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RB Aaron Jones, MIN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I wasnt sure if you were trolling or just honestly not following the guy this preseason
hes been coming back from a hamstring injury
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Am I crazy to view this guy as a potential league winner, or at least someone who becomes a great 9th/10th rd value pick?
I disagree with some who lump him in with Williams as being an average NFL talent.
He looked explosive in spots last season. I saw a great first step and a guy who clearly seemed to have more big play ability than JW and TM. Watching his runs last year and looking at Williams complete NFL body (over 150 carries), it is so evident to me, beyond the stats, that Jones is a better runner.
Pass Blocking may be the concern, but this looks like an athlete who could be meeting a great opportunity in one week.
1300 yards from scrimmage and 8-10 TDs is not a crazy thought for him in 14 gms.
I disagree with some who lump him in with Williams as being an average NFL talent.
He looked explosive in spots last season. I saw a great first step and a guy who clearly seemed to have more big play ability than JW and TM. Watching his runs last year and looking at Williams complete NFL body (over 150 carries), it is so evident to me, beyond the stats, that Jones is a better runner.
Pass Blocking may be the concern, but this looks like an athlete who could be meeting a great opportunity in one week.
1300 yards from scrimmage and 8-10 TDs is not a crazy thought for him in 14 gms.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Well that would suck as I dropped him for Ekeler (Gordon owner) in a short bench and want a share of that rushing offense.
If Rodgers isn't healthy obviously it takes a hit. I liked him enough to draft him but I think they still like Montgomery too much in passing downs and will be a healthy 3 way rotation and playing the hot-hand.
yes, most definitely crazy.He had 4 carries for 16 yards with a healthy Rodgers in the lineup.
Not sure how you can judge him when Chicago was basically daring Kizer to throw and blowing up the line. If you think Arm Tackle Aaron would've fared any better against defenders in the backfield, I don't know what to tell you.
That being said, Minnesota is possibly an even tougher defense than Chicago. The running game will almost certainly struggle in week 2.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Williams proved last week that he hasn't shed those cement shoes from last year. It all comes down to pass protection. If Jones made some strides there and he can protect Rodgers, then he will undoubtedly win the job. If not, then it's likely a RBBC with Jones being the most productive runner (not necessarily a league winner in that second example, but still valuable), but Williams being in there for most pass plays. Considering his ADP I would think any Jones owner would have to be looking forward to week 3.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Keep reaching... maybe Mr. Moist Diaper can break a 12 yard run this week. Nothing better than when your super sleeper still has only 1 15+ yard run in 25 career games.
He had 4 carries for 16 yards with a healthy Rodgers in the lineup.
Not sure how you can judge him when Chicago was basically daring Kizer to throw and blowing up the line. If you think Arm Tackle Aaron would've fared any better against defenders in the backfield, I don't know what to tell you.
That being said, Minnesota is possibly an even tougher defense than Chicago. The running game will almost certainly struggle in week 2.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
It’s really about opportunities. Jones had a good SPARQ score years ago, and I didn’t see anything in last year’s film to make me think his instincts were poor. In fact, I like what I see.
Look at what Connor did in week 1 for a good offense. The opportunity is there for someone to lead that backfield with 65+ percentage of touches-share in a given week.
Jones performed well last season as a runner, when given the chance. He had a few impressive one cut runs, where I liked how he read initial decision making. At work, or I’d add some clips.
Williams is not nearly as effective running the football. I conclude this, simply by watching the two guys last year. Forget the numbers...which favor Jones in a small sample.
Jones has the ability to run with a job in a good offense is my point. He probably has work to do in terms of rounding out his game as a receiver and in terms of blocking, but there is nothing in the numbers or on film that is exciting about JW or TM.
Time will tell, but I’m going to try and add Jones now in a few leagues.
Look at what Connor did in week 1 for a good offense. The opportunity is there for someone to lead that backfield with 65+ percentage of touches-share in a given week.
Jones performed well last season as a runner, when given the chance. He had a few impressive one cut runs, where I liked how he read initial decision making. At work, or I’d add some clips.
Williams is not nearly as effective running the football. I conclude this, simply by watching the two guys last year. Forget the numbers...which favor Jones in a small sample.
Jones has the ability to run with a job in a good offense is my point. He probably has work to do in terms of rounding out his game as a receiver and in terms of blocking, but there is nothing in the numbers or on film that is exciting about JW or TM.
Time will tell, but I’m going to try and add Jones now in a few leagues.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Dr. Dan’s cement shoes is probably a better descriptor of Williams running style.Mr. Moist Diaper?
Bojang is the thirstiest of all the Jones fans. He gets so worked up he doesn't even make sense half the time. Occasionally he'll throw a temper tantrum about how nobody should care about pass protection. It's pretty funny to watch.Mr. Moist Diaper?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
One of the best protections against a good defense is a balanced attack. Teams do not respect Williams' running ability, nor should they. To be fair to Williams, the Chicago defense is about as good as the Packers will face this year. However, he hasn't looked too good all preseason. It's very possible and likely Jones takes over the rushing duties if this continues. Pass protection remains to be seen at this point, but if it's unchanged then Williams will get playing time there, as that is his biggest strength.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Still makes more sense than touting an undersized plodder like he’s the next coming of Herschel Walker.
