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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (16 Viewers)

Mr Anonymous said:
Piggybacking off this. Anyone know what group of people has the highest rates of Vitamin D deficiency?

A Twitter thread on Covid-19 and Nursing Homes

Key takeways, a vast percentage of the Covid-19 deaths from the past two weeks are from nursing homes. Looks like the hardest hit states are reporting 50%+ of the deaths as coming from nursing homes and the percentage is rapidly rising. Some states reported deaths in the past week represent as much as 80% of their most recent Covid-19 deaths. The high amount of layoffs at nursing homes due to shutdowns contributed to the spike in nursing home deaths.

New York and Michigan are not disclosing the percentage of their deaths that are from nursing homes but you can safely assume it's over 50%

In the end, well over half of the US deaths from Covid-19 appear likely to come from a population of people that post the following statistic in non-pandemic times...

So as sad as this is, this is a population of people of which 2/3rds die in normal times within the first year of their stay in a nursing home. Instead of shutting everything down, it appears as though we would have been much better served directing a crap ton of resources to nursing homes if we really wanted to save the most lives. Rather the shutdown led to these care facilities laying off 113,100 workers. That turned out to be massively counterproductive.

So anyone suggesting that a 2nd round of shutdowns will be necessary, you might want to think long and hard about what would actually be effective if we have to deal with another wave. And remember, the vast majority of the deaths being added to the US total in the past 2 weeks is coming from nursing homes. Maybe that's where we should have been focused the whole time.
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The shut down wasn't the mistake IMO.  The mistake was thinking that ALL we needed to do was shut down.  The shut down is useless if you don't put the time to good use.  Some states did that:

- NY's shut down clearly kept hospitals from being overwhelmed 

- MA's shut down enabled them to stand up a contact tracing program

- CA's shutdown enabled them to develop a comprehensive business re-opening strategy

- the near-national shutdown enabled every state to learn more about the virus, develop relevant communication strategies, and prepare their hospitals

- the shutdown also enabled hospitals to develop care strategies from the lessons learned by others

So, given what we know and did, should there have been a shutdown? Yeah, I do.  

Now, do I think that the shutdown could have been put to better use? Damn right I do.

Do I think we'll find that some states wasted that time doing little/nothing?  Sadly, I do.

Do I think there will be another shutdown? No, I do not...nor do I think there should be given what we know now. But again, doesn't mean the original shutdown was wrong.

And lastly, I will counter your: 60% of these people were going to die within the next 12 months anyway with the below.

A large majority of these shuttered businesses (restaurants, bars, salons, etc.) were going to struggle mightily even without a shutdown. The economy was still going to tank during the pandemic regardless.  Unemployment was going to rise precipitously whether we shut down or not.  In other words, it's a false choice.

 
Morton Muffley said:
The shut down wasn't the mistake IMO.  The mistake was thinking that ALL we needed to do was shut down.  The shut down is useless if you don't put the time to good use. 
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I mostly agree with this. I do think the shutdowns should have been shorter but provided they used the time to focus resources where needed. It turns out that the shutdown took away resources from the places that are going to wind up having over 50% of the deaths. I now agree with the shutdown only to the extent that it was needed as a time buyer to figure out what this was and how best to deal with it. In a perfect world, and with better knowledge, it turns out a shutdown might have been unnecessary if we knew exactly where and how to respond. Of course we didn't have that clarity so the shutdown was needed.

However, going forward, this knowledge we work with now, makes it pretty clear there should not be another shutdown if any further waves hit. The elderly and vulnerable are the ones who have to be provided with resources and precaution.

 
toshiba said:
Facts should never get in the way of an good conspiracy theory!
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What conspiracy theory? I thanked BobbyLayne for providing what was missing from the data collected in that Twitter thread. There's zero conspiracy that nursing homes deaths are now crossing over the 50% threshold for total deaths in the hardest hit states.

What exactly are you driving at toshiba? These are factual numbers. And they bring us right back to where we were prior to the shutdown. Which is that the elderly and vulnerable should have been the focus of the response.

Some awfully weird agendas here to keep the fear alive.

 
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Mr Anonymous said:
What conspiracy theory? I thanked BobbyLayne for providing what was missing from the data collected in that Twitter thread. There's zero conspiracy that nursing homes deaths are now crossing over the 50% threshold for total deaths in the hardest hit states.

What exactly are you driving at toshiba? These are factual numbers. And they bring us right back to where we were prior to the shutdown. Which is that the elderly and vulnerable should have been the focus of the response.
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Honestly I stopped tracking numbers awhile back but was able to find this quickly.

Of the nation’s more than 25,000 coronavirus deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, more than a fifth of them — about 5,300 — are in New York, according to a count by The Associated Press, and the toll has been increasing by an average of 20 to 25 deaths a day for the past few weeks.

