wgoldsph
Footballguy
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RB Damien Harris, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Fariq
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
Harris was the one back I was interested in back in July, but that may be changing. Where I'm comfortable picking him depends on the league, but the price tag is getting a little expensive. Ultimately he's a New England RB that'll lose some touchdowns to Cam. Untrustworthy and a capped ceiling are two difficult elements to overcome. If he's there in the double digit rounds I'll think about it though.
Doug B
Footballguy
Where I just took him is the equivalent of the mid-8th-round in a redraft. However, being a keeper league, young breakout candidates are at a premium. The top-shelf veteran backup RBs will be out there for another round or three.
pantherclub
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I would replace 'a bargain' with 'about right,' but it's less about the pricetag. It's more about the league format, alternatives available mid-draft, and replacement value on waivers since that varies widely from one league to another.
i.e. in a 12 team 1/2 ppr 1 qb/2 wr/2 rb/1 te/flex/6 bn I may prioritize him. My bench is going to be littered with RB's because there's always something available at the other positions throughout the season. Sometimes I draft bench rb's before starters at other positions.
But in a 10 team nonppr 2 qb/3 wr/2 rb/te/flex/7 bn I may not bother with Harris at all. Finding adequate pass catchers and especially qb's in-season is difficult in this format. So I usually prioritize backup's at those positions to rb. I'll pick a Lamb or a Reagor as my first bench wr or go get a 3rd qb like Bridgewater early rather than a rb like Harris.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I still think that it is probably too early to anoint Harris as the second coming. The blurbs are nice, but some of them leave out the part that both Michel and Miller are thought to be coming back soon and may not start the season on the PUP list. Sure, Miller could be released at any time . . . but why bother signing him and holding him this long if they have no plans to keep him?
Quick thoughts: 1) it could end up being a really crowded backfield, 2) with those two not practicing, of course Harris is getting more practice time, 3) Newton steals touches and TD opportunities from the RBs, 4) Harris was kept to about 10 carries a game at Alabama (so who knows if NE would try to get him extended touches), and 5) they are playing glorified two hand touch most days.
Harris could be the best option they have, but given the number of guys he is up against and what should be a watered down NE offense, I am just not buying that he is going to go from nothing to a bell cow. IMO, he was worth drafting when he was a late round pick, but he's crept in to the mid rounds and closer to the top third of drafts.
If the reports out of camp are true about the O line (good blocking up front), then that would also benefit Michel (or Miller . . . or any of the other guys). IMO, Harris might be able to earn a decent size piece of the timeshare, but like most other years in NE, they will give as many healthy backs that are available a piece of the pie. But I would agree that IF Harris is the only healthy one and Michel and Miller can't go, then it stands to reason that Harris would get a huge bump in playing time.
I think BB wants to try to win games 16-10 and would be happy to have a punch of 10 minute drives with a heavy dose of run plays to keep the score down, tire out the opposition, and get their own defense rest. Put another way, they aren't going to win too many games 41-38, so they will have to get creative to be able to win.
Quick thoughts: 1) it could end up being a really crowded backfield, 2) with those two not practicing, of course Harris is getting more practice time, 3) Newton steals touches and TD opportunities from the RBs, 4) Harris was kept to about 10 carries a game at Alabama (so who knows if NE would try to get him extended touches), and 5) they are playing glorified two hand touch most days.
Harris could be the best option they have, but given the number of guys he is up against and what should be a watered down NE offense, I am just not buying that he is going to go from nothing to a bell cow. IMO, he was worth drafting when he was a late round pick, but he's crept in to the mid rounds and closer to the top third of drafts.
If the reports out of camp are true about the O line (good blocking up front), then that would also benefit Michel (or Miller . . . or any of the other guys). IMO, Harris might be able to earn a decent size piece of the timeshare, but like most other years in NE, they will give as many healthy backs that are available a piece of the pie. But I would agree that IF Harris is the only healthy one and Michel and Miller can't go, then it stands to reason that Harris would get a huge bump in playing time.
I think BB wants to try to win games 16-10 and would be happy to have a punch of 10 minute drives with a heavy dose of run plays to keep the score down, tire out the opposition, and get their own defense rest. Put another way, they aren't going to win too many games 41-38, so they will have to get creative to be able to win.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anarchy99's take is how I see it, too. If someone offers me a second-rounder for Harris in a dynasty league, I'm more than considering it. That's going to be a crowded backfield, and the NEP history is replete with backs that are good not being fantasy studs because of usage. BB is actually a bit fickle, even football-wise, with how he uses his backs. For example, I'm stunned Michel didn't cede more work to Burkhead last year when Burkhead was healthy. Rex hit holes and moved piles. His YPC had to be a full yard greater than Sony's. I inherited Harris (never would have drafted him) and would be looking to turn him around for a nice pick.
