Stompin' Tom Connors

One week is an outlier; two weeks are a trend - who are players to get right now that will hold their Weeks 1 & 2 value?

39 posts in this topic

Fortune favors the bold, ladies and gents. And in FF, that often means getting the jump now on an ascendant player before others catch wind.

In the NFL, there is often a lot of variance in Week 1 as teams are still gelling and knocking off preseason rust for when the games really matter. As a result, sometimes we see unexpected performances that no one could see coming. I am not talking about guys like Kareem Hunt or Gillislee or even guys like Kupp or Cohen. These are guys who we had an inkling, based on situation, talent, or past performance (preseason or last season) that showed glimmers that these players are for real.

No, let's dig deeper than that. I am talking about guys who are likely on waivers, had solid week one performances, followed up by solid week two performances -- these are no longer outliers but show the potential of all-season value. Guys you can get on the cheap now and are likely going to continue to pay out. Guys who you can likely snap up before your other league members get wise.

Here are some options in my mind:

QB

Alex Smith, KC

Trevor Siemian, DEN

Carson Wentz, PHI

All three of these guys, if drafted at all, are likely 2nd QBs, or potentially on the wire. All three of these guys were the top 5 QBs by fantasy points (standard) two weeks running. They are not matchup-proof, but have shown me enough that they have the supporting cast on their team on both sides of the ball to get their offenses in good field positions, and move the chains with a fair number of weapons. I've seen enough to think that these trends continue, and as such, are all in my mind low end QB1s you can get for bargain basement prices right now.

RB

Jalen Richard, OAK

Theo Riddick, DET

Would have been easy for me to call out guys like Jonathan Stewart or Javorius Allen or James White or Chris Carson -- all of whom I like and think we'll see continued performance from, but guys that may be drafted or were immediate waiver targets after Week 1. Digging deeper, I like these backs given what I've seen for their usage and what they bring to the table.

Richard will remain a committee back with Washington, both backing up Lynch. But Oakland looks to be using Lynch in all the right ways -- limiting touches to keep him fresh so he can continue to be the hammer for this offense. But while Richard and Washington have similar skill sets, Richard is simply more electric, with a much better burst and crazy acceleration, and is all-rounded out of the backfield as a receiver or between the tackles. While I think Richard will still timeshare with Washington as the RB2a, he simply does a lot more with his touches than Washington. For a team looking for RB depth and a good situational flex player, Richard is an excellent choice.

Theo Riddick also has a capped ceiling, given Abdullah and the propensity for the Lions to bring in guys like Zenner and Dwayne Washington at the stripe. But DET is also a team that spreads the ball around, and they also employ Riddick heavily in the passing game. And they will likely continue to do so. For PPR, that kind of floor is appealing. Abdullah will get more snaps, but Riddick won't be too far behind in terms of his usage on the field. Again, I think there is value here for the prices you're looking at for acquisition.

WR

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ

Jeremy Maclin, BAL

It would be too easy for me to say J.J. Nelson -- I am loving the consistency he is bringing to the table and I think that continues, even when Brown returns to form. But he's more of a waiver target right now -- not exactly flying below radar.

Yes, an offensive player on the Jets. While Robby Anderson seems to have been the flavor of the month this year, Kearse is a guy who has outsnapped and outplayed Anderson. Kearse was pretty solid in SEA, and brings a good skill set to a team that really needs him. The Jets will continue to struggle, and Kearse isn't matchup-proof, but a dependable WR who is getting the targets and opportunity on a play-behind team, who is likely hanging on the wire for a team struggling with WRs? Yes please.  

I know, Maclin was likely drafted in deeper leagues, but there is a good deal of deserved wariness around him, both in terms of his history and being on the Ravens, who seem to just do enough offensively to have their D lock down the game. I think that's something to capitalize on, as we've seen a resurgence of Maclin, who is a TOp 10 receiver through two weeks, and while I don't think he ends up there, I've seen enough to convince me the trend of him delivering value continues consistently. Because Maclin carries a bit of a sour name brand given his past, he may be dropped or available on the wire or through a savvy package trade that pays off year-long.

