TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Moon is in that 11-15 category for sure...along with Aikman, Warner & Kelly.
And I know I'm a Falcon fan...but the next 4 years could see Ryan dramatically improve his standing on this list.
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Top 10 QB's of All Time (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZenoRazon
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And I know I'm a Falcon fan...but the next 4 years could see Ryan dramatically improve his standing on this list.
Hard to totally leave a two time SB champ, who is also in the top 10 all time in TD/YARDS. off a top 20 list.
Hell, number 20???
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
The last part is what I am curious about in people's rankings of players (as a general talking point). Let's say Ryan goes out and averages 4,000 passing yards a year over the next five years. Twelve players hit that amount this year, so its not exactly a huge milestone like it used to be. With some other QBs set to retire soon, Ryan could jump into the Top 5 all time in passing yards with another 20,000 yards. If the Falcons don't do much in that time (say a .500 record over those 5 seasons), should Ryan's stock go way up just based on him compiling more yards on a so-so team?
dhockster
Footballguy
Other than the super bowl seasons (which were due as much to the defense as it was to Eli), Eli has won zero playoff games. His record as a QB is 116-114, 2 games over .500. To me, his most amazing feat is missing 0 games to injury over his 15 seasons. Thus he has compiled a lot of passing stats.
I stand by my assessment that he was never a top 5 QB in any season. He only had a QB rating ranking in the top ten once (his ranking was 7th) in his 15 seasons. I will admit that as an Eagles fan I have a bias against Eli as I have watched the Giants go 4-17 in the last 21 games that Eli has started against the Eagles. I relish the fact that he could be back in 2019 for 2 more games against the Eagles. There is a good chance that the Eagles win those games because Eli is so mediocre.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
No. His MVP season was great, but an outlier. Aside from that season, he has never been anything more than a good QB.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Yeah...you know I think the bar needs to change for sure. And to your point, if the Falcons are mediocre during that time, it's going to count against him.
That said, it's one thing to average 4000/season...but his average over the last 8 has been 4582. That is actually a pretty significant number and production over that time..
Right now, his career IMO is actually defined by his near misses. The Falcons blew the 2012 NFCCG (they were up at home 17-0 against SF) and obviously SBLI. He played superbly in each game. How different would his legacy be if the deals were closed in those situations? It's a 'what if'...but that's how close he is to being pretty darn clear cut assuming he kept up his level of production the next 4-5 years.
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Tau837
Footballguy
This thread is about top 10 QBs all time, and a few posts have talked about 11-15 or 11-20. IMO it is extremely unlikely that Ryan will ever merit being in that discussion.
However, that is a different discussion than whether or not he could ever merit HOF induction. I don’t think he is there now, but he could certainly get there.
However, that is a different discussion than whether or not he could ever merit HOF induction. I don’t think he is there now, but he could certainly get there.
As long as QB's are talked about I'm cool with whatever. Not much on stay on topic.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
My point with Ryan was that just playing longer doesn't necessarily mean you played at an elite level. So tacking on another 20,000 yards while playing on a mediocre team shouldn't improve people's perception of him. But he will make a run at Top 10 or Top 5 career totals . . . which will get people talking about how good a player he's been.
Frank Gore is another example. Since leaving SFO, Gore has averaged 919/3 running the football with a 3.9 ypc. That really isn't anything special. But adding in those uninspiring rushing yards improved his career ranking in rushing yards from Top 25 to Top 5 all time. Over the past 4 seasons, of RB with at lest 200 carries, Gore ranked 59th in ypc. Yet many people changed their perspective on Gore, and now have him as HOF lock. He's had only one season in the Top 5 in rushing yards and one year in the Top 5 in YFS (both in the same year). How many people in any given year felt Gore was an elite RB and one of the best in the game?
Frank Gore is another example. Since leaving SFO, Gore has averaged 919/3 running the football with a 3.9 ypc. That really isn't anything special. But adding in those uninspiring rushing yards improved his career ranking in rushing yards from Top 25 to Top 5 all time. Over the past 4 seasons, of RB with at lest 200 carries, Gore ranked 59th in ypc. Yet many people changed their perspective on Gore, and now have him as HOF lock. He's had only one season in the Top 5 in rushing yards and one year in the Top 5 in YFS (both in the same year). How many people in any given year felt Gore was an elite RB and one of the best in the game?
In 2006 Gore had 1,695 yards, a 5.4 average and another 485 yards receiving, yep...one of the best in the biz.
Five time pro bowler.
