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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

It's him or Mixon for me.

 

I don't understand how this holds true for some

Henderson sits the first 5 weeks of the season, rumored to be because he needs to grasp the blocking scheme/playbook

He gets 2 carries, and looks great on those 2 carries 

The following week, we are expecting him to get many more carries, which would presumably lead to looking more great and better numbers. 

 

How does a guy who is rumored to be struggling with the plays go from 2 carries to "blow up candidate" level of carries? I like him, but I'm not as confident that hes just given more plays. 

That being said I have him penciled in ahead of Mixon because Mixon has been bad

He's more of a desperate play than a confident play.  I mentioned 10-12 carries only because Gurley is banged up.  He could just as easily get 4 - 6 carries and John Kelly get 4 - 6 carries also.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

It's him or Mixon for me.

 

I don't understand how this holds true for some

Henderson sits the first 5 weeks of the season, rumored to be because he needs to grasp the blocking scheme/playbook

He gets 2 carries, and looks great on those 2 carries 

The following week, we are expecting him to get many more carries, which would presumably lead to looking more great and better numbers. 

 

How does a guy who is rumored to be struggling with the plays go from 2 carries to "blow up candidate" level of carries? I like him, but I'm not as confident that hes just given more plays. 

That being said I have him penciled in ahead of Mixon because Mixon has been bad

He had 6 carries and two targets. In a game they struggled. Not a ton but more than 2. They only ran 50 plays.

Edited by barackdhouse
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28 minutes ago, C-Bound said:

No brown today. Crazily thinking about pulling mclaurin for him

I’m in the same boat. 

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There's a pretty low floor if Gurley is totally healthy and the game comes down to the wire, but pretty good upside if Gurley is less than 100% and the game gets out of hand early.  I'm putting him in my flex with an anticipated 63 yards and 0.5 TDs.

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46 minutes ago, Markus P Dub said:

screw it; putting him in over Tate in the flex

Seems like a pretty even split. Ironically he's being pulled on passing downs. 

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The O line is a disaster.  Even against a bad front 7 we couldn’t do much.  

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Quote

Darrell Henderson rushed 11 times for 31 yards in the Rams' Week 7 win over the Falcons, adding an eight-yard reception.

Aside from back-to-back nine- and eight-yard runs to begin the third quarter, Henderson, along with Todd Gurley, had trouble finding running room against the Falcons' soft defense. It was not an overly impressive day for the Rams' entire offense, though the Falcons were much, much worse. With Malcolm Brown (ankle) having a shot at returning for Week 8, it's possible Henderson's FLEX value won't extend beyond today. Henderson has appeared to have the most juice of any Rams runner the past two weeks.

Oct 20, 2019, 6:17 PM ET

 

 

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Well I thought he looked really good in limited action two weeks in a row. If Brown sits I'm probably starting him again in a couple spots. Hoping to land Ty Johnson tonight.

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4 hours ago, ahartig said:

Its either Darrell or Smallwood for me.... leaning Darrell

That's the correct lean IMO.

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K. Allen injury may force me to start Henderson.

Just looked at all of the Cinci box scores and...wow...do they get run on. The matchup is there without a doubt.

In addition, if you look closely, several secondary running options have gotten into the act significantly such as:

* C. Edmonds: 8-68-1, 3-18 (DJ went off too).

* J. Samuel: 10-26-1; 8-57 (Conner got his as well).

* R. Mostert: 13-83, 3-68-1; J. Wilson: 10-34-2

The key state in the box scores above and beyond the above is the number of ATTEMPTS opposing teams are generating.

Do we really believe that Gurley is going to get 25 carries? If LAR get up big, I can't imagine they keep pounding Gurley over and over. They've taken their foot off the gas pedal with him when games are competitive.

And no Malcom Brown either.

Most projections I see have Henderson getting 7-8 carries. I'm thinking 12-15 with potential for 2-4 receptions as well. All this dude needs to do is break one with one touch and he exceeds his projection.

I'm staring at the likes of D. Hamilton, Z. Pascal, A. Erickson, and T. Ginn as potential replacements for K. Allen. Thinking Henderson may have more upside than any option on waivers right now.

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One of my two favorite off-the-bench upside plays this week. Kenny Stills is the other one.

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#### it. He's in my lineup.

13 hours ago, Chaka said:

One of my two favorite off-the-bench upside plays this week. Kenny Stills is the other one.

Got both of them rolling this week.  Fantasy God's rarely reward me for stuff like this, but I sincerely believe these two have more week winning potential than the guys I'm benching.

Does fortune truly favor the bold? Imma find out if I'm bold or delusional around 4:30 pm PDT tomorrow.

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Fantasy fallout: Signs of life for David Montgomery, rookie RBs

Excerpt:

Quote

Henderson: The reason for Henderson’s increased workload is obvious. After he played just two snaps in the first five games, Henderson has played 68 snaps in the past three because Malcolm Brown suffered an ankle injury.

But the third-round pick from Memphis has made the most of them, with 28 carries for 119 yards and four catches for 37 yards.

