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Has the cure become worse than the disease?

Has the cure become worse than the disease?  

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9 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

We don't usually blink at things that kill 40,000 people either. If we hit 60K on this, it will equal a really bad flu season. That's not saying this is the equivalent of the flu in terms of danger. This is clearly more contagious if not more deadly if contracted. You tell me why something that rarely kills young, healthy people has made us so powerless to common sense combative measures.

60k is over an entire year. We've had almost 40k dead in about 6 weeks or so. It's not the flu. It's worse.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Kal El said:

60k is over an entire year. We've had almost 40k dead in about 6 weeks or so. It's not the flu. It's worse.

For one, 60K from the flu is not over an entire year, it's over a 5-6 month season. We might not be all that far away from 60K over a similar amount of time when this is all measured in the end. But yes the 40K over the last 6 weeks is an inescapable truth. Thus why this requires more measures than simply riding it out. The point stands that we write off death in far greater numbers than this all the time.

Also, welcome back @Ranethe and thank you for the continued support. Your making my community reputation numbers look outstanding!

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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10 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

For one, 60K from the flu is not over an entire year, it's over a 5-6 month season. We might not be all that far away from 60K over a similar amount of time when this is all measured in the end. But yes the 40K over the last 6 weeks is an inescapable truth. Thus why this requires more measures than simply riding it out. The point stands that we write off death in far greater numbers than this all the time.

Also, welcome back @Ranethe and thank you for the continued support. Your making my community reputation numbers look outstanding!

Ok, let's take a look at the math. The CDC breaks down flu deaths by year, hence the 60k(which is the upper end of the scale, by the way). As of post time, the US is sitting at *checks notes* 40,416 deaths over roughly 6.5 weeks. Why 6.5 weeks? Because dividing 52 by 8 gives us 6.5, and I try to keep math easy for my own sanity. Now since Covid-19 has no known season of effectiveness, we could multiply the current deaths by 8 to get a possible total of 323,328 dead in a year, but that could be a higher end. Since the flu season can last up to 6 months, let's multiply the deaths by 4 instead, giving us 161,664 dead, or just a shade under 2.7 times the body count of a terrible flu season. That's with social distancing at least slowing the illness down, which if relaxed prematurely, will likely explode out of control and do far greater damage than the simple inconvenience of damaging the economy. 

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Just now, Kal El said:

Ok, let's take a look at the math. The CDC breaks down flu deaths by year, hence the 60k(which is the upper end of the scale, by the way). As of post time, the US is sitting at *checks notes* 40,416 deaths over roughly 6.5 weeks. Why 6.5 weeks? Because dividing 52 by 8 gives us 6.5, and I try to keep math easy for my own sanity. Now since Covid-19 has no known season of effectiveness, we could multiply the current deaths by 8 to get a possible total of 323,328 dead in a year, but that could be a higher end. Since the flu season can last up to 6 months, let's multiply the deaths by 4 instead, giving us 161,664 dead, or just a shade under 2.7 times the body count of a terrible flu season. That's with social distancing at least slowing the illness down, which if relaxed prematurely, will likely explode out of control and do far greater damage than the simple inconvenience of damaging the economy. 

And all that math is without the added common sense measures we could we doing and will be embracing going forward. Like I said, this requires more than simply riding it out and accepting losses. But blanket shut down of society is not the appropriate response for a sustained period if it leads to different death and suffering.

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8 hours ago, TripItUp said:

22 million jobs lost and counting with numbers only matched by the Great Depression 

countless small businesses going under 

Local governments running out of money for services like police officers 

psychological and physical toll of shelter in place 

long term ramifications of federal govt debt 

 

At what point do we accept the risk?  The experts continue to revise their fatality number down.

Regarding the bolded, excluding the sad situation in NYC and possibly a couple other large cities, within the next month. We will have learned a lot about what we are facing and the new normal will implement all social distancing requirements. We will adapt and get through this. No doubt it's a scary virus but life can't shut down forever and it will be time to start transitioning into our new normal. 

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28 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

For one, 60K from the flu is not over an entire year, it's over a 5-6 month season. We might not be all that far away from 60K over a similar amount of time when this is all measured in the end. But yes the 40K over the last 6 weeks is an inescapable truth. Thus why this requires more measures than simply riding it out. The point stands that we write off death in far greater numbers than this all the time.

Also, welcome back @Ranethe and thank you for the continued support. Your making my community reputation numbers look outstanding!

