*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

[Capella]

I'm in NY and I watched Cuomo today and I have a real problem with the way this was presented. I am no math major but I do know spin and marketing. Whenever someone cites percentages they are trying to highlight the differences between stats and hide the actual numbers. People look at percentages and only see the difference. 

66%, yes huge difference then the next number of 18%. But what is that really? According to the article it’s is based on 3 days totaling 1300 cases statewide...close to 20 Million people. That 66% equals 850 cases, spread out over 113 hospitals equals just over 7 cases per hospital....but thats over 3 days, so really these hospitals are seeing just over 2 CASES PER DAY of this new "stay home" group.

Then factor in that more the HALF of these 1300 came from NYC alone! So that even reduces the number of daily cases on the outlying hospitals..some to even ZERO cases.

But have they really been staying at home? Considering symptoms show up 10-14 days after contamination, this was before any mask mandates and people were out shopping and doing things...but its still only 2 cases per hospital.

Also, why are homeless a stat all of a sudden? They were never counted before. Ironically finally after all these weeks, Cuomo finally has been asked to answer for them in the subways. Well its prob a little too late b/c I'm sure many of the homeless have already contracted it and unfortunately many of them have passed because of limited access to medicine. But now its only 2% so they must never have been an issue, right? Apparently thats what these numbers are telling us. 

IMO we are being sold a plate of "Scary Virus Monster" right now. And they are using old hat marketing tricks to do it. The math does not add up. I am in no way trivializing this virus and what it caused, I know 3 people in my circles who have passed. But I am beginning to see through some of NY leadership's narrative.   I believe they are not ready to begin letting us out and they are looking for ways to keep us inside.

Oh man. Not you too. 
 

why wouldn’t a mayor/governor want people out working and spending money if it was safe? What benefit do they get from you being confined? I hear this conspiracy theory all the time about how “they” want to control you, but never the why. 

 

[The_Man]

I encourage you to read this Twitter thread by David Wallace-Wells

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1258373213513490434?s=20 

We are reopening the country and we're not ready for what is going to follow

 

[beer 30]

Ok, this Plandemic YouTube video has found its way into my Facebook feed.   Even by some, I thought, normal people. Anyone else? I did a search for that word and got nothing so apologies if it’s been covered. I’m not linking it.

I found a very refreshing alternative to this since my timeline was chuck full of this video. I stated I was snoozing anyone that posted it and did just that. Cleaned my feed right up, 30 days of blissful silence 

 

[Capella]

I encourage you to read this Twitter thread by David Wallace-Wells

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1258373213513490434?s=20 

We are reopening the country and we're not ready for what is going to follow

I mean I agree with everything he said but 5 million tests a day is just so out of touch it was hard to take serious. If that was ever the plan it should have been scrapped day 1. 

 

[[scooter]]

I encourage you to read this Twitter thread by David Wallace-Wells

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1258373213513490434?s=20 

We are reopening the country and we're not ready for what is going to follow

I mean I agree with everything he said but 5 million tests a day is just so out of touch it was hard to take serious. If that was ever the plan it should have been scrapped day 1. 

The "Five million per day" estimate comes from a Harvard paper.

Not sure if I'd describe it as "out of touch", but it's certainly on the far end of feasibility.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Does anyone understand the thought behind the models now showing a large increase in May and June?  Everything I've seen recently has the rate of positive tests going down, vast majority of states have R estimate under 1, Kinsa temp data shows very little fever, etc.  Is this based on the assumption that people are going to interact more and thus transmission will spike?

 

[Capella]

Does anyone understand the thought behind the models now showing a large increase in May and June?  Everything I've seen recently has the rate of positive tests going down, vast majority of states have R estimate under 1, Kinsa temp data shows very little fever, etc.  Is this based on the assumption that people are going to interact more and thus transmission will spike?

Yup

 

[the moops]

Also, not to get into conspiracy theories or anything but now all of a sudden Cuomo is working with Bill Gates Gates possibly changing how education is done forever in NY going forward?

How ####### convenient 

The words following the bold are indeed you getting into ####### conspiracy theories. Jesus dude

 

[the moops]

Ok, this Plandemic YouTube video has found its way into my Facebook feed.   Even by some, I thought, normal people. Anyone else? I did a search for that word and got nothing so apologies if it’s been covered. I’m not linking it.

