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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

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I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.
I used to think the same thing but then I noticed that if I'm not wearing a mask, then other maskless people will see it as an invitation to approach me to have a face-to-face conversation.

 
I'm an ER doc and I've had literally dozens of patients with non-covid problems delay coming in until they were much worse -specifically telling me they waited because they were scared - ruptured appy, heart attacks, asthma, lacerations, fractures and multiple other examples.    

I've also had probably 20 times my typical rate of people signing out AMA when I advised admitting them for treatment because they are scared of being admitted - at least 2-3 a shift.

The loss of ER volume is multifactorial, but some types of visits are way way down - I usually see 3-4 car accidents a shift and now see maybe 0.5. No one is driving. Seeing very few visits for things like gastroenteritis, migraines, and workman's comp injuries. The moderately sick are avoiding until they are more ill and no one is getting hurt at work.....

I feel that to simply claim that since visits are down 50%, that it just means those 50% didn't need to really be there to be a very simplistic argument 
I didn't see anyone make that argument, but I'd wager the majority of patients who opted out of visiting the ER didn't need emergent care in the first place. Nearly half of all US medical care is delivered in ERs - while there are multiple reasons for this, medical necessity isn't high on the list.

Also, what is your typical AMA rate? 

 
I used to think the same thing but then I noticed that if I'm not wearing a mask, then other maskless people will see it as an invitation to approach me to have a face-to-face conversation.
I am only approached by strangers for conversation in vegas or because I apparently look like I work at every retail store in America. 

 
Not really. I just think that if world Patient Zero timelines are going to get pushed back, the data indicating such a move has to be especially solid.

That said, CBS News put this out today -- surprisingly direct for a major media outlet (long read, below are excerpts):
Is the original timetable based on solid footing or was it just first?
Don't really know for sure ... a lot of smoke is starting to collect, I'll say that much.

 
When this thing has spread to 70+% of the population they are going to see a dramatic decrease in the number of possible recruits.  I can see the reactionary guidance, but that isn't going to stand for too long.
It may also be an attempt to provide a disincentive to out-of-work citizens who may be thinking of trying to get an immunity passport and joining the military.  

Just pure speculation on my part, but I could see how the military would want to avoid creating an (implied) incentive during a period of high unemployment  and as a result determine that creating a short-term disincentive might be necessary.

 
Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21
Perhaps they're worried about the long-term health consequences of C-19? Scarring of lungs --> less ability to exert oneself, scarring of heart --> more potential for arrhythmia, etc.

In the short term, the probably want to minimize the chance someone who's still contagious joins their ranks.

 
They are attempting to answer the question of how can we open safely without creating a spike. The correct answer is we can’t. But if met these unattainable goals, I guess we could do it.

It’s similar to asking how to safely tell your wife she has gained weight during the quarantine. I guess if you buy her a beach house and thousands of dollars worth of jewelry, you might be ok.
Bolded not getting the love it deserves  :thumbup:

You are vey hung up in this. 
Given that we have literally pages of this thread dedicated to just this very subject, "when" did patient zero occur and it's importance to the narrative of this virus, I'd say there is good reason. @Doug B just pointing out that those articles are intentionally nebulous so both sides can point to them and say SEE!!!! GOTCHA!!!!

 
Lets assume is been around for 3 months.  Isn't that enough time to know whether those that have recovered are showing deficiencies?  
Perhaps, assuming they were recognized in the first place, and objectively tested while acutely ill and convalescing. Pulmonary function tests would probably be the way to go, but there's no way these would occur in someone sick enough to be hospitalized with COVID, and everybody else would be home quarantined. Follow up PFTs could be done though.

Serial CT scans might show lung scarring, but radiographic findings don't always have functional consequences.

 
So ... let's revisit the conventional wisdom about China's Patient Zero from mid-March (Newsweek, 3/14/2020). This article actually presents differing early-identification dates depending on source, but none earlier than 11/17/2019:

Bolded in red are the differing dates I mentioned earlier. I also thought the part in blue was interesting ... wasn't getting a lot of attention back when this article was fresh.

