and special teams.
B. A super star QB that will produce good numbers....nope. See Alex Smith
C. A Quality WR (yes I know he has a TE target on the team) on the other side of the field that can keep a defense honest....nope
D. A pass happy offense? Nope if anything they will run more in 2017
E. A track record of being able to beat another teams top corner on a regular basis? Nope. Look at the tape, he has yet to show me he can defeat an elite corner with the game on the line (don't give me the "he had a good practice"),.
There are far better options at his ADP that have proven they have what it takes. He will be another name added to this list of "splash" players that were not able to repeat their production.
Look at the tape, there is plenty of it on you tube. Show me one play where he beats an opponents top corner for a big play in one on one coverage. I have seen him beat LB's and DE's, and I have seen him make easy TD's on blown coverage against bad teams. Not one play I could find where he beat the #1 corner. Can you prove me wrong?
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
What he's saying here is right though. Dial it back and stop mocking people with the Canton stuff or other. Talk up why you like a player. If you want to keep posting here, talk less about trying to take jabs at others and trying so hard to be in everyone's face. I'm tired of asking you this.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Same thing in every thread.
Quite sure a simple IP check would be the same as Brewtown who no longer visits these parts due to similar behavior.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Hill spent 52 percent of his snaps out wide, 39 percent in the slot and 8 percent in the backfield. 8, not 35, 8. Ability to flip the field at any moment and people are laser focused on 8% of backfield snaps. Again, he's able to get separation and can run every branch of the tree (thanks Matt Harmon). I'm not saying they are the same, but same height/weight as Antonio Brown / Ty Hilton, so Hill's size is not unique. Shedding KO duties, I'd expect (per Reid's interviews) a majority (around 76% (NO's M Thomas Cooks at 76, Emm Sanders at 80) which would be 760-780 +/-) of offensive snaps for Hill in 17 (last year he played just under 41% of offensive snaps). FYI, Kelce played 87% of KC snaps (888 out of 902) FO snapcounts.
So, do you want to continue the gadget tag from 2016 in light of how the landscape is changing in front of you? Redraft will obviously skew your POV and your offdee scale YMMV, but buybuybuybuy (tongue firmly in cheek) in dynasty. ADP is much more likely to discarded as keeping an ascending 23 year-old at a discount with the upside needle moving up.
So, do you want to continue the gadget tag from 2016 in light of how the landscape is changing in front of you? Redraft will obviously skew your POV and your offdee scale YMMV, but buybuybuybuy (tongue firmly in cheek) in dynasty. ADP is much more likely to discarded as keeping an ascending 23 year-old at a discount with the upside needle moving up.
I don't necessarily disagree with Hoffman from a redraft perspective as you have to be aware as the hype and ADP climbs that you begin to pay for upside, which you'd prefer to limit.
dynasty owners got this guy for table scraps, if you believe he is a gadget player you sell high based on an outlier season, net a solid return and pat yourself on the back
the team has made every indication that they are going to mesh talent with opportunity and get this guy volume touches. We don't have to rehash, but this guy will get the opportunity to be a WR1.
dynasty owners got this guy for table scraps, if you believe he is a gadget player you sell high based on an outlier season, net a solid return and pat yourself on the back
the team has made every indication that they are going to mesh talent with opportunity and get this guy volume touches. We don't have to rehash, but this guy will get the opportunity to be a WR1.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
For like the 1,000 time I AM NOT BREWTOWN. Get over it please.gianmarco said:
Which trick is it? Serious question, are you saying he's just a straight-line burner?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you'd I've to stop having these discussions and start RESPECTFULLY debating fantasy football then by all means let's do that. That's what these boards are for.
No one is jumping on you BC ofnyour "position" on tyreek hill. Only your tone in your posts. It's pompous, arrogant, and belittling.
Change that and you'll get your wish to move away from this bs and go back to fun and respectful debate.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I love Hill - if the beat writer is right and he has 75 receptions, plus is use in the run and return game, he's an IDP-league superstar. In PPR leagues a high ceiling WR2, and non PPR a solid WR3.
But ADP/hype are a challenge.
Im especially challenged, as my IDP draft is on Sept 9th this year, so KC will have already played. And if Hill goes nutty in game one, that's gonna bump his IDP substantially.
But ADP/hype are a challenge.