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smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I agree as well. I sold him for what I valued as a 2023 2nd. His value has been in the tank since he didn't get much playing time last year.
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rockaction
Footballguy
I see your edit. I'm not in a major rebuild, but in a rebuilding mode, so that's probably why I would consider it. Everyone's mileage may vary. Personally, I think this might be the sell high portion of the Harris program.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Wolf of Roto Street@RotoStreetWolf
"Damien Harris has been sensational... makes some cuts & has vision, I haven't seen in some time. He is a dynamite pass-catcher out of the backfield. It's very natural to him. "He has been the clear Breakout Star of this camp and he is the No.1 running back by far."
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NBC Sports Boston @NBCSBoston
@GregABedard on Damien Harris:
"To me, he is an upgrade over Sony Michel." #Patriots
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"Damien Harris has been sensational... makes some cuts & has vision, I haven't seen in some time. He is a dynamite pass-catcher out of the backfield. It's very natural to him. "He has been the clear Breakout Star of this camp and he is the No.1 running back by far."
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NBC Sports Boston @NBCSBoston
@GregABedard on Damien Harris:
"To me, he is an upgrade over Sony Michel." #Patriots
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pantherclub
Footballguy
My dumb ### is going to overreach for him in my big money draft Saturday. I will be about 6 beers in around the 7th round and pull the trigger.
rockaction
Footballguy
Just remember that the Patriots aren't the productive Patriots of old and maybe that will deter you.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Sure, but a starting running back on a mcdaniels offense is worth a 7th round pick. That is of course this is not all a huge smokescreen about Harris and they shelve him on the bench. Which it probably is.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
A lot will depend on how the pieces fit with what they want to run without Brady. That’s a bit of the X favor here. Bat as has been discussed many times, BB hasn’t had a three down back in forever, and the one season Blount had almost 300 carries the other backs were dinged up.
From all accounts, Harris has looked good the past two weeks with other backs out in a pretty relaxed environment. I have never been a huge Michel fan, so I would welcome a change to the script and strategy of rotating backs (teams can tell what NE will do based off of that).
Harris was certainly a worthwhile dart throw two weeks ago. But the hype will cause his ADP to shy rocket (so where you take him might be a reach). No one really wants to draft Michel, so his ADP had been falling. Michel is now getting drafted after clear backups in some leagues, and at that point he starts having value (even with his warts and blemishes).
The new dart throw for me will be Miller. Why did NE sign him if he wasn’t ready to play and then still hold onto him? I will grab him with a late pick and see what happens. He could easily be dumped for a waiver wire option if need be.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I learned my lesson long ago to NEVER invest in any BB backfield so for me I'd only be interested in a buy-low situation and would try to turn that around in a trade the second his stock rose where it'd be an easy sell.
pantherclub
Footballguy
His adp has crept up from late 10th to late 9th. Thats why I think if you like him and playing in a league of sharks then you probably are going to have to burn a 7th to get him. Which seems steep but man if he ends up being the starter thats a value pick that can potentially win your league. This still feels odd but with Michel hurt (again) and Lamar miller being way past his prime who are the other guys that Harris is really competing with?
Not for nothing the NE beat writer has been raving about Harris all camp. Of course he is a homer but its at least something.
So in closing I think if you really want him you are going to have to go get him 2 rounds earlier than you would like.
pantherclub
Footballguy
A BB backfield produces fantasy points, the problem however its a moving target week to week.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Which to me is too frustrating trying to second guess the 'Wile E. Coyote super genius'.
I try to strive for consistency at RB because WRs aren't as consistent.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Sober pantherclub agrees with you 100%, 7 beers in pantherclub likes to roll the dice and add a headache to his roster
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Reiss is a little off on this part . . .
Vereen went from 15 touches as a rookie to 70 touches his second year. White went from 14 touches Year 1 to 62 touches in Year 2. Would either of those two guys really been an example of "emerging players"? If Harris only got between 60-70 touches this year, fantasy owners would go nuts.
