msudaisy26
Footballguy
OMG the horror!JohnnyU said:
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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I have Zeke, Gurley, Cook, Ajayi and I still drafted Mixon, Kamara, Barkley and Guice. It’s a no brainer for me but beauty is in the eye of the beholder I guess. I’m still planning to fill my roster with a few running backs in 2018 i’ll Patiently wait to see who declares.
Tex
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I like James Washington more than Guice, but I would probably take Guice over the other WRs
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I love James, via trade I too have the 1.3 pick. Barkley, Guice and Chubb are gone I have the first two (Taxi Squad) but if Penny (who I have been on all year) or Jones II is sitting there I’m not sure I will take James. IMHO these are the top 3 on my board. (I already have my tiered top 50 that I will adjust after the declaration deadline)
Tex
Faust
MVP
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Haven’t seen any games with Guice but read a blurb that he’s only had 30ish receptions in 3 years... yet he had 2 TD receptions in the bowl game. Is he a dual threat or not?
steelers1080
Footballguy
He is, more so than Fournette, but just like Fournette he can catch just fine but LSU can't figure out how to get RBs the ball through the air.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Snorkelson
Footballguy
How old is kiper- and how long will we have to keep listening to his “expert” opinion? He just happened to be at Espn at the right time and has held on to his job. It was great when they brought in mcshay and he would disagree all the time, Mel would get angry. Nowadays i think he just finds a list and swaps some names to be slightly contrarian and somehow that gets ratings.
You’re right. I’d bet there isn’t a team in the league that has Love ahead of Guice on their draft board.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
The age of Kiper is irrelevant and I disagree that he just uses a list and swaps names around, but I've never agreed with him. It goes back to 1994 when he and Bill Tobin got into it over the Colts selecting Trev Alberts instead of Trent Dilfer. While I agreed with him about Alberts, I also disagreed about Trent Dilfer. Before anyone says how Dilfer won a Super Bowl, we all know he sucked and rode the coattails of the Ravens defense in 2000.
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steelers1080
Footballguy
Holy Hell! Have you lost a Championship in the last 3 years?
I thought my team was stacked with Bell, David Johnson, Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Kamara, Julio, Mike Evans, Tyreek, Allen Robinson, and Juju, but I still lost the championship to the Gurley owner.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
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Andrew74
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
since I have 1.02
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I've been digging into Guice a bit this afternoon. My biggest takeaway thus far - the kid can catch. In the Army Bowl (HS), Guice played exclusively in the slot. He scored a couple long TDs, including this absolute beauty(!!!): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IOp6UXCibLs. He didn't get the opportunity to catch the ball much in college, but he did a lot of it in high school. It's hard to judge the routes, but he has good hands and can track the ball well. I've read his pass protection needs work, but I think we're looking at a potential 3-down back.
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He really is a good receiver. LSU has resisted modernizing its offense for more than a decade so you're right it's difficult to evaluate him as a route runner and receiver because we rarely threw to him (or any RB). He had 9 rec in 2016 and 18 in 2017, but that's mostly due to a lack of opportunities. But his hands are good and when given the opportunity I think he demonstrated good feel for the passing game. His receiving ability is what puts him at #2 behind Barkley for me
Fwiw if you want a good sense of what Guice looks like when healthy the game to watch for the 2017 season is Ole Miss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjzO_aEB6IY
The main caveat here is Ole Miss's defense was awful. All reports were this was the game he felt best during the season. He had an injured ankle during spring practice and had a nagging lower body injury during much of the season (honestly not sure if it was the same ankle or something else - the team never specified and there's a chance it was a knee).
You could also look at highlights from his 2016 season. His performance coming in after Fournette got hurt fueled some of the preseason Heisman talk for 2017.
The main caveat here is Ole Miss's defense was awful. All reports were this was the game he felt best during the season. He had an injured ankle during spring practice and had a nagging lower body injury during much of the season (honestly not sure if it was the same ankle or something else - the team never specified and there's a chance it was a knee).