Brown could be back as soon as Week 10, so Lindsey Thiry said it remains uncertain how much playing time Henderson will get moving forward. “But it appears Rams coach Sean McVay will continue to find reps for the rookie," Thiry said, "who he said was ‘going to be a really good player for us’ after his performance against the Falcons in Week 7."

“You saw some physical runs,” McVay said. “You [already] knew that he had the speed and the athleticism to catch the ball out of the backfield.”

 

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14 minutes ago, ahartig said:

Interesting read:

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/11/05/rams-running-back-fantasy-gurley-henderson/

looks like Malcolm is definitely back this week, making the rams backfield a hot mess IMO.  I may need to drop Darrell due to the upcoming bypocalypse.... anyone holding?

I am. But I'm past most of my byes so I think I can afford to. It's a mess meaning we don't know what to expect.

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If I were to guess I think Henderson pretty much disappears unless Gurley or Malcolm gets dinged again. I don't think he showed enough to earn anything over Malcolm.

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11 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

If I were to guess I think Henderson pretty much disappears unless Gurley or Malcolm gets dinged again. I don't think he showed enough to earn anything over Malcolm.

McVay said Monday that Brown is on track to return against Pittsburgh after missing two games with an ankle injury, and Henderson has gained enough experience to be a factor in the backfield. He called it a “positive problem” to have, but dividing the workload is no easy task.

He was asked how the share of touches will play out in Week 10, and he didn’t exactly have an answer.

“That’s something that, number one you say, ‘OK, is Malcolm part of that equation? Then what does our game plan look like specific to how we want to try to run the football or use our backs against Pittsburgh this week?’” McVay said. “This is really one of the first times that you say, ‘OK, all three are up,’ because now Darrell’s gotten himself enough experience that you do have a confidence in finding a role and want to get him into a rhythm. Earlier on, it was kind of really just a good spell between Todd and Malcolm. Then with both of those guys having missed games, that was what opened up the doors for Darrell to be able to step in and us to continue to gain some confidence in his ability to play and do some things. It’s a positive problem, but I think that would be something that I could probably be better equipped to answer after the game Sunday when you see what our game plan is.”

Unless McVay is full of crap, which he may very well be, Henderson is in the mix.

Edited by ahartig

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54 minutes ago, ahartig said:

Interesting read:

https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2019/11/05/rams-running-back-fantasy-gurley-henderson/

looks like Malcolm is definitely back this week, making the rams backfield a hot mess IMO.  I may need to drop Darrell due to the upcoming bypocalypse.... anyone holding?

Bummer. This is going to be a tough hold.

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Quote

Rams placed RB Darrell Henderson (ankle) on injured reserve.

Henderson will finish his rookie campaign with 147 yards and zero touchdowns on just 39 carries (3.8 YPC). It was a lost season for the 2019 third-rounder, especially since he only added a 4-37-0 line as a receiver. Those who drafted Henderson in the single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts heading into the season were banking on Todd Gurley missing time, but Gurley played 15-of-16 games. Henderson still has breakout potential, although that remains completely tied to the future of Gurley. The Rams will need to eat a ton of dead money to move on from the former All-Pro back, but rumors have circled that that's at least on the table. Henderson would be a handcuff in 2020 if Gurley stays in Los Angeles.

SOURCE: Rams on Twitter

Dec 28, 2019, 3:27 PM ET

 

 

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

 

 The Rams will need to eat a ton of dead money to move on from the former All-Pro back, but rumors have circled that that's at least on the table.

I find that hard to believe, but if it happens then Henderson has no excuses if he doesn't produce in 2020. 2019 was disappointing but long term I like Henderson as a valuable dynasty asset. It's interesting how people bail on rookies so quickly. His 2019 was extremely disappointing and has lost value from where many took him last year, but not time to bail yet 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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8 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

2019 was disappointing but long term I like Henderson as a valuable dynasty asset. It's interesting how people bail on rookies so quickly. His 2019 was extremely disappointing and has lost value from where many took him last year, but not time to bail yet 

You can't hold it against him that he didn't play much backing up Gurley. The expectations of immediate production cause some disappointments, but the chance of this being a long play were obvious. Silver lining is he looked good when he actually got the ball, so there's that.

His main obstacle Gurley leaving would be great, but I don't know about that. Seems unlikely. 

Edited by cloppbeast
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10 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

You can't hold it against him that he didn't play much backing up Gurley. The expectations of immediate production cause some disappointments, but the chance of this being a long play were obvious. Silver lining is he looked good when he actually got the ball, so there's that.

His main obstacle Gurley leaving would be great, but I don't know about that. Seems unlikely. 

You can’t hold it against him? I own him and will hold but it was ugly.

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1 minute ago, voiceofunreason said:

You can’t hold it against him? I own him and will hold but it was ugly.

A voiceofreason is to not sell players you believed in last year, after just one season, unless you get as good or better return (barring injury or off-the-field issues).

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13 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

You can’t hold it against him? I own him and will hold but it was ugly.

Well you're holding so you're not so disappointed. 

Would you take a 2nd for him?

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3 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Well you're holding so you're not so disappointed. 

Would you take a 2nd for him?

