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Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
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smcindoe
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't hate that thought at all. He's younger than pretty much everyone in that tier other than Darnold and Goff. His production is great, he runs, and has weapons along with a young offensive coordinator who has shown he and Dak get along great (until Garrett steps in).
Personally, I feel like they are well stocked at TE and RB, plus one legitimate threat at WR in Hollywood. I agree they need more WR help, but I think "none" for weapons isn't quite true.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I've burned through a bunch of RB's for the 2020 class so far and I wanted to share my initial thoughts. It's only about 3 games I watched from each prospect and it's only starting to give me a sense of what type of player they are, but overall I am very impressed. If I were an NFL team, I wouldn't want one of the top guys because the cost is premium and I can use that on more valuable positions while getting a solid starter in the 3rd round or something. As a fantasy gamer, I absolutely want one of my top 4, almost regardless of cost. Anyways here they are with a few notes.
1. D'Andre Swift - I actually wrote a note that says "beast" with a censored word in there as well. Kind of says all you need to know. He's bursty, with good feet, fast, strong, and a good pass catcher. The only thing I noticed off the bat was his route running was kind of lazy, uninvolved and not very detailed, which does irritate me a lot. But he looks natural catching the ball so I'm not too concerned.
2. Travis Etienne - Super explosive, reminds me of Kareem Hunt in that regard that he's just shot out of a cannon when he sticks his foot in and go's. Seems to lack the power and leg drive that Swift has but has great vision and beats 1v1's regularly. Really like him as well. I've had this in my brain that he gets nervous catching the ball (self admittedly) but he looks good as a pass catcher and I wouldn't mind relying on him for that. Not a special catcher though. Maybe it's the orange/white jersey from Clemson but he looks a lot like early Georgia Chubb.
3. Jonathan Taylor - Really good at weaving through traffic. Not as explosive as the other 2, but he's slippery and has good balance so he doesn't go down easily. More patience than the other 2 as well. Just overall a different kind of runner when Etienne and Swift are pretty similar. My preference is those types rather than the Taylor types. My concerns come from his patience, if it's just slow feet, bad vision or just being patient. Haven't really gotten a feel for that yet. Another concern was he has a FB most of the time. I think he's more situation dependent than the others but his talent is pretty high.
4. JK Dobbins - Another more of a patient runner rather than super explosive type. He has quick feet and uses angles well to set up defenders. Seemed to go down easily in the games I watched and he was kind of slow off his cuts. That and my speed questions leads me to question if I'll keep him close to Taylor or not. Taylor and Dobbins are pretty comparable stylistically I think, but Dobbins has more warts.
5. Kylin Hill - Accelerates quickly but he isn't bursting through the hole as well. Has a nice jump cut along with quickness and is explosive when needed. Smart player that knows when to go down and not fight. Doesn't have long speed and bad at blitz pickup. He also ran a lot out of the shotgun but still shows off his acceleration which I find impressive. Plus pass catcher, looking natural and fluid.
6. Zack Moss - Loose hips with good balance. Has some burst, but questionable vision. Snatches the ball with ease when catching and breaks tackles. Lacks elite speed but has enough (maybe). Looks better on downhill plays.
7. Cam Akers - Very impressive on the impressive plays. I think he might be a favorite of mine because he's going to be so undervalued. His o-line was horrendous and it didn't help him improve very much over his college days. He's explosive, has patience, combo's moves well, and is smooth. I really like the talent but I'm wondering if I'm just being generous projecting him to the NFL and giving him a pass for a bad team he was on in college. One thing that just irritates me when watching prospects is not putting in effort. Akers doesn't seem to sell the fakes very well. I think he needs some nuance work.
8. Trey Sermon - A guy who builds up speed and has good shake to his body to set up 1v1's really well. Doesn't use his legs as well, partly because he runs too high. Has enough speed to get outside (maybe), but doesn't have great speed overall. Could be a lead guy in a committee and could have some solid seasons.
9. Eno Benjamin - Has good feet along with some quickness, quick to hit the hole and has some explosiveness. Kind of sloppy athleticism that left me thinking "I'm not so sure about this guy". He's a guy similar to Akers that I don't think his offense helped him out very much. Had a bad o-line and looked indecisive (probably b/c of the o-line). Nice jump cuts with patience and good vision, but looked smaller than listed. Not good at blitz pickup.
So far that's all the RB's I've watched. And to compare them to last year, I'd comfortably say 4 of these are better than any RB from last year. Possibly 2 more. Not quite sure how I want my tiers to break yet as these are initial feelings but that is the current ranking I have them in. Still plenty of games to watch from all of these guys and could easily move around. Swift and Etienne are very likely to be my 1 2.
Still have about 20 more RB's to go through along with watching more of all of these guys. But this is a start. Also need to go through WR's which as always I'll post in this thread.
1. D'Andre Swift - I actually wrote a note that says "beast" with a censored word in there as well. Kind of says all you need to know. He's bursty, with good feet, fast, strong, and a good pass catcher. The only thing I noticed off the bat was his route running was kind of lazy, uninvolved and not very detailed, which does irritate me a lot. But he looks natural catching the ball so I'm not too concerned.
2. Travis Etienne - Super explosive, reminds me of Kareem Hunt in that regard that he's just shot out of a cannon when he sticks his foot in and go's. Seems to lack the power and leg drive that Swift has but has great vision and beats 1v1's regularly. Really like him as well. I've had this in my brain that he gets nervous catching the ball (self admittedly) but he looks good as a pass catcher and I wouldn't mind relying on him for that. Not a special catcher though. Maybe it's the orange/white jersey from Clemson but he looks a lot like early Georgia Chubb.
3. Jonathan Taylor - Really good at weaving through traffic. Not as explosive as the other 2, but he's slippery and has good balance so he doesn't go down easily. More patience than the other 2 as well. Just overall a different kind of runner when Etienne and Swift are pretty similar. My preference is those types rather than the Taylor types. My concerns come from his patience, if it's just slow feet, bad vision or just being patient. Haven't really gotten a feel for that yet. Another concern was he has a FB most of the time. I think he's more situation dependent than the others but his talent is pretty high.
4. JK Dobbins - Another more of a patient runner rather than super explosive type. He has quick feet and uses angles well to set up defenders. Seemed to go down easily in the games I watched and he was kind of slow off his cuts. That and my speed questions leads me to question if I'll keep him close to Taylor or not. Taylor and Dobbins are pretty comparable stylistically I think, but Dobbins has more warts.
5. Kylin Hill - Accelerates quickly but he isn't bursting through the hole as well. Has a nice jump cut along with quickness and is explosive when needed. Smart player that knows when to go down and not fight. Doesn't have long speed and bad at blitz pickup. He also ran a lot out of the shotgun but still shows off his acceleration which I find impressive. Plus pass catcher, looking natural and fluid.
6. Zack Moss - Loose hips with good balance. Has some burst, but questionable vision. Snatches the ball with ease when catching and breaks tackles. Lacks elite speed but has enough (maybe). Looks better on downhill plays.
7. Cam Akers - Very impressive on the impressive plays. I think he might be a favorite of mine because he's going to be so undervalued. His o-line was horrendous and it didn't help him improve very much over his college days. He's explosive, has patience, combo's moves well, and is smooth. I really like the talent but I'm wondering if I'm just being generous projecting him to the NFL and giving him a pass for a bad team he was on in college. One thing that just irritates me when watching prospects is not putting in effort. Akers doesn't seem to sell the fakes very well. I think he needs some nuance work.
8. Trey Sermon - A guy who builds up speed and has good shake to his body to set up 1v1's really well. Doesn't use his legs as well, partly because he runs too high. Has enough speed to get outside (maybe), but doesn't have great speed overall. Could be a lead guy in a committee and could have some solid seasons.
9. Eno Benjamin - Has good feet along with some quickness, quick to hit the hole and has some explosiveness. Kind of sloppy athleticism that left me thinking "I'm not so sure about this guy". He's a guy similar to Akers that I don't think his offense helped him out very much. Had a bad o-line and looked indecisive (probably b/c of the o-line). Nice jump cuts with patience and good vision, but looked smaller than listed. Not good at blitz pickup.
