btemp
Footballguy
And he then got injured. Koetter doesn't plan on giving him that load again because they recognized that he couldn't handle it. He had 3 games of RB1 carries and broke down.
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2017 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter daylight
- Start date
Think this is supposed to be Matt Jones. Seahawks just added Mike Davis to their practice squad.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Notable cuts: Bills release backup Jonathan Williams
Personally I think Williams had more promise than Banyard does.
Joe Banyard I guess?
Personally I think Williams had more promise than Banyard does.
daylight
Footballguy
daylight
Footballguy
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Not Mixon. Not Bernard. Don't wanna jinx my Bengals though :( would be bad news if the other guy got a ton of play but plauisible and if he does play a ton could be a 11-TD guy even with a YPC of 3.5
-QG
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
He's saying that Jeremy Hill might qualify as a "Lotto Ticket" since he could literally be acquired for $1 or less in 82% of ESPN leagues.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like Perines potential to become a really good RB more than the other two options but at this time he seems to have the least opportunity.
If someone dropped Perine I would definitely try to make room for him. Whoever else you are picking up would need to be pretty good for me to want to do that.
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daylight
Footballguy
I see. Thanks for the clarification (I get accused of being too literal all the time - lots of subtleties go right over my head).
Only owned 18% in ESPN leagues? Well, they are what they are.
In that case I would work hard to find a roster spot for him but do not think he has the "combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload" to be called a Lotto Ticket. Just my opinion. Added him to the Honorable Mentions @QuizGuy66.
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Ted Stickles
Footballguy
TZMarkie
Footballguy
Good question LongBL..............
These situations are difficult, and the type ones I pine over, seemingly for days early on in seasons. The good news is usually it won't make or break your season. But, if you can guess the right one and the "right breaks happen", he may help you win down the stretch.
I think you are correct in assuming Smallwood is a keeper. There have been plenty of rumors on Blount, even some that say he is a cut candidate. I don't see that as a possibility, but there is at least some smoke there, and Blount hasn't done well in that scheme. Regardless, at this point you have to keep Smallwood. (but more on that in a minute)
So which one would I cut, if I had to choose between the other two? I would take roster construction into consideration AND EVERYTHING even as small as bye weeks later on in the season. Does that make a difference to your roster?
All that aside, I look for a few small things. Which one of these two, would (in the event of a catastrophe to the teams RBs) truly take the big workload...?
SAMAJE PERINE - Well Chris Thompson is just a 3rd down type guy, but a few times the Skins had to use him a little more than just a few scant 3rd down touches, he hasn't really jumped off the screen. He is solid, but nothing you want to try and win a championship on. (he is just not a 100 yard a game type guy) I believe Perine is a fair pass catcher, though he wasn't called on to do much of that in college, from what I can see. Not much experience there, but he is just versatile enough where he could do 3 down work here and there if needed. He is more of the "16 for 100" type guy if he gets the workload than Thompson. He isn't the fastest, but fairly shifty and he runs with power as well. So he is one that can definitely be that "16 for 100" guy, if the situation comes up.
JAMAAL WILLIAMS - The Packers seem to like TY Montgomery, but even so, they drafted Williams and Aaron Jones as well. I believe yesterday both made the final cut. I don't know much about Williams,, other than he is NOT the Eddie Lacy massive "punch it in type of guy". He is more along the Jordan Howard mold. But the key here is, you still have TY Montgomery and Aaron Jones. (Do they even still have Ripkowski or did he get cut) But, I just don't see the Packers having this 100 yards+ type back, since they throw, throw, throw. You would have to depend on a few TDs as well then right? Or would hope so. You still have Aaron Jones looming, but I don't think thats the real threat, only one of the pieces that make me sway the other way, and thats to Perine.
So in this scenario, if all the chips fell just right, Perine has the highest upside between the two, in my opinion.
One thing on Smallwood. Just keep watching this scenario with him. There is someone named Donnell Pumphrey there as well. But there has been plenty of Sproles talk this offseason, and how he is likely to play a big role still, in what may be his final season. No matter what happens with Blount, Sproles will be a factor here. So while he seems to have the easiest path to "some" work, I don't know you will get those big numbers. If Blount is indeed cut or traded etc, then the situation might change.