When he gets all the aliases going it's quite the boost!

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1 minute ago, Mr Anonymous said:

And all that math is without the added common sense measures we could we doing and will be embracing going forward. Like I said, this requires more than simply riding it out and accepting losses. But blanket shut down of society is not the appropriate response for a sustained period if it leads to different death and suffering.

That's a colossal "if" in that last statement. I have yet to hear of anyone starving to death yet, in fact, apparently many are gaining weight in quarantine. Yes, service and entertainment industries have taken a massive hit, which is unfortunate, however those industries, especially the latter, are luxuries. Things we can live without, while life goes on.

Now, this isn't going to go on forever, and most of those jobs will return at some point in the future. But to continuously harp on "but the economy!" when people are still dying at distressing rates shows a callousness that I want no part of. The economy can wait. People's lives cannot. I don't know why I have to keep repeating this point, but I will for as long as I have to, until people finally understand.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

And all that math is without the added common sense measures we could we doing and will be embracing going forward. Like I said, this requires more than simply riding it out and accepting losses. But blanket shut down of society is not the appropriate response for a sustained period if it leads to different death and suffering.

What blanket shut down of society? The majority of jobs in this country have been deemed essential, and some states haven't even shut down anything at all.

Your continued use of hyperbole to argue your case shows me that you're not even level headed on the facts. 

Edited by Death Bytes
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7 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

I think the greatest country in the world should be able to figure it out, like other countries have.

We need more testing. And it's not up to 50 individual states to do it. We need a clear, national plan.

How are you going to force people to get tested?

 

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Just now, Death Bytes said:

What blanket shut down of society? The majority of jobs in this country have been deemed essential, and some states haven't even shut down anything at all.

You're continued use of hyperbole to argue your case shows me that you're not even level headed on the facts. 

95% of the country is under some sort of stay at home. Of which a very large number cannot WFH. A vast majority of Americans carry less than $500 in their bank accounts. I'm sorry you can't comprehend how dramatically this is affecting millions of people. Then again I'm not surprised. The people in those living circumstances don't typically spend a lot of time on hobby message forums. 

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:
7 hours ago, Amused to Death said:

I think the greatest country in the world should be able to figure it out, like other countries have.

We need more testing. And it's not up to 50 individual states to do it. We need a clear, national plan.

How are you going to force people to get tested?

 

No one said anything about force. So far we've tested less than 1.5% of the population (I heard what, 4 million have been tested?). More testing. Pretty sure the medical community is united in that.

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8 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

How are you going to force people to get tested?

 

Get tested before being able to go back to work? 

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3 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

No one said anything about force. So far we've tested less than 1.5% of the population (I heard what, 4 million have been tested?). More testing. Pretty sure the medical community is united in that.

Our country can barely get more than half the population off the couch to vote for President, how many do you anticipate voluntarily heading to the hospital for a swab up the nose and down the throat? Not to mention the asymptomatic carriers, how many of the "it's just allergies" guys or the don't give an F people 47.7% that don't even make the effort to vote ? More tests sounds great, not coming close to fixing this though. 

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8 hours ago, jon_mx said:

It is an absurd price to pay.  Let's say you had tens of millions of dollars and could guarantee several hundreds of your friends and family could have jobs and make a decent living.  Would you give that all up if you were in your late 70's with cancer and only had a few years to live at best?  

I was wondering why this thread exploded, jon_dethSkwad.

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Get tested before being able to go back to work? 

Can we do that legally? 

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6 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

95% of the country is under some sort of stay at home. Of which a very large number cannot WFH. A vast majority of Americans carry less than $500 in their bank accounts. I'm sorry you can't comprehend how dramatically this is affecting millions of people. Then again I'm not surprised. The people in those living circumstances don't typically spend a lot of time on hobby message forums. 

So let's open the country back up without a vaccine or herd immunity in place(which if we do so within the next month absolutely will be the case), exposing them and their loved ones to unnecessary risk of infection/ transmission so now in addition to living check to check, they miss work, putting them firmly in that debt hole, all for the sake of reopening the economy.

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12 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

How are you going to force people to get tested?

 

Who here among us is opposed to testing, strawman?

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Well, states are opening back up without the elaborate testing many in this thread are mandating. 
 

we’ll see how it goes. 

What do you mean "opening back up"?  What exactly are you talking about that's happening?