So far that's all the RB's I've watched. And to compare them to last year, I'd comfortably say 4 of these are better than any RB from last year. Possibly 2 more. Not quite sure how I want my tiers to break yet as these are initial feelings but that is the current ranking I have them in. Still plenty of games to watch from all of these guys and could easily move around. Swift and Etienne are very likely to be my 1 2.
Still have about 20 more RB's to go through along with watching more of all of these guys. But this is a start. Also need to go through WR's which as always I'll post in this thread.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Done.
Hubbard was weird for me. The first game I watched was vs Texas and good god he looks absolutely awful. Then the next few games I saw he has a lot of great moves that impressed me. I actually triple checked to see if I watched the right guy/game because it was night and day. Maybe he was nursing an injury or something, I have no idea, but the Texas game puts a bit of a black mark on him in my book.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't hate that opinion, but I feel its being contrarian for contrarian's sake. I don't see how you can possibly rank him ahead of Taylor/Etienne/Swift and possibly Dobbins.
I have an overall problem with big media sites like walterfootball. They tend to be contrarian just so they can gloat if they get it right, when everyone else has Hubbard as a top5 RB anyways. Like ok, we get it, you like him, so does everyone else you just moved him up 2 spots so you can gloat. I don't think you can justify it from both a film perspective, or an analytical one. I haven't looked at the analytical side of things yet, as step 1 of my process is watching them play.
He's probably pretty close to those guys in terms of overall traits, but their ability to use those traits seems to be on a slightly different level than Hubbard. I could see myself putting Hubbard as high as 4 (still better than anyone from last years group), but that Texas game is going to be stuck in my mind for a while. The more games I watch, it might make his overall outlook clearer and he could move his way up. But then again these are all just my initial reactions on these players with very little stats behind it right now. So Hubbard, or anyone, could easily be moved around quite a bit once I dive into them more.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Still just going through RB's but I feel like I'm almost done with them for now. Started sorting some tiers out with a clearer "vision" so to speak of what these players are. Currently I have found 3 favorites and 2 sleepers that I haven't really seen been talked about very much (if at all).
There were 3 RB's that formed what a lot of people called a 3 headed monster at Louisiana, so I was curious to take a look at them and they all impressed me in certain ways. 1 more than the other 2, another 1 of them was more of a COP back type, and the other was decent but not as good, just not quite as good as the other 2. Elijah Mitchell, Trey Ragas, Raymond Calais. 1 of them made my favorites list.
My 3 favorites as of now are D'Andre Swift (hard not to like this guy but the price is going to be super high), Anthony McFarland Jr. (Maryland), and Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana).
They popped off the "tape" while I was watching them and 2 of them will be lost in the crowd of these high profile types of RB's I bet. Around this time last year, one of my favorite was Miles Sanders and he just blew up once the NFL draft process started. Swift obviously is high profile, but the other 2 are not and I like them a lot from a pure watch them play view.
As for some more players and how the rankings are being sorted:
I moved Kylin Hill down a decent amount after looking through some more guys, I think I now realize that Eno Benjamin is just a better version of Kylin Hill so he's moved up. Chuba Hubbard is in my top10, same goes for Najee Harris after I took a look at him.
Just outside my top10 includes guys like Kylin Hill, Elijah Mitchell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KeShawn Vaughn, Trey Ragas, Trey Sermon
A few other guys I looked at that didn't really impress. Not that they were god awful or anything, just more like flier types that don't seem to have the production to really get attention and they didn't "pop off the screen" as much: AJ Dillon, Joshua Kelly, Ty Chandler, Raymond Calais.
Guys I still need to find some more videos on or unwatched: Demetric Felton, Reggie Corbin, Rondale Moore, Jo-El Shaw, Kalif Phillips, Rodney Smith. Probably won't add more players to this list until I go through some WR's, but if there are any glaring omissions please let me know.
There were 3 RB's that formed what a lot of people called a 3 headed monster at Louisiana, so I was curious to take a look at them and they all impressed me in certain ways. 1 more than the other 2, another 1 of them was more of a COP back type, and the other was decent but not as good, just not quite as good as the other 2. Elijah Mitchell, Trey Ragas, Raymond Calais. 1 of them made my favorites list.
My 3 favorites as of now are D'Andre Swift (hard not to like this guy but the price is going to be super high), Anthony McFarland Jr. (Maryland), and Elijah Mitchell (Louisiana).
They popped off the "tape" while I was watching them and 2 of them will be lost in the crowd of these high profile types of RB's I bet. Around this time last year, one of my favorite was Miles Sanders and he just blew up once the NFL draft process started. Swift obviously is high profile, but the other 2 are not and I like them a lot from a pure watch them play view.
As for some more players and how the rankings are being sorted:
I moved Kylin Hill down a decent amount after looking through some more guys, I think I now realize that Eno Benjamin is just a better version of Kylin Hill so he's moved up. Chuba Hubbard is in my top10, same goes for Najee Harris after I took a look at him.
Just outside my top10 includes guys like Kylin Hill, Elijah Mitchell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KeShawn Vaughn, Trey Ragas, Trey Sermon
A few other guys I looked at that didn't really impress. Not that they were god awful or anything, just more like flier types that don't seem to have the production to really get attention and they didn't "pop off the screen" as much: AJ Dillon, Joshua Kelly, Ty Chandler, Raymond Calais.
Guys I still need to find some more videos on or unwatched: Demetric Felton, Reggie Corbin, Rondale Moore, Jo-El Shaw, Kalif Phillips, Rodney Smith. Probably won't add more players to this list until I go through some WR's, but if there are any glaring omissions please let me know.
Zyphros
Footballguy
First thoughts on WR's:
As I mentioned in the 2020 draft thread, I have a surprise top WR. I said this before I watched my new #1 but he still probably makes a controversial #2. Anyways unlike the RB's lets go in reverse order for now. I find myself comparing these WR's a lot to 2018 in just a "poor version of X" or "better version of Y" type of deal. It helps me clarify the type of player they might become as long as it makes sense to what I saw. It also helps me say which Tier I believe they fall in. You might notice the same when you read some of my notes.
10. Juwan Johnson - Big dude. Has some quick feet, not very quick though, not very explosive or fast either. But he's big and bodies up well. Don't have a great sense for him yet but he's likely lower than 10 as there's a bunch of WR's I haven't gotten to yet.
9. Tyler Johnson - Takes too long to set up his get off, with "meh" speed. Has a good shake to him along with probably the best feet out of everyone. Also a plus blocker. A little too start/stop on routes rather than working through the stem sharply and exploding. Perfect blend of size for my liking though. Might give him another harder look. Think he could be a steal later in the draft just not high enough for consideration.
8. Bryan Edwards - Very bendy and loose in his movement, thick and fights through contact well. Doesn't play his size but has good quickness and plant leg for a push. Sort of meh as a prospect overall, has some impressive moments but doesn't impress on the whole.
7. Collin Johnson - I had evaluated him last year even and he was my WR6 at the time of first eval. This class is better overall and comes in at 7. Still like his game. Quick off the line, good speed and size. Doesn't fight through contact as much as I'd like given his size. 8 and 7 are very close for me, not entirely sure I know who I prefer.
6. Jerry Jeudy - I don't see #1 overall WR here. He looks good but I have some nitpicks that I prefer not to see. He doesn't fight contact easily, because he's rather skinny. Good acceleration but I don't see great routes (lots of rounding). Cradle catches a lot over the should which isn't a bad thing, but with his drops makes it the slightest bit concerning. It does show really good tracking though, and that's mostly how he's being used it seems. Guys ahead of him on this list show better hands to me. Body type like Sammy Coates, movement like Beckham/Boyd. Loved Odell coming out, hated Boyd. Not sure what to make of him exactly but no denying he's talented. I honestly just think his long legs are making me low on him.
5. CeeDee Lamb - Smooth runner with a good release. Above average speed and quickness. I see a lot of cradle catches as well, but I see more snatching the ball too than Jeudy. One of the main reasons I have him ahead at this time. The combine drills will sort that out for me a lot. Likes being physical on blocks, but needs more strength running through press. Get's re-directed too much.
