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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers

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26 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Simply the stages of grief for those who thought they stole the Pitt/Ben WR1 in round five; and also from those who thought they stole from those who thought they drafted the Pitt/Ben WR1 in round five by drafting the actual Pitt/Ben WR1 in round 12. All the while, the real thieves were the Steelers themselves who drafted the true Ben WR1 in round 2 of the NFL draft. :ph34r:

Damn, that's meta. :shock:

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22 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

DJ is a table pounding buy low if this thread is any indication.

Agreed.  Too bad I already have him:) 

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24 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

DJ is a table pounding buy low if this thread is any indication.

Not really because owners still believe.

In my experience, it takes 3 things for a buy-low:

1. commodity diminishing in perceived, but not actual value

2. Prospective buyers remaining convinced the currently perceived value is lower than actual value

3. True believers losing faith in actual value, believing in perceived value.

it’s that 3rd one that likely hasn’t yet happened. Maybe if he’s limited all week and either misses week 6, or worse plays week 6 & has yet another early exit, those true believers will start to lose faith. 

Of course then prospective buyers will also start to wonder if perception = reality, in which case they’re not buying low, they’re simply “buying”.

This logic applies to redraft. It’s way premature to expect dynasty owners to lose faith this quickly, but it never hurts to ask.

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not really because owners still believe.

In my experience, it takes 3 things for a buy-low:

1. commodity diminishing in perceived, but not actual value

2. Prospective buyers remaining convinced the currently perceived value is lower than actual value

3. True believers losing faith in actual value, believing in perceived value.

it’s that 3rd one that likely hasn’t yet happened. Maybe if he’s limited all week and either misses week 6, or worse plays week 6 & has yet another early exit, those true believers will start to lose faith. 

Of course then prospective buyers will also start to wonder if perception = reality, in which case they’re not buying low, they’re simply “buying”.

This logic applies to redraft. It’s way premature to expect dynasty owners to lose faith this quickly, but it never hurts to ask.

Slayton was a "buy low" last week.

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Just now, tricky92 said:

Slayton was a "buy low" last week.

Lather, rinse, repeat about every 3-4 weeks (or when they play a secondary as inept as the Cowboys secondary has looked) 

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7 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Lather, rinse, repeat about every 3-4 weeks (or when they play a secondary as inept as the Cowboys secondary has looked) 

Before last week, he was 5th in the league in routes run, and 16th in targets. The production didn't match the metrics. Freeman is just good enough right now too to give the defense a little something to think about, without being a total target vacuum like Barkley. I'm not saying that we're talking about a WR1 here, but wouldn't shock me at all if Slayton finishes around WR20.

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4 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Before last week, he was 5th in the league in routes run, and 16th in targets. The production didn't match the metrics. Freeman is just good enough right now too to give the defense a little something to think about, without being a total target vacuum like Barkley. I'm not saying that we're talking about a WR1 here, but wouldn't shock me at all if Slayton finishes around WR20.

Maybe true. Maybe not. Not sure what it has to do with the Dionte Johnson topic. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Maybe true. Maybe not. Not sure what it has to do with the Dionte Johnson topic. 

Just the definition of a "buy low" 🙂

With DJ you might actually be paying exactly for what you're getting.

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Just now, tricky92 said:

Just the definition of a "buy low" 🙂

With DJ you might actually be paying exactly for what you're getting.

Ah - got it. Yeah, there’s often a narrow window to “buy low”. Likewise with “selling high”

if you’re right about either, one would expect to not be able to do either for very long, as those expected risers or fallers will have risen or fallen.

I still think Slayton is prone to wild swings in production, with a high ceiling/low floor, making him also a “buy at actual value” guy, but we all have our takes on that.  

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AWESOME!  Another semantics debate about the definition of "buy low" - CANT WAIT!

:popcorn: :popcorn::popcorn:

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You can buy him dirt cheap when he misses next week, comes back week 7, promptly gets hurt again, and they then IR him. 

You can buy super low then. 

 

He's low right now but he's going lower guys! 

Glass. 

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19 minutes ago, Milkman said:

You can buy him dirt cheap when he misses next week, comes back week 7, promptly gets hurt again, and they then IR him. 

You can buy super low then. 

 

He's low right now but he's going lower guys! 

Glass. 

There we have it.  It’s sell high for some owners thinking Diontae will get injured and over shadowed by the new shiny #11. 

I would look at this as a good time to float an offer because even with Claypool, Diontae should still get a ton of targets. He is too good at getting separation. In fact, Claypool could actually help him by drawing coverage elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, Steeler said:

AWESOME!  Another semantics debate about the definition of "buy low" - CANT WAIT!

