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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (6 Viewers)

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Are you sure?  I know three people who work in hospitals, two in NJ and one in Brooklyn (I think?), and my impression from them is they're swamped.  All I've heard is that they've reassigned doctors and nurses from all other departments to help deal with all the COVID cases, etc.  Haven't witnessed it myself obviously but have no reason to doubt them - curious where the disconnect is. 
They've reassigned them because nobody is going to ER for anything else and there are no elective procedures

 
Are you sure?  I know three people who work in hospitals, two in NJ and one in Brooklyn (I think?), and my impression from them is they're swamped.  All I've heard is that they've reassigned doctors and nurses from all other departments to help deal with all the COVID cases, etc.  Haven't witnessed it myself obviously but have no reason to doubt them - curious where the disconnect is. 
All the conspiracy sites say hospitals are empty.  

 
All the conspiracy sites say hospitals are empty.  
Is this a conspiracy site Mr "I never bash positive news"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/most-us-hospitals-are-empty-soon-they-might-closed-good-opinion-1500028%3famp=1

What about this one?

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/03/facebook-posts/hospital-beds-being-kept-empty-prepare-covid-influ/

There are hospitals with significant numbers of empty beds, but that’s because they are canceling non-urgent surgeries and other procedures in an effort to free up bed space for an expected influx of coronavirus patients. The COVID-19 outbreak is real.

 
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It's real, alright.  Covid worldometers showing over 96,000 new cases and almost 5,600 deaths.  These are both high numbers.  U.S. with 29,500 new cases.  Russia (11,200) and Brazil (9,100) still charging along.  The world's reported case count should surpass 4 million tomorrow.

 
Is this a conspiracy site Mr "I never bash positive news"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/most-us-hospitals-are-empty-soon-they-might-closed-good-opinion-1500028%3famp=1

What about this one?

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/03/facebook-posts/hospital-beds-being-kept-empty-prepare-covid-influ/

There are hospitals with significant numbers of empty beds, but that’s because they are canceling non-urgent surgeries and other procedures in an effort to free up bed space for an expected influx of coronavirus patients. The COVID-19 outbreak is real.
I have no dog in your fight, but the first article is an opinion piece written by a guy named Rick Jackson, who is.....[checks Google]....the CEO of a hospital staffing company. :mellow:

 
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They've reassigned them because nobody is going to ER for anything else and there are no elective procedures
I'm talking about pediatric nurses and stuff.  Surely humans are still having babies.  The implication (to me) was that they're being reassigned because the existing staff were unable to handle the pandemic; it's all hands on deck to deal with COVID, it's not a matter of them just having nothing to do in the other areas of the hospital. 

There are hospitals with significant numbers of empty beds, but that’s because they are canceling non-urgent surgeries and other procedures in an effort to free up bed space for an expected influx of coronavirus patients. The COVID-19 outbreak is real.
Well that paints an entirely different picture than this:

Hospitals nearly empty. So why we still locked in here?
Sounds like you answered your own question - you're still locked in because the hospitals aren't empty, they're flooded with the COVID-19 outbreak. 

 
I'm talking about pediatric nurses and stuff.  Surely humans are still having babies.  The implication (to me) was that they're being reassigned because the existing staff were unable to handle the pandemic; it's all hands on deck to deal with COVID, it's not a matter of them just having nothing to do in the other areas of the hospital. 

Well that paints an entirely different picture than this:

Sounds like you answered your own question - you're still locked in because the hospitals aren't empty, they're flooded with the COVID-19 outbreak. 
I never said there were no covid patients in hospitals but they're definitely not flooded with them. 

 
It's real, alright.  Covid worldometers showing over 96,000 new cases and almost 5,600 deaths.  These are both high numbers.  U.S. with 29,500 new cases.  Russia (11,200) and Brazil (9,100) still charging along.  The world's reported case count should surpass 4 million tomorrow.
International travel is screwed for a long time 

 
Thank you for sharing. 

