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Stinkin Ref

Ref's Predraft 10 Team Superflex Discussion Thread....

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Posted (edited)

https://www80.myfantasyleague.com/2020/home/54406#0

invites have been sent....

please review the  rules and scoring.....don't want to explain them all here....feel free to make suggestions for changes, etc.....I threw this together very quickly so may have made some mistakes, but I think it looks ok initially...

27 rounds......best ball

QB 1-2

RB 2-4

WR 3-6

TE 1-3

PK 1-2

DST 1-2

so basically 3 flex

Straight PPR 

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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ok....Bass is only one that hasn't checked in, but he will so I will get us going...

nothing super funky in the rules/scoring....so again, please review

QB 5 PPTD....only 1 for extra point pass

straight PPR

DST's get a little love like my last league, but PPR seems to have evened that out....

3 flex

max of two QB/DST/PK start....

max...4 RB

max...6 WR

max...3 TE

Good luck

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Ref ... your scoring isn't decimal except for PK ... instead of 0.04 per pass yard and 0.1 per rush/rec yard the site says "1 for every 25" and "1 for every 10". Which is OK if that's the way you intended it, I guess, but seems a little strange when kickers can get 3.5 and 4.5 for FGs to not have it be decimal across the board.

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14 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Ref ... your scoring isn't decimal except for PK ... instead of 0.04 per pass yard and 0.1 per rush/rec yard the site says "1 for every 25" and "1 for every 10". Which is OK if that's the way you intended it, I guess, but seems a little strange when kickers can get 3.5 and 4.5 for FGs to not have it be decimal across the board.

fixed...thanks

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Somewhat surprised that quarterbacks have not gone off the board any faster than they have.

I was really hoping to be able to draft Michael Thomas at #8, but @OldMilwaukee grabbed him at #6.  I felt like RBs would come off the board quickly with the opportunity to start up to four, so when Thomas was gone, focused on Dalvin Cook as a bell-cow foundation at the RB position. Very thankful that Julio Jones was still there in the second round so I could add another foundational starter at WR.

Holloway start is:

  • 1.8 RB Dalvin Cook RB5
  • 2.3 WR Julio Jones WR4

 

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forgot to mention....please sign up for the notifications or whatever you have to do....with only 10 teams....things can happen fast.....

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I was hoping to generate some insightful commentary given the once-again new and different format, but it's tough to do when 3 of your first 4 picks are the biggest no-brainers this side of Joe Burrow ...

  • 1.05 Saquon Barkley RB3 NYG - In a superflex it would've been nice to start off with L-Jax or Mahomes, but Quon is a hell of a consolation prize.
  • 2.06 DeAndre Hopkins WR5 AZ -  "But but but WRs tend to underperform their first year with a new team!" Counterpoints: Rice, Owens, Moss ... hey, it's almost as if Hall of Fame-level talent trumps learning curves.
  • 3.05 Dak Prescott QB6 DAL - Felt like I was already tempting fate by waiting until the 3rd to consider a QB. Dak offers the best floor / ceiling combo left on the board.
  • 4.06 Aaron Rodgers QB11 GB - I had 4 WRs on predraft here but threw A-Rod atop the list as a WTF gesture. Must be my lucky day! He had arguably his two worst full seasons as a starter in '18 and '19 and still finished QB9 and QB10 in this format - hard to see how there's any real downside at all at this price.

Pretty psyched to walk out of the first 4 rounds with two QB1s and bona fide studs at RB and WR.

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

wow....really glad i took a QB2 at 5.01

You definitely dictated my pick. Figured that there had to be a run coming before it got back to us. 

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:help:

Would like to take Joe Burrow here at the 6.05 but  I am unable to.   If someone could assign him to my team the draft may continue.

 

:thanks:

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For some reason I had to go to Reports and Security settings in order to add rookies.....never had to do that before

I had selected both NFL Players and Rookies on the draft set up screen.....kinda weird, but we are good to go now

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Posted (edited)

Thanks much for setting this up and also for tweeking the set-up. I greatly enjoy this distraction from the mundane of today.

I guess I am not schooled in this QB flex format. They went early and often and just kept going. I was expecting much earlier picks, but not that several would grab three so early.

Again, thanks for the format changes to make all of us think. Certainly lots of variations on strategy with so few owners and so many starters. It’s been really interesting thus far.

Edited by Stephen Holloway

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40 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

I guess I am not schooled in this QB flex format. They went early and often and just kept going. I was expecting much earlier picks, but not that several would grab three so early.

I didn't actually dive into historical scoring in this format until it came around to me in the 3rd round. Yes it's a small sample size but, based on last year's numbers, 23 QBs averaged 17+ ppg compared to 8 RBs, 6 WRs, and exactly zero TEs. Meaning most of us will be starting 2 QBs each week more often than not.

I'm not sure why that came as such a surprise to me since 2 of my money leagues are superflex :lol: ... but that kinda forced my hand at QB. Of course when I look back over those two leagues, several of the best teams wound up hitting on a late-round QB3 (or QB2 and QB3) rather than loading up early, so maybe I out-thought myself here.

 

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Thanks much for setting this up and also for tweeking the set-up. I greatly enjoy this distraction from the mundane of today.

I guess I am not schooled in this QB flex format. They went early and often and just kept going. I was expecting much earlier picks, but not that several would grab three so early.

Again, thanks for the format changes to make all of us think. Certainly lots of variations on strategy with so few owners and so many starters. It’s been really interesting thus far.

this is the first QB flex league I have done.....and pretty much one of the few 10 teamers I have done......not a huge fan of either to be honest, let alone a combo of both...

with the ability to start two QB's each week and them usually being the highest scoring position....they should go quick.....you probably want them to be one of your flex most weeks...and taking multiple (3 or more) is advised as not only does it probably allow 2 to score for you most weeks during byes but with higher roster limits, taking 3 or more doesn't really hurt you....

to be honest, you got a gift in being able to snag Teddy as your number two.....I almost took him at the turn instead of Bell, and I'm a little surprised he even made it back to you in the 7th, let alone you passing on him and him making it back to you in the 8th.....lol...I saw you sitting there with only Rivers on board and thought maybe you had some super duper strategy....

with only 10 teams I wanted to put more of our draft picks in play each week, so I bumped the flex to three (maybe should have done one more)....but than also went with 27 rounds to try and get deeper into the player pool a little....30 rounds felt like too much and 25 not enough.....but if I had to do it again I may have gone 4 flex and 30 rounds.....the competition in here is good enough we could have handled it.....and for most of us, not a ton else to do.....:banned:

Edited by Stinkin Ref
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Posted (edited)

damn you @OldMilwaukee for sniping Mack from me on the way down and @Shadowfax sniping DJ on the way back. Can't catch a break from you guys the last few rounds.  

On 4/14/2020 at 1:07 PM, Mr. Irrelevant said:
  • 1.05 Saquon Barkley RB3 NYG - In a superflex it would've been nice to start off with L-Jax or Mahomes, but Quon is a hell of a consolation prize.
  • 2.06 DeAndre Hopkins WR5 AZ -  "But but but WRs tend to underperform their first year with a new team!" Counterpoints: Rice, Owens, Moss ... hey, it's almost as if Hall of Fame-level talent trumps learning curves.
  • 3.05 Dak Prescott QB6 DAL - Felt like I was already tempting fate by waiting until the 3rd to consider a QB. Dak offers the best floor / ceiling combo left on the board.
  • 4.06 Aaron Rodgers QB11 GB - I had 4 WRs on predraft here but threw A-Rod atop the list as a WTF gesture. Must be my lucky day! He had arguably his two worst full seasons as a starter in '18 and '19 and still finished QB9 and QB10 in this format - hard to see how there's any real downside at all at this price.
  • 5.05 Todd Gurley RB16 ATL - If I considered RB20 good value for him in Ref's last draft before the ATL signing I almost have to jump on him here ... he moves from one of the worst run-blocking OLs to one of the best and Ryan's never been shy about involving his backs in the pass game. Health a clear concern, but with 27 rounds I can afford a few weeks on the shelf from some guys.
  • 6.06 Sam Darnold QB24 NYJ - dammit, you guys did it again - just like in our last draft I passed over QB one time and then watched a metric #### ton of them come off the board before my next pick. I still love Darnold's ability but have zero confidence in anything Adam Gase ... honestly, the best outcome for Darnold might be for Gase to get the early-season boot a la Baker with Hue.
  • 7.05 Mark Andrews TE4 BAL - without TE-premium scoring, I struggled with how early to jump here and came very close to punting the position entirely - but with only 3-4 "sure things" out there I figured the 7th wasn't too early to lock one up, since there wasn't anyone on the board at RB/WR I saw as head and shoulders above the pack.
  • 8.06 DeVante Parker WR24 MIA - absolutely no one stood out for me at this pick. I probably won't own many shares of him as the "fool's gold" potential is high IMO, but even if he fully regresses on TDs he could deliver value here on target volume alone.
  • 9.07 Kerryon Johnson RB28 DET - another guy with tons of potential who can't seem to stay healthy - maybe he can follow the Dalvin Cook path in his third year?
Edited by Mr. Irrelevant