 

So who you got? Who do you think is flying below the radar and, based on consistent value through these past few weeks, has established a trend that will continue?

 

 

Edited by Stompin' Tom Connors
Clarifying thoughts on JJ Nelson
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I am not sold on A Smith, think KC will favor the ground game over an air attack.

 

Good thread idea...

 

 

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One thing I like to do is target receivers who are seeing a high volume of targets but not a lot of points.  The points will follow the targets on average...

Based off that here are some BUY candidates:

WR
Hopkins - 29 targets leads the NFL, yet he has fewer points than Golden Tate, A Jeffrey, etc.  He is a big BUY if you can get him

Larry Fitz - His owner might be thinking this is the year Larry got old.  He has 19 targets through two weeks, only 95 yards.  He is a good buy low

Terrell Pryor - I think he will have a great year.  Hasn't done much year, but it will come

Marqise Lee - with the injuries on the Jags and the fact that they will be playing catchup a lot, Lee will be a great WR2 this year and you can get him for WR3/4 price

TE
My only recommendation here is M Bennett.  He has had 17 targets through two games and Rodgers likes him.  The TDs will come, he is a good buy

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On ‎9‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 2:15 PM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

 

All three of these guys, if drafted at all, are likely 2nd QBs, or potentially on the wire. All three of these guys were the top 5 QBs by fantasy points (standard) two weeks running. They are not matchup-proof, but have shown me enough that they have the supporting cast on their team on both sides of the ball to get their offenses in good field positions, and move the chains with a fair number of weapons. I've seen enough to think that these trends continue, and as such, are all in my mind low end QB1s you can get for bargain basement prices right now.

RB

Jalen Richard, OAK
Theo Riddick, DET

Would have been easy for me to call out guys like Jonathan Stewart or Javorius Allen or James White or Chris Carson -- all of whom I like and think we'll see continued performance from, but guys that may be drafted or were immediate waiver targets after Week 1. Digging deeper, I like these backs given what I've seen for their usage and what they bring to the table.

Richard will remain a committee back with Washington, both backing up Lynch. But Oakland looks to be using Lynch in all the right ways -- limiting touches to keep him fresh so he can continue to be the hammer for this offense. But while Richard and Washington have similar skill sets, Richard is simply more electric, with a much better burst and crazy acceleration, and is all-rounded out of the backfield as a receiver or between the tackles. While I think Richard will still timeshare with Washington as the RB2a, he simply does a lot more with his touches than Washington. For a team looking for RB depth and a good situational flex player, Richard is an excellent choice.

Theo Riddick also has a capped ceiling, given Abdullah and the propensity for the Lions to bring in guys like Zenner and Dwayne Washington at the stripe. But DET is also a team that spreads the ball around, and they also employ Riddick heavily in the passing game. And they will likely continue to do so. For PPR, that kind of floor is appealing. Abdullah will get more snaps, but Riddick won't be too far behind in terms of his usage on the field. Again, I think there is value here for the prices you're looking at for acquisition.

WR

Jermaine Kearse, NYJ
Jeremy Maclin, BAL

 

 

 

QB
Alex Smith, KC
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Carson Wentz, PHI

I think you are on the money here.  Though in my leagues Wentz was drafted and is rostered and I would place his upside higher than both Smith's and SIemian's.  I also would list them more as high qb2/fringe qb1.  Neither is sexy, but they do look like they are set up to be solid, safe producers with an occasional big game.  I am not sure if it will continue (the old "can't teach an old dog new tricks" bit), but Smith has surprised me with (without actually checking the numbers from previous years) what seems to me to be a noted uptick in downfield looks - even if they are not necessarily to his wideouts.  Though, again, I have not checked the numbers, so that last point may be off target.