She’s a kook.

https://twitter.com/mamadoctorjones/status/1258204508263514112?s=21

Indeed

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scientist-vaccine-jailed/?fbclid=IwAR08Pyilx7D1mf9_V5FRo907CL28fy1dw-_Fq-U6Esilr6CTWNpamofEShg

 

[jplvr]

It’s interesting to contemplate how many people are avoiding ERs who actually need emergent care, versus inappropriate use of healthcare resources. I’d wager the majority never needed an ED visit in the first place.

I never really had a clue about this until we hired one closing secretary who took her children to the ER for ANYTHING. How many times we bailed out her dumb### financially was mind boggling, and 95% of the time, it was because she had to pay for an ER visit or ambulance ride.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

Yup

Thanks.  I wasn't sure if there was some current visible trend that I was missing.  Hopefully they are vastly overestimating the carelessness of people.

 

[jamny]

I accidentally did once but I'm going to need to pretend to be too busy at work now. Good Lord.

 Exactly what I did this morning. One and done with any debate on this video.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I mean I agree with everything he said but 5 million tests a day is just so out of touch it was hard to take serious. If that was ever the plan it should have been scrapped day 1. 

180,000 contact tracers seems crazy also. 

 

[JbizzleMan]

Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21

 

[jamny]

New York Deaths Suddenly Spike by Nearly 1,000 Amid Apparent Change in Reporting

I was wondering why worldometer showed 752 deaths in NY yesterday.

 

[The Commish]

I mean I agree with everything he said but 5 million tests a day is just so out of touch it was hard to take serious. If that was ever the plan it should have been scrapped day 1. 

It's where we are though.  Had testing begun sooner, it wouldn't be this bad.  The longer we prolong adequate testing, the larger that number per day is going to get.  It wasn't necessary to be this aggressive in Jan/Feb.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21

Seems like requiring a waiver would be a prudent policy in these early stages. 

 

[[scooter]]

Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21

Good way to discourage potential recruits from seeking medical care.

 

[Payne]

Also from the article:

Balloux and colleagues pulled viral sequences from a giant global database that scientists around the world are using to share data. They looked at samples taken at different times and from different places, and said they indicate that the virus first started infecting people at the end of last year.

"This rules out any scenario that assumes SARSCoV-2 may have been in circulation long before it was identified, and hence have already infected large proportions of the population," Balloux's team wrote in their report, published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

That is one piece of bad news. Some doctors had hoped the virus was circulating for many months and may have quietly infected many more people than has been reported. That would offer the hope that there might be some immunity already built up in some populations.

"Everyone was hoping for that. I was too," Balloux said.

Their findings pour cold water on such an idea. At the most, 10% of the global population has been exposed to the virus, Balloux estimated.

What am I missing? Isn't this article contradicting itself??

I'm convinced this was here well before we thought it was. Many people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

What am I missing? Isn't this article contradicting itself??

I'm convinced this was here well before we thought it was. Many people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. 

It does not contradict itself. 

It states that the virus was here earlier than thought but also that it wasnt widespread.

Those things can exist together. 

 

[Blick]

Seems like requiring a waiver would be a prudent policy in these early stages. 

Based on the linked article, there are three potential reasons (my after each) for this:

1. Whether respiratory damage from the virus is long-lasting or permanent, and whether that can be assessed; - Shouldn't we know this already???
   
2. the likelihood of recurring flare-ups, even if someone has had two consecutive negative tests; - This may be a legitimate concern.  If so, doesn't it get negated by an effective vaccine?
   
3. and the possibility that one bout of COVID-19 might not provide full immunity for the future, and could potentially leave someone at a higher risk to contract it again, perhaps with worse complications. - Again, this gets negated by an effective vaccine.
   

If we do not develop a vaccine, then, in time, no one will qualify without a waiver.  So, not to put on my tin-foil hat, but it seems they know something we don't.

I guess this may make sense in the short term.

 

[beer 30]

Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21

This Tweet is unavailable.

If we do not develop a vaccine, then, in time, no one will qualify without a waiver.  So, not to put on my tin-foil hat, but it seems they know something we don't.

And there's no guarantee we find a vaccine any time soon or even ever.

 

[Blick]

This Tweet is unavailable.

Here's the link to the article.