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Team rzrback77

Nice balanced squad after the first ten rounds

QB - two so far, waited very late and I am obviously behind here, but I like both the guys I drafted to outperform their draft slot

  • P. Rivers 5.8 QB19 finished at #15 a year ago and I suspect that he will be even more motivated and the Colts have upgraded their offensive line
  • T. Bridgewater 8.3 QB25 - after the long wait gets his chance to lead a team and I am excited for him, he has overcome much

RB - four so far and I really like these guys

  • Dalvin Cook RB5 finished at RB6 last year and the Vikings should continue to involve him heavily running and receiving
  • Fournette RB15 finished at RB7 last year. Many just don't like him, but he is also heavily involved and a better receiver than given credit
  • D Singletary RB20 finished at RB33 last year, but Gore is gone and hopefully the Bills will use this weapon more in 2020
  • J K Dobbins RB? not an Ohio State fan, but I think the top tier of Rookie RBs is really close so who knows but seems like a bargain, went much later than WSL or the other one

WR - four so far and I like these four even better than my RBs

  • Julio Jones WR4 finished WR 3 last year and is always among the league leaders in targets and catches and Ryan is better in even years
  • Chris Godwin WR6 finished WR 2 last year and I think that Brady will be an excellent fit with Godwin, even more so than Evans
  • Keenan Allen WR 13 finished WR 6 last year, but lots of unknowns at QB for LAC, but might he be traded?
  • Tyler Boyd WR29 finished WR17 last year with terrible QB play, yes Green may be back but Boyd has been solid the past two years

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3 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Surprised by the DST run here, will it extend?

Not sure you should be TBH. The top 6 defenses last year (if you leave out NE as an outlier) averaged over 12ppg in Ref's brave new world scoring system ... your alternatives at this point are ~WR40 (which should come close to that average) and RB40/TE15 (which probably won't).

Yeah, for the most part defensive scoring isn't all that predictable year-to-year, but hard to envision any of the 5 taken so far not being above-average units next season.

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Not sure you should be TBH. The top 6 defenses last year (if you leave out NE as an outlier) averaged over 12ppg in Ref's brave new world scoring system ... your alternatives at this point are ~WR40 (which should come close to that average) and RB40/TE15 (which probably won't).

Yeah, for the most part defensive scoring isn't all that predictable year-to-year, but hard to envision any of the 5 taken so far not being above-average units next season.

get em while they're hot.....

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On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2020 at 5:20 PM, Stephen Holloway said:

Team rzrback77

Nice balanced squad after the first ten rounds

QB - two so far, waited very late and I am obviously behind here, but I like both the guys I drafted to outperform their draft slot

  • P. Rivers 5.8 QB19 finished at #15 a year ago and I suspect that he will be even more motivated and the Colts have upgraded their offensive line
  • T. Bridgewater 8.3 QB25 - after the long wait gets his chance to lead a team and I am excited for him, he has overcome much

RB - four so far and I really like these guys

  • Dalvin Cook RB5 finished at RB6 last year and the Vikings should continue to involve him heavily running and receiving
  • Fournette RB15 finished at RB7 last year. Many just don't like him, but he is also heavily involved and a better receiver than given credit
  • D Singletary RB20 finished at RB33 last year, but Gore is gone and hopefully the Bills will use this weapon more in 2020
  • J K Dobbins RB31 not an Ohio State fan, but I think the top tier of Rookie RBs is really close so who knows but seems like a bargain, went much later than WSL or the other one
  • Cam Akers RB34 , played QB in high school and much better than showed at Florida State. Excited to watch him in the NFL
  • Jordan Howard RB42 finished RB44 played well sporadically in Philly in only ten games, signed essentially a one-year trial contract in Miami

WR - four so far and I like these four even better than my RBs

  • Julio Jones WR4 finished WR 3 last year and is always among the league leaders in targets and catches and Ryan is better in even years
  • Chris Godwin WR6 finished WR 2 last year and I think that Brady will be an excellent fit with Godwin, even more so than Evans
  • Keenan Allen WR 13 finished WR 6 last year, but lots of unknowns at QB for LAC, but might he be traded?
  • Tyler Boyd WR29 finished WR17 last year with terrible QB play, yes Green may be back but Boyd has been solid the past two years
  • Golden Tate WR42 finished WR45 last year, but only played in 11 games, scoring double digit points in 9 and over 20 in two of those

TE - two so far, waited later than QB as the scoring here without extra ppr doesn't seem like a position to sink a lot of draft capital in

  • Jared Cook TE13 finished TE7 last year, scored 5 TDs in the last four games and meshed well with Drew Brees
  • Jack Doyle TE18 finished TE16 last year, and now Ebron is gone and Rivers should greatly improve the Colts' QB play

 

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Posted (edited)

Stinkin Ref….almost hallway home....other considerations and best picks of each round...whaaaaat.....:eek:

1.01    Lamar Jackson BAL QB1
Debated position here a little but went with QB in a potential start two league.  Him or Mahomes, went Jackson.

Best: Mr. I getting Barkley at 5.

2.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB9
Straight PPR I was eyeing top backs that get receptions.  At this turn I felt I got two of the best. 

Best: Shadowfax with Murray, could outscore both Wilson and Watson

3.01 Kenyan Drake ARI RB10
Locked down RB2 with another guy I expect to get some receptions and a ton of work

Other considerations at this turn: I sniffed Kittle and Godwin

Best: Holloway with Fournette as RB15….didn’t realize he caught the ball so much last year.

4.10 Mike Evans TBB WR11
After passing on WR with first three picks, ecstatic to see Evans make it to this turn and liked him better than some that were taken before him. 

Best: I liked BTSW with Brady as QB12…I would have taken him had he made it one more pick…Godwin in the 4th also felt solid as not one single WR went in round 3.

5.01 Jared Goff LAR QB13
Lot of pass attempts, maybe more now with Gurley gone. Felt a QB run would happen, which it did so felt compelled to get a QB here no matter what.

Other considerations at this turn: sniffed Cooper and Baker and really almost pulled the trigger on Gurley

Best: Mr. I…got a feeling Gurley’s outplays RB15

6.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR17
Once again pretty stoked to see a guy I like make it through the carnage between picks.  Love this pick here as again I prefer him more than others taken in this round. 

Best: I liked mine as good as anybody else’s.

7.01 Le’Veon Bell NYJ RB17
Bell can catch and should see a ton of work, fits and rounds out what I wanted to do at RB

Other considerations this turn: really wanted to take Metcalf and almost took Bridgewater to get that third QB.

Best: Holloway with Singletary as RB20 even though he probably should have gone QB.  

8.10 Raheem Mostert SFO RB25
Love/hate how you sit and watch it come back to you on the turns hoping things fall. I like Mostert attitude about how good he wants to be and the way he runs.  I know most let him slide because of a crowded backfield, but dude balled out at the end of the year.  Semi steal here IMO at RB25.

Best: loved my pick but also Duckboy with Metcalf as WR21    

9.01 Deebo Samuel SFO WR27
Kind of have a fantasy crush here and he is and will be finding a way onto many of my teams. Love his game.

Other considerations at this turn: thought about TE, but thought I could wait.  Sniffed Green.