RB
Jalen Richard, OAK
Theo Riddick, DET

Again, in the leagues I am familiar with, Riddick was drafted and is rostered. If not, he is a clear get.  Richard, however, is not rostered.  And like you, I have been favoring Richard over Washington even though all the "expert opinions" that I have seen so far claim/assume that Washington is the pickup.  We are at least 3 now as someone in a league I play in just dropped Washington and picked up Richard.

WR
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ
Jeremy Maclin, BAL
Tanner Gentry (my addition)
Brandon Coleman (my addition)


Maclin was drafted and is rostered in all my leagues. But if he is available, he is a clear "get".  Kearse, you are probably right at least in redraft leagues. I play dynasty and  I think it is hard to have a good feeling about any Jets wr in dynasty unless you have large benches and can roster more than one of them (do you REALLY want to target the Jets passing game, though).  Moving into the 2018 season, perhaps Kearse becomes the guy, or Anderson, or a certain wr on IR, or one of the 2017 rookies who are not getting playing time this year.  There will almost certainly be a new qb and even if Kearse is the guy this year, he might not be with the next qb.  

I actually rostered Anderson until today when I dropped him for a "longer" play in Gentry. He has only been active one week, so there is not even the two weeks of data that you mention. But there is the preseason and in his one week in the regular season, he did get a few looks from the soon-to-be-ex-starting-Bears-QB.  I have not seen him play (I live in the DR and it has been hard to watch games here), but by all accounts I have read, he has chemistry with the Bears soon-to-be-starting-Bears-QB.  All that taken together, is enough for me as I believe that Trubisky is the real deal and by the end of the season there will be at least one Bears wr that is at least rosterable.  I am putting my chips on Tanner.  I figure this is a month-long hold.  That is enough time to see if there is an upward trend or if we're just spinning tires.  All this, of course, dependent upon Mr. Fox learning a new trick (playing a rookie before the end of the world arrives).

I would also put in a good word for Brandon Coleman.  Coleman had a good offseason, finally got a few looks in Week 2 (while Ginn did himself no favors).  While the situation in NO is murky right now, Coleman seems to be trending up and has at least one more week to "prove himself".  But this should play itself out within a few weeks.

There are a couple of other wrs that I am watching, but they are outside the parameters of this conversation. While they might become relevant here later in the season, they are more likely to fade completely into oblivion.

 

Edited by Phantom Knight
Edited to add Brandon Coleman
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A guy being rostered wouldn't make him off limits here--just a good trade target.  You could still probably get Wentz, Maclin, etc. quite cheap if they're another fantasy team's backups.  

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I'm going to go with Josh Gordon. The trend across weeks 1 and 2 is that he didn't play, and I'm going to stick my neck out on the line and say that that trend continues for the rest of the season. 

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Love the topic.

My contributions would fall mainly into the category of "guys whose ADP fell below their true talent level due to health / character risk." While there are a small handful of guys whose bodies aren't built to withstand the rigors of the NFL, the vast majority of NFL athletes are "injury-prone" until they're not. Every week you get to start an "injury-prone" or "knucklehead" WR1, you know what you get? A WR1. You don't have to discount the points you bank for whatever might happen down the road.

Carlos Hyde - So it turns out that when it comes right down to it, NFL coaches and GMs are interested in succeeding, which means they tend to give the most touches to the guys with the most talent. Who knew?

Darren Sproles - The Eagles won't throw the ball 50 times every game - at least I hope they won't - and Sproles is clearly the most talented back on the roster. Yeah, he's a lock to get banged up at some point, but might as well ride that horse until it bucks you.

Keenan Allen - Bona-fide WR1 talent drafted in many cases as a low-end WR2. If you can get him for anything less than top-12 WR prices, he's a steal.

Martavis Bryant - He'd be the #1 option on about 20 other NFL teams. Not at all a stretch to think PIT's offense could support two top-15 wideouts.

Jordan Reed - Buy him for 50c on the dollar now on news of his most recent injury from a frustrated owner who's thinking, "Christ, here we go again. I'm done with this guy." You'll likely only get 8 more games of a top-3 TE talent, but some of those 8 games could win you a week - or a title.

