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BobbyLayne

What do you need on MNF

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Down 40. I have Cam, Brees, CMC. He has Kamara and Lutz (in ppr). So a modest night from Kamara and good performances by my guys. All my best players are flopping so not feeling great 

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Favorite League -  Brees and Ingram under 30.02 PPR points (6 per td, -1 per INT, with bonus for length)    5-10% chance.  :( :( :( :no: 

Dynasty PPR -   Down 13.54,  They have Kamara and Lutz,  I have Newton, McCaffrey, MT -  (25-30% chance) :no:

Standard - Need 11.85 from Kamara. 50/50% :suds:

 

Not a good semi finals for me.  Allen, Thielen, Gronk, Gostikowski combined for about 12 points.  Mix in Chubbs 10 and it was just an awful week.

Good Luck

Edited by Gottabesweet

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McCaffery +31 versus Newton and DJ Moore  (.5 ppr, strange yardage - qb +3 at 250 combine dyards and +1 each addl 25, -1 int; rb/wr = +1 at 60/80/100 then +1 each addl 15 yards, .5 ppr)

other league - 

+51 versus versus Newton, DJ Moore and Lutz - standard scoring with 1 ppr, -2 int.  

 

So basically a McCaffery show with not too much Newton and Moore and I will win both.  If McCaffery lays an egg while Newton and Moore go nuts I could lose both.  Put it this way, if I was on the other side of the equation I would think I had a decent chance in both. 

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6 minutes ago, eNdblu said:

Down 14 

I have Kamara and Lutz, he has CMC. The LAR DST totally screwed me last night :(

defenses are probably the hardest to predict, followed by kickers and TEs.  

Edited by JohnnyU

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33 minutes ago, jmo87usc said:

Up 50 with no one left.

He has Kamara and Mike Thomas.  So I need a strong drink for MNF.

Say a prayer and go to bed early.

.5ppr up 40 and he has:

Cam (proj 30) & Kamara (19)

vs my

CMC (20) & Saints D (7)

So I should be good. Ds can get in negative in this league pretty easily, so a CAR explosion would be bad about my only problem. I do like Cam turnovers being a 4 point swing though. :)

This guy really screwed himself though. I'm lucky to be in this position. Played Ebron in flex (has Kelce at TE) over Jeffrey, Ingram, Foster & Pettis. Plus, benched Watson for Cam.

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Down 10.78 with Cam/DJ Moore/Lutz to go versus his M.Thomas.  

Normally i'd feel pretty good about that, but my team hasn't scored a single TD yet this week so i'm a little snakebit.  Thankfully my opponent sucked almost as bad.   

8 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

I need this game to be 7-3 at the final. 🙄

As long as the 3 is a Lutz FG and the 7 comes from an 80 yard TD from Cam to DJ Moore I'll allow it.  

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15 minutes ago, Crash Davis said:

As long as the 3 is a Lutz FG and the 7 comes from an 80 yard TD from Cam to DJ Moore I'll allow it.  

Deals have been made. Fantasy Gods, please make it so.🙏 😂

 

15 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

To get everyone back together and draft a new team.

LOL. SAME!!! My big money local league has kicked me right in the junk this year. Its a 14 team, overall points, short bench league where you must carry a certain amount of players at each position. Free agency is held on wed nights and is an auction style. However much money a player goes for, goes to the final prize pool and after week 13, teams can sell players to each other for a "playoff rush". If you're losing its a way to recoup some of your losses. 1/2/3 pay out at the end. I was floundering in 8th and sold Kelce/Kamara for almost 700(nobody else worth buying). Paid for my buy in and my free agent moves over the year so i am pretty much even. I was decimated by injuries all year. Made some sneaky cheap moves that first two weeks and my replacement team has actually given me hope! Its a basically brand new team, playing the matchups, and a lot of fun for what i thought was a lost season. I've actually moved into 3rd by 2 points for(4th has brees to play still), but i was 60 points out of third before this week and 100 out before week 14 😮. 2nd is out of reach barring a miracle over the next two weeks, but third is surprisingly reachable. 

Edited by jerseys finest

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18 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I need 10+ from Ingram or I am done for the year. Should have started Patrick over J. Cook... Thanks Allen for the 0

Assuming PPR you're good pretty much a guarantee.

Allen injury killed me too.

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Up by 58 pts in a standard league - I'm done and opponent's got CMC.   On to the finals!

PPR league - I'm down by 4 pts (despite Allen's bagel) with Kamara to go, opponent is done.  On to the finals? 

Standard league - my RB trio of Barkley/Chubb/Fournette got destroyed by Coleman/Cook/Henry.  On to the consolation bracket!

Edited by wlwiles

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

defenses are probably the hardest to predict, followed by kickers and TEs.  

Ya :( I thought for sure that the LAR DST was the safer play over BAL. Ugh. Got a hill to climb tonight. Hill, Gronk, and Gordon certainly didn't do me any favours either.

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Two leagues, all saints

League 1:  I'm up 1 point with Brees, Ingram.  He's got Curtis Samuel.  Just need Brees/Ingram to show up it seems.

League 2:  Down 61 points with Brees/Ingram/Lutz. 

Fingers crossed

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

defenses are probably the hardest to predict, followed by kickers and TEs.  