That being said, it would not be a surprise if that's the piece of the pie NE allocated to Harris this year. Maybe within the locker room or within local media guys that really is a player emerging. I still don't think taking a NE RB this year is a great idea (even in other years) . . . but that just my opinion.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He’s still a Pats RB and they still have Michel, Miller, Burkhead and White in the mix. I like him at the round 10/11 pricetag but taking him in round 6/7 seems way too risky.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Michel and Miller are already hurt and Lamar has lost a step. Burkhead doesnt get many carries nor does White. If, I repeat, if the rumors are true that Harris is the starting RB then you are getting one of the if not last starting RB's in the 7th. Thats good value. But you are gambling for sure.
This situation has me thinking going hard wr in the first 3-4 rounds and then trying to round out the RB position by guys like Ronald jones, Akers, Damian Harris, Hunt in 4(5)-9. Then targeting back ups in the late late rounds.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m mostly in agreement about all of the players you mentioned but the Pats have been notoriously a headache for fantasy owners at RB. We don’t know the extent of the Michel/Miller injuries and we don’t know how Bill ranks his RB options right now. Harris has been getting hyped up but most practices this offseason don’t really have hitting so who knows?
And sure Burkhead doesn’t get a ton of carries but Belichick has always loved him and when he gets two short TDs in a game where Harris got you 60 rushing yards and 2 catches for 10 yards - it will sting.
pantherclub
Footballguy
All good points but as you know michel had foot surgery and hasnt been practicing and lamar is just not good. The TD burkhead is a real threat but again you are getting a starter when most of them are all gone. I am just trying to factor that in with my strategy. If I know I can at least get someone that is going to get carries and potentially be good in the 7/8 range then that is intriguing to me. As you know in the first 4/5 rounds are the heavy running back runs and here you can go against the grain and get some good wr value if you know you can fill out the RB bench with those guys I listed above later.
The problem I always see with the zero RB strategy is that there are very little guaranteed starters after round 5/6 and with Harris (if he is indeed named the starter for wk1) you can snatch him. So for me this kind of factors in some flexibility with the zero rb strategy. Thats all I am saying
I think you're hung up on the word "starter" when the designation is meaningless for the Patriots. Unless those guys all magically go away, there is no true starter.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, White's going to get his. Burkhead will get run when healthy. It's a muddy backfield. Harris as a starter is only gonna get two downs in NE unless it's short yardage on third. Granted, those two downs might be fantasy-relevant, but there's a reason his ADP is still 10/11.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Duly noted but I think Bill B wants to run the ball and it Harris produces early on I think BB rides him. Its a calculated gamble for rounds 7/8.
rockaction
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Unfortunately very much so.You really want to take this guy, don't you? You're already on the hook for him.
Doug B
Footballguy
Just for the heck of it, I went back through Belichick's NE teams to see how often his teams produced startable fantasy RBs. Even in fairly recent years, it's been more often than I would bet a lot of people think. In some seasons, there were even two. NOTE: I did count guys that didn't play entire seasons due to injury, but were productive when playing.
Apologies for formatting ... this is quick and dirty from Pro Football Reference. "gs" just means "Games Started" not "Games Played". "yfs" means Yards From Scrimmage. The last item on the right is the OC's name for that season:
2001 Antowain Smith, 15 gs, 1349 yfs, 13 td, weis
2002 Antowain Smith, 15 gs, 1225 yfs, 8 td, weis
2004 Corey Dillon, 15 gs, 1738 yfs, 13 td, weis
2005 Corey Dillon, 10 gs, 914 yfs, 13 td, mcdaniels
2006 Corey Dillon, 13 gs, 959 yfs, 13 td, mcdaniels
2006 Laurence Maroney, 0 gs, 939 yfs, 7 td, mcdaniels
2007 Laurence Maroney, 6 gs, 951 yfs, 6 td, mcdaniels
2010 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 11 gs, 1093 yfs, 13 td, o'brien
2010 Danny Woodhead, 3 gs, 926 yfs, 6 td, o'brien
2011 BenJarvus Green-Ellis, 6 gs, 826 yfs, 11 td, o'brien
2012 Stevan Ridley, 12 gs, 1314 yfs, 12 td, mcdaniels
2013 Stevan Ridley, 6 gs, 835 yfs, 7 td, mcdaniels
2013 LeGarrette Blount, 7 gs, 810 yfs, 7 td, mcdaniels
2016 LeGarrette Blount, 8 gs, 1199 yfs, 18 td, mcdaniels
2017 Dion Lewis, 8 gs, 1110 yfs, 9 td, mcdaniels
2018 Sony Michel, 8 gs, 981 yfs, 6 td, mcdaniels
2018 James White, 3 gs, 1176 yfs, 12 td, mcdaniels
2019 Sony Michel, 14 gs, 1006 yfs, 7 td, mcdaniels
2019 James White, 1 gs, 908 yfs, 6 td, mcdaniels
To me, Damien Harris' upside in 2020 is somewhere around Green-Ellis' and Ridley best seasons. What's hard to figure is his floor. But, man, the seas sure seem to be parting for Harris right now.
pantherclub
Footballguy
^great stuff
rockaction
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Allow me to retort . . .