4. Laviska Shenault - Smooth runner, strong as can be, could even lose 5 pounds and still be fine, add to his quickness, which he has already at 220 pounds. He's bursty and runs good routes. Mostly snatches the ball which I prefer. Straight up beast. He reminded me a lot of Larry Fitzgerald when I watched him. Body type and usage wise. Shenault and Lamb are really close to me, the usage is just so different I think I prefer Shenault rather than the over the top kind of guy.
3. Jalen Reagor - Lots of end arounds, similar to Parris Campbell last year, cuts sharply and quickly, works to the ball really well and he plays bigger than his size. And to add to all that, he's 21. The comp I had for him was a quick Jarvis Landry. He's just used creatively and might be a little more landing spot dependent, but age, production, and skillset tell me he's a great prospect.
2. This is the interesting one I had mentioned. Tylan Wallace - Absolutely popped off the screen more than anyone else. Probably sinks the best out of all of them, along with the best hands. Separation seemed easy for him and high points well. All around great game where some others might be more "specialty" or "niche". Needs a little refinement but he looked great. I'm hoping at this point he flies under the radar cause he is already a must own for me.
1. Tee Higgins - Quick feet, snatcher of the football and works back to the ball well. Might have better hands than Wallace. Tracks a little better and body control is incredible. Good blocker and my favorite trait to see is that he is just a smart player. He looked just like Torry Holt.
WalterFootball has Higgins and Wallace at 11 and 16 respectively
. I've seen Higgins in some top5's but he's my #1. The highest I've seen Wallace is #7.
I try my best to stay away from highlight reels until I have a good sense of the player so I haven't really done any of that yet. And keep in mind, most of these only have 2-4 games out that I can watch, I'll watch more when the games become available. This is also just first thoughts as people can easily rise/fall. The more I watch the more my view might change. Right now I have Higgins/Wallace as a Tier 1 player (better than anyone from last year), the next 4 I have them in Tier2, which is very comparable to those I had in 2018. AJ Brown, Preston Williams, N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon were Tier2 last year for reference. As for the ones after that I feel like they can move quite a bit.
If I didn't list a player, I haven't watched them yet. Guys next on my list: Brandon Aiyuk, Henry Ruggs, Devonta Smith, Juan Jennings, Theo Howard, Denzel Mims. Total list is about 50 deep.
As I mentioned in the 2020 draft thread, I have a surprise top WR. I said this before I watched my new #1 but he still probably makes a controversial #2. Anyways unlike the RB's lets go in reverse order for now. I find myself comparing these WR's a lot to 2018 in just a "poor version of X" or "better version of Y" type of deal. It helps me clarify the type of player they might become as long as it makes sense to what I saw. It also helps me say which Tier I believe they fall in. You might notice the same when you read some of my notes.
10. Juwan Johnson - Big dude. Has some quick feet, not very quick though, not very explosive or fast either. But he's big and bodies up well. Don't have a great sense for him yet but he's likely lower than 10 as there's a bunch of WR's I haven't gotten to yet.
9. Tyler Johnson - Takes too long to set up his get off, with "meh" speed. Has a good shake to him along with probably the best feet out of everyone. Also a plus blocker. A little too start/stop on routes rather than working through the stem sharply and exploding. Perfect blend of size for my liking though. Might give him another harder look. Think he could be a steal later in the draft just not high enough for consideration.
8. Bryan Edwards - Very bendy and loose in his movement, thick and fights through contact well. Doesn't play his size but has good quickness and plant leg for a push. Sort of meh as a prospect overall, has some impressive moments but doesn't impress on the whole.
7. Collin Johnson - I had evaluated him last year even and he was my WR6 at the time of first eval. This class is better overall and comes in at 7. Still like his game. Quick off the line, good speed and size. Doesn't fight through contact as much as I'd like given his size. 8 and 7 are very close for me, not entirely sure I know who I prefer.
6. Jerry Jeudy - I don't see #1 overall WR here. He looks good but I have some nitpicks that I prefer not to see. He doesn't fight contact easily, because he's rather skinny. Good acceleration but I don't see great routes (lots of rounding). Cradle catches a lot over the should which isn't a bad thing, but with his drops makes it the slightest bit concerning. It does show really good tracking though, and that's mostly how he's being used it seems. Guys ahead of him on this list show better hands to me. Body type like Sammy Coates, movement like Beckham/Boyd. Loved Odell coming out, hated Boyd. Not sure what to make of him exactly but no denying he's talented. I honestly just think his long legs are making me low on him.
5. CeeDee Lamb - Smooth runner with a good release. Above average speed and quickness. I see a lot of cradle catches as well, but I see more snatching the ball too than Jeudy. One of the main reasons I have him ahead at this time. The combine drills will sort that out for me a lot. Likes being physical on blocks, but needs more strength running through press. Get's re-directed too much.
4. Laviska Shenault - Smooth runner, strong as can be, could even lose 5 pounds and still be fine, add to his quickness, which he has already at 220 pounds. He's bursty and runs good routes. Mostly snatches the ball which I prefer. Straight up beast. He reminded me a lot of Larry Fitzgerald when I watched him. Body type and usage wise. Shenault and Lamb are really close to me, the usage is just so different I think I prefer Shenault rather than the over the top kind of guy.
3. Jalen Reagor - Lots of end arounds, similar to Parris Campbell last year, cuts sharply and quickly, works to the ball really well and he plays bigger than his size. And to add to all that, he's 21. The comp I had for him was a quick Jarvis Landry. He's just used creatively and might be a little more landing spot dependent, but age, production, and skillset tell me he's a great prospect.
2. This is the interesting one I had mentioned. Tylan Wallace - Absolutely popped off the screen more than anyone else. Probably sinks the best out of all of them, along with the best hands. Separation seemed easy for him and high points well. All around great game where some others might be more "specialty" or "niche". Needs a little refinement but he looked great. I'm hoping at this point he flies under the radar cause he is already a must own for me.
1. Tee Higgins - Quick feet, snatcher of the football and works back to the ball well. Might have better hands than Wallace. Tracks a little better and body control is incredible. Good blocker and my favorite trait to see is that he is just a smart player. He looked just like Torry Holt.
WalterFootball has Higgins and Wallace at 11 and 16 respectively
. I've seen Higgins in some top5's but he's my #1. The highest I've seen Wallace is #7. I try my best to stay away from highlight reels until I have a good sense of the player so I haven't really done any of that yet. And keep in mind, most of these only have 2-4 games out that I can watch, I'll watch more when the games become available. This is also just first thoughts as people can easily rise/fall. The more I watch the more my view might change. Right now I have Higgins/Wallace as a Tier 1 player (better than anyone from last year), the next 4 I have them in Tier2, which is very comparable to those I had in 2018. AJ Brown, Preston Williams, N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon were Tier2 last year for reference. As for the ones after that I feel like they can move quite a bit.
If I didn't list a player, I haven't watched them yet. Guys next on my list: Brandon Aiyuk, Henry Ruggs, Devonta Smith, Juan Jennings, Theo Howard, Denzel Mims. Total list is about 50 deep.
ZWK
Footballguy
My formula is also high on Wallace (currently at WR4 but this could move around as more info comes in). He has the best production track record of any WR in this draft class, thanks to back-to-back huge years. Main knock on him is his size (listed at 185 lbs).
Zyphros
Footballguy
I was reading up on that offense a bit and they were saying because of scheme, they want to throw the ball deep regularly. That's part of the reason James Washington was such a big producer there before Wallace was. And Wallace kind of came out of no-where when Washington and Ateman left. I'll have to read up on that offense a bit but it could also explain why your formula is high on him.
The main reasons I liked him a lot was because he high points well and you can see by the way he plays that he plays with an edge and a certain attitude. Similar to Steve Smith in that way. Looks like a pure effort guy and I love him for that.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
You have a look at Justin Jefferson yet?
Zyphros
Footballguy
I have now. Took me a while cause I got bored with doing some eval's now that I've gone through ~50 players.
He just looks "meh" to me. Not exceptionally quick, tough, big or any defining feature as much. I do like his hands a lot (might have the best hands in the class) and he does fight through press well. I hate his footwork when it comes to breaks in his route on deeper patterns, shorter ones he's a lot better. Maybe he just doesn't expect the ball on deeper ones?