You could also look at highlights from his 2016 season. His performance coming in after Fournette got hurt fueled some of the preseason Heisman talk for 2017.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
So I finished watching Guice last night. I actually ended up watching 12 games although the game vs Auburn was only 5 or 6 plays, so I ended up throwing that game out and also his worst graded game in my charting, which was against Mississippi State in 2017.
I end up with a total score of 592 for the 10 games I did use. For some context Barkley ends up with 692 for his total score, so still a lot more than Guice, Nick Chubb over 10 games had a total score of 332. So Guice is closer to Barkley level of talent than he is Chubb.
Several of the clips that I watched of Guice were longer, more plays. The average clip is around 5 minutes. For Guice I watched a 10 minute clip, two 9 minute clips, so a lot more plays from these games than an average game. The player has to do more to get a longer clip, so in that sense the player has earned the extra plays, but I have realized I should keep track of the total number of plays charted, so that I can normalize this on a per play basis. I have to go back and count plays from games I watched to do that, but I intend to. I do think this will make this charting data a bit more fair and could tell us some other interesting things perhaps as well for each specific category.
That being said Guice is a very good player. Excellent vision for finding gaps in the defense, usually runs with very good leverage and power to gain yards after contact. Has break away speed i he gets enough space to use it. Can be elusive but does more with footwork than making defenders miss. Very hard to bring down with just one defender most of the time. Good balance to keep his feet after contact. Uses spin moves effectively at times.
A couple things I did not like, or still have questions about is his route running. The way Guice runs routes seems very lazy to me. Part of this is he is just holding a spot in pass protection, but no defenders come, so it is a waste. He could be releasing out into a route sooner on these plays. Other times he is just slow to get out in his route, he rounds off his cuts and just generally does not show much sense of purpose running routes. He does not snap off his cuts on routes and is very easy for defenders to cover. A lot of the time he is uncovered, I have seen Guice drop the ball several times in these clips, and you can see the QB does not really trust him that much as a receiver. The main play that works for them with Guice is a shovel pass where Guice just kind of hides behind the center and guard, the QB will get him the ball behind a blocker and Guice will do the rest. He does have some big plays off of this in the games I watched, but it is all run after the catch. I still don't like how Guice runs routes.
His pass protection is sketchy. He goes after the defenders legs too much trying to cut block. He has the size and strength to square up with defenders, he just doesn't do it much. There are times where he is fine is pass protection. I would even say I think he improved in 2017 in this area, as the games from 2017 were not poor pass protection assignments much, most of the bad ones I saw are from 2016. He still has a lot of work to do in that area I think though.
I think Guice is worthy of being a tier one RB based on what I have seen of him. After I get a but more comfortable with this kind of grading of the players, I will go back and use the same method for the top RB last year, and find out just where he would be in relation to them. I feel like Guice might be at the same level of player as Fournette and Cook from last season, but I still like those two RB a little more. I do think Guice is better than Mixon though. So that likely means tier one.
The charting results
Vision Speed Acceleration Elusiveness Burst Power Footwork Pad level Balance Throwing Ball security Blocking Stiff arm Route running Hands
Tenessee 4 3 2 2 4 8 4 10 2 1 0 1 3 44
Florida 5 2 3 7 2 8 3 2 2 1 35
BYU 9 3 2 2 9 7 5 8 5 2 2 1 55
Missouri 2016 7 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 47
Southern Miss 2016 9 3 3 5 8 3 11 4 4 1 2 1 0 54
Arkansas 2016 12 6 5 4 6 9 9 8 5 3 1 68
Florida 2016 11 4 3 3 9 9 7 10 4 -1 3 1 0 63
Texas A&M 2016 17 5 4 8 13 9 16 18 5 4 6 105
Louisville 2016 7 2 2 4 7 4 7 6 4 1 2 3 3 52
Ole Miss 2017 11 8 7 5 8 5 8 9 4 2 1 1 69
Totals 92 40 33 39 73 66 73 85 39 1 16 15 1 10 9 592
His best game in my view was against Texas A&M. His second best game was against Ole Miss. He has almost twice as many total plays in the clip against TAM than OM. The Ole Miss game almost every play he has is a highlight. So if I do this accounting for the total number of plays (49 for the TAM game and 25 for the OM game) Guice would have 2.14 positive traits per play in the TAM game and 2.76 positive traits per play in the Ole Miss game. So play for the play the Ole Miss game is the best one.
