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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)

belljr said:
So I have taken this very seriously but I'm curious now if masks are really needed in certain situations. So when they consider close contact for tracing it's the 15minute exposure or same amount of time in a 24 hour period. Six feet etc   I wear masks and will continue to do so but are they really necessary if I run into a convenience store? A coffee shop if I'm walking in placing an order and leaving?

I get needing them in gyms or say shopping at lowes super market etc where your most likely going to be indoors with many people for longer periods of time.  I guess you can't half mandate masks here and there.

Just something I've been thinking about
Necessary for you? Probably not. Necessary for the clerk? Much more likely. 

If it is a poorly ventilated bodega, aersols can easily accumulate in pockets. Imagine if that was right where the register is, behind plexiglass.

 
Necessary for you? Probably not. Necessary for the clerk? Much more likely. 

If it is a poorly ventilated bodega, aersols can easily accumulate in pockets. Imagine if that was right where the register is, behind plexiglass.
All the stores I go into the workers are wearing masks, behind glass etc.. 

Listen I'm not going to not wear one, it's just something I've been thinking about

 
[icon] said:
https://gut.bmj.com/content/early/2021/01/04/gutjnl-2020-323020
 

"Gut microbiome composition was significantly altered in patients with COVID-19 compared with non-COVID-19 individuals irrespective of whether patients had received medication (p<0.01). Several gut commensals with known immunomodulatory potential such as Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Eubacterium rectale and bifidobacteria were underrepresented in patients and remained low in samples collected up to 30 days after disease resolution. Moreover, this perturbed composition exhibited stratification with disease severity concordant with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines and blood markers such as C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase."
[Jules]

"English, ************ !! Do you speak it ?!?!"  :D  

[/Jules]

...

This makes me wonder two things:

a) if testing of a person's gut biota alone could ever be a useful COVID-19 infection identification tool. And ...

b) if pre-infection differences in individuals' gut biota has any effect whatsoever on the severity of a COVID-19. If so, it might help explain why people who are superficially similar (e.g. siblings close in age with similar body types and health profiles) can sometimes (if infrequently) have such varying reactions to the virus.

 
belljr said:
So I have taken this very seriously but I'm curious now if masks are really needed in certain situations ...  I wear masks and will continue to do so but are they really necessary if I run into a convenience store? A coffee shop if I'm walking in placing an order and leaving?
Two things:

1) The aggregate risk to you in these situations isn't so much ... but keep in mind that the employees there are there for hours at a time.

2) You don't really know in advance who was breathing in the store/coffee shop and for how long. The convenience store could be empty of customers, yet still with infectious aerosols in the air from a few minutes before. And that's before we get to cases of employees being asymptomatic carriers and still working, breathing in the shop all shift long. Not especially big risks, no, but possible ones.

 
All the stores I go into the workers are wearing masks, behind glass etc.. 

Listen I'm not going to not wear one, it's just something I've been thinking about
Behind the glass can actually be worse

And cloth masks wont protect a cashier stuck in a plexiglass pocket of covid. Obviously aerosols don't always accumulate there, but they certainly can. 

This study is about singing and performing, and it is ongoing, but initial recommendations are no plexiglass. 

Plexiglass partitions or barriers between musicians are not recommended due to room HVAC system design limitations. "Dead zones" or areas where aerosol can build-up are a concern of plexiglass partitions are used.

 
J&J’s one-shot Covid vaccine is safe and generates promising immune response in early trial (CNBC, 1/13/2021)

  • J&J scientists randomly assigned healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 55 and those 65 and older to receive a high or low dose of its vaccine — called Ad26.COV2.S — or a placebo.
  • Most of the volunteers produced detectable neutralizing antibodies, which researchers believe play an important role in defending cells against the virus, after 28 days, according to the trial data.
  • By day 57, all volunteers had detectable antibodies, regardless of vaccine dose or age group, and remained stable for at least 71 days in the 18-to-55 age group.
The trial tested 805 volunteers. The company is expected to release results from its 45,000-person phase three trial later this month. J&J is using the same technologies it used to develop its Ebola vaccine for its Covid-19 vaccine.

 
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Its a non peer reviewed study and that article as far as I can tell didnt even link it. That should always make everybody skeptical.

This is the most relevant info right now. 