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Put me in the Matt Ryan is super underrated camp., he's been a consistently good QB since he was drafted(11 years ago) and has an MVP season and a Super Bowl appearance, despite being surrounded mostly poor coaches, and while he's had solid weapons, its been far below contemporaries such as Roethlisberger or Rivers, both of whom I think Ryan is better than. Cam Newton is another guy who falls into that category a bit, where he's been good since he was drafted, has 1 incredible season, but he had far less to work with weapon wise, and did a lot of damage as a rusher rather than a passer.
Career stats don't really hold a lot of weight to me in general. They are a useful tool in some cases, but far from an end-all/be-all. Personally, I'd take 5 elite seasons, over 10 good seasons. Its the Terrell Davis over Curtis Martin argument. The Hall of Fame is for the truly special, not the very good, who played forever. To me Gore is a compiler, playing for a long time inflates stats, to make it look like he was an all-time great. Truthfully, there are probably 10 RB's I'd take over him just since 2000. He doesn't register as a HOF conversation for me.
And even in that year, there were arguably 3-4 guys better than Gore.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
So what is an elite level for the 21st century QB?
I think that's really the underlying question regarding how we measure QB's 'status'...other than the obligatory and fairly simplistic 'rings'.
I mean you mentioned Warren Moon. Their careers didn't overlap, but if Moon was #11 or #12 on this list...what about his performance during his career is so much better than Ryan when you try and account for different eras?
No not really, his 5.4 average the best in the NFL. No stat more important for a RB than his average per carry.
I'd very much disagree with that. I mean, if YPC is the most important thing for a RB, they better get started on the Jamaal Charles HOF bust right now. He averaged 5.4 YPC over his career. Is Charles the best running back of the modern era? I doubt anyone would say yes to that, though I'd put Charles ahead of Gore for sure.
Not to derail too much, but you'd really argue 2006 Gore was better than 2006 NFL MVP Tomlinson?
There is no doubt YPC is the key stat in a RB career. Jim Brown, Barry Sanders both over 5 yards a carry. Charles a great RB.
I'd argue that Gore wasn't behind 3/4 others like you said. Give him the ball...5.4...nobody did better than that.
Charles had over 10,000 yards rushing/receiving, 64 TD;s, and that gaudy 5.4 average. That's elite status.
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az_prof
Footballguy
Having watched all these guys play except for Otto Graham, hard to argue with this list. Pretty good list.
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Tau837
Footballguy
OK, so you are talking 'weapons' here. How much do you value offensive lines, and how do you compare those in this discussion? Because I can tell you, Rivers has had awful OLs. How have Ryan's OLs compared?
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Tau837
Footballguy
Moon was 28 years old as an NFL rookie due to racial bias within the league for the QB position, which drove him to the NFL. Despite this, he retired in the top 4 in NFL history in passing completions, passing yards, and passing TDs, and he made 9 Pro Bowls. That is really impressive considering he was shorted by 5-6 seasons in comparison to most NFL QB greats.
Moon was also the greatest African American QB of all time when he was inducted. Not really something Ryan can compete with, but it matters for purposes of Moon's place in NFL history.
Another way to look at it is how they ranked in their careers against their peers.
- Here are their top 10 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last:
Moon (10 seasons): 1 1 3 3 3 5 5 7 7 10
- Ryan (9): 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 9
- Edge: Moon
[*]Ryan has finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times so far. Here are their top 9 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last:
Moon (9): 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 8 9
- Ryan (7): 2 3 5 6 6 9 10
- Edge: Moon
Frankly, it doesn't look particularly comparable at this point, though Ryan obviously isn't done.
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Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
It pains me to say it as I don't like him, but Brady is far, far superior to all of the players mentioned. His season record. His playoff record. His championships. His stats. And he did it with a few teams that didn't have much around him. He was blessed with a great coach which certainly helps, but even when NE loses Brady looks pretty damn good.
The rest I see mentioned are really, really great players. Unitas. Graham. Marino. Montana. etc. etc. But Brady seems to me leaps and bounds beyond those guys not only cause he wins, but because he wins against Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Ben, and others that are really great players themselves.
The rest I see mentioned are really, really great players. Unitas. Graham. Marino. Montana. etc. etc. But Brady seems to me leaps and bounds beyond those guys not only cause he wins, but because he wins against Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Ben, and others that are really great players themselves.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
FYI, Brady has never beaten Brees or Rodgers in the playoffs (although he might have a chance to beat Brees in 2 1/2 weeks) and he had a losing record in the playoffs against Peyton. Just saying...