Pretty sure that’s less than 50% but somebody else will come along to confirm. I’m gonna go watch a sunset.

 
Alright then, I guess this won't be a legitimate discussion. That's cool, keep talking about the impending doom of wave 2, how the shutdowns shouldn't have been lifted, and definitely don't talk about how striking these nursing home totals are, nor how the shutdown itself helped drive those nursing home deaths.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Alright then, I guess this won't be a legitimate discussion. That's cool, keep talking about the impending doom of wave 2, how the shutdowns shouldn't have been lifted, and definitely don't talk about how striking these nursing home totals are, nor how the shutdown itself helped drive those nursing home deaths.
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Even if you’re right, deaths aren’t the only thing that matters. We still don’t even understand what the long term damages are to people that recover. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
Honestly I stopped tracking numbers awhile back but was able to find this quickly.

Of the nation’s more than 25,000 coronavirus deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities, more than a fifth of them — about 5,300 — are in New York, according to a count by The Associated Press, and the toll has been increasing by an average of 20 to 25 deaths a day for the past few weeks.

Pretty sure that’s less than 50% but somebody else will come along to confirm. I’m gonna go watch a sunset.
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NY state is fairly low at 20%, and Mich is at 5%, but its a big problem elsewhere.

Here is a NYT article from a few days ago that shows many states > 50% nursing home deaths.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

MA 58%

PA 66%

Col 58%

VA 57%

NC 57%

RI 69%

KY 55%

DEL 64%

KA 51%

OR 55%

WV 81%

VT 54%

MD 50%

Another 10 in the 40% range.

 
Coach Morris Buttermaker said:
NY state is fairly low at 20%, and Mich is at 5%, but its a big problem elsewhere.
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Knock me over with a feather if the final tallies in those 2 states are that low. If I'm not mistaken, there's some discrepancy as to how these states are assigning nursing homes deaths. It has to do with being transported to the hospital to die and how some states count that as a nursing home death and others don't. Not 100% clear on that but it's a possible explanation as to why those two states nursing home death totals are so far out of whack from everyone else. Like everything else, we'll find out eventually.

 
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Covid worldometers -   89,000 new cases; over 4,200 deaths.  Russia, Brazil, rinse, repeat.  25% jump in cases (on low numbers) in Paraguay.  If Russia's numbers keep growing at 10K a day, they'll pass Italy and the U.K. in a few days and Spain in about a week.

 
tri-man 47 said:
Covid worldometers -   89,000 new cases; over 4,200 deaths.  Russia, Brazil, rinse, repeat.  25% jump in cases (on low numbers) in Paraguay.  If Russia's numbers keep growing at 10K a day, they'll pass Italy and the U.K. in a few days and Spain in about a week.
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Let's run through deaths by continent (yes, I know Oceania is not a continent):

North America - 89,054 deaths / pop 368,869,647 = 241 deaths per million
Europe - 151,971 deaths / 747,571,332 = 203 deaths per million
South America - 15,400 deaths / pop 430,239,925 = 36 deaths per million
Asia - 21,907 deaths / 4,635,255,719 = 5 deaths per million
Oceania - 118 deaths / pop 42,677,813 = 3 deaths per million
Africa - 2,232 deaths / pop 1,335,622,799 = 2 deaths per million

What's wrong with this picture?

 
I imagine those numbers trend by life expectancy. People in North America and Europe live longer, and therefore a virus that preys on the elderly would kill them at a higher rate. 

 
TheWinz said:
Let's run through deaths by continent (yes, I know Oceania is not a continent):

North America - 89,054 deaths / pop 368,869,647 = 241 deaths per million
Europe - 151,971 deaths / 747,571,332 = 203 deaths per million
South America - 15,400 deaths / pop 430,239,925 = 36 deaths per million
Asia - 21,907 deaths / 4,635,255,719 = 5 deaths per million
Oceania - 118 deaths / pop 42,677,813 = 3 deaths per million
Africa - 2,232 deaths / pop 1,335,622,799 = 2 deaths per million

What's wrong with this picture?
Click to expand...
Your numbers for North America are off by over 100 million...

 
TheWinz said:
Let's run through deaths by continent (yes, I know Oceania is not a continent):

North America - 89,054 deaths / pop 368,869,647 = 241 deaths per million
Europe - 151,971 deaths / 747,571,332 = 203 deaths per million
South America - 15,400 deaths / pop 430,239,925 = 36 deaths per million
Asia - 21,907 deaths / 4,635,255,719 = 5 deaths per million
Oceania - 118 deaths / pop 42,677,813 = 3 deaths per million
Africa - 2,232 deaths / pop 1,335,622,799 = 2 deaths per million

What's wrong with this picture?
Click to expand...
Horrible analysis. 368 million people have not been exposed. That's what's wrong with your picture.