That's from a talent perspective, which is about half my view on a player. If he does well in drills at the combine, tests well, and gets drafted highly then he could move past a few guys I have him lumped in with. That goes for any of these prospects.
Zyphros
Footballguy
At this point last year, before combine and NFL draft spot you can find my rankings HERE for the WR's, and HERE for the RB's. Don't compare those tiers to the one's I have for this year. They were based purely on talent without any thought into a draft order. No surprises this year like I had Preston Williams as my #1 in 2019. I then introduced my tier system AFTER I did all that so it isn't a direct 1:1 comparison. You can find the Tiers I introduced and their descriptions along with a total list of players from 2019 HERE. Use that one to compare tiers. I put the 2020 players into tiers right away so this should help keep that process cleaner in the future.
Anyways on to some rookie tiers and rankings. I'm going to list them in positional order, RB's first, WR's second. The order they are listed is the order I would rank them based on talent, but not necessarily the order I would draft them. I have rules in place that I would use for that but it's generally pretty close. A RB in a tier below COULD be drafted ahead of a WR in the tier above, possibly Etienne > Higgins or Shenault for example.
Tier 1 - The God Tier - Self explanatory
D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault. I'm honestly not sure if I want to put any WR in tier1 anymore but I do really like both of these guys more than the next tier
Tier 2 - The Demi-God Tier - Guys that create a legend for themselves, not a generational talent
Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor
Tier 3 - The Fighter Tier - Otherwise known as very solid players, above average with a decent chance to be special
Jonathan Taylor, Eno Benjamin, Zack Moss, Cam Akers, Elijah Mitchell, Bryan Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs
Tier 4 - The Good Soldier Tier - Otherwise known as solid enough players, could be special in the right circumstances
Kylin Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Anthony McFarland Jr., Denzel Mims, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Justin Jefferson
Tier 5 - Questionable Starter Tier - Self explanatory
Trey Sermon, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, AJ Dillon, Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk, Kalija Lipscomb, John Hightower
Personal favorites from all these players include: D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Elijah Mitchell, Bryan Edwards, Anthony McFarland Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Everyone else that I have gone through isn't worth mentioning in a ranking because they would be flier types. That includes 12 other players, Trey Ragas, Joshua Kelley, Ty Chandler, Raymond Calais, Demetric Felton, Reggie Corbin, Juwan Johnson, Devin Duvernay, Juaun Jennings, Chase Claypool, KJ Hill, Gabriel Davis
Anyways on to some rookie tiers and rankings. I'm going to list them in positional order, RB's first, WR's second. The order they are listed is the order I would rank them based on talent, but not necessarily the order I would draft them. I have rules in place that I would use for that but it's generally pretty close. A RB in a tier below COULD be drafted ahead of a WR in the tier above, possibly Etienne > Higgins or Shenault for example.
Tier 1 - The God Tier - Self explanatory
D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault. I'm honestly not sure if I want to put any WR in tier1 anymore but I do really like both of these guys more than the next tier
Tier 2 - The Demi-God Tier - Guys that create a legend for themselves, not a generational talent
Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor
Tier 3 - The Fighter Tier - Otherwise known as very solid players, above average with a decent chance to be special
Jonathan Taylor, Eno Benjamin, Zack Moss, Cam Akers, Elijah Mitchell, Bryan Edwards, Tyler Johnson, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs
Tier 4 - The Good Soldier Tier - Otherwise known as solid enough players, could be special in the right circumstances
Kylin Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Anthony McFarland Jr., Denzel Mims, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Justin Jefferson
Tier 5 - Questionable Starter Tier - Self explanatory
Trey Sermon, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, AJ Dillon, Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk, Kalija Lipscomb, John Hightower
Personal favorites from all these players include: D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Elijah Mitchell, Bryan Edwards, Anthony McFarland Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Everyone else that I have gone through isn't worth mentioning in a ranking because they would be flier types. That includes 12 other players, Trey Ragas, Joshua Kelley, Ty Chandler, Raymond Calais, Demetric Felton, Reggie Corbin, Juwan Johnson, Devin Duvernay, Juaun Jennings, Chase Claypool, KJ Hill, Gabriel Davis
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
good posting Zyphros and about time!!! LOL
The way I see it, these are the top 6 RB/WR and that makes for a killer first round in dynasty rookie drafts....and the talent in the top of round 2 wont be bad either.
D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Akers and Najee Harris
Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy,Tyler Johnson,Henry Ruggs
wgoldsph
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I don't think he has officially declared, I thought there was a good chance he goes back to school?
When is the deadline? the 14th?
WTF why hasn't the LSU Clemson game been played yet?
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Thanks for the rankings Zyphros. I hadn't see Higgins up as high as you had him so I went back and took a look.
From the game film I watched he seemed to move very fluid as WR, good footwork, excellent body control and catch point. I really didn't like his speed and noticed a lot of times when he was burning corners it was against inferior comp so I wonder if that will translate to NFL.
Shenault seems to have amazing balance and good vision. I never usually note this for WR, but he makes cuts and gets the most out of screens and catches. I have a hard time evaluating smaller school prospects so for that I defer a lot to the experts/drop a player some to account for this.
Any rebuttal to defend?
I only say this because he is in God tier which as you put it is Saquon tier.
From the game film I watched he seemed to move very fluid as WR, good footwork, excellent body control and catch point. I really didn't like his speed and noticed a lot of times when he was burning corners it was against inferior comp so I wonder if that will translate to NFL.
Shenault seems to have amazing balance and good vision. I never usually note this for WR, but he makes cuts and gets the most out of screens and catches. I have a hard time evaluating smaller school prospects so for that I defer a lot to the experts/drop a player some to account for this.
Any rebuttal to defend?
I only say this because he is in God tier which as you put it is Saquon tier.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
It's a little bit of both. I don't see Lamb or Jeudy with the fantasy upside that Higgins or Shenault present. Lamb is closer to them, in both ceiling and talent, which is why he's ahead of Jeudy. I like Higgins and Shenault's hands better than Lamb and Jeudy, they are actually built in body type, and they're both just so smooth in their movement. I was impressed by those factors more so than Lamb and Jeudy.
Pretty sure he said he'd announce it tomorrow (11th), but it still helps to put him in the rookie pool. At least for now.
You defended it yourself ha. The fluidity that Higgins has and smoothness that Shenualt has is what separates them to me. That plus their hands and versatility. I haven't seen drop rates for 2019 yet but those 2 just pluck the ball so easily. I've seen some bad drops by these other guys.
The "god tier" is meant for players that I have so few questions about. Higgins and Shenault fit that description. I'm not sure if they belong a tier ahead of the others though. If you watch Higgins the majority of his routes are down the sideline as an outside threat, but if you watch carefully you'll see some over the middle and short type of routes as well. He is more diverse than I think people give him credit for, and on those routes he has easy separation a lot of the time. That's something I couldn't say about a guy like Harry from last year for example (who was a tier2 player in his own right). I'd watch the South Carolina game to see some good routes, even on down the field work. I think his speed is above average though. I'm not worried about it all.
Shenault just looked so much like Larry Fitzgerald to me when I watched him I can't not really like the guy. So smooth in how he runs, great cutting ability and built like a truck. Snatches the ball, plays all routes, and fast. Unless there are work ethic concerns or bad attitudes or something, I don't see either of these guys failing. I see safer floors and high ceilings with these 2 which is why I put them in Tier1 to begin.
I think I convinced myself by writing this that those 2 belong a tier higher. It was so easy to write it down and in turn it helped my brain process. Thanks for the questions.
Thanks as always! @Dr. Dan and @smbkrypt24 asked and got answers for my initial questions. Could you provide some more insight into a couple of your personal favorites?
Elijah Mitchell
Anthony McFarland Jr.
Elijah Mitchell
Anthony McFarland Jr.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I really disagree with this, it's the exact opposite in my opinion. Jeudy can flip his hips 3 times before Shenault can flip his once. Same for Higgins. That may be slight hyperbole, but Jeudy has insanely fast hips and also has the best change of direction skills we've seen in a while. Those traits are so amazing we don't even talk about his speed that much.Zyphros said:
The body type is where Higgins and Shenault have the advantage, but I think it's a big mistake to overlook Jeudy and Lamb for those two.
