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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrius Guice, Redskins

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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I have the 1.3 in a league and see no need to trade to the 1.2 spot.  If anything I'd love to trade down to 1.5 and get some future high picks.  I have Fournette, Gurley, Hunt, McCaffrey, and McCoy already in that league where we only have to start 1 RB.  It's a dynasty ppr and the only WRs on my team are OBJ, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones.  We can start 1-5 RB, 1-5 WRs, total of 9 starters on offense.

OMG the horror!

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12 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

I agree with that, but it's something, if you're looking for anythinG to not select him 1.2 in dynasty drafts if you're already strong at RB.

I have Zeke, Gurley, Cook, Ajayi and I still drafted Mixon, Kamara, Barkley and Guice. It’s a no brainer for me but beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess. I’m still planning to fill my roster with a few running backs in 2018 i’ll Patiently wait to see who declares.

 

Tex

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32 minutes ago, BigTex said:

I have Zeke, Gurley, Cook, Ajayi and I still drafted Mixon, Kamara, Barkley and Guice. It’s a no brainer for me but beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess. I’m still planning to fill my roster with a few running backs in 2018 i’ll Patiently wait to see who declares.

 

Tex

I like James Washington more than Guice, but I would probably take Guice over the other WRs

Edited by JohnnyU

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

I like James Washington ore than Guice, but I would probably take Guice over the other WRs

I love James, via trade I too have the 1.3 pick. Barkley, Guice and Chubb are gone I have the first two (Taxi Squad) but if Penny (who I have been on all year) or Jones II is sitting there I’m not sure I will take James. IMHO these are the top 3 on my board. (I already have my tiered top 50 that I will adjust after the declaration deadline)

Tex

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LSU junior Derrius Guice rushed for 98 yards on 21 carries and also caught two touchdowns in a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame on Monday in the Citrus Bowl.

Guice just missed a third receiving touchdown near the end of the game, coming down on essentially the one-inch line to set up what could have been the game-winning field goal. It wasn't. Guice looked like a first-round pick against the Irish on Monday, and assuming he enters the draft, that's what he likely will be with his ability to make plays as a receiver and ball-carrier. He could easily end up being a top 20 selection come spring.

 

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Following Monday's Citrus Bowl loss to Notre Dame, LSU junior RB Derrius Guice said that he would have a discussion with HC Ed Orgeron before he makes an NFL Draft decision.

Guice (5'11/216) put in 98 yards with a pair of receiving touchdowns during the Citrus Bowl defeat. Following the game, he deflected somewhat on the NFL Draft, saying that he had been focusing mostly on bowl preparation over the past month. If the junior standout does declare -- as is widely expected -- he's a potential top-15 selection. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. ranks him as the No. 3 draft-eligible running back out there, trailing only Penn State's Saquon Barkley and Stanford's Bryce Love.

Source: New Orleans Times-Picayune 

Jan 1 - 8:03 PM

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LSU RB Derrius Guice intends to enter 2018 NFL Draft

Rotoworld:

LSU junior RB Derrius Guice will forego his final year of eligibility to enter the 2018 NFL Draft.

Guice (5'11/216) took his sweet time weighing his options, but as expected, he's decided to throw his hat into the draft ring. He posted seasons of 1,000-plus rushing yards each of the past two campaigns. As a prospect, Guice ranks as the No. 3 running back on the position board of ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr., trailing only Penn State's Saquon Barkley and Stanford's Bryce Love. He's a bruising runner capable of breaking tackles on inside runs thanks to an explosive burst and offers more than enough quickness to take advantage of momentary holes up front. He'll likely be ticketed for a selection on Day 2 of the draft, though a rise up to the first round with a strong evaluating process shouldn't be counted out.

Source: Derrius Guice on Twitter 

Jan 10 - 5:48 PM

Edited by Faust

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Haven’t seen any games with Guice but read a blurb that he’s only had 30ish receptions in 3 years... yet he had 2 TD receptions in the bowl game. Is he a dual threat or not?

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24 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Haven’t seen any games with Guice but read a blurb that he’s only had 30ish receptions in 3 years... yet he had 2 TD receptions in the bowl game. Is he a dual threat or not?

