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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (3 Viewers)

I'll be happy to meet you all here each and every week, and we can debate. That's what boards are for. not being self entitled and rude. 

 
Eminence said:
The worst part is that Hoffman has valid points, he's just being so obnoxious that no one is going to want to listen to him, lol.
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 I agree. I have been very vocal in thinking Hill is overvalued and will disappoint, but I can't even take sides with Hoff because he's spilling Mavis hot sauce all over the carpet. 

 
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Eminence said:
The worst part is that Hoffman has valid points, he's just being so obnoxious that no one is going to want to listen to him, lol.
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Gotcha....so I should just post my take and then just go away and not discuss the topic? I'm sure everyone does that....right... :rolleyes:

 
hoffman0001 said:
Gotcha....so I should just post my take and then just go away and not discuss the topic? I'm sure everyone does that....right... :rolleyes:
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Maybe go back and look at how llov80s expresses his outlook on Hill, than look at your own posts. If you can't see a difference than you are beyond help. 

 
Ilov80s said:
 I agree. I have been very vocal in thinking Hill is overvalued and will disappoint, but I can't even take sides with Hoff because he's spilling Mavis hot sauce all over the carpet. 
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Another case where a "board king" was rude to me and I get roasted for responding. I'm only nasty when someone is nasty to me. 

 
tangfoot said:
It's understandable that a noob doesn't really get the board vibe.  You'll get the hang of it in a few hundred more posts.  But the general rule around here is "don't be a ####"
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Again, been around since 2001, so the noob comments are not necessary. 

 
tangfoot said:
Your 175 posts say otherwise.  It's very different being a producer rather than a consumer.
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Ahhhhh way to be a board snob. I think Joe was not on board with this type of attitude. That's a nice way to see a board die. 

 
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tangfoot said:
Ignore list updated.
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See I appreciate the vocal posters, makes the threads fun sometimes. I want to see him go HAM up in here when Hill doesn't even have 200 total yards after the first month of the season or...see his response when Hill has 500 yards through the first month. 

 
Ilov80s said:
See I appreciate the vocal posters, makes the threads fun sometimes. I want to see him go HAM up in here when Hill doesn't even have 200 total yards after the first month of the season or...see his response when Hill has 500 yards through the first month. 
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Thank you friend! I'm very nice when people are nice to me, just can't stand message board "kings" who think people they deem as "noobs" are not worth of posting on "their boards",. I know for a fact Joe does not like that either. We are all equals here, and more improtant to Joe, customers  :yes:

 
hoffman0001 said:
I'll be happy to meet you all here each and every week, and we can debate. That's what boards are for. not being self entitled and rude. 
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Hi @hoffman0001 we love good talk about Football here. Please let's dial it back a notch and keep these discussions on the players not each other. Thanks and enjoy the boards. Agreed for sure, we don't want anyone self entitled or rude here. Thanks. 

 
hoffman0001 said:
Thank you friend! I'm very nice when people are nice to me, just can't stand message board "kings" who think people they deem as "noobs" are not worth of posting on "their boards",. I know for a fact Joe does not like that either. We are all equals here, and more improtant to Joe, customers  :yes:
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Right. Not saying every other poster here is polite angel, but you do contribute to the increased volume. It can be fun without also being dismissive. 

 
Ilov80s said:
See I appreciate the vocal posters, makes the threads fun sometimes. I want to see him go HAM up in here when Hill doesn't even have 200 total yards after the first month of the season or...see his response when Hill has 500 yards through the first month. 
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I hear ya lov80s. But let's keep the FFA more where it's fun. For this, let's try lower drama back and forth. Thanks. 

 
hoffman0001 said:
Thank you friend! I'm very nice when people are nice to me, just can't stand message board "kings" who think people they deem as "noobs" are not worth of posting on "their boards",. I know for a fact Joe does not like that either. We are all equals here, and more improtant to Joe, customers  :yes:
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All good. Thanks. 