Huckabee showing his stupidity. 'look at GA and FL, they have opened up and their numbers are dropping'. That takes a special kind of stupidity to think that you immediately show symptoms. Lets see in a couple of weeks what the numbers are there. He could be right but he has no idea yet.

See South Korea. Seoul shut down nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of infections were linked to people who went out last weekend as the country relaxed social distancing. Many of the infections were connected to a 29-year-old man who visited three nightclubs before testing positive.

One person.

 
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MTskibum said:
Good stuff, thanks. Now I just need another independent study that says the same thing.
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I do believe there is something to this because vitamin D deficiency in general is very bad for your immune system. Most people in the western world are not getting enough vitamin D due to how much time we spend indoors though so it’s not like we have a control group unless maybe that’s why it hasn’t been as bad in as far as deaths per capita in Asia and Africa?

We also now know that the virus mutated in Europe. That strain is more common on the East Cost where the one on the West came from China. 
 

The hardest part about all of this is we is don’t have enough information at this point. About any of this. This is why we need more testing. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Remarkable that 1 in 5 American workers has filed for unemployment in the past 8 weeks, and today there was an unemployment report that is the worst since the Great Depression, and markets are rallying. This can be read a multitude of ways, one being investors think the worst is behind us. Another is that we’ve built a system that could give a #### about the bottom half. Wall Street seems to be saying let them live off the dole and struggle to survive, as long as we further consolidate around corporations. Bigger, less competition, more power to management and executives, and less to the worker. However you see it, it’s a commentary on modern American life.
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If I were an investor or on the board of directors, I would ask how the company is making adjustments to continue to do business during the coronavirus pandemic.  One has got to be proactive to protect the company as well as its employees and just waiting for things to return to normal is not too smart.

 
CR69 said:
I do believe there is something to this because vitamin D deficiency in general is very bad for your immune system. Most people in the western world are not getting enough vitamin D due to how much time we spend indoors though so it’s not like we have a control group unless maybe that’s why it hasn’t been as bad in as far as deaths per capita in Asia and Africa?

We also now know that the virus mutated in Europe. That strain is more common on the East Cost where the one on the West came from China. 
 

The hardest part about all of this is we is don’t have enough information at this point. About any of this. This is why we need more testing. 
Click to expand...
How does more testing get you these answers? Unless you mean different tests than positive/negative for covid. 

 
14 days turning into 21 turning into 28. Soon it will be "just wait for this fall/winter".

We've got CNN now using breaking news headlines about 1 new case in Wuhan. Yes, you read that right, 1 new case.

It's still out there and obviously will circulate for some time. We know enough now how to proceed going forward and the focus should be on the health compromised and the elderly. How to protect them and what everyone else can do to shield them.

 
I’ve also been thinking about TN “opening up” 

Let’s be honest, it really hasn’t happened yet.  Yes, more people are out, some people are socializing, more stores are open...but is TN open?  Not even close.

The indoor malls are empty, churches empty, movie theaters empty, restaurants half full at best. No one is on planes, the downtown area in Nashville is a shell of itself, no sports, no concerts, no springtime festivals..

So perhaps this half opening can happen and keep the R0 under 1 and further drive down the active cases.  We shall see.

 
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lod001 said:
Horrible analysis. 368 million people have not been exposed. That's what's wrong with your picture.

Huckabee showing his stupidity. 'look at GA and FL, they have opened up and their numbers are dropping'. That takes a special kind of stupidity to think that you immediately show symptoms. Lets see in a couple of weeks what the numbers are there. He could be right but he has no idea yet.

See South Korea. Seoul shut down nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of infections were linked to people who went out last weekend as the country relaxed social distancing. Many of the infections were connected to a 29-year-old man who visited three nightclubs before testing positive.

One person.
Click to expand...
This situation is interesting to me on a lot of levels. 

But most importantly it shows yet again why we would never be able to do what south korea does. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
14 days turning into 21 turning into 28. Soon it will be "just wait for this fall/winter".

We've got CNN now using breaking news headlines about 1 new case in Wuhan. Yes, you read that right, 1 new case.

It's still out there and obviously will circulate for some time. We know enough now how to proceed going forward and the focus should be on the health compromised and the elderly. How to protect them and what everyone else can do to shield them.
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CNN is awful. They just fan the flames. 

The narrative needs to change very soon. 

