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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread

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can we get back to hippos?

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1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

FBG FFA is where pretty much anyone can comprehend that an investment that grows 30% per year will grow so large that you'll retire comfortably in 20 years.

But replace years with days, and instead of it being money, it's deaths and somehow they deny what it's going to look like in 20 days.... but it's the exact same math.  

Except the spread of disease and the growth of your stock portfolio are not anything alike. Different variables that impact the growth patterns.

"The numbers that have been put out there are very frightening to people. I can tell you going back to look at Wuhan and Hubei and all of these provinces-- when they talk about 60,000 people infected, even if you said 'Alright, there's asymptomatics and all that" ... you still only get to 600,000 people out of 80,000,000. That is nowhere close to the numbers you see people putting out there. I think it has frightened the American people. I think on a model you just run full out, you can get to those numbers if you have zero controls and you do nothing. And we know that every American is doing something. So I think what our job right now is to carefully detail on a hospital by hospital, state by state and county by county basis what the needs are."

- Dr. Birx on Wednesday

In other words: You're not going to be able to do straight math on this model and come away with anything remotely accurate. 

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2 minutes ago, RnR said:

Except the spread of disease and the growth of your stock portfolio are not anything alike. Different variables that impact the growth patterns.

"The numbers that have been put out there are very frightening to people. I can tell you going back to look at Wuhan and Hubei and all of these provinces-- when they talk about 60,000 people infected, even if you said 'Alright, there's asymptomatics and all that" ... you still only get to 600,000 people out of 80,000,000. That is nowhere close to the numbers you see people putting out there. I think it has frightened the American people. I think on a model you just run full out, you can get to those numbers if you have zero controls and you do nothing. And we know that every American is doing something. So I think what our job right now is to carefully detail on a hospital by hospital, state by state and county by county basis what the needs are."

- Dr. Birx on Wednesday

In other words: You're not going to be able to do straight math on this model and come away with anything remotely accurate. 

And yet we have had week after week after week of results matching what the models predicted. 🤔

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Wife said she had to send someone home today because they were coughing up a storm at the front desk. Person wanted to still work because she thought the owners would be disappointed/mad.  

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1 minute ago, Politician Spock said:

And yet we have had week after week after week of results matching what the models predicted. 🤔

You're probably right and the doctor who has made it her life's work tracking and forecasting disease is probably wrong. Good talk.

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16 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Just to get even more doom and gloomy....the New Madrid fault is overdue for a massive earthquake that would devastate several large cities in a matter of minutes.

Those poor Spaniards.

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Wife said she had to send someone home today because they were coughing up a storm at the front desk. Person wanted to still work because she thought the owners would be disappointed/mad.  

This is more akin to a misplaced work ethic than a dumb spring breaker or a dumb church goer imo. I see this all the time at my office when it comes to colds and the flu and we're always like "appreciate that but go home".

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Doesn’t the exponential model assume people continue to randomly mix among the population?

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2 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

This is more akin to a misplaced work ethic than a dumb spring breaker or a dumb church goer imo. I see this all the time at my office when it comes to colds and the flu and we're always like "appreciate that but go home".

See my others posts- its tied in to the beliefs of the owners and them not participating in some of the suggested protocols for a vet clinic.  

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2 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Doesn’t the exponential model assume people continue to randomly mix among the population?

One of the reasons I don't like to compare it to investments where you're TRYING for exponential growth.

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

See my others posts- its tied in to the beliefs of the owners and them not participating in some of the suggested protocols for a vet clinic.  

I stand corrected. I just meant that frequently, people who want to work while sick are a little different imo than defiant kids partying even though the action itself is just as dumb.

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Just now, NorvilleBarnes said:

I stand corrected. I just meant that frequently, people who want to work while sick are a little different imo than defiant kids partying even though the action itself is just as dumb.

Oh for sure. Just frustrated it's more the leadership at her work in this case.  

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, NorvilleBarnes said:

One of the reasons I don't like to compare it to investments where you're TRYING for exponential growth.

Exactly. A more adequate financial analogy, in my mind, is telling someone if they leave their money alone in an index fund it's going to grow 30% in 20 years... and then challenging them to see if they can find a way to make as little money as possible in the market instead. That's basically what we're doing here.