Moon was great but he had nothing on Russell Wilson as far as best African American QB goes.
Moon had a career comp% of 58.4, Wilson 64.2
Moon a QB rating of 80.9, Wilson 100.3 only Rodgers ahead of that.
Moon had 291/231 TD/INT, Wilson a far superior 196/63...three times more TD's.
And, having seen both many times, Wilson simply the better QB.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Cmon GR the OP didn't mention Manning, Brees, Rodgers v Brady in playoffs; you just added it. Most r well aware Brady had ZERO opportunities to beat Brees and Rodgers in the playoffs primarily because Brees and Rodgers haven't been good enough to get their teams far enuf to play Brady, right? It is all about the QB......
Kind of surprised u r going the playoff QB head to head route as a determining greatness factor but whatever. As for Manning v Brady head to head in playoffs, Manning "lead" his team to an average of 7 1/2 points per game in 2 playoff losses vs Brady (IE manning clearly sucked), while Brady lead his team to 22 1/2 points per game in 3 losses (sometimes the other team is better).
How about a larger sample size of Peytons and Bradys work in the playoffs....
Or is head to head the "main" thing that matters?
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Link to where I said head to head is the main thing or a determining greatness factor?
I will save you time: I did not say that. If that is your interpretation based on my innocuous post, have at it, but I do not say that, because I am not in the habit of sayings things I do not believe.
I will save you time: I did not say that. If that is your interpretation based on my innocuous post, have at it, but I do not say that, because I am not in the habit of sayings things I do not believe.
I'd say weapons are slightly more important than o-line, but both certainly help. I think Rivers had a better o-line early in their careers, but Ryan certainly has the last few years.Ultimately the difference between the two is small to me, so I'm swayed by the MVP(I tend to favor the peak when its close) and the Super Bowl appearance. Also, Rivers has been his own worst enemy at times, trying to hit big plays that aren't there at all. Rivers is more fun to watch, but I don't believe he's better. I'd take both over Roethlisberger.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I get this is 100% opinion and no one is “wrong”. But I’d have to question if someone isn’t high as a kite for choosing Ben and Aikman over Brees.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Right? I feel like Manning retires and is largely considered the GOAT. And then less and less people consider him so and start to rank people not who are active or played after him, but by players who had played before him but are suddenly better than him all time?! It makes no sense to me. I’m young or old depending who you ask (pushing 40) so my experience is limited but Manning is unquestionably the best QB I had ever seen play.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I interpreted it as u seeming to inject playoff head to head into ur reply to a post that didn't mention reference that. But its all good, i know how u feel and u no how i feel so we can let it go (for now). Im shocked at some of the rankings but variety is the spice of life so they say and lets save the ammo for another thread
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bucksoh
Footballguy
Dude, wanna talk AFL opening day 1960 when former Oregon State hurdler Paul Lowe (Charger) ran the kickoff back 105 yards?
Talk to me about Cannonball Butler, Carver Shannon, Cyril Pinder, oh yeah....ya can';t.
Dude, cool this "Don't watch many games....ok" Seen FAR FAR FAR more games than you have, trust me.
Fitzpatrick has started how many games? He's your example, really?
The guy has started 126 games.
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bucksoh
Footballguy
There's alot more but with your football knowledge it's really not even worth discussing with you.
A guy thinking Tom Brady shouldn't be mentioned when it comes to great QB;s has no business talking football at all.
bucksoh
Footballguy
Lol! Tom Brady wouldn't have even played 30 years ago cause he wouldn't have been able to take a pounding. You should probably post less!
Bart Starr 6-1 197
Fran Tarkenton 6-0 190
Joe Montana 6-2 205
Tom Brady 6-4 225
Now think just a little bit slugger,ok?
You probably shouldn't post at all.
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So you realized that if those little guys could take it (from far smaller guys than Brady deals with) then the much bigger Brady could too.
Dude, anyone saying Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers don't belong on an All Time QB list knows all about dementia.
Find anyone who agrees with you, guess what slick.............you won't.
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Tau837
Footballguy
My comment was more about comparing the HOF cases for Ryan and Moon. At the time Moon became eligible, he was by far the best AA QB of all time.
Yes, Wilson may surpass him. I don't think it has happened yet (i.e., if Wilson retired tomorrow without playing another game). You are comparing stats from different eras. It would be better to compare them vs. their peers. I'm not going to take the time to do that, but I think that would favor Moon at this point.