I don't care about the numbers or the coordinators, I care about the rankings. Here are the Patriots RB rankings for guys that ranked in the Top 75 RB each year (standard scoring):
2001 - SMITH 9, Faulk 54, Edwards 58
2002 - Smith 22, Faulk 38, Edwards 75
2003 - Faulk 34, Smith 39, Cloud 68
2004 - DILLON 7, Faulk 44, Pass 75
2005 - Dillon 16, Faulk 44, Pass 75
2006 - Dillon 19, Maroney 29, Faulk 52
2007 - Maroney 25, Faulk 50, Morris 55
2008 - Faulk 27, Morris 28, Green-Ellis 60, Jordan 61
2009 - Maroney29, Faulk 45, Morris 58, Taylor 64
2010 - Green-Ellis 15, Woodhead 28
2011 - Green-Ellis 24, Woodhead 56, Ridley 65
2012 - RIDLEY 10, Woodhead 25, Vereen 49, Bolden 69
2013 - Ridley 26, Blount 29, Vereen 43, Bolden 56
2014 - Vereen 28, Blount 37, Gray 46, Ridley 73
2015 - Blount 31, Lewis 49, White 53, Bolden 70
2016 - BLOUNT 7, White 36, Lewis 74
2017 - Lewis 13, Burkhead 39, White 48, Gillislee 54
2018 - WHITE 11, Michel 25
2019 - Michel 25, White 29, Burkhead 48, Bolden 72
So across 19 seasons, I count 5 times a RB ranked in the Top 12 and 6 other times a RB ranked in the Top 24. If people want to say a few times guys ranked in the 25-30 range, I won't say they are wrong.
Another way of looking at it is they have produced 3 Top 12 RB and 3 Top 24 RB across the past 13 seasons. That doesn't strike me as a big amount given the strong team totals for RB production. The problem with the NE backfield is the sum of the parts is usually much better than the individual pieces. THE NE backfield typically does very well as a unit. I have posted on that many times. But in the recent past, they have broken up the roles so much that one guy will not normally get a chance to shine (short of multiple injuries to other backs).
Even though Harris is said to be doing well and looking good, the narrative is MUCH DIFFERENT than if he was doing well and looking good with MICHEL AND MILLER at practice and kicking those two to the curb. This offseason is more like practice-lite. Teams are not pushing guys as hard and there are not many padded practices. While it's nice that Harris looks good, BB over the years has generally taken it easy on guys that are going to start and worked guys hard that are not going to see much time. That's how he does things.
Michel just came back, I have heard Miller is coming back soon, White is White, and Burkhead is Burkhead. That's a lot of bodies. And Cam is part RB all on his own. Over the past decade, the Patriots have almost always gone with a two down back, a 3rd down / receiving back, and a player that fills in for either of those guys. At some point, that third back normally will get a series or two of his his own. (That's easy to miss sometimes if the drives are short and three and outs.) The last two seasons, Michel was the bruiser, White was the 3rd down receiver, and Burkhead the jack of all trades.
If anything, I would suggest that Michel or Miller will end up as the early down back and Harris will battle for Burkhead's spot. I doubt anyone will take any snaps away from White. If Michel or Miller bust (certainly possible) while Harris pops (also possible), Harris might end up starting to get some extra touches. Also bear in mind that in his time in CAR, Newton averaged 120-125 carries a season (I am not saying that the Patriots will use him that much, but 100 carries is not out of the question). He also has averaged almost 8 rushing TD over a 16-game season. I also believe NE will be playing a slow and steady ball control offense to try to stay on the field, keep their defense fresh, and keep game scores down. In short, I think they will veer away from their fast pace of play offensively (they ranked in the Top 10 in offensive plays 18 times in 19 years).
Also bear in mind that NE is spending $11.6 million for their RBs. If they really intend to ride Harris, it is in their best interest to start shedding some of the other guys. They also are said to really like UDFA RB JJ Taylor. Bottom line, there are a lot of guys that could see a piece of the pie, and BB has not been one to go with one guy for a huge chunk of the RB workload in a long, long time. Sure, Blount had a big season, but that was after Lewis was banged up. White had a big season a couple of seasons ago, but that was due to an abnormally high TD total (12), which is double what he had in any other season.
