hoffman0001
Footballguy
I like it......but I will argue it will say in a year "what happened to T. Hill?My nomination for the new title of the thread: Tyreek Hill Ouzes with Talent
I like it......but I will argue it will say in a year "what happened to T. Hill?My nomination for the new title of the thread: Tyreek Hill Ouzes with Talent
Every single player listed is a poor example.Players that produced MORE fantasy points than T. Hill and then disappeared the next year.......
2015:
J. Maclin (Same team, same situation) -non-factor in 2016
J. Matthews (I can remember the Hype this guy got -was un-startable in 2016
A. Hurns Ditto -was un-startable in 2016
J. Brown -was un-startable in 2016
2014:
B. Lefell
R. Randle
2013:
J. Gordon
T. Smith
K. Wright
H. Douglas
B. Hartline
M. Wallace
N. Washington
What do we really know about T. Hill that leads you to believe that he is so special and that he could in no way end up on this list next year?Every single player listed is a poor example.
Maclin was an aging vet with a long injury history in 2016 and got injured.
J Matthews has never made a play that made people say wow. And totally different receiver.
Allen Hurns - see Blake Bortles
J Brown - see Sickle Cell and decline of Carson Palmer
LaFell and Randle - really? Did either of them ever get confused for being a playmaker?
Same goes for the rest of the list with the notable exceptions of Gordon, who is purely an asterisk and doesn't belong in this argument at all, and Wallace, who has been quietly and consistently strong in his career, if not a bust as it relates to the concept of achieving major upside, since that seems central to the Hill debate. But if Hill had a career similar to that of Wallace would we consider that a failure? If we bought Hill at today's price?
Nice!Tyreek Hill: How much talent does he have to ooze before he can beat another team's top corner?
What he's saying here is right though. Dial it back and stop mocking people with the Canton stuff or other. Talk up why you like a player. If you want to keep posting here, talk less about trying to take jabs at others and trying so hard to be in everyone's face. I'm tired of asking you this.Let's see I took a few years away from posting and I forgot my log-in info. Is that OK, inspector? Perhaps you want to waterboard me? Seriously it should not matter how long anyone has been here, Everyone has equal status, and no one has the right to monitor or supervise the boards, outside of the moderators so why does everyone from the "old guard" feel they can push new people around? I wonder how many new users this site has lost over the years because if these attitudes?
Again, I don't troll, but I do defend my positions (or am I only "allowed" to do that after I have a 1,000 posts?) and yes, I will push back when some "board king", wants to tell ANYONE how it "should be",. Again, the moderators and staff, and do this all day, cause they have the authority. you, SIR do not.
Same thing in every thread.What he's saying here is right though. Dial it back and stop mocking people with the Canton stuff or other. Talk up why you like a player. If you want to keep posting here, talk less about trying to take jabs at others and trying so hard to be in everyone's face. I'm tired of asking you this.
For like the 1,000 time I AM NOT BREWTOWN. Get over it please.gianmarco said:Same thing in every thread.
Quite sure a simple IP check would be the same as Brewtown who no longer visits these parts due to similar behavior.
Which trick is it? Serious question, are you saying he's just a straight-line burner?Hill is a 1 trick pony
Being the best athlete in the NFL?Which trick is it? Serious question, are you saying he's just a straight-line burner?
If you'd I've to stop having these discussions and start RESPECTFULLY debating fantasy football then by all means let's do that. That's what these boards are for.I'd love to stop having these discussions, if we could keep to the topics and not "keep score" about how long someone has been here, or how many posts they may have.
I'm good with that Chaka lol.@rickyg you're not helping. Take it to PM. Hoffman will be.more.than happy to discuss this with you there.
Week one is against the Hoddie, who has had a a summer to find ways to shut him down. His value will go down after week 1.I love Hill - if the beat writer is right and he has 75 receptions, plus is use in the run and return game, he's an IDP-league superstar. In PPR leagues a high ceiling WR2, and non PPR a solid WR3.
But ADP/hype are a challenge.
Im especially challenged, as my IDP draft is on Sept 9th this year, so KC will have already played. And if Hill goes nutty in game one, that's gonna bump his IDP substantially.