No, actual pass protection is still the best protection.
As for the preseason... (1) it's preseason, (2) he only had 7 carries, (3) Aaron Jones had 14 carries against 3rd team/practice squad scrubs and averaged 3.7 ypc, and (4) Ty Montgomery had 11 carries for 2.8 ypc.
It's possible but not likely. Packers are trying to keep Rodgers healthy and JW is better at that than Jones. They win games through the air. Not on the ground. The Chicago game and JW's key blitz pickup is perfect evidence of that.
Literally nobody has done this.
It's a strange world you live in, Mr. Bojangles. Interseptopus
Footballguy
I disagree with a lot of this, but we will find out in a few short weeks who is who, then we can put and end to all of this.No, actual pass protection is still the best protection.
As for the preseason... (1) it's preseason, (2) he only had 7 carries, (3) Aaron Jones had 14 carries against 3rd team/practice squad scrubs and averaged 3.7 ypc, and (4) Ty Montgomery had 11 carries for 2.8 ypc.
It's possible but not likely. Packers are trying to keep Rodgers healthy and JW is better at that than Jones. They win games through the air. Not on the ground. The Chicago game and JW's key blitz pickup is perfect evidence of that.
Literally nobody has done this.
Packers can win without a true work horse at RB. That's no doubt. They win through the air. But they need more than 3.1 YPC. Their last superbowl run they had 2 RBs with legitimate carries and they averaged 4.3 and 4.2 YPC. I don't see Williams ever averaging that. Yes, it's important to keep Rodgers healthy, but at the same time it's important to run the ball too every now and then. I'm looking forward to seeing a little life injected into that backfield week 3.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You have done so routinely. You can not care about preseason but when it is shown over and over again that JW not just a below average NFL runner but a severely deficient NFL runner it should not be ignored. I will continue to root for any athletic RB in GB to take over whether that be Jones, TyMont or Jackson so that I can have an actual useful fantasy asset instead of a TD dependent plodder who is barely a dart throw flex that only has use in half point per block leagues.No, actual pass protection is still the best protection.
As for the preseason... (1) it's preseason, (2) he only had 7 carries, (3) Aaron Jones had 14 carries against 3rd team/practice squad scrubs and averaged 3.7 ypc, and (4) Ty Montgomery had 11 carries for 2.8 ypc.
It's possible but not likely. Packers are trying to keep Rodgers healthy and JW is better at that than Jones. They win games through the air. Not on the ground. The Chicago game and JW's key blitz pickup is perfect evidence of that.
Literally nobody has done this.
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So what are you projecting for snap count splits once Jones comes back?No, actual pass protection is still the best protection.
As for the preseason... (1) it's preseason, (2) he only had 7 carries, (3) Aaron Jones had 14 carries against 3rd team/practice squad scrubs and averaged 3.7 ypc, and (4) Ty Montgomery had 11 carries for 2.8 ypc.
It's possible but not likely. Packers are trying to keep Rodgers healthy and JW is better at that than Jones. They win games through the air. Not on the ground. The Chicago game and JW's key blitz pickup is perfect evidence of that.
Literally nobody has done this.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Honestly don't know. Week 1 was 62%/38% with Montgomery rotating in every 3rd series and each guy playing every down in their series except for one instance where Ty was pulled so JW could stay in and block on like a 3rd and 23. So given that kind of rotation, maybe Jones gets every 4th series? Maybe he's just the odd man out until an injury? Really no idea. All I know is that he won't be getting 1300 YFS in his last 14 games if he even stays healthy for 14 games.
Yes. On average. But what surprised me the most was Montgomery coming in on just the 2nd series of the game and getting the entire series. It wasn't situational based on down and distance w/ Montgomery as CoP as many (me) presumed. Not sure if they trust Jones enough for a full series of all situations but can't see being able to predict anything until at least week 4.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
They really didn’t to my knowledge. Each had a stretch of being healthy and each was a workhorse during that period. Thing is though, this situation may be a bit overrated. I get the desire for it with it being a stud QB. Thought I read not long ago that the last top 24 GB RB was Lacy in ‘13 (not 100% sure on that). I’m sure some (possibly a lot) of that has to do with injuries but it still stands to reason that there could be some illusion of what this backfield represents in reality.