That said, I am a huge fan of Wilson, and I think he is a future HOFer. He may very well surpass Moon and become the greatest AA QB of all time, at least until the next great one surpasses him. That will be interesting to watch.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
First off I am not getting into whether or not Big Ben deserves to be mentioned in the top 10 QBs of all time. I think these lists are dumb but I do take issue with the bolded remark.
The only time this season where I think Ben choked with the game on the line was Denver. He had three 4th quarter comebacks in 2018 and had a couple more where the kicker blew the game winning or game tying FG. And those were very manageable kicks too.
He brought the team back from behind against the Chargers with less than 4 minutes left but the defense let the Chargers get a last second FG. They also had a lead late in the 4th quarter against the Saints and after that lead was blown had the team in FG range when JuJu fumbled the ball. Those weren't on Ben.
His interceptions were up, no denying that, but some of that comes from passing the ball 7,000 times. He had a couple clunker games but overall I thought he played pretty well in 2018.
Tau837
Footballguy
This is off topic, since neither Rivers nor Ryan belongs in a discussion of the top 20 QBs of all time. But I was compelled to respond to this part of your post.
Per PFF, here is how their respective team pass blocking grades ranked in each season since they became NFL starters:
SD/LA ATL
2006 6T
2007 10
2008 26 13
2009 18 6
2010 24 9
2011 21 6
2012 27 11T
2013 25 28
2014 20 8
2015 32 7
2016 26 13
2017 29 11
2018 31 12
Rivers has been a starter for 13 seasons. During that span, he has had above average pass blocking 2 times, his first 2 seasons. Since then, his pass blocking has typically been among the worst in the league. In contrast, Ryan has only played 1 season with a below average pass blocking unit. Kudos to the Atlanta organization for recognizing that he is the type of QB who needs that and giving it to him consistently.
Anyway, it is not comparable between the two. In the 11 seasons both have been starters, Rivers has had better pass blocking 1 time (2013), and barely. Ryan's pass blocking was much better in the other 10 seasons.
IMO fans tend to overrate weapons and underrate OL in terms of how they impact QB performance, and, respectfully, your post is a great example of that. I think OL >> weapons as relates to QB performance.
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
First off...Moon's journey to being an NFL QB is one of the most significant and unfortunate of any player. The glass ceiling he broke thru via Canada is sports history wise, very relevant and is obviously a part of his HOF legacy.
However, QB-to-QB, if I'm being honest, I'm not sure this is all that persuasive in Moon's favor. I may be reading this wrong so if I am, LMK...but is the above stating that (for example) in Moon's 3rd best yardage finish in his career, he finished 3rd in the league, while Ryan in his 3rd best yardage finish in his career, he finished 4th? if so...how is that not comparable based on the pattern above? It certainly also discounts or glosses over that Ryan's '2' came during an MVP All-Pro campaign.
As far as ProBowl's...Ryan didn't make the ProBowl this year despite throwing for 4900+ yards, a 35/7 TD:INT rate. Aaron Rodgers made it over him. I'd be hard-pressed to think Rodgers had a better season than Ryan, but there is a certain 'popularity' contest aspect to PB's (there always has been) and Ryan's Q-rating pales in comparison to King State Farm. I'd hesitate to use that as criteria especially considering that in 3 of Moon's PB seasons, he finished with a combined 62/61 TD:INT ratio.
Now turnovers/INT's weren't seen then as they are seen today. The average amount of INT's each team threw in 2018 was 13. Back in 1994, it was 20. However, Moon finishing his career with a 291/233 TD:INT ratio shows a pretty significant delta between Ryan's 295/133 ratio.
Career record wise...Moon finished with a 102-101 record. Ryan's right now stands at 102-72. Remember that Ryan walked into as bad of a franchise situation as I think I can ever recall what with the Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino double whammy.
BTW - Ryan all this for Ryan done prior to his 34th birthday (11 seasons). Now...what I will say is that if Ryan's career were to end today, I think his career falls short of the HOF. But someone mentioned the 'statistical accumulation' aspect of QB's careers now. If Ryan threw for 4000 yards/season for the next 5 seasons, he finishes his Age 38 season as a Top 5 (#5) passer in yards. If he throws for 5000 yards/season, he actually finishes in the same place...5th. but we'd look at these last 5 seasons very differently from a production and legacy standpoint.
So that's why I asked my original question...what constitutes a HOF caliber QB now from a production standpoint.