 
Slapdash said:
It's about usage for me, not ability. If he is used in the passing game, he can really put up some numbers. That he got no catches in weeks 15 and 16 is worrying.
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Remember when I did this #### last year. Even though I don't have weeks 15/16 recorded, I'm betting there's a strong correlation between Maclin returning in week 14 and Hill seeing decreased snaps/utilization. 

The truth is I think Hill's ADP is pretty fair right now. I can see not buying into him having WR1 upside as the sample size is small and it would require him taking a very large step forward. At his low-end WR2 PPR price however, I honestly don't see all that much risk. The odds he underperforms his current ADP by a large margin seems slim sans injury. The TD to touch ratio won't be there but they will manufacture touches for him and scheme him into space; he's going to be the guy they lean on to make plays. Optimally I'd like to own him as a WR3/flex but I doubt he ever falls to me as such. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
Optimally I'd like to own him as a WR3/flex but I doubt he ever falls to me as such. 
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That does better reflect his value. I never said he did not have a place on a squad, he simply is over-priced. If you draft him as a weekly starter it's going to be scary week to week, what you'll get. He is a flex player. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
Remember when I did this #### last year. Even though I don't have weeks 15/16 recorded, I'm betting there's a strong correlation between Maclin returning in week 14 and Hill seeing decreased snaps/utilization. 

The truth is I think Hill's ADP is pretty fair right now. I can see not buying into him having WR1 upside as the sample size is small and it would require him taking a very large step forward. At his low-end WR2 PPR price however, I honestly don't see all that much risk. The odds he underperforms his current ADP by a large margin seems slim sans injury. The TD to touch ratio won't be there but they will manufacture touches for him and scheme him into space; he's going to be the guy they lean on to make plays. Optimally I'd like to own him as a WR3/flex but I doubt he ever falls to me as such. 
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Ok, so someone else said we shouldn't count the first 5 games because he wasn't really involved yet. Now we are hearing, Hill was used less in weeks 15-17 because Maclin was back . I admit this is poor use of stats, but lets extrapolate Hill's stats over what his supporters claim is the time he was being utilized to his fullest: 

86/920/8 and 22/190/2. That is the dream season right there. In standard, based on the last 4 years of WR data, that would make him WR14-15.

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok, so someone else said we shouldn't count the first 5 games because he wasn't really involved yet. Now we are hearing, Hill was used less in weeks 15-17 because Maclin was back . I admit this is poor use of stats, but lets extrapolate Hill's stats over what his supporters claim is the time he was being utilized to his fullest: 

86/920/8 and 22/190/2. That is the dream season right there. In standard, based on the last 4 years of WR data, that would make him WR14-15.
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Dream being the key word.....if he was say a #2 receiver in a passing offense (think Falcons, Giants, Saints, Cardinals, etc) then I could see it. He is in a run first offense, with a QB who is scared of throwing the high risk deep ball, and he has no one else to take the top corner, so he will get it by default. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
Ok, so someone else said we shouldn't count the first 5 games because he wasn't really involved yet. Now we are hearing, Hill was used less in weeks 15-17 because Maclin was back . I admit this is poor use of stats, but lets extrapolate Hill's stats over what his supporters claim is the time he was being utilized to his fullest:

86/920/8 and 22/190/2. That is the dream season right there. In standard, based on the last 4 years of WR data, that would make him WR14-15.
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Where would that place him in PPR? Regardless, I don't think this offense can support a fantasy WR1, both from a personnel and coaching perspective. It's another hurdle he'd have to overcome.

Like I said I think his current ADP is fair but oddly enough, despite how electrifying he is as a player, I don't see a ton of upside. For him to become a WR1 he'd need to a) show us something we haven't seen yet and b) overcome something both Maclin and Bowe were unable to in the 4 years prior.

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok, so someone else said we shouldn't count the first 5 games because he wasn't really involved yet. Now we are hearing, Hill was used less in weeks 15-17 because Maclin was back . I admit this is poor use of stats, but lets extrapolate Hill's stats over what his supporters claim is the time he was being utilized to his fullest: 

86/920/8 and 22/190/2. That is the dream season right there. In standard, based on the last 4 years of WR data, that would make him WR14-15.
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This is an example of an incorrect way to determine Hill's upside.