Of the 44 potential reinfections identified by the study, 2 were designated ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’, based on the amount of confirmatory evidence available. If all 44 cases were confirmed, it would represent an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, while if only the 2 ‘probable’ reinfections were confirmed, the rate would be 99%. Further research is ongoing to clarify this range.
Why are you quoting a part of the article that had nothing to do with the question asked?

 
[icon] said:
https://gut.bmj.com/content/early/2021/01/04/gutjnl-2020-323020
 

"Gut microbiome composition was significantly altered in patients with COVID-19 compared with non-COVID-19 individuals irrespective of whether patients had received medication (p<0.01). Several gut commensals with known immunomodulatory potential such as Faecalibacterium prausnitzii, Eubacterium rectale and bifidobacteria were underrepresented in patients and remained low in samples collected up to 30 days after disease resolution. Moreover, this perturbed composition exhibited stratification with disease severity concordant with elevated concentrations of inflammatory cytokines and blood markers such as C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and gamma-glutamyl transferase."
So... take probiotics?  Is that what this means?

 
GroveDiesel said:
Haven’t received my email yet and I’m in 1C. Bummer.

I get why they’re doing it, but rubs me a bit the wrong way that smokers are being classified as having underlying health conditions and qualified as 1b in NJ. It does make sense as they are higher risk because of their compromised lungs, so from a pure public health standpoint I get it. Just a bit frustrating personally that my profession doesn’t get me classified as 1B despite being public health related and dealing directly with the virus at times when I have family with immunological issues at home, but someone who has chosen to smoke can get it ahead of me. Maybe that’s just selfish of me.
ditto.  and from what i am hearing those that are eligible to get it cant find appointments.  there are like all these different places to look and they all show booked.  people are like waking up at 6am to try to get spots a few weeks out.

 
GroveDiesel said:
I get why they’re doing it, but rubs me a bit the wrong way that smokers are being classified as having underlying health conditions and qualified as 1b in NJ. It does make sense as they are higher risk because of their compromised lungs, so from a pure public health standpoint I get it. Just a bit frustrating personally that my profession doesn’t get me classified as 1B despite being public health related and dealing directly with the virus at times when I have family with immunological issues at home, but someone who has chosen to smoke can get it ahead of me. Maybe that’s just selfish of me.
There are several large groups of people getting prioritized for poor life choices. Personally I find it infuriating that those that chose a healthy lifestyle are now being punished for it. So, know you are not alone, not by a longshot.

 
I like how they tout that their's only takes one shot but in another article I read it says it takes 30 days to reach full immunity so its not really a big improvement IMO.
All about storage and dosing requirements.  No 2nd shot means half the logistics headache in getting people jabbed.

Also, there is attrition in people not getting the second shot.  Some % will never show up for the follow-up visit.

 
I like how they tout that their's only takes one shot but in another article I read it says it takes 30 days to reach full immunity so its not really a big improvement IMO.
Requiring only one dose is a significant delivery advantage. And unless the J&J vaccine is very expensive to produce, should also be a cost savings per dose.

 
Why are you quoting a part of the article that had nothing to do with the question asked?
That wasnt part of the article. That was from the UK government release. 

The study in question didnt actually address the question asked and neither did the article. 

The quotes about people that have had the virus that could transmit the virus werent based on an assessment of whether or not they could be uninfected carriers. It was based on the possibility that up to 17% of people could be reinfected. If they are reinfected they are presumed carriers and therefore presumed spreaders. 

That 17% number is an absurdly high number. The study itself thus far has only considered 2 of the cases to actually be high enough of a chance to be "probable".

So a 1% reinfection rate is a much more likely outcome than a 17% rate. 

 
Study shows immunity is still strong in 90% of recovered patients after 8 months: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/533315-study-shows-coronavirus-immunity-still-strong-in-previously-infected-after

This is another strong argument that previously infected people should wait to get the vaccine, perhaps except for direct caregivers. 
This article was linked earlier this week and does seem to indicate you are not likely to get Covid for at least 8 months.  Not certain, but likely that if your not able to get reinfected 90% of the time, then you would not be able to pass it on to others.  But of course all of this is uncertain...just like the immunity will likely last longer than the 8 months identified in this study due to the disease only being around for 12 or so months.

 
ditto.  and from what i am hearing those that are eligible to get it cant find appointments.  there are like all these different places to look and they all show booked.  people are like waking up at 6am to try to get spots a few weeks out.
What really upsets me are Murphy’s excuses. NJ has been slower than most states to roll out vaccines and he continues to blame the federal government saying they have not supplied enough doses. Meanwhile, NJ has received over 650,000 doses and only given out a little over 250,000 doses. The large gap between doses available and doses delivered sure seems more like a distribution problem rather than a supply problem at this point.