Best: I guess maybe Lockett as WR28 by BTSW although I like Deboo more.

10.10 Evan Engram NYG TE6
Golden when healthy and for some reason I hate the WR’s on that team and am avoiding.

11.01 Hunter Henry LAC TE7
Decided to back that #### up dominos style.  These two guys are pretty solid in any format.  Like the core I put together at other positions already so thought I would try to make this position a tiny strength and maybe get ahead of/start the run.  If it happens, then other stuff falls to me. I think we are conditioned in here a little on the TE premium thing so when it is not premium, we may tend to look the other way a little too much. Felt I could still get good options elsewhere in the coming rounds, a little bit of a gamble, but I liked the way this made my roster look.  Both may score for me some weeks. Can ignore now for a bit.     

Other considerations at this turn: Higbee and Cam

Best: like Higbee in PPR so Mr. I

12.10 Emmanuel Sanders NOS WR39
So when I doubled up at TE the last turn, I knew I would be focusing on WR for a bit with only 3 on board.  Lots of solid guys were still out there.  Sanders lands in a great spot with a monster opposite him and a solid QB that can take advantage of sanders skill set.

Best: easy….BTSW with Newton…..he would have been one of my picks and kinda bummed, he will play for somebody and probably give BTSW a great ROI. 

13.01 Mike Williams LAC WR40
After Cam went I knew I was doubling up on WR here and it took me awhile to decide between Sanders, Williams, and Marvin Jones.  Had just saw where Marvin says he wants to catch 15 TD’s this year. Was a gut call but I went with Williams.  I think he will get more love and more than two TD’s.

Other considerations at this turn: Marvin and Lindsay

Best: Old Mil and Lindsay as RB40….that chip on his shoulder just turned into a boulder as Elway pissed him off.

:banned:
 

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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2 hours ago, Stephen Holloway said:

@by_the_sea_wannabe I really like that Brate pick, he was my #1 on my list

He was my 2nd pre draft behind Knox. 

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Stinkin Ref:

1.01 Lamar Jackson BAL QB1
2.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB9
3.01 Kenyan Drake ARI RB10
4.10 Mike Evans TBB WR11
5.01 Jared Goff LAR QB13
6.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR17
7.01 Le’Veon Bell NYJ RB17
8.10 Raheem Mostert SFO RB25
9.01 Deebo Samuel SFO WR27
10.10 Evan Engram NYG TE6
11.01 Hunter Henry LAC TE7
12.10 Emmanuel Sanders NOS WR39
13.01 Mike Williams LAC WR40


14.10 Marvin Jones DET WR46
Super stoked to see Marvin make it back after hating to pass on him at last turn. Put up 62-779-9.....:eek:.... in about 12 games and some of that without Stafford.  Not sure what that would have projected out to over 16 games, but got a feeling it might have been top 10 type of ####. Not sure you can dial up a better WR6 in the 14th round.  Not sure why people have been sleeping on him in our drafts so far.  Steal.

Best: some  solid picks this round in Howard by Bass, Doyle by SH, and and Lindsay by Old Mil.  But I like the value I got here.

15.01 Mecole Hardman KCC WR47
Best Ball gold as a WR7 in the 15th.  Don’t have to worry about when he pops, just reap the rewards when he does.  Should see more action even with everybody back and if others get hurt, he is in line for even more work. They design plays specifically for him and Mahomes will get him the rock. 

Other considerations this turn: none really but for a moment pondered a Hardman/Watkins double up. 

Best: like Sternberger by Slob and Howard by SH….warming to Howard if they don’t add something special in draft.

16.10 Justin Tucker BAL PK2
BTSW probably correctly predicted I would be snagging one here.  Can’t lie, would have liked my homer pick of Butker here, but instead decided to just to take the next best two. 

Best: Carr by Mr. I as QB30….he should hang onto the gig IMO so solid ROI here.

17.01 Will Lutz NOS PK3
Was tough to pass on some other positions, but felt good to just lock down 2 solid guys and probably secure an elite score here most weeks and maybe gain a little advantage on the field. 

Other considerations this turn: Mattison and Renfrow

Best: Mattison by Duckboy

18.10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST13
Really have no clue what to do at DST after the top 5-6. I was so pissed Renfrow didn’t make it to this turn that I didn’t care and just took Tampa. Figured maybe a Brady effect of some sort might make the DST play better. Needed to join the DST party.

Best: Renfrow by Old MIL as WR59 and its not even close.

19.01 Tyrod Taylor LAC QB31
Yes they will take somebody but Taylor could keep the job for a while if not longer and if you believe the recent coach speak he could be the guy all year.  The weapons are there for fantasy success.  Like my top two, but needed another body in case of injury, etc. 

Other considerations this turn: Preston Williams

Best: Curtis Samuel by Bass

20.10 Devonta Freeman FA RB53
Could be a steal if lands in a good spot.  Worth the dice roll in the 20th as RB53

Best: Preston Williams by Mr. I and Brate by BTSW

21.01 Seattle Seahawks DST19
Pickins were getting slim and need at least two

Other considerations this turn: Larry Fitzgerald

Best: nothing special this round 

22.10 Justin Jackson LAC RB56
Simple handcuff that should see some touches, they seem to like him, so maybe they don’t bring anybody else in.

Best: Fitzgerald by Broncos…..was really hoping he made it to me.

23.01 Duke Johnson HOU RB57
Got some all around game if needed, and decent PPR depth. DJ unreliable. Duke finished as RB30 in this format last year.

Other considerations this turn: DeSean Jackson, almost pulled the trigger, but thought he might make it back when I didn’t think Duke would. Also thought about Coleman and “hand cuffing” Mostert. Sniifed Rudolph and Cobb too. 

Best: Desean Jackson by Mr. I

24.10 Cole Beasley BUF WR76
Finished as WR34 last year, Allen will still look for him. Diggs will hurt others more than Beasley IMO.

Best: Rudolph by Duckboy

25.01 Chris Conley JAC WR77
Finished as WR43 last year.  Lee was still around at time of this pick, but now it looks even a little better.  They exercised his option so he should stay around and handle WR2 duties.

Other considerations this turn: Drob, Fells, Tyrell, Bourne.

Best: Herndon by Old Mil

26.10 Tyler Eifert JAC TE32
JAC gave him decent money, if he stays healthy should see targets.

Best: liked the Fells pick by SH

27.01 Andy Dalton CIN QB36
Tough pick here, thought about a DST but just not a ton of points there that would make a difference.  Really wanted to add Bourne here, but it was a luxury and I like my WR’s. Dalton should be playing somewhere at some point.  Add an option at a high scoring position.

Best: it’s going to be that one guy......

Other considerations at this turn: A DST, Bourne, Drob.

:banned:
 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

21.01 Seattle Seahawks DST19
Pickins were getting slim and need at least two

Like your squad very much except for the hole on defense/special teams.   You should have grabbed at least three.    The way you have set up scoring, there will be times when defense can get you very little and even lose you points!   In fact last year your two team combo would have lost you 1 point in week 3, and 5 in week 8.

I think you have enough to overcome it!   :football:

 

Edited by OldMilwaukee

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Old Milwaukee

 

QB’s:    Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow,  Dwayne Haskins.  Four at the position.

 

Allen was a :homer: pick, but still good value.  With Danny Dime going just a pick before,  it came down to Cousins vs. Rivers.   With the unknowns of the coming season,  I went with Cousins as there may be less time for River to acclimate with his new team.    Regret the Burrow pick, not too familiar with the superflex format (and having had a few too many) I panicked and took another.  :wall:  I like Tua much more but I don’t think he will see the field this year.   Really pissed off that I could have waited two to three more rounds to make this pick.  Hopefully it won't kill me.  

 

RB’s:    Aaron Jones, Marlon Mack, Ronald Jones, Phillip Lindsay, Lataviaus Murray,  Malcomb Brown, Ryquell Armstead.  Seven at the position.

