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Devy & Redraft: Clyde Edwards-Helaire: KC IT IS!!!

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13 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

Yeah, same here. Sitting at 5 in a 1/2 PPR and at this point I assume that CMC, Zeke, Barkley and Kamara will be gone (my brother has the 4th pick and I dont think the contract news has him re-thinking Kamara at this point)

I tend to operate under the "you can't win a league in the the first round, but you can lose it" mentality so as much as I believe in CEH's talent and situation, I'm still really hesitant to pull the trigger.

That being said, I have concerns over all the other options as well.

Cook- injury history and contract situation

Henry- lack of receptions and the likelihood of a dip in TD's (IMO)

M. Thomas- I just dont like going WR in the first round, although the fact that we start 3 gives me a little more comfort with locking in an elite guy.

I'm usually willing to reach a little with my 2nd-4th round picks (if there's a guy I REALLY believe in) but my first rounder.....not so much. The pragmatist in me is saying to take Henry and just live with the low ceiling (compared to CEH) high floor situation.  Then maybe I try to jump on someone else (like Taylor) a little earlier if the situation presents itself.

 

I adhere to the same "no-risk in Rd 1" philosophy. I'm also a tier-based disciple. Love CEH but would never draft him sight unseen at current prices.

Staying true to those rules would say Thomas is the no-brainer pick at 5 (assuming top 4 are gone and you're not high on Cook).

Then come back around in 2&3 and target guys like A.Jones, C. Carson, Conner, maybe DJ or Gurley if you're high on them.

WR's are deep so should easily get two quality choices in Rds4&5. Or grab a tier 2 TE that falls (e.g. Waller/Engram).

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1 minute ago, Keith1 said:

Absolutely thinking the same thing (i.e. reaching for Taylor early in the 3rd at pick # 28). But I am not so sure I would call Henry a "low ceiling" guy. Let's not forget that the Titans were one-dimensional early last year until they dropped Mariota (who could not throw for chit) and went to Tannehill. Now they actually have at least a threat of a passing game--with a developing WR stud in A.J. Brown. If Henry is "low ceiling" then he is as about as much of a "high floor" as you can get. 

Don't get me wrong--after Henry, Kamara and Thomas are picked, then Helaire is absolutely the guy to take. 

So that's the other thing....was Tannehill for real? Wouldn't be the first guy to have a really good half a season and then fall back into what he was before. 

There were certainly potential reason for Tannehill's previous mediocrity (as a Jets fan, I'm painfully aware of the Adam Gase "influence") so I'm not going to say it was a fluke. I just dont think its a 100% certainty that the Titans offense just keeps rolling along like they did late in the year. 

Agree on AJ Brown though. Uber stud in the making. 

In 2020, I generally think of any RB that doesn't catch a lot of balls as a "low ceiling guy". Not a knock on Henry, but its just so nice to know that you can count on your # 1 guy picking up an extra handful of points every week via dumpoffs.  Its just a nice safety net to help avoid a stinker on days where they're being bottled up.

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14 minutes ago, TLEF316 said:

So that's the other thing....was Tannehill for real? Wouldn't be the first guy to have a really good half a season and then fall back into what he was before. 

There were certainly potential reason for Tannehill's previous mediocrity (as a Jets fan, I'm painfully aware of the Adam Gase "influence") so I'm not going to say it was a fluke. I just dont think its a 100% certainty that the Titans offense just keeps rolling along like they did late in the year. 

Agree on AJ Brown though. Uber stud in the making. 

In 2020, I generally think of any RB that doesn't catch a lot of balls as a "low ceiling guy". Not a knock on Henry, but its just so nice to know that you can count on your # 1 guy picking up an extra handful of points every week via dumpoffs.  Its just a nice safety net to help avoid a stinker on days where they're being bottled up.

I hear you. The flip side though is that you know Henry is going to get 20+ carries every game and when they get anywhere near the goal line, they are going to give it to him.

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12 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Has anyone seen any CEH trades in PPR dynasty yet? Curious on what I can get for him...