Edited by RnR

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4 minutes ago, RnR said:

You're probably right and the doctor who has made it her life's work tracking and forecasting disease is probably wrong. Good talk.

Very few people who are sharing numbers in this thread have done anything that contradicts what the doctor you quoted said. She said "I think on a model you just run full out, you can get to those numbers if you have zero controls and you do nothing." When something is done, it takes weeks to see the effects that something has given the cycle this virus takes. Most people sharing numbers in this thread are staying within a few weeks in their modeling. Anything beyond that would be affected by something new being done. 

In other words, you are using that doctors quote out of context, as she is responding to models saying where we will be months from now. It's not really applicable to models that only go out a few weeks. For example, no one has modeled Italy for a while because no one new what they would be like after weeks of lockdown. We are starting to see them diverge from a model of where they would be if they had done nothing. So we can see and start to measure how the "something" they did change the model. After a couple weeks of what we are doing in the US (which has wide variation across the country and varying levels of participation) then we should see the US diverge from the model of doing nothing. Honestly, I don't expect much, given how much we suck at what we are trying to do, with the many testimonies in this thread showing how much we suck at it. I wouldn't be shocked if we don't diverge much from the "do nothing" model at all. And no, I"m not happy about that, or rooting for it. It pisses me off. 

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7 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Doesn’t the exponential model assume people continue to randomly mix among the population?

Yes, and we still are. 

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Just now, Ben Hur said:

I mean it's ready, but it seems we are struggling to get the RNA test out in sustainable quantities, I don't know for sure if mass producing antibody tests conflicts with that goal.

Iceland did a bunch of antibody testing, as have the dutch.

Cuomo seems to be hinting at waiting for that to open the economy up again. 

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5 hours ago, Clayton Gray said:

@Joe 8ryant recently warned, and I'm doing it here again. Posts about politics in this thread -- starting here -- will not be tolerated.

I’m onboard with not posting political stuff here.  

But the fact that the mods have not done a single thing about the pages and pages of bucksoh laughing emojis on some really serious and sad posts is incredible to me, and the exact opposite of “being excellent”.  They’re far more offensive than any political post in this entire thread.

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City of Austin Stay at Home Order Not Mandatory

So we need to maintain 90% social distancing or we overrun hospitals in coming months (barring unforeseen variables,) but we’re probably at 70% with a stay at home order for 3 weeks and that’s not mandatory.

Don’t see how we address this without a wartime mentality and effort. This isn’t good enough.

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4 hours ago, Nipsey said:

Went through the front door of my apartment for the first time in 14 days. Hit 3 stores for supplies. Based on what I saw I can say with reasonable certainty that we're all screwed. No chance this thing slows down any time soon. Half the people out there acting like it's just a normal summer day off from work. Store checker taking bites of a chocolate bar between guests. Why am I sheltering indoors and social distancing at the store if people are still walking around in groups while shoveling popcorn into their mouths like they're kids at the carnival? I would say chances I get the virus based on that trip alone is >10%. Out of Woodford at TJ's to boot.

No walk, no bike ride? That seems terrible for someone like you and hard to believe. 

I agree with you..."It's not fair" but because it's you I feel safe asking a few questions that won't get bent the wrong way. 

Are you upset that you have self quarantined inside? Wife and I are making short trips out but we're talking about walks around the neighborhood, bike rides at night because all the cars are tucked away as nothing is open, almost dreamy for us. Are you upset or jealous that folks are having fun? 

-Had fish tacos tonight and had a few left over shrimp from yesterday, pan grilled all that, topped with fresh salsa and avocado, delicious! 

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5 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

I’m onboard with not posting political stuff here.  

But the fact that the mods have not done a single thing about the pages and pages of bucksoh laughing emojis on some really serious and sad posts is incredible to me, and the exact opposite of “being excellent”.  They’re far more offensive than any political post in this entire thread.

I haven’t been in that thread often, but it’s usually the same five or so posters, and I bet I can guess their names. Mods should include consistent obnoxious use of the laugh emoji as a banable offense. 