I'd considered that possibility as well, but again - anything he does of value (including an STTD) will bump him higher than his current price.Week one is against the Hoddie, who has had a a summer to find ways to shut him down. His value will go down after week 1.
One game against the NEP isn't going to significantly affect his value. People expect BB to be able to do that to people so he'll get a pass on that one.Hot Sauce Guy said:I'd considered that possibility as well, but again - anything he does of value (including an STTD) will bump him higher than his current price.hoffman0001 said:Week one is against the Hoddie, who has had a a summer to find ways to shut him down. His value will go down after week 1.
I'd still be likely to be a buyer but I hate overpaying.
I've also lost count of how many times beat writers have steered me wrong with lofty projections.
That might be the case, but when a string of top corners shut him down (as I suspect) his value will go down.One game against the NEP isn't going to significantly affect his value. People expect BB to be able to do that to people so he'll get a pass on that one.
I would hope so, but also note that any stats from that game count towards week 1 scoring.One game against the NEP isn't going to significantly affect his value. People expect BB to be able to do that to people so he'll get a pass on that one.
I was responding to Hoffman's post about Hill being shut down lowering Hill's value.I would hope so, but also note that any stats from that game count towards week 1 scoring.
In my experience that tends to inflate anyone who scores a TD, and since we count special teams that's a lot of opportunity for his ADP to fluctuate. My hope is that he gets locked down and his value drops. Realistically even a 5/50/1 night will bump his ADP by a round by someone looking to gain a week 1 advantage.
See you in a day. I've tried to be as patient as possible, but I'm tired of the act.That might be the case, but when a string of top corners shut him down (as I suspect) his value will go down.
I'm sorry in advance my opinion upsets anyone
That's where I got him in a PPR draft. Feels like that's the right spot to pick him.I feel like spending a fourth on him is totally reasonable. I think he has a safe floor and the upside is bigger than most going around him
Are you still high on Ware this year too?Im taking him in the 3rd everytime. I want him on all my teams this year.
Meh Ware had almost 1400 total yards in 14 games. Its not like he was horrible. He just didn't score like he should have. I was happy to grab him again in my start-up dynasty draft.....Are you still high on Ware this year too?
I guess I just remember a lot of criticism towards Andy Reid's playcalling last year from you. Do you think he will use Treek well despite not using Ware at the goal line?Meh Ware had almost 1400 total yards in 14 games. Its not like he was horrible. He just didn't score like he should have. I was happy to grab him again in my start-up dynasty draft.....
With the offseason moves, Reid coming out and saying Tyreek is their #1, and the glowing camp reports it looks like they are all in on him.I guess I just remember a lot of criticism towards Andy Reid's playcalling last year from you. Do you think he will use Treek well despite not using Ware at the goal line?
I mean he only had 24 carries last season, so nothing crazy. Maybe he stays around there and gets a few more? But I'm not really worried about Ware/West/Hunt/Spiller taking touches away from Hill. Reid knows Hill is their best offensive threat and will finds ways to get the ball in his hands.Chiefs still have Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West but they also added a guy Kareem Hunt who is getting many stories of him pushing for the starting role. With all 3 of those RB's having the potential for positive yardage, will or will they not keep Hill more outside of the backfield this year and use trick plays for not 2 but 3 different RBs?
At 190 lbs, does Reid want Hill to have the ball 8 times a game? The most targets he ever gave DeSean was 120, with McNabb as QB not check-down Alex Smith. And FWIW, DeSean did better the next year on fewer targets. Some players do better with fewer touches.I mean he only had 24 carries last season, so nothing crazy. Maybe he stays around there and gets a few more? But I'm not really worried about Ware/West/Hunt/Spiller taking touches away from Hill. Reid knows Hill is their best offensive threat and will finds ways to get the ball in his hands.
Desean saw 120 targets in his rookie season under Reid, one of the few times he played all 16 games. The other seasons he had: 117 (15G), 97 (14G), 104 (15G), 85 (11G). So even with missing games, he still averaged 104.6 targets per season under Reid.At 190 lbs, does Reid want Hill to have the ball 8 times a game? The most targets he ever gave DeSean was 120, with McNabb as QB not check-down Alex Smith. And FWIW, DeSean did better the next year on fewer targets. Some players do better with fewer touches.