...

OK. So what's does the house here in the FFA think at this point? No doubt about it that China had early- to mid-fall 2019 cases identified, but that they've covered it up? Or else do the dates in the Newsweek article still generally hold up? Or somewhere in the middle?
I have zero doubts this has been in the states longer than reported. As many others have stated, a lot of people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. High fever for 3 days followed up with 2-3 days of a horrible cough. Negative flu test. Look around, many others with the same story. 

 
My 20 year old is temporarily out of college and is doing construction work - I'm seeing this first hand.
Kids would be so ahead of the curve if they worked for 3-4 years, saved every penny, invested it in a mutual fund, and then went to college.  (If needed)

Imo work is a good thing

 
I don't really care about your "doom and gloom" crap take.  Blind optimism based on faulty info isn't a positive quality.  Take a freaking look around the world man.  Look at the reality of the situation.  The reason hospitalizations and rates are down is because of the social distancing measures.  Once those end, all those rates will go right back up.  That's how viruses work.

You can try and sugarcoat it all you want, but there are 27,000 confirmed covid-19 cases from YESTERDAY.  And in the middle of that, everyone is making plans to open it up.

I get why, the economy is a disaster-zone.  But from the perspective of this disease and the spread of this disease, it's a nightmare scenario that goes against the recommendations of scientific experts. It might be what has to happen to keep the economy from imploding, but it's really bad for the spread of the disease.
In other contexts I've been called a Pollyanna, but I am also frustrated by people dismissing widespread human suffering as "doom and gloom". To recognize bad stuff is happening and will probably continue doesn't make finding workable solutions any less likely, but burying one's head in the sand doesn't help anything.

 
I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.
While I don't disagree with the general thesis of your argument, here are some devil's advocate points:

  • even in uncrowded areas (i.e. hiking path) there are are times when one is forced into close distance with others, however infrequently.  And in these situations, wearing a mask is superior (however modest) to both NOT wearing a mask AND to constantly adjusting your mask on/off
  • wearing a mask, even in uncrowded areas, sets a good example and could have positive downstream impacts for those who are not reading the science closely and merely copying the behaviors of others regardless of the circumstance
  • there is so little we know about transmission that the downside (modest inconvenience even if risk is very low) still seems to outweigh the upside (avoid infection of a very nasty virus): let's call this Pascal's virological wager
As always, just my opinion.

 
I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.
Yeah but that quote doesn't say in an uncrowded area.  

 
I have zero doubts this has been in the states longer than reported. As many others have stated, a lot of people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. High fever for 3 days followed up with 2-3 days of a horrible cough. Negative flu test. Look around, many others with the same story. 
I agree with the part in red, though what "longer" means can be a point of contention.

Still, I'd like to see actual evidence collected and analyzed. Anecdotes from even hundreds of thousands of people don't get us much closer to the truth because the symptoms reported are so generic.

Speculation: Of all Americans who can say "I had high fever + horrible cough + negative flu test sometime between 12/1/2019 and 1/15/2020**", less than 1% actually were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of course, I can't prove that or put if forward as "truth". It's just something I believe now until better, non-anecdotal information comes along.

 

** the date Washington's state's presumed Patient Zero returned from Wuhan and landed at Sea-Tac Airport
.


EDIT: Washington state's Patient Zero appears to also be the U.S.'s Patient Zero pending new information.

 
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I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.
Yeah but that quote doesn't say in an uncrowded area.  
Yeah, it all rests on how you mentally define "public spaces".

That phrase makes me think of large indoor spaces first, second, and third. But then, I'm not an outdoorsy type. Others may think "public space" means "parks, trails, beaches, etc." first and foremost.