 

Jones was the #10 scorer regardless of position in this format last year.  I grabbed Mack as the 23th RB off the board,  exactly how he performed in this format last year.  He has a ton of upside with the addition of Rivers, who loves to throw to running backs.   Additionally the Colts added a good fullback in free agency and plan to use him.  Lastly he missed a couple games last year (here's to good health Marlon!:banned:).  Ronald Jones might end up being the lead dog...a good risk/reward for the 13th round.   Linsday also has a good risk/reward for the 14th round...Gordon injury?  Pitch count?   Murray is the clear back up RB in a potent offense and an injury away from a starting role.  Brown was ahead of Henderson last year on the Rams depth chart.   Most expect that to change.   I am thinking perhaps it might not.  Ryquell Armstead was grabbed upon hearing the trade rumors of Fournette.   Who know?   Fournette could also get hurt or suspended (recent history).  

 

WR:     Micheal Thomas, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown,  AJ Green, Hunter Renfrow, Parris Campbell, DeDe Westbrook, Antonio Brown.  Eight at the position.  

 

Thomas was the fourth highest scorer in this format.  Kupp….many will see as a reach,  but he was WR5 in this format last year.  With Cooks gone he might see more opportunities.  I wanted him and made sure I got him.   AJ Brown should improve on his rookie season.  AJ Green should be back.   Let’s see what he has left.  Renfrow had a great finish to the season.  And is going to be a great slot receiver for Las Vegas. Campbell has no were to go but up.  Or, he could be a second round bust.  Worth the risk at WR62.  Westbrook was a desperate pick...things were getting thin.   Brown was my power ball ticket?

 

TE:     Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert,  Chris Herndon    Three at the position.

 

Waller was TE#3 in this format.  Could benefit from a rookie WR that can take the top off the defense,   Goedert is productive and an injury away from a top finish.  Herndon was all the rage in Jets camp last year.  Perhaps he will get healthy and will excel in his third year.   



 

DEF:   Steelers, Bills, Colts.    Three at the position.  

Must have three good ones.  Check

 

K:       Steven Haushka,  Randy Bullock.   Two at the position.

Almost went with one.  

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45 minutes ago, OldMilwaukee said:

Like your squad very much except for the hole on defense/special teams.   You should have grabbed at least three.    The way you have set up scoring, there will be times when defense can get you very little and even lose you points!   In fact last year your two team combo would have lost you 1 point in week 3, and 5 in week 8.

I think you have enough to overcome it!   :football:

 

kind of funny....I address this in my overall thoughts on my team post that is coming....since it's best ball culminating in total points.....I'm not sure (I could be totally wrong) but I'm not sure those "6" lost points or even more over the course of the season will be very significant in the long run if I am covering it with a really high flex total at the flex positions.....I guess kind of saying that even if I eat a donut at DST when all is said and done.....if you have the firepower at the 3 flex positions to distance yourself to cover it, you can be ok....I'm probably not saying it the right way way....

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QB: Wilson, Ryan, Wentz, Trubisky/Foles - It's Superflex baby!  Wanted to be posting two 20+ pt scores a week.  Wasn't thrilled about Wilson in the freaking second, but didn't want to be on the outside looking in.  Honestly it didn't hurt that much as Wilson/AmariCooper > Julio/Tannehill.  Added Tribisky/Foles late to secure a 4th QB.  I think I'll get more benefit than an 8th WR.

RB: Swift. Montgomery, CEH, Henderson, Scott, Coleman - Fortunately I only need to score 2 here because it will be ugly.  Just hoping to tread water and catch some lightning in a bottle with the rooks.  I do think Coleman emerges in SF.  Only need to start two.

WR: Hill, Cooper, Ridley, McLaurin, Brown, Anderson, Samuel - This group is gong to be fun and will take care of any leftover flex spots.

TE: Ertz, Howard, and oh yeah...Gronk is BACK BABY! - Spent a 6th, 14th, and 27th to get top their production.  Felt like I got lucky with Ertz in the 6th compared to Kittle in the 3rd.  I think the massive QB run had something to do with this.  Howard may get traded and Brady Gronk will flourish with Evan and Godwin demanding attention.

K: Elliot, Slaye - meh...don't score much so I didn't want to spend much here.

Def: NE, KC, Tenn, Jax - Scoring made 4 a no brainer and I strongly considered a 5th.  How crazy is the D scoring?  Worst week for these 4 last year was 0, 1, 5, and 7.  Best week 6, 24, 28, and 39.  Not sure what flex Ref got in the 17th and 20th round that will be adding 15, 25, or 35 pts a week over the 19-2=17 position players he's already rostered.

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Posted (edited)

TEAM STINKIN REF:

As mentioned not a big fan of 10 teamers so I cranked up the starting requirements to make more of our picks really count.  Only 270 players will be drafted compared to the 320 we tee up in the survivors with 20 players. I kinda look at it like we are all go to be loaded at the top and I have said before that I think rounds 8 through 13-15 or so is where you can really butter your bread and maybe where some of us separate ourselves from the pack in our home 12 team leagues. First rounds are easy and pretty much chalk, but hitting on your players in rounds 8+ when others don’t is where you win leagues IMO, because with bye weeks, injuries, etc., your depth does play.  This is also basically a 2 QB league for the most part as a second QB will occupy one of the flex most weeks for every team. I tried to lessen that impact slightly by going 5 points per passing TD.  Had a little fun with DST scoring and while I think it won’t play out as impactful as most seem to think, since you can only start two, we will see.

Let’s get to it….

1.01  Lamar Jackson BAL QB1
5.01 Jared Goff LAR QB13
19.01 Tyrod Taylor LAC QB31
27.01 Andy Dalton CIN QB36

(can start 2)

I actually expect quite a bit of fantasy regression from Jackson, but even so, in this format, it felt like he deserved a bump over the RB’s. In a 10 teamer, RB’s will be a plenty. The rest is nothing to write home about, but I trust Goff/McVay to bounce back and at least provide fantasy numbers even if it doesn’t result in wins.  Tyrod and Dalton are late hail mary’s that could be all over the map as far as how they end up/contribute.  I’m higher on Taylor keeping the job than most and it seems the same can be said for my feelings about Dalton also actually starting for somebody, as I think I have him in every draft we have done in here so far. I expect to stay in the mix here with a solid QB score each week and above average flex appeal most weeks for one of the three flex spots.

2.10 Austin Ekeler LAC RB9
3.01 Kenyan Drake ARI RB10
7.01 Le’Veon Bell NYJ RB17    
8.10 Raheem Mostert SFO RB25
20.10 Devonta Freeman FA RB53
22.10 Justin Jackson LAC RB56
23.01 Duke Johnson HOU RB57

(can start 4)

Love my top (4) and I should with some pretty heavy investment in the first 8 rounds.  But that investment allowed me to punt for about 12 rounds. (4) RB1’s with potential for (5) if Freeman lands solid.  Freeman kind of surprisingly finished RB19 in this league last year and could be a swing player for me with the potential to start (4). Jackson a solid handcuff who I saw play quite a bit as I watched most of the Charger games the last few years with my link to Ekeler.  Duke is Duke and may provide at least some PPR pop that finds it’s way into a flex spot on occasion.  Focused early on backs that catch the rock. This group of (7) should be just fine and if Mostert pops off like I think he will, I may get some distance from the field here.  A motivated solid year from Bell would be gravy. I just talked mostly about 3-7 but am hoping 1-2 carry the mail, and I have a good chance of a flex or two coming out of this group more often than not.

4.10 Mike Evans TBB WR11 
6.10 Courtland Sutton DEN WR17
9.01 Deebo Samuel SFO WR27
12.10 Emmanuel Sanders NOS WR39        
13.01 Mike Williams LAC WR40
14.10 Marvin Jones DET WR46
15.01 Mecole Hardman KCC WR47
24.10 Cole Beasley BUF WR76
25.01 Chris Conley JAC WR77

(can start 6)

Solid top (2) and man crush on Deebo with the way they get him the ball. Emmanuel in a great spot and still has game that is underrated. Williams seems to have really pissed off some people last year even though he was pretty solid even with his TD regression. I’m buying on Williams in that offense as Taylor or rookie commitment to Allen won’t be as strong. Jones straight steal.  Hardman poster child for best ball with a QB and coach that can take advantage of his speed and skillset on limited touches. Beasley and Conley two favorites in large roster leagues as they play a ton of snaps and both finished well above their draft position here. This group gonna eat. 