  1. Kickers by a mile
  2. Tight ends
  3. DSTs

Kickers are so difficult because their stats can be completely unrelated to their performance. I had Maher yesterday and he didn't even get to attempt a single FG/XP. On another team I have Lutz, who is the king of the "offense scores 42 and he only gets you 6" scenario. Over a season there are some things you can look to, but in a spot start it's almost impossible to predict.

Elite TEs are more predictable, but those aren't the ones who present you with start/sit dilemmas. When you get down to the "Burton vs. Njoku" debate, it's a total crapshoot

With defenses, there are a few signals you can look to that have a fair amount of predictability: home vs. road, over/under, track record of sacks/INTs (the two stickiest D stats), etc. Of course, there are always times where the numbers suggest one thing it and blows up in your face, a la LAR last night, but that's always a possibility in fantasy.

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Good luck, all, hope you get what you need!

I need 32 points or more from Brees and CMC combined in a 2/3rd pt. PPR.

Seems doable, but also has the potential to easily fall out of reach given a stout NO D and Brees's occasionally putting up some stinkers (see earlier games v NYG, MIN, and a few weeks ago v DAL).

Pins and needles, boys. Pins and needles.

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Up 29 points (non PPR, very close to Standard scoring) with my Kamara going against his Michael Thomas + Will Lutz.

In our league, kickers rarely break 10-12 points, and a 20-point game for a WR is considered outstanding. Basically, I need all of Kamara, Thomas, and Lutz to stay around their league averages -- or else for his two to score low OR else for Kamara to go nuts.

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Down .1 

Yes one tenth of a point. I need Ian Thomas to catch a ball for positive yards and not fumble. 

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I need McCaffrey and M.Thomas to score under 26 in standard. Yahoo gives me a 46% chance, that seems optimistic to me, though they had less than that in week 11 when i last faced this team.

To further illustrate how random the fantasy playoffs are, the team that went undefeated in the regular season in my league, with a starting lineup of:

QB-Luck

RB-Barkley, Lindsay

WR-Hill, Thielen, JuJu

TE-Kelce

Flex-White

K-Myers

D-Bears

That team lost by over 100 points. My theory is that making the fantasy playoffs is a skill, winning in them is luck. If I am able to eek out a win, I'll be glad I don't have to face this team next week.

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42 minutes ago, zftcg said:
  1. Kickers by a mile
  2. Tight ends
  3. DSTs

Have had Gould as my starter most of the year. Saw FBG had Parkey rated higher playing the Pack and thought to myself sure makes sense. Gould has 15 points on my bench. Might be the difference in championship or not. 😭

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Need McCaffrey and Thomas to rack up less than 41.02 points in Standard scoring.

Feeling pretty good about my prospects.

(FYI, I benched Cam Newton for Josh Allen this week.)

Edited by Lascelle

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Kamara to outscore Ingram by 25 in PPR 

D J moore to get 23 in standard (he has nobody left), but big bonuses for longer TDs.

 

Welp, its been a fun 2018.

Edited by Ned Ryerson

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:
  1. Kickers by a mile
  2. Tight ends
  3. DSTs

Kickers are so difficult because their stats can be completely unrelated to their performance. I had Maher yesterday and he didn't even get to attempt a single FG/XP. On another team I have Lutz, who is the king of the "offense scores 42 and he only gets you 6" scenario.

:rolleyes:

34 straight games with at least one FG.

I didn’t own him in his rookie year when he had three 0 FG games but he’s been great the last two years (K5 & K2.)

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43 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Have had Gould as my starter most of the year. Saw FBG had Parkey rated higher playing the Pack and thought to myself sure makes sense. Gould has 15 points on my bench. Might be the difference in championship or not. 😭

I actually have a policy of refusing to stream kickers. Too much agita. I pick one, ride him for a few weeks, and then look at the list of top-performing kickers and go with someone who's rated higher. I think YTD performance, while far from perfect, is about the best criterion out there for predicting future performance. Beyond that, I also look at strength of offense, dome vs. outdoor, accuracy, and 50+ attempts (if they're willing to let him try, that's a good sign). But mostly I just try to find a guy I'm comfortable with and hold on as long as I can.

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4 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

:rolleyes:

34 straight games with at least one FG.

I didn’t own him in his rookie year when he had three 0 FG games but he’s been great the last two years (K5 & K2.)

Ix-nay on entioning-may the eak-stray! I need a big game from him tonight! :rant:

(I actually didn't know that. I've definitely seen it happen with Ks on a strong offense; just assumed it had with Lutz. I was probably thinking of the Rams game, where he had 6 XPs and tacked on a 4th quarter FG)

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22 minutes ago, zftcg said:

I actually have a policy of refusing to stream kickers. Too much agita. I pick one, ride him for a few weeks, and then look at the list of top-performing kickers and go with someone who's rated higher. I think YTD performance, while far from perfect, is about the best criterion out there for predicting future performance. Beyond that, I also look at strength of offense, dome vs. outdoor, accuracy, and 50+ attempts (if they're willing to let him try, that's a good sign). But mostly I just try to find a guy I'm comfortable with and hold on as long as I can.

I never should have changed him. Usually if I have been using a kicker for most of the year, and there is someone else closely rated I just stick with the guy I have. Got too cute. And I only switch kickers mid season if mine is severely underperforming  if he’s top 10 I usually just stick with him  

I 100% agree with you on the season long aspect. That’s generally what I look at, too. 

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