Trade finder: 
CEH for Hock, Conner, 2021 1st

CEH for Sanders and Jarwin

CEH for Drake and Golladay

CEH, Washington, 3rd 21 for 1st 21, Sutton, m lee

CEH for 1.05, 1.07, 2021 3

CEH, Minshew, armstead for Mahomes, McFarland, deebo

 

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This dude’s usually pretty on the money. If that’s a RBBC, CEH’s ADP seems a smidge high as a top 6-7 pick.

:unsure:

The Athletic's Nate Taylor suggests it would not be a surprise if Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams "split most of the Chiefs’ rushing attempts on opening night."

Williams has exclusively worked as the Chiefs' No. 2 back in camp and, as Taylor writes, been "the Chiefs’ best pass-block option at the position." Edwards-Helaire is still expected to lead this backfield in touches and catches in Week 1, but Taylor suggests coach Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy will "want to ease Edwards-Helaire into a rhythm" in his NFL debut. This isn't a knock on the rookie's season-long outlook, but merely a reminder that Williams is fully expected to have a role as a low-end FLEX option in Kansas City's season opener.

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28 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

This dude’s usually pretty on the money. If that’s a RBBC, CEH’s ADP seems a smidge high as a top 6-7 pick.

:unsure:

 

 

It doesn’t say what kind of “split” and it clarifies the “split” to “rushing attempts”. Most expect receiving to be a big part of CEH’s value.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It doesn’t say what kind of “split” and it clarifies the “split” to “rushing attempts”. Most expect receiving to be a big part of CEH’s value.

I’m just sharing the report. I think CEH will be good & I certainly trust KC’s evaluation, but lacking a preseason he seems to be going a little higher than I’d be comfortable with. 

Results will probably prove my concern unfounded. 

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I think Darrel Williams is being a bit under-rated, and CEH is a bit over-rated especially for a rookie.  That offense runs through Mahomes, and the RB's most important job is protecting him.  Darrel WIlliams has shown that he can do that well.  He also looks really good running the ball, and I honestly thought he had a shot last year to take over.  

Edited by DeaLerZ
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1 minute ago, DeaLerZ said:

I think Darrel Williams is being a bit under-rated, and CEH is a bit over-rated especially for a rookie.  That offense runs through Mahomes, and the RB's most important job is protecting him.  Darrel WIlliams has shown that he can do that well.  He also looks really good running the ball, and I honestly thought he had a shot last year to take over.  

Someone showed stats that, for the Chiefs, protecting the Qb is actually rarely a task for the Rb.

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4 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

This dude’s usually pretty on the money. If that’s a RBBC, CEH’s ADP seems a smidge high as a top 6-7 pick.

:unsure:

 

 

I am glad you clarified that it's a "smidge" high. I was bouncing back and forth between that projection and a "tad" high, now I feel much more comfortable with settling on smidge with some confirmation.

So #round 1  @9.4376?

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5 minutes ago, Truebluey said:

I am glad you clarified that it's a "smidge" high. I was bouncing back and forth between that projection and a "tad" high, now I feel much more comfortable with settling on smidge with some confirmation.

So #round 1  @9.4376?

lol. I said smidge because I don't see it dropping him that far - as mentioned, I trust the Chiefs talent evaluation. But it would be nice to know what the split is. Without a pre-season, lather, rinse, repeat the same concern I have for many players.
 

I'd say 9-12 (which might as well be 2.01) would be where I'd be comfortable taking him. After 4-5 RBs and 2-3 WRs are off the board. I probably would not take him over a Henry, even in PPR.  And if I did, at least I'd have another pick really quickly to temper the risk. 

I say this because I've been mocking like crazy the last few days & I'm routinely seeing him go ahead of MThomas, Henry, Cook, Kamara more and more the last 24 hours. I would be unlikely to invest that high regardless of this report, however had the report been "CEH expected to dominate as much as 80% of the workload and be a 3-down workhorse" instead, I might consider him as high as 1.03 along with Zeke, Kamara, & Thomas.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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2 hours ago, DeaLerZ said:

I think Darrel Williams is being a bit under-rated, and CEH is a bit over-rated especially for a rookie.  That offense runs through Mahomes, and the RB's most important job is protecting him.  Darrel WIlliams has shown that he can do that well.  He also looks really good running the ball, and I honestly thought he had a shot last year to take over.  