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8 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

I’m onboard with not posting political stuff here.  

But the fact that the mods have not done a single thing about the pages and pages of bucksoh laughing emojis on some really serious and sad posts is incredible to me, and the exact opposite of “being excellent”.  They’re far more offensive than any political post in this entire thread.

That and accusing posters of cheering for death? 

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6 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

Honestly, I don't expect much, given how much we suck at what we are trying to do, with the many testimonies in this thread showing how much we suck at it. I wouldn't be shocked if we don't diverge much from the "do nothing" model at all. And no, I"m not happy about that, or rooting for it. It pisses me off. 

This in spades. Why people couldn’t stay home for 2 weeks starting on 3/12 (full shutdown ordered) is unbelievable. Talking about NY now. Every region is different. There are still regions that could have shut down 7 days ago with only a few cases that could be coming out the other side and not be decimated.

”What is it about stay at home do you not understand?”

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6 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

No walk, no bike ride? That seems terrible for someone like you and hard to believe. 

I agree with you..."It's not fair" but because it's you I feel safe asking a few questions that won't get bent the wrong way. 

Are you upset that you have self quarantined inside? Wife and I are making short trips out but we're talking about walks around the neighborhood, bike rides at night because all the cars are tucked away as nothing is open, almost dreamy for us. Are you upset or jealous that folks are having fun? 

-Had fish tacos tonight and had a few left over shrimp from yesterday, pan grilled all that, topped with fresh salsa and avocado, delicious! 

Going for a walk is ok.

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9 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

No walk, no bike ride? That seems terrible for someone like you and hard to believe. 

I agree with you..."It's not fair" but because it's you I feel safe asking a few questions that won't get bent the wrong way. 

Are you upset that you have self quarantined inside? Wife and I are making short trips out but we're talking about walks around the neighborhood, bike rides at night because all the cars are tucked away as nothing is open, almost dreamy for us. Are you upset or jealous that folks are having fun? 

-Had fish tacos tonight and had a few left over shrimp from yesterday, pan grilled all that, topped with fresh salsa and avocado, delicious! 

Not even to throw the trash out. Avoiding the elevator so have to go down multiple hallways/stairways to get the street/garage. When I went out today I wrapped a big piece of Glad cling-wrap around my left hand. Opened all the doors with that. Car was sitting there so long was nervous it wouldn't start. Then almost got into an accident on Wilshire trying to see if there was a line at Ralph's.

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1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

Natural disasters eventually do happen.

The one that will happen again eventually, which i swear I hope never happens in my lifetime (or my kids) is a Coronal Mass Ejection. The last one happened in 1859, and many scientists say we are overdue for the next one. The one in 1859 destroyed a lot of the electronic equipment that existed at the time, which were basically just telegraph polls and such. I can only imagine what it would wipe out in today's age, and how it would affect us given our reliance on so much electronics. I would want a gun for this one, only so I could shoot myself ASAP. 

JFC. Like I need something else to worry about right now.

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24 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yes, and we still are. 

I mean not really. Many people have stopped traveling. Many have stopped congregating. Many people are only mostly seeing the same small group of people. At lest where I’m at. 
 

Do you believe that extreme social distancing is doing NOTHING?

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1 minute ago, Nipsey said:
15 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

No walk, no bike ride? That seems terrible for someone like you and hard to believe. 

I agree with you..."It's not fair" but because it's you I feel safe asking a few questions that won't get bent the wrong way. 

Are you upset that you have self quarantined inside? Wife and I are making short trips out but we're talking about walks around the neighborhood, bike rides at night because all the cars are tucked away as nothing is open, almost dreamy for us. Are you upset or jealous that folks are having fun? 

-Had fish tacos tonight and had a few left over shrimp from yesterday, pan grilled all that, topped with fresh salsa and avocado, delicious! 

Not even to throw the trash out. Avoiding the elevator so have to go down multiple hallways/stairways to get the street/garage. When I went out today I wrapped a big piece of Glad cling-wrap around my left hand. Opened all the doors with that. Car was sitting there so long was nervous it wouldn't start. Then almost got into an accident on Wilshire trying to see if there was a line at Ralph's.