All things equal, the true lottery ticket here (that I would want to own) is Perine, but the last thing to consider, is he may well work into the job on his own, and that doesn't even need an injury. In 6-7 weeks, he might be the starter on talent alone, as Rob watches from the bench. So injury+upside+possible workload+ might take over on his own, SAMAJE PERINE would be the one for me.
Oddly enough, in the only spot I got Robert Kelley this year, someone took Perine right behind me,and I couldn't get him as a cuff. I never had a chance to get him later. What can you do.
Don't forget, you can always try and shop Williams to the TY Montgomery owner. (rather than outright drop him) In the one league I have Montgomery, I have Williams tucked in on my bench there too.
TZM
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Ty had 2 fumbles in 77 carries, and has fumbled his preseason if memory serves. I could see Williams vulture some tds and has probably earned some carries anyway. If Ty puts it on the ground though, Williams could get even more work. Sure the packers pass a lot, but their run game the last few years has been bad. I'm sure they would like to run, especially to keep their suspect defense off the field.
Rove!
Footballguy
higgins
Footballguy
I'm not a hater but that link isn't exactly earth shattering -- in 19 plays, he has to break hand/arm tackles 5 times and has exactly 1 play where he breaks multiple tackles, all of which is more a product of blocking wide open lanes than his elusiveness. He does have good speed for a big guy but I saw exactly zero special qualities. Good luck, though...
Bills coach Sean McDermott said Monday that RB Jonathan Williams, released Sunday, did "everything we asked" and dismissed the idea that Williams was not "buying in" to team's culture. McDermott also said Williams had a "good preseason" and special teams played a role in Bills instead keeping Joe Banyard and Taiwan Jones at running back.
Mike Rodak, ESPN Staff Writer
Mike Rodak, ESPN Staff Writer
daylight
Footballguy
Ripkowski is still on the team.
And they drafted THREE rookie running backs - ALL of which made the team: Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones and Devante Mays. And Mays seemed to out-play Jones in the pre-season.
I love Ty Montgomery the NFL player but there must be some pretty significant reasons why Thompson retained 3 rookie RBs and a fullback.
Just sayin'
daylight
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
You are forgetting one thing, and as a Houston homer, Miller is TRASH. Those "arm tackles" would have brought Miller down. It's only a matter of time until it is a split or the Foreman show.I'm not a hater but that link isn't exactly earth shattering -- in 19 plays, he has to break hand/arm tackles 5 times and has exactly 1 play where he breaks multiple tackles, all of which is more a product of blocking wide open lanes than his elusiveness. He does have good speed for a big guy but I saw exactly zero special qualities. Good luck, though...
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Derrick Henry is the obvious one, but he's an expensive ticket. I like these guys:
Brandon Oliver
Thomas Rawls
Matt Breida
Jalen Richard (he is the number 2, not Washington and its been that way all camp and preseason)
Jamaal Williams
Brandon Oliver
Thomas Rawls
Matt Breida
Jalen Richard (he is the number 2, not Washington and its been that way all camp and preseason)
Jamaal Williams
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Going by the official depth chart the team put out, plus every other depth chart posted on the internet.
The only reports against that were that Washington had been working with the 2nd team in some practices from a beat writer a month ago. There were like 700 articles about this same beat writer blurb in the the first week of August (which is probably why everyone believes it - echo chamber sports media grabbed hold), then the team posted their official depth chart a week later with Richard as the #2 back and... sports media crickets. That team official depth chart has yet to change in favor of Washington.
I'm trusting the official team-published depth chart over who is working with who at the beginning of camp, especially since the Raiders made a point of saying that they were having an open competition. It's definitely nothing definitive.
Richard was also very good last year in his limited touches, and is better in both the running game and the passing game (IMO) than Washington.
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[scooter]
Footballguy
Richard listed #2 on depth chart at Raiders.com, NFL.com and ESPN.com. Footballguys has him #3.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Hmmm yeah, I wonder why Footballguys knows better than the team?
