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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (6 Viewers)

Bojang0301 said:
KC will ruin the golden goose if they treat him as a traditional WR1. He needs to be getting touches all over. Conley is a traditional WR in the athletic build of a top WR. While the KC WR corps is odd looking, Andy Reid once had Freddie Mitchell as a starting WR on his team.
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My understanding is that he is not starting. Will get good share of touches, though. Sorry about vagueness, will try to find source.

 
Chiefs coach Andy Reid confirms Tyreek Hill is taking over as the team's No. 1 receiver following the release of Jeremy Maclin.

Hill is taking over Maclin's "Z" receiver position. It's the focal point of Reid's passing attack, and the spot he uses most often to create mismatches. Hill had little trouble creating mismatches as a rookie. There are reasons for caution as the Chiefs transition Hill from gadget status to No. 1 wideout, but the upside is undeniable. Hill could have a monster season.

Source: Kansas City Star

Jun 6 - 3:06 PM
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Slider said:
He's going to have a #1 cb this year.  I wouldn't get overly excited. 
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LOL, cute idea that any corner in the world can keep up with him. As always with things KC-related, the only issue Hill will face is whether Alex Smith can get the ball to him beyond 10 yards. Hopefully Mahomes is in there ASAP. 

 
The Jacket said:
LOL, cute idea that any corner in the world can keep up with him. As always with things KC-related, the only issue Hill will face is whether Alex Smith can get the ball to him beyond 10 yards. Hopefully Mahomes is in there ASAP. 
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I own Hill and Conley and Mahomes is exactly the reason I'm holding both

 
Dr. Octopus said:
How do any of those things protect him from seeing CB1 coverage and/or receiving more attention from opposing defenses? When a WR goes in motion (or lines up "anywhere") the DB covering him runs across the formation with him, unless they play a true zone scheme (and in that case it wouldn't matter anyway).
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Generally, WC play calling can scheme ways to get open or in favorable position whether Hill is at the X, Z or in the backfield. CB1 coverage is obviously fluid, there are not 32 Sherman/Peters/Peteson's out there. That aside, there's the gadget or the matchup problem camps. Targets will increase dramatically from 16, so there's still room on the train before it leaves the station. 

 
I'm still fading big time. TD regression isn't on his side, his yards per target and yards per route were exceptionally low. 

 
I hope that everyone in my league fades him BC I'm happy to grab this little dynamoin the 5th round in my standard league as my wr2 or wr3 

 
Chiefs.com's BJ Kissel wrote Tyreek Hill "seems to be taking his game to another level."

"On multiple plays through the day," Kissel wrote, "Hill made contested catches in tight space, fought off defenders for leverage, and obviously showed the world-class speed that he’s motivated to improve upon." Kissel was not the only one praising Hill after Sunday's practice. CB Marcus Peters said Hill is "is a really technically sound receiver" who plays bigger than his size. All camp hype should be taken with a grain of salt, but with Jeremy Maclin gone, Hill has the look of a big-play threat who also will see a large target share. If he is able to handle the role, that is a recipe for a big fantasy season.

Source: kcchiefs.com 

Jul 31 - 8:56 AM
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need2know said:
I would take him there as well.  Someone will most likely take him before that
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In the fifth you could get Sanders, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Martavis Bryant, ect. I'll pass on Hill for them.

It's not a matter of talent, but situation. I'd be much more receptive if Hill had a gunslinger QB. Has Alex Smith ever produced a WR1?

And I doubt Mahomes takes over this year.

 
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cloppbeast said:
In the fifth you could get Sanders, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Martavis Bryant, ect. I'll pass on Hill for them.

It's not a matter of talent, but situation. I'd be much more receptive if Hill had a gunslinger QB. Has Alex Smith ever produced a WR1?

And I doubt Mahomes takes over this year.
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Does anyone know anything else about hill returning punts/kickoffs this year?  My leagues give rtn stats so that helps alot.  Take that away and he drops a bit for me. 

But I would rather chance hill than those wrs you listed.  They all have warts.  I think hill is going to go ahead of those and probably higher in my leagues.

 
need2know said:
Does anyone know anything else about hill returning punts/kickoffs this year?  My leagues give rtn stats so that helps alot.  Take that away and he drops a bit for me. 

But I would rather chance hill than those wrs you listed.  They all have warts.  I think hill is going to go ahead of those and probably higher in my leagues.
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Kicks, not punts. 

