hoffman0001
Footballguy
For Hill? I'd say 70-75 catches, 800 yards, and 6-7 TD's. Not anywhere close to the production you need at his ADP
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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter amnesiac
- Start date
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Sure he will get in some gadget plays, but he won't reach his ADP with those. Especially with the top corner on him each week.
I'll repeat that he put up 60/600/6 last year and only saw limited use in the first 5 weeks. You're basically saying he'll do the exact same thing with full-time work and a year of practice/maturity under his belt.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Yes, because he had a lot of luck on big plays that might not happen this year, and he will be the focus of the defense every week, and have the top corner on him each week, vs. a nickel corner.
Hill is the very similar to the following guys who "broke out" in 2015: J. Matthews, A. Hurns, J. Brown, K. Aiken, etc.
Where are those guys now? Add Hill to that list of draft busts.....your going to over-pay for at best a flex player, who is hit and miss. NO THANKS!
Keep dreaming, I say again, your counting on ALEX SMITH to feed him this year, in a year where they plan to run more.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Here is where he is going now based on ADP:
#22 Hill
#23 Crabtree
#24 Bryant
#25 Edelman
#25 Tate
#26 Diggs
#27 Sanders
Give me any of those guys over Hill!
#22 Hill
#23 Crabtree
#24 Bryant
#25 Edelman
#25 Tate
#26 Diggs
#27 Sanders
Give me any of those guys over Hill!
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you exclude his first 5 games and extrapolate a 16 game season just based on the final 11 weeks, it comes out to 70/736/6 and 31/397/4. I love that upside, really do. My concerns are reasonable though. 12.8 yards per rush and scoring a TD on 13% of his carries are both going to very difficult to come anywhere close to repeating. Without that big rushing production, I worry he's going to end up disappointing.
Milkman
Footballguy
Cant get him over the top ever with these guys sitting on all this underneath stuff? Lol
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Have you seen any Alex Smith game film, like ever?
P.S. Joe, that was meant in a joking way..FYI
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Milkman
Footballguy
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
No, what I'm saying, is counting on a WR to produce great numbers with ALEX SMITH at QB, is a long shot, especially when they were force to pass more in 2016 than they would have liked. Smith averages like 18 TD's a year. Where are these numbers going to come from. Smith is what he is.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Are you SERIOUSLY using one play as your argument? It's not like you tube has a highlight reel of all the times Alex Smith checks down, and misses on the rare deep throws he attempts. The guy had 15 TD's last year.
Kaepernick had 2 more TD's in 3 fewer games than Alex Smith, and this is the guy your counting on?
SCORE BOARD!
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
I stand corrected.....here is your hero....the great Alex Smith...future Hall of Fame player (not)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Go0xSlNlNKg
Milkman
Footballguy
Yep lots of check downs to tyreek and then a few bombs. WR can and do make QBs better. Just wanted to show you hes already hit tyreek deep. Alex Smith doesnt help tyreeks deep ball prospects but smith can check down to him all game and he'll deep on occasion.Are you SERIOUSLY using one play as your argument? It's not like you tube has a highlight reel of all the times Alex Smith checks down, and misses on the rare deep throws he attempts. The guy had 15 TD's last year.
Kaepernick had 2 more TD's in 3 fewer games than Alex Smith, and this is the guy your counting on?
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
Again, how often was Hill covered by the top corner? Hardly ever. His big plays were when he beat a linebacker or nickel corner or safety. If he is going to be the "check-down", who do they have to threaten the defense deep....answer...no one. Do you think their opponents are not going to watch the tape from last year?
Milkman
Footballguy
Haha yeah because when the defense plays him for the check down KC can't audible out of that play and use his blazing speed and ability to win jump balls deep down the field.Again, how often was Hill covered by the top corner? Hardly ever. His big plays were when he beat a linebacker or nickel corner or safety. If he is going to be the "check-down", who do they have to threaten the defense deep....answer...no one. Do you think their opponents are not going to watch the tape from last year?