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FWIW, it really takes 4 weeks before usable trends emerge in most cases. But this is still a fun topic/exercise!

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1 hour ago, We Tigers said:

A guy being rostered wouldn't make him off limits here--just a good trade target.  You could still probably get Wentz, Maclin, etc. quite cheap if they're another fantasy team's backups.  

Been trying to pry Wentz off of the ARodgers owner since preseason. Dude won't budge. Killin me. 

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1 hour ago, TartanLion said:

I'm going to go with Josh Gordon. The trend across weeks 1 and 2 is that he didn't play, and I'm going to stick my neck out on the line and say that that trend continues for the rest of the season. 

:bold:

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34 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

FWIW, it really takes 4 weeks before usable trends emerge in most cases. But this is still a fun topic/exercise!

I think you are right in terms of it being a more reliable trend, but by Week 4 - from my experience - it's too late. The guy's name is plastered on every site as a must add in waivers, the trend is obvious, etc.

Making the right move now before guppies catch on is why it's advantageous for us sharp sharks.

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To my eyes, DeVante Parker is showing all of the signs of a WR1 putting it all together.  I am expecting him to finish the season as a WR1, yet he might still be under the radar because he has only played one game and if you didn't watch that game, the stats themselves won't jump out at most.

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6 minutes ago, bumpman said:

To my eyes, DeVante Parker is showing all of the signs of a WR1 putting it all together.  I am expecting him to finish the season as a WR1, yet he might still be under the radar because he has only played one game and if you didn't watch that game, the stats themselves won't jump out at most.

 

Totally agree, Parker looks set for a big breakout. I'd try to trade for him in my main league, but the owner is a Dolphins fan and knows the script. I was literally just saying to him that I think he'll have a great year 

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Sanu..Steady,consistent, overdue for TDs ..they're coming..

Chris Thompson will continue this pace, Gruden may be on hot seat,he  knows CT is his best player = give him the ball ..

Russell Wilson's woes might continue, unfortunately..no idea how that O-line will shake out..

Siemian. 

Ameer Abdullah keeps chugging along..he's a solid RB2 going forward.

Eli's inconsistency will continue, but E. Engram's star is rising fast...

Dalvin Cook

Lions' defense.

it's only 1 week but M. Lee is going to catch a lot of balls with an offense that figures to play from behind quite a bit..same for Hurns.

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Did NOT see that coming....eliminate Gentry from this conversation.

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14 hours ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

I think you are right in terms of it being a more reliable trend, but by Week 4 - from my experience - it's too late. The guy's name is plastered on every site as a must add in waivers, the trend is obvious, etc.

Making the right move now before guppies catch on is why it's advantageous for us sharp sharks.

Yeah, maybe after 4 weeks it is too late, but I'm just cautioning that trying to find a trend before a trend can be found might end up being the guppie move. There is definitely a high amount of risk involved. I think a quad injury was partially to blame, but Marvin Jones last year is probably the freshest/best cautionary tale when it comes to this. He had 3 weeks of no less than 8 targets. He saw 8+ targets only 2 times the rest of the season.

I don't want to crap on the guys you selected, but I think it'll make an interesting case for 2 week sample sizes because...

  • I'll be shocked if 2 out of those 3 QBs end up with top 12 PPG stats for weeks 3-17. Luck will come back, Wilson will figure things out, Newton will knock off the rust, Mariota handed the ball off for the entire second half of his 2nd game, Matt Ryan will average more than 29 PA 1 TD/game, etc. So while I'll be shocked if 2 out of 3 of those guys end up top 12 ppg for weeks 3-17, I won' be shocked if 0 out of 3 make it there.
  • Riddick had an RB36 ADP. He's a zero-RB favorite, he's not coming cheap, especially after getting an uncharacteristic 9 carries last week and scoring a TD in week 1. Richard has played 21% and 30% of the snaps and seems to be the RB2a, splitting with Washington. I think his larger workload was due to the fact it was a blow out and Lynch only had 1 carry in the 4th quarter. I don't feel like his situation is still exactly as predicted in the offeseason.
  • Maclin scored a TD in both weeks. Nobody is selling him cheaply. Kearse just scored 2 TDs and was likely snagged after week 1. 