If you had to guess, what % of people who should be going to the ER due to serious medical condition are choosing not to go due to covid?  Would you put that at 1%, 10%, 40%, or 75%. Just curious about a guess here.
Really hard to say - depends how you define "serious medical condition".   Example: I used to see several people a shift with vomiting / diarrhea. When they come in, i can give fluids and meds and make them feel massively better in a couple hours.  The vast majority of these patients would eventually feel ok in a couple days if they hadn't come in.  Are these visits "unnecessary"?  I don't know, depends how you look at it.  Going to work next day vs having to call in  for 2 days?  That's huge to people who live paycheck  to paycheck.   I guess they could have gone to an urgent care, but frankly urgent cares can sometimes be really bad, I get a lot of bounceback misses from urgent cares.  

A small % of these dehydrated patients have  kidney failure and need to be admitted.  Presumably those people are still coming in eventually, because they aren't recovering at home. Presumably some of the people I see early in the illness have their kidney failure prevented by me giving them fluids.  The earlier these people  are hydrated the quicker they recover in the  hospital  So bottom line, is I'm just pointing out that it's really a complex question that you are asking.  That said, a stab in the dark is 25%?

I've had at least 2 or 3 people who died of non-covid issues that I think would have lived if they came in earlier.  I don't follow up on the charts or hear the outcome of everyone I admit, so I'm sure the real number is much higher.   They might be  part of the excess deaths that everyone is arguing about (with no actual factual knowledge btw) in the other thread 

What I do reject categorically is the crazy right wingers arguing that nursing home people who die of covid shouldn't count because "they would have died soon anyway".  What a ridiculous heartless argument 

 
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I have mixed feelings about opening up.   I have seen an uptick over the last week in cases, but that's anecdotal.  On the other hand, I don''t think it's practical to stay totally closed indefinitely for economic reasons.    If more people come in, I'll treat 'em.  If the numbers go up, we increase staffing.  The PPE situation is far from ideal,  but it is better than it was.  But i say this as a front line doc, not as a public health official.  The rush to open is clearly going to kill tens of thousands of people.  That's not politics, just facts.

The two things that infuriate me is first - the anti-mask crusaders - the masks in public protect other people, not so much you.  But if everyone wears a mask, then everyone is much better protected.  I mean, we are all in this together.     The pictures of nutjobs with the AR-15s don't infuriate me because they are right wing nutjobs.  They infuriate me because they stand in front of police without a mask yelling at them, endangering their lives.   Then they stand around for hours protesting together not wearing a mask because american excellence is their protection or some other misguided idiocy..

The second thing is that when these ###-hats come to my ER in 2 weeks I have a small risk to my life intubating  them, for a dumb choice they made.  I frankly never considered that aspect too much, in that it's a part of what I signed up for becoming a doctor, but I had to admit one of my friends and ICU doctor colleagues to his  own  ICU two nights ago and  I'm still depressed about it and frankly a little bit anxious about it happening to me too

 
It has been awhile since I shared in this thread. Needed a break from the Covid stuff.

An update from over here in The Netherlands …

In terms of new daily cases as well as daily fatalities, the stats continue to trend in a positive direction. There is a large consensus that we are well beyond the peak. Hospital admissions and ICU bed usage are currently at the level they were before this whole thing blew up. Testing is being applied to a wider group of people and is projected to be available for any of the 17 million Dutch people who desire it as of 1 June.

The first phase “re-opening” plans were presented yesterday. Here are the highlights:

Basis Rules

  • Maintain 1.5 meters distance between each other at all times
  • Avoid busy & congested places
  • Work from home as much as possible
  • Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands
  • If you have cold symptoms, stay home. If you have a cough or fever keep all in that house at home
Per 11 May the following things can start up again

  • Contact professions - Barbers, beauticians, acupuncturists, etc
  • Libraries
  • Elementary schools and special education
  • Organized outdoor sport activities
Per 1 June the following things can start up again

  • Movie theaters - Max 30 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 30 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 30 people
  • High Schools
  • From this moment forward, masks are mandatory when using public transportation
Per 1 July the following things can start up again

  • Camp grounds and vacation parks
  • Movie theaters - Max 100 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 100 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 100 people
  • Organized group activities - Max 100 people
Per 1 September the following things can start up again

  • All sport activities including professional soccer
  • Saunas
  • Sex workers
  • Coffee shops
  • Casinos
It is still unclear when large scale events like concerts can resume.