There's a lot of double talk going on in this thread. Either he's the WR #1 or a special teams/gadget player. As far as Hill getting carries and special teams TDs and still a #### ton of targets, call me skeptical.
Obviously a typo but I am not sure what you were trying to say. DeSean played 87 games over six seasons in Phili and he had 649 targets. That's 108 targets/season or 7.5 targets/game (which pro-rates to 119 tartets/season).Desean saw 120 targets in his rookie season under Reid, one of the few times he played all 16 games. The other seasons he had: 117 (15G), 97 (14G), 104 (15G), 85 (11G). So even with missing games, he still averaged 14.8 targets per season under Reid.
During Reid's coaching career, the top targeted WR has averaged 110 targets per season. Since he has been in KC, the top targeted WR averages 101 per season.
Unless you think Albert Wilson and Chris Conley are going to be target hogs, I don't think it's crazy to peg Hill for 110 targets this season. Based on his catch rate last season, 110 targets would net Hill 81 receptions. Which seems pretty reasonable to me.
Definitely a typo. Jackson only played under Reid in 5 of those 6 seasons in Philly.Obviously a typo but I am not sure what you were trying to say. DeSean played 87 games over six seasons in Phili and he had 649 targets. That's 108 targets/season or 7.5 targets/game (which pro-rates to 119 tartets/season).
Blair Kerkhoff of The Kansas City Star reports Tyreek Hill will give up "the bulk of his kick return assignments."Anyone know whether or not Reid intends to use Tyreek to return kicks or punts this year?
Gotcha, so 523 targets in 5 seasons (71 games) = 104.6 targets/season or 7.4 targets/game. He also carried the ball 54 times.Definitely a typo. Jackson only played under Reid in 5 of those 6 seasons in Philly.
Agree with all this. 110 targets makes a fair projection.Desean saw 120 targets in his rookie season under Reid, one of the few times he played all 16 games. The other seasons he had: 117 (15G), 97 (14G), 104 (15G), 85 (11G). So even with missing games, he still averaged 104.6 targets per season under Reid.
During Reid's coaching career, the top targeted WR has averaged 110 targets per season. Since he has been in KC, the top targeted WR averages 101 per season.
Unless you think Albert Wilson and Chris Conley are going to be target hogs, I don't think it's crazy to peg Hill for 110 targets this season. Based on his catch rate last season, 110 targets would net Hill 81 receptions. Which seems pretty reasonable to me.
Don't disagree. I think where Hill gets a bump up is that he has a chance for a homerun every time he touches the ball. Yes, his YPC last year was pretty low, but I think he could increase that from 9.7.Agree with all this. 110 targets makes a fair projection.
So there's a computation error as to how this makes Hill a 3rd round pick in the area of Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery, ahead of Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, and Larry Fitzgerald. Barring injury, all of these guys will see more than 110 targets. I know Hill has talent, but so do the aforementioned. It's not realistic imo to count on Hill to have so much more efficiency than them. Unless you count on the same rushing and special teams involvement, not to mention immense success.
Well Hill will definitely have more carries than any of those guys. No question about it. Carries are also, by definition, higher efficiency than targets because they seldom fail to get the ball in the hands of the intended player.Agree with all this. 110 targets makes a fair projection.
So there's a computation error as to how this makes Hill a 3rd round pick in the area of Keenan Allen, and Alshon Jeffery, ahead of Golden Tate, Stefon Diggs, and Larry Fitzgerald. Barring injury, all of these guys will see more than 110 targets. I know Hill has talent, but so do the aforementioned. It's not realistic imo to count on Hill to have so much more efficiency than them. Unless you count on the same rushing and special teams involvement, not to mention immense success in those areas.
I would love for Hill to fall to the 5th/6th so I could get him, reach for him there. The upside gives a tingly feeling. But I will never take him ahead of a WR like Diggs.Don't disagree. I think where Hill gets a bump up is that he has a chance for a homerun every time he touches the ball. Yes, his YPC last year was pretty low, but I think he could increase that from 9.7.
He's certainly an interesting pick in drafts this year. I can see why people are shying away from him at his current ADP, but at the same time, he still could wind up with solid WR2 numbers.