The team's official depth chart is meaningful to me, that is how the players know where they stand.
whiskey7
Footballguy
Rotoworld has Washington ahead of Richard.
"Jalen Richard managed one yard on his lone carry but caught a 13-yard pass in the Raiders' third preseason game.
Richard was the third back to play behind Marshawn Lynch and DeAndre Washington. Washington seems to be slightly ahead of Richard on the depth chart, although the two would likely share work evenly where Lynch to go down. Aug 27 - 1:30 AM"
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Hmmm, Well I guess I should have said every other depth chart I looked at (Team site, Ourlads, RosterResource).
It could definitely be that I'm wrong, but the team depth chart has made updates since the original one that shows two players in the starting role (as if it's still being decided) when the orignal depth chart published by the team did not.
If Richard and Washington were in a toss up for the #2 spot, you would think it would say Richard/Washington instead of clearly indicating 2nd string and 3rd string. For RT they now have Alexander/Newhouse (before it was Alexander) listed as the starter and Smith/Carrie at RCB (Before it was just Smith as the starter). So they have updated it to show positions that aren't decided since the original team depth chart released, but they did not move Washington ahead of Richard or even say "Richard/Washington" on the 2nd string running back line.
I'm reading wayyyy to much into this...
This is the depth chart i'm talking about that has 2 positions undecided with both players listed as starter: http://www.raiders.com/team/depth-chart.html
It could definitely be that I'm wrong, but the team depth chart has made updates since the original one that shows two players in the starting role (as if it's still being decided) when the orignal depth chart published by the team did not.
If Richard and Washington were in a toss up for the #2 spot, you would think it would say Richard/Washington instead of clearly indicating 2nd string and 3rd string. For RT they now have Alexander/Newhouse (before it was Alexander) listed as the starter and Smith/Carrie at RCB (Before it was just Smith as the starter). So they have updated it to show positions that aren't decided since the original team depth chart released, but they did not move Washington ahead of Richard or even say "Richard/Washington" on the 2nd string running back line.
I'm reading wayyyy to much into this...
This is the depth chart i'm talking about that has 2 positions undecided with both players listed as starter: http://www.raiders.com/team/depth-chart.html
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whiskey7
Footballguy
Richard may well prove to be the better fantasy player to own. I do think he's the more explosive of the two. I merely wanted to point out there are some sites listing him behind Washington so that is likely why some folks are curious about a statement that Richard is the 2 and has been all pre-season. If the 3rd game was the dress rehearsal, Lynch and Washington did get in before Richard. 
hamsterdam
Footballguy
I think it'll be a committee if Lynch goes down, just like last year when Murray went down.
foxco
Footballguy
You're probably right, though it seems slightly odd that Washington logged far more touches in the preseason. I took him late in one draft based on this, but I'm far from convinced he'd be useful. Still, I did like him coming out last year so you never know...
Weebs210
Footballguy
Right now my two favorite tickets are Brieda and Foreman. O'Brien just said Foreman has a chance to play week 1. Miller is just so pedestrian, guy should not be a bell cow. Are we missing the most obvious lotto ticket though? Char. West. Hunt is completely unproven at this point and the OC just said today both backs will get touches. I grabbed him in all my leagues to see how Thursday plays out. Even better in yahoo leagues where u can drop him after Thursday for a kicker.
joey
Footballguy
As a Raider homer I would say that, in redraft, I would spend lottery tickets at RB otuside of Washington and Richard. It's a toss up, imo. Seemed to be going Richard's way mid-last year, when Washington wasn't even active for a few games, but then Washington came back and they split carries if I recall. This year, I don't think any of us have a clue what would happen if Lynch went down, which screams "look elsewhere for an RB lottery ticket" to me.
In dynasty, btw, I do own Richard since I like his explosiveness combined with powerful running style (unexpected for his size, imo).
In dynasty, btw, I do own Richard since I like his explosiveness combined with powerful running style (unexpected for his size, imo).
mnmplayer
Footballguy
I have the following stashed at the end of benches:
Dion Lewis (most talented RB on team and not getting even drafted)
J Charles (Yeah I know he's old but had some good runs in pre-season that I saw he still has most of it left) and a plodder in front of him that cant stay healthy.