 
This guy is being slept on by dynasty owners so badly. I find it weird that people seem to think that he's maxed out his production as a rookie playing around 50% or even less of snaps. They don't seem to account for increased usage and, more importantly, improvement on his part in his second year (which seems reasonable). So a guy like Michael Thomas is all upside, but Tyreek can go nowhere but down because he's nothing more than a "gadget" player? If you're worried about Tyreek because the Vikings had no idea how to use Cordarrelle Patterson, or because Tavon Austin isn't good at football, then that seems like faulty reasoning to me. The Chiefs are going to make him central to their offense and he won't need a dramatic increase in volume to be a very valuable fantasy asset again this year, even if you account for some TD regression.

IMO he has legit top 10 WR potential this year. I don't know why you wouldn't be all over that, considering where he's going in drafts.

 
RushHour said:
This guy is being slept on by dynasty owners so badly. I find it weird that people seem to think that he's maxed out his production as a rookie playing around 50% or even less of snaps. They don't seem to account for increased usage and, more importantly, improvement on his part in his second year (which seems reasonable). So a guy like Michael Thomas is all upside, but Tyreek can go nowhere but down because he's nothing more than a "gadget" player? If you're worried about Tyreek because the Vikings had no idea how to use Cordarrelle Patterson, or because Tavon Austin isn't good at football, then that seems like faulty reasoning to me. The Chiefs are going to make him central to their offense and he won't need a dramatic increase in volume to be a very valuable fantasy asset again this year, even if you account for some TD regression.

IMO he has legit top 10 WR potential this year. I don't know why you wouldn't be all over that, considering where he's going in drafts.
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Couldn't agree with you more.  He's one of my favorite wr prospects this year.  I had him on my team last year.  He was awesome.  He's Steve smith 2.0 but faster.  

 
It's clear that he's got a faster gear than most and has looked decisive making a cut and going long.

A migraine free Percy Harvin? His speed is insane, he makes everyone on Special Teams look sad.

 
This guy is pretty much only PPR/gadget value now. No more KR (if you got points for that anyway) and my biggest thing, at least as long as Smith is his QB, their play styles just don't match up. Tyreek is a top fantasy option with a strong armed guy willing to throw deep. That is the polar opposite of Smith. Dink and dunk with some cutesy reverses and screens (while being doubled throughout a game now) will only get you so far.

 
ShamrockPride said:
This guy is pretty much only PPR/gadget value now. No more KR (if you got points for that anyway) and my biggest thing, at least as long as Smith is his QB, their play styles just don't match up. Tyreek is a top fantasy option with a strong armed guy willing to throw deep. That is the polar opposite of Smith. Dink and dunk with some cutesy reverses and screens (while being doubled throughout a game now) will only get you so far.
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I see what you are saying but he was basically the number one down the stretch last year and tore it up.  Well 1a with kelce.  

Smith and Reid's playcalling limit him that's why he's knocked down to round 4 or 5 to me.  If you go wr heavy and he s your third or even wr2 that's not bad in my eyes.  It's better than that giant tier of ugly rb2s that gets drafted in that spot

 
ShamrockPride said:
This guy is pretty much only PPR/gadget value now. No more KR (if you got points for that anyway) and my biggest thing, at least as long as Smith is his QB, their play styles just don't match up. Tyreek is a top fantasy option with a strong armed guy willing to throw deep. That is the polar opposite of Smith. Dink and dunk with some cutesy reverses and screens (while being doubled throughout a game now) will only get you so far.
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Maybe this is Alex Smith, maybe it's something else but Hill was very low in yards per target, target distance. He wasn't a big downfield threat last year, his value came in breaking off long runs or YAC for TDs. 

 
need2know said:
I see what you are saying but he was basically the number one down the stretch last year and tore it up.  Well 1a with kelce.  

Smith and Reid's playcalling limit him that's why he's knocked down to round 4 or 5 to me.  If you go wr heavy and he s your third or even wr2 that's not bad in my eyes.  It's better than that giant tier of ugly rb2s that gets drafted in that spot
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Sure, but in weeks 15 and 16 he didn't catch a single pass- that is a little scary. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Sure, but in weeks 15 and 16 he didn't catch a single pass- that is a little scary. 
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Agreed.  He averaged 9.7 yards per catch last season.  What does that tell me?  He cannot get open.  Now, with his speed, he is always a crease away from breaking one, but he is basically a gadget player, since I suspect most of his catches will still come near or behind the line of scrimmage.  He will still get plenty of rushes on gadget plays as well, but until he shows he can get open like a normal WR, he will be nothing more than a boom or bust guy.  Defense coordinators are too smart to get beat week in and week out by a gadget player.

 
ShamrockPride said:
This guy is pretty much only PPR/gadget value now. No more KR (if you got points for that anyway) and my biggest thing, at least as long as Smith is his QB, their play styles just don't match up. Tyreek is a top fantasy option with a strong armed guy willing to throw deep. That is the polar opposite of Smith. Dink and dunk with some cutesy reverses and screens (while being doubled throughout a game now) will only get you so far.
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He put up 384 KR yards and 1 TD last year.  You're not losing much here.