Survivor Ban

 

[jobarules]

Oh man. Not you too. 
 

why wouldn’t a mayor/governor want people out working and spending money if it was safe? What benefit do they get from you being confined? I hear this conspiracy theory all the time about how “they” want to control you, but never the why. 

I don't want to get too deep into politics but NY is asking for a bailout from the federal government. Which scenario would help them get a bailout more?

Opening up the economy today

Or waiting longer and longer and things get even more desperate where the federal government almost has no choice?

 

[Capella]

I don't want to get too deep into politics but NY is asking for a bailout from the federal government. Which scenario would help them get a bailout more?

Opening up the economy today

Or waiting longer and longer and things get even more desperate where the federal government almost has no choice?

Demonstrating how awful the last 6 weeks were should be quite enough. 

 

[jobarules]

Demonstrating how awful the last 6 weeks were should be quite enough. 

These are the games these politicians play. They don't care about the collateral damage. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Based on the linked article, there are three potential reasons (my after each) for this:

1. Whether respiratory damage from the virus is long-lasting or permanent, and whether that can be assessed; - Shouldn't we know this already???
   
2. the likelihood of recurring flare-ups, even if someone has had two consecutive negative tests; - This may be a legitimate concern.  If so, doesn't it get negated by an effective vaccine?
   
3. and the possibility that one bout of COVID-19 might not provide full immunity for the future, and could potentially leave someone at a higher risk to contract it again, perhaps with worse complications. - Again, this gets negated by an effective vaccine.
   

If we do not develop a vaccine, then, in time, no one will qualify without a waiver.  So, not to put on my tin-foil hat, but it seems they know something we don't.

I guess this may make sense in the short term.

I think this is mostly an issue of the terminology sounding off to people. I mean "permanently disqualifying" sounds really harsh. But that is what they use and they issue waivers all the time. 

People have called for that process to be changed for a while. 

If the process was the same but they used something like "Novel virus waiver requirement" as the official terminology this doesnt even get noticed.

 

[shader]

I encourage you to read this Twitter thread by David Wallace-Wells

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1258373213513490434?s=20 

We are reopening the country and we're not ready for what is going to follow

Really good thread that shows how far from an ideal plan this is.

France, Spain, Italy, Germany...these countries all have reopening plans.  But go look at their daily cases.  There is a peak, and then a massive dropoff in new cases.

The USA, which is the hardest hit country by far, doesn't have that dropoff.  This country has a plateau that is gently trending downward.  The USA had 27,000+ new cases YESTERDAY.  

It's an impossible situation now.  The mistakes made in the past have put us in a terribly difficult situation.  How on earth do you even begin to contract trace 27k new people every day.  It's impossible.

That being said, I understand the need to reopen. The economy is barely alive.  Unemployment rate is hitting peak Great depression numbers.  I think the only thing keeping the economy going is this hope that soon it's all going to open up and we will move on with life.  Virtually all my friends think this.  

But the reality is much different, imo.  The USA waited too long to lockdown, and then it was mostly a voluntary system.  To be fair, most people that I know did a really good job of quarantining.  The country did a great job overall.  But it wasn't enough.  We stopped the bleeding, we stopped the hospitals from being over-run.  

Now what?  I don't think any of us have a clue.  I don't know how a person that makes models would have any clue what to do.

The government has to walk a fine line of opening in a way that keeps the R0 as low as possible, while allowing the economy to rebound.  But it's really not the government, it's 50 different governments.  There is a relatively large segment of the population that is becoming increasingly convinced that the whole thing is a giant hoax.  How do you project what will happen?  What if 35% totally turn their backs on any and all precautionary procedures?  How do you model that? 

The other thing is that a second lockdown will likely detonate the economy almost instantly imo.  If we let everyone loose, the numbers explode, then we try to quarantine for 2 more months, I'm not sure the economy can take that.

No idea what the solution is, to be honest.  But tough days are ahead.

 

[Wrigley]

I don't want to get too deep into politics but NY is asking for a bailout from the federal government. Which scenario would help them get a bailout more?

Opening up the economy today

Or waiting longer and longer and things get even more desperate where the federal government almost has no choice?

Illinois says hold my beer

 

[Biff84]

I mean I agree with everything he said but 5 million tests a day is just so out of touch it was hard to take serious. If that was ever the plan it should have been scrapped day 1. 