Looking forward to more discussions as we go forward and I really appreciate you bringing a different take than the consensus. I will enjoy either being convinced, or not
.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't disagree that Jeudy has looser hips, he also has looser knee's which doesn't help him be as fluid. He relies on his athleticism to me, which isn't a bad thing, but I like seeing more nuance and smart plays rather than just big plays. Paints their projection with a broader brush I think. They are used differently which I'd caution against judging them 1:1 so closely. Jeudy is used a ton on shallow slants and bubble screens, Shenault is too sometimes, Higgins not as often. It takes a different kind of movement, one which Jeudy uses well.I really disagree with this, it's the exact opposite in my opinion. Jeudy can flip his hips 3 times before Shenault can flip his once. Same for Higgins. That may be slight hyperbole, but Jeudy has insanely fast hips and also has the best change of direction skills we've seen in a while. Those traits are so amazing we don't even talk about his speed that much.
The body type is where Higgins and Shenault have the advantage, but I think it's a big mistake to overlook Jeudy and Lamb for those two.
Looking forward to more discussions as we go forward and I really appreciate you bringing a different take than the consensus. I will enjoy either being convinced, or not
Jeudy, although looks great, what exactly is his ceiling? I don't see it as super high, mostly due to body type and relying on athleticism instead of actual honed skill. I saw a comp from someone on twitter saying he plays like Marvin Jones, and I loved the comp. I think his body type looks like a stretched out Odell though.
Could he learn all that nuance and subtle moves? Sure, but he has to learn it all, build his weight at least a little (without sacrificing speed), and find a good scheme. 3 things needed where I think Higgins and Shenault only need 1 of those, a good scheme for them.
Elijah Mitchell broke out as a sophomore with over 1300 yards total, 16 TD's and 6.7 Yards per carry, along with 17.5 Yards per catch. He spearheaded a 3 headed monster at Louisiana. The only game I found of his on Youtube was against Alabama in 2018, literally only 2 minutes long. But he was so impressive. I started reading up on that offense a bit and the other RB's Trey Ragas and Raymond Calais, Calais being a worse version of Mitchell and Ragas the explosive COP back type, but Mitchell stands out. Quick, elusive, powerful, big, good pass catcher, and breaks tackles. The traits themselves are there for a great RB, he did it in a bad conference on a good team. Mitchell mostly maxed out around 15 carries a game (averaged just over 14 for this year) which is a little worrisome.
For Anthony McFarland Jr., he only played 2 years at Maryland. He broke out as a freshman in 2018 with over 1000 yards rushing (1034), but he didn't prove much of a pass catcher. He is smaller listed at 5'9", and plays elusively and quick. Pretty thick for his size and explosive. Might even be the 2nd most explosive RB in the draft behind Etienne. He crossed paths with Ty Johnson at Maryland in 2018, and here's a story as to how he got that starting job. Ty Johnson was an underdog type last year for some, I'm putting my chips in a different Maryland RB to make an impact.
I'm likely to be higher on those 2 than anyone else when it comes to rookie drafts so hopefully I get my pieces where I can.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
I think Higgins is going to get downgraded at the combine or during the process. I don't see him putting up the speed numbers that earn draft capital. He ran a 4.75 in his athletic testing coming into College, and gained around 25 lbs while in college.
Gaining 25 lbs while shaving four tenths off of a forty time has been done before (Jazz Ferguson, and DK Metcalf did it but only gained 18ish), but I think it's more likely we see Higgins run in the higher 4.5s or in the 4.60-4.65 range.
I think it's more likely that Higgins is this years Kelvin Harmon, who slightly fails the combine testing and slides way more than we thought, than he is this years top WR in the class. He could also be a Hakeem Butler who doesn't fail the combine but slides anyway while teams grab the small, fast separation guys. The 2019 consensus mock on Butler had him going at the end of the 1st round, and hes very similar to Higgins in terms of athletic measurables.
I really respect both Dan and Zyphros opinions on this, so I'm anxious to keep digging deeper - this is going to be a fun offseason.
I do like him, just like others better in this class.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Higgins does have the breakout age metrics we like and he passes the eye test
I'm probably being too conservative, but I'm trying to listen to what the NFL said about the WR prototypes they want last year and the prior year. I think teams are adapting to smaller faster players.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Some have speed questions and I get why, but he has plenty of speed. He isn't a blazer, but I don't think the 40 will hurt him in any way. I expect sub 4.6 which would be absolutely great for a 6'4" 215 lb guy. Metcalf is the exception to that and that didn't really even help him get drafted higher now did it? I think it's more about versatility and people weren't sure how versatile Metcalf was (me included). He's proved a little bit of that by now after his rookie year. Higgins is way more versatile than Butler is/was, and more athletic than Kelvin Harmon is/was. I don't think I ever went to bat for Butler, I know I did for Harmon. Still opportunity for both, and both have a similar body type to Higgins. I think Higgins is better than both though, by quite a bit.
Other than the athletic testing I think Higgins will separate himself in the drills. His hands, body control, and tracking are among the best in this class, possibly THE best. Plus as you mentioned he broke out young. Dude is just good.
Other than the athletic testing I think Higgins will separate himself in the drills. His hands, body control, and tracking are among the best in this class, possibly THE best. Plus as you mentioned he broke out young. Dude is just good.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
My take on this is that it's not about being small or big, it's about being fast and able to separate. If you're big too AND fast with the ability to separate, that's even better than just being fast. If you're big and slowish, and they have to trust you to beat the defender at the high point of the ball instead of getting separation, that's where the player can fall.
All of the players you mentioned succeeding are winning in space for the most part vs winning at the catch point. Higgins could have struggles similar to JJAW, but that said I think all of the rookie WRs have a shot to develop still.
I think Higgins is a point of catch guy primarily, but he is a good zone beater also. Shenault scares me because IMO he is far less polished than Jeudy, and Jeudy is better YAC than Shenault IMO... even though that is kind of Laviska's thing.
Eta: Dez Bryant types are being phased out or devalued, but the Juilo types are as valuable as ever.
Higgins could be a bigger DeAndre Hopkins type I guess, that would be a very nice ceiling to have.
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Country Boy
Footballguy
I agree with you. To me, Jeudy and Lamb are the 1 & 2 receivers. Jeudy is an elite route runner while Lamb is dynamic RAC.I really disagree with this, it's the exact opposite in my opinion. Jeudy can flip his hips 3 times before Shenault can flip his once. Same for Higgins. That may be slight hyperbole, but Jeudy has insanely fast hips and also has the best change of direction skills we've seen in a while. Those traits are so amazing we don't even talk about his speed that much.
The body type is where Higgins and Shenault have the advantage, but I think it's a big mistake to overlook Jeudy and Lamb for those two.
Looking forward to more discussions as we go forward and I really appreciate you bringing a different take than the consensus. I will enjoy either being convinced, or not
Zyphros
Footballguy
Getting a little ahead of myself here but the more I look at the prospects the more I want to put them into dynasty rankings already. Not going to do that quite yet, but I did want to share my opinions on where the picks should be valued. There are still other players I'd likely draft ahead of where I'm saying, but the value itself to sell should be a little higher if you're going to give it up. You probably view them slightly higher than the rest as a buyer. I don't think it's far off for someone who really like's player X that they'd have to pay up to get that draft pick/player.
I view Saquon and McCaffrey ahead of all other RB's in their own tier, along with 3-4 WR's. I would put the 1.01 right after it at RB3 in dynasty though. Roughly 6th-10th overall in a startup.
1.02 a few spots down. Add in some tier 2 guys (probably 4 other RB's and 5 WR's), insert 1.02. Roughly 15th-20th overall in a startup.
1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06 I'd put them all back to back at the end of that 2nd tier, so basically just 3-4 spots down. 25th-30th overall in a startup.
After that we get to a tier drop from my rankings but they're pretty close so we're looking at the next few spots, not far down at all. So the rest of the 1st round (1.07-1.12). Probably close to 35th-50th overall.
