Football Jones
Footballguy
I had to chuckle at the word 'bulk' being in quotation marks as well as the part where they said it'll elicit eye rolls. LOL.
The "bulking" nonsense needs to die a slow, painful death.
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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
The "bulking" nonsense needs to die a slow, painful death.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Week 10 on last year, Williams 142 carries. Jones 14. Not rbbc to me. Monty is the wildcard, but likely will have a scaled back role (not rb1) so he stays healthy.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think last year is a complete anamoly. I don't think it's fair to judge any RBS usage. all 3 were hurt. William's played the majority of his time with Hundley. just a mess.
We have no idea how any RB will be used with Aaron Rodgers.
Coach has come right out and said Montgomery will be a featured part of the offense. I guess we will see how many games he lasts. After that its anyone's guess. obviously there are biases on each side. FTR I didn't own any of Jones stock 2017, I just saw a great athlete in an even better opportunity. I took over a dynasty orphan and he is on my team, one of the draws that brought me to that team. so I can admit my bias this season. Williams has the leg up with a 2 game suspension, but Jones was inactive week 1 last year anyway and did just fine, and the first 2 opponents are tough. so I don't see it amounting to much of an advantage.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Fair enough, I do have some built in bias as I drafted williams one spot and have acquired him as a throw-in in another. I agree, the way it played out last year with Williams missing time early and Monty going down and then jones getting banged up after a decent stretch makes this year hard to predict.
No one mentions Williams playing with hundley and how that could have affected his ypc. Instead of what he’s done well you hear “jones is a superior runner, this is widely accepted as fact.” One thing is for sure imo- Monty will get his, he’s looked good and will earn touches, but I think they learned that he isn’t built for 25 touches a game.
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I hate trying to read into coachspeak (link at bottom), but I feel like calling him a "multi-positional player" is akin to "situational RB" or "offensive weapon" rather than "lead back." Also he's got sickle-cell, which I think can lead to fatigue and increased susceptibility to injury (didn't work out too well for John Brown the past 2 years, but Ryan Clark played with it for a long time).
After last season ended, I've always felt JW was most likely to win the job and AR had the second best odds. Montgomery only has a year left on his contract and can't seem to stay healthy. Might as well look to the future and let the better pass protector and more durable player develop chemistry with the 1's. I agree Ty has shown some talent/ability on the field, but I don't expect his amount or type of touches to eat into the lead RB's production in a meaningful way this year.
http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/270057/running-back-or-receiver-packers-see-ty-montgomery-as-multi-positional-if-healthy
ETA: I've got some JW bias - when I read he was possibly the best pass protector in the 2017 class of RBs, had a knack for shedding tacklers, and had a really low fumble rate I made him a draft target last year, particularly after he went to GB (his combine and lack of use in the passing game were big red flags, though). On the other hand, I liked what I read about AR, too, but didn't think GB was a great fit for him and was discouraged that he wasn't the 1st RB drafted by GB - had they not drafted JW, I'd have been more encouraged.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
this point has been made. I think it's a legitimate one, and it's why no one really can say with certainty how any of these backs will be used together with Rodgers.
Jamaal Williams was better in pass protection last year. GB has seen what life without Rodgers is like, so if nothing has changed in pass protection with Jones then he likely won't be on the field as much as Williams in these scenarios. I think this can be taught, more easily than trying to be faster.
What had me hooked on Jones was his athleticism and running ability. It's amazing how dynamic Jones' athleticism makes him. his limitation was pass protection last year, a problem yes, but one that can be learned if he puts in the time and effort. if Williams and Jones were equal in pass protection I dont think theres a chance Williams holds off Jones.
if the rbbc experiment fails, or if none of them emerge (especially if Williams and Jones dont take the year 2 step that McCarthy talks so much about), I think we have a new backfield next season in green bay. most likely a free agent IMO (and no, I'm not talking Bell)
it will be interesting to see how each of these backs has improved from last season. that will give this situation much more clarity. or maybe not and we will be debating it for another 12 pages in August
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
not so much suceptibility to injury, but more delayed recovery from bumps and bruises.
I take him as saying they're going to use Montgomery out of the backfield. so yes, situational back. I could see times we have both one of JW or AJ, and Montgomery on the field at the same time.
I think we get caught up too much in who gets their name on the TV screen during the first drive, as the "starter." all I care about is who is going to be given the most carries and who is going to do the most with them.
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Ah, that's right. Memory is a little foggy on the subject. I remember reading about that in regard to John Brown (did some reading on it a year ago trying to tell if John Brown was a good buy low or not).