They are attempting to answer the question of how can we open safely without creating a spike. The correct answer is we can’t. But if met these unattainable goals, I guess we could do it.

It’s similar to asking how to safely tell your wife she has gained weight during the quarantine. I guess if you buy her a beach house and thousands of dollars worth of jewelry, you might be ok.

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

Really good thread that shows how far from an ideal plan this is.

France, Spain, Italy, Germany...these countries all have reopening plans.  But go look at their daily cases.  There is a peak, and then a massive dropoff in new cases.

The USA, which is the hardest hit country by far, doesn't have that dropoff.  This country has a plateau that is gently trending downward.  The USA had 27,000+ new cases YESTERDAY.  

New cases don't mean much with much more testing? Positive rates are down, net hospitalizations are down. I try to remain optimistic despite the doom and gloom on this board.

 

[Doug B]

What am I missing? Isn't this article contradicting itself??

I'm convinced this was here well before we thought it was. Many people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. 

Yes -- the writer leaves in the fuzzy term "late in the year" so that readers can  use the article defend whatever stance they happen to have.

If you think China's lying through their teeth, and the virus actually spread to the first human in early October or something and was easily in Europe by 12/1/2019 ... hey, there's "late in year" to back you up.

If you think all the early-spread theories are woo and it's hard fact that no one outside of China had COVID-19 before January ... hey, there's "late in the year" to back you up, too.

"Late in the year" could be anything from Labor Day to New Year's Eve, IMHO.

 

[Doug B]

What am I missing? Isn't this article contradicting itself??

I'm convinced this was here well before we thought it was. Many people were sick in January. My youngest daughter included. 

It does not contradict itself. 

It states that the virus was here earlier than thought but also that it wasnt widespread.

Those things can exist together. 

Maybe, maybe not -- depends on what "earlier than thought" means. IMHO, the writer is happy to have some readers assume "months and months ago, early fall at the very latest".

For those readers who take "earlier than thought" to mean "a month earlier, tops, and really more like three weeks" ... then OK. Not new news, but OK.

 

[Doug B]

Based on the linked article, there are three potential reasons (my after each) for this:

1. Whether respiratory damage from the virus is long-lasting or permanent, and whether that can be assessed; - Shouldn't we know this already???
   

How long has COVID-19 been around? Nothing about "long-lasting" or "permanent" is going to be known anytime real soon.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Maybe, maybe not -- depends on what "earlier than thought" means. IMHO, the writer is happy to have some readers assume "months and months ago, early fall at the very latest".

For those readers who take "earlier than thought" to mean "a month earlier, tops, and really more like three weeks" ... then OK. Not new news, but OK.

You are vey hung up in this. 

 

[the moops]

These are the games these politicians play. They don't care about the collateral damage. 

Of course they do

 

[Blick]

How long has COVID-19 been around? Nothing about "long-lasting" or "permanent" is going to be known anytime real soon.

Lets assume is been around for 3 months.  Isn't that enough time to know whether those that have recovered are showing deficiencies?  

 

[Doug B]

Maybe, maybe not -- depends on what "earlier than thought" means. IMHO, the writer is happy to have some readers assume "months and months ago, early fall at the very latest".

For those readers who take "earlier than thought" to mean "a month earlier, tops, and really more like three weeks" ... then OK. Not new news, but OK.

You are very hung up in this. 

Not really. I just think that if world Patient Zero timelines are going to get pushed back, the data indicating such a move has to be especially solid.

That said, CBS News put this out today -- surprisingly direct for a major media outlet (long read, below are excerpts):

Tracking down COVID-19's patient zero and how that person first contracted the coronavirus may take years, especially as U.S.-China relations tumble to a new low.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the details of patient zero are "in the possession of only the Chinese Communist Party." Beijing denies any such cover-up. That heightened tension is complicating rather than helping researchers' efforts to collaborate with Chinese scientists to find answers. The ongoing travel restrictions due to COVID-19 also make it impossible for Americans to do on-the-ground research.

U.S. medical experts tell CBS News the virus may actually have been circulating among humans for some time before the late 2019 Wuhan outbreak. The origin of the COVID-19 virus — SARS-CoV-2 — could be determined by collecting blood samples from different parts of China that had been drawn and stored in the country prior to the winter of 2019, according to Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University's Center for Infection and Immunity, and then testing them for antibodies to see if the virus was present in another area before the devastating Wuhan outbreak.