Elevencents
Footballguy
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gethugefast1
Footballguy
2017
Ty Montgomery
Regular Season: 71 rushes, 273 yards, 3.8 yards per carry, 3 rushing touchdowns; 23 catches, 173 yards, 7.5 yards per reception, 1 receiving touchdown; 0 fumbles
Jamaal Williams
153 rushes, 556 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 4 rushing touchdowns; 25 catches, 262 yards, 10.5 yards per reception, 2 receiving touchdowns; 0 fumbles
Aaron Jones
81 rushes, 448 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 4 rushing touchdowns; 9 catches, 22 yards, 2.4 yards per reception; 0 fumbles
Ty Montgomery
Regular Season: 71 rushes, 273 yards, 3.8 yards per carry, 3 rushing touchdowns; 23 catches, 173 yards, 7.5 yards per reception, 1 receiving touchdown; 0 fumbles
Jamaal Williams
153 rushes, 556 yards, 3.6 yards per carry, 4 rushing touchdowns; 25 catches, 262 yards, 10.5 yards per reception, 2 receiving touchdowns; 0 fumbles
Aaron Jones
81 rushes, 448 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 4 rushing touchdowns; 9 catches, 22 yards, 2.4 yards per reception; 0 fumbles
Interseptopus
Footballguy
1300 seems ridiculous, but 1000 yards is not at all crazy for 14 games for Jones. Based off last year's numbers in his 4 games as a starter, that would actually be a regression.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
If he’s the starter which, knowing McCarthy, won’t be a given and the assuming rational coaching... which, once again, McCarthy.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Eh, I won't get into the blame/excuse game. That's no different as those who continue to make excuses for Williams having a dismal 3.6 career YPC. If Jones is the best runner, and GB wants to run, he will run. If not, then it is what it is. Could be coaching, could be he's just not ready from a coaching standpoint.
I'm at the point where I firmly believe it's either going to be Jones winning the lead back role and being successful, or GB drafting a RB high next year. I could be wrong, and Williams could take those heavy shoes off and start to run like an actual RB, but I won't hold my breath.
ETA: Williams had some great blocks in week 1 against the rush and I do think that is a strong suit of him, and possibly might even see him as a 2nd RB in some formations as the "fullback" role, or even just in there on crucial passing downs such has the 2 minute drill when they aren't running the ball. But, in my league we don't get points for blocks so Jones is the most attractive fantasy option.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
It was one of his weak points last year, and something he reportedly was told to (and did) work on all offseason. He bulked up a bit in the legs to help with that as well. I don't think anyone can say if he is a better pass blocker or not, just as we couldn't say if Williams was a better runner or not until we saw him run in a regular season game
bostonfred
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Montgomery looked great. Williams looked awful. Against the same defense.
Grab your popcorn
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
All part of the plan my friend. The tough defensive matchups during the two week suspension only increased Jones’ preseason value, since those matchups decreased the likelihood that Williams or Montgomery would go off and solidify a role.
Everything is going according to plan. Bwahahahahaha.
etsbaldcat:skinsrule05
Footballguy
I think a big factor is Rogers health. He wasn't able to extend plays this past weekend. So they relied a lot on protecting him and gave up on the run. That is not a long term solution since they need to find a run game but it may be necessary until Rogers is healthy.
hardcoredx
Footballguy
Umm Jones goes down quicker than a $2 hooker , he’s a JAG. I don’t think Williams is much better but so far he’s got the track record to be healthy and produce like he did last season. This is going to be 50-60 % Williams share and the rest of the garbage backs getting the rest. They will probably draft a Rb next season.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
100% agree. Montgomery looked far superior to Williams vs the Vikings.Montgomery looked great. Williams looked awful. Against the same defense.
Grab your popcorn
skinsrule05
Footballguy
I know your trying to be funny to mask that you don’t have any backup for this assertion. What are your stats/rational for saying Jones is JAG? I agree with his knock of not being as good in pass protect.
Listening to a podcast this morning they had a good stat on him from last year:
Jones was just the 13th RB since 2000 to finish with .15 rushing net expected points per rush and a 50% success rate. Some of the other RBs who hit those marks were Priest Holmes, Michael Turner, Larry Johnson and Marshall Faulk.
It is some detailed stats and may not be repeatable but when you are mentioned in the same breath as those guys it is tough to say he is JAG.
hardcoredx
Footballguy
The stats are meaningless in a small sample. I’m watching the film- does he move the pile? No. Does he consistently land forward like real rbs do? No he doesn’t. The guy is a COP back, he can’t even stay healthy with a normal workload.
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
skinsrule05 said:
Literally falls forward and moves the pile on every play 3 weeks agohardcoredx said:
You can question his blocking (maybe?) but I don’t recall hearing anything bad about it in practice or pre-season. His tape as a runner and receiver show great potential.
Mark Football
Footballguy
It looks like he has pretty good hands. He didn't have many receptions last year when he played. Is that just because rodgers doesn't need to throw short? Was jones a good pass catcher in college?
Interseptopus
Footballguy
hardcoredx said:
Keep clinging to that
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Depends on what you look for in a pass catcher. Film guys said he had deficiencies, I would say his college target share suggested he was used as a weapon out of the backfield and that it would suggest his use as a more complete back. Last season though, he did lack as a pass catcher which is one of the arguments the Williams drones would make that on top of his blocking deficiency he didn’t get used out of the backfield a lot. Here’s the thing though, Rodgers is a gun slinger. He shoots the ball downfield. Throughout his career his TE’s and RB’s have suffered because he’s not like most QB’s in the league in that regard.