 
I have zero doubts this has been in the states longer than reported. As many others have stated, a lot of people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. High fever for 3 days followed up with 2-3 days of a horrible cough. Negative flu test. Look around, many others with the same story. 
you should always have a little doubt

 
Oh, ok. I misread your post. I made an assumption you were speaking with first hand knowledge and not speculation. 
:shrug:  I said, 

I would absolutely expect people to be fearful of going to the ER. They still may have to depending on the emergency. 

But I have no doubt if it's something 6 months ago they might be on the fence about whether something was serious enough for the ER, today they probably do not go. 
Not sure how that could have been more clear this was something I was thinking.

Other people replied with their first hand knowledge.

 
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Got a friend who tested positive with this and she's not in the hospital, but she is super sick and has been for a week.  She's not even talking on the phone at this point.  Doc says that the fever and severe illness can go 10 days or more even if it doesn't progress to a critical stage, so if she can get through the next few she should start to get better.  But it's not much fun knowing this sort of watching and waiting is going to be the norm for all of us for some time into the future.

 
Saw a thoughtful model just now from The Lancet that shows the impact of one week and ongoing 20% increases in activity in counties that were previously shut down.  Given that fatalities don't show up for 2-4 weeks after things are relaxed some of the projections there are dire.  Obviously everyone will react again if/when these materialize -- so they don't just go on forever -- but if modeled anywhere near right we'll very quickly see the impact of even a brief return to normal in a fraction of the US.

Oops.  The Lancet article above is a new estimate of the the Infection Rate of Fatality (.66% FWIW).  The reopening model is from Columbia U.

 
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For those tracking at home....OH Gov DeWine just announced that Open Air Dining will resume on May 15th; Inside Dining will resume on May 21st.  Barbershops and Salons will open on May 15th.

Of course there will be rules/restrictions in place for social distancing, gloves, and masks.  But things are starting to move forward.

 
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I agree with the part in red, though what "longer" means can be a point of contention.

Still, I'd like to see actual evidence collected and analyzed. Anecdotes from even hundreds of thousands of people don't get us much closer to the truth because the symptoms reported are so generic.

Speculation: Of all Americans who can say "I had high fever + horrible cough + negative flu test sometime between 12/1/2019 and 1/15/2020**", less than 1% actually were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Of course, I can't prove that or put if forward as "truth". It's just something I believe now until better, non-anecdotal information comes along.

 

** the date Washington's state's presumed Patient Zero returned from Wuhan and landed at Sea-Tac Airport
.


EDIT: Washington state's Patient Zero appears to also be the U.S.'s Patient Zero pending new information.
I tend to agree with this. I wouldn't be shocked if it were here (or there) prior to the currently known point, but the other side to this discussion is the fact that the overwhelming majority of people getting tested RIGHT NOW, and throughout the last 2 months, have tested NEGATIVE for CV19. And while some of those can be explained away by front line workers getting mandatory tests, maybe some bad tests/false negatives sprinkled in, multiple tests for those who have been infected and to rule on recovery status, etc., still... we're talking 80-85% negative out of all tests administered to date (basing this % on LA data and other states' data where they show number of tests administered, seems to be similar in percentages). That's still a lot of people who thought that they had CV19 that have, well, something else. 

 
Got a friend who tested positive with this and she's not in the hospital, but she is super sick and has been for a week.  She's not even talking on the phone at this point.  Doc says that the fever and severe illness can go 10 days or more even if it doesn't progress to a critical stage, so if she can get through the next few she should start to get better.  But it's not much fun knowing this sort of watching and waiting is going to be the norm for all of us for some time into the future.
All? Majority of people get mild symptoms or are asymptomatic. 

 
For those tracking at home....OH Gov DeWine just announced that Open Air Dining will resume on May 15th; Inside Dining will resume on May 21st.  Barbershops and Salons will open on May 15th.