Can we please put this idea to rest?  KC doesn't ask their backs to block, they want them to run routes.  That's one of CEH's specialities.

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Can we please put this idea to rest?  KC doesn't ask their backs to block, they want them to run routes.  That's one of CEH's specialities.

KC runs the ball 4 times in the first half then grinds out in the second half to preserve the win. The issue is if CEH will be on the field for that part or not. At this point no one knows however he is the rb1 there so we can presume he is a great chance at getting many of those carries

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44 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I just got an offer in my dynasty PPR league for my CEH...his Godwin & David Johnson for CEH. I don't think I'm going to accept it, but I don't necessarily think that's a terrible offer considering he hasn't played a down yet offer since he has not played an NFL down yet. Start 2 RB, 3 WR & 2 flex. My other RBs are CMC & Conner. Starting WRs are Golladay, Parker & Hilton.

Well, Godwin is a top-10 overall dynasty asset.  Is CEH already in that category as well?  Because I would have to respectfully disagree...

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11 hours ago, VikingFrog said:

I want some of what that guy is smoking. And I ain’t talking about the ribs he mentioned.

Taking CEH with his third pick over.... McCaffrey!

I do think the CEH hype has gotten a bit out of control.  RB carries in 2018-2019 (w/Mahomes) = 609.  75% of those would give him 228.  I don’t doubt he can be an RB1...but feels like he is getting Top 5 love and I’ve always felt you need volume for that territory.

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2 hours ago, TheDirtyWord said:

I do think the CEH hype has gotten a bit out of control.  RB carries in 2018-2019 (w/Mahomes) = 609.  75% of those would give him 228.  I don’t doubt he can be an RB1...but feels like he is getting Top 5 love and I’ve always felt you need volume for that territory.

Do you not expect him to catch passes?

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Do you not expect him to catch passes?

KC was 15th in the NFL last year in targets to their RBs. It’s not like it’s a huge difference maker. No one had over 37 targets last year. And don’t give me the “they didn’t have anyone like CEH” defense. The whole concept of CEHs inflates value is the SYSTEM he is in, and the SYSTEM doesn’t heavily target RBs 

With Kareem Hunt in 2018 and 2017 they were 24th and 14th in the NFL in targets 

Since Jamaal Charles KC has had a RB >42 targets only once

Its certainly not particularly the system for catching passes anyone else makes it to be. Denver has been a better offense than KC for targets to RBs over the last 5 years

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1 minute ago, I-ROK said:

KC was 15th in the NFL last year in targets to their RBs. It’s not like it’s a huge difference maker. No one had over 37 targets last year. And don’t give me the “they didn’t have anyone like CEH” defense. The whole concept of CEHs inflates value is the SYSTEM he is in, and the SYSTEM doesn’t heavily target RBs 

With Kareem Hunt in 2018 and 2017 they were 24th and 14th in the NFL in targets 

Since Jamaal Charles KC has had a RB >42 targets only once

Its certainly not particularly the system for catching passes anyone else makes it to be. Denver has been a better offense than KC for targets to RBs over the last 5 years

Andy Reid offenses don’t throw to RBs?

15th last season isn’t damning (And no back getting more than 37 targets doesn’t tell the entire story since they were forced to use multiple backs due to injuries). And although you don’t want to hear it CEH is a significantly more talented RB and a better pass catcher than anyone that was there last season.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Andy Reid offenses don’t throw to RBs?

15th last season isn’t damning (And no back getting more than 37 targets doesn’t tell the entire story since they were forced to use multiple backs due to injuries). And although you don’t want to hear it CEH is a significantly more talented RB and a better pass catcher than anyone that was there last season.