 
My parents and my wife's parents were able to make vaccine appointments for next week so thankfully distribution seems to be improving in NJ.

 
I feel like we should be past this by now, but.... you wear a mask to protect others, they wear a mask to protect you.
You're a few months behind on this one:

When the White House coronavirus task force first recommended mask-wearing April 3, officials emphasized that this was not about you. It was about others. Your mom, dad, other family members. Friends. The older woman who always smiles at you at the grocery store, the immunocompromised dad coaching your kid’s basketball team.

Now, a growing body of science suggests that by wearing a mask to prevent spreading the virus, you may be protecting yourself, too. It is further evidence that knowledge about masks, and their benefits, continues to evolve — much as does understanding of the pandemic more broadly.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said for the first time, writing in a scientific bulletin posted to its website this week that “the benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer.” Masks are neither completely selfless nor selfish — they help everyone.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/12/covid-masks-protect-wearers/

The way we (the collective "we") handled masks could be a case study in how not to handle a public health issue.

 
I feel like we should be past this by now, but.... you wear a mask to protect others, they wear a mask to protect you.
I get that but if my interactions are under 5 minutes does it really matter? And again I am pro mask ...I was just thinking it over

 
I get that but if my interactions are under 5 minutes does it really matter? And again I am pro mask ...I was just thinking it over
You know the 15 minutes is mostly an arbitrary distinction from like a 1970 smallpox study right? 

They had to cut it off somewhere for %'s and practicality.

From a macro perspective I get what you are saying. I even support having the government back off from these types of places being the focus and I dont think getting into altercations with people over this kind of stuff would ever be beneficial, even legally. 

People quick running into a corner store likely represents a tiny % of spread and rather than focus on dealing with the most beautiful bag in the world in american beauty just swirling around stuck in place aerosols using crappy cloth masks, I would rather we get the cashier better ventilation or an air purifier and a KN95.

But from a pure morality perspective, you should just wear the mask. ("You" in the general sense.)

 
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I get that but if my interactions are under 5 minutes does it really matter?
Well, there is both a time element and a density-of-viral-load element in play. A lot of virus can cause an infection in a lot less than five minutes.

The trick is ... you won't necessarily know if you're walking into "a lot of virus". COVID Man might have been up at the Starbucks counter breathing heavy, then left with his coffee. 30 seconds later, you stroll on up. And maybe with the way the interior architecture and the Plexiglas barriers are set up ... aerosols don't disperse well from in front of the ordertaker.

That said -- yeah, the risks aren't all that much for each individual interaction. Just that they're not zero, and IMHO not negligible, either. 

 
You know the 15 minutes is mostly an arbitrary distinction from like a 1970 smallpox study right? 

They had to cut it off somewhere for %'s and practicality.

From a macro perspective I get what you are saying. I even support having the government back off from these types of places being the focus and I dont think getting into altercations with people over this kind of stuff would ever be beneficial, even legally. 

People quick running into a corner store likely represents a tiny % of spread and rather than focus on dealing with the most beautiful bag in the world in american beauty just swirling around stuck in place aerosols using crappy cloth masks, I would rather we get the cashier better ventilation or an air purifier and a KN95.

But from a pure morality perspective, you should just wear the mask. ("You" in the general sense.)
So, what NPIs would you suggest to decrease spread?

 
That wasnt part of the article. That was from the UK government release. 

The study in question didnt actually address the question asked and neither did the article. 

The quotes about people that have had the virus that could transmit the virus werent based on an assessment of whether or not they could be uninfected carriers. It was based on the possibility that up to 17% of people could be reinfected. If they are reinfected they are presumed carriers and therefore presumed spreaders. 

That 17% number is an absurdly high number. The study itself thus far has only considered 2 of the cases to actually be high enough of a chance to be "probable".