Of course there will be rules/restrictions in place for social distancing, gloves, and masks.  But things are starting to move forward.
Interesting. Ohio is a state that was been pretty quick to lock down, and they locked down pretty hard. Another 14 days for things looks about right in terms of their curve. They may be opening a bit ahead of that, but 1,200 deaths in a state of 12 million and almost the full way through a first curve at least seems like their data is looking ok. It doesn't appear they ever overran hospital capacity, but I don't know their capacity numbers and peak of hospitalizations to say for sure. I hope many people get back to work while maintaining distance, hygiene and low case numbers.

 
All? Majority of people get mild symptoms or are asymptomatic. 
A majority of us are going to have someone we love get sick and then have to wait and see just how sick they get.  Even if only 50% of us get it and 15% of those get really ill, most of us know a lot of people.

 
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Kids would be so ahead of the curve if they worked for 3-4 years, saved every penny, invested it in a mutual fund, and then went to college.  (If needed)

Imo work is a good thing
My kid is in tech school, so it will be interesting to see how that continues.  Can't be done online.

As a father I am extremely gratified that he isn't afraid or unwilling to put in a hard days work.  I've always told my kids that just willingness to show up and work hard leads to about 90% chance of success in life.  At least one listened.

 
A majority of us are going to have someone we love get sick and then have to wait and see just how sick they get.  Even if only 50% of us get it and 15% of those get really ill, most of us know a lot of people.
All of us also will probably know someone that gets cancer. I don't get the point.

 
As someone firmly of the belief that we’re opening up too soon and it’s not going to be pretty, I’ve had to adjust my thinking being in a state (AZ) that’s going to broadly opening businesses back up in the next 10 days. The reality of the situation now is that the train is moving and nothing is stopping it at this point. And with the new projections, chances are it will be a long time before we ever hit the ‘right time’ to open.

I’ve shifting my thinking to opening in the safest, most responsible ways. We’re not going back to normal for awhile, now is the time to make sure our new normal can be done safely so we won’t have to return to a lockdown situation.

Last night I was helping my friend fix a couple things at his craft beer restaurant. Him and his wife are the owners and they were never shut completely done. They’ve done well with takeout and delivery mainly because of their hustle and hard work. They’ve been able to support several of their employees during the time. We talked a while about what he’s going to do Monday when they can open under restrictions. He’s not anxious to open up and probably will only do it on a limited basis and not advertise it. He’s even considering waiting a week and see how goes for other businesses. He’s lucky to have those options because many need all they can get right away.

It’s really a horrible situation and we just have to hope for the best. I’m worried more about people letting down their defenses than the businesses opening. Throw away the mask and start gathering in groups again. A nail salon posted on Nextdoor that they are opening tomorrow and almost immediately 20 people posted asking for appointments, some with their entire families.

I’m trying to remain optimistic that it will all be fine. Not helping when I just overheard the store manager say that they need to call everyone in because they’ve had so many call-outs.

 
It has been awhile since I shared in this thread. Needed a break from the Covid stuff.

An update from over here in The Netherlands …

In terms of new daily cases as well as daily fatalities, the stats continue to trend in a positive direction. There is a large consensus that we are well beyond the peak. Hospital admissions and ICU bed usage are currently at the level they were before this whole thing blew up. Testing is being applied to a wider group of people and is projected to be available for any of the 17 million Dutch people who desire it as of 1 June.

The first phase “re-opening” plans were presented yesterday. Here are the highlights:

Basis Rules

  • Maintain 1.5 meters distance between each other at all times
  • Avoid busy & congested places
  • Work from home as much as possible
  • Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands
  • If you have cold symptoms, stay home. If you have a cough or fever keep all in that house at home
Per 11 May the following things can start up again

  • Contact professions - Barbers, beauticians, acupuncturists, etc
  • Libraries
  • Elementary schools and special education
  • Organized outdoor sport activities
Per 1 June the following things can start up again

  • Movie theaters - Max 30 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 30 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 30 people
  • High Schools
  • From this moment forward, masks are mandatory when using public transportation
Per 1 July the following things can start up again

  • Camp grounds and vacation parks
  • Movie theaters - Max 100 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 100 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 100 people
  • Organized group activities - Max 100 people
Per 1 September the following things can start up again

  • All sport activities including professional soccer
  • Saunas
  • Sex workers
  • Coffee shops
  • Casinos
It is still unclear when large scale events like concerts can resume.