@Rhythmdoctor I would suggest watching the Texas A&M game and the Ole MIss game (linked a few post above by DAG) to see Guice at his best.
I end up with a total score of 592 for the 10 games I did use. For some context Barkley ends up with 692 for his total score, so still a lot more than Guice, Nick Chubb over 10 games had a total score of 332. So Guice is closer to Barkley level of talent than he is Chubb.
Several of the clips that I watched of Guice were longer, more plays. The average clip is around 5 minutes. For Guice I watched a 10 minute clip, two 9 minute clips, so a lot more plays from these games than an average game. The player has to do more to get a longer clip, so in that sense the player has earned the extra plays, but I have realized I should keep track of the total number of plays charted, so that I can normalize this on a per play basis. I have to go back and count plays from games I watched to do that, but I intend to. I do think this will make this charting data a bit more fair and could tell us some other interesting things perhaps as well for each specific category.
That being said Guice is a very good player. Excellent vision for finding gaps in the defense, usually runs with very good leverage and power to gain yards after contact. Has break away speed i he gets enough space to use it. Can be elusive but does more with footwork than making defenders miss. Very hard to bring down with just one defender most of the time. Good balance to keep his feet after contact. Uses spin moves effectively at times.
A couple things I did not like, or still have questions about is his route running. The way Guice runs routes seems very lazy to me. Part of this is he is just holding a spot in pass protection, but no defenders come, so it is a waste. He could be releasing out into a route sooner on these plays. Other times he is just slow to get out in his route, he rounds off his cuts and just generally does not show much sense of purpose running routes. He does not snap off his cuts on routes and is very easy for defenders to cover. A lot of the time he is uncovered, I have seen Guice drop the ball several times in these clips, and you can see the QB does not really trust him that much as a receiver. The main play that works for them with Guice is a shovel pass where Guice just kind of hides behind the center and guard, the QB will get him the ball behind a blocker and Guice will do the rest. He does have some big plays off of this in the games I watched, but it is all run after the catch. I still don't like how Guice runs routes.
His pass protection is sketchy. He goes after the defenders legs too much trying to cut block. He has the size and strength to square up with defenders, he just doesn't do it much. There are times where he is fine is pass protection. I would even say I think he improved in 2017 in this area, as the games from 2017 were not poor pass protection assignments much, most of the bad ones I saw are from 2016. He still has a lot of work to do in that area I think though.
I think Guice is worthy of being a tier one RB based on what I have seen of him. After I get a but more comfortable with this kind of grading of the players, I will go back and use the same method for the top RB last year, and find out just where he would be in relation to them. I feel like Guice might be at the same level of player as Fournette and Cook from last season, but I still like those two RB a little more. I do think Guice is better than Mixon though. So that likely means tier one.
The charting results
Vision Speed Acceleration Elusiveness Burst Power Footwork Pad level Balance Throwing Ball security Blocking Stiff arm Route running Hands
Tenessee 4 3 2 2 4 8 4 10 2 1 0 1 3 44
Florida 5 2 3 7 2 8 3 2 2 1 35
BYU 9 3 2 2 9 7 5 8 5 2 2 1 55
Missouri 2016 7 6 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 47
Southern Miss 2016 9 3 3 5 8 3 11 4 4 1 2 1 0 54
Arkansas 2016 12 6 5 4 6 9 9 8 5 3 1 68
Florida 2016 11 4 3 3 9 9 7 10 4 -1 3 1 0 63
Texas A&M 2016 17 5 4 8 13 9 16 18 5 4 6 105
Louisville 2016 7 2 2 4 7 4 7 6 4 1 2 3 3 52
Ole Miss 2017 11 8 7 5 8 5 8 9 4 2 1 1 69
Totals 92 40 33 39 73 66 73 85 39 1 16 15 1 10 9 592
His best game in my view was against Texas A&M. His second best game was against Ole Miss. He has almost twice as many total plays in the clip against TAM than OM. The Ole Miss game almost every play he has is a highlight. So if I do this accounting for the total number of plays (49 for the TAM game and 25 for the OM game) Guice would have 2.14 positive traits per play in the TAM game and 2.76 positive traits per play in the Ole Miss game. So play for the play the Ole Miss game is the best one.