The combine will narrow that down a little more probably and then draft position/landing spot even more. But for now it looks like one hell of a 1st round of rookies.
I view Saquon and McCaffrey ahead of all other RB's in their own tier, along with 3-4 WR's. I would put the 1.01 right after it at RB3 in dynasty though. Roughly 6th-10th overall in a startup.
1.02 a few spots down. Add in some tier 2 guys (probably 4 other RB's and 5 WR's), insert 1.02. Roughly 15th-20th overall in a startup.
1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06 I'd put them all back to back at the end of that 2nd tier, so basically just 3-4 spots down. 25th-30th overall in a startup.
After that we get to a tier drop from my rankings but they're pretty close so we're looking at the next few spots, not far down at all. So the rest of the 1st round (1.07-1.12). Probably close to 35th-50th overall.
The combine will narrow that down a little more probably and then draft position/landing spot even more. But for now it looks like one hell of a 1st round of rookies.
Appreciate your thoughts as usual, but I wouldn't trade Zeke, Kamara, Chubb, or Cook for the 1.1. I would put the 1.1 in a tier with Jacobs/Henry/Mixon I think.
I do agree that 2-6 should be higher than usual, but I would have to write it out to see how high they would actually fall in my rankings.
I do agree that 2-6 should be higher than usual, but I would have to write it out to see how high they would actually fall in my rankings.
Zyphros
Footballguy
A few more additions/movement from my initial assessment HERE:
I've seen a few more games of Bryan Edwards - I've moved him up to Tier2, behind Reagor. I want to move Edwards up even more, up to WR3 and the start of Tier2, but I don't think I can. He's now a favorite of mine though. I do prefer him over Lamb and Jeudy, but from a talent perspective I don't think I can do it. Maybe after the combine I can.
Cam Akers has moved up ahead of Moss and Benjamin in Tier3
Moss has moved behind Elijah Mitchell in Tier3 (bumping my favorite RB more so than Moss being bad)
Quintez Cephus is a new add, he moves in right behind Collin Johnson in Tier3 (Johnson, Cephus, and Ruggs are the only 3 in that tier now)
Isaiah Hodgins is a new add as well, going in at the bottom of tier4
Tier5 WR's has a bunch of new additions, probably easiest just to put them in a new order. Michael Pittman, Lynn Bowden (new add), Brandon Aiyuk, Quartney Davis (new add), Marquez Callaway (new add), Kalija Lipscomb, John Hightower, Aaron Parker (new add)
Demetric Felton and Ty Chandler move up to the bottom of the Tier5 RB's
Lamical Perine is the only player who's a new addition that didn't make it into my top5 tiers
I've seen a few more games of Bryan Edwards - I've moved him up to Tier2, behind Reagor. I want to move Edwards up even more, up to WR3 and the start of Tier2, but I don't think I can. He's now a favorite of mine though. I do prefer him over Lamb and Jeudy, but from a talent perspective I don't think I can do it. Maybe after the combine I can.
Cam Akers has moved up ahead of Moss and Benjamin in Tier3
Moss has moved behind Elijah Mitchell in Tier3 (bumping my favorite RB more so than Moss being bad)
Quintez Cephus is a new add, he moves in right behind Collin Johnson in Tier3 (Johnson, Cephus, and Ruggs are the only 3 in that tier now)
Isaiah Hodgins is a new add as well, going in at the bottom of tier4
Tier5 WR's has a bunch of new additions, probably easiest just to put them in a new order. Michael Pittman, Lynn Bowden (new add), Brandon Aiyuk, Quartney Davis (new add), Marquez Callaway (new add), Kalija Lipscomb, John Hightower, Aaron Parker (new add)
Demetric Felton and Ty Chandler move up to the bottom of the Tier5 RB's
Lamical Perine is the only player who's a new addition that didn't make it into my top5 tiers
Zyphros
Footballguy
My favorites list from about 10 days ago, D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Elijah Mitchell, Bryan Edwards, Anthony McFarland Jr., Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Add in Gabriel Davis and Denzel Mims to that list now. Total of 8, when last year I had 8 as well.
Only 3 of those from 2019 had 0 production, 2 of them were very long shot players anyways (Jalin Moore who was on PUP all year I think and Anthony Ratliff-Williams who was a PS player), Kahale Warring being the 3rd.
I'm pretty much over watching prospects by now, just too lazy, but if there's anyone someone wants me to get to I could do that. I've gone through about 60 players total, and it gave me a great list that I feel fills out a rookie draft fully. Post combine will give me more players to look at as well, but for now I think I'm calling it unless there's some glaring omission.
I'll begin adding these rookies into full dynasty rankings in the next few days/weeks and I'll post those when I feel I have a good enough grasp of that.
Add in Gabriel Davis and Denzel Mims to that list now. Total of 8, when last year I had 8 as well.
Only 3 of those from 2019 had 0 production, 2 of them were very long shot players anyways (Jalin Moore who was on PUP all year I think and Anthony Ratliff-Williams who was a PS player), Kahale Warring being the 3rd.
I'm pretty much over watching prospects by now, just too lazy, but if there's anyone someone wants me to get to I could do that. I've gone through about 60 players total, and it gave me a great list that I feel fills out a rookie draft fully. Post combine will give me more players to look at as well, but for now I think I'm calling it unless there's some glaring omission.
I'll begin adding these rookies into full dynasty rankings in the next few days/weeks and I'll post those when I feel I have a good enough grasp of that.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Last rookie update before dynasty rankings. There has been some movement as I got some heights/weight in's from the senior bowl. Plus I dove into some analytical aspects of these guys. I've also moved all my favorites to the top of their respective tiers at their position. They are ordered from RB - WR - QB - TE. Bolded players are my personal favorites so this is a little more reflective of how I'd rank them. Here are my current tiers based on my previous descriptions of talent.
Tier 1 - D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Joe Burrow
Tier 2 - JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Bryan Edwards, Jalen Reagor, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tua Tagovailoa
Tier 3 - Elijah Mitchell, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Denzel Mims, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney, Harrison Bryant
Tier 4 - Anthony McFarland Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Eno Benjamin, Michael Warren, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Michael Pittman Jr., Isaiah Hodgins, Brycen Hopkins, Cole Kmet
Tier 5 - Trey Sermon, AJ Dillon, Ty Chandler, Quartney Davis, Kalija Lipscomb, Marquez Callaway, John Hightower, Aaron Parker
That's all the ones of note, everyone else I've evaluated is a flier type that should be considered 4th round or later in rookie drafts. This is 45 players deep with limited QB's and TE's for now.
As for an actual ranking, I use some rules to elevate RB's and devalue QB's and TE's. A RB from Tier3 is comparable to a WR from Tier2. A TE from Tier2 would be comparable to a WR from Tier3. A QB from Tier1 would be comparable to a WR from Tier2 (unless it's for 2 QB leagues which the tier remains). The tiers for my rankings are slightly different with that viewpoint so it get's broken down into Tier A, B, C, D, E, F which is pretty self explanatory (just call it a grade). Helps me find tier gaps easily in the rookie draft. With that being said here would be a top37 (weird number I know, but the rest is the last tier which doesn't need listing) ranking of these guys with those rules in place:
Tier A Draft Pick (1) D'Andre Swift, (2) JK Dobbins, (3) Cam Akers, (4) Jonathan Taylor, (5) Tee Higgins, (6) Laviska Shenault
Tier B Draft Pick (7) Bryan Edwards, (8) Jalen Reagor, (9) Elijah Mitchell, (10) Joe Burrow, (11) CeeDee Lamb, (12) Jerry Jeudy, (13) Zack Moss
Tier C Draft Pick (13) Gabriel Davis, (14) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (15) Denzel Mims, (16) Tyler Johnson, (17) Tua Tagovailoa, (18) Anthony McFarland Jr., (19) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (20) Quintez Cephus, (21) Collin Johnson, (22) Henry Ruggs, (23) Justin Jefferson, (24) Eno Benjamin, (25) Michael Warren, (26) Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tier D Draft Pick (27) Trey Sermon, (28) AJ Dillon, (29) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (30) Brandin Aiyuk, (31) Lynn Bowden, (32) Ty Chandler, (33) Hunter Bryant, (34) Michael Pittman, (35) Jared Pinkney, (36) Harrison Bryant, (37) Isaiah Hodgins
This is mostly based on their talent I perceive them at with some analytics sprinkled in to how I view a player. This would be the board that I use to draft from, but it's still incomplete. I need sizes/weights from the combine, and draft capital and landing spot from the NFL Draft, which allows players to move up/down a tier based on what they show and where they end up situation wise. So for example if Laviska Shenault weights in at 232 or something, doesn't impress in drills and lands in a terrible spot he could move down 2 tiers into Tier Group C. That's how I complete my rookie board's. And I use my rookie board to insert these players into my full dynasty rankings. This is about 1/3 of the way done.