10.10 Evan Engram NYG TE6
11.01 Hunter Henry LAC TE7
26.10 Tyler Eifert JAC TE32

(can start 3)

Missed Gronk by a couple hours or so.  Felt bad for the guys in the predraft lineup before Bass’s pick in the last round.  Anyway, one of the only benefits of actually being on the turn is you can take both guys you are coin flipping on and/or you can get ahead or start some runs.  Perfect storm hit at the 10-11 turn as those conditioned to TE premium leagues allowed solid fantasy players at TE to slide in this one. And the run was going to happen now as everybody passed for the most part. These guys can maybe hang with some RB/WR’s. These actually aren’t my two favorite guys, I like Higbee in PPR a little, but not so sold to take him even though it is close IMO. Debated a ton at the 26-27 turn about what to do and had thoughts about not adding a third TE, but then started thinking about injuries so felt I should add a third.  Eifert wasn’t initially my first look, but I started breaking down situations etc. and he came out the winner over the other options. Red zone beast and should see targets on a bad team. Engram and Henry should be very involved.  Should get a good to great score here often and maybe an occasional flex.

16.10 Justin Tucker BAL PK2
17.01 Will Lutz NOS PK3 

(can start 2)

There are some places to gain a few points on the field, hope this is one of them. I know the DST guys will not like only taking two DST’s but I think I recoup some of that here. (if recouping DST points is even a thing).  Like at TE, kinda hoped to start a little frenzy and it did a little. BTSW and I battling for PK supremacy baby!!!

18.10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST13
21.01 Seattle Seahawks DST19

(can start 2)

So yeah, only two.  Only have to start one, probably don’t want my flex coming from here anyway as it’s too volatile. Not sure if that makes sense, but I’m rolling with it.

Overall: I feel I killed it.  Missed on a few I wanted and that happens on the turns, but happy with the end result.  Liked doubling up at the turns at TE and PK to make those a strength.  Think QB should be solid as well and I really like what I did at RB/WR.  Weakness might be DST I guess.  I am hoping somebody crunches the numbers to see if the collective group overreacted to the DST thing like the toilet paper thing or something. I avoided rookies as is usually my game, don’t see a ton of holes here. Goff, Bell, Deebo could be swing picks to a title, but I love the balance of this team with the overall consistent production and the weekly explosive pop you need in best ball. In 10 teamers, everybody is loaded, so I may be overreacting a little but I think I should contend.  Enjoyed it guys, good luck. !!!!.....:banned:
 

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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Team rzrback77

QB - took three and waited late - Rivers @ 5.8 QB 19 finished QB15 last year. When has Rivers not been motivated. He will enjoy having a much improved offensive line and should produce equal to or a bit better than 2019. Bridgewater @8.3 QB25 finished QB33 last year in limited action. Carolina is loaded with targets who seem to match Bridgewater's skills. I expect him to finish much better than ADP and with the Panthers being at (or near) the bottom of the NFC South, they will be forced to pass more than one would think with Bridgewater at the controls. Tua @16.3 QB29, I think that he is healthier than expected and will start very early for either the Dolphins or Chargers. We'll see on Thursday, but I expect him to be drafted in the top three.

RB - took six and most of them early - D. Cook @ 1.8 and RB5, finished RB7 last year. Expect similar production to a year ago with a more run-centric offense than most and he's a good receiver as well. Fournette @3.8 and RB15, finished at RB7 a year ago. He has been much maligned and may be moved from Jacksonville, but I am a believer in his abilities. Perhaps, he will out-produce expectations which seem lower than last year, he is also a decent receiver. Singletary @7.8 and RB20, finished RB33 last year when he outperformed Gore, but was not given as many opportunities. He is a great fit for the Bills' offense and he rises in 20. Two rookies @10.3 and RB31 and @11.8 and RB34. I am not sure which of the top five RBs stand out, but I got two of them kind of late and like the chances of one of them (and maybe both) producing well as rookies. Took Howard Jordan @15.8 and RB42 and he should get a lot of carries at his new home.

WR - took nine and expect most of my flex scoring here. Julio Jones @2.3 and WR4 finished at WR2 last year and is always among the league leaders in targets, catches and yards. Chris Godwin @4.3 and WR6, finished at WR3 and seems to me the better fit with Brady coming in. Gronk WHO? Keenan Allen @6.3 and WR13, finished at WR6 last year, most are expecting decreased production, but could be the perfect match for Tua. We'll see if Allen also stays among the higher targets and catches. Tyler Boyd @9.8 and WR29, finished WR18 last year and also produced in 2018. I think that he will remain the number one target for an improved offense. Golden Tate @13.8 and WR42, finished at WR45 last year missing games and is in this second year with D. Jones. James Washington @18.3 and WR57, finished at WR53 last year and who was the QB, much better with Ben R. returning. Finished up with three rookies, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk, who should all go in the top two rounds and at least one of them should be very good in 2020.

TE - took four, but all late as I did not see the benefit of scoring with no additional ppr for TE. We'll see if waiting late was a valid strategy or not. I like all four, but of course they are not expected to be top ten candidates. Jared Cook @12.3 and TE13, finished at TE7 last year and came on strong in the later stages. Jack Doyle @14.3 and TE18, finished at TE16 last year and gets improved QB play in Rivers who typically loves throwing to TEs. Gerald Everett @24.3 and TE29, finished at TE26 last year and could be featured more in two TE sets with the departure of B. Cooks. Darren Fells @26.3 and TE31, who also finished strong and the Texans seemed to have lost a pretty good receiver this off-season.

PK - took two and considered three- Went with Z. Gonzalez on the up and coming Cardinals offense and added Josh Lambo later. Both had excellent seasons last year and both have reasonable contracts, but Jacksonville may not score much.

DST - took three and most late - Eagles, Cardinals and Panthers - Yikes the Panthers have a tough conference schedule.

Focused on WR and got better TBs than I expected. I don't think  my QBs at bad, but they will not gain ground for me most weeks. If the QBs can hold their own and the TEs score more than the draft capital it took, I like my chances. I greatly enjoyed the differences in this league and the speed of the draft. Great job by all, especially the Ref Man for getting this together. Is it Thursday yet? Can't wait for the draft.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

QB: Wilson, Ryan, Wentz, Trubisky/Foles - It's Superflex baby!  Wanted to be posting two 20+ pt scores a week.  Wasn't thrilled about Wilson in the freaking second, but didn't want to be on the outside looking in.  Honestly it didn't hurt that much as Wilson/AmariCooper > Julio/Tannehill.  Added Tribisky/Foles late to secure a 4th QB.  I think I'll get more benefit than an 8th WR.

RB: Swift. Montgomery, CEH, Henderson, Scott, Coleman - Fortunately I only need to score 2 here because it will be ugly.  Just hoping to tread water and catch some lightning in a bottle with the rooks.  I do think Coleman emerges in SF.  Only need to start two.

WR: Hill, Cooper, Ridley, McLaurin, Brown, Anderson, Samuel - This group is gong to be fun and will take care of any leftover flex spots.

TE: Ertz, Howard, and oh yeah...Gronk is BACK BABY! - Spent a 6th, 14th, and 27th to get top their production.  Felt like I got lucky with Ertz in the 6th compared to Kittle in the 3rd.  I think the massive QB run had something to do with this.  Howard may get traded and Brady Gronk will flourish with Evan and Godwin demanding attention.

K: Elliot, Slaye - meh...don't score much so I didn't want to spend much here.

Def: NE, KC, Tenn, Jax - Scoring made 4 a no brainer and I strongly considered a 5th.  How crazy is the D scoring?  Worst week for these 4 last year was 0, 1, 5, and 7.  Best week 6, 24, 28, and 39.  Not sure what flex Ref got in the 17th and 20th round that will be adding 15, 25, or 35 pts a week over the 19-2=17 position players he's already rostered.

have never been a numbers guy for the most part, so I can't really answer this other than in my mind, it is kind of a collective effort approach....if my flexes outscore yours, I don't care what position it comes from......I do know that at least 2 of the picks you made between 15 and 20 won't be scoring for you each week.....in a start 13 league....