There's a big difference in how people in an apartment complex and people in a suburban neighborhood can maintain physical distancing.

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2 hours ago, Man In The Box said:

Yeah it’s bad here. Just checked again. It’s 1206 positive here. Scary times. 

And my grandmother, who lives there, won’t stop going to the grocery store

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Just now, mr roboto said:
26 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yes, and we still are. 

I mean not really. Many people have stopped traveling. Many have stopped congregating. Many people are only mostly seeing the same small group of people. At lest where I’m at. 
 

Do you believe that extreme social distancing is doing NOTHING?

Of course it does. But many people haven't stopped congregating and aren't practicing anything close to extreme distancing.

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1 minute ago, Clayton Gray said:

Of course it does. But many people haven't stopped congregating and aren't practicing anything close to extreme distancing.

Ok. I get it. 
 

So is there a projection that factors in somewhat incomplete social distancing?

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1 minute ago, Clayton Gray said:
4 minutes ago, Nipsey said:
18 minutes ago, Ministry of Pain said:

No walk, no bike ride? That seems terrible for someone like you and hard to believe. 

I agree with you..."It's not fair" but because it's you I feel safe asking a few questions that won't get bent the wrong way. 

Are you upset that you have self quarantined inside? Wife and I are making short trips out but we're talking about walks around the neighborhood, bike rides at night because all the cars are tucked away as nothing is open, almost dreamy for us. Are you upset or jealous that folks are having fun? 

-Had fish tacos tonight and had a few left over shrimp from yesterday, pan grilled all that, topped with fresh salsa and avocado, delicious! 

Not even to throw the trash out. Avoiding the elevator so have to go down multiple hallways/stairways to get the street/garage. When I went out today I wrapped a big piece of Glad cling-wrap around my left hand. Opened all the doors with that. Car was sitting there so long was nervous it wouldn't start. Then almost got into an accident on Wilshire trying to see if there was a line at Ralph's.

There's a big difference in how people in an apartment complex and people in a suburban neighborhood can maintain physical distancing.

We’re on day 13 here in the 993 household. Have only left to go to the store and stock up once.  But daily walks with the kid and dog are happening as well as usually one bike ride too.  Its completely surreal but the family time is nice too. 

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3 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Ok. I get it. 
 

So is there a projection that factors in somewhat incomplete social distancing?

It's the do nothing model with a slight deviation. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

It's the do nothing model with a slight deviation. 

See I’m not totally sure I buy this. 
 

im in the ‘we should do everything the experts say’ camp. Honestly. But I also don’t wanna run some exponential projection like nothing has changed. 

Edited by mr roboto

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Posted (edited)

It's going to get really bad here in SE Michigan. We look headed down a similar path as NY but because we weren't one of the first areas to get infected, we aren't getting much attention or supplies. Our Governor and all our members of Congress sent a letter to Mike Pence asking him to intervene to help Michigan is getting only a fraction of the supplies we are requesting.  We also already have hospitals closing their ER due to no more room or staff to serve them. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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To be fair to New Yorkers who have botched this up for the rest of the country, it probably was a lot easier for people who live in 3000 sq ft suburban homes, where doing anything away from home requires a car ride, to quickly change to the stay at home lifestyle, than it was for those who live in 200 sq ft apartments and anything you could think of possibly doing is either a few blocks walk, or a short subway ride away. 

But still, you should have changed. 

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1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

Natural disasters eventually do happen.

The one that will happen again eventually, which i swear I hope never happens in my lifetime (or my kids) is a Coronal Mass Ejection. The last one happened in 1859, and many scientists say we are overdue for the next one. The one in 1859 destroyed a lot of the electronic equipment that existed at the time, which were basically just telegraph polls and such. I can only imagine what it would wipe out in today's age, and how it would affect us given our reliance on so much electronics. I would want a gun for this one, only so I could shoot myself ASAP. 