Im especially challenged, as my IDP draft is on Sept 9th this year, so KC will have already played. And if Hill goes nutty in game one, that's gonna bump his IDP substantially.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Week one is against the Hoddie, who has had a a summer to find ways to shut him down. His value will go down after week 1.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Matt Harmon is a pretty good judge of WR talent, and based on his reception perception he found that Hill was much more than just a straight line runner or gadget player. Hill has the speed to be dynamic no matter how he's used in the offense and Reid is a smart coach. He doesn't love to thrust rookies into starring roles, and it's hard mid-season to make a switch and give a player a lot more roles and responsibilities, but he tried to get Hill on the field however he could.
For the first 3 years of AB's career he was a return specialist who'd had 1 good year over 1000 yards and had rushing thrown in. I'm not guaranteeing that Hill is the next AB, or that Mahomes will be his version of Big Ben, but it's not impossible.
I will admit that I own Hill. I didn't pay anything for him, someone else dropped him before the season even began last year and I'd heard good things about his speed so I stashed him. It's in my best interest if he does progress and become a star WR, but I thought long and hard about selling him this offseason. I have several solid WRs who can give me pretty reliable production, so the more I thought about it, the more I convinced myself to keep him. Hill could be part of the next generation of great WRs. It's not a sure thing, and is definitely a risky gamble, but it's gambles like this that can win championships. Some players try to mitigate risk and would sell Hill now, at the potential peak of his value, but for me it's worth the risk to hold and see if that peak can rise even higher.
For the first 3 years of AB's career he was a return specialist who'd had 1 good year over 1000 yards and had rushing thrown in. I'm not guaranteeing that Hill is the next AB, or that Mahomes will be his version of Big Ben, but it's not impossible.
I will admit that I own Hill. I didn't pay anything for him, someone else dropped him before the season even began last year and I'd heard good things about his speed so I stashed him. It's in my best interest if he does progress and become a star WR, but I thought long and hard about selling him this offseason. I have several solid WRs who can give me pretty reliable production, so the more I thought about it, the more I convinced myself to keep him. Hill could be part of the next generation of great WRs. It's not a sure thing, and is definitely a risky gamble, but it's gambles like this that can win championships. Some players try to mitigate risk and would sell Hill now, at the potential peak of his value, but for me it's worth the risk to hold and see if that peak can rise even higher.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I'd considered that possibility as well, but again - anything he does of value (including an STTD) will bump him higher than his current price.
I'd still be likely to be a buyer but I hate overpaying.
I've also lost count of how many times beat writers have steered me wrong with lofty projections.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
That might be the case, but when a string of top corners shut him down (as I suspect) his value will go down.
I'm sorry in advance my opinion upsets anyone
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would hope so, but also note that any stats from that game count towards week 1 scoring.
In my experience that tends to inflate anyone who scores a TD, and since we count special teams that's a lot of opportunity for his ADP to fluctuate. My hope is that he gets locked down and his value drops. Realistically even a 5/50/1 night will bump his ADP by a round by someone looking to gain a week 1 advantage.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I was responding to Hoffman's post about Hill being shut down lowering Hill's value.
See you in a day. I've tried to be as patient as possible, but I'm tired of the act.
CentralPA
Footballguy
That's where I got him in a PPR draft. Feels like that's the right spot to pick him.
Milkman
Footballguy
Meh Ware had almost 1400 total yards in 14 games. Its not like he was horrible. He just didn't score like he should have. I was happy to grab him again in my start-up dynasty draft.....
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I guess I just remember a lot of criticism towards Andy Reid's playcalling last year from you. Do you think he will use Treek well despite not using Ware at the goal line?
Milkman
Footballguy
With the offseason moves, Reid coming out and saying Tyreek is their #1, and the glowing camp reports it looks like they are all in on him.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I've looked at how Maclin was used in years prior, what Hill's target share looked like with and without Maclin last year and think Hill is a good bet to see 23-25% of Smith's ~500 targets. Looking at RZ utilization, he was only behind Kelce last year. I don't expect him to catch 74% of his passes again, but I do think he'll see a bump in ypc.
The more I look at his ADP the more I think it's fine but I still have doubts that there's WR1 upside despite him having a ton of upside in a vacuum. This offense is just super predictable with this being Reid's 5th and Smith's 4th year. Between the pass/run ratio and play volume I don't think this offense is be able to support a bona fide WR1. Hill would need to either command 30+ percent of Smith's targets or score something like 12 TDs.