To me, most of these guys are knee jerk waiver adds or sell highs. Anyone who has shown signs of life during the first 2 weeks will have been snagged from the waiver wire or plugged into starting lineups. To me, the shark move is to try to grab the guys people are having negative knee jerk reactions to, such as Perine after week 1. With Corey Davis' injury, I think Decker or Rishard Matthews would be great adds because their 2 week sample points to high snap counts, especially with Davis out week 3 with a hammy that kept him out of the preseason.

So if I had to make a list of guys to target, this would probably be it:

  • Decker - getting snaps and targets (had 8, then 5 in the first half before game was out of hand), now Corey Davis out, people will think he's just old
  • Shepard - played 100% of the snaps the first two games, seems to be ahead of Marshall but a bad week 2 should make him relatively cheap
  • Goodwin - I don't really want him, but he's playing a lot of snaps on a losing team
  • Jaron Brown - while everyone else is buying the JJ Nelson hype, get the guy who is starting ahead of him when John Brown is healthy
  • Pryor - growing pains in Washington, but still getting snaps and targets... he wasn't cheap so you might find a pissed owner willing to trade
  • I don't see anything sneaky at RB unless you are desperate at RB... Sproles might be a good pickup

ETA: by pickup (for Sproles), I mean trade target... obviously he's not on the waiver wire

Edited by FF Ninja
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He isn't probably an option for the criteria this thread is about but I could see Alex Collins becoming the workhouse for Baltimore possibly.

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17 hours ago, Phantom Knight said:

QB
Alex Smith, KC
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Carson Wentz, PHI

I think you are on the money here.  Though in my leagues Wentz was drafted and is rostered and I would place his upside higher than both Smith's and SIemian's.  I also would list them more as high qb2/fringe qb1.  Neither is sexy, but they do look like they are set up to be solid, safe producers with an occasional big game.  I am not sure if it will continue (the old "can't teach an old dog new tricks" bit), but Smith has surprised me with (without actually checking the numbers from previous years) what seems to me to be a noted uptick in downfield looks - even if they are not necessarily to his wideouts.  Though, again, I have not checked the numbers, so that last point may be off target.

RB
Jalen Richard, OAK
Theo Riddick, DET

Again, in the leagues I am familiar with, Riddick was drafted and is rostered. If not, he is a clear get.  Richard, however, is not rostered.  And like you, I have been favoring Richard over Washington even though all the "expert opinions" that I have seen so far claim/assume that Washington is the pickup.  We are at least 3 now as someone in a league I play in just dropped Washington and picked up Richard.

WR
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ
Jeremy Maclin, BAL
Tanner Gentry (my addition)
Brandon Coleman (my addition)


Maclin was drafted and is rostered in all my leagues. But if he is available, he is a clear "get".  Kearse, you are probably right at least in redraft leagues. I play dynasty and  I think it is hard to have a good feeling about any Jets wr in dynasty unless you have large benches and can roster more than one of them (do you REALLY want to target the Jets passing game, though).  Moving into the 2018 season, perhaps Kearse becomes the guy, or Anderson, or a certain wr on IR, or one of the 2017 rookies who are not getting playing time this year.  There will almost certainly be a new qb and even if Kearse is the guy this year, he might not be with the next qb.  