He is, more so than Fournette, but just like Fournette he can catch just fine but LSU can't figure out how to get RBs the ball through the air. 

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13 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Kiper has Bryce Love ranked 2nd and Guice #3rd.......interesting.

Kiper is a joke, more like a comic book character.

Tex

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21 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Kiper has Bryce Love ranked 2nd and Guice #3rd.......interesting.

That should tell you all you need to know about Kiper and his rankings. 

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22 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Kiper has Bryce Love ranked 2nd and Guice #3rd.......interesting.

How old is kiper- and how long will we have to keep listening to his “expert” opinion? He just happened to be at Espn at the right time and has held on to his job. It was great when they brought in mcshay and he would disagree all the time, Mel would get angry. Nowadays i think he just finds a list and swaps some names to be slightly contrarian and somehow that gets ratings.

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

How old is kiper- and how long will we have to keep listening to his “expert” opinion? He just happened to be at Espn at the right time and has held on to his job. It was great when they brought in mcshay and he would disagree all the time, Mel would get angry. Nowadays i think he just finds a list and swaps some names to be slightly contrarian and somehow that gets ratings.

You’re right. I’d bet there isn’t a team in the league that has Love ahead of Guice on their draft board. 

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21 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Haven’t seen any games with Guice but read a blurb that he’s only had 30ish receptions in 3 years... yet he had 2 TD receptions in the bowl game. Is he a dual threat or not?

He’s never gonna be a McCaffrey but I can see him being a 30-40 catch guy.  

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

How old is kiper- and how long will we have to keep listening to his “expert” opinion? He just happened to be at Espn at the right time and has held on to his job. It was great when they brought in mcshay and he would disagree all the time, Mel would get angry. Nowadays i think he just finds a list and swaps some names to be slightly contrarian and somehow that gets ratings.

The age of Kiper is irrelevant and I disagree that he just uses a list and swaps names around, but I've never agreed with him.   It goes back to 1994 when he and Bill Tobin got into it over the Colts selecting Trev Alberts instead of Trent Dilfer.  While I agreed with him about Alberts, I also disagreed about Trent Dilfer.  Before anyone says how Dilfer won a Super Bowl, we all know he sucked and rode the coattails of the Ravens defense in 2000.

Edited by JohnnyU

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  On 12/10/2017 at 11:01 AM, JohnnyU said:

I have the 1.3 in a league and see no need to trade to the 1.2 spot.  If anything I'd love to trade down to 1.5 and get some future high picks.  I have Fournette, Gurley, Hunt, McCaffrey, and McCoy already in that league where we only have to start 1 RB.  It's a dynasty ppr and the only WRs on my team are OBJ, Antonio Brown, and Julio Jones.  We can start 1-5 RB, 1-5 WRs, total of 9 starters on offense.

 

Holy Hell! Have you lost a Championship in the last 3 years?

I thought my team was stacked with Bell, David Johnson, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Julio, Mike Evans, Tyreek, Allen Robinson, and Juju, but I still lost the championship to the Gurley owner.

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On 1/12/2018 at 8:43 AM, steelers1080 said:

Holy Hell! Have you lost a Championship in the last 3 years?

I thought my team was stacked with Bell, David Johnson, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Julio, Mike Evans, Tyreek, Allen Robinson, and Juju, but I still lost the championship to the Gurley owner.

13 year league, I've won 3 (1st year, 2015, and 2017).  

Edited by JohnnyU

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On 1/12/2018 at 9:49 AM, JohnnyU said:

13 year league, I've won 3 (1st year, 2015 years ago, and 2017).  

Man that’s a long time between titles. :D

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I've been digging into Guice a bit this afternoon.  My biggest takeaway thus far - the kid can catch.  In the Army Bowl (HS), Guice played exclusively in the slot.  He scored a couple long TDs, including this absolute beauty(!!!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOp6UXCibLs.  He didn't get the opportunity to catch the ball much in college, but he did a lot of it in high school.  It's hard to judge the routes, but he has good hands and can track the ball well.  I've read his pass protection needs work, but I think we're looking at a potential 3-down back.  