Businesses can start to re-open as of 1 June based on protocols that they agree on within their sectors. Basic Rules need to be adhered to.

The scientist people over here speak of when, not if, a 2nd wave will hit.

Hope this helps. Be well and stay health!

 
It has been awhile since I shared in this thread. Needed a break from the Covid stuff.

An update from over here in The Netherlands …

In terms of new daily cases as well as daily fatalities, the stats continue to trend in a positive direction. There is a large consensus that we are well beyond the peak. Hospital admissions and ICU bed usage are currently at the level they were before this whole thing blew up. Testing is being applied to a wider group of people and is projected to be available for any of the 17 million Dutch people who desire it as of 1 June.

The first phase “re-opening” plans were presented yesterday. Here are the highlights:

Basis Rules

  • Maintain 1.5 meters distance between each other at all times
  • Avoid busy & congested places
  • Work from home as much as possible
  • Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands
  • If you have cold symptoms, stay home. If you have a cough or fever keep all in that house at home
Per 11 May the following things can start up again

  • Contact professions - Barbers, beauticians, acupuncturists, etc
  • Libraries
  • Elementary schools and special education
  • Organized outdoor sport activities
Per 1 June the following things can start up again

  • Movie theaters - Max 30 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 30 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 30 people
  • High Schools
  • From this moment forward, masks are mandatory when using public transportation
Per 1 July the following things can start up again

  • Camp grounds and vacation parks
  • Movie theaters - Max 100 people
  • Restaurants and Cafes - Max 100 people
  • Theaters and Museums - Max 100 people
  • Organized group activities - Max 100 people
Per 1 September the following things can start up again

  • All sport activities including professional soccer
  • Saunas
  • Sex workers
  • Coffee shops
  • Casinos
It is still unclear when large scale events like concerts can resume.

Businesses can start to re-open as of 1 June based on protocols that they agree on within their sectors. Basic Rules need to be adhered to.

The scientist people over here speak of when, not if, a 2nd wave will hit.

Hope this helps. Be well and stay health!
Thank you for this, your country can help us learn (not like we'll listen anyway). Wish we could have been as disciplined and smart, and hope everything goes well there.

 
As someone firmly of the belief that we’re opening up too soon and it’s not going to be pretty, I’ve had to adjust my thinking being in a state (AZ) that’s going to broadly opening businesses back up in the next 10 days. The reality of the situation now is that the train is moving and nothing is stopping it at this point. And with the new projections, chances are it will be a long time before we ever hit the ‘right time’ to open.

I’ve shifting my thinking to opening in the safest, most responsible ways. We’re not going back to normal for awhile, now is the time to make sure our new normal can be done safely so we won’t have to return to a lockdown situation.

Last night I was helping my friend fix a couple things at his craft beer restaurant. Him and his wife are the owners and they were never shut completely done. They’ve done well with takeout and delivery mainly because of their hustle and hard work. They’ve been able to support several of their employees during the time. We talked a while about what he’s going to do Monday when they can open under restrictions. He’s not anxious to open up and probably will only do it on a limited basis and not advertise it. He’s even considering waiting a week and see how goes for other businesses. He’s lucky to have those options because many need all they can get right away.

It’s really a horrible situation and we just have to hope for the best. I’m worried more about people letting down their defenses than the businesses opening. Throw away the mask and start gathering in groups again. A nail salon posted on Nextdoor that they are opening tomorrow and almost immediately 20 people posted asking for appointments, some with their entire families.