:popcorn: :popcorn::popcorn:

I literally just laughed out loud!

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27 minutes ago, Grid71 said:

There we have it.  It’s sell high for some owners thinking Diontae will get injured and over shadowed by the new shiny #11. 

I would look at this as a good time to float an offer because even with Claypool, Diontae should still get a ton of targets. He is too good at getting separation. In fact, Claypool could actually help him by drawing coverage elsewhere.

I think I read an article that he creates the most separation per target in the league, actually.

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6 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

I think I read an article that he creates the most separation per target in the league, actually.

I don’t think many question his talent.   It’s the repeat injuries and all the mouths to feed in Pittsburgh that is concerning.   First, Johnson has to finish a game.   Secondly, he needs to receive a decent amount of targets.  

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15 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

I think I read an article that he creates the most separation per target in the league, actually.

I don’t think you read that recently though - he’s around 15th rn

For the season he’s at 3.4, which is a respectable number (though misleading as a stand alone metric)

I mean per NextGen Gabriel David & Olamide Zaccheaus creates more average separation 

Lots of very good to elite WRs create less separation but understand leverage - they win 50/50 balls on body control, positioning & sheer strength

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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

I don’t think you read that recently though - he’s around 15th rn

For the season he’s at 3.4, which is a respectable number (though misleading as a stand alone metric)

I mean per NextGen Gabriel David & Olamide Zaccheaus creates more average separation 

Lots of very good to elite WRs create less separation but understand leverage - they win 50/50 balls on body control, positioning & sheer strength

who they draw in coverage matters too.

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Just now, Drunken Cowboy said:

who they draw in coverage matters too.

Well the only ones covering this guy is the medical staff right now. 

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And he can't separate from the medical staff at the moment so he'd probably have a real hard time with DBs.

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35 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

I don’t think you read that recently though - he’s around 15th rn

For the season he’s at 3.4, which is a respectable number (though misleading as a stand alone metric)

I mean per NextGen Gabriel David & Olamide Zaccheaus creates more average separation 

Lots of very good to elite WRs create less separation but understand leverage - they win 50/50 balls on body control, positioning & sheer strength

It actually could have been from last seasons data?

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13 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

It actually could have been from last seasons data?

probably, I’m sure it was true at some point

as someone else pointed out, no one is denying he has some talent

but he’s also not AB just because he’s little & went to a MAC school (ironically the guy trashing made the comp pg 1)

hope he gets healthy in a few weeks, will be good for everyone if he does

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19 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

probably, I’m sure it was true at some point

as someone else pointed out, no one is denying he has some talent

but he’s also not AB just because he’s little & went to a MAC school (ironically the guy trashing made the comp pg 1)

hope he gets healthy in a few weeks, will be good for everyone if he does

Looks just like him when he plays. AB is a great comp. Now can he get lucky and stay healthy like AB did for basically 5 straight years......that's the million dollar question. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

And he can't separate from the medical staff at the moment so he'd probably have a real hard time with DBs.

Probably good news if they play the 49er, as I’m pretty sure they’ve suited up the medical staff to play DB at this point. Warm bodies. :shrug: 

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4 hours ago, DocHolliday said:

First, Johnson has to finish a game. 

He’s done that 18 out of 20 games so far, so you can check that box off.

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4 hours ago, Milkman said:

Looks just like him when he plays. AB is a great comp. Now can he get lucky and stay healthy like AB did for basically 5 straight years......that's the million dollar question. 

Health/durability is a lot less a matter of luck than most here care to believe. Some guys take better care of their bodies/nutrition. Others know how to subtly dodge the biggest hits. Some are very good at body control/balance and don't fall quite as hard. Others are just made of genetic steel. And the most durable have some combo of all of the above. Don't get me wrong, there is obviously some luck involved too. But not nearly close to all.

Best indicator, I would guess is past history, but then you still have the Frank Gores who bust up multiple times early, then become utter tanks later. Without having some regression analytics to lean this into, I'd suspect Frank would prove to be the rare exception to a general rule that past history is the best single indicator of injury proclivity. If true, that doesn't bode well for your man-crush turned turnip.

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3 minutes ago, LawFitz said:

Health/durability is a lot less a matter of luck than most here care to believe. Some guys take better care of their bodies/nutrition. Others know how to subtly dodge the biggest hits. Some are very good at body control/balance and don't fall quite as hard. Others are just made of genetic steel. And the most durable have some combo of all of the above. Don't get me wrong, there is obviously some luck involved too. But not nearly close to all.

