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Dynasty Watch - Chris Godwin WR Tampa Bay

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On 3/13/2019 at 9:58 AM, Ilov80s said:

Maybe but who were his TEs in Arizona? That was a weakness on the offense. When he was the OC in Pitt, Heath Miller averaged 77 targets a year which is what Trey Burton got last year. I think OJ's talent and the increased emphasis on the passing game should place OJ in the range of 80-95 targets. 

Is anyone really going to be excited about OJ Howard if he gets 5.0-5.5 targets per game?   I'm not sure that will be sufficient to live up to the expectations embedded in his current dynasty value.

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5 minutes ago, Alex P Keaton said:

Is anyone really going to be excited about OJ Howard if he gets 5.0-5.5 targets per game?   I'm not sure that will be sufficient to live up to the expectations embedded in his current dynasty value.

90 targets is pretty good. Only 5 TEs got more than that last year. Maybe I’m not really aware of what his dynasty value is. I usually assume unless it’s a TE that has already broken out like Kelce or Kittle that the value is a bit repressed outside of 2 TE leagues 

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Bucs GM Jason Licht said Chris Godwin can play inside "much like Larry Fitzgerald did" for the Cardinals.

"I'm not saying he's Larry Fitzgerald by any means yet, but play the role like Larry did in Arizona," Licht confirmed. "That made [Humphries] a little easier to swallow." Fitzgerald of course posted three straight 1,000-yard campaigns and led the Cards in targets while playing primarily from the slot under coach Bruce Arians from 2015-2017. This is also a plus for second-year 91st-percentile SPARQ standout Justin Watson as the former fifth-rounder is suddenly a candidate to start outside opposite of Mike Evans this upcoming season. Basked with an athletically-gifted three-wide set and downfield play-calling mentality in 2019, the sky's the limit for Jameis Winston and Co. heading into offseason workouts.

SOURCE: Greg Auman on Twitter

Mar 25, 2019, 3:02 PM

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Bucs coach Bruce Arians said Chris Godwin can be "close to a 100-catch guy."

As Bucs GM Jason Licht said on Monday, the expectation is Godwin will play more in the slot under Arians, a position which facilitated three 100-catch seasons in a row from
Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Much like last season, the Bucs' passing game is set up to dominate, and Godwin should play a big role. He is a great trade target in Dynasty formats.

SOURCE: Greg Auman on Twitter

Mar 26, 2019, 9:14 AM

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It feels like Godwin's value will increase all offseason due to stories and hype like the above.  It seems like every offseason there are OTA and training camp darlings that get a ton of positive buzz throughout the offseason.  Godwin looks like he'll be mentioned pretty frequently due to the obvious excitement over Arains and Godwin's role in the offense. 

I'm not going to be surprised to see his ADP rise multiple rounds before the season starts.  Most of it is probably deserved in this case, the upside is huge. 

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17 hours ago, stuckinthemuck said:

Godwin is the new Kenny Golladay. 

But on a much better offense.

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18 hours ago, stuckinthemuck said:

Godwin is the new Kenny Golladay. 

Is that a good thing? I am hoping for more than 70-1000-5....especially in the TD column. He has decent competition for targets and a lot will depend on Winston progressing. Arians is a positive for the passing game and Godwin landed 7 TDs last season so the upside is there. Definitely will be on peoples radar to make a leap this coming year so he may not be a value come draft day. 

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He has tons of momentum in the offseason: He’s better than Evans! He’s going to catch 100 passes! Dynasty owners are watching his adp rise rapidly. I love his talent but selling when the offer values him as a low end WR1. 

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22 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Is that a good thing? I am hoping for more than 70-1000-5....especially in the TD column. He has decent competition for targets and a lot will depend on Winston progressing. Arians is a positive for the passing game and Godwin landed 7 TDs last season so the upside is there. Definitely will be on peoples radar to make a leap this coming year so he may not be a value come draft day. 

Agree that I'd like more TDs, but that's a decent wr2. I'd be happy with that from him . 

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11 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

overvalued already

 

People are calling him a top 15 WR in the dynasty trade thread, so I agree.

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32 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

People are calling him a top 15 WR in the dynasty trade thread, so I agree.

Is wr15 really that ridiculous? Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Golladay, Cooper, Edelman are all WRs in that range. I dont think its ridiculous to say Godwin could get there. 

In last years offense, competing with Humphries and Jackson he was 45 fantasy points away from last years WR15. over 100 targets are lost from FA. All he needs is am extra 3 fp/g to make it to wr15 from 2018 standards.

So if he gets only 20% of the available targets, its conceivable that he could he a top 15 WR

ETA: actually 150 targets are lost to FA... 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Is wr15 really that ridiculous? Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Golladay, Cooper, Edelman are all WRs in that range. I dont think its ridiculous to say Godwin could get there. 

Is it ridiculous? I guess not. Is it overhyped? In my opinion, yes. I like Bruce Arians as much as the next guy but I'm not expecting miracles in a Jaemis Winston led offense (and I also like Winston more than a lot of people here). Mike Evans is a top 15 WR, I don't see two in TB. While they lost some targets, I also see OJ Howard, Justin Watson, Brate, and any potential rookie RBs or WRs they bring in picking up some of that slack as well.