I actually rostered Anderson until today when I dropped him for a "longer" play in Gentry. He has only been active one week, so there is not even the two weeks of data that you mention. But there is the preseason and in his one week in the regular season, he did get a few looks from the soon-to-be-ex-starting-Bears-QB.  I have not seen him play (I live in the DR and it has been hard to watch games here), but by all accounts I have read, he has chemistry with the Bears soon-to-be-starting-Bears-QB.  All that taken together, is enough for me as I believe that Trubisky is the real deal and by the end of the season there will be at least one Bears wr that is at least rosterable.  I am putting my chips on Tanner.  I figure this is a month-long hold.  That is enough time to see if there is an upward trend or if we're just spinning tires.  All this, of course, dependent upon Mr. Fox learning a new trick (playing a rookie before the end of the world arrives).

I would also put in a good word for Brandon Coleman.  Coleman had a good offseason, finally got a few looks in Week 2 (while Ginn did himself no favors).  While the situation in NO is murky right now, Coleman seems to be trending up and has at least one more week to "prove himself".  But this should play itself out within a few weeks.

There are a couple of other wrs that I am watching, but they are outside the parameters of this conversation. While they might become relevant here later in the season, they are more likely to fade completely into oblivion.

 

I like your optimism on Gentry as I really liked him too but apparently the Bears do not think he is ready to play yet.  They've already released him twice and signed him back to the practice squad both times.  There must be something that we don't see since not only did the Bears release him twice but each time he was released no team signed him before the Bears signed him to the practice squad.

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I'd like to throw a couple questions out for round table discussion based on what we've seen so far:

- Are the Ravens that good?

- And are the Bengals that bad?

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Kearse just scored 2 TDs and was likely snagged after week 1. 

This is not so much a Kearse comment as an Oakland comment - the Raiders remind me of past Saints teams where the nature of their defense/offense is going to result in both teams pushing scores. I think even weak teams will get some TDs vs Oakland, they will be a great matchup all year. That is to say, Kearse is obviously a nice snag and whatever people thought Robbie Anderson might be (a good WR3) but he's not a ROY top 5 or 10 WR.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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One more if anyone has any opinions: is Hunter Henry Week 1 or 2 the real Henry? Week 2 the snap count split with Gates was closer to 50/50, but Week 1 it was more in Gates' favor (39/23).

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I think Jamison Crowder and Pryor both qualify here.  The snaps and targets are there and will continue to be.

Tyrell Williams - he's a good PPR depth guy that is one Keenan injury away from high-end WR2 production.  last year was not a fluke.

Bilal Powell - if another owner in your league already cut bait I'd pick him up if you have room on the end of your bench.  could be similar to last year where he posts some excellent PPR games later in the year. 

Mohamad Sanu - looks to have improved chemistry with Ryan.  another good PPR depth guy.  played high % of snaps.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, prgromek said:

I think Jamison Crowder and Pryor both qualify here.  The snaps and targets are there and will continue to be.

Tyrell Williams - he's a good PPR depth guy that is one Keenan injury away from high-end WR2 production.  last year was not a fluke.

Bilal Powell - if another owner in your league already cut bait I'd pick him up if you have room on the end of your bench.  could be similar to last year where he posts some excellent PPR games later in the year. 

Mohamad Sanu - looks to have improved chemistry with Ryan.  another good PPR depth guy.  played high % of snaps.

Sanu is a good call. I think he's also always been a really low drop rate guy, too.

Tyrell might not have been a fluke last year, but Keenan's ACL (as are all ACL injuries) was. I Like Tyrell but holding him hoping for injury is a mistake. Especially bc Travis Benjamin was also hurt last year but is healthy this year and Mike Williams will eventually enter into the equation. So even if Keenan went down, Tyrell won't see the same target load he saw last year. That being said, I'd still advocate for acquiring him if the price is right.

Powell and Crowder should both be concerning. As Doctson's snaps increased in week 2, Crowder's decreased. He went from 78% of snaps down to 54%. Powell also saw his snaps decrease from 52% to 32%. Again, we're only looking at 2 weeks - not enough to make any definitive call, but per the basis of this thread, I don't think Powell and Crowder would qualify. Their small samples indicate less usage, not more.

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20 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Love the topic.