So a 1% reinfection rate is a much more likely outcome than a 17% rate. 
Thanks for posting your prior post and this one.   It drives me nuts when the math-and-logic-challenged media distributes inaccurate and misleading information.   This is a prime example.   A 1% reinfection rate would be rounding error.  17%?  Only 5 months of immunity?  Much bigger deal.  

The article should have been about how this information almost literally tells us nothing until the topic is studied further.

 
I like how they tout that their's only takes one shot but in another article I read it says it takes 30 days to reach full immunity so its not really a big improvement IMO.
It's a huge improvement logistically.   1) fewer shots required in total, 2) don't need to save doses for people to get their 2nd dose within a specific window of time, 3) don't need the extra hassle of slotting in people for appointments for that 2nd dose, 4) it's another vaccine that gives us more doses to work with.   Every new vaccine is a game changer.

 
It's a huge improvement logistically.   1) fewer shots required in total, 2) don't need to save doses for people to get their 2nd dose within a specific window of time, 3) don't need the extra hassle of slotting in people for appointments for that 2nd dose, 4) it's another vaccine that gives us more doses to work with.   Every new vaccine is a game changer.
Yeah thats fair. I wasn't thinking logistics. 

 
It's a huge improvement logistically.   1) fewer shots required in total, 2) don't need to save doses for people to get their 2nd dose within a specific window of time, 3) don't need the extra hassle of slotting in people for appointments for that 2nd dose, 4) it's another vaccine that gives us more doses to work with.   Every new vaccine is a game changer.
It can store in a regular refrigerator

 
Per Covid worldometers, total Covid deaths have now surpassed 2 million.  US set to exceed 400,000 tomorrow.
I've nearly stopped communicating with some work "friends" because of this. People that I used to enjoy chatting with that swear the numbers are "baked" because "hospitals get more for COVID deaths so they just call everything COVID." Or "I have a bunch of friends that got this and there symptoms are less than the flu. It's nothing. The media is just invoking doomsday for ratings." Those types of things. When I ask them where they got their info, it's invariably Twitter or FB. I just gave up having conversations with them. I don't need the aggravation.

 
I've nearly stopped communicating with some work "friends" because of this. People that I used to enjoy chatting with that swear the numbers are "baked" because "hospitals get more for COVID deaths so they just call everything COVID." Or "I have a bunch of friends that got this and there symptoms are less than the flu. It's nothing. The media is just invoking doomsday for ratings." Those types of things. When I ask them where they got their info, it's invariably Twitter or FB. I just gave up having conversations with them. I don't need the aggravation.
I actually do know someone who had their adult son die of cancer in June. The hospital asked her if they could list cause of death as Covid on his death certificate and he didn't even have covid. She said no. I guess she could be lying to me though. 

 
I actually do know someone who had their adult son die of cancer in June. The hospital asked her if they could list cause of death as Covid on his death certificate and he didn't even have covid. She said no. I guess she could be lying to me though. 
I don't believe that.  That would be fraud.  Not worth it for any hospital worker to do that.  There's nothing in it for them except putting their job on the line to get the hospital more $.

It's possible that he did test positive for covid even though he had no symptoms. Not sure why they would approach a family member about it though. Certainly not the surviving family's call what goes into the vital records. 

 
I actually do know someone who had their adult son die of cancer in June. The hospital asked her if they could list cause of death as Covid on his death certificate and he didn't even have covid. She said no. I guess she could be lying to me though. 
That doesn't sound truthful at all. Nobody asks what can be listed on a death certificate.

 
So, what NPIs would you suggest to decrease spread?
Open some doors and windows. Air purification/ventilation. 

Push better masks for employees. Put butter on the floor of the employee lunchroom so nobody wants to congregate there. 

I know lots of people think temperature checks dont help because of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread, but I disagree. 

1. Pre and asymptomatic determinations are almost always based on surveys. Most people wont know they have a fever. 

2. Super spreader events are usually from symptomatic people. 

3. Fever occurs in like 80%of cases. 

Now obviously creating crowds waiting to get a temperature check isnt good so my focus again would be more on employees and places where people will be sitting or congregating. 

I would spray bleach everywhere...Oh wait thats worthless.

I would fine anybody 100000 dollars every time they say the phrase "false sense of security" in a non joking manner. 

Just some starting points here...

 
Open some doors and windows. Air purification/ventilation. 

Push better masks for employees. Put butter on the floor of the employee lunchroom so nobody wants to congregate there. 