I don't see what bringing up those other guys proves since it makes sense they are in the top 15 range. Now I'm not saying I would be shocked to see Godwin put up the numbers to end up there but I do think it's premature to call him a top 15 dynasty WR - I see that as hype. Sometimes hype takes the next step though.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Is it ridiculous? I guess not. Is it overhyped? In my opinion, yes. I like Bruce Arians as much as the next guy but I'm not expecting miracles in a Jaemis Winston led offense (and I also like Winston more than a lot of people here). Mike Evans is a top 15 WR, I don't see two in TB. While they lost some targets, I also see OJ Howard, Justin Watson, Brate, and any potential rookie RBs or WRs they bring in picking up some of that slack as well.

I don't see what bringing up those other guys proves since it makes sense they are in the top 15 range. Now I'm not saying I would be shocked to see Godwin put up the numbers to end up there but I do think it's premature to call him a top 15 dynasty WR - I see that as hype. Sometimes hype takes the next step though.

I just bring up those names because if you said Tyler Lockett was going to be WR16 this time last year you would have been laughed out of the room. 

 

I think Godwin is a bit over hyped. I dont blame his owners for being excited. This situation is exactly why I traded for him this time last year. I'm excited to see what he can do. I have my doubts about Winston, but I'm ncouraged to see that a qb carousel last year produced a WR1 (9th), WR2 (24th), flex (wr27) and Jackson who was great when he was active, but finished 42. 

I think this offense will be better in 2019, and I see no reason why it can't produce a wr1, and high end wr2. 

Winston is the wildcard. If they had even Eli Manning I would be more excited. As it stands I see Godwin with WR2 floor, which should get all of his owners pretty stoked, and I think the numbers support this expectation 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Is wr15 really that ridiculous? Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry, Golladay, Cooper, Edelman are all WRs in that range. I dont think its ridiculous to say Godwin could get there. 

In last years offense, competing with Humphries and Jackson he was 45 fantasy points away from last years WR15. over 100 targets are lost from FA. All he needs is am extra 3 fp/g to make it to wr15 from 2018 standards.

So if he gets only 20% of the available targets, its conceivable that he could he a top 15 WR

ETA: actually 150 targets are lost to FA... 

I'm bullish on Godwin for all the same reasons. But just as an aside, the bolded is why I think Evans will be in play for the overall WR1.

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On 3/27/2019 at 7:01 AM, Tool said:

But on a much better offense.

Which is offset by a target hog playing opposite him.

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7 hours ago, gpthatsme said:

Top WR Duos

I’m surprised the Tampa Tandem aren’t mentioned in this article. They would rank above a couple of the ones mentioned in my opinion. 

Tampa should be there instead of Seattle and Philly, at the very least.

I also have problem with the author saying that Cooks/Woods is the duo in LA when it should be Kupp/Cooks.  And Houston should be Hopkins/Coutee, Fuller can't ever stay the field for more than three games per season.

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I'm bullish on Godwin for all the same reasons. But just as an aside, the bolded is why I think Evans will be in play for the overall WR1.

yes I think Evans is in line for an awesome season. IMO some changes at the top of the fantasy wr list are going to happen this year

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On 3/26/2019 at 12:01 PM, stuckinthemuck said:

Godwin is the new Kenny Golladay. 

He's younger too.  Godwin just turned 23.  Golladay was still in college when he was the age Godwin is now. 

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Final Takeaways from Bucs OTAs

Excerpt:

Quote

Second-year receiver Chris Godwin is also looking forward to a bit of a role change that will see him line up all over the field and he’s a solid target. So much so, that Head Coach Bruce Arians stands by his previous statement of just how much work Godwin could get this season:

“I had high expectations," Arians said of Godwin. "And they're even higher now. He hasn't done anything to diminish what I thought he would be and as he learns how to play in that slot and read things a little bit more, he's made great progress, I think I'll stand by my 100-catch announcement."

 

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Godwin passes up Evans as WR1 in this offense someday 

According to DLF it was reported someone overheard the coaches saying this within the last 2 years of training camps. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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46 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

As a new Godwin owner this is music to my ears

I dont see why it's so absurd to some that TB could have 2 highly productive WRs similar to CIN, MIN, DET... average to below average teams that have had 2 valuable fantasy wrs. Evans/Godwin is at least as good as AJ Green/Boyd, Diggs/Theilen, or Jones/Tate

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I dont see why it's so absurd to some that TB could have 2 highly productive WRs similar to CIN, MIN, DET... average to below average teams that have had 2 valuable fantasy wrs. Evans/Godwin is at least as good as AJ Green/Boyd, Diggs/Theilen, or Jones/Tate

It's not. 

Julio/Ridley

Cooks/Woods/Kupp

ABrown/Juju

Jordy Nelson/Cobb

Nelson/James Jones

Adams/somebody in 2019

Going back a little more:

Marshall/Jeffery

Moss/Carter

Smith/Muhammad

Fitzgerald/Boldin

Rice/Taylor

Clayton/Duper

Chad Johnson/TJ Houshmanzada (sp?)

