Rob knew Sandra would be there.
Sandra knew Rob would be there.
They both knew Amber would be there.
All 3 knew Rob and Sandra would be on opposite tribes initially (editing... of course they aren't going to put them on the same tribe initially).
Which means Sandra would be on Amber's tribe.
Sandra lies and says Rob lied to her about being on the show and acts like she is pissed. Taking some heat off her on her tribe (that Rob guy is the bad guy) and a focus to get Amber out which was going to happen anyway at some point, so part of the plan. Amber was going to be the "early" sacrificial lamb the whole time.
Now Rob gets to act pissed that "OMG Sandra got Amber voted out, so now I'm pissed at her and IT's ON"....taking some heat off of Rob on his tribe (Sandra is the bad guy)
So now, both Rob and Sandra have both taken some early heat off of them by deflecting the focus of both of their tribes to somebody on the other tribe....and they start sucking people in "cause they are pissed" and want to take out the "bad guy". Hoping other players buy in and feel the need to keep both of them around in order to eventually get rid of the other "bad guy".
Meanwhile they coast along pulling all the strings until they get to the merge. Where they will team up (although acting like they aren't) and cruise to the end.
As far as the game goes Rob and Amber have agreed to use Amber however best they can knowing she won't win.....the whole "I want to beat my husband thing" means absolutely nothing. Anything Rob and Sandra get out of Amber being around, on Extinction, back in the game, tokens, whatever, is just gravy.
This is all being set up as another "lesson" from Rob and Sandra about how stupid all of your were for not getting rid of us IMMEDIATELY. Did you really think Sandra and I weren't going to talk about how to work together and win this thing when we spent 39 days together? Plus it's 2 mil and we can agree to split or something.
Hopefully some of the other players figure out what is going on and call Rob and Sandra out on it. But the "Rob being pissed at Sandra" and "Sandra being pissed at Rob" is being played to perfection by both of them as it is taking some of that initial "biggest threats in the game" heat off of them. (plus they are both just really ####### good).
This is a pretty far theory which I think I heard someone else say as well but I don't really buy because she has said she feels betrayed in confessionals and also said in a premiere panel she had with Jeff Probst and a few other cast members she felt hurt Rob didn't tell her. I believe she most likely did feel hurt/betrayed but also possibly embellished her feelings so she wouldn't be seen as a pair with Rob like Jeremy and Natalie were because Sandra really only cares about herself in this game. I think I heard that theory floated by Jamal and RHAP and I think there's a good chance it's true. Sandra is an elite social player.
I thought these were winners and they knew how to play???
Instead, we get a bunch of
following the executioner to their slaughter.
Yup. Three votes in and not one of the big threats sent packing
I would disagree. We are three votes in but with EoE there are likely 16 votes still to go. There is still plenty of time to eliminate big threats. Nobody is going to forget about Rob, Parvati, Sandra, or Kim (who I would also put up there).
First vote: Natalie - First votes are typically anybody but me votes and apparently Natalie and Jeremy did little to separate themselves. Honestly, it was a disadvantage for them to start on the same tribe together. Natalie and Sarah should have been flipped. Natalie was probably the best female athlete in that tribe so I think taking her out was probably ill advised for everyone besides Adam and Denise who needed to take the target off their backs. Without really fully knowing the tribe dynamics as we probably see less then 1% of what goes on, I'm not sure who the tribe should have targeted first.
Second vote: Amber - Splitting hairs a bit here, but I think Kim might have been the better choice here. She played arguably the best game of all time in One World and did it on her first try. Most of her cast wanted to take her to the end and she would have beaten almost anyone in the end. She ran circles around that cast. You could argue her cast was full of sheep but Monica and Troyzan from her cast have made final threes in returnee seasons. Granted, I think both were 0 vote finalists.
Rob also ran circles around his cast on Redemption Island but it was his fourth try and based on post game interviews it sounds like there were quite a few people he could not have beaten if they had gotten to the end. Of course, he was smart enough to know who he would and would not beat and is showing again in Winners at War that he is a serious force at Survivor.
To counter the point that voting out Kim would have been the better move, Amber probably would have flipped in a swap if she swapped onto the same tribe as Rob so it seems like the Red Tribe probably made the safer play here even though Kim could flip as well. Tyson, who is probably the fifth biggest threat in the game and also very close friends with Rob in real life (much closer then Lex ever was), was probably not a good choice to vote out first because he is such a beast at challenges.
Third Vote: Danni - Danni was absolutely the right choice for the tribe to vote out even though Parvati is a superior player and a far bigger threat. With EoE in play, I think there are still 16 more player eliminations to get Parvati out.
A swap is likely coming and a Survivor player should aim at alienating as few people as possible in these pre-swap votes so that hopefully no one flips on them after they swap. Had new school voted out Parvati, I feel like Ethan and Rob would have absolutely flipped to red after a swap which would greatly reduce the chances of Jeremy, Adam, Denise, Michele, or Ben winning the game or even making the merge. Plus Danni basically showed you can't count on her long term by flipping on Parvati so quickly.
For example, after Missy decided to blindside Chelsea last season instead of voting out Karishma, Dean never voted with her again and Karishma still wasn't loyal to Missy (unlike Chelsea) so the move basically cost her two votes. Chelsea was definitely a bigger threat then Karishma but the bigger move is often not the right move.
Finally, when they do swap, Parvati and Rob will likely be voted out in a swap before Ethan, Jeremy, Adam, Denise, Michele, and Ben if they swap into a minority against the red tribe.
Two things that stood out to me from this episode are :
1. Why was Rob doing the puzzle. It seems to me that he would have been a lot more valuable doing the heavy lifting with the chests and cart.
2. During tribal they don't show Jeremy saying a single word. He was doing a lot of observing. Smart play IMO.
1. Rob has been historically excellent in puzzles. I think having just seen his wife voted out probably put him in a bad mental state. Because of that, I agree he should of been doing the heavy lifting but normally he's such a puzzle ace that he would usually be better there despite being one of the stronger players physically.
2. This means absolutely nothing. Tribal council is one to two hours long I believe. Someone could do 75% of the talking at tribal and be made completely invisible on television if that's how the editors decide to portray that person. I'm pretty sure Jeff picks on everyone and then the editors show what they feel is important to the overall narrative of the season or is a just a really funny moment.
I really don't expect Rob,Sandra or Parvati to win but they really are on a different level.
I would agree with this though I'd also put Kim on their level based on her play in One World. She's struggled this season and doesn't seem to be playing particularly well from the bottom but at least she's aware she's on the bottom.
Also, Sophie said otherwise in her confessional, but Tyson was not the right person for her to give half her idol to. If Tyson and Kim remain on the bottom and go to tribal council again then Tyson most likely isn't giving her that idol half. Kim took a gamble and gave it to Sophie. Based on what Yul posted on twitter after week 1 for reasons why he didn't vote out Kim, I think Yul probably would have been the right choice but all of the players are operating on way less information then we as viewers are.