It obviously doesn't account for increased usage. 

 
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TripItUp said:
It obviously doesn't account for increased usage. 
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And the Hill bandwagon has yet to account for him being covered by the top corner, and in many cases double-teamed. You just assume you can take his numbers and multiply by X and that's what he will produce. At no level (college or Pro's) has he shown he can be a true #1 WR and beat the top coverage person on the other team. 

 
TripItUp said:
This is an example of an incorrect way to determine Hill's upside.

It obviously doesn't account for increased usage. 
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It's flawed for a number of reasons- particularly it's taking a small sample of a small date set and extrapolating it. It's poor statistics, but it was just an exercise in how he can get that dream season. It does account for increased usage since relative to last season since it's cherry picking out the stretch of the season he was used the most. It's 24 more receptions than he had last season. 

 You think being a high end WR2 is missing the boat on his upside? 

 
SameSongNDance said:
Where would that place him in PPR? Regardless, I don't think this offense can support a fantasy WR1, both from a personnel and coaching perspective. It's another hurdle he'd have to overcome.

Like I said I think his current ADP is fair but oddly enough, despite how electrifying he is as a player, I don't see a ton of upside. For him to become a WR1 he'd need to a) show us something we haven't seen yet and b) overcome something both Maclin and Bowe were unable to in the 4 years prior.
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That is 16 ppg which based on the last 4 year averages, would make him WR 14-15 as well.

 
Ilov80s said:
KC threw the ball 578 times last year which was 8th lowest in the NFL. They threw 473 times in 2015, 3rd lowest in NFL. I think they want to be slow paced and throw very little, but I am not sure they will be able do that in 2017. 
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Comment was in response to Hill being "under sized" nothing more. 

 
hoffman0001 said:
Dream being the key word.....if he was say a #2 receiver in a passing offense (think Falcons, Giants, Saints, Cardinals, etc) then I could see it. He is in a run first offense, with a QB who is scared of throwing the high risk deep ball, and he has no one else to take the top corner, so he will get it by default. 
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I posted earlier about their run/pass in 2016. Again, 58% pass, 42 run. here is the breakdown. 

 
BJ Kissel of the Chiefs' official website reports the Alex Smith-Tyreek Hill connection has been "great" during training camp.

The Kansas City Star's Terez Paylor adds, "Hill can really track it, and Smith trusts him." The two have apparently been lighting up the practice field for the past week, with Hill playing bigger than his 5'10/185 frame. He's been doing damage downfield and in the red zone, splitting All-Pros Marcus Peters and Eric Berry for a touchdown on Friday. Hill's ADP has settled into the middle of the fourth round at WR23. There's still upside at that price as K.C.'s most lethal weapon.

Source: BJ Kissel on Twitter 

Aug 4 - 11:22 AM
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@Milkman you're really not helping.  Can we please just keep this thread about Tyreek Hill and not about chest beating and personal gripes?

Please take it down about 4-5 notches.  

It just kills the thread.

 
hoffman0001 said:
And the Hill bandwagon has yet to account for him being covered by the top corner, and in many cases double-teamed. You just assume you can take his numbers and multiply by X and that's what he will produce. At no level (college or Pro's) has he shown he can be a true #1 WR and beat the top coverage person on the other team. 
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With Kelce around, I don't expect Hill to be the one getting doubled. Top corner? Sure. Double teamed? Not seeing it. 

 
Milkman said:
Too strong and too quick. You whiff and he's gone. 
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:rolleyes:  What is he superman now? There are plenty of strong WR's in the NFL, and they get jammed at the line. The dude is 185 pounds soaking wet. I think the secondary can jam him just fine. 

BTW, if we was such an amazing specimen why didn't he tear it up in college? I have seen zero proof that he can do the things you say he can do. Show me tape where he beat an elite #1 corner (off the line not on some trick play).

All I hear from you is nonsense that he is suddenly some superman. 

 
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