What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

I know week 2 is Bender approved plays, but here are initial leans for over reactions:

Colts +3 EV

Cards +13.5

Fins +17.5

Steelers -3.5

GB -2.5

Bengals PK

Falcons PK

Browns -2.5

 
The Ref said:
Record of NFL teams that lost by 34.5 or more the following week
Click to expand...
is that the straight up margin or ats margin? if it's the straight up margin (Dolphins) then they cover the next game about 57% of the time. if that -34.5 is the previous spread margin (Dolphins + Browns) it's about a 50/50 shot at covering next week. fwiw, the +17 on the Dolphins is the most points any team has received in your situation in database history, and teams receiving DD on the spread covered 64% and 13-3-1 ATS L17

so you're definitely onto something with Miami there, and Pats are historically terrible ATS in Miami - I can tell you that without even looking it up. Even so.. :unsure:

 
Open 2 Team Teaser (ties push) Pleaser tp 6½ pts NFL

Pending 9/9/19 10:15pm  NFL Football  481 Denver Broncos -9½ * vs Oakland Raiders

+660

 
@swirvenirvin Tweeted:

FFslickpicks

@ffslickpicks

Murray over 6.5-7.5 rush attempts Duke under 70-79 r+r Kamara under 105 t+t Cook under 49.5 Brees over 22.5 Thomas over 6.5 Thomas > Hopkins in yards

:wub:  

 
the only thing I'm worried about, and Suzy Colbert just mention, the Saints' lost their L5 openers - the fact it's kinda well-documented. not sure how it bodes, but opposing teams 7-1 L8 season openers vs the Saints, scoring 17,29,31,35,37,40,42,48 points per game (35±9) versus Saints' defense in those 8 games..

HOU touchdowns scored over 2 -170
HOU touchdowns scored over 3½ +315

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ChainsawU said:
the only thing I'm worried about, and Suzy Colbert just mention, the Saints' lost their L5 openers - the fact it's kinda well-documented. not sure how it bodes, but opposing teams 7-1 L8 season openers vs the Saints, scoring 17,29,31,35,37,40,42,48 points per game (35±9) versus Saints' defense in those 8 games..

HOU touchdowns scored over 2 -170
HOU touchdowns scored over 3½ +315
Click to expand...
Yeah I took Texans +7 earlier.  Brees and Payton have been real bad weeks 1 and 2 last few years.

 
It's gonna fly in the face of John Bender's overreaction Week 2 plays, but I'm taking Chiefs -9.5 for week 2.  I think Oakland is going to stink it up tonight and 9.5 will be cheap by tomorrow.  We'll see if I'm shrap or square (we all know the answer).

 
ChainsawU said:
is that the straight up margin or ats margin? if it's the straight up margin (Dolphins) then they cover the next game about 57% of the time. if that -34.5 is the previous spread margin (Dolphins + Browns) it's about a 50/50 shot at covering next week. fwiw, the +17 on the Dolphins is the most points any team has received in your situation in database history, and teams receiving DD on the spread covered 64% and 13-3-1 ATS L17

so you're definitely onto something with Miami there, and Pats are historically terrible ATS in Miami - I can tell you that without even looking it up. Even so.. :unsure:
Click to expand...
It’s 18 now and im asking because ive already backed NE and wanted to know how historically bad a spot this was.  I'm aware of the (bad) football history in Miami, was curious about the betting one.

 
Tony Martino

@PointShaver13

Since 08-09, Patriots as Double Digit Road Favorites, FG Under is 10-0

Pats/Dolphins under 47.5

 
The Ref said:
It’s 18 now and im asking because ive already backed NE and wanted to know how historically bad a spot this was.  I'm aware of the (bad) football history in Miami, was curious about the betting one.
Click to expand...
I don't claim to "know" what BB is thinking, but looking at Pats games and remembering how I've bet them the past couple seasons, it's probably going to be hot AF in Miami and Belichick will want to knock them the #### out early in the 1H so they can throttle down and rest as much as possible in the 2H, get out of town and prepare to focus on the Jets in W3. That's what I think, and can't imagine they'd be putting any energy running the score up any more than they have to in the second half. I've seen BB do that exact thing before. Just my :2cents:

 
facook said:
I will be very interested to see how much the Bears miss Fangio as DC.  I think it is a significant loss.
Click to expand...

Is there a worse time for struggling Mitch Trubisky to face former Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio? Probably not. There’s a nagging suspicion that the Broncos new head coach, having seen Trubisky every day in practice the previous two seasons, will have his defense perfectly set up to negate Mitch’s strengths and prey on his weaknesses.
Click to expand...
I just realize he Denver HC this season

:football:
 
lumpy19 said:
What are we doing as a society?  Football should be 7 days a week, this is ridiculous.
Click to expand...
I have said the following in week 3 of the NCAAF season in every single FFAWT thread for the last 9 years.  There are 130 D1 teams.  ESPN 2, ESPN u, Fox 2, CBS Sports etc are all begging for content.  There is absolutely no way in hell the SunBelt shouldn’t sign a contract to have one conference game every Tue and for MW or CUSA to not do the same on Wed.  Doesn’t have to play the whole slate.  Just one game.

you think the kids playing for Troy and So Miss would rather play Sat on local cable or tonight on ESPN 2?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Ref said:
I have said the following in week 3 of the NCAAF season in every single FFAWT thread for the last 9 years.  There are 130 D1 teams.  ESPN 2, ESPN u, Fox 2, CBS Sports etc are all begging for content.  There is absolutely no way in hell the SunBelt shouldn’t sign a contract to have one conference game every Tue and for MW or CUSA to not do the same on Wed.  Doesn’t have to play the whole slate.  Just one game.

you think the kids playing for Troy and So Miss would rather play Sat on local cable or tonight on ESPN 2?
Click to expand...
For real, other D1 sports don't only play on Fri and sat, c'mon NCAA

 
ChainsawU said:
whit a minute did somebody on the broncos get injured last night? I'm seeing +125 now. Why did I pay 17 cents and get no points!
Click to expand...
Weeelll....I might have SLIGHTLY overvalued Fangio and Flacco.  I took Denver D/ST in several leagues.  0 points.  Against the Raiders.  :gunshot:

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

supermike80
Thread---Marital Advice
2
Replies
70
Views
1K
coopersdad
C
DJackson10
Work won’t allow me back after being injured because of limitations on a separate issue they had no issue with previously when doing this job
Replies
29
Views
1K
DJackson10
DJackson10
ChiefD
Merry Christmas All
Replies
27
Views
637
simsarge
simsarge

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 10 (members: 0, guests: 10)
Top