Businesses can start to re-open as of 1 June based on protocols that they agree on within their sectors. Basic Rules need to be adhered to.

The scientist people over here speak of when, not if, a 2nd wave will hit.

Hope this helps. Be well and stay health!
Interesting and helpful perspective.  Truly, thanks for sharing this.

I intend to visit sometime after September 1.

 
I have mixed feelings about opening up.   I have seen an uptick over the last week in cases, but that's anecdotal.  On the other hand, I don''t think it's practical to stay totally closed indefinitely for economic reasons.    If more people come in, I'll treat 'em.  If the numbers go up, we increase staffing.  The PPE situation is far from ideal,  but it is better than it was.  But i say this as a front line doc, not as a public health official.  The rush to open is clearly going to kill tens of thousands of people.  That's not politics, just facts.

The two things that infuriate me is first - the anti-mask crusaders - the masks in public protect other people, not so much you.  But if everyone wears a mask, then everyone is much better protected.  I mean, we are all in this together.     The pictures of nutjobs with the AR-15s don't infuriate me because they are right wing nutjobs.  They infuriate me because they stand in front of police without a mask yelling at them, endangering their lives.   Then they stand around for hours protesting together not wearing a mask because american excellence is their protection or some other misguided idiocy..

The second thing is that when these ###-hats come to my ER in 2 weeks I have a small risk to my life intubating  them, for a dumb choice they made.  I frankly never considered that aspect too much, in that it's a part of what I signed up for becoming a doctor, but I had to admit one of my friends and ICU doctor colleagues to his  own  ICU two nights ago and  I'm still depressed about it and frankly a little bit anxious about it happening to me too
Stay safe

 
We are at the point by me where every urgent care has covid testing and antibody testing. So im not sure why we keep saying we need more tests. 
Well, there are a few things here...two primary things would be:  #1, your area is the exception, not the rule in terms of availability.  #2, we are still way behind in quantity across the country if we plan on doing any sort of contact tracing.

Reality is, the ship's left the dock at this point.  The testing isn't going to happen and we're going to see wave one continue to get larger and larger.  If things continue as they are, in a couple weeks we are going to have several more hotspots pop up.  Will they be just like NYC?  Probably not, but they are going to be a significant problem for local areas and caused prolonged pain of additional months because they chose not to wait a few more weeks to open.

 
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Well, there are a few things here...two primary things would be:  #1, your area is the exception, not the rule in terms of availability.  #2, we are still way behind in quantity across the country if we plan on doing any sort of contact tracing.
Yet NYC mayor still saying not enough testing. I don't get it

 
Yet NYC mayor still saying not enough testing. I don't get it
Just because every urgent care center near you has the testing doesn't mean that it is available to everyone in NYC. And also, just because they are available, doesn't mean that the correct people are getting tested.

 
Yet NYC mayor still saying not enough testing. I don't get it
Not sure I understand your confusion....we are way behind in testing, but we'll never catch up.  IMO, it's a good thing to point out we continue to lag in testing.  I guess more context is needed to understand what he's saying?  Not sure.

 
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NY is interesting with testing. I had to go to LabCorp to take a pre-employment drug screen last week (Suffolk County). As a result, I received a few LabCorp emails, including one that says they have Covid-19 testing. Both diagnostic and antibody testing. So when I was in there, I asked the technician if they have both types of Covid-19 testing. She says "yes, do you want to get tested"? So I said no as I have a lot going on with getting a new job right now. I think she mentioned the antibody test was $119 but it's free if you have a doctor order it for you. Place was empty, by the way. When we were talking, she said that the testing is pretty widely available now and anyone can get a test if they want to, but they aren't advertising it that way just yet. 

