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Dynasty & Redraft: Tre’Quan Smith, WR NO (1 Viewer)

FGITLOTR said:
They weren't very good a few weeks back against the Bills at home 
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The Bills was a let down game.  I don't really count that.  The Vikings simply were not prepared to play an NFL team that Sunday.  They believed the press clippings.

Regarding the Rams game, on the other hand, Everson Griffin wasn't there.  And the Vikings lost be 7.  

The Vikings star DE coming back after suffering mental problems ... honestly, I think the defense may scare me more.

Having said that - I like Smith to have  a few catches and I expect this to be a shootout.  The problem with the Vikings is on the back end.     

 
While I doubt I play Tre’Quan this week, losing Fuller gives me a spot going forward...

Minn Def is hit/miss this year.  You cannot ignore “an off game” but accept it as an anomaly.  Losing Rhodes & Sandejo will hurt!  Even 80% Rhodes will open things up for MT. 

My view: I expect Smith will see 6-8 targets & if he breaks one, Brees will trust him more each week!

 
Birdie048 said:
While I doubt I play Tre’Quan this week, losing Fuller gives me a spot going forward...

Minn Def is hit/miss this year.  You cannot ignore “an off game” but accept it as an anomaly.  Losing Rhodes & Sandejo will hurt!  Even 80% Rhodes will open things up for MT. 

My view: I expect Smith will see 6-8 targets & if he breaks one, Brees will trust him more each week!
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Sendejo has been out for a couple weeks now and the defense has been playing better with Iloka Harris and Kearse all playing significantly more snaps.

I do expect Brees to be great as usual though. Smith is a big play waiting to happen.

Hopefully there is some pass rush and Wayne's does a good job on him.

 
Birdie048 said:
While I doubt I play Tre’Quan this week, losing Fuller gives me a spot going forward...

Minn Def is hit/miss this year.  You cannot ignore “an off game” but accept it as an anomaly.  Losing Rhodes & Sandejo will hurt!  Even 80% Rhodes will open things up for MT. 

My view: I expect Smith will see 6-8 targets & if he breaks one, Brees will trust him more each week!
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I am thinking lower.  Maybe 4-6.  With Ingram back, I suspect they will start protecting the defense with the run game again. 

 
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Hairy Snowman said:
I am thinking lower.  Maybe 4-6.  With Ingram back, I suspect they will start protecting the defense with the run game again. 
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They will certainly try.

I am not sure if Linval Joseph will play or not. He is listed as questionable similarly to Rhodes.

The Vikngs only need Joseph for about 50% of the defensive snaps on early downs anyways. They usually will sub in someone else for passing downs.

No one on the defense can force the double team and win like Joseph can. It is an important part of their run defense.

The Saints have a great offensive line, but what happened when they played the Vikings last year (twice) is the running game got shut down early on, the Vikings were able to establish a lead and then running game becomes an afterthought.

I think this game tonight will be fairly high scoring for both teams.

Also it does sound like Rhodes is going to play.

 
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CBS Sportsline is crediting the Vikings DST with a fumble recovery - at least so far this evening.   Have they made a fumble recovery?   I didn’t think so.   Fantasy owners will want to watch that.  

 
Too much hype, too soon. Sometimes these things need to happen organically. Slightly better matchup against the Rams but what reason to the Saints have to bump him up the target ladder?

 
Just a weird game for the saints offensively all around. Thomas was invisible after the first quarter too. They figured they could run at will and dump off on Minnesota and they were right. 

 
oddsbodkins said:
Just a weird game for the saints offensively all around. Thomas was invisible after the first quarter too. They figured they could run at will and dump off on Minnesota and they were right. 
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Yeah a few short fields from turnovers and a defensive td and Brees didn’t have to do much. Like they were saying on the broadcast, if you had said before the game Brees would throw for 120 yards with one td and one pick, I would have told you the saints got blown out

 
The coach seems to be in love with the taysom hill gadget package....which removes wrs from the field....waiting for it to blow up in his face

 
Angry spiders said:
The coach seems to be in love with the taysom hill gadget package....which removes wrs from the field....waiting for it to blow up in his face
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I don’t know why people want this to happen and believe that it will. The reason they use it is because Hill has been the most proficient runner in the NFL. Think about him more as a Cordarrelle Patterson type and you’ll stop thinking about him as this guy who is taking away from your fantasy team. He’s part of that offense and special teams and he’s not going away.