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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Little air out of the tires on OJ and Brate which seemed really solid at the time...crazy

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With a QB most likely filling one of the three flex positions and only being able to start 2 dst max....that means we are really only talking about one spot each week......I’ll take my chances one of my RBs/WR/TE outscore your DST2.....

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On 4/12/2020 at 11:32 PM, Stinkin Ref said:

https://www80.myfantasyleague.com/2020/home/54406#0

invites have been sent....

please review the  rules and scoring.....don't want to explain them all here....feel free to make suggestions for changes, etc.....I threw this together very quickly so may have made some mistakes, but I think it looks ok initially...

27 rounds......best ball

QB 1-2

RB 2-4

WR 3-6

TE 1-3

PK 1-2

DST 1-2

so basically 3 flex

Straight PPR 

 

7 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

have never been a numbers guy for the most part, so I can't really answer this other than in my mind, it is kind of a collective effort approach....if my flexes outscore yours, I don't care what position it comes from......I do know that at least 2 of the picks you made between 15 and 20 won't be scoring for you each week.....in a start 13 league....

It's a start 12, you need to bump the starters down one.

1/2/3/1/1/1 + 3 Flex = 12.

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Team Bro1ncos

 

QB - Mahomes, Mayfield, Fitzmagic - Picking early meant I had to secure a top QB knowing there would be significant number of QB's off the board before my second pick. Mahomes should be a top 3 QB barring injury. I think/hope Mayfield progresses in season 3 and has significant weapons to do so. Fitz will have his weeks, it is just a matter of how many he will actually play since he could be benched early when Dolphins "see what they have" with young guys at some point.

 

RB - Josh Jacobs, James Connor, Mark Ingram, Royce Freeman, Rashad Penny, Jaylen Samuels - Glad I can get by with only starting 2 RB's. I might get a few weeks of 3 scores but barring injury to any of my top 3 I should be able to get two solid scores each week. Jacobs looks like he could be a stud. Connor/Samuels should be a decent RB2/3 and should have better opportunities with Ben back at QB. Ingram is going to get volume with one of the top rushing teams in the league. Freeman and Penny may never score enough to count unless injuries occur.

 

WR - Brandin Cooks, Diggs, Fitzgerald, N'Keal Harry, Allen Lazard, JuJu, Adam Thielen, Henry Ruggs, Denzel Mims - I rewally like this group and could have multiple weeks of starting 5-6 from this group. Cooks get an upgrade at QB but has never seemed to live up to his talent week to week. I love Diggs in Buffalo with Allen throwing him the ball. Fitz as a #2 is still going to produce numbers even at an advanced age and loved getting him in the 22nd. Really don't have a clue what happens with N'Keal and a uncertain QB situation, like his talent but will be a wait and see approach. Lazard is in a passing offense with a very good QB that seems to have a connection with. JuJu should return to top 20 status with Ben back at QB. Thielen becomes the defacto #1 in MN and should be a top option in a solid offense. Ruggs and Mims are abnormal for me as I don't typically take rookies in these drafts before I  where they end up after the draft, but with this deep WR draft there are going to be 4-5 rookie WR that produce solid numbers this year and hopefully I hit with one or both of these guys.

 

TE - Kelce, Austin Hooper, Dawson Knox - Wasn't really a plan to pair my top 2 TE's with their QB's but I am not disappointed in doing so. I think I should be able to regularly get 2 scores each week.  Kelce is still going to be a top 2-3 TE and him and Mahomes should produce on a almost weekly basis. I think Hooper has been underrated for a couple seasons now and now comes into what could be a very high powered offense that has the potential to be in multiple shootouts this season. I like Knox and look for him to show significant improvement in year 2. 

 

PK - Gould, McManus, Jason Myers - I wanted to get 3 kickers that should be fairly secure in their roster spots. Feel really good about Gould and McManus.

 

DEF - Ravens, Bills, Lions - planned on taking 3 here and got 3.

 

Overall I really like this team, but I think you can always say that after a 10 team draft. I would have felt even better if I hadn't got sniped a few times in the middle rounds, but drafting with you guys over the last few years has made that a very common occurrence.

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Tie a bow on this one ...

3.05 Dak Prescott QB6 DAL
4.06 Aaron Rodgers QB11 GB
6.06 Sam Darnold QB24 NYJ
16.06 Derek Carr QB30 LV

With this scoring system 2 QBs will be starting almost every week, so solid depth was a must. Expected to find myself behind the 8-ball after starting Barkley / Hopkins, but Dak (QB2 last season) falling to me alleviated that - he and A-Rod both seem like top-10 floor names. Getting those two plus 2 more likely every-week starters (at least for now) was a gift. It's inconceivable to me that I landed Carr 100 picks after Darnold. They're basically the same guy!

1.05 Saquon Barkley RB3 NYG
5.05 Todd Gurley RB16 ATL
9.05 Kerryon Johnson RB28 DET
11.05 Kareem Hunt RB33 CLE
17.05 Tony Pollard RB43 DAL
21.05 Justice Hill RB54 BAL

No need to go deeper than 6 here with Saquon up top - might not have even bothered with 6 if we didn't have 27 rounds. Most of the film-watchers I've read say Gurley still has it - we'll see if a change of scenery and a better OL unlocks "it". I refuse to quit Kerryon just because of injuries, for the same reason I refused to quit Dalvin heading into last season - let's see if the Lions agree with me or if they move on in the draft this weekend. Hunt (still one of the 12 most talented backs in the league IMO) offers PPR stability plus league-winning upside with a Chubb injury. Mentioned in Ref's last draft that I'll own Hill everywhere at this price ... apparently I meant it. Should be an average or better group overall.

2.06 DeAndre Hopkins WR5 AZ
8.06 DeVante Parker WR24 MIA
10.06 Marquise Brown WR34 BAL
13.05 Will Fuller WR41 HOU
15.05 Sammy Watkins WR51 KC
20.06 Preston Williams WR63 MIA
23.05 DeSean Jackson WR72 PHI
26.06 Kelvin Harmon WR83 WAS

At first glance I didn't think this was a bad grouping and then I thought, "wait a minute, this isn't a 16-team survivor, it's a 10-teamer." :unsure: Pretty clearly my weak link. But! I've got one stud up top and a whole bunch of best-ball darlings who can put up 25+ any given week, and with my depth at QB/DST I'll rarely need more than one flex score from this group... so I should be able to keep my head above water here. Thought about passing on the Bengals' DST for Auden Tate in the 27th ... we'll see if that decision comes back to bite me.

7.05 Mark Andrews TE4 BAL
14.06 Jonnu Smith TE19 TEN
18.06 Irv Smith TE23 MIN

Young group with immense talent and plenty of opportunity upside, as Walker's departure makes Jonnu the #1 (and potentially #2 target in Tenny, period) and the Diggs deal opens up a bunch of targets in Minny. Even if Andrews can't hit double-digit TDs again, if one of the Smith brothers steps up I should be just fine here.

12.06 49ers DST2 SF
19.05 Broncos DST15 DEN
24.06 Browns DST24 CLE
27.05 Bengals DST28 CIN

Even if they score about the same - and DST28 and WR85 probably will so, ummmm, good on Ref for predicting that ahead of time when he mocked up this scoring :lol: - I have a hunch that getting the 2nd best of 4 DST scores as a flex every week will boost my team score more than having 6 WR flex options rather than 5 will. It's math! I'm kidding. I have no idea what the math says. But I'm rolling with it.  

22.06 Mason Crosby PK16 GB
25.05 Michael Badgley PK20 LAC

Spent the bare minimum to get two solid guys with job security. Anything I get for flex scores here is gravy.

If you told me before 2 weeks ago there'd ever be a best-ball mock where I'd wind up taking 4 QB and 4 DST I'd have backed away from you slowly. So thanks to Ref for coming up with something a little new and different. Though the first 5 rounds I thought I had the best team hands-down, but found myself flailing a little in the mid-rounds as guys I really liked got sniped, runs I expected to materialize didn't and vice versa. As usual in these best-balls I've got very little in the way of safe and steady names ... this approach has gotten me in trouble in many a survivor but has paid big dividends for me in season-long best balls like prior years' MFL10s ... we'll see how well it works here.