I usually refrain from anecdotal stories, so take this for what it's worth, some guy on the Internet sharing his story about LabCorp on Long Island.

 
NY is interesting with testing. I had to go to LabCorp to take a pre-employment drug screen last week (Suffolk County). As a result, I received a few LabCorp emails, including one that says they have Covid-19 testing. Both diagnostic and antibody testing. So when I was in there, I asked the technician if they have both types of Covid-19 testing. She says "yes, do you want to get tested"? So I said no as I have a lot going on with getting a new job right now. I think she mentioned the antibody test was $119 but it's free if you have a doctor order it for you. Place was empty, by the way. When we were talking, she said that the testing is pretty widely available now and anyone can get a test if they want to, but they aren't advertising it that way just yet. 

I usually refrain from anecdotal stories, so take this for what it's worth, some guy on the Internet sharing his story about LabCorp on Long Island.
Yep CityMD and PM Pediatrics are just two urgent cares that are offering both covid swab test and antibody test at ALL locations to anybody that wants. 

Keep in mind this is GREAT news that people in this thread either don't believe or just love to bash. 

 
NY is interesting with testing. I had to go to LabCorp to take a pre-employment drug screen last week (Suffolk County). As a result, I received a few LabCorp emails, including one that says they have Covid-19 testing. Both diagnostic and antibody testing. So when I was in there, I asked the technician if they have both types of Covid-19 testing. She says "yes, do you want to get tested"? So I said no as I have a lot going on with getting a new job right now. I think she mentioned the antibody test was $119 but it's free if you have a doctor order it for you. Place was empty, by the way. When we were talking, she said that the testing is pretty widely available now and anyone can get a test if they want to, but they aren't advertising it that way just yet. 

I usually refrain from anecdotal stories, so take this for what it's worth, some guy on the Internet sharing his story about LabCorp on Long Island.
I had the antibody test done on Tuesday at a Northwell Health facility in Eastern Long Island.  Zero out of pocket and results back yesterday.  Negative antibodies or at least below the threshold.  

Northwell is using the Abbott Architect test.

 
Did you show symptoms at some point?
I was sick off and on for 3 weeks in February but never had a bad fever.  My daughter was sick and had a fever.  We took her to the doctor and she tested negative for the flu, my wife and I think she may have had COVID.  My wife was very sick as well but never went to doctor.

 
Looks like Sonora Quest is offering the antibody test for $99 here in Phoenix.  I am tempted to go take test.
There are something like 100 different tests out there and we have little data on the reliability of them. Not sure I would want to fork over 100 bucks
I'm not sure why people would be paying for this either.  My wife has scheduled her antibody test for early next week and doesn't have to pay anything....at least that's our understanding.  Maybe I need to verify?

 
I'm not sure why people would be paying for this either.  My wife has scheduled her antibody test for early next week and doesn't have to pay anything....at least that's our understanding.  Maybe I need to verify?
Yeah, I don't get the point of any of these antibody tests right now since you can't trust the results.

 
We have flatten the curve pretty good here in BC so our premier (would be your governor) has announced the plan to reopen 
Our provinces top Dr. is saying no sports and no international flights for a long time (Phase 4) 
Im assuming that she is in contact with the top Dr in Canada and is on the same page for the plan
The top Dr in Canada hasn't said anything on these topics yet 

We have done pretty good to flatten the curve here , 4 countries are doing better then BC : Hong Kong , Korea , Australia Singapore and it looks like we are even with New Zealand
There are graphs in the 1st link

For context 
no restaurants are allowed patrons to sit , only take away , all provincial and federal parks are completely closed , city parks are open but the most popular have their parking lots closed , the playgrounds are taped off , tennis courts and soccer fields are closed , no fishing or boating 
grocery stores and businesses that are open are limiting the amount of people inside but masks and gloves are NOT mandatory for workers or customers ( all workers are wearing masks and gloves  though while 10-15% of the people are wearing masks and 50% gloves  ) 

