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Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

brun said:
Knew it would be difficult/unlikely to survive weeks 10 - 11. About 8 below the cut. Should close the current gap, but don't know how much the cut will move. With;

Breida & Carson at -2.1 & -11.8

Lockett  & Gordon at -2.1 & -12.7

SEAHAWKS D at - 0.0

GL all
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You should be fine.

 
heckmanm said:
Looks like I'm done.  9.5 below the cut line, with Lions D - 5.00 going tonight.

TE spot crapped the bed (Engram bye, Vance 2.0, Hurst 1.9) and nobody else really blowed up. 

I figured I'd go out next week with CMC on bye
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So, I basically stopped following the contest after this.  But was checking the thread today and figured I'd look and see how my dead entry would have done afterwards.  And I see on the FBG page:

This entry is still alive.
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WTAF?? I guess the cutoff ended up being lower than predicted, because I scraped by week 6 (145.7 vs 142.3) AND week 7 (126.75 vs 125.85). 

Actually I see what happened now - I missed that I also had Prater in addition to the Lions D, and he got 21 that week.

I'M BACK, BABY!

 
heckmanm said:
So, I basically stopped following the contest after this.  But was checking the thread today and figured I'd look and see how my dead entry would have done afterwards.  And I see on the FBG page:

WTAF?? I guess the cutoff ended up being lower than predicted, because I scraped by week 6 (145.7 vs 142.3) AND week 7 (126.75 vs 125.85). 

Actually I see what happened now - I missed that I also had Prater in addition to the Lions D, and he got 21 that week.

I'M BACK, BABY!
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:lmao:

Resurrected

 
JoeSteeler said:
158.65 so far -  still have Carson, Breida, and Lockett. One of my flex spots is 0, so one of them will count fully. 

Current cut line is 135.15, will probably move 10-12 points I will guess
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The cutoff has never moved that much this year. It came close week 5 (+9.95), but usually it moves more like 5 or 6.

On the other hand, you might be right: Gordon, Carson and Lockett are the 1st, 2nd and 4th most-rostered players on living teams, and Breida is 8th. Either way, you're getting through with ease.

 
jdkapow said:
The cutoff has never moved that much this year. It came close week 5 (+9.95), but usually it moves more like 5 or 6.

On the other hand, you might be right: Gordon, Carson and Lockett are the 1st, 2nd and 4th most-rostered players on living teams, and Breida is 8th. Either way, you're getting through with ease.
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It could move rather sharply given 6 teams were on a bye if it's a high scoring game.

 
jdkapow said:
The cutoff has never moved that much this year. It came close week 5 (+9.95), but usually it moves more like 5 or 6.

On the other hand, you might be right: Gordon, Carson and Lockett are the 1st, 2nd and 4th most-rostered players on living teams, and Breida is 8th. Either way, you're getting through with ease.
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you could be right but i was thinking with so many highly rostered and the byes could push it up higher than usual

 
13.5 above the cut, with Carson and Breida (-5.9, -8.5) for flex spots and Seahawks (-1).  Jackson/Andrews combo will be my saving grace if I make it, as had Nuk and Thielen out and ho-hum scores from RBs, and Wrs.

I was surprised this morning when I saw the cutoff.  Thought it would be higher, but agree that tonight could be a big mover.  Hopefully aforementioned guys will be cause of that.

 
Glad to see the cutoff so low. There were some pedestrian games by some big names, and big games from people that are probably not highly owned (among survivors), like Kirk. Henry and Cooper have low ownership as well.

ETA Tyreek Hill, Slayton (nvm not in contest)

 
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And I'm out but believe its the deepest run ever for me.  After averaging about 180 points per week I'm sitting at 88pts no thanks to bye week (Brady, Edelman D johnson, Fournette) injuries Sheppard and Engram and no shows like Kupp, Goff, Ingram.  GL to all the rest of the way.

 
wow 20 above cutline with 7.5 combined rb points!  almost all of briedas and/or carsons pts will count for me so pretty sure im safe.

also welcome to the party james washington!  now all of my 9 wrs but josh gordon have counted at some point this year.  (though gordon has had a 16, a 14 and an 11 this year so far so he hasnt been totally useless).

 
My guess is we will see at least a 10 point jump, as long as Carson, Breida, Lockett, and the D's score a decent amount.  Final guess - 149

 
Rank 149 currently for the week, still have brieda, Carson and lockett(and gordon) still to play. Solid week and on to week 11. Farthest I’ve made it and I’m passed most of my byes. Week 11 isn’t gonna be easy with my SEA players on bye. But let’s see what happens. Good luck to everyone on the “edge” tonight! 

 
7 above the cut with Carson and Breida to go tonight, -1, -1.2 over my two RBs currently in play. This was far and away my worst bye week, so with some luck I may have a shot at something this year.