As for being on the field at the same time, I'm sure it'll happen a little. Typically when this happens I see them start out in a split back set and then one guy moves to the slot or next to the tackle as an extra blocker, which is what I meant about Ty not impacting the RB that much. Sure, he'll get receptions out of those formations, but the RB probably wasn't going to get that target anyway.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yes I agree. I guess I am thinking along the lines of this:
In today's fantasy football a running back is most valuable if he catches passes. Look at Jordan Howard. He has been in the top 10 each of his 2 seasons in the NFL. He gets no respect in fantasy it seems because he doesn't catch passes. If they get behind he could post a 2.5 game for you. Running backs who catch passes will still have value in those scenarios. Ingram/Kamara is the exception IMO, and not sustainable/consistent in most cases; I think it's hard to have 2 viable fantasy running backs on one team- one who catches and one who runs. Especially for GB when they don't run the ball in the redzone.
So my concern about this RBBC is that Ty Montgomery becomes the Theo Riddick version for the Packers, and Jones and/or Williams become Abdullah... pretty much a roster space and that's it. At least until Montgomery gets hurt.
Man, you weren't kidding. I ran the data dominator from 2013-2016 and from 5 yards in, GB ranked 26th in rushes with 57*. The median was 64, so it's not a huge delta to get to the middle of the pack, but still. If I move it to strictly red zone (inside the 20), GB actually ranks 13th with 225 (median is 220). So they're not terrible about handing it off in the red zone, but they don't tend to put it in the RB's hands at the most valuable location (goal line).
*But when they do hand it off, they do well. GB ranked 14th in rushing TDs, despite being 26th in attempts.
However, situations like you mentioned where one guys gets such a massive share of the passing work aren't all that common. Abdullah/Riddick and Crowell/Duke are the extreme examples. Given McCarthy's usage of RBs in the past, I don't think he'll have such an extreme split. I wouldn't be shocked to see Ty become the 2-minute drill guy, but I don't think we'll see the lead back coming off the field on every 3rd down like in Detroit and Cleveland.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
TyMont has sickle cell, while I like him as the value right now I just don’t see him ever making it a through a full season at RB with over 200 touches.
Did that include Rodgers rushes as well? Because he tends to steal a few himself every year, plus they love that trick play of giving the ball to the fullback at the goal line too.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Eh, I don't count QB rushes because the vast majority of them (and in GB possibly 99% of them) are from broken pass plays.
McCarthy seems to hate running the ball in the redzone. Ripkowski was their best goal line back, and he is good at it. But it's maddening seeing 5 WR set at the 3 yard line all the time.
No, I sorted by RB position only so QB rushes were not included in those numbers. Although I expect the data dominator lumps fullbacks in with running backs.
If I change it to all positions, it increases the goal line rushes to 65 and GB ranks 27th.
I went to look back at Kuhn's stats but he didn't steal as many TD's as I thought he did, only one or two a year during his time in GB.
I asked because Rodgers averages about 3 rushing TD's a year when he plays a complete season (trending down in recent years though), most of his TD's come from short yardage situations. He used to call his own number inside the 10 on a more regular basis but that has slowed down as he's gotten older. If that had been included in the numbers (it wasn't) that would have made their ranking of 26th for run plays in the redzone that much worse.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I never believed what the Packers were saying about him being their starting RB last offseason, and if he did I didn't expect it to last, I thought he was perhaps the most over valued player in redraft last year, I do like his current price.
Not because I think he will be their main RB, but because with the departure of Nelson and Cobb seemingly always recovering from something, I think they need Montgomery to contribute more as a receiver this season than they have recently. The coaches won't talk about it most likely, but I can see Montgomery moving to WR more this year and having more targets in the passing game.
With an ADP of 143 in June and RB 48 overall, I think he offers some nice value, even if he is only 3rd on the team in rushing attempts by the end of the year.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
While I agree that he might have an expanded role due to their need for pass catchers, I'm not sure that translates to fantasy value. I think Montgomery has much more value to the Packers than he does to any fantasy owners. I'm avoiding all RBs here, this is a full blown timeshare in a pass happy offense with historically limited goal line carries. All 3 players are just good enough to ruin each other's value.
Zero were from the QB. I ran the DD for RB only. I'm not sure if DD lumps in FB with RB, but if it does, I believe Kuhn was good for about 1 TD per year.