BC's restart plan

COVID-19: No going to a Canucks game until a vaccine is found, but pubs can open May 19

The businesses must follow the social distancing guidelines to stay open

Based on these factors, steps can be taken to reduce the risk, including:

Physical distancing measures – measures to reduce the density of people
Engineering controls – physical barriers (like plexiglass at checkouts) or increased ventilation
Administrative controls – clear rules and guidelines
Personal protective equipment – like the use of non-medical masks

These modifications and controls, combined with the following measures, can reduce the risk of transmission.
Create clear workplace policies that ensure people with cold or flu symptoms do not come to work
Implement sick day policies that allow people to be off or work safely from home when they are ill or have symptoms of a cold or flu

Provide work from home options, when possible, to reduce contact intensity. When it’s not an option, consider measures such as staggered shifts and virtual meetings as much as possible

Implement strategies that reduce the number and intensity of contacts – from greater use of non-medical masks to more checkouts and increased shopping hours
Clean “high-touch” areas in workplaces and retail outlets frequently and provide hand sanitizer at entrances
Focus on higher-risk employees including those over the age of 60 and those with underlying medical conditions – from more flexible hours, to work from home options and workspace accommodation

Additional measures specific to various organizational settings are being developed. More will be created as various sectors are engaged and industry or sector wide norms are adopted and required.

Phase 1

Where we are today

Essential Services Operating During COVID-19
Essential health and health services
Law enforcement, public safety, first responders and emergency response personnel
Vulnerable population service providers
Critical infrastructure
Food and agriculture service providers
Transportation
Industry and manufacturing
Sanitation
Communications and information technology
Financial institutions
Other non-health essential service providers

Phase 2

Mid-May onwards

Under enhanced protocols:
Restoration of health services
Re-scheduling elective surgery
Medically related services:
Dentistry, physiotherapy, registered massage therapy, and chiropractors
Physical therapy, speech therapy, and similar services
Retail sector
Hair salons, barbers, and other personal service establishments
In-person counselling
Restaurants, cafes, and pubs (with sufficient distancing measures)
Museums, art galleries, and libraries
Office-based worksites
Recreation and sports
Parks, beaches, and outdoor spaces
Child care

Phase 3

June to September
If transmission rates remain low or in decline, under enhanced protocols:

Hotels and Resorts (June 2020)
Parks – broader reopening, including some overnight camping (June 2020)
Film industry – beginning with domestic productions (June/July 2020)
Select entertainment – movies and symphony, but not large concerts (July 2020)
Post-secondary education – with mix of online and in-class (September 2020)
K-12 education – with only a partial return this school year (September 2020)

Phase 4

Date to be determined
Conditional on at least one of the following; wide vaccination, “community” immunity, broad successful treatments:

Activities requiring large gatherings, such as:
Conventions
Live audience professional sports
Concerts
International tourism

The timing of a safe restart of night clubs, casinos and bars is a more complicated consideration. As with other sectors, industry associations will be expected to develop safe operations plans, for review, that are in keeping with Public Health and Safety Guidelines, as well as WorkSafeBC.

 
@VaughnHillyard

This is tough. Arizona just reported its highest single day of COVID-19 deaths. The 67 deaths doubles the previous high of 33 recorded earlier this week. To note: Last four days in AZ have been the top-four days for deaths reported in the state. Retail + salons opening today.

 
Remarkable that 1 in 5 American workers has filed for unemployment in the past 8 weeks, and today there was an unemployment report that is the worst since the Great Depression, and markets are rallying. This can be read a multitude of ways, one being investors think the worst is behind us. Another is that we’ve built a system that could give a #### about the bottom half. Wall Street seems to be saying let them live off the dole and struggle to survive, as long as we further consolidate around corporations. Bigger, less competition, more power to management and executives, and less to the worker. However you see it, it’s a commentary on modern American life.
It's pretty much both...."screw the little guy, the worst is behind us get my stock prices up!!!!!".  You'll notice that the majority of large companies didn't shut down and the ones that did weren't told they had to.