 

Edited by Concept Coop
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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I've been digging into Guice a bit this afternoon.  My biggest takeaway thus far - the kid can catch.  In the Army Bowl (HS), Guice played exclusively in the slot.  He scored a couple long TDs, including this absolute beauty(!!!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOp6UXCibLs.  He didn't get opportunity to catch the ball much in college, but he did a lot of it in high school.  It's hard to judge the routes, but he has good hands and can track the ball well.  I've read his pass protection needs work, but I think we're looking at a potential 3-down back.  

 

He really is a good receiver. LSU has resisted modernizing its offense for more than a decade so you're right it's difficult to evaluate him as a route runner and receiver because we rarely threw to him (or any RB). He had 9 rec in 2016 and 18 in 2017, but that's mostly due to a lack of opportunities. But his hands are good and when given the opportunity I think he demonstrated good feel for the passing game. His receiving ability is what puts him at #2 behind Barkley for me

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Fwiw if you want a good sense of what Guice looks like when healthy the game to watch for the 2017 season is Ole Miss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjzO_aEB6IY

The main caveat here is Ole Miss's defense was awful. All reports were this was the game he felt best during the season. He had an injured ankle during spring practice and had a nagging lower body injury during much of the season (honestly not sure if it was the same ankle or something else - the team never specified and there's a chance it was a knee).

You could also look at highlights from his 2016 season. His performance coming in after Fournette got hurt fueled some of the preseason Heisman talk for 2017.

Edited by DAG

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Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 prospects for 2018 NFL Draft

Excerpt:

Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Rank: #15

Guice is a very shifty running back with excellent quickness and power. He has a thick/square build and runs with a very low pad level. On inside runs, he likes to press the hole and pause before using a jump-cut. Once he gets north and south, Guice seeks out second-level defenders and lowers his shoulder on contact. He has excellent contact balance. He doesn't have elite top speed, but his short-area quickness is outstanding. He's effective on perimeter runs, but he's more natural running inside. He was underutilized in the passing game at LSU, but he displayed adequate ball skills. He needs to be more firm in pass protection. Overall, Guice has a nice blend of power and quickness. He's built to carry a heavy workload at the next level.

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So I finished watching Guice last night. I actually ended up watching 12 games although the game vs Auburn was only 5 or 6 plays, so I ended up throwing that game out and also his worst graded game in my charting, which was against Mississippi State in 2017.

I end up with a total score of 592 for the 10 games I did use. For some context Barkley ends up with 692 for his total score, so still a lot more than Guice, Nick Chubb over 10 games had a total score of 332. So Guice is closer to Barkley level of talent than he is Chubb.

Several of the clips that I watched of Guice were longer, more plays. The average clip is around 5 minutes. For Guice I watched a 10 minute clip, two 9 minute clips, so a lot more plays from these games than an average game. The player has to do more to get a longer clip, so in that sense the player has earned the extra plays, but I have realized I should keep track of the total number of plays charted, so that I can normalize this on a per play basis. I have to go back and count plays from games I watched to do that, but I intend to. I do think this will make this charting data a bit more fair and could tell us some other interesting things perhaps as well for each specific category.

That being said Guice is a very good player. Excellent vision for finding gaps in the defense, usually runs with very good leverage and power to gain yards after contact. Has break away speed i he gets enough space to use it. Can be elusive but does more with footwork than making defenders miss. Very hard to bring down with just one defender most of the time. Good balance to keep his feet after contact. Uses spin moves effectively at times.

A couple things I did not like, or still have questions about is his route running. The way Guice runs routes seems very lazy to me. Part of this is he is just holding a spot in pass protection, but no defenders come, so it is a waste. He could be releasing out into a route sooner on these plays. Other times he is just slow to get out in his route, he rounds off his cuts and just generally does not show much sense of purpose running routes. He does not snap off his cuts on routes and is very easy for defenders to cover. A lot of the time he is uncovered, I have seen Guice drop the ball several times in these clips, and you can see the QB does not really trust him that much as a receiver. The main play that works for them with Guice is a shovel pass where Guice just kind of hides behind the center and guard, the QB will get him the ball behind a blocker and Guice will do the rest. He does have some big plays off of this in the games I watched, but it is all run after the catch. I still don't like how Guice runs routes.