I know lots of people think temperature checks dont help because of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread, but I disagree. 

1. Pre and asymptomatic determinations are almost always based on surveys. Most people wont know they have a fever. 

2. Super spreader events are usually from symptomatic people. 

3. Fever occurs in like 80%of cases. 

Now obviously creating crowds waiting to get a temperature check isnt good so my focus again would be more on employees and places where people will be sitting or congregating. 

I would spray bleach everywhere...Oh wait thats worthless.

I would fine anybody 100000 dollars every time they say the phrase "false sense of security" in a non joking manner. 

Just some starting points here...
Lots of this.  And temp checks are good — temp checks + smell/taste checks would be even better.

 
Even if it is true how many times can this possibly be happening? 
Especially since it is fraud .. my state 

Falsifying or Tampering with Records (N.J.S.A. 2C:21-4) is a very serious crime in New Jersey that can put you in prison for years. The lowest grade of the charge is at the fourth degree level, where conviction can result in an 18 month prison sentence and a fine of up to $10,000

 
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The person may be lying to me although I see no reason for her to lie. She's a retiree who lost her son to cancer. That being said I dodnt hear it from a friend. She told me directly. 
If she is someone that doesn't believe in Covid or the numbers reports, then I see a reason.

As @The Z Machine pointed out, for the provider that "asked her", there's no incentive to do so, there's significant risk to do so, and it simply doesn't work that way.

 
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The thing that confuses me with these articles is use of the term "lockdown."  Apologies if this dead horse has been beaten in this thread, which I've only followed tangentially.  The sentence from the Newsweek article - "The study compared cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the U.S. – all countries that implemented mandatory lockdown orders and business closures – to South Korea and Sweden, which implemented less severe, voluntary responses."

When and where did we ever have a "lockdown" in this country?  I know we never had one in my state.  Many states have never even had form of mandatory business closure, mask orders, etc., much less a "lockdown."  My state had limited business closures and people were encouraged to "shelter in place" but there was never anything remotely approaching the kind of lockdowns I read about in China and Italy.  I would say the majority of businesses, (including bars and restaurants) throughout most of my state have operated very nearly business as usual the past 9 months.

For the most part, the changes made to the day to day in my state have been "voluntary measures."

 
Came across this today, showing again that information can be all over the place on this.  Sorry main body is behind a registration wall, but study in the UK suggested about ~85% against asymptomatic and symptomatic reinfection if you have previously had the virus.  Quotes Neil Ferguson of UK lockdown fame suggesting they could ease restrictions on health workers who have already been infected.

 
It's critical to read this article to evaluate -- the headline is very misleading if read without context and detail. I turned your post into a link.

Short version - scroll to the end:

Health officials noted that around 400 people die each week in the nursing home population.

A Pfizer rep said the pharmaceutical giant is “aware of reported deaths” following the administration of the vaccine in Norway and is working with the Norwegian Medicines Agency “to gather all the relevant information.”

“Norwegian authorities have prioritized the immunization of residents in nursing homes, most of whom are very elderly with underlying medical conditions and some which are terminally ill,” a spokeswoman said in a statement. “[The Norwegian Medicine Agency confirms] the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations.”

 
The thing that confuses me with these articles is use of the term "lockdown."  Apologies if this dead horse has been beaten in this thread, which I've only followed tangentially.  The sentence from the Newsweek article - "The study compared cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the U.S. – all countries that implemented mandatory lockdown orders and business closures – to South Korea and Sweden, which implemented less severe, voluntary responses."

When and where did we ever have a "lockdown" in this country?  I know we never had one in my state.  Many states have never even had form of mandatory business closure, mask orders, etc., much less a "lockdown."  My state had limited business closures and people were encouraged to "shelter in place" but there was never anything remotely approaching the kind of lockdowns I read about in China and Italy.  I would say the majority of businesses, (including bars and restaurants) throughout most of my state have operated very nearly business as usual the past 9 months.

For the most part, the changes made to the day to day in my state have been "voluntary measures."
It should also be noted that the severe lockdowns in Italy, France, and Spain came after their massive outbreaks. The sort of lockdown in England also occurred after their big outbreak and they didn’t really lockdown until their Trump knock-off tested positive. Each country had an increase following the relaxation of those restrictions.

 

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