Foreman (best risk/reward to start outside the big5 rookie RBs at fraction of price imo) Lamar had the stage last season and showed he isn't suited to this role. I can't help but see Ricky Williams when I watch this guy run.
Tarik Cohen. I really like his tape this pre-season. Plays larger than his size and quick as a whip. Good compliment to the starter as COP.
Matt Brieda. Another glass jaw in front of him and was outplaying Williams for 2nd spot even before injury.
Dion Lewis (most talented RB on team and not getting even drafted)
J Charles (Yeah I know he's old but had some good runs in pre-season that I saw he still has most of it left) and a plodder in front of him that cant stay healthy.
Foreman (best risk/reward to start outside the big5 rookie RBs at fraction of price imo) Lamar had the stage last season and showed he isn't suited to this role. I can't help but see Ricky Williams when I watch this guy run.
Tarik Cohen. I really like his tape this pre-season. Plays larger than his size and quick as a whip. Good compliment to the starter as COP.
Matt Brieda. Another glass jaw in front of him and was outplaying Williams for 2nd spot even before injury.
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Comes up every year about this time, but team depth charts on websites are posted by the team PR guys. The coaches dont do it, and no telling how often they update them.
Sometimes they even get used to send messages, or soothe egos.
Washington did tend to see the field ahead of Richard in preseason, which is more significant to me than a team website.
Sometimes they even get used to send messages, or soothe egos.
Washington did tend to see the field ahead of Richard in preseason, which is more significant to me than a team website.
I'm with you on Foreman. I can see O'Brien giving him a look if Miller plays as bad as he did last year
beerbuff
Footballguy
I have Lynch and had him handcuffed with Washington but I just dropped him for Breida since I also see the possibility of a committee and a more probable Hyde injury.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Correction, they didn't even have Starks. They had Montgomery and Rip. Montgomery is the man and Jones has looked better than Williams. I see Jones as Montgomery's backup and Williams as the 3rd down back.
daylight
Footballguy
A bump and updates based on recent comments.
Thoughts on how I broke it up between Candidates and Honorables? Especially is Mike Tolbert now the #2 - is he a potential King Maker if Shady goes down?
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A
Thoughts on how I broke it up between Candidates and Honorables? Especially is Mike Tolbert now the #2 - is he a potential King Maker if Shady goes down?
The definition of this thread is generally PREEMPTIVE in re-draft:
To paraphrase @TZMarkie from last year: "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season...The point is, regardless of however you see it, and whatever your league preference and/or breakdown may be, in most cases a typical owner (think redraft with 5-7 bench spots) will only be able to truly "take a shot" on one or two of these guys".
Candidates for "Season Changing"/"Champion Maker" RBs for re-draft 2017 going forward - Here is my Pre-Week-1 list, LOOSELY ranked:
- TEN Derrick Henry - I realize he was drafted in most leagues but if he isn't...
- PIT James Conner - personally I have noticed over the years that players who hold out (L Bell) all summer and pre-season tend to get hurt
- GB Jamaal Williams - per @Dope - I think he's establishing himself as 1b with his camp. One missed Pass Protection from Ty that scrambles A-aron's brain, and the roles flip and Jamal takes the Lacy role.
- GB Aaron Jones - suggested by @icehouse : not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role.
- NE Dion Lewis - his ADP was really low this summer - per @Dope - Talent wise, he should be 1st. But it's Belichek. And an incredibly crowded backfield. No way he becomes the feature. Not that I see anyway.
- NE Rex Burkhead - per @Ilov80s - I would think Rex Burkhead NE applies still. The roles in NE could be messy but he's the only NE back with the combo of size and receiving ability to if injuries or poor performance befall other backfield mates - per @hardcoredx : Burkhead has the size to move the chains and is probably the best all around back in NE with Lewis. I see Gillislee and White as specialists.
- NO Alvin Kamara (PPR leagues only)
- SF Matt Breida - I am including him in the Candidate List out of respect for Shannahan's offense
- ARIZONA - David Johnson's Backup: Kerwynn Williams or Andre Ellington ?
- DEN J Charles - suggested by @mnmplayer
- PIT Terrell Watson? (instead of James Conner)?