The one big unknown is what style offense McDaniels is planning on running. Michel likely is not a great fit if they try to implement a lot of RPO's. The other backs would likely be better fits if that is the direction they want to go in. Yes, there is a slim chance Harris at some point carves out a bigger role, but IMO that would be more of a surprise than a given (and would likely require injuries to other players). I would be more inclined to let other guys draft NE running backs and then take the ugly duckling and the last one remaining as a last round lottery pick.
rockaction
Footballguy
Anarchy's opus is spot on, IMO. And I roster Harris in dynasty, so I have every reason to want it to be true. It's not.
Doug B
Footballguy
In the end ... you have to roster the breakout (even a mild one, with a ceiling of low RB2/Flex) before they break out. EDIT: D Harris owners are not chained to him -- if he doesn't pan out, cut him for the Waiver Darling Du Jour.
I will agree that Damien Harris should not typically be drafted as a fantasy starting running back in redrafts -- he should definitely be a bench player.
I will agree that Damien Harris should not typically be drafted as a fantasy starting running back in redrafts -- he should definitely be a bench player.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
What is his dynasty worth? Not a late 1st but a 2nd isn't enough? It is that no man's land that makes it tough to deal. I got him in a throw in package a while back and I *think* I want to move him. Maybe another package for a 1st. See what I can do.
Doug B
Footballguy
This is all generally -- but not invariably -- true. I understand this is your team and you've been watching them for a long time.
In contrast to you, I'm less concerned about end-of-year rankings and more concerned with whether someone was usable for some stretch of a season. For instance, in 2013, Stevan Ridley rattled off 441 yards rushing and 7 TDs in a five game stretch starting in Wk 6. The very next game on Sunday Night Football, Ridley got the start against Denver but then fumbled during the opening drive -- his third straight game with a fumble. Ridley did not start again the rest of 2013, though he did come back to get double-digit carries the last two games of the season. That opened the door for Lagarrette Blount to rack up 436 yfs and 5 TDs of his own in the final five games.
The moral of the story is -- yes, it's understood that Belichick might bench someone for a month for a fumble, or being five minutes late to a meeting or something like that. But what if Harris doesn't put the ball on the ground? Or doesn't miss that pass block? What if he's just really dang good and no one saw it coming? What draft pick is it worth to find out? And even if picking Harris is a big whiff ... is it a recoverable mistake in fantasy football? Or is it something that will sink your season?
To me ... the answer to that last two questions are, in order, "Yes" and "No".
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rockaction
Footballguy
A first would be highway robbery, IMHO. He's still at like 80 on the trade calcs and a first-rounder is like 250. A second is more likely.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, that's really where I was headed. A late second or early third. At that price, though, I'm holding and hoping to hit the bingo/the lotto.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Like any other player, it's all about what it takes to acquire a player and what round to draft them. There are no absolutes, and I would never say don't draft a player. I don't know what the line in the sand is for Harris, as I am not particularly moved to want to draft him (meaning he will be long gone before I would consider him). But because people are seeing more in him than in Michel, Michel is getting to the point where even though I don't like him or want him, it would be dumb not to consider him.
No middle round pick will sink your season. Like others have suggested, it's almost worth it to have him on your roster on the week he does go nuts and trade high, flipping him for pieces you really can count on. One of the reasons the NE backfield hasn't had many fantasy superstars is they generally have a lot of depth and guys that play roles. I don't think this year is the exception that breaks that rule.
BB is doing things different now than he did in 2013, so I don't see Harris getting in the position to get 441 yards and 7 TD in a 5 game stretch. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't. If you feel like drafting him in ROUND X, then take him in ROUND X. Maybe you will hit pay dirt. As you said, it's not going to kill you. And also to be clear, I would rather NE DID play Harris, so I hope you are right.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah aside from BB questions about RB usage, I just don't think the offense is going to be very good. I think Cam will make more plays than a lot of people think, but I just see this as a middling unit at best. With potential for less. I think I'd rather play the Gibson vs AP vs Love game than this Patriots one.
I have one redraft share and one in dynasty is all.
I have one redraft share and one in dynasty is all.
pantherclub
Footballguy
We get all of that and anarchy presents some good data as well, however I think the argument is that yes we know that a RB in that system is hit or miss but we are talking about getting this player in the 7,8,9 rounds. If his adp was like 5.6 then it holds more risk but now we are just discussing possibly getting a starting rb that could potentially have a few good weeks and then flip in a round that you are just thowing darts anyway