 
The reason Payton loves the Hill package is that it's working right now, but I think more so that it has to be a serious PITA for defenses to prepare for. They can run so many different plays out of it and it's a style of football that really couldn't be more different than Drew Brees under center. Opposing DCs have to devote time to preparing for it. So just running it for a few plays a game makes life that much easier for the rest of the offense (including Tre'Quan Smith)

 
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He is a hold.  Brees only threw for 120 yards and 1 TD.  There were 0 down hill throws.  The D stepped up with a fumble and pick 6.  Saints had control for most of the game.  Are we expecting Brees to average 150 yards RoS?  No.

 
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Simon Shepherd said:
The reason Payton loves the Hill package is that it's working right now, but I think more so that it has to be a serious PITA for defenses to prepare for. They can run so many different plays out of it and it's a style of football that really couldn't be more different than Drew Brees under center. Opposing DCs have to devote time to preparing for it. So just running it for a few plays a game makes life that much easier for the rest of the offense (including Tre'Quan Smith)




 
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I don't get this argument at all.

"So many different plays?"  "Hard for defenses to prepare for?"

Name one play that can be run with Hill under center that can't be run with Brees.  You still have 11 guys and 5 eligible receivers, same as usual.  Except you've taken one "eligible receiver" and replaced him with an old QB who won't be running a crisp route, blocking OR taking a reverse.  Sounds like a -EV proposition to me.

 
Angry spiders said:
The coach seems to be in love with the taysom hill gadget package....which removes wrs from the field....waiting for it to blow up in his face
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Thomas caught a long pass from Hill.

 
Arodin said:
I don't get this argument at all.

"So many different plays?"  "Hard for defenses to prepare for?"

Name one play that can be run with Hill under center that can't be run with Brees.  You still have 11 guys and 5 eligible receivers, same as usual.  Except you've taken one "eligible receiver" and replaced him with an old QB who won't be running a crisp route, blocking OR taking a reverse.  Sounds like a -EV proposition to me.
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Option run.

Obviously they are never going to run that with Brees.

So defenses need to prepare for it.

I think where your point falls flat is the difference between "can be run" versus "would be run". Payton is never going to put a 39 year old Drew Brees on a designed run play (ignoring QB sneaks which Brees does in a sneaky thrust-the-ball-out-then-pull-it-back kind of way!). So defenses are obviously not going to waste time preparing for that.

Taysom Hill however makes you prepare for that. Because a) if he's on the field you know Payton might call it and b) if he does, he's fast enough to catch you out on the perimeter (Brees is not).

 
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Simon Shepherd said:
Option run.

Obviously they are never going to run that with Brees.

So defenses need to prepare for it.

I think where your point falls flat is the difference between "can be run" versus "would be run". Payton is never going to put a 39 year old Drew Brees on a designed run play (ignoring QB sneaks which Brees does in a sneaky thrust-the-ball-out-then-pull-it-back kind of way!). So defenses are obviously not going to waste time preparing for that.

Taysom Hill however makes you prepare for that. Because a) if he's on the field you know Payton might call it and b) if he does, he's fast enough to catch you out on the perimeter (Brees is not).
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If I'm an opposing DC, every time they line up for one of those gimmick plays that's a win for me. One fewer chance for Brees/Thomas/Kamara to do some real damage.

 
Simon Shepherd said:
Option run.

Obviously they are never going to run that with Brees.

So defenses need to prepare for it.

I think where your point falls flat is the difference between "can be run" versus "would be run". Payton is never going to put a 39 year old Drew Brees on a designed run play (ignoring QB sneaks which Brees does in a sneaky thrust-the-ball-out-then-pull-it-back kind of way!). So defenses are obviously not going to waste time preparing for that.