@Rhythmdoctor I would suggest watching the Texas A&M game and the Ole MIss game (linked a few post above by DAG) to see Guice at his best.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Guice has good hands he played in a system that doesn’t throw to backs and hapless QBs to begin with.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hes got good enough hands. He runs ok routes. Barkley has WR type ability at halfback. Im not saying Guice wont catch some passes but Barkley is a Zeke, Gurley type of guy who can get 2000 total yards imo.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In his game against Florida Guice has two drops out of 3 targets. He also fumbles the ball twice in that game. Not a good game for him really. I already talked about his routes, they aren't very good, needs improvement at the pro level. Does not seem a natural as a receiver, the simplicity of the kind of routes makes how lazy he runs them bother me too. It is kind of like he isn't aware of or being coached on these things. At least to me, but what do I know? Its certainly a product of the system that doesn't really focus on using RB as receivers as much as some more passing focused teams might.
To draw a comparison, For Guice I had 10 positive instances of him running routes out of 10 games, his best game was against Louisville. Sanquon Barkley I have with 49 positive instances of him running good routes out of 10 games. So almost a 5 to 1 difference. Nick Chubb I had 8 instances of him running routes. If the player I am watching does not run a good route I just don't give them a point for it, even if that is what they did on the play, they just didn't do it well.
There are some instances of Guice doing a good job with running routes, but more instances of him being sloppy and not doing all that well at his task.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Rotoworld has a writer named Thor.....really?
Zyphros
Footballguy
His hands are serviceable it seems, but that doesn't lead to success unless it's a coach/organizational fit. And any RB who isn't completely outstanding as a pass catcher has the chance of being replaced on 3rd down for a scat-back type of guy because these guys are generally very skilled in that area. Workhorse backs who are outstanding pass catchers I'd say is limited to 4-6 RB's in the league (Bell, DJ, Gurley, Hunt, Shady, probably Barkley as well). If you're not one of those 4-6 there is a chance to be limited in a workload. Now some organizations use their main RB as pass catchers, Zeke, Hyde, Miller, Fournette, Gore, Anderson, Lynch, Gordon, but they are not excellent pass catchers in their own right. At least in my opinion it's more a "right time, right call" type of situation that happens to make those catches really good. But the elite pass catching RB's are few and far between. Guice's pass catching role is determined by the organization he goes to and their utilization of him. Detroit would seem great, but I'd bet they spell him quite a bit for a guy like Riddick. Same with Washington as a landing spot being spelled for Thompson. Just examples obviously but any RB who isn't completely insane with their ability to pass catch, is a replaceable guy in that aspect of the game to me.
I didn't add Kamara in there, because of his lack of full workload, but he's an excellent pass catcher looking to add more running to his game. That seems like the reverse conversation so I didn't want to include him in my initial thoughts about projecting Guice.
I didn't add Kamara in there, because of his lack of full workload, but he's an excellent pass catcher looking to add more running to his game. That seems like the reverse conversation so I didn't want to include him in my initial thoughts about projecting Guice.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Fair enough but I have found this writer to be pretty rock solid for years now. Without a strong QB in place I certainly think it's possible they would look at a player like Guice in round 2 if that option was avialable. I don't think having Drake as your main RB means RB is not a need.
Faust
MVP
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