Color me surprised. I remembered the Chargers line pre-2010 as one of the better lines in the league. Perhaps they were much better at run blocking, but I remember McNeill, Dielman, and Hardwick, all being considered near the top of the league at their respective positions. I'll concede that o-line point to Rivers. I would still disagree that OL>>weapons. I have it as weapons over OL, probably 55-45. Both are important, and a QB's ability to overcome holes at either spot, is a good indicator of their quality.
I will 100% agree that neither QB is in my top-20, though I guess Ryan could still have an outside shot at making it.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I am still stunned that Matt Ryan's name is coming up in this thread so much. We are talking about the 10 best QB's ever, and if you look at the 2010's alone, he is lucky to even be top 10 for the decade! Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Cam and possibly even Luck have all been better. Ryan is basically another Matt Stafford, except he got lucky to not get drafted by the Lions.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Rivers is not even debatable, IMO.
Luck is a bit of a reach, I will admit, which is why I said "possibly even Luck."
In the case of Cam, while Ryan has better passing numbers, Cam's rushing numbers cannot be ignored. Let's put it this way: if Cam and Ryan both retired today, Ryan would have no shot at making the Hall of Fame, while Cam would have an outside shot.
But even if we take those three out, for the sake of argument, Ryan is not even a top 5 QB this decade. Like I said earlier, except for his 2016 season, he has never been anything more than a good QB.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
So please take my continued questioning as trying to understand why my perception of Ryan is quite a bit different than what I would say is a majority.
But when I look at Ryan and Rivers respective resumes...aren't they close to identical? if not tipped in Ryan's favor just a bit?
MVP/First-Team All-Pro: Ryan 1, Rivers 0
SB appearances: Ryan 1, Rivers 0
Conference Championship Games: Ryan 2, Rivers 1
Winning Percentage: Ryan 58.6%, Rivers 56.7%
YPG: Ryan 268.5, Rivers 262.8
TD/G: Rivers 1.8, Ryan 1.7
INT/G: Rivers .86, Ryan .76
Comp %: Ryan 65.3, Rivers 64.5
YPA: Rivers 7.8, Ryan 7.5
It's odd to me that you would put Ryan in Stafford's category of career legacy and not even debate his similarity to Rivers...
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Warren Moon might be the most overrated QB of all-time in my opinion, its him or Elway. Playing forever has its benefits.
Randall Cunningham would be my choice for best African American QB.He carried some absolutely terrible offenses, kicking and screaming to the playoffs. When Cunningham went down in 1991, it was every bit as big a deal as Brady going down in 2008. The Eagles had arguably the best defense in NFL history that year, but it gets forgotten because the offense was so awful that they didn't even make the playoffs.
He had seasons better than anything Moon or Wilson have ever done, but was somewhat hated by the media/fans for whatever reasons. I will always wonder what Cunningham would have been if he had been surrounded by good weapons and coaching when he was young. That 98' Vikings year came when Cunningham was maybe 40% of the athlete he was in Philly.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Career legacy was not the specific issue I was talking about, their play this decade was. As for career legacy goes, Ryan cannot compare to Rivers, and I still believe Rivers has been the better QB this decade all things considered (Rivers has not had a Julio Jones). Matt Ryan has been lucky to have stud WR's for all of his career (Roddy White, Julio and now he has another potential stud in Ridley). Their numbers are close, as you pointed out, but Rivers has always struck me as a guy who can still play well even if he doesn't have a good line or great weapons, while Ryan looks like a guy who has to have great line play and great weapons to play well. That is what the eye test tells me, but as always, YMMV.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
With regard to Ryan...all but two years of his career are in the 2010's (this decade)...I could post the numbers comparing just their performances this decade and there is really not much variance other than the fact that Rivers winning percentage drops to .500. Is Ridley that much more of a potential stud than Mike Williams?
The idea that Ryan would get deductions because of the weapons he's had to throw to...you don't hear those arguments for any of the other top tier QB's...who have undoubtedly had them. Was Ryan lucky that he got drafted by a team obliterated by the Vick/Petrino situation?
Manning had Harrison/Wayne
Brady had Moss/Gronk
Big Ben had Ward/AB
Montana & Young had Rice
...so when I see that there seems to be this caveat for Ryan, I think people are mistaking 'eye test' for bias. What about Rivers' career has been so special - where Ryan can't compere, that the last 9 years of Rivers' career, he's compiled a .500 record?
Fact is, if Ryan maintains the same level of production for the next 6 years of his career that he's had for the previous 8, he'll exit his Age 39 season ahead of where Drew Brees exited his Age 39 season in terms of passing yards.