I’m trying to remain optimistic that it will all be fine. Not helping when I just overheard the store manager say that they need to call everyone in because they’ve had so many call-outs.
With close adherence to mandates our restaurant has stayed open for take out from day one of restrictions, supporting part of our employees. We have a smallish dining room so my plan is to continue the current setup until a time is determined to provide a full measure of safety to our employees and customers regarding dine in options. I have greater a moral obligation than a financial one. 

 
Interesting. Ohio is a state that was been pretty quick to lock down, and they locked down pretty hard. Another 14 days for things looks about right in terms of their curve. They may be opening a bit ahead of that, but 1,200 deaths in a state of 12 million and almost the full way through a first curve at least seems like their data is looking ok. It doesn't appear they ever overran hospital capacity, but I don't know their capacity numbers and peak of hospitalizations to say for sure. I hope many people get back to work while maintaining distance, hygiene and low case numbers.
This would all fine and dandy by me if we didn't seem to have an abnormally large amount of "durrr freedom" mask refusing hardliners.  That hot garbage video Plandemic being forwarded all over by the simps is sure to help that. Thanks for the help "kind neighbors".  :rolleyes:

 
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Why you need to wear the damn mask

tldr: 

Being mildly inconvenienced for the greater good is not only right, it's a moral imperative. It's how we manage to live together in relative safety in our society.
Who the hell coughs, in public, without covering their mouth? Mask, or no mask I"m having words (from afar) with any dork who just let's er rip.  Also, the video showing the differences between coughing into your hand and coughing wearing a mask are quite similar. The main difference was the way she describes it. And, why didn't she stick her elbow in front of the cough after stating that's how most people do it?  "Here's how we are told to cough.  But, let's demonstrate how it looks a different way"  :loco:

 
This is nuts

In New York City, the healthcare workers tested positive for antibodies 12.2% of the time, while the general public tested positive 19.9% of the time, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday.

 
My county jumped from 41 cases to 59 in one day. Don't think I will be venturing out even though we are starting to open.

 
My county jumped from 41 cases to 59 in one day. Don't think I will be venturing out even though we are starting to open.
So I see numbers like this and I have no clue where I fall in regards to this anymore.

I know it is a serious virus and precautions were needed we have like 3300 in our county but our population is 445000.

My town is 170 out of about 40000. And most of that is from nursing homes....

 
We are at the point by me where every urgent care has covid testing and antibody testing. So im not sure why we keep saying we need more tests. 

 
So I see numbers like this and I have no clue where I fall in regards to this anymore.

I know it is a serious virus and precautions were needed we have like 3300 in our county but our population is 445000.

My town is 170 out of about 40000. And most of that is from nursing homes....
We have 41,000 in our county in rural Ohio.

 
We have 41,000 in our county in rural Ohio.
Sorry I wasn't insinuating you shouldn't be concerned or anything.... I just see numbers in front of me and sometimes think "it's not that bad" let's open a little.

Problem is I'm in NJ so we are all linked together.... I went from no big deal to this is super freaking serious to I don't know anymore

 
We are at the point by me where every urgent care has covid testing and antibody testing. So im not sure why we keep saying we need more tests. 
Aren't you in the NYC area? Probably a lot different there than in most other places in the U.S.

 
Sorry I wasn't insinuating you shouldn't be concerned or anything.... I just see numbers in front of me and sometimes think "it's not that bad" let's open a little.

Problem is I'm in NJ so we are all linked together.... I went from no big deal to this is super freaking serious to I don't know anymore
Didn't take it that way.  I agree the numbers are vague without more details.

 
Hospitals nearly empty. 
Are you sure?  I know three people who work in hospitals, two in NJ and one in Brooklyn (I think?), and my impression from them is they're swamped.  All I've heard is that they've reassigned doctors and nurses from all other departments to help deal with all the COVID cases, etc.  Haven't witnessed it myself obviously but have no reason to doubt them - curious where the disconnect is. 

 
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