 
Rohn Jambo said:
The media thinks they can build a larger audience by being more tabloid like and polarizing but that is exactly how they are driving themselves out of business.  
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I don't get it either. I can't find it right now, but I saw a chart recently that showed that viewer interest in anything "Covid-19" peaked weeks ago and has been on a steady decline. Corona fatigue is real. I know I'm mentally exhausted hearing about it 24/7 for months. Not to mention the relentless negative news cycle exacerbates anxiety and depression for those who have history. I guess the model of "if it bleeds it leads" just keeps perpetuating, but if viewership is burned out, or being negatively impacted mentally, it seems self defeating. 

 
ericttspikes said:
I don't get it either. I can't find it right now, but I saw a chart recently that showed that viewer interest in anything "Covid-19" peaked weeks ago and has been on a steady decline. Corona fatigue is real. I know I'm mentally exhausted hearing about it 24/7 for months. Not to mention the relentless negative news cycle exacerbates anxiety and depression for those who have history. I guess the model of "if it bleeds it leads" just keeps perpetuating, but if viewership is burned out, or being negatively impacted mentally, it seems self defeating. 
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What else can they talk about?  Sports? No. Economy?  I think most would rather hear about the disease. Celebrity stuff?  No thanks. 
 

It’s the biggest story since 9/11. 

 
bigmarc27 said:
What else can they talk about?  Sports? No. Economy?  I think most would rather hear about the disease. Celebrity stuff?  No thanks. 
 

It’s the biggest story since 9/11. 
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There is plenty of other things going on in the world to report on. My local sports radio station still talks sports. I don't follow celebrities, but I'm sure TMZ isn't "Virus 24/7", maybe they are.

Yes, it's kind of like the 9/11 panic. Like when the news said to gather duct tape and seal all your windows which made people fear their local town in BFE would soon be a terrorist target.

From a CNN story 2-2003

A Lowe's hardware store in Alexandria, Virginia, said every roll of duct tape has been sold. Another Alexandria Home Depot store reported sales of duct tape tripled overnight.

"Everything that was on that newscast, we are selling a lot of it," said Rich Pierce with a Home Depot in the D.C. area.

 
shader said:
I’ve also been thinking about TN “opening up” 

Let’s be honest, it really hasn’t happened yet.  Yes, more people are out, some people are socializing, more stores are open...but is TN open?  Not even close.

The indoor malls are empty, churches empty, movie theaters empty, restaurants half full at best. No one is on planes, the downtown area in Nashville is a shell of itself, no sports, no concerts, no springtime festivals..

So perhaps this half opening can happen and keep the R0 under 1 and further drive down the active cases.  We shall see.
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I think that's pretty much where society's expectations have moved to. We've reached an acceptable level of spread. As long as we can keep adding activities without disproportionally adding to the spread, then society will be willing to accept it.

 
Gym opens Tuesday! 

How many people would stay away? 

I'm probably just hitting the pool, but I'm not sure if I'll even do that quite yet.

 
bigmarc27 said:
What else can they talk about?  Sports? No. Economy?  I think most would rather hear about the disease. Celebrity stuff?  No thanks. 
 

It’s the biggest story since 9/11. 
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At work around that time (Army plans and operations then) we used to talk about the worst case scenario for our country. Bioterrorism was easily #1. 

Not saying that happened, not saying it won't.

 
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ericttspikes said:
I suffer from anxiety and depression and have simply unplugged from all "news" for my well being. I just assume most of the doom, score boarding and death porn here is a reflection of the national media, not just CNN. Could be wrong.
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There’s little doom and death porn here.  

 
[scooter] said:
I think that's pretty much where society's expectations have moved to. We've reached an acceptable level of spread. As long as we can keep adding activities without disproportionally adding to the spread, then society will be willing to accept it.
Click to expand...
Well we haven’t reached it yet.  We think we have reached it.  What we have now is the result of 2 months of “quarantine”

 
ericttspikes said:
I don't get it either. I can't find it right now, but I saw a chart recently that showed that viewer interest in anything "Covid-19" peaked weeks ago and has been on a steady decline. Corona fatigue is real. I know I'm mentally exhausted hearing about it 24/7 for months. Not to mention the relentless negative news cycle exacerbates anxiety and depression for those who have history. I guess the model of "if it bleeds it leads" just keeps perpetuating, but if viewership is burned out, or being negatively impacted mentally, it seems self defeating. 
Click to expand...
They should think very hard about what product they are really selling.

 
US coronavirus deaths:

10 wks ago: 1 death

9 wks ago: 19 deaths

8 wks ago: 58 deaths

7 wks ago: 323 deaths

6 wks ago: 2,043 deaths

5 wks ago: 8,488 deaths

4 wks ago: 20,604 deaths

3 wks ago: 38,903 deaths

2 wks ago: 53,789 deaths

1 wk ago: 66,369 deaths

Right now: 78,794 deaths

 
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