Stoneworker
Footballguy
I adhere to the same "no-risk in Rd 1" philosophy. I'm also a tier-based disciple. Love CEH but would never draft him sight unseen at current prices.Yeah, same here. Sitting at 5 in a 1/2 PPR and at this point I assume that CMC, Zeke, Barkley and Kamara will be gone (my brother has the 4th pick and I dont think the contract news has him re-thinking Kamara at this point)
I tend to operate under the "you can't win a league in the the first round, but you can lose it" mentality so as much as I believe in CEH's talent and situation, I'm still really hesitant to pull the trigger.
That being said, I have concerns over all the other options as well.
Cook- injury history and contract situation
Henry- lack of receptions and the likelihood of a dip in TD's (IMO)
M. Thomas- I just dont like going WR in the first round, although the fact that we start 3 gives me a little more comfort with locking in an elite guy.
I'm usually willing to reach a little with my 2nd-4th round picks (if there's a guy I REALLY believe in) but my first rounder.....not so much. The pragmatist in me is saying to take Henry and just live with the low ceiling (compared to CEH) high floor situation. Then maybe I try to jump on someone else (like Taylor) a little earlier if the situation presents itself.
Staying true to those rules would say Thomas is the no-brainer pick at 5 (assuming top 4 are gone and you're not high on Cook).
Then come back around in 2&3 and target guys like A.Jones, C. Carson, Conner, maybe DJ or Gurley if you're high on them.
WR's are deep so should easily get two quality choices in Rds4&5. Or grab a tier 2 TE that falls (e.g. Waller/Engram).