So I think the lead back in GB has a very legitimate shot at ~8 TDs. The last time they had a true lead back was Lacy in 2014. He scored 9 on the ground and 4 through the air. Seven of those 13 TDs came at the goal line. Lacy averaged 15.4 carries per game and 2.6 receptions per game that year.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Jones isn't your prototypical goal line back. JW fits that role better, although at times he looked bad last year at it. I recall them going to Ripkowski eventually because JW was just running into his own players (earlier in the season however)
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Totally agree with this take. I think TyMo has more value this year than last in this offense as a gadget back, and can totally see GB using him more on passing downs. Super sneaky value this year as a flex back in PPR, IMHO.Biabreakable said:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If the ADP remains low (12th round in June) I don't see how it would hurt to pick up Montgomery and see what happens. If he does well early on and your not a believer, then perhaps a sell high opportunity. If he does nothing, no big loss to cut him at that price.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’m on board with this as long as he’s listed as a rb. I think his touches will be limited (read: monitored) but in any game where GB is running the 2 min drill guys like this can really make a mark. I’d also like to see the wr depth chart shake out a bit- if he seems to be getting slot work as well he could be very sneaky indeed.
az_prof
Footballguy
Evan Silva@evansilva
This article backs Aaron Jones as #Packers likeliest lead back in 2018, noting his explosive running ability & Aaron Rodgers' "unequivocal" support for Jones: https://amp.packersnews.com/amp/784765002?__twitter_impression=true …
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1019314831755829249
This article backs Aaron Jones as #Packers likeliest lead back in 2018, noting his explosive running ability & Aaron Rodgers' "unequivocal" support for Jones: https://amp.packersnews.com/amp/784765002?__twitter_impression=true …
https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1019314831755829249
tombonneau
Footballguy
I like Jones a lot and am seeing if I can buy cheap. For anyone who misses out on him, this article tipped me off to Mays:
Watching his self-posted YouTube highlights
and he looks like a pretty simple but effective back. GB has proven they are a very fluid backfield and there really is no serious capital invested in anyone, so who knows what could happen. He's radar-worthy at least.
az_prof
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah that sucks. Not good to get something like this so early. Rather have it in July than late August, but the guy can use all the reps he can get.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You do know these players have a similar injury history correct? Williams lost 2014 to a”major knee injury” and had a knee injury last year. Similarly Aaron Jones had MCL problems in college and an MCL sprain last year. TyMont has sickle cell and misses stretches of every season consequently. Your cutesy quote and lack of actual substance makes me believe you either don’t know that or you’re just wanting the wind to blow in the player you favor.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
You seem surprised. these trolls stroll in from time to time. eventually this discussion/debate will be squashed and we will all be talking about someone else.
zamboni
Footballguy
To be fair though, as of right now, Jones has some ground to cover between missing some practice and the two-game suspension. It's obviously Williams' and Montgomery's job to lose right now, and unless/until they get hurt or underperform, Jones will remain a situational player for the time being.
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Elevencents
Footballguy
No talk on this guy? The 2 game suspension normally would not be a huge deal anywhere else but with a 3 headed competition ongoing it’s pretty brutal. I think he is the best of the bunch that they have but wonder if they will give him the opportunity once Tymo or Williams get going.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Thanks Faust 
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Jamaal Williams has done nothing to show he can be the guy so far. all hes done is shown he hasn't ditched those cement shoes.
Jones has a chance to steal this backfield rather quickly once he serves his 2 game suspension.
make or break for all of these rbs
Jones has a chance to steal this backfield rather quickly once he serves his 2 game suspension.
make or break for all of these rbs
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
To completely steal this backfield he has to have improved in pass pro. That's his biggest barrier, not Williams or Montgomery although I don't think I'm as down on Williams as you are. There's a zero chance GB risks Rodgers getting blown up to get Jones on the field. For that reason, Jones is kind of off my radar in full PPR. Gun to my head I'd roster Montgomery at his price in that format. I'm also not too keen on the idea of allocating multiple bench spots to this backfield as some experts suggest.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I’m cool with this assessment. While I’d love to have some piece of GB backfield it is only attractive with a workhorse. Splitting up carries and targets is not ideal.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I grabbed him in the 9th as my RB5 in my latest draft. I looked back at the other 3 I have done and he has gone 8, 8, 9 and 10. Considering what’s generally left on the board at that point I think he’s worth a flyer if you already have your weekly starters.
JetMaxx
Footballguy
The best ability is availability and due to his health and stupidity he’s failing that test.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'd agree with this for the most part. pass pro was his biggest issue last year. one thing that hes worked on the most this offseason, but we have no idea if its improved