Taysom Hill however makes you prepare for that. Because a) if he's on the field you know Payton might call it and b) if he does, he's fast enough to catch you out on the perimeter (Brees is not).
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Except “option run” isn’t unique to Taysom.  Lots of Saints opponents run that play, so the defense knows what to do.  I don’t see it needing a lot of special prep time.  

In fact, this particular option run is automatically easier to defend than, say, Cam Newton’s option run, because there is one fewer target to cover if the QB pulls up from the run to throw a pass.

 
Arodin said:
Except “option run” isn’t unique to Taysom.  Lots of Saints opponents run that play, so the defense knows what to do.  I don’t see it needing a lot of special prep time.  

In fact, this particular option run is automatically easier to defend than, say, Cam Newton’s option run, because there is one fewer target to cover if the QB pulls up from the run to throw a pass.
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You said name a play that they can run with Hill they can't with Brees. We agree that the option is such a play, right?

Taysom Hill has 5.9 yards per carry. He merits some prep time.? Any time at all is time you need, with Drew Brees in charge of the base offense.

If I'm an opposing DC I'm thinking, how do I cover a situation where two guys with the speed of Kamara and Hill lineup in the backfield? Maybe Newton/McCaffrey is similar enough to that but I can't think (completely off the top of my head!) anyone else who can do that. And we saw a little success last night with McCoy and Ivory (perhaps because the Pats hadn't prepared for it?!)

This week for instance: the Rams so far have played the Raiders, Cardinals, Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers and Packers. None of those teams have anything like this Hill look (I think - please correct me if I'm wrong!). If I'm right there, I'd go on to say the Rams do not know what to do (enough) and they will be spending time on it this week.

Anyway pulling this back to Tre'Quan. I don't think the Hill package necessarily excludes Smith. I pulled up some tape from Sunday on Game Pass. I didn't have to go further than 12:29 in the first quarter for a Taysom Hill play, with Smith on the field, running a route. Kamara lined up next to Hill in the backfield. The play was a deep pass targeted to Michael Thomas. So they will call long pass plays for Hill. and Smith will be on the field at the same time. This is great news for Smith's value. We shouldn't think of the Taysom Hill plays as lost plays for Tre'Quan Smith. When Smith is off the field and Hill is on it, from what I've seen that's in a goal to go situation in which case, that's not really Smith's area of the field regardless of who's at QB.

 
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I thought he would get more targets.  This Saints offense feeds through Kamara.  Are we still holding for potential shootout gamescripts?

 
he's doing about as well as expected for a rookie. he's just not going to get the volume to warrant starting most weeks right now. he's got little value in redraft leagues but is fine with dynasty still.

 
what does the dez signing do to tre'quan's value?   Ithink he will still get his 2 or 3 deep shots per game, but he will lose targets.  

 
rickyg said:
what does the dez signing do to tre'quan's value?   Ithink he will still get his 2 or 3 deep shots per game, but he will lose targets.  
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Their roles really don't intersect; Dez will be Super Brandon Coleman in the Saints O. The big issue is it's going to be harder for him to get a RZ look like he did last week.

 
rickyg said:
what does the dez signing do to tre'quan's value?   Ithink he will still get his 2 or 3 deep shots per game, but he will lose targets.  
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Dez does nothing to Smith's value in term of dynasty but for redraft, it is likely to take away his targets.  Smith is now strictly operating Ginn's role as vertical stretcher. 

 
Glad I didn’t drop TQS due to the Dez Bryant signing.  Ruptured achilles and done.  Hope the Saints stop trying to bring in another vet and just get TQS more involved in the offense.

 
-X- said:
Glad I didn’t drop TQS due to the Dez Bryant signing.  Ruptured achilles and done.  Hope the Saints stop trying to bring in another vet and just get TQS more involved in the offense.
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They have a grand total of 3 healthy WRs. They're going to sign another guy, maybe 2.

 
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