 

The list goes on and on. I can't find the Waldman article but he makes a compelling case that many WR1 seasons are accompanied by a teammate that also has a WR1 or a WR2 season. And if you include the top pass catching TEs then the list can be even longer in terms of offenses that can support two top receivers.

There is absolutely no reason Tampa can't do it too.

 

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Traded Godwin for a 2nd in March last year in an FFPC you have to cut down to 14 position players  :wall:

Traded the 3.07 in July last year during our draft for Godwin in another kind of league where you have DTS :pickle:

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On 6/1/2019 at 10:03 AM, Dr. Dan said:

I dont see why it's so absurd to some that TB could have 2 highly productive WRs similar to CIN, MIN, DET... average to below average teams that have had 2 valuable fantasy wrs. Evans/Godwin is at least as good as AJ Green/Boyd, Diggs/Theilen, or Jones/Tate

Which of those teams has a high end tight end though? 

I like both Godwin and Howard quite a bit, however I'm concerned that they will cut into one another because they both deserve a lot of targets. 

If the offense is really good though and the RBs aren't getting passing game targets, maybe the pie is big enough for all 3 of Evans, Godwin and Howard.  I doubt it tho, I seem to remember even the Colts offenses in the Manning Era only really supporting two of Wayne, Harrison and Clarke at the same time...

Have we seen 2 WRs and a TE get over 1000 yards in the same season?  

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20 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

Which of those teams has a high end tight end though? 

I like both Godwin and Howard quite a bit, however I'm concerned that they will cut into one another because they both deserve a lot of targets. 

If the offense is really good though and the RBs aren't getting passing game targets, maybe the pie is big enough for all 3 of Evans, Godwin and Howard.  I doubt it tho, I seem to remember even the Colts offenses in the Manning Era only really supporting two of Wayne, Harrison and Clarke at the same time...

Have we seen 2 WRs and a TE get over 1000 yards in the same season?  

How many of Arians teams have utilized a TE to the extent that Howard been in previous seasons? 

Arians tends to not use them at all. And maybe it's a talent vs system thing, but it certainly has some merit to the discussion. Yes, this limits Godwins upside if Howard is heavily involved 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

Have we seen 2 WRs and a TE get over 1000 yards in the same season?  

1980 Chargers

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Sounds like he pulled his hammy in Bucs/Dolphins scrimmage. Starting to see why players hate these inter-squad practices.

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50 minutes ago, Iceman03 said:

Sounds like he pulled his hammy in Bucs/Dolphins scrimmage. Starting to see why players hate these inter-squad practices.

Nah, he's good.

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55 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

we were touting this guy last preseason as a breakout candidate, and he fizzled.did we not learn anything?

I think the difference is target share. He had Humphries and Jackson to contend with...those guys are gone and he is a year more experienced (remember he is only going into his third season).

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The dude is a beast. Just get him the ball, he's a top talent. And to be honest his counterpart, Mike Evans, last season was a huge disappointment.

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21 minutes ago, thehoch said:

The dude is a beast. Just get him the ball, he's a top talent. And to be honest his counterpart, Mike Evans, last season was a huge disappointment.

Not sure how you argue 1500 receiving yards as a disappointment.

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Godwin, even as the 4th or 5th option last year, was a redzone magnet. 

If he produces the same TDs from last year and sees half of the targets vacated by Jackson and Hunpheries then he stands to finish much higher than most people have him

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edit: nevermind, idk what the heck I was looking at....

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Godwin is primed to have a great year.  He is talented and moved up a couple of spots in the pecking order.  Consider me part of the hype machine.  

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3 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

Not sure how you argue 1500 receiving yards as a disappointment.

I had him in fantasy. He sucked.

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35 minutes ago, thehoch said:

I had him in fantasy. He sucked.

What does “I had him in fantasy” mean? Do you have access to info we don’t since he was on your team?

he finished as the 9th WR. He didn’t suck. 

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

What does “I had him in fantasy” mean? Do you have access to info we don’t since he was on your team?

he finished as the 9th WR. He didn’t suck. 

Maybe it was two years ago. I can't remember. Anyway, I don't care for him. You can draft him with your pertty little lips all day long Cletus.

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13 minutes ago, thehoch said:

Maybe it was two years ago. I can't remember. Anyway, I don't care for him. You can draft him with your pertty little lips all day long Cletus.

solid take.  I miss the shark pool

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18 minutes ago, thehoch said:

Maybe it was two years ago. I can't remember. Anyway, I don't care for him. You can draft him with your pertty little lips all day long Cletus.

 

You say you had him and he sucked, it's pointed out he had 86/1524/8 last year, and now you're not sure what year you're talking about. 

Sounds like you don't actually know what point you're trying to make other than pushing an agenda. 

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2 hours ago, thehoch said:

I had him in fantasy. He sucked.

I had him in real life.  he was magnificent.

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2 hours ago, thehoch said:

I had him in fantasy. He sucked.

What the hell kind of nonsense is this?

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