 
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Because Politicians NEVER lie
So your theory is:

  • Politician lies in order to delay re-opening
  • Failure to re-open causes massive economic and state budgetary pressures
  • Those pressures result in him/her requesting federal relief
  • That federal relief enables him/her to save the state from bankruptcy
  • That bankruptcy avoidance enables him/her to be re-elected
Is that the working hypothesis or do you have another explanation for the political benefit of lying, because I am having a hard time coming up with the upside of doing so.  And so lack of motive along with lack of proof tends to make me doubt the veracity of the claim.  But then again I'm just a rube who doesn't know that politicians lie so...help me out.

Thanks.

 
Looks like Sonora Quest is offering the antibody test for $99 here in Phoenix.  I am tempted to go take test.
Not picking on you Noonan as I know you indicated that you experience some symptoms, but am thinking that given the growing availability of antibody tests + the low specificity of most antibody tests + Bayes rule: we should expect (in this thread and elsewhere) to soon/eventually hear alot about people purporting to have "gotten Covid twice" when in fact they were likely part of the false positive generation the first time around.  That reality plus our citizenry's and our media's inability to understand basic math concepts should make for an interesting debate as we head into the Fall.

 
@JAA  i got an email from NIAID about that antibody study.  had to fill out a brief survey, for prescreening.  we'll see what comes of it.  did you get yours?

 
JbizzleMan said:
@VaughnHillyard

This is tough. Arizona just reported its highest single day of COVID-19 deaths. The 67 deaths doubles the previous high of 33 recorded earlier this week. To note: Last four days in AZ have been the top-four days for deaths reported in the state. Retail + salons opening today.
I thought I was going to be ok with this reopening plans but it’s starting to give me anxiety. Ducey gave brewery taprooms a loophole to open on Monday with the restaurants. All they need to do is offer some kind of food. I’m happy for my friends who are in the business but it just seems too soon for something that’s such a social business.

 
@JAA  i got an email from NIAID about that antibody study.  had to fill out a brief survey, for prescreening.  we'll see what comes of it.  did you get yours?
I sent the email in for my wife and I. Just checked my email after seeing your post and we got it too!

 
Morton Muffley said:
Not picking on you Noonan as I know you indicated that you experience some symptoms, but am thinking that given the growing availability of antibody tests + the low specificity of most antibody tests + Bayes rule: we should expect (in this thread and elsewhere) to soon/eventually hear alot about people purporting to have "gotten Covid twice" when in fact they were likely part of the false positive generation the first time around.  That reality plus our citizenry's and our media's inability to understand basic math concepts should make for an interesting debate as we head into the Fall.
What evidence is there that the antibody tests are unreliable?

 
What evidence is there that the antibody tests are unreliable?
There is a lot of evidence for this - easy enough to Google. IMO, don't waste your money on it - only get it done if it is free and then just assume, regardless of the result, that you have never had COVID19. 

 
I'll say something that may sound heartless, but I bet many have contemplated...

There are such things as "acceptable losses".  The question is, what is that number?  I don't claim to know, and there is no real answer.  Governors are literally being forced to play God by choosing when to open their states back up.  I personally wouldn't want to have to make that decision, but the fact is, they have to.  I think we can all agree that loosening restrictions will amount to more lives being lost (to COVID).  For every action, there is a reaction.

 
Beginning to feel like we would have been better off not shutting down at all if we going to do it so poorly, we are not going to mitigate deaths much because of states opening up too early, so it feels like the last 1.5 months of sheltering in place was a waste of time. Even if a state is not opening up, there is no way to prevent less responsible people from other states going there and starting outbreaks. That combined with seemingly actively malicious people who refuse to partake in minimal safety measures designed to keep people safe around them means this will be circling around in the US for a really long time compared to other countries. I will not be surprised if later in the year most of the world besides the US has everything under control, and also I would not be surprised if most of the world has a travel ban to/from the US for a while because of this. 

 
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