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3 minutes ago, Kal El said:

So let's open the country back up without a vaccine or herd immunity in place(which if we do so within the next month absolutely will be the case), exposing them and their loved ones to unnecessary risk of infection/ transmission so now in addition to living check to check, they miss work, putting them firmly in that debt hole, all for the sake of reopening the economy.

Good strawman because absolutely no one is saying that. Keep ignoring the common sense measures and living on the extremes.

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6 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

Can we do that legally? 

Private companies probably. How many test for drugs?

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2 hours ago, beef said:

Why can't we do both?  Why does everything always have to be one or the other.  Seems to me we can follow these phases with the Feds help and allow those that are able to continue distancing.  Maybe I don't know the phase plan we'll enough but thought it had to do with easing back in.

I can easily keep distancing.  Just need my boss to approve telework for a year+ which is 100% feasable and has been successful.  Arguable more productive.  I know I'm just one of millions able to do this too.  And that's all I need for my family to play a part in cure.  

 

You are exactly right. It's obvious opening things back up doesn't mean we go back to the way things were before, there are many precautions we can all take. Ranting about testing is a waste of time unless there is a plan on how to test everyone. This free country we all love isn't very conducive to forcing people to do things like this. We hit the pause button to regroup, in the coming weeks it's time to start thinking about how each of us is going to adapt to the new normal and move forward. 

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

You are exactly right. It's obvious opening things back up doesn't mean we go back to the way things were before, there are many precautions we can all take. Ranting about testing is a waste of time unless there is a plan on how to test everyone. This free country we all love isn't very conducive to forcing people to do things like this. We hit the pause button to regroup, in the coming weeks it's time to start thinking about how each of us is going to adapt to the new normal and move forward. 

What are you trying to say here?

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10 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

Who here among us is opposed to testing, strawman?

You may not understand this country very well, apologies you may be one of the ranters that lives in Europe?

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And we're not even discussing the growing number of people throwing caution to the wind in defiance of the current stay at home and social distancing measures. Another fatal flaw in simple blanket controls. If these people are going to start treating this like it's no big deal than we better start coming up with some better plans.

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Just now, Daywalker said:

What are you trying to say here?

What part are you struggling with?

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We can discuss this all we want, but ultimately we are going to get a live viewing of what happens. Was Florida relaxing restrictions good or bad, or rural areas having less strict shelter in place rules good or bad? We just need to wait a month and we will find out. There are going to be full chapters of textbooks going over this, especially with different country/state responses vs outcome to give direction for future pandemics. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

The study I mentioned earlier about risks of coming out and how it could affect us even more than the current shut down.

http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

Is this like the study that predicted 2 million deaths? In other words, is "coming out" a free for all without any safety measures? If so, this study is about as worthwhile as the first.

Edited by Mr Anonymous
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

You may not understand this country very well, apologies you may be one of the ranters that lives in Europe?

Not today, you moderatly bright person.

Edited by Mister CIA
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5 minutes ago, Amused to Death said:

Private companies probably. How many test for drugs?

What time frame do you anticipate to coordinate this with all private companies and how can you force them all to enact it? Then what for public companies? Then what for the unemployed? Living in a free country is a beautiful thing, forcing our population to take this test though isn't realistic. As this is already widespread, if you aren't testing everyone what is the impact? 

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1 hour ago, Mr Anonymous said:

For one, 60K from the flu is not over an entire year, it's over a 5-6 month season. We might not be all that far away from 60K over a similar amount of time when this is all measured in the end. But yes the 40K over the last 6 weeks is an inescapable truth. Thus why this requires more measures than simply riding it out. The point stands that we write off death in far greater numbers than this all the time.

Also, welcome back @Ranethe and thank you for the continued support. Your making my community reputation numbers look outstanding!

If we did not take the drastic measures we did, the global death toll would be exponentially higher than the flu.  

It’s not a good comparison.  We’ve never seen anything like this.  

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

What time frame do you anticipate to coordinate this with all private companies and how can you force them all to enact it? Then what for public companies? Then what for the unemployed? Living in a free country is a beautiful thing, forcing our population to take this test though isn't realistic. As this is already widespread, if you aren't testing everyone what is the impact? 

Your argument is with the scientific community, not me. I'm not chasing down this strawman argument.

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1 minute ago, zoonation said:

If we did not take the drastic measures we did, the global death toll would be exponentially higher than the flu.  

It’s not a good comparison.  We’ve never seen anything like this.  

That's why I never made it a comparison. It was perspective. Something greatly lacking in this crisis.