Best of luck to all and look forward to drafting with you fools again on Monday. :pickle:

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11 hours ago, Stinkin Ref said:

I am hoping somebody crunches the numbers to see if the collective group overreacted to the DST thing like the toilet paper thing or something. 

I don't have a ton of time to dive into it, but of the 31 DSTs (excluding Oakland) that MFL shows last year's scoring for:

  • 20+ points in a week: 26/31 did it at least once, 15 2+ times, 8 3+ times
  • 15+ points in a week: 30/31 did it at least once, 28 2+ times, 24 3+ times, 16 4+ times

So a middle-of-the-pack defense in this scoring had about as many flex-able weeks as Sony Michel, Robby Anderson or Sterling Shepard ... guys who finished in the RB30 / WR40 range ... but were going off the board 5-6 rounds later in this draft.

Even if we're all really bad at predicting what defenses will score best for fantasy from one year to the next ... and we are ... if you have 3 bullets in the chamber you've got a decent chance of two 10+ point scorers any given week even if they all wind up being mediocre real-life defenses ... with 4 those odds might be closer to 80-90% if I had to guess. How early would you have to draft a group of 3-4 RB's or WR's in order to be pretty certain you'll get 2 double-digit scores out of them each week? A whole lot earlier than the 16th, 18th, 20th rounds IMO.

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Number of weeks DST had a negative score: /total neg points 

none:   Patriots/Broncos

one:     Titans -2,  Bears-3,  Bills-3,  Saints-5,  Niners-8,  Steelers-9,  Colts-10

Two:    Vikings-3,  Jets-4,  Cowboys-4,  Chiefs-6,  Bucs-13,  Ravens-16,  Falcons-18

Three:  Chargers-7,  Seahawks-8,  Eagles-15,  Rams-19,  Jags-24

Four:   Packers-13,  Texans-26,  

Five:    Panthers-22,  Bengals-25

Six:    Giants-29,  Browns-30,  Lions-36

Seven:  Redskins-42,  Cardinals-42

Eight:   Miami-38

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Tie a bow on this one ...

3.05 Dak Prescott QB6 DAL
4.06 Aaron Rodgers QB11 GB
6.06 Sam Darnold QB24 NYJ
16.06 Derek Carr QB30 LV

With this scoring system 2 QBs will be starting almost every week, so solid depth was a must. Expected to find myself behind the 8-ball after starting Barkley / Hopkins, but Dak (QB2 last season) falling to me alleviated that - he and A-Rod both seem like top-10 floor names. Getting those two plus 2 more likely every-week starters (at least for now) was a gift. It's inconceivable to me that I landed Carr 100 picks after Darnold. They're basically the same guy!

1.05 Saquon Barkley RB3 NYG
5.05 Todd Gurley RB16 ATL
9.05 Kerryon Johnson RB28 DET
11.05 Kareem Hunt RB33 CLE
17.05 Tony Pollard RB43 DAL
21.05 Justice Hill RB54 BAL

No need to go deeper than 6 here with Saquon up top - might not have even bothered with 6 if we didn't have 27 rounds. Most of the film-watchers I've read say Gurley still has it - we'll see if a change of scenery and a better OL unlocks "it". I refuse to quit Kerryon just because of injuries, for the same reason I refused to quit Dalvin heading into last season - let's see if the Lions agree with me or if they move on in the draft this weekend. Hunt (still one of the 12 most talented backs in the league IMO) offers PPR stability plus league-winning upside with a Chubb injury. Mentioned in Ref's last draft that I'll own Hill everywhere at this price ... apparently I meant it. Should be an average or better group overall.

2.06 DeAndre Hopkins WR5 AZ
8.06 DeVante Parker WR24 MIA
10.06 Marquise Brown WR34 BAL
13.05 Will Fuller WR41 HOU
15.05 Sammy Watkins WR51 KC
20.06 Preston Williams WR63 MIA
23.05 DeSean Jackson WR72 PHI
26.06 Kelvin Harmon WR83 WAS

At first glance I didn't think this was a bad grouping and then I thought, "wait a minute, this isn't a 16-team survivor, it's a 10-teamer." :unsure: Pretty clearly my weak link. But! I've got one stud up top and a whole bunch of best-ball darlings who can put up 25+ any given week, and with my depth at QB/DST I'll rarely need more than one flex score from this group... so I should be able to keep my head above water here. Thought about passing on the Bengals' DST for Auden Tate in the 27th ... we'll see if that decision comes back to bite me.

7.05 Mark Andrews TE4 BAL
14.06 Jonnu Smith TE19 TEN
18.06 Irv Smith TE23 MIN

Young group with immense talent and plenty of opportunity upside, as Walker's departure makes Jonnu the #1 (and potentially #2 target in Tenny, period) and the Diggs deal opens up a bunch of targets in Minny. Even if Andrews can't hit double-digit TDs again, if one of the Smith brothers steps up I should be just fine here.

12.06 49ers DST2 SF
19.05 Broncos DST15 DEN
24.06 Browns DST24 CLE
27.05 Bengals DST28 CIN

Even if they score about the same - and DST28 and WR85 probably will so, ummmm, good on Ref for predicting that ahead of time when he mocked up this scoring :lol: - I have a hunch that getting the 2nd best of 4 DST scores as a flex every week will boost my team score more than having 6 WR flex options rather than 5 will. It's math! I'm kidding. I have no idea what the math says. But I'm rolling with it.  

22.06 Mason Crosby PK16 GB
25.05 Michael Badgley PK20 LAC

Spent the bare minimum to get two solid guys with job security. Anything I get for flex scores here is gravy.

If you told me before 2 weeks ago there'd ever be a best-ball mock where I'd wind up taking 4 QB and 4 DST I'd have backed away from you slowly. So thanks to Ref for coming up with something a little new and different. Though the first 5 rounds I thought I had the best team hands-down, but found myself flailing a little in the mid-rounds as guys I really liked got sniped, runs I expected to materialize didn't and vice versa. As usual in these best-balls I've got very little in the way of safe and steady names ... this approach has gotten me in trouble in many a survivor but has paid big dividends for me in season-long best balls like prior years' MFL10s ... we'll see how well it works here.

Best of luck to all and look forward to drafting with you fools again on Monday. :pickle:

I think Kerryon in the 9th and Carr in the 16th were huge steals.

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Posted (edited)

Number of weeks Defense/special teams had a double digit score:

12: Steelers, Ravans

11: Patriots

10: Niners, Bills

9:  Rams, Saints, 

8: Jets

7: Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Bucs, Bears, Chargers, Falcons,

6: Cowboys, Redskins, Vikings

5: Broncos, Titans, Jags, Browns, Texans,

4: Packers, Bengals, Lions

3: Seahawks, Panthers, Giants, Dolphins

2: Cardinals

 

Edited by OldMilwaukee

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In a 10 team league....there should be plenty of extra QB/RB/WR/TE/PK that also have double digit scores like the DST's so I don't really see the issue.....if you want to say there was more "value" cause you were able to take the corresponding DST later, thats fine......but when the rubber meets the road in your lineup each week, it doesn't really matter what position that flex comes from.....and in the case of the DST, we are really only talking (1) extra spot the DST can occupy....so I look at it like you have say 8-10 other roster spots battling that (1) other DST to fill that one flex spot each week....lots of other darts from other positions to throw at that one additional flex spot the DST may fill....:shrug:....I don't know, I may be looking at it all wrong....

but I don't care if it is my WR9 taken in the 25th round or my TE3 taken in the 27th round.....or my DST2 taken in the 21st round that fills that spot.....I just want  the highest score possible in there.....some may think a DST gives you the best "shot" at a higher score....and  maybe the numbers say that....maybe not....guess it all depends on your roster make up....