Tier 1 - D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Joe Burrow
Tier 2 - JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Bryan Edwards, Jalen Reagor, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tua Tagovailoa
Tier 3 - Elijah Mitchell, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Denzel Mims, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney, Harrison Bryant
Tier 4 - Anthony McFarland Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Eno Benjamin, Michael Warren, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Michael Pittman Jr., Isaiah Hodgins, Brycen Hopkins, Cole Kmet
Tier 5 - Trey Sermon, AJ Dillon, Ty Chandler, Quartney Davis, Kalija Lipscomb, Marquez Callaway, John Hightower, Aaron Parker
That's all the ones of note, everyone else I've evaluated is a flier type that should be considered 4th round or later in rookie drafts. This is 45 players deep with limited QB's and TE's for now.
As for an actual ranking, I use some rules to elevate RB's and devalue QB's and TE's. A RB from Tier3 is comparable to a WR from Tier2. A TE from Tier2 would be comparable to a WR from Tier3. A QB from Tier1 would be comparable to a WR from Tier2 (unless it's for 2 QB leagues which the tier remains). The tiers for my rankings are slightly different with that viewpoint so it get's broken down into Tier A, B, C, D, E, F which is pretty self explanatory (just call it a grade). Helps me find tier gaps easily in the rookie draft. With that being said here would be a top37 (weird number I know, but the rest is the last tier which doesn't need listing) ranking of these guys with those rules in place:
Tier A Draft Pick (1) D'Andre Swift, (2) JK Dobbins, (3) Cam Akers, (4) Jonathan Taylor, (5) Tee Higgins, (6) Laviska Shenault
Tier B Draft Pick (7) Bryan Edwards, (8) Jalen Reagor, (9) Elijah Mitchell, (10) Joe Burrow, (11) CeeDee Lamb, (12) Jerry Jeudy, (13) Zack Moss
Tier C Draft Pick (13) Gabriel Davis, (14) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (15) Denzel Mims, (16) Tyler Johnson, (17) Tua Tagovailoa, (18) Anthony McFarland Jr., (19) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (20) Quintez Cephus, (21) Collin Johnson, (22) Henry Ruggs, (23) Justin Jefferson, (24) Eno Benjamin, (25) Michael Warren, (26) Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Tier D Draft Pick (27) Trey Sermon, (28) AJ Dillon, (29) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (30) Brandin Aiyuk, (31) Lynn Bowden, (32) Ty Chandler, (33) Hunter Bryant, (34) Michael Pittman, (35) Jared Pinkney, (36) Harrison Bryant, (37) Isaiah Hodgins
This is mostly based on their talent I perceive them at with some analytics sprinkled in to how I view a player. This would be the board that I use to draft from, but it's still incomplete. I need sizes/weights from the combine, and draft capital and landing spot from the NFL Draft, which allows players to move up/down a tier based on what they show and where they end up situation wise. So for example if Laviska Shenault weights in at 232 or something, doesn't impress in drills and lands in a terrible spot he could move down 2 tiers into Tier Group C. That's how I complete my rookie board's. And I use my rookie board to insert these players into my full dynasty rankings. This is about 1/3 of the way done.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I do something like that every time I feelFor what it's worth, you actually have a top 38, since you had 13 listed twice
grateful zed
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
GREAT JOB Z!
Zyphros
Footballguy
Dynasty rankings time. Let's start with the WR's because that's usually where I focus since there are a lot more WR prospects that I feel are worth ranking than RB prospects. It will show the same draft order for rookie's as my board from above. Also added a few notes into each tier explaining. Feel free to ask questions though.
This list only goes through my top40 rookies, I have another ~12 WR's that are not a part of this list but if they aren't on here I don't view them worthy of being drafted anyways. This is a top100 WR list and after I click "submit reply" I'm sure I'll have forgotten a name or doubled up on a number (or completely forgot one), so someone point it to me and I'll adjust.
Tier 1 - (1) DeAndre Hopkins, (2) Tyreek Hill, (3) Chris Godwin, (4) Michael Thomas
Nuk and Tyreek get the edge for long term QB stability, Godwin and MT some QB questions but their talent is elite.
Tier 2 - (5) DJ Moore, (6) Amari Cooper, (7) Courtland Sutton, (8) Tee Higgins, (9) Laviska Shenault, (10) Davante Adams, (11) Kenny Golladay, (12) Keenan Allen, (13) Odell Beckham Jr.
Obviously Tier2 starts some rookies, this is where I'd view early 1st round value. In a startup, I'd be very uncomfortable with anyone here as my WR1 other than Moore. Long term outlook has them in their prime right now, but could be on the downswing. All have QB questions as well. I'd be looking to trade down here or go RB. As of now, this tier has my 2 favorite redraft WR's to grab though. Golladay and OBJ. I don't play redraft anymore though.
Tier 3 - (14) Bryan Edwards, (15) Jalen Reagor, (16) CeeDee Lamb, (17) AJ Brown, (18) DK Metcalf, (19) Deebo Samuel, (20) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (21) Stefon Diggs, (22) Mike Evans, (23) Jerry Jeudy, (24) Cooper Kupp, (25) Adam Thielen DND, (26) Julio Jones DND, (27) Allen Robinson, (28) Tyler Lockett, (29) DJ Chark
I don't see much difference between Tier2 and Tier3 other than ceiling. These guys are a little safer than Tier2 and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them are top10 scorers. The rookies in my rankings would be in the #7-#12 range. Again there's some guys I'd be uncomfortable with as my #1, but this should allow me to grab maybe 2 of these if I have my RB's set already. Basically this is just a tier where I favor the youth over the ~27 year old WR
Tier 4 - (30) Michael Gallup, (31) Preston Williams, (32) AJ Green DND, (33) Robert Woods DND, (34) Terry McLaurin, (35) Tyler Boyd, (36) Calvin Ridley, (37) Gabriel Davis, (38) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (39) Christian Kirk, (40) Jarvis Landry, (41) TY Hilton DND, (42) Denzel Mims, (43) Tyler Johnson, (44) Darius Slayton, (45) Marquise Brown, (46) N'keal Harry
Got some riskier youth with Gallup, Unicorn, McLaurin, Ridley, Kirk, and rookies but you'll have to take a stance on one of them I feel and it almost has to pan out. I prefer Gallup and Unicorn obviously as those are my guys since their respective classes. Gallup was my #1 WR when he came out, Preston was my #1 WR when he came out, just based on talent. Rookie range of #13-#18. Most guys in this tier, their owners will want more than an early 2nd to grab them I imagine. Could also see some of these guys creep into top10 if things break perfectly for them.
Tier 5 - (47) Curtis Samuel, (48) Devante Parker, (49) Julien Edelman DND, (50) Quintez Cephus, (51) Collin Johnson, (52) Corey Davis, (53) Sterling Shepard, (54) Antonio Gibson, (55) Justin Jefferson, (56) Brandin Cooks DND, (57) Hunter Renfrow, (58) Henry Ruggs, (59) Mike Williams, (60) Diontae Johnson, (61) Mecole Hardman, (62) Emmanuel Sanders DND
Role players with good ceilings to potentially be a WR2 in fantasy. I think that classifies this tier pretty well. Ceiling probably isn't there so they get downgraded a bit over higher ceiling guys. I imagine I'm low on most of these guys. Screaming value in re-draft though, Samuel, Edelman, Shepard, Cooks, Sanders. Rookie range of #18-#28
Tier 6 - (63) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (64) Kelvin Harmon, (65) Larry Fitzgerald DND, (66) Robby Anderson DND, (67) Parris Campbell, (68) Miles Boykin, (69) Brandin Aiyuk, (70) Lynn Bowden Jr., (71) John Brown DND, (72) Josh Reynolds, (73) James Washington, (74) Quincy Enunwa, (75) Andy Isabella, (76) Michael Pittman, (77) Isaiah Hodgins, (78) Jalen Hurd,
Tier5 and Tier6 could have been combined but that was too large so I separated based on perceived floor. Same deal as the ones above that could end up being WR2's, much lower floor though.