The more I look at his ADP the more I think it's fine but I still have doubts that there's WR1 upside despite him having a ton of upside in a vacuum. This offense is just super predictable with this being Reid's 5th and Smith's 4th year. Between the pass/run ratio and play volume I don't think this offense is be able to support a bona fide WR1. Hill would need to either command 30+ percent of Smith's targets or score something like 12 TDs.
MattFancy
Footballguy
I admit, I was skeptical of Hill going into drafts this year. But, after reading more about him, I think he is a really nice WR2 in PPR leagues. He should get plenty of targets in this offense with Kelce really being the only other threat for a bunch of targets. They also have no problem involving him in the run game either, which should help his weekly floor. I can see the skepticism of him, but he seems like his floor is high enough that he makes for a good pick in the middle rounds.
Chiefs still have Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West but they also added a guy Kareem Hunt who is getting many stories of him pushing for the starting role. With all 3 of those RB's having the potential for positive yardage, will or will they not keep Hill more outside of the backfield this year and use trick plays for not 2 but 3 different RBs?
MattFancy
Footballguy
I mean he only had 24 carries last season, so nothing crazy. Maybe he stays around there and gets a few more? But I'm not really worried about Ware/West/Hunt/Spiller taking touches away from Hill. Reid knows Hill is their best offensive threat and will finds ways to get the ball in his hands.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
At 190 lbs, does Reid want Hill to have the ball 8 times a game? The most targets he ever gave DeSean was 120, with McNabb as QB not check-down Alex Smith. And FWIW, DeSean did better the next year on fewer targets. Some players do better with fewer touches.
There's a lot of double talk going on in this thread. Either he's the WR #1 or a special teams/gadget player. As far as Hill getting carries and special teams TDs and still a #### ton of targets, call me skeptical.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Desean saw 120 targets in his rookie season under Reid, one of the few times he played all 16 games. The other seasons he had: 117 (15G), 97 (14G), 104 (15G), 85 (11G). So even with missing games, he still averaged 104.6 targets per season under Reid.
During Reid's coaching career, the top targeted WR has averaged 110 targets per season. Since he has been in KC, the top targeted WR averages 101 per season.
Unless you think Albert Wilson and Chris Conley are going to be target hogs, I don't think it's crazy to peg Hill for 110 targets this season. Based on his catch rate last season, 110 targets would net Hill 81 receptions. Which seems pretty reasonable to me.
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Chaka
Footballguy
Obviously a typo but I am not sure what you were trying to say. DeSean played 87 games over six seasons in Phili and he had 649 targets. That's 108 targets/season or 7.5 targets/game (which pro-rates to 119 tartets/season).
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MattFancy
Footballguy
MattFancy
Footballguy
Blair Kerkhoff of The Kansas City Star reports Tyreek Hill will give up "the bulk of his kick return assignments."
With Jeremy Maclin gone, Hill will take over as the No. 1 receiver, but that means he will need to give up some of his duties on special teams. He is expected to stick on punt returns, where he scored twice last season while leading the league in yards per return. Losing kickoff duties is a small blow to his value in return yardage leagues, but Hill should easily make up the difference on offense. He is an appealing upside pick in the fourth round.
Chaka
Footballguy
Gotcha, so 523 targets in 5 seasons (71 games) = 104.6 targets/season or 7.4 targets/game. He also carried the ball 54 times.
Those seem like fair starting points for projecting Hill.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Agree with all this. 110 targets makes a fair projection.
So there's a computation error as to how this makes Hill a 3rd/4th round pick in the area of Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery, ahead of Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, and Larry Fitzgerald. Barring injury, all of these guys will see more than 110 targets. I know Hill has talent, but so do the aforementioned. It's not realistic imo to count on Hill to have so much more efficiency than them. Unless you count on the same rushing and special teams involvement, not to mention immense success in those areas.
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Don't disagree. I think where Hill gets a bump up is that he has a chance for a homerun every time he touches the ball. Yes, his YPC last year was pretty low, but I think he could increase that from 9.7.
He's certainly an interesting pick in drafts this year. I can see why people are shying away from him at his current ADP, but at the same time, he still could wind up with solid WR2 numbers.
Chaka
Footballguy
Well Hill will definitely have more carries than any of those guys. No question about it. Carries are also, by definition, higher efficiency than targets because they seldom fail to get the ball in the hands of the intended player.
I would say that, on top of the 110 targets you should pencil in around 15-20 carries and work from there.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I would love for Hill to fall to the 5th/6th so I could get him, reach for him there. The upside gives a tingly feeling. But I will never take him ahead of a WR like Diggs.
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