Lol
What was that top corner doing last season? Shadowing Albert Wilson down the field?Again, how often was Hill covered by the top corner? Hardly ever. His big plays were when he beat a linebacker or nickel corner or safety. If he is going to be the "check-down", who do they have to threaten the defense deep....answer...no one. Do you think their opponents are not going to watch the tape from last year?
hoffman0001
Footballguy
They certainly were not covering the #3 WR, which is what Hill lined up as most of the time. Again, if you WATCH THE TAPE (which I have), most of his big plays are against LB's, Nickel Corners or Safeties. Show me some tape where he beat the #1 corner of the opponent. I doubt you'll find any.
You just wait till week one against THE HODDIE...he has had all summer to prepare for week #1, and he will show the league how to shut down Hill.
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Tibereas
Footballguy
Hill just went 4.04 in my FFPC dynasty startup. 4.05 went A.Jeffrey I'd say Milkman is getting through to some people
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Someone just killed their Dynasty team with that pick.....one back pick does not prove anything.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Lets do some film study shall we?
Here is the footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1CkyCl8Rao
Hill's top plays and who they were against:
#10: Beats DE, and LB's around the edge.
#9: Blown coverage vs. the Colts. My 11 year old could have scored. Not impressed
#8 Beats #2 Corner on a team with a weak secondary.....I'll call that a push. Note the #1 corner had his player locked down. That who Hill will face this year.
#7: Free Kick....not doing those anymore, that's a TD off the board
#6 Punt..not doing those anymore
#5 Beats #2 corner on one of the worst defenses in the league
#4 Punt, not doing those this year, that;s another TD of the board
#3: Beats linebacker on run play...how often are #1 WR's running backfield gadget plays?
#2: See #3
#1: Let me know if you have heard this before....punt return, not doing those anymore, that's a TD off the board
Let's tally:
4 Kicking plays (not doing those anymore)
3 Running plays (I doubt we are going to see much of that this year
1 blown coverage
How many plays against a top corner? ZERO!
Show me proof he is an elite WR against a top corner and we can talk.
Here is the footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1CkyCl8Rao
Hill's top plays and who they were against:
#10: Beats DE, and LB's around the edge.
#9: Blown coverage vs. the Colts. My 11 year old could have scored. Not impressed
#8 Beats #2 Corner on a team with a weak secondary.....I'll call that a push. Note the #1 corner had his player locked down. That who Hill will face this year.
#7: Free Kick....not doing those anymore, that's a TD off the board
#6 Punt..not doing those anymore
#5 Beats #2 corner on one of the worst defenses in the league
#4 Punt, not doing those this year, that;s another TD of the board
#3: Beats linebacker on run play...how often are #1 WR's running backfield gadget plays?
#2: See #3
#1: Let me know if you have heard this before....punt return, not doing those anymore, that's a TD off the board
Let's tally:
4 Kicking plays (not doing those anymore)
3 Running plays (I doubt we are going to see much of that this year
1 blown coverage
How many plays against a top corner? ZERO!
Show me proof he is an elite WR against a top corner and we can talk.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Crickets...I guess that is what happens when you put up some facts, that take the HOT AIR out of the sails of those that don't do their homework.
Hill was UDFA for a reason. Yes he is a great returner, and gadget player, which is what he should be used for. He is NOT a #1 WR, and if you draft him in the top 30 WR's your going to regret it.
Hill was UDFA for a reason. Yes he is a great returner, and gadget player, which is what he should be used for. He is NOT a #1 WR, and if you draft him in the top 30 WR's your going to regret it.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
He was drafted in the 5th round, he wasnt an UDFA. Hes also returning punts, he was taken off kickoffs.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I stand corrected on the draft. I was not sure and football guys has -- next to drafted. So, Joe can take the blame for that one
. We shall see about the punts. It is very unusual for a #1WR to be the primary punt returner. I'll believe it when I see it, they Chiefs are thin at WR, and have a number of options on the roster for punts. 