Tier 7 - (79) JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (80) Antonio Brown DND, (81) Marvin Jones DND, (82) Alshon Jeffery DND, (83) Jamison Crowder DND, (84) Allan Lazard, (85) Anthony Miller, (86) Auden Tate, (87) Tyrell Williams DND
Bad role players, all replaceable assets or injury risks, pretty much all DND's
Tier 8 - (88) Hakeem Butler, (89) Tajae Sharpe, (90) Zach Pascal, (91) John Ross, (92) Dede Westbrook, (93) Will Fuller DND, (94) Devin Funchess, (95) Ashton Dulin, (96) Emmanuel Butler, (97) Keke Coutee, (98) Sammy Watkins DND, (99) Tre'Quan Smith, (100) Duke Williams
Upside guys that shouldn't cost anything, I wouldn't even buy them, I'd wait for a drop and possibly stash at the end of my bench.
****I had JuJu as a top dynasty startup pick last year, I think I recognized my error in that just being caught up with his age and his somewhat limited playing style. I now have Godwin as my controversial high guy, but he's more versatile than JuJu is and I think I've corrected that mistake in my head. Guys with limited playing ability or roles are a little more conservative. AJ Brown for example. Most of his damage came out of the slot, similar to JuJu's first 2 years. I'm not ranking him aggressively even though I love the player.
After typing it all up, values that I see, or potential buys at their price in this: Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Hunter Renfrow, John Brown.
This list only goes through my top40 rookies, I have another ~12 WR's that are not a part of this list but if they aren't on here I don't view them worthy of being drafted anyways. This is a top100 WR list and after I click "submit reply" I'm sure I'll have forgotten a name or doubled up on a number (or completely forgot one), so someone point it to me and I'll adjust.
Tier 1 - (1) DeAndre Hopkins, (2) Tyreek Hill, (3) Chris Godwin, (4) Michael Thomas
Nuk and Tyreek get the edge for long term QB stability, Godwin and MT some QB questions but their talent is elite.
Tier 2 - (5) DJ Moore, (6) Amari Cooper, (7) Courtland Sutton, (8) Tee Higgins, (9) Laviska Shenault, (10) Davante Adams, (11) Kenny Golladay, (12) Keenan Allen, (13) Odell Beckham Jr.
Obviously Tier2 starts some rookies, this is where I'd view early 1st round value. In a startup, I'd be very uncomfortable with anyone here as my WR1 other than Moore. Long term outlook has them in their prime right now, but could be on the downswing. All have QB questions as well. I'd be looking to trade down here or go RB. As of now, this tier has my 2 favorite redraft WR's to grab though. Golladay and OBJ. I don't play redraft anymore though.
Tier 3 - (14) Bryan Edwards, (15) Jalen Reagor, (16) CeeDee Lamb, (17) AJ Brown, (18) DK Metcalf, (19) Deebo Samuel, (20) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (21) Stefon Diggs, (22) Mike Evans, (23) Jerry Jeudy, (24) Cooper Kupp, (25) Adam Thielen DND, (26) Julio Jones DND, (27) Allen Robinson, (28) Tyler Lockett, (29) DJ Chark
I don't see much difference between Tier2 and Tier3 other than ceiling. These guys are a little safer than Tier2 and I wouldn't be surprised if any of them are top10 scorers. The rookies in my rankings would be in the #7-#12 range. Again there's some guys I'd be uncomfortable with as my #1, but this should allow me to grab maybe 2 of these if I have my RB's set already. Basically this is just a tier where I favor the youth over the ~27 year old WR
Tier 4 - (30) Michael Gallup, (31) Preston Williams, (32) AJ Green DND, (33) Robert Woods DND, (34) Terry McLaurin, (35) Tyler Boyd, (36) Calvin Ridley, (37) Gabriel Davis, (38) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (39) Christian Kirk, (40) Jarvis Landry, (41) TY Hilton DND, (42) Denzel Mims, (43) Tyler Johnson, (44) Darius Slayton, (45) Marquise Brown, (46) N'keal Harry
Got some riskier youth with Gallup, Unicorn, McLaurin, Ridley, Kirk, and rookies but you'll have to take a stance on one of them I feel and it almost has to pan out. I prefer Gallup and Unicorn obviously as those are my guys since their respective classes. Gallup was my #1 WR when he came out, Preston was my #1 WR when he came out, just based on talent. Rookie range of #13-#18. Most guys in this tier, their owners will want more than an early 2nd to grab them I imagine. Could also see some of these guys creep into top10 if things break perfectly for them.
Tier 5 - (47) Curtis Samuel, (48) Devante Parker, (49) Julien Edelman DND, (50) Quintez Cephus, (51) Collin Johnson, (52) Corey Davis, (53) Sterling Shepard, (54) Antonio Gibson, (55) Justin Jefferson, (56) Brandin Cooks DND, (57) Hunter Renfrow, (58) Henry Ruggs, (59) Mike Williams, (60) Diontae Johnson, (61) Mecole Hardman, (62) Emmanuel Sanders DND
Role players with good ceilings to potentially be a WR2 in fantasy. I think that classifies this tier pretty well. Ceiling probably isn't there so they get downgraded a bit over higher ceiling guys. I imagine I'm low on most of these guys. Screaming value in re-draft though, Samuel, Edelman, Shepard, Cooks, Sanders. Rookie range of #18-#28
Tier 6 - (63) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (64) Kelvin Harmon, (65) Larry Fitzgerald DND, (66) Robby Anderson DND, (67) Parris Campbell, (68) Miles Boykin, (69) Brandin Aiyuk, (70) Lynn Bowden Jr., (71) John Brown DND, (72) Josh Reynolds, (73) James Washington, (74) Quincy Enunwa, (75) Andy Isabella, (76) Michael Pittman, (77) Isaiah Hodgins, (78) Jalen Hurd,
Tier5 and Tier6 could have been combined but that was too large so I separated based on perceived floor. Same deal as the ones above that could end up being WR2's, much lower floor though.
Tier 7 - (79) JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (80) Antonio Brown DND, (81) Marvin Jones DND, (82) Alshon Jeffery DND, (83) Jamison Crowder DND, (84) Allan Lazard, (85) Anthony Miller, (86) Auden Tate, (87) Tyrell Williams DND
Bad role players, all replaceable assets or injury risks, pretty much all DND's
Tier 8 - (88) Hakeem Butler, (89) Tajae Sharpe, (90) Zach Pascal, (91) John Ross, (92) Dede Westbrook, (93) Will Fuller DND, (94) Devin Funchess, (95) Ashton Dulin, (96) Emmanuel Butler, (97) Keke Coutee, (98) Sammy Watkins DND, (99) Tre'Quan Smith, (100) Duke Williams
Upside guys that shouldn't cost anything, I wouldn't even buy them, I'd wait for a drop and possibly stash at the end of my bench.
****I had JuJu as a top dynasty startup pick last year, I think I recognized my error in that just being caught up with his age and his somewhat limited playing style. I now have Godwin as my controversial high guy, but he's more versatile than JuJu is and I think I've corrected that mistake in my head. Guys with limited playing ability or roles are a little more conservative. AJ Brown for example. Most of his damage came out of the slot, similar to JuJu's first 2 years. I'm not ranking him aggressively even though I love the player.
After typing it all up, values that I see, or potential buys at their price in this: Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Hunter Renfrow, John Brown.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Especially considering how he underachieved in college for all you stat heads
Before you blame his QB, Edwards played four years. Also, if he is so good you have to ask why he played 4 years in college. For me that throws up a flag most of the time, but not always. In Edward's case it does because he never really excelled in college in any of his 4 years.
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