His pass protection is sketchy. He goes after the defenders legs too much trying to cut block. He has the size and strength to square up with defenders, he just doesn't do it much. There are times where he is fine is pass protection. I would even say I think he improved in 2017 in this area, as the games from 2017 were not poor pass protection assignments much, most of the bad ones I saw are from 2016. He still has a lot of work to do in that area I think though.

I think Guice is worthy of being a tier one RB based on what I have seen of him. After I get a but more comfortable with this kind of grading of the players, I will go back and use the same method for the top RB last year, and find out just where he would be in relation to them. I feel like Guice might be at the same level of player as Fournette and Cook from last season, but I still like those two RB a little more. I do think Guice is better than Mixon though. So that likely means tier one.

The charting results

Vision    Speed    Acceleration    Elusiveness    Burst    Power    Footwork    Pad level    Balance    Throwing    Ball security    Blocking    Stiff arm    Route running    Hands

Tenessee                4    3    2    2    4    8    4    10    2        1    0        1    3    44
Florida                5            2    3    7    2    8    3        2            2    1    35
BYU                9    3    2    2    9    7    5    8    5        2    2    1            55
Missouri 2016                7    6    5    4    6    5    4    4    3        2                1    47
Southern Miss 2016                9    3    3    5    8    3    11    4    4        1    2        1    0    54
Arkansas 2016                12    6    5    4    6    9    9    8    5        3            1        68
Florida 2016               11    4    3    3    9    9    7    10    4        -1    3        1    0    63
Texas A&M 2016               17    5    4    8    13    9    16    18    5        4    6                105
Louisville 2016               7    2    2    4    7    4    7    6    4    1        2        3    3    52
Ole Miss 2017                11    8    7    5    8    5    8    9    4        2            1    1    69

 

Totals             92    40    33    39    73    66    73    85    39    1    16    15    1    10    9    592

His best game in my view was against Texas A&M. His second best game was against Ole Miss. He has almost twice as many total plays in the clip against TAM than OM. The Ole Miss game almost every play he has is a highlight. So if I do this accounting for the total number of plays (49 for the TAM game and 25 for the OM game) Guice would have 2.14 positive traits per play in the TAM game and 2.76 positive traits per play in the Ole Miss game. So play for the play the Ole Miss game is the best one.

@Rhythmdoctor I would suggest watching the Texas A&M game and the Ole MIss game (linked a few post above by DAG) to see Guice at his best.

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A lot of people seem to think there’s a huge gap between Barkley and Guice. I agree there’s a gap, but it’s not huge.

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

A lot of people seem to think there’s a huge gap between Barkley and Guice. I agree there’s a gap, but it’s not huge.

when receiving ability is factored in I think its pretty huge personally.

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7 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

when receiving ability is factored in I think its pretty huge personally.

Guice has good hands he played in a system that doesn’t throw to backs and hapless QBs to begin with. 

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7 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Guice has good hands he played in a system that doesn’t throw to backs and hapless QBs to begin with. 

Hes got good enough hands. He runs ok routes. Barkley has WR type ability at halfback. Im not saying Guice wont catch some passes but Barkley is a Zeke, Gurley type of guy who can get 2000 total yards imo.

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

Guice has good hands he played in a system that doesn’t throw to backs and hapless QBs to begin with. 

In his game against Florida Guice has two drops out of 3 targets. He also fumbles the ball twice in that game. Not a good game for him really. I already talked about his routes, they aren't very good, needs improvement at the pro level. Does not seem a natural as a receiver, the simplicity of the kind of routes makes how lazy he runs them bother me too. It is kind of like he isn't aware of or being coached on these things. At least to me, but what do I know? Its certainly a product of the system that doesn't really focus on using RB as receivers as much as some more passing focused teams might.