In contract, he also put up 592 PR yards and 2 TDs, and he's keeping this role.

 
My plan is to go RB heavy early and would be ecstatic to get this guy as my wr2. Even with a check down Charlie this guy is explosive enough to take it the distance every touch. 

 
Ghost Rider said:
Agreed.  He averaged 9.7 yards per catch last season.  What does that tell me?  He cannot get open.  Now, with his speed, he is always a crease away from breaking one, but he is basically a gadget player, since I suspect most of his catches will still come near or behind the line of scrimmage.  He will still get plenty of rushes on gadget plays as well, but until he shows he can get open like a normal WR, he will be nothing more than a boom or bust guy.  Defense coordinators are too smart to get beat week in and week out by a gadget player.
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Except this says the exact opposite

 
Ghost Rider said:
Agreed.  He averaged 9.7 yards per catch last season.  What does that tell me?  He cannot get open.  Now, with his speed, he is always a crease away from breaking one, but he is basically a gadget player, since I suspect most of his catches will still come near or behind the line of scrimmage.  He will still get plenty of rushes on gadget plays as well, but until he shows he can get open like a normal WR, he will be nothing more than a boom or bust guy.  Defense coordinators are too smart to get beat week in and week out by a gadget player.
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Not accurate at all. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000779682/article/tyreek-hill-leads-top10-no-3-receivers-in-separation

 
Ilov80s said:
That is interesting...it also would not make me feel any better about his fantasy outlook.
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Can run the route tree, team released Maclin, he gets open and is blazing fast. Break down 320ish completions and 3500 yards for the Chiefs passing game re: Hill in 17 and post his line. I'll take the over/under which you post and we can put up a playful wager, contribution to a charity, whatever you want. Deal? :drive:

 
Tackling Dummies said:
Can run the route tree, team released Maclin, he gets open and is blazing fast. Break down 320ish completions and 3500 yards for the Chiefs passing game re: Hill in 17 and post his line. I'll take the over/under which you post and we can put up a playful wager, contribution to a charity, whatever you want. Deal? :drive:
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I will look at it. I just meant that the list of other players that led the league in separation weren't exactly inspiring for fantasy purposes. If Hill misses a game, the whole bet is off?

 
Ilov80s said:
I will look at it. I just meant that the list of other players that led the league in separation weren't exactly inspiring for fantasy purposes. If Hill misses a game, the whole bet is off?
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Since you're going to set the bar, I'm willing to take missing 2 games before calling it off. This brewery is a short drive if you like session beers and their swag is here. 

 
Tackling Dummies said:
Can run the route tree, team released Maclin, he gets open and is blazing fast. Break down 320ish completions and 3500 yards for the Chiefs passing game re: Hill in 17 and post his line. I'll take the over/under which you post and we can put up a playful wager, contribution to a charity, whatever you want. Deal? :drive:
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75/800/5 would be my over under for his receiving line 

 
A 33% increase in yardage and 25% increase in touchdowns would be regression if his game count increases 100%

 
tangfoot said:
He was on a much higher pace last year.
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he still did nothing the last two weeks.  and I wouldn't say it was HALF the year that he 'wasn't involved in'.

I like him too, and think he will surpass 75/800/5.  Just not sure how much over 1000 yards one can expect in that offense.  Still a steal at his ADP though.

 
Deamon said:
he still did nothing the last two weeks.  and I wouldn't say it was HALF the year that he 'wasn't involved in'.

I like him too, and think he will surpass 75/800/5.  Just not sure how much over 1000 yards one can expect in that offense.  Still a steal at his ADP though.
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Granted, I get points for return yards and TDs in my league, but it's still a fallacy to say he did "nothing".

Week 15 - 68 rushing yards and a rushing TD

Week 16 - 95 rushing yards and a rushing TD

Week 17 - 5 catches for 46 yards and a punt return TD.

I'm not expecting him to set the world on fire, but 75/800/5 is an extremely lowball projection.  85/1000/7 seems right in line with what I would expect out of that offense.

 
tangfoot said:
Granted, I get points for return yards and TDs in my league, but it's still a fallacy to say he did "nothing".

Week 15 - 68 rushing yards and a rushing TD

Week 16 - 95 rushing yards and a rushing TD

Week 17 - 5 catches for 46 yards and a punt return TD.

I'm not expecting him to set the world on fire, but 75/800/5 is an extremely lowball projection.  85/1000/7 seems right in line with what I would expect out of that offense.
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Fully agree.  I see him right around that 85/1000/7 mark too.

However, your predicted totals would also mean a regression if you expect his snaps to double.

 
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