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Odell Beckham returns punts sometimes. Not as much as early in his career but he still does at times. DeSean Jackson returned kicks and punts for a lot of his career - dont think he does anymore.I stand corrected on the draft. I was not sure and football guys has -- next to drafted. So, Joe can take the blame for that one
Ilov80s
Footballguy
It will be interesting to see if Hill is the primary PR or if it will be like OBJ where he returns like 10 a year when they are in critical points in games.
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Antonio Brown & Ty Hilton are the same size. KC had a 58/42 pass : run mix in 2016. HTH. Don't piss in the pool.Your relying on a under-sized WR, moving into a #1WR role for the first time, on a run-first offense with Alex "I can't see 20 yards downfield" Smith....good luck with that
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
You do know that there are several UDFA in the HOF, right? Kurt Warner will be getting his gold jacket soon as a matter of fact. Bayliss quality hot take, do your homework.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I already corrected this, as I said his FBG profile has him as -- for drafted, an error. Even FBG's is not perfect
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I still am waiting for any film proof that T. Hill has been defended by and beaten a #1 Corner in the NFL. Most of his plays were made against inferior corners and/or LB's. He will be facing the #1 corner of his opponent each week and he has come quality corners on the schedule.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
KC threw the ball 578 times last year which was 8th lowest in the NFL. They threw 473 times in 2015, 3rd lowest in NFL. I think they want to be slow paced and throw very little, but I am not sure they will be able do that in 2017.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
We get it. You need proof.hoffman0001 said:
But there here are two types of people in this world- Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
The coaching staff had an entire offseason to build plays for this kid...they didn't know what they had last year.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
steelers1080
Footballguy
I think it's pretty safe to say that Tyreek Hill will be used more than some WRs, have more carries than some WRs, have less TDs than some WRs, and overall be better and worse than some WRs.
He's a player taking on a new role, it's impossible to predict with 100% accuracy what he will do this coming season, but the best way to guess (and it is just a guess) is to use other players as examples of what's possible, formulate an opinion based on statistics, hear what his coaches and teammates are saying, and hear what "experts" are saying. From the sum total of doing these things it seems clear that Tyreek Hill has a ton of potential, but is a risky play with 0 guarantee of success. He will be much more like Brandin Cooks, than Antonio Brown. He could break the mold and be the next star WR who can run every kind of route and beat #1 corners all day every day, but since he's fairly slight, that seems improbable. It doesn't make sense to let him get bogged down in press coverage. It makes more sense to move him around and find new and exciting ways to get the ball in his hands.
Some experts have proclaimed that he's too risky and that all he can do is run the deep go route, that he's CPat 2.0. This is a possibility. He could be a deep ball threat with Special Teams skills, and nothing more. Other experts have said that he's an extremely talented player who's just started being asked to do other routes and has shown a high proficiency for route running ability. Mark Harmon, reception perception, states (paraphrasing) that Hill is much more than a Desean Jackson or CPat clone, that he is capable of running many different routes, and unlike CPat is very adept at reading opposing defenses.
The last sticking point for many is that Alex Smith is the human equivalent of a lecture you fall asleep during. He's a boring player. He rarely throws downfield, and when he does it's not often in the correct position. There were several times last season when Hill was streaking past defenders and Smith threw it to the wrong side or short, so the pass was broken up or intercepted. With an offseason working together it's possible that their chemistry has gotten better, and there is a potential (a small one) that Smith will be better able to get him the ball this year. The more enticing sales pitch is to extol the talents of Pat Mahomes II. It seems like the golden answer to a Tyreek Hill filled future. On the surface it makes sense, pair a WR who can run really fast, with a QB who can throw the ball a ridiculous distance. But playing in the NFL is obviously more nuanced than just chucking the ball downfield (although Joe Flacco might argue that fact). Even if Mahomes starts later this year, or early next year, that's no guarantee of success for Hill.