Best indicator, I would guess is past history, but then you still have the Frank Gores who bust up multiple times early, then become utter tanks later. Without having some regression analytics to lean this into, I'd suspect Frank would prove to be the rare exception to a general rule that past history is the best single indicator of injury proclivity. If true, that doesn't bode well for your man-crush turned turnip.

Agreed. Sadly.

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Diontae Johnson (back) returned to Steelers practice on Thursday, getting in a "limited" session. 

It gives Johnson a shot at suiting up against the Browns, though Friday's session will be critical. "Full" would have him on track to play. "Limited" would trend him toward a game-time decision. At less than 100 percent health one week after Chase Claypool went nuclear in his absence, Johnson would be a mid-range WR3 if he gets the go-ahead. 

Oct 15, 2020, 4:27 PM ET

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I know all the back and forth in here but going to be hard to trot him out if you have another decent option.  Then watch he goes ham.  Ugh..

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4 minutes ago, Buck Bradcanon said:

I know all the back and forth in here but going to be hard to trot him out if you have another decent option.  Then watch he goes ham.  Ugh..

My wr problem from day one. Is he healthy? Should I play a lesser wr that is healthy? Start, bench, or waiver wire?  

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4 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

My wr problem from day one. Is he healthy? Should I play a lesser wr that is healthy? Start, bench, or waiver wire?  

Worth holding for a couple of weeks but I don’t feel comfortable starting him.  Let’s see if he can get healthy, get on the field, and stay on the field.  

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2 minutes ago, Teef said:

Glass Dionte 

Sounds like something bought at a high priced mall. Nice to look at until it breaks a week later.

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Glass Diontae letting his owners down yet again. At least he's not going in my starting lineup and then getting tackled once and limping off. 

Edited by Milkman

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Backs can be really tricky, you hope it's not a longterm nerve issue with him...

 

unless you're the Claypool owner apparently.

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Backs are tricky. Diontae could be out several more weeks. Steelers being pretty hush hush on what's wrong with him too isn't helpful. 

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He's on my dynasty team so that increases the chances of him being out for the season dramatically. 

You've been warned. Lol

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At least we know it on Friday and it’s not a GTD

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14 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

Backs can be really tricky, you hope it's not a longterm nerve issue with him...

I tried telling folks this and was lambasted for it since I didn’t know the specifics of Dionte’s injury. 

The fact is back injuries are among the most difficult to predict the outcome for, and can be aggregated merely by sleeping wrong, much less taking a hit from an NFL LB or S. 

I said it before, I’ll say it again. He’s a hard player to trust right now. 

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10 minutes ago, Acrobat7 said:

At least we know it on Friday and it’s not a GTD

Or worse, starting him & getting a sub 2 point score before he went out. Again. 

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I tried telling folks this and was lambasted for it since I didn’t know the specifics of Dionte’s injury. 

The fact is back injuries are among the most difficult to predict the outcome for, and can be aggregated merely by sleeping wrong, much less taking a hit from an NFL LB or S. 

I said it before, I’ll say it again. He’s a hard player to trust right now. 

If it's just spasms, it can also heal up and be of no further issue real quickly.

Dealt with them a few times in my young hockey playing days. Would go for a few days feeling like I might never be able to move comfortable again, to playing in a week.

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35 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Backs are tricky. Diontae could be out several more weeks. Steelers being pretty hush hush on what's wrong with him too isn't helpful. 

What’s the basis for this statement about the Steelers being hush hush about it or being out several weeks? They said he has a back injury and it must be significant enough that he’s been ruled out early. What more would you expect at this stage? A copy of his medical file?

Edited by RushHour
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8 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

If it's just spasms, it can also heal up and be of no further issue real quickly.

Dealt with them a few times in my young hockey playing days. Would go for a few days feeling like I might never be able to move comfortable again, to playing in a week.

This is why I said hard to trust.

I suffered back issues for 6 months. Almost had surgery for a slipped but stable L5. The cortisone shot finally knocked out the inflammation.

But by nature back injuries can be debilitating. it makes it difficult to trust. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Backs are tricky. Diontae could be out several more weeks. Steelers being pretty hush hush on what's wrong with him too isn't helpful. 

At least Zack Moss isn’t on the team with him.

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1 hour ago, Teef said:

Glass Dionte ruled OUT for week 6

It's Mr. Glass to you

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In small leagues, is he droppable if not playing next week?   Can’t imagine anyone wants him in a trade in redraft.   

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