...

"I want to find out where it came from and find drugs to defeat it," Dr. Lipkin told CBS News in a phone interview. Lipkin hopes to be able to collaborate with Chinese researchers to access local blood banks to determine if the virus was present anywhere from one to ten years ago. He had conducted similar research with the virus that caused MERS. But conducting such research takes time and access.

"If you start looking at haystacks, how quickly do you find the needle?" Lipkin said. "It is not easy to do this given that I cannot go back to China right now." That is why, Lipkin argues, anyone who wants to find answers to these questions would need to work in cooperation with Chinese researchers and perhaps even China's Ministry of Health.

At present none of those options seem to be available. China recently blocked the World Health Organization (W.H.O.) from participating in its investigation of the virus. The W.H.O. representative in China  told Sky News last week that there was no good reason for its repeated requests to join the government investigation to have been declined.

Secretary Pompeo told reporters on Wednesday that Beijing continues to refuse to allow any access. "It's not even that in the moment they couldn't do the right thing; they continue to be opaque and they continue to deny access for this important information that our researchers, our epidemiologists need," Pompeo said. 

University-based researchers, like Dr. Lipkin, are hopeful that they may be a preferable alternative to a politically charged entity as the W.H.O. is at present. However, that still requires Beijing to be open to such collaboration on their part of its own scientists. 

 

[shader]

New cases don't mean much with much more testing? Positive rates are down, net hospitalizations are down. I try to remain optimistic despite the doom and gloom on this board.

I don't really care about your "doom and gloom" crap take.  Blind optimism based on faulty info isn't a positive quality.  Take a freaking look around the world man.  Look at the reality of the situation.  The reason hospitalizations and rates are down is because of the social distancing measures.  Once those end, all those rates will go right back up.  That's how viruses work.

You can try and sugarcoat it all you want, but there are 27,000 confirmed covid-19 cases from YESTERDAY.  And in the middle of that, everyone is making plans to open it up.

I get why, the economy is a disaster-zone.  But from the perspective of this disease and the spread of this disease, it's a nightmare scenario that goes against the recommendations of scientific experts. It might be what has to happen to keep the economy from imploding, but it's really bad for the spread of the disease.

 

[Doug B]

So ... let's revisit the conventional wisdom about China's Patient Zero from mid-March (Newsweek, 3/14/2020). This article actually presents differing early-identification dates depending on source, but none earlier than 11/17/2019:

The first confirmed case of someone suffering from COVID-19 in China can be traced back as far as November 17 last year, according to local reports.

The South China Morning Post reported it had seen government data showing that a 55-year-old from Hubei may have had the first confirmed case of the new coronavirus on November 17, but did not make the data public. The newspaper also said that it was possible there were cases reported before the November date set out in the government data, adding that Chinese officials had identified 266 cases of COVID-19 last year.

...

The WHO says its country office in China first received reports of a "pneumonia of unknown cause" detected in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei province on December 31 last year.

It added that authorities said some of the early patients had been operators in the Huanan Seafood market.

The first patient to show symptoms of what would later be identified as the new coronavirus, known as COVID-19, presented themselves on December 8, according to Chinese officials.

Bolded in red are the differing dates I mentioned earlier. I also thought the part in blue was interesting ... wasn't getting a lot of attention back when this article was fresh.

...

OK. So what's does the house here in the FFA think at this point? No doubt about it that China had early- to mid-fall 2019 cases identified, but that they've covered it up? Or else do the dates in the Newsweek article still generally hold up? Or somewhere in the middle?

 

[Doug B]

How long has COVID-19 been around? Nothing about "long-lasting" or "permanent" is going to be known anytime real soon.

Lets assume is been around for 3 months.  Isn't that enough time to know whether those that have recovered are showing deficiencies?  

Perhaps, but that's a different thing. Generic deficiencies are not necessarily long-lasting or permanent ones. For certain values of "long-lasting".

 

[Sand]

Why you need to wear the damn mask

tldr: 

Being mildly inconvenienced for the greater good is not only right, it's a moral imperative. It's how we manage to live together in relative safety in our society.