My contributions would fall mainly into the category of "guys whose ADP fell below their true talent level due to health / character risk." While there are a small handful of guys whose bodies aren't built to withstand the rigors of the NFL, the vast majority of NFL athletes are "injury-prone" until they're not. Every week you get to start an "injury-prone" or "knucklehead" WR1, you know what you get? A WR1. You don't have to discount the points you bank for whatever might happen down the road.

Carlos Hyde - So it turns out that when it comes right down to it, NFL coaches and GMs are interested in succeeding, which means they tend to give the most touches to the guys with the most talent. Who knew?

Darren Sproles - The Eagles won't throw the ball 50 times every game - at least I hope they won't - and Sproles is clearly the most talented back on the roster. Yeah, he's a lock to get banged up at some point, but might as well ride that horse until it bucks you.

Keenan Allen - Bona-fide WR1 talent drafted in many cases as a low-end WR2. If you can get him for anything less than top-12 WR prices, he's a steal.

Martavis Bryant - He'd be the #1 option on about 20 other NFL teams. Not at all a stretch to think PIT's offense could support two top-15 wideouts.

Jordan Reed - Buy him for 50c on the dollar now on news of his most recent injury from a frustrated owner who's thinking, "Christ, here we go again. I'm done with this guy." You'll likely only get 8 more games of a top-3 TE talent, but some of those 8 games could win you a week - or a title.

Hoping you're right on Hyde, just bought him this week.  Hoping Shanahan continues to use him.  I read that the past two years 70% of his runs were out of shotgun.  This year it's reversed.

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On ‎9‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 1:15 PM, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Fortune favors the bold

Alex Smith, KC

Its true fortune favors the bold, but (with all due respect) Alex Smith does not really belong in conversations about bold fantasy moves. He is steady and usually puts up a couple nice games each season but is generally pretty risk averse as a QB and has conservative stats to match. I think his high mark is #15 and usually ends up in the late teens in EOY QB rankings. More valuable to his NFL team than your fantasy team.  He seems to be the QB that is pretty consistently sitting on top of the waiver wire in my leagues year after year. Someone might grab him if they are in a bind and/or for a spot start. He's usually out there for the taking, though.

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2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I'd like to throw a couple questions out for round table discussion based on what we've seen so far:

- Are the Ravens that good?

- And are the Bengals that bad?

Raven's Defense? Yes. Raven's offense? No.

Bengals Offense? No.  Packers are decimated by injuries right now. Two of the top 3 defensive players (Perry/Daniels) are not likely to play. And Clay is getting long in the tooth.  This could be a bounce-back week (of sorts) for CIN.  The defense is legit and has played well and will keep them in the games - and AJ green is going to get his sooner or later. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

One more if anyone has any opinions: is Hunter Henry Week 1 or 2 the real Henry? Week 2 the snap count split with Gates was closer to 50/50, but Week 1 it was more in Gates' favor (39/23).

Short answer, week 2.

Longer version. I'd heard this summer two different Charger beat writers speculate that once Gates got his TD record his role would be diminished. I rely on beat writers a great deal for my fantasy information, but I don't believe everything they say and this time I chose not to believe it. It did not seem rational to me. Gates only needed one more TD so why feel need to be in such a rush to get him the record to the point he was severely out snapping Henry? Especially with a new head coach trying to put his stamp on the team. How could an NFL team really sacrifice putting the better player on the field in week 1, not like when they are eliminated or something just  so they could break a record they got all year to break?

None of that thought process made any sense to me.

Then Gates caught his TD and set the record and never got another target and while I don't know snap count usage after that part I know I rarely saw him on the field.

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I guess I have to be the guy who says two weeks could be a coincidence, not a trend. 

Lets talk about this next week.

Edited by Biabreakable

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My 2 cents on Trevor Siemian I think he's a good QB.  And I think he'll have some value as a QB2 this year.  I think his numbers are not supportable because a pretty big reason his stats are standing out are because he has so many TDs.  I don't think he's a 3.5 TD/game guy in that offense.  So expect him to come down to earth.