To draw a comparison, For Guice I had 10 positive instances of him running routes out of 10 games, his best game was against Louisville. Sanquon Barkley I have with 49 positive instances of him running good routes out of 10 games. So almost a 5 to 1 difference. Nick Chubb I had 8 instances of him running routes. If the player I am watching does not run a good route I just don't give them a point for it, even if that is what they did on the play, they just didn't do it well.

There are some instances of Guice doing a good job with running routes, but more instances of him being sloppy and not doing all that well at his task.

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Rotoworld's Thor Nystrom writes that LSU RB Derrius Guice "seems like a player who’d have been drafted higher a decade ago."

"I just assumed I’d rank him as RB2 behind Barkley, which is where most others have him, but I found myself underwhelmed," Nystrom wrote of his tape study of the 5-foot-11, 216-pounder. While Guice brings plenty of thump and power to the table, the analyst was less impressed by his speed as well as his ability as a pass-catcher. Nystrom ranks him as the No. 4 running back prospect in this class. The NFL Scouting Combine figures to be a crucial stage for Guice. We do not view him as a guaranteed first-round selection.

Source: Rotoworld 

Feb 17 - 2:15 PM

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On the Rotoworld Football Podcast, Josh Norris explained that LSU RB Derrius Guice is on the Thomas Rawls - Marshawn Laynch spectrum of player.

Norris explains this by stating Guice can thrive on contact, is an aggressive runner and frequently adds a few extra yards on final contact. That is quite different than the style that Saquon Barkley and Ronald Jones present. Classifying a player on a spectrum is important as it offers a range of outcomes.

Source: Rotoworld.com 

Feb 26 - 9:44 AM

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His hands are serviceable it seems, but that doesn't lead to success unless it's a coach/organizational fit.  And any RB who isn't completely outstanding as a pass catcher has the chance of being replaced on 3rd down for a scat-back type of guy because these guys are generally very skilled in that area.  Workhorse backs who are outstanding pass catchers I'd say is limited to 4-6 RB's in the league (Bell, DJ, Gurley, Hunt, Shady, probably Barkley as well).  If you're not one of those 4-6 there is a chance to be limited in a workload.  Now some organizations use their main RB as pass catchers, Zeke, Hyde, Miller, Fournette, Gore, Anderson, Lynch, Gordon, but they are not excellent pass catchers in their own right.  At least in my opinion it's more a "right time, right call" type of situation that happens to make those catches really good.  But the elite pass catching RB's are few and far between.  Guice's pass catching role is determined by the organization he goes to and their utilization of him.  Detroit would seem great, but I'd bet they spell him quite a bit for a guy like Riddick.  Same with Washington as a landing spot being spelled for Thompson.  Just examples obviously but any RB who isn't completely insane with their ability to pass catch, is a replaceable guy in that aspect of the game to me.  

I didn't add Kamara in there, because of his lack of full workload, but he's an excellent pass catcher looking to add more running to his game.  That seems like the reverse conversation so I didn't want to include him in my initial thoughts about projecting Guice.  

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6 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

This isn't directed at you meno, just the article/writer

With all the holes the dolphins need to fill, I find this article to be very questionable at best.  Signing a veteran rb? yes.  Maybe using a 3rd, 4th or 5th for rb depth? reasonable.  Spending a 1st or 2nd on rb?  I doubt it

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6 minutes ago, Bazinga! said:

This isn't directed at you meno, just the article/writer

With all the holes the dolphins need to fill, I find this article to be very questionable at best.  Signing a veteran rb? yes.  Maybe using a 3rd, 4th or 5th for rb depth? reasonable.  Spending a 1st or 2nd on rb?  I doubt it

Word was they wanted to sign CJ when/if he gets cut.

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8 minutes ago, Bazinga! said:

 

This isn't directed at you meno, just the article/writer

With all the holes the dolphins need to fill, I find this article to be very questionable at best.  Signing a veteran rb? yes.  Maybe using a 3rd, 4th or 5th for rb depth? reasonable.  Spending a 1st or 2nd on rb?  I doubt it

Fair enough but I have found this writer to be pretty rock solid for years now. Without a strong QB in place I certainly think it's possible they would look at a player like Guice in round 2 if that option was avialable. I don't think having Drake as your main RB means RB is not a need.

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