Except, of course, at McDonalds.  Any flak over not wearing one there is a legitimate excuse to pop some holes into people.

 

[Redwes25]

Trumps Valet tested positive according to CNN.  Whatever your politics I hope he doesn't have it since it would not be good at this critical juncture to have the President ill.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

 

[Sand]

Ummm. The DOD has issued guidance to disqualify anyone who has had Covid-19 from joining the military... what do they know?

https://twitter.com/lkatzenberg/status/1258389590584541184?s=21

When this thing has spread to 70+% of the population they are going to see a dramatic decrease in the number of possible recruits.  I can see the reactionary guidance, but that isn't going to stand for too long.

 

[tri-man 47]

When this thing has spread to 70+% of the population they are going to see a dramatic decrease in the number of possible recruits.  I can see the reactionary guidance, but that isn't going to stand for too long.

Tough time to be an 18 year old.  Going to college could be unsettling this coming year, at best, and risky/deadly, at worst.  Take a bridge year?  Sure, but can you find a job if the economy remains down?  Join the military? Not necessarily ...

 

[Sand]

Tough time to be an 18 year old.  Going to college could be unsettling this coming year, at best, and risky/deadly, at worst.  Take a bridge year?  Sure, but can you find a job if the economy remains down?  Join the military? Not necessarily ...

My 20 year old is temporarily out of college and is doing construction work - I'm seeing this first hand.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Why you need to wear the damn mask

tldr: 

Being mildly inconvenienced for the greater good is not only right, it's a moral imperative. It's how we manage to live together in relative safety in our society.

I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

Go for a walk, visit any open establishment or public space, and you will note a disconcerting phenomenon: People without masks.

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

I don't really care about your "doom and gloom" crap take.  Blind optimism based on faulty info isn't a positive quality.  Take a freaking look around the world man.  Look at the reality of the situation.  The reason hospitalizations and rates are down is because of the social distancing measures.  Once those end, all those rates will go right back up.  That's how viruses work.

You can try and sugarcoat it all you want, but there are 27,000 confirmed covid-19 cases from YESTERDAY.  And in the middle of that, everyone is making plans to open it up.

I get why, the economy is a disaster-zone.  But from the perspective of this disease and the spread of this disease, it's a nightmare scenario that goes against the recommendations of scientific experts. It might be what has to happen to keep the economy from imploding, but it's really bad for the spread of the disease.

This is true, which is why opening up the economy and continuing social distancing measures don't have to be exclusive. Businesses opening up safely, in construction, manufacturing and retail, can happen while people still mostly stay home, definitely stay 6 feet apart, wear masks, wash hands vigorously and often, etc. Everything won't come roaring back at once, but there needs to be businesses employing people while society stays diligent with mitigation measures. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

Also, not to harp on the U.S. as a whole, but the U.S. as a whole isn't a region. States, and even parts of states, are a region. And regions should begin their re-opening based on their data of how far along the curve they are, their hospital capacity, and what makes sense given their situation. NY has a fully developed curve at this point. Take out NY from the U.S. numbers, and the U.S. is actually still going up. But again, it comes down to a regional level. I really wish these other regions would be disciplined enough to go through the curve fully, but they're just letting NY do that for them apparently. 

 

[ChiefD]

OK. So what's does the house here in the FFA think at this point? No doubt about it that China had early- to mid-fall 2019 cases identified, but that they've covered it up? Or else do the dates in the Newsweek article still generally hold up? Or somewhere in the middle?

I personally think it has been here longer than we previously thought. 

My kids school had an abnormally large number of kids diagnosed with pneumonia sometime in the Jan-Feb time frame. Someone I work with had a really bad dry cough for two months that started in December. Took several rounds of drugs to knock it out.

Heck, I was training for a half marathon in Jan/Feb and was having a hard time breathing and was feeling exhausted almost every day. And I was in pretty decent shape. 

So who knows...I'm certainly no doctor and the above could be explained away to normal stuff....but there are a lot of coincidences that tell me it was here sooner. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

I agree with the overall point, but the first line of the article stumbles right into a pet peeve:

If you are out for a leisurely walk in an uncrowded area, there is no reason to wear a mask.  It's completely pointless.

Tell that to all the people that have been infected because they leaned up against a tree that had virus particles on it from a runner from 15 minutes before. 

Oh wait...