- OAK - which non-Lynch RB? per @Dope - OAK - Richard - Total guess. This is a blind spot for me. I totally do not believe in Marshawn, but the Oakland line is top rated...so someone is going to benefit. - per @joey : it'll be a 50/50 split between Washington and Richard.That said, Richard looked like the more explosive and well-rounded runner last year to my eyes
- IND Mack
- IND Matt Jones
- PHI W Smallwood -
- PHI Pumphrey - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- PHI Clement - per @groin pains : Pumphrey or Clement may be the dart throw there as far as a lottery ticket goes
- TBB Jacquizz Rodgers
- TBB Peyton Barber suggested by @btemp
- KCC K Hunt per @Arodin: K. Hunt is the new golden prospect, but rooks have a tendency to wear down, and anybody can get hurt.
- KCC C West per @Arodin: Don't sleep on C. West, who had success as a feature back the same time Ware did, and could,jump,into the role again if something happens to Hunt.
- WAS Samaje Perine - per @hardcoredx : looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- CHI Tarik Cohen -suggested by @Franknbeans and @groin pains - per @King of the Jungle : I think Cohen can be special however I am concerned with Chicago's ability to utilize him to his fullest.
- SEA CJ Prosise suggested by @Boston
- SEA Chris Carson suggested by @groin pains
- HOU D'Onta Foreman suggested by @yellowdog
- DEN rookie DeAngelo Henderson - per @hardcoredx: looks like a good RB, probably the best RB on the roster. I fully expect him to be the lead back in the 2nd half.
- DEN D Booker
- DAL A Morris
- CIN J Hill - per @QuizGuy66 : only owned in 18% of ESPN leagues...
- NYG S Vareen - per @Boston : I think Shane Vereen has lotto potential...unless Perkins picks things up that backfield does not have much talent...it is a solid offense so there will be opportunity for an RB to put up numbers...this is odd to say but when you look at their depth chart Vereen could actually be the most talented RB on the roster...if you look at his numbers (and by no means is it a big sample size) when he got hurt last year it looked like he was starting to carve out a nice role for himself that could produce some sneaky fantasy points...fast-forward to this season and not much has changed in that unit except Gallman coming in and Jennings going...he seems to be a forgotten guy (for good reason) but could be worth a flyer as an end of daft option...
- LAR Malcolm Brown - suggested by @crowe1130 : Clear backup to Gurley
- ATL Tevin Coleman - suggested by @icehouse
- SF Joe Williams - SEP 3 PUT ON INJURED RESERVE - per @groin pains - Early reports are Matt Breida has leap frogged Joe Williams - - per @Weebs210 (re-posting from another thread) You are all wrong. Matt Breida. He has out played Williams and is locked into the number two role. We all know Hyde can't stay healthy. Can't remember what website but it puts Hyde at an 87% chance of being injured. Breida could easily play the Coleman role out the gate for Shannahan with a possibility for more playing time behind an oft injured Hyde. The guy had crazy Sparq scores (like McKinnon except Breida has played rb his whole life). You heard it here first. Grab him while he is free.
- FREE AGENT Jonathan Williams
From Matt Bitonti of Football Guys: 2017 OFFENSIVE LINE RANKINGS AND NOTES: PRESEASON WEEK 4 (Aug 31 2017) , here is an extracted ranking using only the "Run" column, including only those OLs that received an A+ or A
- DAL - A+
- OAK - A+
- BUF - A+
- CLE - A
- PIT - A
- WAS - A
- TEN - A
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daylight
Footballguy
KingPrawn
Footballguy
I think you need to amend the Jamaal Williams write up - not real clear on who Montgomery's backup is. If Montgomery goes down I think they use a committee among the 3 rookies. Some beat writers think that Jones has outplayed Williams and is the no. 2 with Williams playing the 3rd down role.
daylight
Footballguy
Agreed. Added Jones to the Candidate List (considering Aaron Rodgers and that offense) along side Jamaal Williams.
It sure seemed like that is what was happening this pre-season. I'm going to leave both of them on the Candidate List until we get a couple of games observed under our belts.
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