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On 9/21/2017 at 6:04 AM, FF Ninja said:
  • Riddick had an RB36 ADP. He's a zero-RB favorite, he's not coming cheap, especially after getting an uncharacteristic 9 carries last week and scoring a TD in week 1. Richard has played 21% and 30% of the snaps and seems to be the RB2a, splitting with Washington. I think his larger workload was due to the fact it was a blow out and Lynch only had 1 carry in the 4th quarter. I don't feel like his situation is still exactly as predicted in the offeseason.

Forgive me, and I confess this is a self serving reply because I'm in the midst of thinking of sending Chris Carson and Gio Bernard to an owner for Riddick. Wouldn't you think that Riddick *would* come cheap because of his substandard Week 2? 

p.s. Nice show focusing on Riddick as a zero RB favorite.

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On 9/21/2017 at 6:09 AM, CentralPA said:

He isn't probably an option for the criteria this thread is about but I could see Alex Collins becoming the workhouse for Baltimore possibly.

Nice post. Matt Waldman has keyed on him. I'm very intrigued. The only down part now is that Terrance West looks like he'll be active on Sunday. But Collins could be a lottery ticket. I'm keeping my eye on him.

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15 minutes ago, blake said:

Nice post. Matt Waldman has keyed on him. I'm very intrigued. The only down part now is that Terrance West looks like he'll be active on Sunday. But Collins could be a lottery ticket. I'm keeping my eye on him.

Yep, Collins would be relegated to 3rd in the depth chart behind West and Allen but if you're in a deep bench league or can afford to take up the spot he's a decent preemptive pick up.

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20 hours ago, Team Smokin' said:

How about Derrick Henry becoming the new #1 RB in Tennessee and breaking out?

It's happening...

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25 minutes ago, blake said:

Forgive me, and I confess this is a self serving reply because I'm in the midst of thinking of sending Chris Carson and Gio Bernard to an owner for Riddick. Wouldn't you think that Riddick *would* come cheap because of his substandard Week 2? 

p.s. Nice show focusing on Riddick as a zero RB favorite.

Maybe but he had an above standard week 1, so I think his owners are probably pretty happy with his results thus far. But like they say, it can't hurt to ask. Definitely send the offer if you want him. Personally, I think Gio is just as appealing as Riddick, if not more so. Gio is getting a larger snap share than Riddick and his team is more likely to be playing from behind than Detroit.

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20 hours ago, Team Smokin' said:

How about Derrick Henry becoming the new #1 RB in Tennessee and breaking out?

I feel like a savvy owner wouldn't let Henry go after his Week 2 game.

2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Maybe but he had an above standard week 1, so I think his owners are probably pretty happy with his results thus far. But like they say, it can't hurt to ask. Definitely send the offer if you want him. Personally, I think Gio is just as appealing as Riddick, if not more so. Gio is getting a larger snap share than Riddick and his team is more likely to be playing from behind than Detroit.

I am likely blinded by FBG's preference for Riddick. They see him as an RB2 for the rest of the season and are down on Bernard, listing him as an RB4. The snap counts are hard to ignore, however. The Bengals' offensive struggles have me concerned and the offensive line seems like it is no good. That said, maybe with a new OC it could change? Maybe that's why FBG isn't in love with Bernard?

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14 minutes ago, blake said:

I am likely blinded by FBG's preference for Riddick. They see him as an RB2 for the rest of the season and are down on Bernard, listing him as an RB4. The snap counts are hard to ignore, however. The Bengals' offensive struggles have me concerned and the offensive line seems like it is no good. That said, maybe with a new OC it could change? Maybe that's why FBG isn't in love with Bernard?

The OL is garbage in Cincy. That's for sure. But these guys don't get their value running between the tackles. 

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I do still think Riddick is a buy low right now. Maybe I'm offering too much for him, but ultimately, I do agree with you that he should be easier to obtain if owners are just looking at his box score.

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