How many targets do you see CEH getting this year assuming 16 healthy games 

 

and no, I didn’t say Andy reid doesn’t throw to his rbs. I said that offense wasn’t as targeting of its RBs as it’s made out to be. 50th-ish percentile over the last 6-7 years isn’t where I’d imagine them to be considering the off-season hype

Edited by I-ROK

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16 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

and no, I didn’t say Andy reid doesn’t throw to his rbs. I said that offense wasn’t as targeting of its RBs as it’s made out to be. 50th-ish percentile over the last 6-7 years isn’t where I’d imagine them to be considering the off-season hype

And I never said that CEH was going to lead the league in receptions. I responded to some one that listed his carries as his only source of fantasy points. I have him penciled in for 55 receptions for 445 yards and 4 TDs. I have 8 RBs catching more passes than him for what it's worth.

The off-season "hype" stems from a talented back landing in the leagues best offense. I don't think anything you countered with threw cold water on that. :shrug:

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And I never said that CEH was going to lead the league in receptions. I responded to some one that listed his carries as his only source of fantasy points. I have him penciled in for 55 receptions for 445 yards and 4 TDs. I have 8 RBs catching more passes than him for what it's worth.

The off-season "hype" stems from a talented back landing in the leagues best offense. I don't think anything you countered with threw cold water on that. :shrug:

It’s one of the best offenses but not one of the best in touches to its RBs. If Jeudy went there I’d probably be more excited than a RB. Not real interested in going through this debate again but I appreciate your numbers. That’s a bit high for me as I see him hauling in about 35 receptions. I realize these days this is a minority take and I’m good with that. 

Edited by I-ROK

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10 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

It’s one of the best offenses but not one of the best in touches to its RBs. If Jeudy went there I’d probably be more excited than a RB. Not real interested in going through this debate again but I appreciate your numbers. That’s a bit high for me as I see him hauling in about 35 receptions. I realize these days this is a minority take and I’m good with that. 

KC isn't a good landing spot for a RB?  Yeah lets just agree to disagree on that.

I mean it only made a journeyman type back, in Damien Williams, fantasy relevant and a third round RB out of Toledo, in Kareem Hunt, into a fantasy stud in the last three seasons alone. Just imagine what a first round talent could do there?

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

KC isn't a good landing spot for a RB?  Yeah lets just agree to disagree on that.

I mean it only made a journeyman type back, in Damien Williams, fantasy relevant and a third round RB out of Toledo, in Kareem Hunt, into a fantasy stud in the last three seasons alone. Just imagine what a first round talent could do there?

That’s not what I said. Again 

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1 minute ago, I-ROK said:

That’s not what I said. Again 

It's exactly what you said: 

 

17 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

It’s one of the best offenses but not one of the best in touches to its RBs. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's exactly what you said: 

 

 

I missed where I said it isn’t a good landing spot for RBs. All I said is that they are in the middle of the pack for touches and targets to their RBs, which is statistically true as I stated above. About 50th percentile over the last several years. That’s not one of the best

Edited by I-ROK

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Just now, I-ROK said:

I missed where I said it isn’t a good landing spot for RBs. All I said is that they are in the middle of the pack for touches and targets to their RBs, which is statistically true. 

Yeah, ok.

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1 minute ago, I-ROK said:

I missed where I said it isn’t a good landing spot for RBs. All I said is that they are in the middle of the pack for touches and targets to their RBs, which is statistically true as I stated above. About 50th percentile over the last several years. That’s not one of the best

The offense is great for RB's because they don't need a lot of touches to put up big numbers.  They thrive despite the limited touches because of all the other weapons and space that the offense puts them in. 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Yeah, ok.

If you consider 50th percent in the league as one of the best then I guess you’re right. I consider one of the best around top 5. Now, what you could have said, instead of putting words in my mouth, is that fantasy wise those RBs have done wonderfully in spite of not being on one of the best teams in the league for touches to their RB. 

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6 minutes ago, Gally said:

The offense is great for RB's because they don't need a lot of touches to put up big numbers.  They thrive despite the limited touches because of all the other weapons and space that the offense puts them in. 

