How is that different?
I absolutely believe that the lion's share of what Brown & Brown leave on the table will absolutely be transferred to DJ in some form.
I never said that transfer would specifically represent targets.
The Browns were primarily deep threats. John Brown wasn't healthy very much. Not seeing how those looks would be going to David Johnson.
Although DJ was injured after only one game Cardinals RB combined for 130 targets last season. In 2016 DJ had 120 targets.
If targets are coming from other players and going Johnson's way I think it is more likely that the TE are not used as much as receivers than WR. TE combined for 99 targets last year which is kind of high for an Arians offense. I think those looks are more closely related to RB targets, which were still fairly high anyways. WR had 362 targets last year.
Steve Wilks is a defensive coach, so I could see some emphasis on slowing the game down I suppose? Maybe this leads to a higher run to pass ratio? I dunno.
Mike McCoy is the offensive coordinator. Here is the run/pass ratio for his offenses the last 3 seasons:
2017 Denver 1075 total plays 566 pa 457 ra
2016 Chargers 1014 total plays 580 pa 398 ra
2015 Chargers 1100 total plays 667 pa 393 ra
3 year average 1063 total plays 604 pa 416 ra
Those teams are not the Cardinals though. 3 year average for the Cardinals was 1062 total plays 602 pa 420 ra.
If I average the 3 year average of both McCoy and the Cardinals offense this is 1062 total plays 603 pass attempts 418 rushing attempts.
Larry Fitzgerald has averaged 152 targets over the last 3 seasons. Seems a safe bet to expect that continues.
Lets say David Johnson gets 120 targets again and other RB get 30 targets also. So 150 targets there.
This leaves 300 targets to be distributed between TE and WRs.
McCoy maybe likes to use TE more than Arians does. So lets say their TE combine for 100 targets (about the same as last year) this leaves 200 targets left for the WR.
Chad Williams, JJ Nelson, Brice Butler Colbi Hamilton are other WR who could get targets besides Christian Kirk.
Chad Williams only had 7 targets last season over the 6 games he played, but I could see that going up I suppose. Nelson is the WR who has been used the most out of these WR. He has averaged 67.5 targets the last two seasons. I can see giving him that much again.
There are 100 targets available to Christian Kirk I think unless he does not crack the starting line up. Nelson and Williams seem like the best competition for opportunities on the Cardinals roster, but maybe Butler is in the mix as well. I have to wonder why the Cowboys did not keep Butler when they needed WR. Maybe he isn't so good.
I dunno Kirk is a rookie so maybe he doesn't do that much in this offense. Training camp and preseason should tell us more about the pecking order of the receivers. Or maybe kutta or someone could shed some more light on that than I can.
For now I can see Kirks role in the offense being anywhere from 20 to 120 targets depending on how the rest of the distribution to the other receivers and TE is.