Why would he take a 2nd after one season of being a backup when he probably gave a 1st and there are no indications, whether off the field or otherwise, that he isn't what we thought he was?  That's a guppy move IMO.  

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13 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Why would he take a 2nd after one season of being a backup when he probably gave a 1st and there are no indications, whether off the field or otherwise, that he isn't what we thought he was?  That's a guppy move IMO.  

Well he really wasn't worth a 1st in the first place, that's the main reason.

Edited by cloppbeast
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26 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Well he really wasn't worth a 1st in the first place, that's the main reason.

True or not, I stand by what I said about him two posts above.

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Just now, JohnnyU said:

True or not, I stand by what I said about him two posts above.

In that case, you're falling victim to some sort of fallacy. Sunk cost maybe.

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

In that case, you're falling victim to some sort of fallacy. Sunk cost maybe.

That’s the question. Is he not what we thought last summer or is he still waiting to explode next year?

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4 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

That’s the question. Is he not what we thought last summer or is he still waiting to explode next year?

this......or the year after that.  Dynasty doesn't have to be what he's done in two years if you believe in the reasons you drafted him in the first place.  Opportunity is huge.

Edited by JohnnyU

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22 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

if you believe in the reasons you drafted him in the first place.  Opportunity is huge.

Yes, opportunity is huge; but sounds like you're making my point though. What turned out to be an imagined one for Henderson is why people made him a mid-1st rookie pick. Whence upon learning that his opportunity will not be forthcoming, an owner should adjust. 

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People really drafted Henderson based off opportunity? I think most drafted him because of his talent. Golden rule when drafting rookies in dynasty leagues - draft talent before opportunity.

 

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1 minute ago, Balco said:

People really drafted Henderson based off opportunity? I think most drafted him because of his talent. Golden rule when drafting rookies in dynasty leagues - draft talent before opportunity.

go look at the beginning of the thread.

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44 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Yes, opportunity is huge; but sounds like you're making my point though. What turned out to be an imagined one for Henderson is why people made him a mid-1st rookie pick. Whence upon learning that his opportunity will not be forthcoming, an owner should adjust. 

patience grasshopper, patience. 

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4 minutes ago, Balco said:

People really drafted Henderson based off opportunity? I think most drafted him because of his talent. Golden rule when drafting rookies in dynasty leagues - draft talent before opportunity.

 

Based on the typical career window for NFL RBs, I devalue RB talent if there is an insurmountable roadblock. I don't think that is the case on the Rams despite how 2019 turned out. Missing the playoffs by a single game has to make the Rams second guess a strategy reliant on limiting Gurley early in the season and coasting. I'd take Henderson over again at 1.5 even with 20/20 hindsight. Hopefully he builds strength over the off-season because the tackle he was injured on happens on every NFL carry.

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2 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

Based on the typical career window for NFL RBs, I devalue RB talent if there is an insurmountable roadblock. I don't think that is the case on the Rams despite how 2019 turned out. Missing the playoffs by a single game has to make the Rams second guess a strategy reliant on limiting Gurley early in the season and coasting. I'd take Henderson over again at 1.5 even with 20/20 hindsight. Hopefully he builds strength over the off-season because the tackle he was injured on happens on every NFL carry.

Not in 2020 you wouldn't :)

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I don’t even know if there is such a thing at running back or receiver as an insurmountable roadblock. Injuries are so common, as are sudden ineffectiveness and holdouts. Look at Austin Ekeler for example. I buy that at QB but the NFL is just so short term. Can’t really think of a recent player at running back or receiver that hasn’t missed time.

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On 12/29/2019 at 1:22 PM, JohnnyU said:

Why would he take a 2nd after one season of being a backup when he probably gave a 1st and there are no indications, whether off the field or otherwise, that he isn't what we thought he was?  That's a guppy move IMO.  

Wow it seems like I'm coming after you today, but I'm really not I swear :D

I disagree here - he didn't look much the part at all, and in a loaded draft class I think I'd be happy to re-invest in something else.  The guppy move is holding on to a guy you paid a 1st for when "all you're getting" is a 2nd.  That's sunk cost fallacy at work.  Think back to the 2019 draft, people were dying to give away picks for 2020 picks, and now being offered that chance you're saying you wouldn't take it?  I own just one share and would flip him instantly for the  2020 #19 or #20 I paid for him.

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10 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Wow it seems like I'm coming after you today, but I'm really not I swear :D

I disagree here - he didn't look much the part at all, and in a loaded draft class I think I'd be happy to re-invest in something else.  The guppy move is holding on to a guy you paid a 1st for when "all you're getting" is a 2nd.  That's sunk cost fallacy at work.  Think back to the 2019 draft, people were dying to give away picks for 2020 picks, and now being offered that chance you're saying you wouldn't take it?  I own just one share and would flip him instantly for the  2020 #19 or #20 I paid for him.

That's ridiculous after just one season as a backup.  Also, I saw a game this year where he looked great.  The burst was eye opening.  I think I will give it more than one season as a backup thank you very much.    Having said that, I did trade Gurley and Henderson in one league for Travis Etienne.

ETA:  It wasn't the 1.2, it was Etienne who I traded for in a devy league.

Edited by JohnnyU

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