See, like this guy

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2 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

See, like this guy

But KC is one of the best landing spot for RB's despite the middle of the pack touch numbers. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Do you not expect him to catch passes?

Of course I do, but even with Checkdown Alex Smith, Hunt only caught 53 his rookie year.  So say 50 passes...to be a Top 5 RB with 280 touches, he’d have to be awfully efficient.

I think a lot of people are superimposing Kareem Hunt’s rookie year on CEH...I think that 2017 team needed Hunt more than the 2020 team needs CEH, which will allow for what I think will be a more managed role.

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11 minutes ago, Gally said:

But KC is one of the best landing spot for RB's despite the middle of the pack touch numbers. 

It’s a valid point, and that’s why I didn’t say they were a bad landing spot. I said they didn’t get touches to their RBs. I think many people have an unrealistic projection of stats for CEH based on Andy Reid’s history. CEH still may do well (I don’t think he will live up to his ADP, but he will do well), but I don’t see him pulling in 60 receptions. The best part about all of this is that we will find out rather quickly and this is all meaningless. Best of luck to CEH owners out there, I hope he lives up to your expectations. I really do, it will bode well for me in the long run. 

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Just now, TheDirtyWord said:

Of course I do, but even with Checkdown Alex Smith, Hunt only caught 53 his rookie year.  So say 50 passes...to be a Top 5 RB with 280 touches, he’d have to be awfully efficient.

I think a lot of people are superimposing Kareem Hunt’s rookie year on CEH...I think that 2017 team needed Hunt more than the 2020 team needs CEH, which will allow for what I think will be a more managed role.

I agree here. I’m a math/statistic guy and the math doesn’t add up to a top finish for me. But who knows. I think it’s impossible for him to deliver on his redraft adp. Maybe he is an outlier and is amazing. That would benefit me personally so I’m all for that. 

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8 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Which is what I just said ;)

You said you didn’t think you were going to accept it, where I would snap accept Godwin straight up for CEH...anything extra is just a bonus. If you don’t think he’s already a top 10 dynasty asset, but agree Godwin is, why wouldn’t you do the same? 

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

CEH & 2021 2nd for Miles Sanders, Godwin & 2021 1st

Wowzers. Let me know if you can pull that one off. I’ll let you negotiate my future trades. 

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NFL Betting: Prop bets for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season

Excerpt:

Quote

Ben Rolfe: 1u – Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 49.5 rushing yards @ -110 (DraftKings)

The Chiefs run game has a lot of question marks surrounding it following the opt-out of Damien Williams. The current Chiefs depth chart has Edwards-Helaire listed as the top back, which should be promising for his chances of hitting the over on this line.

In 2019, the Chiefs had more than 80 rushing yards in 15 of their 19 games. Projecting which back would do the damage was tough last season, but with Williams and LeSean McCoy sharing touches, the situation in Kansas City was a lot more difficult to call.

In this matchup, they go up against a Texans team that ranked 25 and 27 in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry, respectively. At 121.1 rushing yards per game, they allowed the eighth-most yards per game on the ground in the league. With the departure of D.J. Reader, that defense may just have gotten worse as well.

 

 

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I ended up sending an offer of CEH, 2021 2nd & Mike Williams for Miles Sanders, Godwin, Keenan Allen & 2021 1st. He countered with Sanders & Allen for CEH & Hilton. I passed

Sanders, Godwin for CEH and Hilton = home run for you 

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4 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I think I'd rather see what CEH can do if I'm just swapping him for Sanders without more from his end. Yes, Godwin is obvious upgrade from Hilton

Yeah I get it. I see the upgrade from Hilton to Godwin way more than any perceived downgrade from CEH to Sanders, but my expectations are different from most. 

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Better start than I thought so far. It is just too good of a situation to slow him down. He does not have great power but his vision and lateral agility will allow him to produce in this offense. Once he gets comfortable and picks up in the passing game he will make owners real happy. 

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Just now, King of the Jungle said:

Game of matchups. You can’t cover 5 skilled people well. CEH has an easy path to success...along with enough skill to find that success. How fun is this?

Just like LSU last year.

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