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37 minutes ago, Stinkin Ref said:

In a 10 team league....there should be plenty of extra QB/RB/WR/TE/PK that also have double digit scores like the DST's so I don't really see the issue.....if you want to say there was more "value" cause you were able to take the corresponding DST later, thats fine......but when the rubber meets the road in your lineup each week, it doesn't really matter what position that flex comes from.....and in the case of the DST, we are really only talking (1) extra spot the DST can occupy....so I look at it like you have say 8-10 other roster spots battling that (1) other DST to fill that one flex spot each week....lots of other darts from other positions to throw at that one additional flex spot the DST may fill....:shrug:....I don't know, I may be looking at it all wrong....

but I don't care if it is my WR9 taken in the 25th round or my TE3 taken in the 27th round.....or my DST2 taken in the 21st round that fills that spot.....I just want  the highest score possible in there.....some may think a DST gives you the best "shot" at a higher score....and  maybe the numbers say that....maybe not....guess it all depends on your roster make up....

I'm not gonna bang on this topic because like I said, I haven't really done the math, but one more point here specifically.

For sure the bolded is the case in regular fantasy leagues - my goal there is to score the most total points each week and I don't care where they come from. But in best-ball, variance plays a role too ... assuming rosters are deep enough, all other things being equal it's usually better to take the higher-variance guy or position.

DST's are crazy-high variance just in fantasy scoring in general, but especially in your format here ... so even if a middling DST gives me the same 9ppg average as someone like Duke Johnson, they're gonna play in my starting lineup a lot more often. Assuming I bundle 3 (or maybe even 4) of them, I basically get all the upside with none of the downside (I mean, there'd be downside if we only had 18-man rosters like in some of the survivors, but with 27 I'll probably have that 8-10 points to fall back on anyway if I need them).

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Posted (edited)

if we are using double digits.....10 points or more as our breaking point so to speak

(*****for the purpose of this exercise I'm ignoring QB)

37 RB's averaged 10 points or more per week last year

57 WR's

11 TE

2 PK

9 DST

if you draft a RB they have (4) slots they can fill

WR......(6) slots

TE.....(3) slots

PK.....(2)

DST....(2)

so to me....I'll take my chances in the 37+57+11 = (105) area....cause they also have more "slots" they can fit into for me each week......if I could start more than (2) a week I would be inclined to agree and maybe jump on the DST train a little more.....as obviously the more you could start, the more valuable they would be.....I just don't think when it comes out in the wash that your second DST is going to count for you that much more then one of your extra RB/WR/TE.....in fact I think if they do, you may be in a world of hurt......you can only have so many of those top (9)....based on last year only two owners have 2 or more of those top (9) (Duckboy and Broncos)....

but to be honest....I still have no ####### idea what I am talking about.....:pickle:

Edited by Stinkin Ref

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1 hour ago, Stinkin Ref said:

if we are using double digits.....10 points or more as our breaking point so to speak

(*****for the purpose of this exercise I'm ignoring QB)

37 RB's averaged 10 points or more per week last year

57 WR's

11 TE

2 PK

9 DST

if you draft a RB they have (4) slots they can fill

WR......(6) slots

TE.....(3) slots

PK.....(2)

DST....(2)

so to me....I'll take my chances in the 37+57+11 = (105) area....cause they also have more "slots" they can fit into for me each week......if I could start more than (2) a week I would be inclined to agree and maybe jump on the DST train a little more.....as obviously the more you could start, the more valuable they would be.....I just don't think when it comes out in the wash that your second DST is going to count for you that much more then one of your extra RB/WR/TE.....in fact I think if they do, you may be in a world of hurt......you can only have so many of those top (9)....based on last year only two owners have 2 or more of those top (9) (Duckboy and Broncos)....

but to be honest....I still have no ####### idea what I am talking about.....:pickle:

Ref is great at drafting Defenses, I gave him Def 5 and 15.

Bass is just average at drafting D, I gave him Def 6, 16, 17, and 25.

Refs defense score on the year is 212.5, Bass posts 310.5.

Bass is 98 points ahead.

But wait, Ref has more bullets.  Given we all have more bullets, let's say you need to score 10 points for a flex score to count.  Based on where Def 16 and 25 went, Ref gets RB50, WR60, RB60, and WR75.  Just to prove a point and based we know Ref is a great drafter, we'll give him weekly the best score of RB50/WR60 and RB60/WR75.  Of those, Ref gets 12 flex scored of 10 pts or better.  The additional points over a base 10 pt score is 25 points.

The second D for Bass score 10 points or better only 9 times to Refs 12, however the net improvement over a 10 point baseline is 30 points.  Bass gains yet another 5 points over Ref.

Let's look at Refs first 6 WR and see what type of flex score would be needed to count.  WR11/17/27/39/40/46.  11,12,7,8,8,7,2,12,5,8,8,11,7,17,10,4,5 would be Refs WR4 score from the first 6 drafted WR.  That total is 142 points.  Replacing the scores above with the best score from all 4 bullets (in reality Ref only gets two bullets) is 194.  So Ref is looking at only gaining 54 points when I giving him 4 additional picks.

But RB...Ref took RB9/10/17/25.  His 3rd RB score is 10,7,13,10,8,13,0,0,15,10,14,16,7,10,14,17,13.  His RB3 score is 177.  Giving him 4 bullets again, he's improving his score to 229 or a gain of 52 pts with four add'l picks.  That however is inflated because half those points were replacing zeros which wouldn't have been there with his WR4-6 scores available.

I that where Ref's strategy of two extra bullets falls short is not taking into consideration that this is only a 10 teamer and his RB/WR/TE  will be posting big scores that will be hard for the extra bullets to eclipse.  Those extra bullets are further diluted because it's really not his extra two bullets to my zero, it's more like his extra 12 to my 10.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Ref is great at drafting Defenses, I gave him Def 5 and 15.

Bass is just average at drafting D, I gave him Def 6, 16, 17, and 25.

Refs defense score on the year is 212.5, Bass posts 310.5.

Bass is 98 points ahead.

But wait, Ref has more bullets.  Given we all have more bullets, let's say you need to score 10 points for a flex score to count.  Based on where Def 16 and 25 went, Ref gets RB50, WR60, RB60, and WR75.  Just to prove a point and based we know Ref is a great drafter, we'll give him weekly the best score of RB50/WR60 and RB60/WR75.  Of those, Ref gets 12 flex scored of 10 pts or better.  The additional points over a base 10 pt score is 25 points.

The second D for Bass score 10 points or better only 9 times to Refs 12, however the net improvement over a 10 point baseline is 30 points.  Bass gains yet another 5 points over Ref.

Let's look at Refs first 6 WR and see what type of flex score would be needed to count.  WR11/17/27/39/40/46.  11,12,7,8,8,7,2,12,5,8,8,11,7,17,10,4,5 would be Refs WR4 score from the first 6 drafted WR.  That total is 142 points.  Replacing the scores above with the best score from all 4 bullets (in reality Ref only gets two bullets) is 194.  So Ref is looking at only gaining 54 points when I giving him 4 additional picks.

But RB...Ref took RB9/10/17/25.  His 3rd RB score is 10,7,13,10,8,13,0,0,15,10,14,16,7,10,14,17,13.  His RB3 score is 177.  Giving him 4 bullets again, he's improving his score to 229 or a gain of 52 pts with four add'l picks.  That however is inflated because half those points were replacing zeros which wouldn't have been there with his WR4-6 scores available.

I that where Ref's strategy of two extra bullets falls short is not taking into consideration that this is only a 10 teamer and his RB/WR/TE  will be posting big scores that will be hard for the extra bullets to eclipse.  Those extra bullets are further diluted because it's really not his extra two bullets to my zero, it's more like his extra 12 to my 10.

 

 

you had me at Ref is great....:wub:

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Posted (edited)

Brady, T
Newton, C
Stafford, M  

yes, please. love the trio as long as newton finds a home

 Chubb, N
Edmonds, C
Henry, D
McCaffrey, C
Taylor, J    

was the plan going in, take 4 and then load up at wr

Chark, D
Crowder, J
Johnson, T
Kirk, C
Landry, J
Lockett, T
Reagor, J
Robinson, A
Shenault, L  

i don't know, rumors about kirk. hopefully will get some pop from the rooks. be easier to evaluate sunday

 Brate, C
Ebron, E
Gesicki, M
Olsen, G    

if Howard is traded, brate will probably still be solid. 

Butker, H
Prater, M
Zuerlein, G    

went lower end dt, so hopefully  i went big here

Chargers, L
Packers, G
Texans, H

think i got solid value here

Edited by by_the_sea_wannabe

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