There have been several geomagnetic storms since the Carrington Event in 1859.  Notably, there was a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that knocked out power in Quebec for 9 hours in 1989.  There were also the 2003 Halloween solar storms, another CME event.  Could a really, really bad CME cripple an electrical grid somewhere?  Probably.  But they happen a lot more than you think and without major incident.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

There have been several geomagnetic storms since the Carrington Event in 1859.  Notably, there was a geomagnetic storm caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that knocked out power in Quebec for 9 hours in 1989.  There were also the 2003 Halloween solar storms, another CME event.  Could a really, really bad CME cripple an electrical grid somewhere?  Probably.  But they happen a lot more than you think and without major incident.

There was one in 2012 that missed us by 9 days. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Politician Spock said:

Natural disasters eventually do happen.

The one that will happen again eventually, which i swear I hope never happens in my lifetime (or my kids) is a Coronal Mass Ejection. The last one happened in 1859, and many scientists say we are overdue for the next one. The one in 1859 destroyed a lot of the electronic equipment that existed at the time, which were basically just telegraph polls and such. I can only imagine what it would wipe out in today's age, and how it would affect us given our reliance on so much electronics. I would want a gun for this one, only so I could shoot myself ASAP. 

Actually, there have been several CMEs through the years since, but fortunately they are typically much smaller in scale than the 1859 event.  There was another CME in 2012 of a similar scale of the 1859 event, but fortunately it was not directed toward earth.  

 

ETA...I see the conversation continued above...

Edited by Galileo

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11 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

To be fair to New Yorkers who have botched this up for the rest of the country, it probably was a lot easier for people who live in 3000 sq ft suburban homes, where doing anything away from home requires a car ride, to quickly change to the stay at home lifestyle, than it was for those who live in 200 sq ft apartments and anything you could think of possibly doing is either a few blocks walk, or a short subway ride away. 

But still, you should have changed. 

And there it is. I knew you had an agenda. 

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4 minutes ago, tamales said:

And there it is. I knew you had an agenda. 

 

"People should be socially distancing and anyone disregarding that is putting themselves and others in danger" has been almost everyone's agenda in this thread. 

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11 minutes ago, Politician Spock said:

To be fair to New Yorkers who have botched this up for the rest of the country, it probably was a lot easier for people who live in 3000 sq ft suburban homes, where doing anything away from home requires a car ride, to quickly change to the stay at home lifestyle, than it was for those who live in 200 sq ft apartments and anything you could think of possibly doing is either a few blocks walk, or a short subway ride away. 

But still, you should have changed. 

This is not really something you can blame on NYers. I think the real blame lies with our government that ignored the lessons of China which involved massive testing, tracing and isolation of infected.  The WHO says lockdowns have little impact and testing and tracing is only way to stop it. We are still not in a position to do proper testing and has spread so widely tracing is basically impossible. 

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1 minute ago, tamales said:

And there it is. I knew you had an agenda. 

I've never hidden my anger at how poorly New Yorkers have responded to this crisis. 

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Just now, Politician Spock said:

I've never hidden my anger at how poorly New Yorkers have responded to this crisis. 

Not sure you have any idea what is going on in NY. 

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1 minute ago, Redwes25 said:

This is not really something you can blame on NYers. I think the real blame lies with our government that ignored the lessons of China which involved massive testing, tracing and isolation of infected.  The WHO says lockdowns have little impact and testing and tracing is only way to stop it. We are still not in a position to do proper testing and has spread so widely tracing is basically impossible. 

Can't blame politicians in this thread. 

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Just now, Redwes25 said:

Not sure you have any idea what is going on in NY. 

55% of all US cases are in the NYC/Westchester County/Nassau County/Bergen County area. 

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

I've been out of the house for errands (ignoring running in the morning, by myself) three times in the past two weeks.  That's more than you, but way less than the average person.  Also, I'm highly introverted and ideally suited for a "safer at home" period.  I found my trips out to be strangely disorienting.  It's just weird to be driving around in broad daylight with other people, and strange to be in stores with other people around.  I would say that I've reacted fairly well to this whole situation mentally, but my reaction to being in public spaces makes me wonder if that's really the case or not.

It definitely was surreal to be in Trader Joe's with half the people wearing gloves and masks while Queen's "Keep Yourself Alive" played over the sound system. The whole letting in only a certain number of people at a time was pretty great though. First time I've ever been in that store and it didn't feel jammed.

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