Basically, Hill is what he was last year. He's a boom or bust prospect who is probably faster than anyone in the NFL (or at least close to it). If you're ok with taking on the risk, he could pay off dividends and then some. If you're a more cautious player who loves drafting Frank Gore year after year, then Hill isn't your guy. People stating that Hill could be amazing because of XYZ, you're not wrong, but neither are the people stating that he will fail for reasons UVW.
He's a player taking on a new role, it's impossible to predict with 100% accuracy what he will do this coming season, but the best way to guess (and it is just a guess) is to use other players as examples of what's possible, formulate an opinion based on statistics, hear what his coaches and teammates are saying, and hear what "experts" are saying. From the sum total of doing these things it seems clear that Tyreek Hill has a ton of potential, but is a risky play with 0 guarantee of success. He will be much more like Brandin Cooks, than Antonio Brown. He could break the mold and be the next star WR who can run every kind of route and beat #1 corners all day every day, but since he's fairly slight, that seems improbable. It doesn't make sense to let him get bogged down in press coverage. It makes more sense to move him around and find new and exciting ways to get the ball in his hands.
Some experts have proclaimed that he's too risky and that all he can do is run the deep go route, that he's CPat 2.0. This is a possibility. He could be a deep ball threat with Special Teams skills, and nothing more. Other experts have said that he's an extremely talented player who's just started being asked to do other routes and has shown a high proficiency for route running ability. Mark Harmon, reception perception, states (paraphrasing) that Hill is much more than a Desean Jackson or CPat clone, that he is capable of running many different routes, and unlike CPat is very adept at reading opposing defenses.
The last sticking point for many is that Alex Smith is the human equivalent of a lecture you fall asleep during. He's a boring player. He rarely throws downfield, and when he does it's not often in the correct position. There were several times last season when Hill was streaking past defenders and Smith threw it to the wrong side or short, so the pass was broken up or intercepted. With an offseason working together it's possible that their chemistry has gotten better, and there is a potential (a small one) that Smith will be better able to get him the ball this year. The more enticing sales pitch is to extol the talents of Pat Mahomes II. It seems like the golden answer to a Tyreek Hill filled future. On the surface it makes sense, pair a WR who can run really fast, with a QB who can throw the ball a ridiculous distance. But playing in the NFL is obviously more nuanced than just chucking the ball downfield (although Joe Flacco might argue that fact). Even if Mahomes starts later this year, or early next year, that's no guarantee of success for Hill.
Basically, Hill is what he was last year. He's a boom or bust prospect who is probably faster than anyone in the NFL (or at least close to it). If you're ok with taking on the risk, he could pay off dividends and then some. If you're a more cautious player who loves drafting Frank Gore year after year, then Hill isn't your guy. People stating that Hill could be amazing because of XYZ, you're not wrong, but neither are the people stating that he will fail for reasons UVW.
Milkman
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Yes, by mid-season you'll be quoting me as being 100% right, and cursing your teams that have a hole at your #2 WR, because we wasted a pick on Hill. The hooded SITH LORD has had the whole summer to prepare for week #1 and will show the league how to shut down hill. you can QUOTE me on that.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Whatever...I've been around since 2001. take your attitude and shove it. I'll see you here after week #1, where Hill gives you a bunch of nothing
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Weebs210
Footballguy
Yea the Patriots may shut down Hill. Doubt other teams can replicate it easily. Don't worry I will quote you, it definitely won't be for being correct though.
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
Whatever, I'll bet you and the rest were all over A. Hurns and J. Matthews last summer. Keep over-paying for flash in the pan players
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
How do we send out the bat signal for board rules enforcement again?
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I fully support Milkman being in trouble for his superior "they all do" attitude. I simple replied to his nastiness. Narrow-minded "I'm the king of the board, everyone else is wrong comments are not healthy. Respect me and I respect you, dismiss me as being "they" and I can react.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
It works both ways my friend. He is rude to me and I responded. You # of posts does give you a free pass to be nasty and rude.
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