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Just now, Amused to Death said:

Your argument is with the scientific community, not me. I'm not chasing down this strawman argument.

I'm asking you to explain your plan since you want to stay shutdown and claiming people against that are responsible for death. I've laid out the issues I see with what you want to wait for and am open to you explaining how that's going to work. If you can't explain how it's going to work then we should all focus on how we are going to adapt than rant about a pie in the sky scenario that won't happen. That's just my opinion. 

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12 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

What part are you struggling with?

Ranting about testing is a waste of time unless we have a solution?

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Testing is a waste of time because people won't listen?  Burn it all down I guess.  

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

And we're not even discussing the growing number of people throwing caution to the wind in defiance of the current stay at home and social distancing measures. Another fatal flaw in simple blanket controls. If these people are going to start treating this like it's no big deal than we better start coming up with some better plans.

Fines, repeated if necessary.  Followed by arrests for failure to appear.  Not that complicated.

Rule of Law.  Equal Justice.  No One's Above the Law.

Many people are saying it's time COVID provides an opportunity to get back to the basics.

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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1 minute ago, Daywalker said:

Ranting about testing is a waste of time unless we have a solution?

I wouldn't call it a waste of time but it sure has become one side's new talking point. It seems like years ago that the goalpost rested at the intersection of hospital capacity and a flattened curve. I can't wait to see what the new standard will be once Abbott Labs has their test kits delivered in mass.

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2 minutes ago, Daywalker said:

Ranting about testing is a waste of time unless we have a solution?

How are you going to force people for get tested, break it down for us? If you want things to stay closed for this testing you want then explain how it will work....simple question. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

I wouldn't call it a waste of time but it sure has become one side's new talking point. It seems like years ago that the goalpost rested at the intersection of hospital capacity and a flattened curve. I can't wait to see what the new standard will be once Abbott Labs has their test kits delivered in mass.

Everyone assumed the government would come up with a Manhattan Project in order to make cotton swabs.  Guess they were wrong.

Edited by Daywalker

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5 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

I'm asking you to explain your plan since you want to stay shutdown and claiming people against that are responsible for death. I've laid out the issues I see with what you want to wait for and am open to you explaining how that's going to work. If you can't explain how it's going to work then we should all focus on how we are going to adapt than rant about a pie in the sky scenario that won't happen. That's just my opinion. 

I do not need a plan. I'm putting my faith in the greatest country in the world to have something better than "let the old people die".

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

How are you going to force people for get tested, break it down for us? If you want things to stay closed for this testing you want then explain how it will work....simple question. 

So you are saying testing is impossible?

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1.  Everyone wants to get tested.

2.  You will need a note to go back to work.  Maybe one each month.  Employees are required to provide doctor notes all the time before they can come back to work.

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4 minutes ago, Daywalker said:

So you are saying testing is impossible?

Most jobs these days test for drugs. How hard could it be?

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5 minutes ago, Daywalker said:

So you are saying testing is impossible?

Testing is great and I hope it improves, if you can lay out for me how sheltering in place for more tests is going to fix everything I’m still waiting to hear it. 

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1 minute ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Most jobs these days test for drugs. How hard could it be?

Are you serious?

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35 minutes ago, Mr Anonymous said:

Good strawman because absolutely no one is saying that. Keep ignoring the common sense measures and living on the extremes.

Then I must be imagining things, because I've seen several people in this very thread state they expect things opening within the next month. Look, if you want to ignore facts and history, that's your choice. I won't do that. We've already seen people flock to Florida beaches, and I'd bet dollars to donuts that if anyone there was sick, there will be a lot of people sick in about 2 weeks.

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2 minutes ago, John Blutarsky said:

Are you serious?

You don’t think a couple guys named Daywalker and Leroy Hoard can get the whole country on board with taking the test?
 

Communist China can’t do this but they got it. 

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12 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

How are you going to force people for get tested, break it down for us? If you want things to stay closed for this testing you want then explain how it will work....simple question. 

The US economy can't reopen without widespread coronavirus testing. Getting there will take a lot of work and money

Health experts also say the country needs a related and equally robust program to trace the people who have had contact with infected people, to avoid seeing those contacts themselves spread the coronavirus to others.

There are only about 120,000 samples or so being tested each day for the coronavirus in the United States, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Experts say that millions of people will have to be tested each day, even as many as 20 million to 30 million people, before the nation can return to a semblance of economic normality.

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