 
Survived again........ Team Holloway

  • QB Goff used 4 354 remain
  • QB Jackson 6, 1101
  • RB K. Johnson 4, 109 IR - my weakest position
  • RB Carson 8, 1059
  • RB Breida 4, 683
  • RB Duke Johnson 4, 910
  • RB Singletary 5, 857
  • WR Lockett 8, 897
  • WR A. Robinson 7, 132
  • WR Westbrook 3, 557
  • WR Gallup 6, 483
  • WR Moncrief 0, 97
  • WR J. Gordon 2, 1105
  • WR Enunwa 0, 44 IR
  • WR Gabriel 2, 26
  • TE Henry 5, 245
  • TE Andrews 6, 875
  • TE Herndon 0, 141 IR
  • TE Waller 6, 683
  • TE Kroft 0, 11
  • PK Santos 1, 143 Cut
  • PK Bullock 4, 95
  • PK Seibert 5, 284
  • DST Jags 3, 111
  • DST Cowboys 3, 445
  • DST Jets 4, 357
Carson and Lockett combo on bye this coming week

 
Lehigh98 said:
Made the cut but the next two weeks I'm facing 4 and 5 byes...

Week 10: Tom Brady (scored 3x), Duke Johnson (3x), Dede Westbrook (5x), Dallas Goedert (5x)

Week 11: Chris Carson (scored 7x), Tyler Lockett (8x), MVS (2x), Josh Gordon (2x), SEA D (2x)

I think I've got decent coverage this week but no Seattle next week will be tough.

:scared:
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Made it this week with a 184, next week is going to be a problem.

 
8th last week.....OUT this week....G0d D@mn  boys!!!  L Jackson, McCaffrey, Jacobs, Ertz....bye bye .............damn Kupp and Lockett this week.  Contest is one of the best and most challenging.  GL gents.

 
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Final cut is 152.40 

QB - Goff (5), Winston (5)

RB - Elliott (9), David Johnson (5), Breida (5), Singletary (4), Duke Johnson (3)

WR - Julio Jones (8), Lockett (8), Godwin (7), Fitzgerald (6), Gordon (2)

TE - Andrews (7), Engram (6)

K - Gay (6), Carlson (2), Seibert (2)

D - Giants (5.5), Jets (4.5)

Under by 10.5 this week.  I have been booted twice (week 7 also).

 
Still alive, by 7.8 or so. New record for team D average? SF - 19, SEA - 17, NYJ - 16. 

Edit: Also if Sanders misses any time, I am essentially down to 2 WR, Westbrook and Curtis Samuel. 

 
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Well, you guys were right. It jumped up, what, 17? My 166 keeps me in another week. I've only got one dead player (DeSean Jackson), and a couple others who've come back to life in one sense or another (Josh Gordon, Kalen Ballage), so who knows?

I won't be able to get my usual weekly team and player posts up until tonight.

 
Made it thru, not because of the usual guys. Because the Seattle D  and Miami K had very productive fantasy weeks.

GL all

 
Carson/Lockett/Gordon/Engram on bye next week, and Breida nicked up.  Could be tough.

Still have CMC/Duke/Singletary, Thomas/Westbrook/Cobb, and McDonald/Hurst to cover 7 flex spots, so really only room for 1 stinker out of that group.

 
heckmanm said:
Carson/Lockett/Gordon/Engram on bye next week, and Breida nicked up.  Could be tough.

Still have CMC/Duke/Singletary, Thomas/Westbrook/Cobb, and McDonald/Hurst to cover 7 flex spots, so really only room for 1 stinker out of that group.
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I have been wrong on my gut already about peoples' rosters, but my gut tells me with those 8 guys, there's no way you have enough firepower to get through a cut of 37.5%...especially given that Westbrook is dinged up...and Hurst as a "maybe he'll do something this week" TE...and Duke as a "It depends upon the matchup whether or not he'll get any significant touches"...

but, hey, I still can't figure out how teams with only 18 guys are still in this....

 
Solomon Grundy said:
I have been wrong on my gut already about peoples' rosters, but my gut tells me with those 8 guys, there's no way you have enough firepower to get through a cut of 37.5%...especially given that Westbrook is dinged up...and Hurst as a "maybe he'll do something this week" TE...and Duke as a "It depends upon the matchup whether or not he'll get any significant touches"...

but, hey, I still can't figure out how teams with only 18 guys are still in this....
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If I sounded optimistic there, it wasn't my intent. I probably need a blowup K/DEF week and strong QB score (Winston/Carr) in addition to above-average production from the rest.

 
Moving on, but week 11 will be my toughest week.  My intent was to never have more than three players on a bye any given week, and never more than one at any position.  With Gordon going to the Seahawks, I have both him and Lockett out (not to mention Carson) sitting.  Some guys stepping up would be nice (I'm looking at you, Juju).  Otherwise, I'll be relying on my TEs for both flex positions for the second straight week.

Cook and Waller (co-MVPs) have counted for me every possible week, while Daniel Carlson is my last dead weight.

Lamar (7), Brady (1), Dimes (2)
Cook (10), Carson (7), Murray (3), Duke (2), Gore (4) - but forever ago.
Julio (8), Juju (4), Lockett (8), Deebo (3), Gordon (3) 
Howard (1 - welcome FINALLY), Andrews (7), Waller (9)
Gay (5), Gonzalez (5), Carlson (0)
Cards (5), Cowboys (4), Bungles (1)

 
I don't see how I can survive week 11 without some sort of minor miracle. Will have:

Jackson/Goff

Chubb/D Montgomery/Duke/Breida (?)/Ty Montgomery

Thielen (?)/Godwin/Crowder

Andrews/Waller

Prater/Gay

Panthers/Jets

so between 8-10 players to cover the 7 spots. 

 
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It's basically a middle of the pack team all year.  Highest score was 224 the first week, but nothing over 185 since.  The closest the Turk has got to me was 3.46 pts. in week 8.  

Lamar (6), Winston (4), Darnold (0)

Chubb (8), Carson (8), Singletary (4), Breida (3), Mattison (1)

Hopkins (8), C Samuel (7), Gallup (7), Thielen (5), Quinn (1), Wilson (1)

Waller (8), Andrews (7), Walker (2)

Seahawks (5), Cowboys (3), Broncos (2)

Gay (8), Carlson (2), Rosas (0)

 
Injuries starting to strike my group now, week 11 and 12 about to be a big challenge with injuries and byes. On the bright side most of these guys seem to be highly owned, maybe wishful thinking but hoping it will end up also hurting a high % of teams.

Week 11

Bye- Carson and Lockette

Injuries- Thielan, Breida, Herndon, and Manny Sanders

Week 12

Bye- Cook, Thielan, Gonzales

Injuries- Lockette, Breida, Herndon, and Manny Sanders

QB - been a great tandem so far and no more byes

Goff (5)  

Winston (5)

RB- really strong group but 3 more byes

Cook (10)

Chubb (7)

Fournette (6)

Carson (6)

Breida (2)

WR-  shallow with only 5 , Thielan out but Manny looking strong as a 49er

Kupp (7)

Lockett (7)

Thielan (5)

Sanders (5)

Gallup (4)

TE- my weak link but no more byes and Herndon finally back

Andrews (6)

Everett (5)

Herndon (0)

PK- great bang for buck

Gonzalez (7)

Seibert (3)

DST- great bang for buck

49ers (5)

Panthers (5)

 
Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Living Team: Seven teams are still averaging over 200, still led by Entry 107906 at 208.23.

Strongest Dead Team: A new leader here: Black Out (Entry 109376) is in 18th place overall with an average of 197.41. That and a couple bucks will get them a cup of coffee, though, since they’re no longer in contention.

Keep Your Day Job Award: A new leader here as well: Entry 105520 had what appears to be a serious entry and yet has managed to average only 115.77 points per week.

Safest Team: Wow. We have a tie here. Entry 101017 and Plastik (Entry 103790) have both cleared the cutoff  by at least 32.3 points every week. Plastik is the stronger team, in 10th place overall with a 198.71 average. Entry 101017 is down at 224th (185th among living teams), averaging 189.07 per week.

Just Skating By Award: We broke the 20 point barrier here. Skills Wills dominates this category. They have never cleared by better than 20.45 points; no other team is under 30! Skills Wills has cleared the cutoff by a total of 80.1 points over the 10 weeks of the contest; they’re the only team under 100. Keep bobbing and weaving, Skills Wills: I’m rooting for you!

Steady Eddie Award: MacADo (Entry 110273) is still the most boring team out there, and is also still alive. They have a contest-low standard deviation of 6.34. They have scored between 163 and 178 every single week. Nobody else has a standard deviation within a point of MacADo and only 8 teams are under 10. Seven of those are alive, the exception being Entry 109443, who has the second-lowest standard deviation but sadly around a much lower average.

Crazy Eddie Award: At this point, the 230 teams with the highest standard deviations have all been eliminated (that number was 110 last week). Next up is Entry 111463, who’s really only had one dicey week despite the swings (131.65 in week 7).

Icarus Award: See the strongest dead team above. Black Out (Entry 109376). This team was in 7th place in the  entire contest, averaging 202.88 per week, only to see it all come crashing down this week. Jameis Winston, Dalvin Cook and Mark Andrews weren’t enough to save them. Just goes to show you, it could happen to any of us.

Would Coulda Shoulda Award: Entry 100736 is still the king of kicking himself. This team has averaged over 187 points from weeks 3-10, good for 133rd in the contest over that period. Alas, they were a zombie team that whole time after being eliminated in week 2.

Notable Teams:

QBs:  All 73 teams with 6 or more QBs teams are dead; the last three 6-QB teams died this week. There are many 5-QB teams alive: I will stop reporting on this.

RBs: No change: three 11-RB teams remain (out of 12 originally).

WRs: With the death of solgrun (Entry 106155) this week, Brute (Entry 110662) is now the only 12-WR team left standing.

TEs: With the death of Drunk with Power (Entry 104883) this week, MrScamper (Entry 101440) is now the only 6-TE team left standing.

PKs: With the death of Entry 110705 this week, 107656.is now the only 5-K team left standing.

DEFs: With the death of…haha, fooled you! No change: two 6-DEF teams still around, Entry 106884 and Entry 110564.

And me, you ask? I’m alive and hanging in there: I cleared the cutoff by around 14 points this week but dropped 101 spots in the overall standings, to 528th (I dropped 40 slots among living teams, to 389th).

More to come later...

 
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